One reason I don't like to argue much about local support for Taiwan independence is that it has been very difficult to say for sure what it is. But a recent poll may have changed all that, as the Taipei Times reports:Sixty-two percent of Taiwanese respondents to a recent survey conducted jointly in four different locations by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University, the Okinawa-based University of the Ryukyus and the University of Hong Kong said that if Beijing "allowed" Taiwanese to decide the future of the nation, the country should seek formal independence.
Defiant
A further 54 percent of Taiwanese respondents said that even if Beijing did not "allow" Taiwan to pursue independence, that should still be the goal.
Previous polls have not asked what the locals would support if China grew up and gave up its claim to Taiwan, so this poll is a notable advance for having asked that question. Support for independence will continue climbing, as long as Taiwan remains out of the clutches of Beijing.
[Taiwan] [Taiwan Independence]
17 comments:
I'm waiting for the day when a poll about independence asks about the subject as related to Taiwan's escape from the clutches of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) -- not just from the imperialist ambitions of the authoritarians in Beijing who've never even set foot in Taiwan.
Tim Maddog
You assert a changing trend in Taiwanese opinions towards independence. The CSB-appointed Mainland Affairs Council research suggests otherwise.
http://www.mac.gov.tw/english/index1-e.htm
The results do not show a statistically significant change in support for independence or unification over the past 6 years. And it leaves little doubt that even future independence, in the very real world scenario in which China does not give up its claims to Taiwan, is supported by only a small minority of the Taiwanese people.
The original news report about this poll is here:
http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/newchinese/news/2006newletter.pdf
Note that it shows up in a website who claims to be "new chinese"(see the url). What it means to me is that it is done by people whose identify themselves as Chinese (or "more as Chinese") but not Taiwanese. So, if for any reason that the result of this poll was fixed, which is very common in Taiwan, it will only under-estimate the ratio of real Taiwan-Independence supporters.
I hate to say this, but I am doubtful of the accuracy of this report. If that many people are in favor of TI, why did so many of them vote for KMT, a party that promotes the ultimate unification? During the election in 2004, every major party out there (DPP, PFP, KMT) said that they are in favor of maintaining status quo and everybody said that they are not going to seek TI. They all claim that this was what the people wanted....
Additionally, under a different item, the same poll also stated that more than 50% of the population supports maintaining status quo. This seems to be in conflict with the 50+% that claimed to support TI.
Any thoughts?
While this is good news, please note that the poll was taken among both native and expatriate Taiwanese---those residing in Okinawa, Macau, Hong Kong. The article reports that 1000 expatriate Taiwanese were polled, but does not state how many in-country Taiwanese were included.
Similarly, the article mentions that the same poll is conducted each year. But do they adopt the same methodology each time, pollng with the same sample size in each of these 4 places?
Perhaps I'm being over-cautious. The polling could well be scientifically designed, but not clearly explained or reported in the article.
You assert a changing trend in Taiwanese opinions towards independence. The CSB-appointed Mainland Affairs Council research suggests otherwise.
1. I didn't assert a change. I asserted that for once perhaps good numbers were out there. I knew if I put that out there, someone would tell me the problems with the poll.
2. MAC's questions don't tell me what I need to know.
My own experience dovetails with Taiwan Echos -- namely, that the poll underestimates the support for independence in Taiwan.
Michael
I hate to say this, but I am doubtful of the accuracy of this report. If that many people are in favor of TI, why did so many of them vote for KMT, a party that promotes the ultimate unification?
I know lots of people who support longterm independence but vote KMT. There is no conflict between supporting independence and supporting the status quo (which, after all, is a form of independence!). I support both independence and the status quo.
Michael
The fact that
(1) pro-TI ratio is getting higher and higher each year;
(2) it didn't reflect, proportionally, on the votes pan-green parties got
indicate that "national identity" is not the priority in people's minds when they cast their votes. Many other factors could influence the voting, especially true in local elections (compared to president election).
Actually, in my recent-year observations, raising the issue of "national identity crisis" right before elections, presuming that it will increase pan-green's votes, often resulted in opposite effect.
The reason being that pan-blue population, being a group that don't really identify Taiwan as their hometown, have a strong sense of being "kicked out" or punished if once pan-green grab the power. Thus, the pan-bluer who ran the election campaign will try hard to paint the following logic onto pan-green:
pan-green grab power
--> seek TI
--> seek revenge on pan-blue
--> hell for pan-bluers
This "green = TI = blue's hell" is so powerful that the "sense of extinction" establishes quickly in pan-bluers' minds, resulting in their votes highly-concentrating on pan-bluers.
On the opposite side, the same logic also applies:
"blue = Unification = green's hell"
However, since pan-greeners don't have that intrinsic sense of insecurity, the effect that pan-green gains by selling this "national identity crisis" issue will never compete with that gained in pan-bluers. As a result, shouting "Taiwan Independence" before the elections will cause pan-green to suffer.
From my point of view, pan-bluers know this advert effect, so they will try hard to paint "TI" on green in order to gain upperhand in voting. But pan-greeners are so stupid that they are not able to see it, so, like their opponent, they also paint themselves with label of "rushing for TI" before elections. This results in a funny situation: both sides of blue and green would try hard to "label pan-green with TI". Under these circumstances, pan-bluers who don't wanna unite with China will still give their votes to KMT.
