Former Veep Wu Den-yih elected KMT Chairman

Dom ponders a gorgeous old Camphor tree in the village of Shuangchi near Dongshih.

Wu Den-yih wins KMT Chair election.

Former vice president Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) yesterday became the new Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman after securing more than 140,000 votes of the 272,682 cast in the election.

Hau did not make an announcement and pledged support for the KMT's effort get NPP head Huang Guo-chang recalled. Huang is in a seat that the KMT could win in a by-election.

Wu immediately stated that if elected President in 2020 he would abide by the 1992 Consensus. Beijing sent him warm fuzzies and congrats for his election. Let's not forget, he is Ma's man. Solidarity, who had a great run down of the results, observed:

Wu was the most experienced, pragmatic, and politically skilled of this race’s candidates. He has significant political experience in northern, central, and southern Taiwan alike. Although association with the Ma administration has tainted his name, unlike Hung he does seem to live in the real world and be better able to communicate with ordinary people. He and his wife have anticipated a future presidential run for some time. He is well-equipped to manage the party’s relationships with Taiwanese local factions, which have been threatened by the DPP’s newfound political power. Given these qualities, plus the organizational skills he exhibited in this race, the green camp should steel itself for robust challenges in 2018 and 2020 rather than complacently leaning on its demographic dividend.

Wu has said that his wife and himself were told by a fortune teller that he would be President and she First Lady. Wu was born in 1948, in Nantou County. Next year he will be 70, and 72 in 2020. At this moment, my bet is that Wu is already envisioning a 2020 run, as his remarks on the 1992 Consensus suggest.

Wu has been elected in the south -- mayor of Kaohsiung in the 1990s. He will steer a more pragmatic course for the KMT than Hung's bitter-end ideology, but it will be difficult for him to overcome the Party's numerous problems. Much will be shown by the KMT's performance in 2018.

Wu's reiteration of the 1992 Consensus under which each side has its own interpretation -- the latter codicil has never been accepted by Beijing even though the international media routinely claim that it is -- is not merely a gesture aimed at Xi Jin-ping. Recall that Hung Hsiu-chu, the rightist and ideological purist, has championed a different view. Wu is signaling to his own people that he is going to follow the "centrist" position of Ma. Recall also that the 1992 Consensus has only minority support in Taiwan...

ADDED: News just out, Hung advisor says he will never accept Taiwanization of KMT. Wu's election is going to reinvigorate the struggle between Taiwan/mainlander groups within the KMT.

MEDIA: No, Reuters, the KMT and the CCP have not always recognized Taiwan as part of "one China." *sigh*
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Daily Links

• DO NOT FORGET: Lee Ming-che is still held in China. His wife visited Matthew Pottinger, Trump Administration official, in the WH this week.
• Commentary in TT argues DPP is rapidly drawing down its political capital
• Number of foreign visitors to Taiwan rises
• Duterte says China threatened war with Phils
• Enoch Wu in NYT castigates Taiwan for failing to respond to China mil threat
• Josh Ellis with another gorgeous photo blog, on Yuanzai Mtn
• And again... gov't committee proposes decriminalizing adultery. An expat anthropologist remarked that Taiwan would see gay marriage before it saw decriminalized adultery.
• Filipinos to get visa free entry. Good news!
• Export order growth continues for 9th straight month.
• Hindustan Times: the west fought Russia but facilitated China's rise 
• Take your heart medicine: AFP wrote article containing negative position on the KMT. I thought I'd see a unicorn before that happened....

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

KMT Chairmanship, China relations in the news...

Unloading a giant water tank as fields are burnt off in the background.

This week, with pro-China gangsters and thugs attacking Joshua Wong and other Hong Kong democracy activists arriving in Taiwan, a former Vice Chair of China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) was being interviewed in a Chinese paper. saying that the chaos in the KMT was destabilizing cross-strait relations... (Taipei Times):

Regarding Taiwanese politics, Wang said there no longer exists a force within Taiwan that could counterbalance the pro-Taiwan independence faction, adding that the only such force now lay in China.

The KMT has lost its status as one of the nation’s major political parties, and the factions favoring unification are now scattered, leaving the DPP the sole party in power, Wang said.

...

