Daily Links, Oct 11, 2010. Nope, Oct 12

Hope you're taking a break like these lads in a local temple procession....

BLOGS:

• Drew chronicles our century ride out to Mingde Reservoir.
• Scott Sommers' new book is out.
• Todd does the Jungliao loop
• Ma again with the pro-China rhetoric, J Michael has Taipei Times editorial
• Michella chronicles some foodies in love with Taitung.
• Cycling Satin Cesena on the reservoir ride.
• Tibetan Buddhists are clearly disloyal to the ROC
• Letters from Taiwan with some hard hitting stuff lately, this one on the Ag Minister's almost threat to cut funding for a park if the KMT candidate in Taichung doesn't win.
• The Foreigner has some interesting predictions on future Nobel Peace Prize winners.
• Sinocentric finds a hack on TIers in the Chinese press.
• Steve Crook's new book reviewed at My Several Worlds.
• Cannibal cows of Taichung
  

MEDIA:

• Japan Focus: Liu Xiaobo and the troubled history of Chinese liberalism. Also, Mark Seldon on US hegemony in East Asia
• NT to surge past 30?
• Firms dumping unauthorized stuff in landfills near dams in Taiwan? Who could have imagined it? And why are there landfills next to dams in the first place?
• Songshan airport area residents want more cash.
• Japanese, Taiwanese chip makers forge deals to challenge Korea.
• Blumenthal points out that it is Washington, not Taipei, that is unreliable.
• Cool: Taiwan-Germany launch work exchange program.
• Sec Gates says US has national interest in China sea disputes. If only our elites had the courage and common sense to pull out of Afghanistan, they'd make this a lot more credible.
• Taiwan in talks with Indonesia over island development
• Taiwan problem in US-China relations. PRC belligerance brings Taiwan in from the cold.
  
• President Ma says Taiwan belongs to ROC. Looks like that Harvard diploma isn't worth the paper it was printed on.
• Ministry of Justice moves on vote buying ahead of elections.
• CSIS with video on South China Sea situation. Oh, and paid for by defense firm UTC.
• The global tsunami of aging.
• Asia Sentinel on China's South Sea claim
• Taiwan activists use film against death penalty.
  

EVENTS: American Footsteps in Taiwan -- America and Americans in Taiwan in the pre-1980 period.

The American Institute in Taiwan - Kaohsiung Branch in conjunction with the Sun Yat-sen University American Center will be continuing the "American Footsteps in Southern Taiwan" exhibition in Tainan (please see cut out and weblink to AIT-K).

This link is to the first exhibition held in Kaohsiung -- http://w5.kcg.gov.tw/khm/exhibit/American-en/index.htm

9/29/2010 - 11/30/2010 - American Footsteps in Southern Taiwan Exhibit In cooperation with the Tainan City Government Culture and Tourism Bureau and the America Center located at National Sun Yat-sen University, AIT Kaohisung Branch Office is pleased to present "American Footsteps in Southern Taiwan" exhibit at the Koxinga Museum located in Tainan from September 29 to November 30. The exhibit features stories of U.S. interaction with southern Taiwan in a key era from 1950-80.

http://www.ait.org.tw and type in "American Footsteps in Taiwan" in the search box.

http://www.ait.org.tw/en/american-footsteps-in-southern-taiwan.html (UPDATED as of last week with a video clip)

AIT-Taipei will be holding the "American Footsteps in Taiwan" (which will encompasses all Taiwan) exhibition from 12/17/2010 to 1/24/2011 in Taipei at the National Library. More to follow. AIT will post the announcement on the AIT webpage.

In order to make this event the best it can, LTC Scott J. Ellinger humbly requests support from people who were once stationed in Taiwan to contribute to this exhibition. The military portion of the exhibition will make up about half of the displays. Please send old awards, photos, welcome booklets, anything that brings back the memories...

Please contact LTC Ellinger at us_maag_taiwan@yahoo.com

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Mingde Reservoir Ride

Just a few pics from my long ride out to Mingde Reservoir yesterday. 163 kms through the rolling hill country of Miaoli along 3, then out to the coast down 13 and 119, and back to the Chung along 1. This shot is actually the Liyutan Reservoir in Miaoli.

Setting up, she offered us a slice of delicious pear as we rested by the roadside on 3.

In Dahu Township, as lovely a bucolic setting for a bike ride as you'll find in Taiwan, the fields are being readied for planting with strawberries, the area's signature crop.

Trimming everything up nice.

One of the rivers feeding the reservoir. There is no development permitted in the basin: no traffic, buildings, or people. Just two lanes of as-new blacktop and water, trees, and hills.

The reservoir sits halfway between Taoyuan and Taichung. Lots of cyclists come down or up to circle it, meaning that there are plenty of interesting people on the road.

The advantage of a bike: arriving quietly enough not to scare the local wildlife.

Mingde is little known and appears to be a great place to hang out for a romantic weekend of easy riding and hiking in the unspoiled environs of the lake. The 15 kms along the lake are highly recommended.
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Taipei Housing Prices to Remain High, NT on its way up

President Ma came to power strongly backed by foreign financial interests who also saw Taipei's real estate market as a good investment possibility. In the latter choice they were smart. From the China Post:

Prices of luxury apartments and office space in Taipei City's prime locations will continue to be high in the short-term, due to a strong rise of the local currency, analysts said yesterday.

The Taiwan dollar (TWD) has appreciated by a significant margin over the last couple of days, due to an influx of hot money into Taiwan as well as other parts of Asia, on the ultra-loose monetary policy announced by the United States.

........

According to a recent survey of My Housing Magazine, as much as NT$109.5 billion worth of new apartments will be rolled out in northern Taiwan in November.

