KMT Chairmanship, China relations in the news...

Unloading a giant water tank as fields are burnt off in the background.

This week, with pro-China gangsters and thugs attacking Joshua Wong and other Hong Kong democracy activists arriving in Taiwan, a former Vice Chair of China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) was being interviewed in a Chinese paper. saying that the chaos in the KMT was destabilizing cross-strait relations... (Taipei Times):

Regarding Taiwanese politics, Wang said there no longer exists a force within Taiwan that could counterbalance the pro-Taiwan independence faction, adding that the only such force now lay in China.

The KMT has lost its status as one of the nation’s major political parties, and the factions favoring unification are now scattered, leaving the DPP the sole party in power, Wang said.

...

Economic sanctions against Taiwan would damage the interests of ordinary Taiwanese, Wang said, adding that Beijing should not seek to use the economy as leverage, but should instead seek to protect it.

Otherwise, China would continue to be unpopular in Taiwan, Wang said.

Interesting how first, he dismisses the KMT and says from now on China will be the principal force against Taiwan democracy. His claim that China won't punish Taiwan "economically" and protect it is of course absurd -- China is currently stealing Taiwan tech and enticing talented and skilled individuals from Taiwan to milk their knowledge and then send them home. China won't punish Taiwan economically because it would disrupt these processes.

Also interesting is that he concedes China is disliked in Taiwan.

China's refusal to talk to the DPP has, as I have noted before, placed it in a bind. The KMT is too weak at the moment, and it appears Chinese officials believe it is too weak to be of use. This means that China will have to, at some point, start talking to the DPP, probably while maintaining a verbose facade of toughness and benevolence for its home audiences.

Meanwhile lots going in the KMT. KMT Chief Deputy Chairman Steve Chan quit this week -- he was an important link to the southern/Taiwanese factions of the KMT, Solidaritytw observed on Twitter. It's that much less cement connecting the party with its factional networks in the hinterland. UPDATE: See comment on Chan below

Hau Long-bin, the former mayor of Taipei and KMT vice chairman, threw his hat in the ring for the Chairmanship election, but said if elected Chairman in 2017 he would not run for president in 2020. Of course, if he wants to run, he will arrange one of those bog-standard scenes of KMT politicians: "My followers are begging me, so I must reluctantly run for President." He also promised to make the legislative caucus head a KMT Vice Chair. Solidaritytw tweeted that it would be a big change...

Typical of Taiwan, he announced his Chairmanship candidacy on Facebook (Taiwan News), saying that he respected Hung but... (Taipei Times):

However, he has “been witnessing a party that is going downward; no matter how many mistakes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] has made, the KMT, with the exception of its caucus, seems to have become an outsider [in the political realm],” Hau wrote.

Heavyweight Wu Den-yih is holding a press conference Monday morning and will likely announce his candidacy. Readers may recall that in the run-up to the 2016 election Wu, a Taiwanese closely linked to the inner circle of KMT mainlanders, said that a fortune teller had predicted that he would be president and his wife the first lady. Obvious presidential ambitions there....

Solidaritytw reminded on Twitter that the KMT Chairmanship election rules (the KMT has rules?) call for a run-off election if no candidate gets 50% of the vote. Is this some strategy by the party elders to attempt to split the Deep Blue Old Soldier vote by offering them the son of Old Soldier idol Hau Pei-tsun as a candidate and hoping he gets more than Hung does, to force a run-off in which she finishes third? Then the run-off would be Hau vs Wu, a win either way for the mainlander elites.

But Hung has control of a large chunk of the Party machinery, and she has the backing of the Old Soldiers -- her father was not a KMT elite. To my mind she remains the frontrunner.

Want a glimpse into the KMT bubble world? Just read this piece from the Taipei Times on what went on at a conference organized by a Blue youth org....

“That the KMT still suffered electoral defeats after having followed the ‘Taiwanese nationalist party’ direction suggests it is a dead end,” Pang said, adding the KMT’s future would be dire if it continues to cling to the naive idea that being a Taiwan-centric party would help it gain the support of swing voters.

Yes, that's right. The KMT has been following a 'Taiwanese nationalist party' direction. Missed that, didn't you?

Note also their support for the 1992C with different interpretations. KMT advocacy for the "different interpretations" claim -- which Beijing has never supported -- is important. Under that rubric, the ROC has a kind of continued existence as one of the interpretations of China, with Beijing's (imagined) acceptance. That is why Hung's "one interpretation" was so ominous and strange -- it threatens that arrangement. Indeed, it almost reduces 'China' to the PRC -- though I expect she means that only the ROC is 'China'.

If Tsai comes up with some other formula and the CCP wants to talk, what happens to the "two intepretations" then? And the KMT's clinging to the faux 1992 Consensus?
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Taiwan News Number 5: KMT Chair election

A woman feeds stray dogs.

This week my piece was on the KMT's Chairmanship election, which has been moved up from Aug to May of 2107.

Potential rivals are few, and all are wounded. The "princelings," the children of KMT elites, lack appeal. Eric Chu, the current Mayor of New Taipei City, the one municipality still controlled by the KMT, performed poorly in the Presidential election and worse, is half-Taiwanese and thus suspect to many staunch mainlander voters. Hau Long-bin, the son of reactionary old KMT heavyweight Hau Pei-tsun and the former mayor of Taipei, lost an easy legislative election in 2016 in Keelung, long a KMT stronghold. Other names frequently mentioned include princeling Sean Lien, the son of heavyweight Lien Chan, who lacks appeal outside the deep Blues, and former Vice President Wu Den-yi, whose power base is in sparsely populated Nantou and who is Taiwanese. Except for Wu, who is a formidable politician with deep links throughout the party, none are likely to pose a great challenge to Hung.

I consider Wu more of a threat, in the sense that Huang Min-hui was a threat, because he is Taiwanese and can appeal to that large and dissatisfied wing. I have heard it was Wu who helped keep the KMT in line in the second Administration of Ma, when grumbling was widespread. Hau is also revered by the Old Soldiers since he is the son of the reactionary politician and general Hau Pei-tsun. But that loss in Keelung really hurt him.

After I wrote this and sent it in, Hau came out against the recent moves to change the position of the Old Soldiers in the party, indicating he is probably courting their votes. Perhaps he will run in May. If the Old Soldier votes, which determine the outcome, are split, then someone like Wu may have a chance. But in the end I still expect Hung will win. Hau may be a princeling, but the Old Soldiers can see that Hung is one of them. Moreover, Hung is an authoritarian ideologue and more KMT than the KMT, while Hau had to govern in the real world and lacks those qualities... UPDATE: Hau and Wu are leagued against Hung.

KMT-sympathetic news orgs were reporting that Ma was considering a run too. Still no new blood...

2020? Whoever becomes Chairman is automatically the next presidential candidate. I doubt the KMT will become wise enough to separate the two; the DPP certainly hasn't. Want to know who the next KMT candidates will be? Watch who makes pilgrimages to China to receive the blessing of the CCP...
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Typhoon-blown news....

A singer in a temple procession.

We are in the midst of a typhoon, and China Post has issued one of the most classic Taiwan pics evah: wedding photos in the typhoon.

Meanwhile another gale of news these last few days. First, on Wed, the pro-KMT China Post, offered the story of KMT insiders' dissatisfaction with the China policy of their presumptive presidential candidate, Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu.

