Taiwan is actually increasingly leaning toward China, he said, and the “status quo,” as perceived by Taiwanese, was “problematic” and “an illusion,” given that China is growing ever stronger and Taiwan is increasingly dependent on China economically.Stanton was kind enough to permit several of us to post it on the web. Below the READ MORE link is the speech in its entirety. Great job, sir.
Taiwanese cannot unilaterally decide the development of cross-strait ties, Stanton said at the annual meeting of the World Taiwanese Congress in Taipei, adding that how much patience China shows toward maintaining the “status quo” remains a question if bilateral relations do not proceed the way China sees fit.
A Taipei Times editorial argues that the US timed the announcement of the possibility of a visa waiver for Taiwan to support the KMT in the election. The editorial also points out that the KMT in its usual despicable manner, failed to tell the public that the initiative for the program began with the DPP:What was left unmentioned was the fact that it was the DPP that got the ball rolling on the visa-waiver program, with former envoy to the US Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) and his staff at Taiwan’s representative office in Washington doing the groundwork in 2007. A few more years were required before Taiwan could meet all the requirements for the nomination and admittedly some of the necessary adjustments were made under the Ma administration. However, in the end, the nomination is as much a victory for the DPP as it is for the KMT — in fact, it represents a victory for all Taiwanese.AIT officials had to know what they were doing when they made the announcement in the middle of a hotly -contested election. On the other hand, perhaps they were afraid if they waited until after the election they'd be accused of helping the DPP. Or if they waited a week, of being accused of timing the announcement even more closely to the end of the election to help the KMT. Or they knew the KMT would make the announcement and wanted to pre-empt an even more partisan announcement on the KMT part. The AIT announcement did note that AIT did not favor either party.
However, by failing to take the necessary precautions against the inevitable politicization of the announcement, Washington has played into the KMT’s hands, or possibly cooperated with it.
In its press conference on Thursday, the AIT said an agreement on tightening immigration controls against felons and terrorists was the final step before the US could put Taiwan on the list. That agreement, we were told, had been signed the previous day.
Maybe the timing is just a coincidence — and coincidences do happen — but it is very convenient for the KMT that all this happened when it did. The US government could have waited until after the Jan. 14 election to make the announcement, a postponement that in no way would have hurt the KMT or helped the DPP.
One really wonders why, within 24 hours of Taipei signing the document on terrorists and felons, the AIT would rush into making the announcement on the visa-waiver program, especially as Taiwan’s adhesion to the program remains contingent on months of careful evaluation by the US Department of Homeland Security. There simply was no justification for making the announcement at such a highly charged juncture in the presidential election.
Despite the nomination being the result of hard work by both the DPP and KMT administrations, the timing of the announcement now allows the Ma camp to silence some of its detractors, who had accused it of failing to secure anything of substance from the US over the past three-and-a-half years, despite relations between the two allies allegedly being their “closest” in years.
Not anymore, and the KMT has appropriated this success as if the DPP had nothing to do with it. Fool-hardy or malicious, inadvertent or by design, the US has taken sides in next month’s elections.
Lots of stuff to comment on...The lead article the Chinese Communist Party newspaper Global Times on Tuesday contained an alarming call for a declaration of war against Vietnam and Philippines, two nations that in recent weeks launched the loudest protests against China’s sweeping maritime sovereignty claims over the South China Sea.This is not the first time, but whether or not it was meant as a call for war, it can't help but send a signal that calling for war is ok. A longtime Taiwan observer remarked that the late Jim Lilley said once that China always telegraphs its intentions.... [article is here i think]
Headlined “The Time to Use Force Has Arrived in the South China Sea; Let’s Wage Wars on the Philippines and Vietnam to Prevent More Wars,” the article was written by Long Tao, a likely pseudonym literally translated as “The Dragon’s Teaching.” The name refers to the third chapter of the famous Chinese ancient military classic “Six Secret Military Teachings” that, among other things, promotes the idea that the best way to establish military awesomeness is to kill the highest-ranked dissenters.
On the Internet, Chinese who have read foreign reviews of the film or seen the film's advertisements have slammed it, claiming that the "culture of headhunting" the film shows the aborigines practicing is "barbaric," and calling the scenes of tribespeople's attacks on the Japanese "cruel killings."In a private discussion my friend Jerome Keating remarked that the reason the Chinese dislike it so much is that it accurately depicts the plain historical fact that these areas were never under Qing control. The first government to control the whole island was in fact the Japanese.