Institutional investors pointed out prices of luxury mansions and office space in prime areas of Taipei City will continue to be high, due to several factors besides a rising TWD.

Luxury mansions in Taiwan are mostly sold at NT$1.8 million to NT$2 million a ping, far less than the NT$7.5 million to NT$12.5 million in Hong Kong. Each ping is 3.3 square meters.

The article also observed that the wealthy have plenty of cash on hand, and that the government is no longer selling state-owned land. That restriction on supply has, as many foresaw, helped to sustain high prices in the Taipei market -- it is difficult to avoid concluding that keeping prices high is the reason for it, in fact. Yet another factor keeping real estate costs up is the expected increase in demand for office space as Chinese and foreign investors set up shop in Taipei to take advantage of ECFA.

A high NT (it hit 30 to the dollar last week) threatens Taiwan's exports by making them more expensive. To counteract the inflows of cash, the Taiwan Central Bank flooded the market with NT last week:

Sales of the island’s dollar failed to prevent the exchange rate from closing at a two-year high as all of Asia’s 10 most- active currencies rallied following Japan’s first cut in interest rates since 2008. Taiwan’s central bank last week raised borrowing costs for the second time this year and foreigners have pumped almost $3 billion into local shares since the start of September.

Some analysts are predicting that the Taiwan dollar may hit 29.75 by the end of the year. Economic growth and a rising NT are masking an unanticipated fall in exports, a report on Thursday noted:

Taiwan's export growth slowed for the second straight month in September and was much lower than economists had forecast.

The country's shipments grew 17.5% year-on-year in September, slower than the 26.6% increase in August, data from the Ministry of Finance showed Thursday. Economists had expected the growth rate to remain unchanged from the previous month's level.

Meanwhile, growth in imports outpaced exports by rising 25%, following a 28% gain in the previous month. Import growth also fell short of expectations of a 30% increase. Total exports amounted to US$22.4 billion during the month and imports totaled US$20.6 billion.

The good news is that exports to the major areas of Europe, China, and the US are all rising, and that orders are also booming:

Data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs released last month showed that Taiwan's export orders, an indicator of the Island's export performance in the coming months, rose 23.3% year-on-year to US$34.88 billion in August, a record-high, beating economists' expectations. Taiwan's economy relies heavily on its export sector. In the second quarter, the economy maintained its double-digit growth on the back of strong exports, growing 12.53% annually. The growth, however, was slower than the 13.7% expansion in the previous quarter.

All this positive progress on the economic front has yet to translate into advantage for the KMT at the polls.
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Daily Links:

• Sneak peek at the Taipei Floral Expo grounds
• Oh noes! Foxconn abusing its employees again.
• As I said two years ago, eventually they'd be bringing in Chinese laborers.
  
• North Korea on Google Maps
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Liu Xiaobo wins Nobel Peace Prize, as Beijing Planned

Mingde Reservoir from 126 along its north side. As lovely a stretch of road as can be found in Taiwan.

Taiwan Congratulates dissident Liu Xiaobo says the headline of an article which collects reactions to the award from the President, the KMT, and the DPP, as well as individuals. The President also called for Beijing to release Liu. Quite a turnaround for someone who spent his salad days in opposition to the growth of democracy in Taiwan.

Jottings from the Granite Studio ripped the CCP -- and took a gentle poke at the Nobel Prize Committee -- in a witty post on the prize award.

As of 8:30 this morning, the domestic media is simply repeating the official rebuke from last night and then…deafening silence. I think the idea here is “If I don’t say anything, everybody will think it was the dog who farted not me.” Always a winning PR strategy.

The fact is that the CCP doesn’t need to do this anymore. More than one commentator in the past 24 hours has referred to the debacle as a “PRC own goal.” If government hadn’t been so freaked out by Charter 08 and sentenced Liu Xiaobo to prison (on December 25, 2009 figuring that the Western world would be too deep in egg nog to care…how’s that plan working out right about now?) then the Nobel committee wouldn’t have given this guy the time of day. Not to take anything away from Liu’s obvious set of large brass ones or his and his family’s sacrifice, but this Prize is as much a testament to the CCP’s continued paranoia and basic stupidity when confronted with even the most mild of statements for systemic or institutional change as it is about any one man.

"PRC own goal" -- a goal in which you stupidly and mistakenly score against yourself, thus creating a point for the other team. I think there's a glimmer of insight I'd like to tease out here.

Let me point out something. Prior to the award, China warned Norway against giving Liu the award. This blog was among the many commentators who noted that this all but sealed it for Liu. Indeed, the pressure has been on a long time.

Nobel Institute Director Geir Lundestad told the Norwegian news agency Norsk Telegrambyrå (NTB) that China's Deputy Foreign Minister Fu Ying met Lundestad in Oslo this summer to deliver the message. Separately, a Hong Kong visitor who met Norwegian officials earlier this year told Asia Sentinel that "the government folks there said they were under tremendous pressure from the Communists not to give the Peace Prize as long ago as last November. It is an outrageous example of Beijing interfering in the internal affairs of small countries."

Do you think the leadership in Beijing didn't know that pressure would only produce the opposite results? Try this on for size: Beijing was trying to ensure that Liu got the award.

If they didn't want Liu to win, why did they keep Liu front and center in China-Norway relations for almost a year?

With the ground broken on a Chinese dissident, Beijing and Taipei can then approach the Committee for Nobel approval of the Ma-Hu 2011 Nobel Peace Taiwan Sellout Lovefest Tour. The Committee, having affronted Beijing the previous year, will naturally want to mend fences. And what could be better than a joint Ma-Hu Peace Prize for "calming tensions" in the Strait? (what a boost for Ma going into 2012 too). Why do you think Ma came out so strongly for this and called for Liu's release in the massive publicity wake of the prize, but when DPP Chair Tsai urged Ma to talk to PRC negotiator Chen Yunlin in Dec of last year, only a weak statement was issued?