According to the local United Evening News, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) has discussed Hung's proposed "one China, same interpretation" policy stance — which is seen by top officials as a deviation from party policy and popular opinion — with Ma, while key members hoped Ma would meet with Hung to discuss the matter in person. Reports say that Ma did not state whether such a meeting would take place. Instead, the president reiterated support for Hung and his belief that she did not stray from the party line on the "1992 Consensus" and "one China with different interpretations."

Recall, as I noted a couple of posts below this one, that a debate over how to frame China policy within the KMT isn't (only) a debate about China policy, but instead is a debate about the social identity of Deep Blues. More important was this bit of news/gossip hidden in the article:

Meanwhile, according to internal polls conducted by the KMT, Hung's support has fallen 5 percent, and she now trails Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) by almost 15 percent (44.7 to 30 percent). Hung's sliding performance was also the subject of discussion during a press conference held by the Cross-Strait Policy Association (CSPA, 兩岸政策協會), which released the results of a public opinion poll showing Hung's support at 19.4 percent, behind both Tsai and People's First Party Chairman James Soong.

The DPP Presidential candidate and party Chairman Tsai Ing-wen crushes both Soong and Hung in the polls. On one of the discussion groups I am on, a sharp observer of local affairs noted that the large group of undecideds is predominantly light Blues or disaffected Blues. In the three-person race, the group of undecideds shrinks, and Soong's support rises to around 20%. As this fabulous piece over at Ketagalan Media observes:

The biggest shock of all for the KMT, however, has been how actively and successfully Soong is exploiting the rift between Chinese-identifying “deep blues” of the civil service and military sectors of society, and the Taiwanese-identifying “light blues” of the local factions. Ma made the situation critical by trying to purge legislative speaker and local faction godfather Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) from office and allegedly suppressing his presidential campaign. Furthermore, Hung is salting the wounds by taking the most pro-China stance of any KMT candidate in the democratic era and expressing little concern at all for Wang’s political future.

In a radio interview last week, Soong warned the KMT against “excluding native Taiwanese comrades who have worked so hard for the party” and “upon whom the party has always depended,” and emphasized “it cannot deal with Wang Jin-pyng this way.” Pundits perceived this as a public declaration that he stands with the light blues and welcomes their support.

That piece reviews some of the history of Soong's party, the PFP. There's a certain enjoyable irony watching Soong exploit the ethnic cleavages in the KMT, after years of the KMT playing ethnic divide-and-rule games with Taiwan.

Speaking of the KMT, as we move toward Judgment Day on July 19, Eric Chu, the Chairman of the KMT from time to time, said that Hung must toe the KMT line on China policy, which she has agreed to do. He also stated that "every one of us knows" that Hung will get the nomination:

However, Chu's statement to the CSC on issues surrounding Hung also sought to eliminate uncertainty over her eventual nomination during the party's national congress on July 19.

"Every one of us knows that comrade Hung Hsiu-chu will be nominated by the party at the July 19 national party congress to become the party's presidential nominee," Chu said.

That means both Ma and Chu have said it. Hard to imagine that they will choose someone else. Storm Media said that after Judgment Day there will be a purge of KMTers who have left the party for greener pastures. I sure hope so... because bloodletting is a great way to ensure the health of something (HINT: it's what purity freaks engage in).

In addition to China policy, someone should get Hung talking about Taiwanese culture in an interview. Deep Blues like Hung are from the generation that considered Taiwanese low class, materialist, and utterly lacking in culture -- sort of the way the world looks at Americans --  and if one hangs around Deep Blues sooner or later this will come out.

In other news, Hau Lung-bin, the heavyweight KMTer and former mayor of Taipei is going to run for a legislative seat in Keelung. Hau has been suggested for seats in Taichung and Tainan -- interesting that the scoured Taiwan for a safe seat, but had to find one in Keelung, a usually solidly KMT city, whose KMT rule is being hollowed out by the same factors that have put Taoyuan into play: long-term incompetent, corrupt administration, along with demographic change: the Taipei housing bubble that is driving young people further and further out of Taipei (making Keelung a bedroom community), and the general pro-Taiwan shift in the public attitude.

Finally, don't miss Shirley Kan's great piece on arms sales to Taiwan under the Obama Administration.
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KMTitanic 11: The Captain is no longer aboard =UPDATED=

Drying the pillows in a rare moment of sunshine...

Father Byles: And God will wipe away the tears from their eyes; and there will no longer be any death; there will be no more pain; the former world has passed away.

I tore my eyes away from Richard Saunder's excellent post on Taiwan's memorial arches to contemplate the colossal wreck of the KMTitanic, around whom a bare and level ocean stretches far away...

My day began at 7 am, before my first cup of coffee, when my man Kerslake alerted me to the Apple Daily's poll news. Because I could not stop to translate, Solidarity kindly stopped for me...

In an Apple Daily poll yesterday, 54.9% of voters said they support Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱 representing the KMT in the coming presidential election. When asked for whom they would vote if the election were held tomorrow, 50.05% said they would vote for Hung, and 28.47% said they would vote for Tsai.

With the KMT launching its “anti-brick” measures for its presidential primary, Hung, the party’s sole candidate, needs to get more than 30% in polling to assure her nomination.

This poll is just a reference, Hung stated in response. A blue legislator said that Hung’s poll support and momentum have definitely grown, but this great disparity between her and Tsai is possibly attributable to the green camp “irrigating the vote” [dishonestly expressing support for Hung to force a weak candidate on the KMT] and called for the KMT’s central committee to respond carefully to this phenomenon.

The truth of the matter is that Hung won't get a vote south of Miaoli. Hung Hsiu-chu is an ideological purist of the old school, the more-KMT-than-the-KMT school. She's older than Ma Ying-jeou and of the generation that came of age under Chiang Kai-shek, and I suspect, like I believe of Ma, that her mental model of leadership is Chiang Sr., not his son Chiang Ching-kuo. A legislator since 1990, she's run only in safe districts and has been on the party list since 2008, so she doesn't have to run at all. She's never campaigned outside of Taipei... and hasn't campaigned in several years. She is tough, however, and has bucked the party's command before. In 1989 she won the primary nomination for legislator but the party central wouldn't accept it. Risking everything, she ran anyway and won. The tussle over her nomination must be a familiar experience for her...

But today? She's not out of touch -- she's so distant from everyday voters, she needs binoculars just to get a glimpse of out of touch.

You can imagine the glee with which pro-DPP poll respondents, entirely unorchestrated, said they'd prefer Hung to Tsai, obvious nonsense since polls earlier last month (hey, it's June already!) from different media organs all had Tsai crushing her by ungodly margins. The KMT has hoisted itself by its own rules petard -- as Solidarity pointed out on Twitter today, there is no way to filter the Greens out of a public poll, since they can always lie.

It's hard to know how to read all this, since many in the KMT are deeply and publicly opposed to her candidacy, but things clarified slightly when the news arrived this morning that KMT Chairman Eric Chu, once the savior, now mere mortal, announced he was taking a three week vacation. The KMT news organ has the call (Solidarity as well):

At the same time, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) announced that he would take three weeks off, absenting himself from three weekly sessions of the Central Standing Committee (CSC) starting from this Wednesday. KMT Vice Chairman Hao Long-bin (郝龍斌) will chair the meetings in Chu’s absence. A KMT insider said, “It’s really weird that the Chairman has decided to take three weeks off at such a crucial time,” leading many to suspect that Chu was taking time off so as not to be involved in presidential primary using a technicality. A KMT senior executive explained that Chu could not preside over the CSC for the next three weeks because Chu would be interpellated in the New Taipei City Council until June 17, adding that if the party needed to decide whether to nominate Hung or draft someone else on Wednesday, June 17, “the party central will negotiate with the New Taipei City Council to make Chu available to preside over the CSC.”