The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) sent an unprecedented five officials, including AIT Director William Stanton, to the DPP’s 25th anniversary reception, Wu told reporters on the sidelines of the celebration at the W Hotel in Taipei’s Xinyi District (信義).The US was apparently attempting to show it isn't taking sides. Great move, AIT, my heartfelt thanks.
The move represented the US’ respect for the DPP, Wu said, adding that he had never seen more than two US officials at similar events.
It appeared as though the US was trying to “balance out” the negative impact caused by a Sept. 15 article by London’s Financial Times which was seen as an attempt to influence the election in favor of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), he said.
The article quoted an unnamed Washington official — believed to be National Security Adviser Tom Donilon — as saying that DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) had left US President Barack Obama’s administration with “distinct concerns” about her ability to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait.
On the eve of Confucius’ birthday on September 28, “Taiwan Go, Go, Go!,” President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) re-election campaign office released its fourth television advertisement, highlighting the study of the Four Books and Five Classics (四書五經), classics of Confucian teachings. The television advertisement depicts a Confucian classics reading class at a Confucius temple, a strong symbol of Confucianism, and describes Taiwan’s success in promoting the reading of Confucian classics on the Mainland in order to demonstrate Taiwan’s efforts to champion Chinese culture.This is a rather strange topic considering that Confucianism is not all that popular -- the gov'ts attempt to re-impose Confucianism in local schools is not at all well-accepted. I think it is another clue to the ideological identity of Ma, who is a pro-China ideologue, variety ROC. Those of you inclined to doubt that might want to take a close look at his speech last year for Retrocession Day (a blatant lie itself). The text is one long wallow in ROC mythology, and nearly every paragraph contains major historical falsehoods. As the friend who sent it to me pointed out, it represents what Ma says when he is talking to like-minded people when he thinks no one else is listening.
Yin Wei (殷瑋), spokesman of Ma’s re-election campaign office, stressed that “Taiwan is an exporter of universal values and also the helmsman of Chinese culture, which we need to promote to the world.
I didn’t want to get too far outside my lane at the event, but now that there’s a writeup in the public record, I wanted to comment on one suggestion that Joe Bosco made in his remarks: that the United States should make a formal commitment to defend Taiwan.One hears this bogeyman again and again: Taiwan might declare formal independence. I am moved to wonder at the concrete mechanics of how such a thing could occur. Half the nation is pro-KMT; the military, police and bureaucratic officialdom are pro-KMT; the recent changes to the referendum and constitutional change laws make changes all but impossible; the legislature is run by the KMT and will be for the forseeable future; the President lacks the power, etc etc etc. Of the events likely to perturb things in the Taiwan Strait, a formal declaration of independence is the least likely. Does Washington really get that? Or does being a Taiwan expert mean only having to understand what other Beltway insiders think?
Bosco argued that Washington should do so and could simply wave off the PRC, informing them that “prudent choice for China” would be to “learn to get along with its neighbors and respect the international norm.” (It was not clear from his remarks whether there would be any limit to that commitment or whether Bosco would use the U.S. military to defend Taiwan even if conflict was precipitated by, say, a formal declaration of independence in Taipei.)
Regarding de jure independence, Bush said he has found that this choice for Taiwan’s future might possibly still exist, but it has been constrained.China's military threat raises the issue of how a "declaration of independence" is defined. It is not difficult to imagine a situation where a DPP President simply reiterates the formulaic independence of an ROC-administered Taiwan and China using that as a pretext for an attack that was already long-planned. There's lots of wiggle room for interpretations about independence, and Washington is focusing on only the lowest probability outcome. Ultimately, it is Beijing that will decide whether Taiwan has declared independence.
“My conclusion is very simple: That 15 years after the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, China effectively deters Taiwan from making this choice — de jure independence. It builds up its military power in a significant way and is able when necessary to stimulate the United States to get involved in this issue,” he said.
“I would like to say that political leaders need to work together to foster a better consensus on Taiwan’s core interests and how to protect them. As long as the political system remaines polarized and divided, that consensus cannot be built, and Taiwan cannot face the challenges of the cross-strait relations in an appropriate way,” Bush said.The problem is the public's own view above: "we're independent" appears to me to be a major cause of the political divide. The Taiwan identity takes in the Blue-Green divide as part of itself; because people feel that they are somehow, hazily, independent, they feel safe voting for the pro-China party even when they are pro-independence, as most locals are. The real issue is getting Taiwanese to understand that the rest of the world does not share this breezy, undefined, not clearly explored assurance, something longtime Taiwan observer Robert Sutter noted in his most recent remarks on growing weakness of Taiwan relative to China, and the startling fact that the Taiwan public remains, at least on the surface, largely undisturbed by this phenomenon.