And as a special bonus, if it is given at the same time next year, it will occur around Double 10 Day (ROC) and the PRC National Day (Oct 1).

UPDATE: Several other motivations for wanting Liu to win have been suggested, including preventing Gao from getting it.

UPDATE II: Some excellent rejections of this in comments below.
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Daily Links

• Don asks the same question I always do in post on academic work that laps up Beijing propaganda.
• President Ma vows that KMT will take responsibility for its past.
• David collects responses to Arthur Waldron's call for the opposition and the KMT to celebrate National Day together. Waldron is a longtime China/Taiwan observer and strong supporter of Taiwan.
• Taiwan stops "activists" from engaging in more shenanigans in the Senkakus.
• Fashion designer insists he is Taiwanese even as Ma tries to appropriate him. Good clean fun.
• Former President Chen's detention extended two more months. Thank you, KMT, for keeping Chen quiet and out of the way and enabling Tsai Ing-wen to reconsolidate the DPP and go forward to dominate the last few elections. Now Chen will remain behind bars for the duration of the 2010 election season.
• Commonwealth Magazine, as always, has a useful piece on the debate over universal values in China.
• Despite reports, updates say no Taiwan fishing vessel has been hijacked off Somalia.
• Human-driven global warming is reducing miracle rice yields.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Chinese Basketball Team Panics, Flees, at sight of ROC flags

Liu Xiabo wins the Nobel. Ma made the usual good-for-all-Chinese-people speech. Aimed at local domestic consumption? Interesting how he positioned himself.

But that's for tomorrow. Meanwhile, enjoy this heartwarming story....

A visiting Chinese university basketball team withdrew Friday from a tournament being playing in Taoyuan County after seeing hundreds of Taiwanese national flags displayed outside the arena.

After arriving Friday afternoon at Kainan University Arena, where the 2010 Asian University Basketball Championship was being held, the bus carrying the Tianjin Polytechnic University basketball team turned around and left.

The team missed its game against a Mongolian All-Star team, and was officially credited with a 20-0 loss.

Though nobody from the Chinese delegation commented on its pull-out, the team may have been angered by the hundreds of Taiwan national flags displayed in and around the parking lot and along the road leading to the arena that greeted their bus.

They were put there by a "national flag rally" organized by two local university students in protest of a move the night before by an official from the tournament's organizer, the Chinese Taipei University Sports Federation (CTUSF) , to stop a fan from displaying the country's national flag in the stands.

The students were incensed by reports that the CTUSF official, Lee Hung-chi, clamped down on the fan at China's insistence, though subsequent reports indicated Lee acted of his own volition.

"This is a silent protest to the Chinese team that made the flag issue a big deal, " said one of the two student protest organizers identified only by his surname Hsieh.

The other organizer, surnamed Hsu, said the protest was "non-political" and was held to express "freedom of speech."

Lee described the Chinese team's withdrawal as "silly, " but he himself was criticized by the Sports Affairs Council (SAC), Taiwan's top sports administrator, for going after the fan.

Students. Silent protest. "Non-political." Awesome. Strawberries? Don't underestimate these kids....
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Ad Ed Value

Photographed this interesting political ad in eastern Fengyuan town today. The ad is for Wang Chao-kun ("王朝坤"), the KMT candidate for the new Taichung City Council for Fengyuan and Houli. Those towns are north of Taichung city. The poster caught my eye because the candidate's shirt reads "MAZU", the popular local Goddess, and if you look carefully in the upper left corner of the poster, you can see a Mazu logo there.

A quick search took me to this page where he is listed (as Wang Tsao-kun) as one of the Directors of the Dajia Matsu Temple, the most important on the island. That temple is run by the notorious Yen Ching-piao, who has been in and out of jail and who is widely reputed to be a powerful gangster. He is President of the temple association. Wang Chao-kun is apparently one of Yen's men. He is currently speaker of the Houli Township Council. If you run searches on that list of names you'll soon run across other local politicians.

Just another example of how religion and politics intertwine in Taiwan through the temple associations, which provide a nexus for local businessmen, politicians, and local "colorful characters", and also, of the influence of that particular temple association in the local politics of the northern Taichung area. Temple associations are good launching pads for local political careers, and the subdued use of the Goddess Mazu on the sign tells locals what kind of politician they are getting.....
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Hau's that again?

The most recent Taipei mayor election TVBS poll. According to question three, a bloc of KMT voters is voting Hau even though they think he's not as competent as Su. Question 2, of likely voters, shows the numbers across the last few polls -- basically they are running neck and neck.

The Taipei Times ran a story today entitled Hau Blames Prosecutors for Poll Drop. It said:

With the latest poll showing rivals for the Taipei mayoral seat running neck-and-neck, Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) yesterday stepped up his criticism of prosecutors, saying their high-profile raids of city government offices in relation to the Xinsheng Overpass scandal was costing him vital voter support.

Hau blamed the searches for the drop in his support rate in recent polls conducted by his campaign team, and said he was willing to take a polygraph or handwriting test to facilitate the investigation.

.....

Hau, of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), said that in polls conducted by his team, his support rate dropped significantly every time news about the prosecutors’ searches of the Taipei City Government came out.

Perhaps the KMT internals really show that Hau is taking a beating because of the investigation, but the TVBS polls has had the two basically neck and neck since the beginning, despite the slight bump for Su in the last poll. Hau might squeak by because of Blue tribalism in Taipei, but fundamentally he is not a strong candidate, and he doesn't seem to able to overcome his own limitations. In fact if Hau gave the investigation less prominence and concentrated more on positives, he might be able to move past it.