“the party central will negotiate with the New Taipei City Council to make Chu available to preside over the CSC.” Man, that's a classic of bureaucratic piety. Poor KMT executive was like a B-17 bracketed by searchlights over Berlin...

Yep. In the middle of the nomination process, with no candidate and the party in total disarray, Eric Chu is taking a three week break. It's almost like he doesn't want to be Chairman or something, as if he were begging someone in the KMT to stage a putsch in his absence. Maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with the Hung candidacy. Solidarity observed:

What’s more, if Chu hadn’t overturned Hau’s decision to have Hung hold policy briefings elsewhere and then run her poll at the end of the month, the meetings he’s skipping wouldn’t be so crucial. There is a bad-fanfiction-like lack of continuity from day to day right now.

As Chu lurches from unfathomable decision to unfathomable decision, the Hung mess is looking symptomatic of a deep split in the KMT. The way I am interpreting this at the moment, Chu is facing opposition from the Deep Deep Blues, the purist, ideological KMTers like Hau Pei-tsun, the former Premier, and Ma Ying-jeou. Ordinarily antagonistic (there's even a fringe of far right-wingers who claim Ma is a closeted independence supporter) they are united in one thing: Chu is not KMT enough for them. He's married to a Taiwanese, and even though his father-in-law is a big deal in Tainan politics and in the KMT, it's not enough. Hung is the only candidate who can pass their ideology and ethnicity tests. From what I can see, Chu can't get anything done because the direction of reform can only to be to make the party a Taiwanese party, and the mainlander clique at the top will never accept that. This three week vacation is Chu's way of throwing up his hands and saying "Alright, you do it your way."

Although KMT Sec-Gen Lee Si-chuan will be running the party, I am also beginning to wonder if Hau Lung-bin the son of Deep Blue stalwart Hau Pei-tsun is being pushed forward now as a de facto replacement for Chu by the mainlander core, to prevent the KMT from becoming Taiwanese and preserve the power of the Deep Blue core, or is perhaps seizing the moment because Hau knows they will support him, since he too has the right ethnicity, parents, and ideological commitments.

Anyway you slice it, the "Chu is waiting for 2020" interpretation of his actions has taken a beating in the last few weeks. There's no way anyone is going to forget this period of mismanagement. Perhaps it is as simple as my man FM has maintained for the last six months: Chu doesn't want to be president.

In fact, it's looking like he doesn't want to be Chairman either.

Anyone know where I can buy a commercial grade popcorn machine? Because that's what I am going to need if the KMT keeps giving me days like this.

UPDATE: Great comment below:

Anonymous an angry taiwanese said...
quote Frozen Garlic (post 2010/11/13) The first speaker I saw was legislator Hong Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱. She gave a stunningly radical speech. It went something like this:

In 2000, we lost governing power, and it was painful. We had eight years of hate. Hate.

The moment when KMT ring Hong Hsiu-chu's nomination bell is the moment this Garlic post become immortal. (https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2010/11/13/campaign-trail-hau-rally/)

Read the whole post to get the flavor of who she is. All this will come out if she actually runs.

UPDATE 2: Maddog directed me to a video of her claim that violence is in the DPP's DNA, juxtaposed with her own acts of violence.

Recent sightings of the good ship KMTitanic: 
Hung? Really? -- Comedy and ethnicity in The Rational Party -- KMTitanic 10: the ship is foundering -- Wang out -- Chu goes there? -- Rounding up the KMT again -- KMTitanic 8: Chu = monkey wrench -- KMTitanic 7: Existential Crisis --  KMT Shorts -- Chu Notes -- KMTitanic 5: Struggling for the Northern Lifeboats -- Chu Political Theatre -- KMTitanic 4 -- KMTitanic 3 -- KMTitanic 2 -- KMTitanic 1 -- Chu's Revolutionary Reforms?
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Chu notes + Links

@FormosaNation on Twitter sent around these two polls from SETV. The bottom one shows that 64.3% of New Taipei City voters, where Eric Chu, the chairman of the KMT and likely Presidential candidate is Mayor, would prefer that Chu finish out his term. The top one shows that among Blue voters in New Taipei City, 56.3% don't want him to run for president (neither do 85% of the Green voters, naturally, since Chu is a formidable opponent).

New Taipei City is the biggest municipality in Taiwan, so if Chu gives up his mayoralty and runs for Prez, lots of voters are going to punish him.

If he doesn't run, and instead runs someone less popular, like Wang Jin-pyng, Hau Lung-bin, or (please please please) Wu Den-yi, the KMT will likely lose. If the party loses, it is traditional -- the Chairman must resign (as Chairman Ma Ying-jeou actually did after the crushing November defeat). Not resigning, especially if the KMT takes a beating in the legislature, may be difficult to pull off. Since Chu has handed off the day-to-day running of the KMT to Hau Lung-bin, the former Taipei mayor, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Hau will emerge as the frontrunner for the most powerful position in the KMT if Chu resigns. As Chair Hau can do grievous harm to Chu's chances in 2020 if Hau wants a shot at the presidency himself. Note that Hau is running the selection committee for KMT legislative candidates, meaning that many people picked will owe Hau a favor.

Surely Chu has considered this...

UPDATE: My man Ben observes to me:

If Chu doesn't run and KMT lose then Chu won't be to blame no? If Chu runs and loses then has to resign then Hau for 2020

A loss either way will likely result in a Chu resignation, IMHO. Others comments?
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Daily Links:

• LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT
• Water prices in Taipei to rise after 21 years. Finally. TVBS polled consumers on water prices.
• LED lit indoor, pesticide-free farms come to Taiwan
• This blog has some old pics of Jingguashih Copper mine and discussion of its history in English (scroll down).
• NZ exports to Taiwan rise.
• Weirdness. Selling on Steam now: A Japanese anime game in which the characters wind up in the 2-28 massacre.
• Taiwan Air Blog on stats for US bombing of Formosa in WWII
• Drew on the Tour de Tai-yawn and Drug Cheats
• China pushing US toward more arms sales

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

KMTitanic IV: Captain to the Bridge! =UPDATED=

Pro-democracy NGO hands out Taiwan Democracy porridge in Taichung to commemorate one year anniversary of Sunflowers.

Brock Lovett: 26 years of experience working against him. He figures anything big enough to sink the ship they're gonna see in time to turn. The ship's too big with too small a rudder. It doesn't corner worth a damn. Everything he knows is wrong.

In Taiwan culture the answer to all problems of social and organizational order is "more control". The KMT has once again turned to this approach. UDN reports that the KMT has "reformed" its legislator selection process, turning it over to a central 7 person committee instead of leaving it up to the local KMT chapters (read factions). The committee is made up of Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌), Huang Min-hui (黃敏惠), Lee Si-chuan (李四川), Tseng Yung-chuan (曾永權), Chien Tai-lang (簡太郎), Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), Liao Liao-yi (廖了以). This is not a gang of young, perceptive leaders in touch with the changing society in Taiwan.