Many Taiwanese who favor preserving Taiwan’s democracy and its de facto independence from China hang their hope on a victory by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in January’s presidential election. A DPP victory is indispensable to Taiwan’s freedom, because a defeat would be regarded as an endorsement from a majority of voters of the KMT’s unification agenda. However, a victory by the DPP, while necessary, would not be sufficient to preserve the “status quo.” The KMT could still sign a peace accord with Beijing between January and May next year, thus formally surrendering to the PRC. If a victorious DPP refuses to honor the accord China could launch a military assault on Taiwan to coerce capitulation.Brrrr..... this isn't very likely, but what would the US do? Especially if the DPP could be painted as disturbing the peace, changing the status quo (notice how that term has completely dropped out of cross-strait analysis since Ma came to power?) or declaring independence?
That's a positive note. Burghardt took pains to point out that such actions are not compatible with the "warming relations" that the CCP and KMT are currently experiencing. Meanwhile Kyodo News (behind paywall) reported on another positive development....American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Raymond Burghardt on Tuesday said Chinese pressure on Missouri Governor Jay Nixon to cancel a visit to Taiwan was “unacceptable” and inconsistent with Beijing’s claims it sought to improve ties with Taipei.
Nixon last month scrapped plans to visit Taiwan after a Chicago-based Chinese diplomat warned the trip could imperil a project by China to turn St Louis airport into a hub for Chinese cargo in the US.
Over the previous two years, eight US governors have visited Taiwan.
Speaking to reporters in Taipei, Burghardt called China’s actions “absolutely unacceptable.”
The United States refused to issue a joint communique after last week's summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao and kept Taiwan's interests in mind during the negotiations for a joint statement, the head of the de facto U.S. mission to Taiwan said Tuesday.Burghardt said that China had wanted a communique loaded with the phrase "core interests" but the US had refused to have any part of such a thing.
Speaking to reporters in Taipei after being briefed by U.S. officials who took part in the negotiations, Raymond Burghardt said the U.S. side ''purposefully...constructed a document that in no way violates any of Taiwan's interests.''
''We kept Taiwan in mind,'' he said. ''The result is a document that in no way breaks any new ground on any issues that would be of concern to Taiwan.''
U.S. support for Taiwan is one of the biggest obstacles to closer relations between the United States and China, which considers the island a breakaway province and claims a right to retake it by force if necessary.There are two problems with this presentation. First, US support for Taiwan is not an obstacle to closer relations between Washington and Beijing. Rather, it is Beijing's desire to annex Taiwan and its threats to maim and murder Taiwanese in order to do so that are the problem. Second, even if we handed them Taiwan, as Beijing's constant flow of new claims and intensification of old ones shows, they'd simply say some other desired objective was the obstacle to closer relations.
Although economic relations between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan are warming, China still insists — and most major nations, including the United States, agree — that there is only one China and that Taiwan (which calls itself the Republic of China) is a part of it.I wrote them several days ago, and so did others. *sigh* It is not difficult to find this information on the internet. Apparently people get confused since both Beijing and Washington use "One China" to designate their policies even though they are completely different policies. AP's Washington office has twice said the US considers Taiwan to be part of China in the last year alone....
William Stanton, head of the American Institute in Taiwan, the US' officially unofficial representative office on The Beautiful Island, said in an interview on Friday with UDN that....It was good that Stanton reminded readers of the pro-KMT UDN that the people of Taiwan should control how fast and how far engagement with China must go. Thanks! In the AIT summary on its website that is also mentioned. Stanton also spoke on the long-standing visa waiver issue:Continued engagement is the best guarantee for maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, said William Stanton, director of the Taipei Office of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), in an interview with a local newspaper on Thursday.
....
In the interview, Stanton reaffirmed that the US welcomes cross-strait engagement. However, he added, as Taiwan is a democratic country, it is up to the people of Taiwan to decide the speed and direction of such engagement.
