Foreign Affairs commentator Doug Bandow over at Anti-War has a long essay on the Taiwan situation which he adopts the Mad Chen scenario as its basis for commentary on Taiwan. He recommends:Time may be short. Washington must have an honest talk with Taipei. Taiwan's future is its own, to be decided by the Taiwanese people. But they should not count on America to risk all in their defense. The U.S. must clearly state that it does not intend to back Taiwan's independence aspirations with the American military.
I have to wonder where Mr. Bandow has been for the last twenty years. The US has made this pretty clear, again and again, most recently after General Pace's visit to Beijing this month. I look forward to the day when commentators stop blaming the victim, and focus on Beijing's territorial ambitions as the root of the problem.
[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Taiwan Independence] [Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)]
11 comments:
Michael,
You live in Taiwan, can you take a quick survey of your students on do they believe that "US will come to help Taiwn if China invades?"
It maybe clear to people living in the US that no way in hell we will come to help, however, I think a lot of people think US will do something other than yelling at China.
To Arty,
Yes we often forget that the US will only come to the aid of oil rich countries and not democracies, perhaps you can do a survey for us on why
I don't even have to do a survey and I can tell you why, Jerome. We, US, will only do things in OUR INTERESTS. "Democracy" just a nice general term that we use so it doesn't sound so self-serving. Don't forget, we have over thrown democratically elected governments, supported murderous regimes, and we have also supplied weapons to kill thousands East Timorians. Btw, some people in US still buy the whole democracy speech by our government.
It is good to finally meet an honest man. So many seem bent on lecturing Taiwan on how it is always upsetting matters in the Taiwan Strait.
Out of curiosity's sake, is there anything else you believe in besides "self interest?"
Hi Jerome,
When I saying self interest, I am merely stating a fact on how US government makes its decisions. Of course, most people make decisions based on their interests only such is human nature. When someone telling you that their decisions are based on others, I think you should seriously question his/her motive (of course, there are exceptions but let's say its rare).
I am not blaming either Taiwan or China for the tension created in the Taiwan straight. I am simly pointing to a fact that China has military might (I know there is a debate on it but in reality I think China rank really close to Russia if not US in military technology). Ignoring such fact simply for a idealistic pursuit, Taiwan independence, is probably the stupiest thing a person can do. Do you think when Karl Marx wrote The Manifesto of the Communist Party he intented to have millions of poeple killed and millions more suffered in proverties and diseases?
As for me, I never denied my selfish nature. However, I can tell you that I was a member of National Service Corp (AmeriCorp) and I am also the longest surviving volunteer in a teen homeless shelter for 2 years (generally the volunteers last about 3 months because it is a minimum of 12 hours shift over night).
Btw, if Taiwan want to ever gain independence, it must come in the blessing of China or force China to allow Taiwan independence. I see two ways, one is to play polictical games within China. However, current Taiwan administration is not trust by China so I don't see how it could be done (maybe in the future). Or Taiwan can actually grow some backbones in advancing its on defence technology. I don't see this happening considering it doesn't even pay its scientists that much.
The ones usually go back (the young ones) either can't find a job in US or have some serious performance issues. Btw, that's if you can still find any up and coming Taiwan born US Ph.D. I can give you a good example, National Taiwan University pays about 30k to 35k for their new professors. I made more as a post-doc in US plus all the instrumentation supports. If Taiwan is really that rich, why not spend more money on human resources? Btw, some of the Chinese research institutes have spend large amount of money in hiring over-sea talents, and that will explain why China has built the first experimental fusion reactor before USA, and have young scientists going back because they are getting at least equal pays regardless they are in China or US. Actually, some India companies and institutes are doing the same thing. I know, I know, that Taiwan builds a lot of computers and flat screen TVs but let me ask you, what's Taiwan's next industry? Is the Taiwan government doing anything else except trying to buy our old, used, and retired military equipments and think they will help Taiwan's defence.