It means that the KMT is not going to make meaningful reforms. Instead they are tightening central party control over the periphery. Solidarity.tw opined that this would simply cause more local factions to bolt and run as third party candidates, hurting the KMT. Work out the logic: in many places the choices for legislators will lack support for the local factions. This will both reduce the resources that local factions are willing to commit to the KMT, and also encourage them to run own-candidates as independents if they are sufficiently annoyed, hurting the KMT. If the KMT were an actual political party, and not the political organization of a colonial ruling class, the local factions would have more say. Instead, it looks as if the KMT is reducing their say. UPDATED: the response to the Committee was so negative that Chu was forced to say yesterday that the process for choosing would be open and transparent. We'll see...

Perhaps the KMT is gambling, as some are saying, that the power of local factions has waned, especially with the growth of municipalities whose administrative positions are appointed by the mayor.

The committee convener is Hau Lung-bin, the former mayor of Taipei, and a second generation mainlander, the son of the far right Chinese nationalist and former Premier Hau Pei-tsun. In most committees in organizations on the island, the decision is made by the leader and the committee's purpose is to ratify his decisions. Thus control remains in the hands of the KMT's mainlander elites. The elites are tightening their control as a response to the KMT's sinking chances.

This could be read as a positive for the island, if the KMT appoints clean non-faction candidates and then compels the factions to support them. Hard to imagine how that can work. Hau promised a couple of weeks ago that the legislative candidates would have plenty of new faces. If that is true, the local factions are going to be angry...

In other news,

Three-term Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Hung-chih (林鴻池) on Friday said he would not seek re-election in next year’s legislative election — which is set to be held in tandem with the presidential election — adding new fuel to the ongoing speculation that KMT Chairman and New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫) will run for president.

Lin has been widely rumored to run for mayor of New Taipei City in a by-election if Chu decides to run for president, but he declined to comment on “hypothetical questions,” saying he made the decision mainly because he wanted to yield the opportunity to the younger generation.

If Chu doesn't run, the KMT won't have much of a chance of victory. The pressure on him is enormous. Looking forward to that bit of political theatre in which the great man's followers beg him to run, which he accepts reluctantly in order to serve. Awwww.....

Meanwhile, the KMTitanic sails into the night. TVBS, the pro-KMT news station is out with a poll showing what everyone else is finding (kudos to them, their polls have mightily improved). Tim maddog summed things up on Facebook:

Feb. 2015 TVBS (deep-blue!) poll:
• 36% hope DPP takes power in 2016
• Only 19% hope it's KMT.
Main parties' satisfaction rating:
• DPP: 43%
• KMT: 10%
• 73% feel the KMT values the party's benefits over the public's.
• Only 43% feel that way about the DPP
• Over double the number (45%) feel DPP is trustworthy compared to KMT (22%).

Other numbers are mostly similar. Even my sadistic pessimistic streak is cringing in wonder at these numbers. But it's a long 10 months before election night...

Previous KMTitanic entries:
KMTitanic III: But this ship can't sink!
KMTitanic II: Iceberg in sight, no change of course
KMTitanic I: Chu rearranges the deck chairs
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Daily Links:

• WantWant has piece on formation of pro-nuke group among Taiwanese students as anti-nuke protests take place across Taiwan yesterday.
• As my man maddog noted, the KMT's WWII commemorations are out of touch with the public
• PRC expert says if DPP wins Beijing will cut relations with Taiwan
• Chinese tourists crimes increase.
• Taiwan and Canada: shared values
• A symbol of China's burgeoning power: ICAO head is Chinese. More trouble for Taiwan.
• VC Lee Kaifu on Taiwan's entrepreneurs in Commonwealth.
• Woman killed when huge tile slabs fall off UDN building. Falling debris is common problem, as end of article notes.
• Jens Kastner with a good article on myopia in Taiwan
• Taiwan to recruit more Vietnamese workers. Vietnam is where 8 of 10 naturalized ROC citizens come from.
• Article on the Maori and Taiwan aborigine connection from NZ.
• Ma Ying-jeou's nephew, a US Green Beret, interviewed in 2014.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Ko Wen-je VS the Construction-Industrial State: Ko wins one

Beachcombing in Hsinchu.

Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je is rocking the construction-industrial state. The Taipei Times reports...

The Taipei Dome and Farglory’s contract had become a source of controversy in recent days as Ko and his administrative team began looking at several major projects either underway or in the proposal stage.

Prior to last night’s meeting, Ko had said the Dome contract would have to be revised to increase the penalties for failing to meet deadlines. He also said discrepancies between the initial contract terms during the bidding process and the firm’s final contract needed to be discussed.

“Farglory has already gone past the deadline for completing the project, in violation of the contract,” Ko said earlier yesterday, adding that the original contract’s penalty clauses “do not have any real impact,” because they only allow the city government to fine the firm a total of NT$3 million (US$95,300) for violations.

Hacking on the previous administration, Ko pointed out that Control Yuan asked that 39 articles in the contract be revised, but the previous KMT administration had not done so. Former KMT Mayor Hau had used the infamous you-do-not-understand attack to defend himself from Ko's exposure of his administration's apparent embrace of big companies...

Countering criticism leveled at several projects undertaken during his administration, former Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) yesterday accused Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) and his team of using “defamatory” tactics to hide their “ignorance” of municipal issues.

Hau also defended himself by saying that everything had been done according to the law and passed the ethics commission. Such reviews in Taiwan are typically prima facie. KMT Chair Eric Chu has asked Hau to take over the National Policy Foundation, the KMT's internal think tank. Hau is a princeling, like Chu, another clue that "reform" under Chu is going to be limited to revamping and further locking down the Party's relationships with the local factions so they don't bolt. ADDED: Yam ripped him in an editorial solidarity.tw captured.

So far, this is my favorite Ko moment:

Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) yesterday said he has ordered all Taipei City Government departments to draft a complete list of all municipal property, after discovering that the controversial bus lane on Zhongxiao W Road includes a bus stop that is not listed as belonging to the city.

Ko also said he'd can the Taipei police chief if pro-PRC "protesters" in front of Taipei 101 continued their violent assaults on people; the chief subsequently retired, along with a fire department official. Ko is making everyone else administrating a county/city look bad. Commonwealth interviewed him in December shortly after his election victory.

BTW, some of you may recall that the Tax Bureau was pursuing Ko's family in a totally non-political case. Yesterday it dinged his parents for $31,200 NT. This is a symbolic figure -- once it was committed to the apparent harassment, it had to fine them, but if it had been a large amount, that would have called further attention to the fact that Ko's family was being pursued in a totally non-political case.

Mayor Lin Jia-long of Taichung killed the Taiwan Tower project in Taichung when its budget nearly doubled. Should that be read as a genuine commitment to curbing the construction-industrial state? Or just a one-off designed to make Lin look like he is doing a Ko Wen-je in Taichung, using a bad project with no great construction-industrial state support? For me the jury is still out on Lin. Another major project Lin has criticized, the BRT, saw an inevitable accident today.