Saying that quite a few Taiwanese people remain wary about the cross-strait detente, evidenced by the results of a series of local opinion surveys, Stanton said it is an issue that Taiwan’s current and future governments have to address.
Because Taiwanese citizens don't have to apply in person, the system can be gamed by Chinese who want to use Taiwan passports to enter the US. This lack of security in the application process is a big problem for the US.Nevertheless, he said that the US is now in a dilemma over the issue because, while the US truly intends to grant Republic of China passport holders visa waiver privileges, it also hopes Taiwan can live up to the conditions set forth by the program.
Noting that the VWP program has many requirements, Stanton said the major hindrance to Taiwan’s inclusion was its failure to demand that its citizens apply in person for their passports.
The F-16s look like they are out of the question. Ironically the affected systems are part of the $6.4 billion dollar sale earlier this year that had China tying its underwear in knots.The affected purchases include 60 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters, which were part of a $6.4 billion arms sale that set back U.S.-Chinese relations when it was announced in January.
Ruling party legislator Lin Yu-fang has issued a statement saying Taiwan also wants to postpone the purchase of six Patriot anti-missile batteries. In each case, delivery of the weapons would be delayed by three years.
Lin cited production schedules in the United States as well as Taiwan’s budget problems. The island is facing its third consecutive budget deficit.
First, the Taipei Times report on the snub of Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit to China:On Thursday, Gates told US reporters in Singapore he believed it was the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) — rather than the Beijing civilian leadership — that was responsible for cooling relations and nixing an invitation for him to visit.Gates blamed the Chinese military, which, it is said, is hawkish and wants to challenge the US. But at Foreign Policy columnist Josh Rogin says the snub raises questions about China ties (read the whole thing, it's good):
A CNN producer reported after talking with Gates that the secretary had been “dismissive” of Chinese protests regarding sales of US weapons to Taiwan.
......
Earlier this week, Pentagon officials said Beijing gave no reason for not inviting Gates, but they “assumed” it was part of a continuing protest about arms sales to Taiwan.
Since then, US government sources have told the Taipei Times that the Gates snub may not just be a protest about past arms sales, but a warning that relations would deteriorate sharply if the US agreed to sell the 66 F-16C/D fighters that Taipei wants.
American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chairman Raymond Burghardt, who is currently visiting Taipei, said when asked about the possibility of an F-16 sale that Washington was “considering it carefully.”
After meeting with Burghardt on Thursday, Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) told reporters that he got the feeling that Washington was very likely to give a green light to the sale.
U.S. officials admit privately that the the Gates snub is a bad sign, one that contradicts the impression they had coming off the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that saw more than 200 U.S. officials travel to China just two weeks ago. Officials said that they still hold out hope that Gates will be granted a visit soon, but their confidence about China's willingness to improve military-to-military relations is quickly eroding, and the road ahead is far from clear.Randall Shriver's comments on the problem of mil-mil relations in that piece hit the target:
"Nearly all of the aspects of the relationship between the United States and China are moving forward in a positive direction, with the sole exception of the military-to-military relationship ... the PLA [People's Liberation Army] is significantly less interested in this relationship than the political leadership of China." Gates said Thursday in a rare open rebuke of the Chinese military. Gates made the remark en route to Singapore, where defense officials from all the Pacific countries except for China are convening for the annual Shangri-la Dialogue.
The conventional wisdom in Washington is that China is still protesting U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. But an administration official told The Cable that it's just not that simple. There is a struggle inside the Chinese Communist Party between those who want to more forcefully confront the U.S. on a range of issues, mostly within the PLA, and those who genuinely seek better ties, and the faction favoring confrontation is gaining ground.
"The Chinese are seeking leverage wherever they think they may find it to persuade us to curtail or stop completely U.S. arms sales to Taiwan -- and our actions surely give them the impression they have leverage by holding out on mil-mil contacts," said Randall Schriver, former deputy assistant secretary of State for East Asia.The irony of hitting the military is profound -- recall that the Pentagon, especially the Navy, has been an ardent suitor of China. Hence the Chinese -- as so often -- are crapping on their benefactor.
