The Land of the Slow Boiling Frog

The Economist offered a column the other day that compared Taiwan to a frog that is slowly boiling.

One former prime minister of Taiwan gives his island 15-20 years before it is part of China again. Another former minister says Taiwan feels like a frog placed on top of the stove in a pan of cold water. The beauty of this cooking method is held to be that, if the water is heated gently enough, the frog does not think to jump out.

We are not told what political party "the former prime minister of Taiwan" belongs to, so such information cannot be placed in any context. Omissions of context are par for the course in the international media when it writes about Taiwan. Of course, here in Taiwan, almost everyone is a former prime minister...

The magazine also offers this observation:

Taiwanese businessmen love China. The mainland’s charm offensive has at times been subtle. For instance, by offering to open its markets to Taiwanese farm goods, the mainland has undermined traditional DPP support among the island’s southern fruit-growers.

Have fruit exports to China really had such an effect? Fruit exports amount to just 5% of the island's fruit production and more than a third go to Japan, with 12% to Hong Kong. The China market is comparatively minuscule. The real goal of the opening is identified in a Taiwan Review piece from last year:

China appears to be a promising market and currently Taiwan's government imposes no restrictions on the export of agricultural products across the Taiwan Strait. However, Chinese demand for Taiwan's high-priced fruit is extremely limited, and the lack of direct transportation links also hinders developing a market there. China has, according to some reports, been suggesting to Taiwanese fruit growers that they set up in China itself. The government, however, is opposed to this because of the risk of intellectual property theft. Large quantities of both money and effort have been expended on improving both plant stock and growing techniques, and these superior materials could easily be stolen and techniques copied in China, with the possible result that China-grown fruit of Taiwanese varieties could end up replacing Taiwan's own produce in international markets. In 2005 China (not including Hong Kong) accounted for 3 percent of the total value of Taiwan's fruit exports, according to COA statistics.

I'm sure that farmers were switching the KMT left and right, thanks to the impact of that 3% of the 5% of the fruit market. The Mainland Affairs Council noted last October that:

"...Taiwan’s fruit exports to China amounted to only US$2.49 million in the first eight months of 2006, representing just 3.4 percent of total fruit exports. If fruit exports to Hong Kong are also included, the total is US$8.8 million, representing a slight increase of 13.3 percent as compared to the same period in 2005."

Just to put that in perspective, iceberg lettuce sales to Japan last year were worth US$1.2 million. I think our friend the Economist columnist has spent too much time listening to mainland triumphalists, and not enough poring over the numbers.

The article also demonstrates other misunderstandings of Taiwan, including the pro forma nod to Ma Ying-jeou as the favorite for the 2008 race:

Ma Ying-jeou of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), and the presumed favourite for the presidency next spring despite also facing corruption charges (it seems to come with the territory), says he favours seeking an “economic partnership agreement” with China.

Hmmm...and once again, a foreign media outlet fails to call the KMT by its formal English name, the Chinese Nationalist Party. On the whole it is partial to Beijing, and advances a common view, namely that economic closeness must mean political integration:

Taiwan’s economic role ought to be clear. Instead of fretting about the loss of manufacturing to China, the island should be fostering competition in services—design, logistics, finance and so on.

As with Hong Kong, that can be Taiwan’s path to greater prosperity. But also as with Hong Kong, it means being joined ever closer to China, and that process may prove both irreversible and unstoppable.

"Inevitability" is a common pro-Beijing theme -- one that abjures the victim to "Lie down and stop struggling!". History teaches that nations with close linguistic and cultural ties need not become one no matter what the level of economic integration (see history of US and Canada) and will actively resist even if annexed (see history of Ukraine and Russia, Poland and Russia...). The fact is that annexation to China is neither necessary for enjoyment of the economic benefits of close integration, nor inevitable.

It is sad when columnists from democratic states, instead of engaging in a robust, thoughtful, and historically-informed discourse about the island's fate, simply repeat Beijing's claims as if they constituted some repository of wisdom and insight. If Taiwan boils slowly, it is because the international media keep helping Beijing schlep logs for the fire.

[Taiwan] [China]