Up and Coming for the KMT: As the TT reports, during the run up to the KMT Chairmanship election Chu hinted that he'd end the Party's assault on one of its most loyal servants, Legislative Speaker and longtime heavyweight Wang Jin-pyng (MaWangMess, MaWangMess). A group of legislators has proposed that the KMT withdraw its appeal of the court ruling that permitted Wang Jin-pyng to retain his position in the Party and in the legislature. Chu has delayed a response, but if he drops the appeal, it will be another declaration of Chu breaking with President and former KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (like his elimination of Ma's Zhongshan Council and return of power to the Central Standing Committee), who has been doing his Saruman-in-Orthanc imitation since the crushing defeat of the KMT in November. In fact the China Post report has Chu specifically saying he "respects Ma's authority", showing that Chu also views this issue as one that puts himself and Ma in conflict. The Ma-Wang mess really harmed the KMT's relations with its legislators. Surely Chu must sense the urgent need to fix that, and will drop the appeal. If not, then we know something about him and his relations with the KMT.
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Daily Links:

• Gerrit van der Wees of FAPA on US-Taiwan relations, other issues (video)
• Watch out! local monkeys harbor Herpes B.
• WantWant: Eric Chu must staunch KMT hemorrhage.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Local KMT officials Oppose the 4th Nuclear Plant

Mayor Hau of Taipei came out this week against the Fourth Nuclear Plant... (Taipei Times)

Hau became the first local government head from the pan-blue camp to declare his stance on the nuclear issue by saying on Thursday that he would vote “yes” in a national referendum asking voters if construction and operation of the plant should be suspended.

His announcement prompted President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to call him on Thursday night to discuss his stance on the power plant. Ma met him yesterday in the Presidential Office to continue their discussion on the issue.

Presidential Office spokesperson Lee Chia-fei (李佳霏) said Ma and Hau exchanged opinions on the construction of the power plant, alternative sources of energy and the potential impact on the economy if the plant is suspended.

“The president said whether or not the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant should be suspended is a crucial issue, and the public must be given sufficient information to help them make the final decision,” she said.

Hau yesterday said he opposed the construction of the power plant because of the state-owned Taiwan Power Co’s (Taipower) poor quality control over the plant and its failure to solve the problem of storing nuclear waste.

The Taipei Times article also added, strangely, a comment from Premier Jiang Yi-hua....

At a question-and-answer session at the legislature yesterday, Premier Jiang Yi-huah (江宜樺) said that he, the president, New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫) and Hau were in frequent contact with each other to exchange views about the power plant.

“We all share the same position,” Jiang said when answering questions from KMT Legislator Hsu Shao-ping (徐少萍).

"We all share the same position? Jiang has said that he would die before letting plant construction halt. Hau wants it halted. Meanwhile New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu has registered lukewarm opposition to it, raising the waste issue.

What do Jiang, Hau, and Chu have in common? They are all mentioned in speculation regarding who will be the 2016 KMT presidential candidate. Jiang is an unlikely dark horse, while Hau probably could not get many votes south of Taipei. But it looks like we are watching everyone attempting to position themselves -- and the move of Hau and Chu to look like they are opposing the plant is solid evidence for where the sentiments of the public lie.

The New Taipei City Council, where the plant will be located, has also approved a measure calling for a halt to construction (KMT news organ).
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Daily Links:

• How to unload a truck in Taiwan (video 1:33)
• Frozen Garlic discusses women in Taiwanese elections
• Taiwan in Cycles on Taiwan's faux commitment to cycling.
• People in I-lan must be so happy Chen Ding-nan refused that naptha cracker. It's a monster.
• Legal alternatives for shuttering the nuclear plant.
• DPP Plans 1000 anti-nuke events
• This year, US drought will be worse. Food prices, inflation, and global political stability.... all taking a hit.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Mayor Hau making a move for 2016?

Some interesting news about Mayor Hau of Taipei this week. First, Hau suggested that former President Chen Shui-bian, in ill health after being jailed for defeating the KMT in open elections after being convicted of corruption, be let out on medical parole. This astonishing burst of friendliness on Hau's part received the Chen family's thanks this week....

Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) yesterday expressed his thanks to Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) for his public endorsement of Chen’s medical parole request and applauded Hau for his courage and vision in raising the issue.

Chen’s son, Chen Chi-chung (陳致中), yesterday visited his father in prison and said the former president praised Hau for “possessing the character and manners of a national leader” by proposing to grant him medical parole.

... "the character and manners of a national leader." Some quid pro quo there from the President's son? Hau looked to be making a move for the 2016 presidential candidacy with the suggestion, courting pan-Green votes.

This week, after the typhoon blasted the south, Hau made another seemingly  Presidential move to court southern voters. Local news reported (China Times) that Hau had offered residents of Tawu township and Green Island in Taitung money to rebuild after the disaster, later increasing the offer to include Hengchun, Checheng, and other townships in Pingtung. In addition to spending $3000-5000 per household in the affected townships, Taipei city government had also sent $3000 each to 200 households in Hualien. The funds came from emergency funds held by the Taipei government. A spokesman denied that this outpouring came with the 2016 election in mind, and said that it would be offered to anyplace in Taiwan in similar trouble.

Looking at 2016? Hau is a scion of a powerful KMT figure: his father was the regressive right-winger Hau Pei-tsun, an architect and maintainer of Taiwan's notorious security state in the martial law era, and a longtime holdout against democratization. Hau himself served in the first Chen Shui-bian administration, and of course Taipei city mayor has long been considered the springboard to the presidency, since Chen, Ma, and Lee all held that position. Keep your eyes on the prize: the race for the 2016 KMT candidacy is wide open.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Hau's that again?

The most recent Taipei mayor election TVBS poll. According to question three, a bloc of KMT voters is voting Hau even though they think he's not as competent as Su. Question 2, of likely voters, shows the numbers across the last few polls -- basically they are running neck and neck.

The Taipei Times ran a story today entitled Hau Blames Prosecutors for Poll Drop. It said:

With the latest poll showing rivals for the Taipei mayoral seat running neck-and-neck, Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) yesterday stepped up his criticism of prosecutors, saying their high-profile raids of city government offices in relation to the Xinsheng Overpass scandal was costing him vital voter support.

Hau blamed the searches for the drop in his support rate in recent polls conducted by his campaign team, and said he was willing to take a polygraph or handwriting test to facilitate the investigation.

.....

Hau, of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), said that in polls conducted by his team, his support rate dropped significantly every time news about the prosecutors’ searches of the Taipei City Government came out.

Perhaps the KMT internals really show that Hau is taking a beating because of the investigation, but the TVBS polls has had the two basically neck and neck since the beginning, despite the slight bump for Su in the last poll. Hau might squeak by because of Blue tribalism in Taipei, but fundamentally he is not a strong candidate, and he doesn't seem to able to overcome his own limitations. In fact if Hau gave the investigation less prominence and concentrated more on positives, he might be able to move past it.

Hau was responding to the latest search, Oct 5:

The Taipei District Prosecutors Office yesterday searched the office and residences of Yang Hsi-an, Taipei City Government Secretary General, in the wake of the alleged Xinsheng Overpass Rejuvenation project scandal. Wang Wen-teh, one of the head prosecutors, stated that Yang was not a suspect, and the purpose of search was to “assure the entirety of a third party’s evidence.”

According to media reports, the prosecutors yesterday wanted to find out the truth about how Chen Chih-sheng, former section chief of the Taipei City New Construction Department, obtained a memo which was seized during a search of his office. The other purpose for yesterday’s search was to clarify whether or not Taipei City Hall had invited bidders to participate in the project or driven up the budget for the Xinsheng Overpass Rejuvenation project.