Due to technical problems, China's Air Force has refused to accept 16 J-11B fighters manufactured by the Shenyang Aircraft Corp based in Liaoning Province. China is believed to have developed the new fighter based on technology from the Russian Sukhoi Su-27 fighter, suggesting the firm may have failed to properly employ Russian technology. “When the Air Force was checking them up for delivery, J-11B had abnormal vibration after taking off. As a result, the Air Force refused to accept the aircraft,” Japan’s Kyodo News quoted a Chinese source as saying. The J-11B was reportedly not chosen for exhibition at the October 5th National Day military parade due to doubts about the domestically manufactured fighter......other modern fighters, such as the J-10, are coming online. China is also reported to have developed advanced “meter-wave radar technology capable of detecting stealth aircraft in actual combat,” the Beijing-owned Ta Kung Pao reports (via China Reform Monitor).
As the Ma Administration prepares to place Taiwan firmly in China's orbit, it appears to be adopting remarkably different strategies toward the island's traditional patrons, Japan and the US. The US is treated as the wife who must be given all due proprieties in order to placate her even as Ma conducts a torrid affair with China, while Japan is being tossed aside, the occasional one-night stand whose association is now an embarrassment to the new order.Japan's top envoy to Taiwan, Makoto Saito, resigned as director of the Interchange Association, Tokyo's de facto embassy in Taipei, association officials said Tuesday.The paper also notes:
Saito quit for "personal reasons," the officials said on condition of anonymity. They did not elaborate.
Saito's resignation comes amid a tiff with Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, who has been reluctant to meet with Saito or allow him to meet with senior administration officials for some eight months over a comment the envoy made earlier this year.
On May 1, Saito angered the Ma administration by referring to Taiwan's status in the international community as "unresolved" in remarks at a Taiwanese academic symposium.
Besides virtually freezing out Saito from high-level contacts, Taiwan has been tough with Japan under Ma's leadership.At the time, right after Ma's election, the affray over the incursion into the Senkakus even then seemed artificial.....the Senkakus, after all, had been the subject of Ma's thesis.
Shortly after Ma took office last year, Taiwan's then prime minister even threatened war with Japan over a collision between a Taiwanese fishing boat and a Japan Coast Guard vessel in disputed waters claimed by the two sides but controlled by Japan.
But where the movie appeals to the Taiwanese administration, the reality of bilateral relations misses the mark, as gaffes and hurt feelings have abounded between Taipei and Tokyo since Ma took office last year — a reality spurring him to bring into play his vision through politically charged sites, figures — and even cartoons.This drew a sharp rebuke from the TECRO office in Tokyo, which stated:
Hirsch's statement that "while Ma has wooed China, restarted formal negotiations across the Taiwan Strait and signed trade agreements with Beijing, Taipei's relations with Tokyo have mostly stagnated" is also groundless. President Ma has always insisted on a "three-no's" policy on China: no unification, no independence and no use of force. His current negotiations with China are based not on political but rather economic objectives. Taiwan's signing of trade agreements with Beijing will not affect Taiwan's intentions to improve relations with Japan.TECRO did indeed open the office Dec 1, in Sapporo, which KMT Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng attributed to Saito's hard work at improving Japan-Taiwan relations. Note the presence of the tiresome party line that politics is not part of the trade agreements with China. Does anyone out there actually buy that?Furthermore, Hirsch's mention that the delay in opening a new office in Hokkaido is "a sign that the Ma administration's interest in Japan is flagging" is totally inaccurate. Taiwan and Japan share fundamental values such as democracy, a free market and rule of law.
For 37 years we have made clear that "acknowledges" does not mean recognize, does not mean accept, does not mean anything else except acknowledges. On a number of occasions in the past 37 years there have been efforts to press the United States to take a more specific position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan, or to define Taiwan in political terms. We have never agreed to do so.Public reiteration of the US position, which is identical to Japan's, that the status of Taiwan remains unresolved, yet nary a whimper from the bloviators in the current ruling party.
The tabloid Apple Daily ran a couple of stories today on -- wait for it -- an alleged AIT guy who had sex with a local girl (story). Imagine it -- two consenting adults boinking in the privacy of his place. That just never happens in Taiwan, and is certainly news when it does.
AP reports...The United States on Thursday named a career diplomat with wide-ranging experience in East Asia to be the new head of its de facto embassy in Taiwan.Previous Taipei Times articles on Stanton here and blog post here. Take all gossip about Stanton's political stances with a massive grain of NaCl. The previous AIT head, Steve Young, has done a bang up job, and there's no reason Stanton won't as well.
The American Institute in Taiwan said William Stanton, currently the No. 2 U.S. diplomat in South Korea, will replace outgoing institute head Stephen Young in August.