Hau was responding to the latest search, Oct 5:

The Taipei District Prosecutors Office yesterday searched the office and residences of Yang Hsi-an, Taipei City Government Secretary General, in the wake of the alleged Xinsheng Overpass Rejuvenation project scandal. Wang Wen-teh, one of the head prosecutors, stated that Yang was not a suspect, and the purpose of search was to “assure the entirety of a third party’s evidence.”

According to media reports, the prosecutors yesterday wanted to find out the truth about how Chen Chih-sheng, former section chief of the Taipei City New Construction Department, obtained a memo which was seized during a search of his office. The other purpose for yesterday’s search was to clarify whether or not Taipei City Hall had invited bidders to participate in the project or driven up the budget for the Xinsheng Overpass Rejuvenation project.

Ironically, the China Post says it was Hau himself who asked the prosecutors to intervene to clear up the matter.
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Daily Links:

• Taipei Times rips the rubber stamp EPA
• Shore up US-Taiwan Relations in IBD. Great piece is like a primer of what to do -- except for the F-16s, all very doable. I also like the clever title -- now that Two-China Tensions Have Abated. True, but independence tensions haven't, have they?
  
• Chinese Dissident wins Nobel Peace Prize. ‎"Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said it would be "totally wrong" for "such a person" to win the Nobel Peace Prize, - the comment was later scrubbed from the official transcript of the briefing." Haha. The world wonders: What will Ma Ying-jeou say?
• How China Plays the Great Game: China wins when the US loses Afghanistan. How long have I been saying that? Newsweek notices the sea-change in China.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Links

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Daily Links:

• Taiwan shops in the US to bolster its air defenses
• Washington assesses Taiwan's defense needs
  
• Taiwan's in-vitro fertilization baby count now reaches 50,000.
• Register for the Taiwan bike festival in Hualien.
• Companies bringing Chinese workers in for "professional training."
• Like chasing monkeys? K-town has a job for you.
• The Diplomat: Is China making Taiwan nervous? Do ursines excrete in woodlands?
• Is Taiwan blocking mergers and acquisitions in the financial sector? Wouldn't it be great if the post had provided some details on the issue, so readers could judge for themselves?
• Yes, it was Chen Shui-bian's fault that China passed the Anti-Secession Law, says a Canadian diplomat. *sigh*
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Sutter: Taiwan is outside the hedge

Numerous commentators have remarked on how Asian states on China's perimeter are now moving closer to the US as the next wave of Chinese expansion kicks into gear. Robert Sutter, the longtime US government Taiwan and China expert observes of "Taiwan's" approach"

In contrast to the public support found in the capitals of South Korea, Japan, ASEAN, India, and other Asia-Pacific countries for the Obama administration’s greater regional activism, Taiwan has maintained a low public profile. Presumably reflecting its interests and priorities, the government of President Ma Ying-jeou continues to devote its attention to advancing positive relations with China. It doesnot give much mention to relations with the United States or maneuverings by regional governments in the face of new challenges posed by recent Chinese assertiveness. It works to solidify its recent free trade agreement with China, the so-called Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), and endeavors to use the framework to gain China’s acquiescence to advance free trade arrangements between Taiwan and other countries in Asia and elsewhere. It highlights positive breakthroughs in its policy of reassurance and engagement with China, notably its recent joint naval rescue exercises with mainland forces. Taiwan’s approach led it to side strongly with China regarding territorial disputes with Japan over the Senkaku/ Diaoyu islands. Taiwan notably confronted Japan by sending coast guard ships to protect Taiwanese fishermen working in the disputed region, although it more mildly reaffirmed territorial claims in line with China's in the South China Sea.

Implications:
The Taiwan government and the US administration maintain close relations. Regular US arms sales and other security ties are complimented by off-again, on-again efforts to advance relations through such proposals as a trade and investment treaty, arrangements for an extradition treaty, and a visa-waiver program. However, Taiwan’s top priority since 2008 on reassuring China seems to show that Taiwan is less willing to follow others in the Asia-Pacific in solidifying relations with the United States in a period of Chinese assertiveness.

Many in the United States, Taiwan, and elsewhere welcome Taiwan’s policy choices. Taiwan’s approach encourages a calmer Taiwan Strait than was the case in President Lee Teng-hui’s later years or during the Chen Shui-bian presidency. Some see President Ma Ying-jeou’s policies as moving Taiwan further toward understandings with China that will allow for a peaceful resolution of the “Taiwan issue,” thereby ending a longstanding policy problem for the United States and regional stability. On the other hand, Taiwan’s recent record suggests that those in the United States and the Asia-Pacific who seek Taiwanese actions aimed at enhancing regional contingency plans to deal with possible domineering Chinese assertiveness are likely to be disappointed. Such contingency plans, popularly known as “hedging,” appear to have a much lower priority in Taipei than in other Asian-Pacific capitals. At present, Taiwan seems to choose to stand with China, outside the “hedge.”

Sutter is as centrist as they come; it is worth noting that he has "moved" to the right as China has risen -- the reality is with so many in Washington eager sell themselves to Beijing, it is Washington, not Sutter, that has lurched in the wrong direction.

Over at AEI Claude Barfield summarizes:

He then posits that as a result of Beijing’s clumsy diplomacy most nations in the region—he rattles off examples of Japan, Korea, and ASEAN countries—are moving toward the United States and adopting strong “hedging” initiatives, with the conspicuous exception of Taiwan, which, “’has shown little public interest in any steps toward reengagement with the United States that would compromise its top focus on reassurance and cooperative interaction with China,” writes Sutter. “At present,” he concludes, “Taiwan seems to choose to stand with China outside the ‘hedge.’”