"While this is good news, please note that the poll was taken among both native and expatriate Taiwanese---those residing in Okinawa, Macau, Hong Kong."
I think theres some misunderstanding regarding this poll. I believe 4 separate but concurrent polls have been conducted in 4 places, Taiwan, HK , Macau and Okinawa involving natives in each country/territory. For comparison purpose, ie over how 4 different sets of people(Taiwaneses, HKers, Macaneses and OKinawans) feel about 'independence'.
>>>please note that the poll was taken among both native and expatriate Taiwanese---those residing in Okinawa, Macau, Hong Kong
The NCCU poll doesn't say that it was taken among native and expatriate Taiwanese. It just said "Taiwanese" who were polled (1068 of them).
But , yeah, come on guys, we all know this (especially after 2004): if you are leaning toward independence, you vote green (DPP or TSU). If you are not, you vote blue (KMT, PFP or NP). I mean, everyone I know who leans toward independence votes green. It was a pretty clear cut line that 99% of the people follow. I mean, why would a bengshen Taiwanese wanting to see the Republic of Taiwan vote for KMT, whose full name is "Chinese Nationalist Party"?
Just my 2 cents.
Michael,
Your lack of intellectual honesty is astounding, and quite honestly, pathetic.
You claim that the well-documented MAC surveys don't "tell you what you want to know", that "it has been very difficult to say" what the surveys are measuring. This despite nearly 20 years of continuous questioning, and published methodology.
On the other hand, the ambiguously phrased survey reported third-hand through the Taipei Times apparently gave you everything you wanted to hear.
You're a joke.
That's right, the MAC data doesn't tell me what I need to know. Nothing "hypocritical" or "pathetic" about incomplete data, though there is certainly something pathetic about anonymous insults!
Michael
聽.囂告 嘎 媚摳.偷疼
阿力洗呆頑郎猴?
阿力在靠悲靠布靠沙咪吆?
阿哇洗呆頑郎嘎客郎,哇阿公洗228ㄟ宿害駕.
膽洗衣馬感款頭ㄟ國民黨.
阿拎吸ㄚ篼ㄚ丟碘碘,哺蘭丟當幾ㄟ嫁港ㄟ呆頑郎.
I read that article in the Taipei Times, too, and I did a double and then a triple-take. The article didn't say that Taiwanese IN TAIWAN were polled INSIDE Taiwan. It seemed to say that the results were taken from Taiwanese polled OUTSIDE of Taiwan. Polling Taiwanese residing abroad would be interesting, surely, but would not necessarily say much about the opinions of the general populace inside Taiwan.
<<<<<<<<<<<
I think theres some misunderstanding regarding this poll. I believe 4 separate but concurrent polls have been conducted in 4 places, Taiwan, HK , Macau and Okinawa involving natives in each country/territory. For comparison purpose, ie over how 4 different sets of people(Taiwaneses, HKers, Macaneses and OKinawans) feel about 'independence'.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I think you're right. I mis-read the article. In that case, I'll guardedly cast aside my prior reservations. This is rather good news.
I'd like to see the exact wording of the questionaire, but as the same questions were asked of people in Okinawa, Macau, and Hong Kong, I'm inclined to think the questions were designed to be as unbiased and as neutral as possible.
聽.囂告 嘎 媚摳.偷疼
阿力洗呆頑郎猴?
阿力在靠悲靠布靠沙咪吆?
阿哇洗呆頑郎嘎客郎,哇阿公洗228ㄟ宿害駕.
膽洗衣馬感款頭ㄟ國民黨.
阿拎吸ㄚ篼ㄚ丟碘碘,哺蘭丟當幾ㄟ嫁港ㄟ呆頑郎
I've never seen Taiwanese been written in this way. Assuming that I am capable of reading it, let me try to decipher ... (at least part of it)
聽.囂告 嘎 媚摳.偷疼
(???)
阿力洗呆頑郎猴?
(阿你是台灣人喔？）
Are you a Taiwanese ?
阿力在靠悲靠布靠沙咪吆?
(阿你在哭爸哭媽哭什麼？）
What the hell are you complaining about ?
阿哇洗呆頑郎嘎客郎,哇阿公洗228ㄟ宿害駕.
(阿我是台灣人也是客家人，我阿公是228受害者）
I am both Taiwanese and Hokka, my grandpa was 228 victim.
膽洗衣馬感款頭ㄟ國民黨.
(但是他也一樣投票給國民黨）
(But he still votes for KMT)
阿拎吸ㄚ篼ㄚ丟碘碘,
(你是外國人就閉嘴）
You are a foreigner so keep your mouth shut
哺蘭丟當幾ㄟ嫁港ㄟ呆頑郎
（？？當一個正港的台灣人）
???? be a real Taiwanese
I can't decipher the first line, as well as the beginning part of the last line.
<<<<<<<<<<
The article didn't say that Taiwanese IN TAIWAN were polled INSIDE Taiwan. It seemed to say that the results were taken from Taiwanese polled OUTSIDE of Taiwan.
>>>>>>>>>>>
Read the article again. I made the same mistake you did. The poll was taken among Taiwanese In Taiwan. It was also taken of Okinawans IN Okinawa, Macauans in Macau, etc, to assess and compare the views of the people of colonial societies.
Of these places, Taiwan and Okinawa had the strongest sense of identites---which is not surprising.
The article could have been written more clearly. It may have gotten a bit garbled after translation, but some people understood it anyway.
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