A moment of silence for Bo Yang, the famed mainlander writer, critic, and gadfly jailed under the KMT, who died yesterday at the age of 88, of lung disease. If you haven't laughed your way through his satirical collection of writing on Chinese culture called The Ugly Chinaman, you should....(Wiki on Bo Yang)Washington will continue to back Taiwan militarily while it pushes for peace talks with China, the de facto US envoy here assured incoming president Ma Ying-jeou Tuesday.Stephen Young, director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), said the United States would continue to supply weapons to Taipei.
"We also expect our traditional close security cooperation to continue, as we are convinced American support for Taiwan's defence gives its democratic leaders the confidence to explore closer ties with its big neighbour without fear of pressure or coercion," he said in an address to the American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham) here.
Taiwan has been governed separately since the end of a 1949 civil war, but Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade should the island declare formal independence, and has targeted it with more than 1,000 ballistic missiles.
Washington has been the island's leading arms supplier, despite switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
But Taipei-Washington ties were frustrated by cross-strait tensions under the outgoing pro-independence government and Ma, of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang, has vowed to improve relations.
This year marks the first time that U.S. officials have attended the exercises amid years of requests from Washington to Taipei to observe them, the press release said.''For the sake of mutual benefit and strengthening bilateral exchanges...the council...agreed to limited participation by the U.S. in this year's exercises,'' the release said.
However, U.S. officials were not allowed to attend a practice ''crisis response meeting'' by top Taiwanese leaders, including President Chen Shui-bian, it added.
The United States and Japan, although not diplomatic allies of Taiwan, do include protecting the self-ruled island as part of their shared strategic goals. Tuesday's participation by U.S. officials, reports said, reveal Taiwan's plan to protect both AIT and Japanese officials if China were to invade.
Asked for comment Thursday, Ryoji Takagaki, a spokesman for Japan's de facto embassy in Taiwan, the Interchange Association, said he had ''not heard of such a plan.''
Washington and Tokyo do not station military personnel in Taipei to protect their missions given the lack of official ties with the island.
“We are convinced American support for Taiwan's defense gives its democratic leaders the confidence to explore closer ties with its big neighbor without fear of pressure or coercion,” Young said.
Therese Shaheen, former director of our officially unofficial representative body in Taiwan, the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), is the subject of an article in Mercury News....
n the world's diplomatic stage, politically isolated Taiwan has scant influence. But in the global tech economy, the island of 23 million is a heavyweight, said former senior State Department representative to Taiwan Therese Shaheen.
"You look at the back of laptops and they have China, Malaysia, Mexico written on them - whoever puts in the last screw," Shaheen said in an interview. But Taiwanese engineers and companies provide the high-level design and production technology to ensure Best Buy shelves are full of the latest gadgets.
The blunt-speaking former diplomat is scheduled to speak tonight at the annual dinner of the Bay Area Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce in Palo Alto.
From 2002 to 2004, Shaheen, who has extensive international business experience, was chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan. The AIT represents U.S. interests in Taiwan in absence of a U.S. embassy. The United States, like most other countries, does not officially recognize Taiwan.
She has become something of a hero in Taiwan after being fired by the Bush administration for publicly congratulating the island on a successful presidential election. Her congratulations drew harsh complaints from Beijing, which regards the island as part of China.
Likewise, her post was a diplomatic minefield. Shaheen said she was forced to resign after she complimented Taiwan on a successful presidential election in 2004, and congratulated Chen and Vice President Annette Lu on their re-election. She said the public statement had been thoroughly vetted and approved by the Bush administration. But a TV crew that interviewed her sent the video to China.
"By midnight, it was all over China," Shaheen recalled, adding that high-level Chinese authorities immediately called the U.S. ambassador in Beijing. "It was like in the Middle Ages, and I had blasphemed. They were screaming and pulling their hair out. I got fired."
Shaheen now heads U.S. Asia International, a consulting firm that specializes in mergers and acquisitions and entering overseas markets. She said the next president of Taiwan - either the Democratic Progressive Party's Frank Hsieh or the Kuomintang's Ma Ying-jeou - could lessen tensions between China and Taiwan. There could, for instance, be direct flights between the two. At present, business executives must first fly to Hong Kong or Macao before going to mainland China.