Ironically, the China Post says it was Hau himself who asked the prosecutors to intervene to clear up the matter.
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Daily Links:

• Taipei Times rips the rubber stamp EPA
• Shore up US-Taiwan Relations in IBD. Great piece is like a primer of what to do -- except for the F-16s, all very doable. I also like the clever title -- now that Two-China Tensions Have Abated. True, but independence tensions haven't, have they?
  
• Chinese Dissident wins Nobel Peace Prize. ‎"Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said it would be "totally wrong" for "such a person" to win the Nobel Peace Prize, - the comment was later scrubbed from the official transcript of the briefing." Haha. The world wonders: What will Ma Ying-jeou say?
• How China Plays the Great Game: China wins when the US loses Afghanistan. How long have I been saying that? Newsweek notices the sea-change in China.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Taipei Race Still Tight

As we batten down the hatches for typhoon Fanapi here on The Beautiful Isle, a China Times poll finds the DPP's Su slightly ahead of KMT Mayor Hau for the Nov election in that city. Hau has taken a beating from a steady drumbeat of DPP criticism of corruption in the city's procurement system. The Taipei Times reports:

Amid a string of procurement scandals related to the Taipei International Flora Exposition and the Xinsheng Overpass, Hau on Monday announced he had approved the resignation of his deputy mayor Lee Yong-ping (李永萍), adviser Chuang Wen-ssu (莊文思) and Chuang’s wife, Ren Shiao-chi (任孝琦), a secretary in Hau’s office.

The move came weeks after the city government was accused of buying flowers for the Taipei International Flora Expo and drainage piping for the Xinsheng Overpass at highly inflated prices. The city government’s slow response to the allegations only exacerbated the situation and hurt Hau’s image, costing him support in opinion polls less than three months before the election.

A poll conducted by the Chinese-language China Times suggested yesterday that Hau’s election opponent, Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) of the DPP, now enjoys a support rate of 41 percent, two percentage points ahead of Hau.

The poll is more interesting than that. The KMT news site has it. The China Times poll also asked people who they thought would win: Su over Hau 43-27 in that one. China Times also polled on The City Formerly Known As Taipei County. The KMT's Chu was up 42-38 over the DPP's Tsai, and when asked who they thought would win, voters gave the nod to Chu, 38.5 to 32.7. It's incredible that after the solid performance turned in by the DPP in many years of rule, and the dismal display of inepitude by the KMT's Chou Hsi-wei, the current magistrate, people would be thinking of voting KMT. But Chu cuts a solid technocratic figure. Apple Daily has him up a decisive eight points over Tsai.

Interestingly, the fact that both Chu and Hau are sons of powerful KMT politicians seems not to have any effect on the vote for them. Such nepotism appears to be thought natural by voters.

Voters are being wooed with promises of Enviro-leisure. For example, Eric Chu, the KMT candidate for The City Formerly Known As Taipei County, released his platform the other day. It's a nice mix of pork and middle-brow enviro-leisure:

Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) Sinbei mayoral candidate Eric Chu (朱立倫) yesterday pledged he would work to greatly expand the area covered by pathways and bicycle lanes, if elected in November, as part of his policy to develop tourism.

Just hours after he officially registered his candidacy with the Central Election Commission yesterday morning, Chu’s campaign office released a nine-point policy guide on tourism, the latest major policy announcement following earlier pledges to expand the MRT system and provide discounts to seniors.

In the five-page document, Chu said he would create new low-speed limit tourist roads in major scenic destinations along the coast and in areas including Danshui Township (淡水) and near Keelung. He added that, if elected, he would push for the construction of a 120km-long ocean-side bicycle path along the northern coastline.

A 120 km bike path would be awesome and I hope it happens. Chu's campaign focuses on increasing tourism -- many Taipei county destinations are already tourist meccas, such as Yingge (ceramics), Danshui (riverside), and Pinglin (tea). Chu wants to run spur lines into smaller tourist communities to bring in the masses -- an example of this are the short lines to Jiji in central Taiwan and to Neiwan (Hakka culture) in northern Taiwan. Chu also wants to build 80 kms of metro tracks in Taipei county. Hard to see how the budget for that would ever materialize....

The DPP's Su Tseng-chang in Taipei released a plan for Taipei the other day.

He proposed 10 strategies to make the capital greener, prettier and healthier, including constructing leafy boulevards, planning mid and long-term green infrastructure and constructing more “green corridors” connecting the city’s parks and MRT stations.

Su urged voters to let him win the Taipei mayoral election to counter the speculation that he was not committed to the November poll and was using the mayoral race as a springboard for a possible candidacy in the 2012 presidential election.

The proposals are aimed squarely at middle class independents, many of whom who vote the KMT by default, who can be swayed by appeals to modernity, leisure, and greening the built environment. At present Su enjoys a solid lead in that demographic. The basic strategy of the this triple appeal is the same as Chu's.

Take care of yourselves this weekend!
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Daily Links:

• The shape of things to come: AU Optronics in LCD joint venture with some boys from Brazil. This is exactly what Taiwan should be doing.
• Barking Deer with news on treks.
• Michella goes paragliding in Luye, one of Taiwan's most beautiful places.
• In the wake of the rape of a high school student in a bathroom, the TRA is mulling cameras on trains.
• Government giving big bucks to young riders to promote environmentalism through biking. Go apply!
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Su passes Hau in TVBS poll

The latest TVBS poll has the numbers for Taipei city, where the DPP's Su is now ahead of the beleaguered KMT mayor Hau Lung-bin 45-42 with two months to go to the election on Nov 27.

In August Hau was up 45-42 over Su.

Note that in the current poll Su wins 47-24 among independents. Hau is slightly more popular with women (say what?). TVBS even breaks it out ethnically -- among Hoklos, Su is up 53-35, among Hakkas, Hau leads 48-41, and among mainlanders, Hau leads 69-21.

Another key stat: among voters in the 2006 mayor election, Su wins 96% of the DPP votes AND 26% of the KMT vote. Recall that Hau's vote total in 2006 was only 4,000 more than the highest DPP vote total, in 1998 for Chen Shui-bian (against Ma). 63% of the KMT voters will vote again for Hau, while 10% of that KMT electorate remains undecided.

Asked who would make the better mayor, voters pick Su 47-30 with 23% undecided.
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Daily Links

• DPP candidate Su Chia-chuan meeting in Taichung and other Su videos.
  
• Time on doing business in China. Did you know the EU exports more to Switzerland than to China? Isn't it great that we have ECFA with a nation that practices state capitalism for the benefit of CCP princelings and their lackeys?
• Couples marry in mass wedding at 9:09 on 9/9/99.
  
• It's a good thing the US has decided to let China bankrupt itself with wasted spending on useless renewable energy technology, instead of smartly investing in a short, victorious war in Afghanistan like our wise American leaders.
• Not Taiwan: Pakistan: perhaps the worst floods in recorded history ignored by the media and by America, says Juan Cole. At DKOS an excellent post on the Pakistan floods with extensive satellite imagery of the now-massive Indus, which has cut a new course and created a gigantic lake.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Dancing Bureaucrats Promote Floral Expo

I wasn't planning on blogging today but this story is just too hilarious to pass up. To promote the Flower Expo, which commences in November, for the next three months, certain Taipei City government employees must do a 30 second dance each morning.

After the Taipei City Government “encouraged” staffers to promote the Taipei International Flora Expo, civil servants at 12 district offices and household registration offices yesterday started the day by joining the “flora expo dance,” confusing residents who visited their offices.