Sutter is clearly puzzled by Taiwan’s stance, but in the end he makes no predictions about the future and cabins his analysis to the situation “at present.” I would suggest that one possible explanation regarding Taiwan’s recent behavior stems from a sequence of events that Sutter mentions in passing—the delicate diplomatic maneuvering leading up to negotiation of the PRC-Taiwan Economic Cooperation and Framework Agreement (ECFA) and Taiwan’s goal of getting Beijing’s acquiescence (silent permission) to negotiate additional free trade agreements with other Asian nations. Whatever the medium- to long-range stance Taiwan may adopt, in the short run I suspect that Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s fear is that any sign that Taiwan is “hedging,” or siding with others against the mainland, could lead to a summary and decisive veto of further economic integration efforts. There is a case for lying low at the moment—though I’d be interested in other reactions to the situation Sutter describes.

Barfield is wrong on both counts: Sutter is not at all puzzled by Taiwan's stance, and the "delicate situation" is not caused by Taiwan's China relationship and the desire for trade agreements but rather by the KMT's domestic political situation and its own internal divisions about how and whether to sell out Taiwan to China. Sutter knows perfectly well where President Ma's sympathies lie; he just can't say so out loud. But note that Sutter gives a strong hint when he observes that Taiwan confronted Japan over the Senkakus. Hint, hint. Why would Taiwan do that? Merely to gain more warm fuzzies from China for ECFA and future trade relations with other nations? Nope. Because our current government thinks it's the government of China, of which Taiwan is a province, and the Senkakus are a possession, and because the KMT is allied to the CCP. Taiwan's work on behalf of China in the Senkakus shows that Ma and the KMT government are not "outside the hedge" but inside the orbit of China.

Indeed, a new millenium has dawned here.

The Senkakus are also a touchy area for Taiwan nationalists, many of whom suffer from the delusion that the Senkakus belong to Taiwan. Hence Ma scores some points there when he stands up big in the Senkakus.

This from the Eurasia Monitor from the Jamestown Brief is also apropo:

PLA Displays Network-Centric Capabilities in Peace Mission 2010
Force elements, planning, scenario and the conduct of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Peace Mission 2010, staged in Kazakhstan from September 9 to 25, were largely similar to previous exercises (EDM, September 28). That is apart from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s contribution, which was significant for a number of reasons including the geopolitical context of instability in Kyrgyzstan and the recent violence in Tajikistan. Intervention during a crisis in Central Asia appears more plausible, though it remains unclear whether the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) or the SCO might offer a viable multilateral framework in such circumstances, or if a bilateral agreement would be preferred resulting in a unilateral operation. Following the failure of the CSTO to intervene in Kyrgyzstan to restore order after the request made by the interim Kyrgyz government in June, many have questioned the organization’s actual capability to offer credible stabilization options. Peace Mission 2010 showcased the SCO’s potential, if consensus were achieved, to provide an alternative and the scenario involved requesting UN Security Council backing before commencing operations.

Uzbekistan’s refusal to participate in the exercise left the other five SCO members to uphold the multilateral organization’s security credentials. Apart from predictable political statements concerning the SCO’s need to combat the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism, the exercise concentrated on an anti-terrorist theme, displaying unity of action and implausible institutional equality. However, the level of manpower was less than Peace Mission 2007 (6,500 personnel in 2007, compared with 5,000 this year), while much of the equipment revealed little difference; unsurprising in terms of the weak Tajik and Kyrgyz armed forces, though puzzling especially since the Kazakh military claims to make substantial progress towards its modernization. Despite the Russian military reform, the “new look” force elements appeared decidedly dated. It is clear, however, that the PLA grouping and equipment eclipsed the other four SCO members (Xinhua, September 25).

In this context, Major-General Meng Guoping, the deputy commander of the PLA’s participating forces, highlighted five key advances during Peace Mission 2010, all bolstering an image of the PLA’s power projection capabilities. The equipment used by the PLA featured during the National Day celebrations in 2009, were Mode-99 tanks, 122 howitzer carriers, the 425 integrated air defense system, and the J-10 fighter aircraft as well as command shelters. Moreover, PLA spokesmen emphasized that all the equipment was domestically produced. Significantly, the design and assembly of the equipment was aimed at fitting a combat system to facilitate network-centric operations, linked by ground and air command platforms united in an information system. General Meng Guoping specifically used the phrase “system of systems” in referring to the deployment of network-centric assets (Zhongguo Xinwen She, September 21).

PLA involvement in Peace Mission exercises has also evolved to compensate for the difficulties of the language barriers, honing training in an unfamiliar environment and switching to field commands. In the PLA field camps formed for Peace Mission 2010, tents, beds and shower camps were all transported and built by the Chinese. Efforts were made to improve command and control during the exercise, extending it from the strategic level to the tactical level. Joint and coordinated action was stressed, for instance involving the Chinese air force (PLAAF) with their Russian and Kazakh counterparts: two Kazakh MiG-29 fighters were joined by three H-6 PLAAF aircraft to form an escort force, while helicopter assets from China, Russia and Kazakhstan formed a unified strike force. Equally, attention was given to securing PLA communications channels during the exercise, presumably rehearsing anti-jamming measures (Zhongguo Xinwen She, September 21).

Moreover, the high-profile PLAAF demonstration of strategic air power, involving fighters and bombers conducting non-stop flights to simulate high-precision strikes in Kazakhstan, before returning to their bases in Urumqi were “safeguarded” by adding mid-air refueling to ensure their success. PLAAF senior officers stated that they could have conducted the mission without refueling (Zhongguo Xinwen She, September 21, Jiefangjun Bao, September 23). As the PLAAF develops its air combat group, integrating combat, early warning command, long-range strikes, escort and cover, and in-flight refueling, Peace Mission 2010 was confidently used to demonstrate advances made towards carrying out independent long-range precision strikes. The PLAAF was evidently practicing offensive air operations in an informatized network-centric context. The underlying message appeared to be that the PLA stands out among the SCO forces for its growing power projection capabilities (Zhongguo Xinwen She, September 21).

