The China Times has a new poll out with early predictions of the election. It has Ma up over Su or Hsieh by 20 points, 48-29, with 23% having no opinion, while Su/Hsieh beat Wang 38-32 with 30% having no opinion. The China Times organization also polled on Ma as an independent:如果王金平代表國民黨、馬英九獨立參選，蘇貞昌或謝長廷代表民進黨出馬，受訪者的答案又有所不同，11.1％表示會支持王金平，42.5％表示支持馬英九，27.6％表示將會支持蘇貞昌或謝長廷，18.8％表示沒意見。
If Wang Jin-pyng represents the KMT, and Ma Ying-jeou participates as an independent, and Su or Hsieh represents the DPP, among those surveyed, 11.1% said they would support Wang, 42.5% said they'd support Ma, 27.6% said they'd support [DPP candidate], and 18.8% had no opinion.
The article went on to note that if Ma were convicted, those numbers are 13.5, 35.2, 31.1, and 20.2, respectively.
The survey was conducted by phone, probably in northern Taiwan, since I deem it unlikely the organization would spend all that money making long distance calls. Polls from Blue organizations are notorious for their wild inaccuracy, and these numbers should be read as indicative of the preferences of the China Times rather than as a valid representation of the electorate. Laughably, the paper claims it has a margin of error of 2.9%. Yes, and did you know that 63.8% of statistics are made up on the spot?
UPDATE: From the comment below, A New Taiwan poll has Hsieh up on Ma 53% to 47%, which seems a very reasonable figure.
[Taiwan] [DPP] [KMT] [Ma Ying-jeou] [Wang Jin-pyng]
3 comments:
You will excuse the comment being out of topic, Michael, but i could only think of your blog when i received an invitation from the "Centre of French Studies on Modern China" (CEFC) for a conference entitled "Interpretation of Taiwanese history in the Post-colonial era".
I will stress out the "Post-Colonial era" which i found very telling.
The email goes on about how since the end of the martial law a new collective conscience has emerged and has tryied to provide a new reading of history in line with "the communauty of shared fates" taiwaneses want to be.
If any of you happen to understand french and is interested in the topic, it is taking place on the 23rd of March at 2.30pm, in the room B-202 of the Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, at the Academia Sinica.
You can contact cefc(@)gate.sinica.edu.tw for more info.
Just wanted to note the broken link to That's Impossible! ;)
Also thought I'd remention the New Taiwan magazine poll showing Frank Hsieh beating Ma 53% to 47% head on:
〈民調53％：47％〉謝若和馬對決 可贏八十萬票
http://tw.news.yahoo.com/marticle/url/d/a/070307/12/bb3w.html?type=new
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