I had some trouble believing that KMT Vice Presidential candidate Vincent Siew would meet with Raymond Burghardt, Chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), our officially unofficial representative body here in Taiwan, and tell Burghardt all kinds of crazy things about what the DPP was planning to do, but confirmation arrived yesterday from both the American side and the KMT side. The KMT yesterday held a press conference to announce the list, putting a brave face on inevitability. A-gu has the complete list, ranging from batshit insane claims like the DPP plans to assassinate its own candidate, to outrages like accusing Chen Shui-bian of running over his own wife to generate sympathy, to things that are normal, like making videos about candidates."In the conversation with Siew about all the `dirty tricks' issues, Siew mentioned all of them to Burghardt. Siew told Burghardt that these were the rumors that were floating about Taipei. Burghardt did not know any of the stuff that Siew was telling him," the official said.
Burghardt did not initiate any conversation about the dirty tricks, and at one point in the meeting the AIT head did not understand what Siew was referring to, and had to ask Siew to write the Chinese characters for "dirty tricks" (aobu,
奧步 ) so he could better understand Siew's points, the US official said.Siew brought up stories about possible DPP "plans" for assassinations, disturbances and incidents in the Taiwan Strait, all of which Burghardt "had never heard before," the official said.
The official was especially concerned about suggestions that Burghardt expressed Washington's preference for the KMT over the DPP.
"He would never say anything like that. It is simply not true. That's complete baloney. Burghardt would never say anything remotely like that," the official said.
"We don't side with the KMT. That's why Burghardt met with Bi-khim. He's closer to her than he is to Vincent, frankly," the official said.
The official said that the topics brought up during the meeting as reported in the Taiwanese media were basically accurate -- but that statements attributed to Burghardt were not.
Who causes all the trouble in US-Taiwan relations? According Kathrin Hille of the Financial Times, whose reports on Taiwan have been colored by a strong anti-Chen streak (for example), it is our old pal Mad Chen© ("Watch out! He can start a war at any moment!"). First she briefs us on President Chen's pledge not to launch missiles at China without notifying the US first:Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's president, has pledged to consult the US before firing missiles at China in any potential future conflict, in an attempt to mollify the island's sole military ally following criticism of Mr Chen for ratcheting up tensions.Note that the article, instead of writing "following accusations that Chen has been ratcheting up tensions..." it reports "...for ratcheting up tensions" as if it were an established fact that Chen ratchets up tensions. I've discussed that particular canard, Chen the Ratcheter, here. And let's point out again, for the umpteenth time, that 'tensions' are created by China's policy decisions to get upset at Taiwan's democracy in action. Needless to say, no hint of nuance shall ever cross these pages. Similarly, she follows:
Defence experts called Mr Chen's pledge a political rather than practical move but said it was a reflection of the current state of relations between Washington and Taipei. "He has clearly been under a lot of pressure from the US recently," said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief of Defense News, a specialist publication.
US-Taiwan relations have soured in recent years, with Washington feeling Taipei was making insufficient effort to strengthen its defensive capability while the pro-independence Mr Chen and his government pushed a policy agenda that raised tensions with China.
But the lack of interaction goes beyond one-off, questionable decisions such as that. Military officers at the one-star level or above, or the civilian equivalent, are not permitted to meet in Taiwan with their counterparts. While there is serious contingency planning at high levels on both sides, senior U.S. planners and decision makers do not interact with their Taiwan counterparts. The dialogue instead is conducted by proxy at lower levels of government. Even simple meetings are less frequent in recent years. As late as 2003, State and Defense Department officials--albeit at the mid-grade deputy assistant secretary level--were permitted to meet regularly with senior Taiwanese officials including the foreign minister outside of Washington, D.C. That contact no longer takes place. At the highest levels, the U.S.-Taiwan relationship would have to get much closer to even describe it as "arms-length." No cabinet-level officials have met their Taiwanese counterparts since the Clinton administration.
Meanwhile, Congress is, by and large, sounding positive notes on Taiwan issues. The Taipei Times reported the other day on a Congressional Panel's recommendation that the Bush Administration sell F-16s to Taiwan:A copy of the commission's draft report was obtained by the Taipei Times. While the report was not yet final, any changes to the latest draft were expected to be only minor "tweaking" for grammar, usage and such, according to a commission source.
In another recommendation, the commission urged the administration to help Taiwan take part in the WHO and international bodies that do not require statehood.
But at the last minute it pulled back on recommendations in an earlier draft that asked the administration to consider Taiwan's request for a free-trade agreement and to encourage Taiwan and China to boost transportation and other cross-strait links.