Since the other members of the SCO currently lack network-centric capabilities, it is revealing that China chose to demonstrate these power projection levels during a multilateral exercise. The reasons underlying this show of genuine military strength are rooted in the dynamic tension that exists within the competitive and cooperative Sino-Russian strategic partnership. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and China’s emergence as the second strongest world economic power, many perceive that Beijing is willing to raise its defense profile internationally. Equally, during Stride 2009, the PLA rehearsed intervention to a depth of 2,000 kilometers, indicating that China might be prepared to intervene in either Russia or Central Asia in defense of its national interests. The Russian operational-strategic exercise, Vostok 2010 (June 29 to July 8) in the Siberian and Far East Military Districts, to which PLA observers were invited, was partly in response to Stride 2009 (EDM, July 14). Vostok 2010 was used as an opportunity to profile the “new look” and exaggerate Russian progress towards developing network-centric capabilities (still largely at a formative stage). Peace Mission 2010 reminded Moscow that Beijing actually possesses military capabilities currently lacking in the Russian conventional armed forces. China conveyed the message in the exercise that it has its disposal the capability to intervene “cleanly” in Central Asia, without the need for temporary or permanent regional basing, probably under a multilateral umbrella. Yet, the decision to showcase these capabilities may also reflect recognition in Beijing that Moscow is serious about its military reform. Moreover, in the future, there might conceivably be joint Sino-Russian network-centric operations in Central Asia, to mitigate the emergence of a resurgent regional Taliban threat in the aftermath of an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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Public Television, Private Interests

Freedom House warned on the political maneuvering around Taiwan's Public Television Service....

Freedom House urges Taiwan to safeguard the integrity of the country’s public broadcaster following the removal of its leadership.

On September 19, Taiwan’s Public Television Service Foundation, the entity that oversees the Public Television Service (PTS), took the unusual step of removing the station’s leadership, Sylvia Feng (President and CEO) and Chung Yu-yuan (Executive Vice President), just three months before their three-year terms were set to expire. The Public Broadcasting Foundation claimed that the firings were made on the basis of poor performance, an assertion that Feng and Chung reject and may challenge in court.

......

The changes at the PTS are being made within a context of a highly polemical and politically polarized media environment in Taiwan. They also come just eight weeks before the country’s important municipal elections. Wu Tsang-Rong, Director of the Administration Department, will apparently assume the position of interim director of Taiwan’s PTS.

Reporters without Borders has also criticized the move.

The struggle by the KMT to gain control of the Public Television Service (PTS) was outlined in a Taipei Times editorial from a few days ago. According to the editorial, in December of 2008, "the legislature’s Education and Culture Committee passed a resolution proposed by KMT caucus whip Lin Yi-shih (林益世) to freeze the PTS’ budget for last year unless the broadcaster gained approval from the GIO for every item on its budget request." Item by item review by the GIO essentially gives the GIO head, a political appointee, control over everything PTS does.

But that was still too much freedom for the PTS, so in June of 2009 the legislature enlarged the board of directors for the PTS. Since the PTS is funded by the GIO, the GIO instantly appointed eight new directors. You can imagine which party they supported. In September the GIO sued six of the 11 remaining directors, saying they were illegally holding meetings without the necessary quorum.

In Dec of 2009 the Control Yuan censured the GIO for increasing the number of board members, a widely criticized move. In calling for a Control Yuan investigation of these shenanigans, the Taipei Times wrote:

Adding to the controversy was last month’s dismissal of PTS Foundation president and chief executive Sylvia Feng (馮賢賢), who had worked for the station for 12 years, on grounds of incompetence by acting PTS chairman and KMT supporter Chen Sheng-fu (陳勝福). This was while, under Feng’s leadership, funds raised by the PTS skyrocketed to close to NT$10 million (US$321,000) in the second half of last year and the PTS’ viewership rate had grown from 0.03 percent in 1998 to 0.18 percent last year.

The campaign against PTS is also part of a larger campaign to gain ascendancy over the media that has unfolded since Ma took power. Another piece in the Taipei Times summed it up:

After Ma came into power, his administration changed the national news agency, the Central News Agency, so it now gives preference to the KMT’s party-state. It also forced out the chairperson and the management team of Radio Taiwan International and used placement marketing to gain total control over the media. It has also planned to curtail the independence of the National Communication Commission.

The irony of the move against the NCC is that the NCC was created under the Chen Administration in 2006 by the KMT controlled legislature to bring mass media under the control of the government. The Executive Branch, then controlled by the DPP, argued that it should have the authority to appoint NCC commission members, but the legislature clearly intended that it would have the last word on who the commission members were. Since the legislature was controlled by the KMT and its allies, the intent of the law was obvious: it was a legislative end-run around the DPP controlled executive branch intended to restore KMT control over the media and chill pro-Taiwan speech by centralizing control of the media oversight in KMT hands.

Yet even that had too much independence for this Administration to stomach.

Sylvia Feng had a piece in Apple Daily last month giving her point of view.

有人說，你們不是「自己人」，理應知難而退。是的，我不是任何政治人物的「自己人」。立委叫我們停節目，我們沒答應。新聞局叫我們跟央廣、中央社討論如何配合花博報導，我們婉謝了。大埔農民陷入困境，我們最先報導。在眾多媒體負責人向政商勢力靠攏的傳統中，我們是傻瓜與孤鳥。

Some people said: you all are not an "us", you should quit. Yes, I am not any politician's "one of us". Legislators asked us to stop a program, we didn't agree to do that. The GIO told us to discuss with the CNR and CNA to determine how to coordinate reports on the Taipei Floral Exhibtion, we declined. We were the first to report on the problems of the Tapu farmers [land seizures in Miaoli - MT] . From the standpoint of the traditional media role of something that business and government lean on, we are idiots and loners.