Is the Taiwan government doing anything else except trying to buy our old, used, and retired military equipments and think they will help Taiwan's defence.
Arty, you're uninformed. The recent military purchases have been of state of the art Paladin artillery, state of the art Patriot missiles, state of the art P-3C Orion ASW aircraft and totally new submarines that when delivered will be the most advanced conventional subs on earth.
I don't mind if you have opinions, but regurgitation of KMT propaganda will be refuted.
Carry on.
Michael
Michael,
Those P-3C Orion ASW aircraft airplanes and sub-marines are so new we don't even make them any more, and at the cost of 3 times the market price due the fact that the builders have to start from the beginning. Okay to the point, P-3C stopped production in 1995, so I guess it is still state of the art equipment. However, US haven't make a conventional sub since 1959...I don't even exist at that point. So where can US find the submarines, physically or just a modern design for it, when the two countries that are making the best conventional submarines both stated that they will have nothing to do with it.
Source:
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2001_05/taiwan.asp
As for the Palladin M109A6 is ONLY used by the US army. I guess you are talking about M109A5 which I guess you can still call it state of the art. No argument here.
Four SURPLUS Kidd-Class destoryer, I guess the key word is surplus and I guess you know why we even have them...Ira..n Ir..an...
Patriot PAC-3 system that never worked, but I guess it is still state of the art since nothing work better(check wiki for success rate).
Also, how about selling Taiwan some of these: Aegis-class
destroyers, M-1A2 main battle tanks, Joint Direct Attack
Munitions (JDAMs), and HARM anti-radiation missiles that Taiwan asked and were denied.
Source:
http://www.apcss.org/Publications/APSSS/TaipeisArmsProcurementDilemma.pdf
I also found out that the advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAMs) that were sold to Taiwan are not really in Taiwan...it is still in the US. Wait, the missiles for Taiwan's F-16 is 15000 miles away in a storage room in the US!?
Source:
http://www.cato.org/dailys/12-22-00.html
Arty, the points you make are all irrelevant. Regardless of cost or manufacturing difficulties, the subs, when delivered, will be state of the art. They will not be used or obseolete. The Patriots may or may not perform up to some desired standard, but they are state of the art. The P-3C is the same aircraft used by the US air force and comes with state of the art avionics and ASW systems.
It would be nice if the US delivered other state of the art weapons like M1 tanks and JDAM and HARM munitions. But that does not detract either from my point:
What has been bought and delivered is state of the art.
Anything else is KMT bullshit.
BTW, you should maybe get a more updated article on the AMRAAMs than a Dec 2000 article from CATO. TAiwan got those missiles in 2004.
Michael
Thank you Michael for the AMRAAMs update.
What has been bought and delivered is state of the art.
So the Kidd-Class destoryers and the F-16A/B (US did refuse to sell the more advanced variants) that Taiwan have brought and delivered are state of art equipments?
You know, Arty, all you had to do was Google. Here's FAS, first site in Google.
The KIDD class are the most powerful multi-purpose destroyers in the fleet.
They also got a systems upgrade, and the US sold them to Taiwan at less than the offered cost to Greece + the upgrade. It's not difficult to hunt this shit down, and I am tired of doing it for you.
As for the F-16s, no, they weren't the most advanced version available at the time, but..... They were sold more than 15 years ago. I wasn't talking about them. But the Taiwan AF has asked for the C/D.
But let me give you a hint. I suggest you Google and find out how the F-16s the US sold Taiwan were different from the ordinary A/B versions. You should also see the upgrades the US gave in the late 1990s. Then search your heart and see whether you still want to play this game.
Michael
I don't see why it is a game...it is a simple discussion. All I am saying is that we can sell far better weapons then what we have currently offered. How about some F-22...
Btw, have you take the survey? I am just curious, what's the general setiment of Taiwan hoping US fight a war for them.
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