Nelson Report: NUC, Iran, Chen

Bad news from DC.....this week's Nelson Report discusses the dismal failure of Chen and the US to communicate at all, and the ongoing suspicion in Washington that Chen is clueless about the world. Why? Well, Taipei wanted a high-profile transit through the US the same week that the UN was considering US resolutions on Iran. Once again, Bush's Middle Eastern policies screw Taiwan. Meanwhile Taipei doesn't get how it stands in the scheme of things, whether it is Chen imagining that what he is doing is no big deal, or Ma Ying-jeou believing that anyone on earth outside the Blue Camp really gives a damn about the ROC.

The Nelson Report also confirmed that senior administration officials sent Chen to Alaska as punishment for the NUC decision, making hash of Taipei's claims that the NUC had nothing to do with it. Reality: the NUC decision was a monumental eff-up whose repercussions will be felt for some time to come. It is likely that we will have to wait

The report also added this:

It also sounds like Taiwan may be receiving some badly outdated advice on "what to do" about the decision, which is seen in Taipei as a calculated personal insult to President Chen...something Administration officials went out of their way to avoid, at least in any public statements.

The issue is more insidious than "bad advice." The Report's comment makes clear Blue strategy on the issue. The reason so many in the Blue camp harped on the "insult" issue is because by doing so, they drive a wedge between Taiwan and US policymakers. One of the long-term Blue goals is to degrade the US-Taiwan alliance so that the island can be moved into China's orbit. Chen's continuing problems managing this most crucial of relationships are not helping.

UPDATE: Jerome Keating asks a common question in the comments below:

Let me see if I get this right; no one gives a damn about the ROC, but if we scrap the NUC Guidelines, that are outdated, not used,and without a budget, all hell breaks loose and the State Department tells us to sit in the corner like bad boys. Am I missing something here?

To which I replied:

Nope. But the key issue was that Chen made that decision all by himself. According to people I know in MOFA, he never consulted his foreign policy people. And he never consulted the US.

It's OK to abolish the NUC. It is not OK to make moves that people outside Taiwan, who do not understand Taiwan, might get upset at.

Sure, the US way overreacted. But Chen could have prevented any reaction at all by consulting his partner -- by treating the US as a valued friend and ally, whom it would be prudent and fair to make happy.

The US is Taiwan's most important friend. Taiwan should be willing to go to great lengths to make certain it is not taken by surprise. That is both common courtesy and wise policy.

Chen has harmed relations with the US that he should be cultivating. Sad. Kathrin Hille had another one of her pro-Blue articles in the Financial Times yesterday, but the gist of it is correct:

“Mr Chen has managed to widely erode support in the most pro-Taiwan administration in recent memory,” said the US expert.

When Mr Chen earlier this year broke a promise not to scrap an advisory body responsible for working towards unification with China, US delegates were assured by his aides in private that his other commitments – such as refraining from declaring independence – were still valid. However, Washington subsequently found it impossible to get a personal confirmation of this from him.

“He says one thing and does another,” said the US expert. “He behaves like a lawyer”

Randall Schriver, former deputy assistant secretary of state, said US-Taiwan relations would now enter a “cooling-off period”, and Taipei needed to engage in close communication with Washington to stop an emerging “negative cycle” in bilateral ties.

I have no idea why anyone would ever think Chen would declare independence -- the NUC was picked because it had no concrete effect on the world. But the first sentence is correct: Bush came into office ready to support the island in every way possible. Even allowing for the malign influence of the KMT and its allies on the media and on Washington, there's no avoiding the conclusion that Chen was really screwed up relations with the US.

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