"The Commission recommends that Congress encourage the administration to continue to work with Taiwan to modernize its military, enhance Taiwan's capabilities for operating jointly with US and allied forces, and make available to Taiwan the defensive weapons it needs for its military forces," the draft recommendation says.
The recommendation comes at a time when the Bush administration is balking at Taiwan's request for 66 advanced F-16 fighter aircraft. It echoes a resolution passed overwhelmingly by the House of Representatives earlier this month prodding the administration to stop blocking the sale.
Stephen Young, the head of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), our officially unofficial representative body in Taiwan, once again said that the UN referendum was a bad thing.American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Stephen Young said yesterday the US government does not support Taiwan's UN membership bid.
"The US government's stance is clear," he said. "We do not support it because it is unnecessary."
Young made the remarks in Mandarin before attending a Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation event in Taipei yesterday morning.
Asked whether he supported the government's torch relay in support of the UN membership campaign using the name "Taiwan," Young skirted the question by saying he does not jog anymore because he has week knees and that he only climbs Taipei 101 during special events.
In response, Presidential Office spokesman David Lee (李南陽 ) said that joining the UN using the name "Taiwan" reflects public opinion and is the right of Taiwanese. Lee said the administration would continue to communicate with the US government through various channels to facilitate Washington's understanding of the initiative.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) said he respected Young's view. "[Stephen Young] is a representative of a foreign country. We respect him," Hsieh said when asked for comment.
What Young said was "not news" because the US government has been saying the same thing for the past few months, Hsieh said.
"Young was just expressing the US position, though some may have played up his words, [perhaps] because they coincided with the torch relay," Hsieh said.
Hsieh said the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) had never respected Young, pointing to their reaction to his calling for the passage of a budget request for an arms procurement package from the US.
"Young urged us to pass the budget, but the KMT never listened to him. Now the KMT refer to Young's comments [yesterday] as an imperial edict. It's all about politics," Hsieh said.
Wynn also addressed China's relations with Taiwan, which broke away from the mainland after a civil war in 1949.
"Taiwan is like Maine, or Washington. It was theirs (China's). And it got taken away. It's like Hawaii. And they want it back. And most of the people in Taiwan want to go back."
Taiwan's elected president, Chen Shui-bian, has said he is against reunification with the mainland and has claimed China aims to take the island by force by 2015. China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.
Wynn said his comments about Taiwan were prompted by his conversations with businesspeople who operate in both jurisdictions.
"Taiwan will join China ... on some terms yet to be defined," he told the conference. "There's an amateur opinion from a casino operator."
Had a good time at The Shannon on the 12th, thanks to all the new faces for coming out....hope to see more of you next time. Jerome Keating sent this around about AIT's film programs
Veteran military correspondent Wendell Minnick chronicles accusations that the US has a double standard on the Taiwan weapons purchase:Young also criticized Taiwan's recent announcement that it is developing a land-attack cruise missile (LACM) capable of hitting China."The United States feels that the focus should be on defensive, and not offensive, weapons. ... In fact, we think Taiwan should be placing its emphasis on, its missile defense," he said.
China has approximately 800 to 900 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, and defense analysts here argue that six batteries of PAC-3s will do little in the event of a saturation missile attack from China.
Local analysts are complaining that Young grumbles that Taiwan does not take defense seriously because it does not want to buy U.S.-made weapons, but at the same time criticizes its development of a LACM.
On the 'offensive missiles,' I have to say that Taiwan knows well regarding the utility of LACM and possible consequences in a contingency across the Strait, and the inability of the U.S. to stop or dissuade China's missile buildup," said Alexander Huang, a senior associate of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies who lives in Taipei.
"Taiwan's development of offensive capability, in addition to hardening and infrastructure protection, is one of the investments aiming to disrupting or complicating China's war planning," he said."The LACM may not be a provocation, but it can be seen as an indigenous effort in defense modernization, and a reflection of Taiwan's will in strengthening her homeland defense."
Arthur Ding, a cross-strait military affairs expert at the National Chengchi University, argues that Washington uses a double standard in Asia.
Ding points out that South Korea has offensive missiles and Washington does nothing about it.
"This is not the case for Taiwan, and this is why the U.S. is concerned over Taiwan's surface-to-surface missile program," he said."Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see if the U.S. really pressures Taiwan to terminate its surface-to-surface missile program. There is always a gap between 'statement' and 'deed.'"