Civil servants have been practicing the 30-second dance, aimed at promoting the expo, in their offices during lunch hours or after work since last month, with the city’s Department of Civil Affairs asking all district offices to start dancing this month when offices opened and to invite the residents to join in the “fun.”

I think I must go now to medicate with alcohol....
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Flower Show Blues Impact Taipei Mayoral election

Up in Taipei the KMT Hau Administration, in a brutal election battle with the DPP over the mayorship, is taking a beating over the international flower expo in Taipei. The Taipei Times notes:

Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) made his first response on Tuesday by revealing the prices of flowers used and saying that the city’s Department of New Construction paid about two times the market price for the flowers. However, Hau defended the incident as merely “administrative negligence” from civil officials, and slammed the DPP for politicizing the issue.

The Hau team’s failure to offer a clear explanation of the matter and thoroughly review the purchase plan presented the DPP with opportunities to issue more attacks, digging out more information to accuse the city government of paying up to 30 times the market price for flowers and turning the incident into a threat to Hau’s re-election bid in November’s special municipality elections.

“The civil servants who oversaw the purchase plans were either blind, or took kickbacks to have paid such ridiculously high prices for flowers. However, I think what’s more ridiculous is the city government’s slow and sloppy responses to the issue,” People First Party Taipei City Councilor Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) said.

These issues are hurting Hau at the polls. Apple Daily has Su Tseng-chang (DPP) up over Hau (KMT) 45-43, while TVBS has Hau up 51-49. TVBS notoriously underestimates pan-Green votes in its polls -- I'd argue that at this point Su is beating Hau. Hau also took a hit when it was revealed that water pipes for an overpass were purchased at several times the market price. The city government further muddied the waters when it said that the high-priced flowers were purchased for the overpass, not the expo.

The Flower Expo, which is slated to open on Nov 6 just ahead of the Nov 27 election, has a US$300 million budget. The Hau Administration had hoped to use the exhibition to gain leverage in the election, but it appears that just the opposite has happened. As the Taipei Times noted in an editorial:

Something smells in Taipei — and it’s not the 25 million flowers and plants purchased to decorate the city for the upcoming flora expo. Rather, it is Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) scrambling to explain why the city paid 30 times market price for the greenery to a contractor with ties to his Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) administration. In recent days, investigators have also uncovered what appears to be the overpricing of building materials. It is ironic that Hau initiated the multi-billion-dollar project to boost his re-election bid in November.

The Flower Expo is the latest in very long string of failures that have occurred in Taipei under the Hau Administration. The Hau Adminstration, and Hau himself, are so lackluster that in rabidly Blue Taipei Hau is vulnerable. This public fail is on top of the very public failures like the Neihu metro line and the gondola project, and takes place amid long-term public frustration over rising housing prices in Taipei, now out of reach for most middle class Taiwanese. It is no wonder that, as a taxi driver put it the other day, there may be a change in the weather in Taipei come november.
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Year-end Elections: DPP makes gains

Lots of bad news this week for Mayor Jason Hu of Taichung. But first, a quick look at the north, where the DPP's Su and Tsai are hot on the heels of their KMT counterparts. The prediction market at NCCU, usually fairly accurate, said that...

On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of DPP candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the Taipei City poll grew from NT$45 to NT$48 yesterday. The bidding price of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) jumped from NT$51 last month to NT$53 yesterday.

In Sinbei City, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is making good progress since announcing her candidacy on May 23. Her price has grown from NT$42 to NT$49.43 yesterday.

The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped from NT$59 to its lowest level over the past two months at NT$49.87 after Tsai announced her candidacy. It rebounded to NT$52 yesterday.

This dovetails with other information, including public polls and previous election returns, that shows that the elections in the north will be tight and difficult to predict. It's going to be a fascinating next few months.

Tsai and Chu are running in The City Formerly Known As Taipei County, Xinbei (New North City). Here's the data from the Taipei County magistrate elections for 2005, 2001, and 1997. Note that in 1997 there was no PPP and an independent candidate grabbed a significant portion of the vote, and in 2001 the New Party was the only Blue party. I don't see a real trend there, except that each party appears to have a base corresponding to about 40% of the electorate. Those middle 20% votes are going to be bitterly fought over.....

2005

• KMT: 988,739 (54.87%)
• DPP: 798,233 (44.30%)

2001

• New: 820808 (48.2%)
• DPP: 874495 (51.3%)

1997

• TOTAL BLUE: 576,418: KMT: 543516 (38.7%), New: 32902 (2.3%)
  
• IND: 257582 18.3
• DPP: 571658 (40.7%)

One thing I'd really like is more information on is demographic changes since the last election. Have middle class pro-KMT government workers moved out to Taoyuan, changing the demographics of the county? Has the building boom attracted more light Blues into Taipei County? Or what?

Meanwhile, with the southern municipalities of Kaohsiung and Tainan widely seen as DPP locks, Taichung had been thought to be a KMT shoo-in given the popularity of Mayor Hu and the money being spread around the city due to public construction. But the local government's intimate involvement with organized crime was dramatically highlighted in a hit on a gangster in Taichung city at which four police officers were present (the Liberty Times claimed today that new revelations say 9 policeman were present, playing Mahjong with the target, and the hitter was probably from China). ETaiwan News said (via ESWN, who has video links):

Taichung's convenient geographic location and the business-friendly environment has made the central city a favored location for organized criminal gangs to set up operational bases. The police force is both insufficient large and equipped and law enforcement has never been effective. Murders, shootings, kidnaps and fights among gangsters have been rampant in Taichugn under Hu's administration, but the "Achilles's Heel" has been the failure of the city government to enforce stricter discipline and effectively investigate and crack down on alleged corruption between the police and the organized crimes.

The controversial case of four police officers hiding in a gun shop while the murder took place revealed the dark side of the local police force and the failuure of the city's police commander to promptly report this incident to Hu revealed a grave lack of internal discipline and exposed Hu's powerlessness. The eruption of this scandal coincided with the KMT's nomination of Hu for mayor of the merged Taichung municipality and triggered a plunge in his approval ratings from 56 percent in March to 46 percent and the gap between Hu and DPP nominee Su Chia-chyuan has considerably narrowed even before Su has truly launched his campaign. Su may well take advantage of Hu's woes by highlighting his own robust administrative record in cracking down on crime during eight years as Pingtung County mayor and his experience as interior minister.

Taichung's lawlessness is proverbial, but voters have never appeared to be influenced by the crime rate. The Taipei Times piece on the prediction market noted:

Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continued to lead in Greater Taichung, but the gap is narrowing, especially after the shooting of a gang leader in the city late last month. The market showed that since the DPP nominated Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) on May 23, the probability of the DPP candidate winning grew from NT$35 to NT$37.

The possibility of Hu winning dropped dramatically from NT$77 to NT$67 after Su Jia-chyuan announced his candidacy. Hu’s price further plunged to NT$60 yesterday following the shooting.

However, Hu still has a solid lead, though the DPP claimed that internal polls show Hu's lead had fallen from 18 points to 14 as a result of the shooting. Lots of time before the elections, and I've been hearing some interesting trends that could shape the election here in the Chung.
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Personality Cult Touchstone and the Future of the KMT

During the martial law period the KMT government fostered a personality cult around the figure of Chiang Kai-shek (the Australian academic Jeremy Taylor has done a sterling job of chronicling the development and ramifications of this cult, and political religion in general in Taiwan). The ultimate realization of this personality cult is of course the massive memorial to Chiang Kai-shek in downtown Taipei.