Today we are all idiots and loners.
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Daily Links:

• NOT TO BE MISSED: Danny Bloom's excellent piece on Taiwan's 886 international phone code.
  
• The era of great power politics in Asia isn't over.
• Intelligence agent busted for deleting files of Chinese persons of interest. Out of laziness, it said. I hope that's true.
• Hot money inflows forcing NT to rise, Central Bank intervenes.
• Reuters Factbox: Key Political Risks in Taiwan.
  
• Podcast: Our life in Taiwan: the Grand Hotel with much snark.
• A commenter alerted me to the Google Earth updated Senkaku area. If you fly over you can read the competing markers that ROC and PRC nationalists have placed there.
• James Fallows writes:

  In mentioning, earlier this afternoon, that Christine O'Donnell had claimed in 2006 to have secret-document proof of China's master plan to conquer America, I left out the context. Several readers have helpfully pointed out that she made the remarks in a primary-campaign debate -- and directed them to a primary opponent who beat her (handily) and another candidate (narrowly) to win the Republican nomination. He is a Harvard Law School graduate and Temple University Law School professor named Jan C. Ting... Stay classy, Christine!

  Ting was born in Ann Arbor, Michigan. His father was an immigrant from China who left to escape the Japanese invasion and served as a doctor in the US Army in WWII. Christine O'Donnell is beyond disgusting.
• Every married man knows it: the more women in a group, the smarter it is.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Daily Links, October 4, 2010

Lovely views out on the blogs today....

BLOGS

• Drew with our trip to Kenting this weekend. Great narrative and pics.
• Taiwan's military running out of cash.
• China's friends in Alberta.
• Michella cycling Green island
• Pat says 1911 means little to Taiwan
• Sinocentric on Hong Kong views of Taiwan independence
• A 1950s film on aid to Nationalist China in the 1950s.
• Nathan on riding the central cross in July.
• MJ with picture laden post on Dunkin Donuts in Taiwan
• Walking tours of Taipei: where things used to be.
• Laowiseass has a great time in Matsu.
• Great piece on the writing baron on Lao Deng's Dan Dan noodles.
• The Foreigner rips the stupidity of the China Post.
• Sinocentric with a great piece on nationalism in China.
  

MEDIA:

• BREAKING: It appears that the first case of NDM-1 in Taiwan has been found.
  
• WSJ: China's growing army holds sway
• Taiwan's submarine alternatives
• Fanapi led to rise in Dengue Fever cases in southern Taiwan
  
• MAC says Taiwan's 23 million people have the right to determine its future. Now that the election is on, suddenly the rhetoric shifts.
  
• Formosa Plastics has massive blaze in Chiayi, the latest in a string of woes -- we saw it from Highway 3 yesterday driving home, an immense pillar of smoke in the west.
• Desperation drives people to make absurd claims about the Senkakus.
• Apple Daily poll has Hau up 47-35 over Su in Taipei, and Chu equally big over Tsai in Xinbei.
• Tsai meanwhile hints at Presidential bid.
  
• China's growing power, from Oz. Also from a German Green. But FP writer says China staring into looming lost decade abyss.
  
• Minxin Pei at Carnegie on China's relations with its neighbors damaged by Senkakus mess.
  
• Dongsha might be a model for how the island disputes might be handled.
• Latest Taiwan What's Up out
• UN travesty: no Taiwan
  
• Europe loves Taiwanese bikes.
• AUO with billion dollar investment in China.
• Awright! Crocs loose in Taiwan!
• Paper on China's challenge to the US in the South China Sea.
• Presbyterian Church to write curriculum for "Life Education" in some local schools.
• Reality: negative rating on Taiwan remains due to debt, weaker recovery.
  

Comedy: the Nietzsche family circus
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Ma Gov't Revives ROC Claim to China

A very extraordinary document has been circulated to the foreign media -- and foreign media only -- to explain why the government has not protested to China regarding incidents in the Senkakus. The Taipei Times reports:

According to a document obtained by the Taipei Times, the government’s basic position, in the context of the ROC’s relations to China, is that the ROC has a territorial claim over the Diaoyutais and believes that the territorial dispute should be resolved through peaceful means, and not in concert with the Chinese. It also holds that fishermen’s rights are the priority.

Second, the government does not dispute China’s territorial claims to the islands because China is still part of the ROC as Article 4 of the ROC Constitution states: “The territory of the Republic of China, according to its existing national boundaries, shall not be altered except by resolution of the National Assembly.”

In addition, as the islands are effectively under the control of Japan, the incidents so far have involved Japanese patrols either expelling or detaining Taiwanese or Chinese fishing vessels involved in incidents within the territorial waters of the Diaoyutais. The disputes exist between Japan and Taiwan, or Japan and China, and do not directly involve both Taiwan and China. Therefore, there is no cause for China and Taiwan to protest against each other, but aim solely at Japan, the document says.

The document also noted that there is no dispute over territorial claims to the Diaoyutais with China under the (so-called) “1992 consensus.”

The governance of the Diaoyutais comes under the administrative jurisdiction of the Dasi (大溪) administrative unit in Toucheng Township (頭城), Yilan County, so the ROC government reserves the right to expel or detain any -Chinese fishing vessels found to be operating in commercial fishing grounds surrounding the islands jointly claimed by Taiwan and Japan, the document added.

Sources said some Cabinet members have privately expressed reservations about the interpretation expressed in the document, concerned about the implications regarding Taiwan’s position vis-a-vis the “one China” policy.