Last week the Ministry of Education hung gigantic banners on the hall to proclaim it National Democracy Memorial Hall. As I remarked earlier, the spat not only shows the ongoing struggle between Chinese and Taiwanese nationalisms in Taiwan, it also shows how jurisdictions conflict, and that Taipei has far too much power in what is supposed to be a centralized governmental system. Taiwan News reported:

City Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌), when asked by reporters whether the banners will be removed again, said that the city government will deal with the issue at the appropriate time and will abide by the law. He did not specify which law he was referring to.

But the MOE fired back and stressed that the hanging of the banners does not violate any law.

Chu Nan-hsien, director of the ministry's Social Education Department, said that the central government's hanging of banners bearing the name of "National Taiwan Democracy Memorial Hall" is in conformity with the law.

Chu said that the city government's removal of the two banners and the repeated imposition of fines are a "twist of laws," and that the MOE will file a lawsuit against the city government for its abuse of power.

When asked by reporters about the shrunken size of the banners, Chu explained that it takes more time to print out the larger banners, therefore the MOE is using smaller ones for the moment to replace the originals.

The DPP is hanging the dead dictator around the KMT's neck, and more power to 'em. A Taiwan News editorial noted:

While there is room for discussion on method, we believe there is absolutely no legitimate room in a democratic country for a state-funded and -maintained feudal temple for the worship of a dead dictator, an edifice which stands today as a daily reminder of the pain victims or survivors of the "228" or "white terror" repression felt, and an arrogant negation of the Taiwan people's hard-won democracy and freedom.

Although the act is seven years too late, the DPP government's action upholds the principle of the separation of state and religion and puts an end to a ridiculous situation in which a democratic state subsidized with taxpayer funds a paragon to anti-democratic values.

On a more positive note, the new name and emblem of the National Taiwan Democracy Memorial also commemorates the most positive event of historical significance which occurred at the site, namely the March 1990 "Wild Lily" student movement for democracy that began as a protest against the re-entry of the military into the government through the appointment by then president Lee Teng-hui of Chiang-era militarist Hau Pei-tsun as premier, which ultimately served as a catalyst for the realization of full parliamentary re-elections by the end of 1992 as well as Taiwan's landmark first presidential election in March 1996.

Blind faith

The blind and fierce defense of this "temple," including its moniker, feudal architecture and fascist content, by KMT presidential nominee Ma Ying-jeou and KMT Taipei City Mayor Hau Lung-pin, the son of Hau Pei-tsun has been predictably shortsighted and inept.

The attempt by the KMT Taipei City government to obstruct the transformation of the Chiang temple into a memorial museum for Taiwan's democratic transition by arbitrarily declaring a 27-year old building a "historic relic" and tearing down the banners featuring its "wild lily" emblem displayed the KMT's refusal to set aside its habitual use of "state violence" to block democratic reform.

Yesterday's decisions by Hau to both tear down the new "Wild Lily" banners and rename Ketegalan Boulevard "Anti-Corruption Square" rubbed salt in the wounds of all the victims of the Chiang era "white terror" regardless of ethnicity. The move also stupidly insulted Taiwan's indigenous peoples, for whom the renaming of "Kai-shek Boulevard" to honor an indigenous people in the mid-990s marked a cherished breakthrough in their struggle for transitional justice and recognition.

The editorial hits on several points. First, the DPP move is seven years too late. Lots of us DPP supporters felt this way. It also notes that the street in front of the Presidential palace was once "Chiang Kai-shek Street" but the name was changed (funny how China didn't object to that "desinicization.") to Ketegalen as a tribute to the local aboriginals. Third, it refers to Hau Lung-bin and Hau Bei-tsun....

Lost in all the fuss has been the way this campaign has thoroughly revealed just what a doctrinaire mainlander the younger Hau is. There is a vast irony in his renamed Ketegalen Blvd to "Anti-corruption and Democracy Blvd." Hau's father, Hau Bei-tsun, appears to have been in on the US$400 million kickback the KMT received from the French government for purchasing French ships, in 1991 (see here and a much longer post). That's corruption. As for democracy, it was also the elder Hau who led a rear-guard action against the democratic wave Lee was permitting to wash over the Taiwan government. As I wrote last year when the elder Hau was hauled in for questioning on the matter, which prosecutors later closed:

Back in 1989-91, when the procurement decision was being made, newly-minted President Lee Teng-hui and longtime KMT stalwart Hau were struggling over just who controlled the military. Hau's reference thus is imbued with surpassing irony: Lee could not have made the decision, because in the period 1989-1990 he did not control the military; Hau did. In fact, in January of 1988, when Chiang Ching-kuo died and Lee ascended to the Presidency, a hardline faction of mainlander officers threatened a coup. The intervention of James Soong, who mediated the crisis, enabled Lee to retain power. The early years of Lee's presidency were thus overshadowed by the conflict between Hau, point man for this faction (the "non-mainstream faction"), and Lee representing the Party Machine and the mainstream KMT factions, over the direction of the KMT, and the shape of the government. Lee moved Hau out of his position as Chief of the General Staff, into the post of Minister of Defense, and finally to the position of Premier in May of 1990. Hau was appointed to that position because of the continuing threat of hardliners who wanted to run Hau as an alternative Presidential candidate in the March 1990 election, and because the previous premier, Lee Huan, had sided with the hardline mainlanders against Lee Teng-hui (he was a close associate of Chiang Ching-kuo). In fact Hau would eventually run as the Veep on an alternative ticket with Lin Yang-kang in 1996.

In other words, during the early 1990s the chief opponent of democracy in Taiwan was Hau Bei-tsun, the father of the current Taipei mayor who wants to rename Ketegalen Road "Anti-corruption and Democracy Road." History loves irony.

Lost in all this hoo-ha over the proper name of Personality Cult Square is another issue: that of the younger Hau's political career. As mayor of Taipei, there were a number of ways he could have played this. In the first Chen Administration he worked as head of the EPA and developed a reputation for being a moderate, which the DPP renaming ploy has now nicely revealed was a complete sham. Hau could have taken a more moderate position and angled for future Light Green votes, but instead, he chose to repeat the strategy of fellow mainlander Ma Ying-jeou, the current KMT Presidential candidate, and like Hau, the son of a prominent mainlander general who was close to Chiang Kai-shek -- when trouble threatens, move closer to the Deep Blue base.

The KMT, as I've noted on many occasions before, is afflicted with a structural conflict: its need to be a political party and get its people elected conflicts with its position as guardian of the Mainlander Political Identity, a quasi-religious identity whose core is built around the Return to China and Chiang Kai-shek. The KMT also has another structural problem: its local base is built around corrupt money interests, particularly in the farm associations, as I chronicled last week. It is extremely difficult for national level candidates to emerge from that network because anyone who came out of that system would be tainted by it. Hence, the KMT's national level candidates are restricted to prominent mainlanders, because the Deep Blue base won't tolerate a Taiwanese, and because the local networks are too corrupt -- and further, for many years it was KMT policy to suppress the power of influential local political clans by preventing them from developing a national political following.

Now a possible future national level candidate, Hau Lung-bin, who could have chosen to take a moderate position and preserve some space for a future presidential run, has been revealed by the Banner War to be just another doctrinaire mainlander. The effect on his possible future political career should be clear.

Nice move, DPP.

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