It's hard to believe that Ma himself did not approve of this, since the discussions have been held at the highest level and the Senkakus is an area Ma takes a personal interest in. Think about what it implies:

1 -- a de facto alliance between the KMT government of Taiwan and Beijing against Japan in the Senkakus. Thus the joint KMT-CCP united front is aimed at Japan. At present. Japan is probably viewed as a good target -- it is a leading exporter to China, and an important US ally, and abusing Japan stokes domestic nationalism in China. But this is an important test of the US. It should also signal to policymakers in Washington where the KMT will go if the US does not apply the brakes somewhere. Hello Washington: we told you where Ma would go. This is only the beginning, the equivalent of the KMT-CCP axis clearing its throat in front of the microphone. As Taiwan falls further into China's orbit, Beijing will only become more aggressive.

Ask yourself: despite the mad claims of some, there was never any threat of war between Taiwan and China during the Chen Administration. And even if there had been a war, the US could plausibly have abstained from participation. But the US is bound by treaty to defend Japan and the Senkakus. China will continue to test Japan with its seaborne militia, its fishing boat fleet. But more aggressive military actions are likely as well, with all the potential for stupidity igniting conflict that such moves imply. Now imagine if (Japan-educated) DPP politician Frank Hsieh were President. What would this conflict look like? Would there be one? Would Beijing have an ally in Taipei?

Yea, verily, beware the law of unintended consequences.

2 -- The ROC government "reserves the right" to expel Chinese fishing vessels. But note that it does not affirm that it will do so. Indeed, it implies that it will let such vessels carry out fishing there since both Chinas agree the Senkakus are Chinese and fishing vessels from China have just as much a right to be there as those from Taiwan.

3 -- the ROC claims it is the government of China, not merely as a kind of ideological formality, but as an active component of its foreign policy that can bring it into clashes with other nations. Welcome to the 1950s, folks.

4 -- Disagreements between Taipei and Beijing in these matters are being handled under the 1992 Consensus which does not exist and which China has indicated that it does not recognize.

4 -- what does the KMT-CCP united front aim at next? If China claims something, the ROC also claims something. Does this work in reverse? Remember the ROC still has an ambiguous claim to Mongolia, but China appears to have given up all claims. What if China decided to work this game in some other area based on an ROC claim?

5 -- On the horizon: watch for the burgeoning claim to Okinawa to begin to rear its ugly head. It's a natural concommitant of the claim to the Senkakus. No doubt claims to other islands in that area such as the Yoniguni -- the Senkakus are closer to the Yonigunis than to Taiwan -- will follow as well. At present the yearning to annex Okinawa is seldom publicly mentioned. Yet a friend of mine posted to his Facebook account the other day that in Okinawa people are already talking about China claiming Okinawa. And rabid nationalists of Chinese extraction feel that Okinawa is a "stolen territory." Just as the 20th century was spent dealing with the consequences of German unification in the 19th, so the 21st will be spent dealing with the consequences of Chinese expansion in the 20th.

6 -- domestic ramifications. It will be interesting to see what happens when a document like this makes its way into the domestic political arena amidst hard-fought battles in the November elections. The public was unhappy enough with Ma's China policies as it is.

I was sent what the sender purported was a copy of the document last night. Links are posted below in the refs. Judge for yourself.

UPDATE: Taiwan to monitor US-Japan exercises simulating retaking the Senkakus.

Taiwan's representative office in Tokyo has launched a probe into a report published Sunday by the Sankei Simbun newspaper that the United States and Japan are slated to hold a joint military exercise in November as a mock operation to retake the Tiaoyutai Islands if China occupies them, Foreign Ministry spokesman James Chang said that day.

Chang said the Republic of China's sovereignty claim over the islands is unquestionable and that the government of Taiwan will closely monitor the situation.

Refs: Document page 1, document page 2
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Joyce Conquers Kenting

This weekend I blew off all my work and took a sanity break on the east side of Kenting. Between work and rain, September had been a disappointing month for riding. With me went my partner in climb, Drew Kerslake, and his amazing wife, Joyce. This was her first long ride and her first overnight trip. She was a monster, snarfing down all the hills we fed her, and looking great in sleek cycling clothing and on a hot bike, to boot. It was humbling to ride with her, and exhilarating to glide through some of the most stunningly beautiful terrain the island has to offer. Drew's post on the ride is here.

WantChinaTimes: new site

In Taiwan one can see the Want Daily, a newspaper advocating for all things Chinese in Taiwan, run by powerful businessman Robert Tsai. Imagine if Fox News was rabidly pro-China, and you have it.

The newspaper has now launched an English website: WantChinaTimes.com. Its slogan is "Knowing China Through Taiwan."
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US and Taiwan Beef No More

Trade talks are resuming between the US and Taiwan, which is excellent news for those of us hoping that Washington will realize the future is out here in Asia. The Taipei Times says:

Taiwan and the US are set to resume negotiations on economic issues under the bilateral Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) after a three-year hiatus.

The decision was finalized after a delegation of officials from the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US Department of Commerce and the American Institute in Taiwan’s (AIT) Washington headquarters met with Taiwanese officials in Taipei during a two-day visit on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In a press release issued yesterday morning, the AIT said: “The two sides are working to finalize mutually agreeable dates for the [TIFA] meeting and are targeting late 2010 or early 2011.”

The spat over US beef sales to Taiwan has been shelved so that both sides can work on other issues. At last someone somewhere had an attack of common sense! The beef spat not only soured relations between Taiwan and the US, but also caused the fall of NSC Su Chi. It also led to some re-assessments of Ma among US analysts, I've heard.

A TIFA (Trade and Investment Framework Agreement) is often said to be an important precursor to a free trade agreement (FTA) between the two nations (US-Taiwan FTA site here but I don't know who runs it). At this point, a US-Taiwan FTA seems as unlikely as F-16 sales....
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!