Economic sanctions against Taiwan would damage the interests of ordinary Taiwanese, Wang said, adding that Beijing should not seek to use the economy as leverage, but should instead seek to protect it.

Otherwise, China would continue to be unpopular in Taiwan, Wang said.

Interesting how first, he dismisses the KMT and says from now on China will be the principal force against Taiwan democracy. His claim that China won't punish Taiwan "economically" and protect it is of course absurd -- China is currently stealing Taiwan tech and enticing talented and skilled individuals from Taiwan to milk their knowledge and then send them home. China won't punish Taiwan economically because it would disrupt these processes.

Also interesting is that he concedes China is disliked in Taiwan.

China's refusal to talk to the DPP has, as I have noted before, placed it in a bind. The KMT is too weak at the moment, and it appears Chinese officials believe it is too weak to be of use. This means that China will have to, at some point, start talking to the DPP, probably while maintaining a verbose facade of toughness and benevolence for its home audiences.

Meanwhile lots going in the KMT. KMT Chief Deputy Chairman Steve Chan quit this week -- he was an important link to the southern/Taiwanese factions of the KMT, Solidaritytw observed on Twitter. It's that much less cement connecting the party with its factional networks in the hinterland. UPDATE: See comment on Chan below

Hau Long-bin, the former mayor of Taipei and KMT vice chairman, threw his hat in the ring for the Chairmanship election, but said if elected Chairman in 2017 he would not run for president in 2020. Of course, if he wants to run, he will arrange one of those bog-standard scenes of KMT politicians: "My followers are begging me, so I must reluctantly run for President." He also promised to make the legislative caucus head a KMT Vice Chair. Solidaritytw tweeted that it would be a big change...

Typical of Taiwan, he announced his Chairmanship candidacy on Facebook (Taiwan News), saying that he respected Hung but... (Taipei Times):

However, he has “been witnessing a party that is going downward; no matter how many mistakes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] has made, the KMT, with the exception of its caucus, seems to have become an outsider [in the political realm],” Hau wrote.

Heavyweight Wu Den-yih is holding a press conference Monday morning and will likely announce his candidacy. Readers may recall that in the run-up to the 2016 election Wu, a Taiwanese closely linked to the inner circle of KMT mainlanders, said that a fortune teller had predicted that he would be president and his wife the first lady. Obvious presidential ambitions there....

Solidaritytw reminded on Twitter that the KMT Chairmanship election rules (the KMT has rules?) call for a run-off election if no candidate gets 50% of the vote. Is this some strategy by the party elders to attempt to split the Deep Blue Old Soldier vote by offering them the son of Old Soldier idol Hau Pei-tsun as a candidate and hoping he gets more than Hung does, to force a run-off in which she finishes third? Then the run-off would be Hau vs Wu, a win either way for the mainlander elites.

But Hung has control of a large chunk of the Party machinery, and she has the backing of the Old Soldiers -- her father was not a KMT elite. To my mind she remains the frontrunner.

Want a glimpse into the KMT bubble world? Just read this piece from the Taipei Times on what went on at a conference organized by a Blue youth org....

“That the KMT still suffered electoral defeats after having followed the ‘Taiwanese nationalist party’ direction suggests it is a dead end,” Pang said, adding the KMT’s future would be dire if it continues to cling to the naive idea that being a Taiwan-centric party would help it gain the support of swing voters.

Yes, that's right. The KMT has been following a 'Taiwanese nationalist party' direction. Missed that, didn't you?

Note also their support for the 1992C with different interpretations. KMT advocacy for the "different interpretations" claim -- which Beijing has never supported -- is important. Under that rubric, the ROC has a kind of continued existence as one of the interpretations of China, with Beijing's (imagined) acceptance. That is why Hung's "one interpretation" was so ominous and strange -- it threatens that arrangement. Indeed, it almost reduces 'China' to the PRC -- though I expect she means that only the ROC is 'China'.

If Tsai comes up with some other formula and the CCP wants to talk, what happens to the "two intepretations" then? And the KMT's clinging to the faux 1992 Consensus?
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

KMTitanic III: But this ship can't sink!

This is the life...

Smith: The pumps... if we opened the doors...
Andrews: [interrupting] The pumps buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment, no matter what we do, Titanic will founder.
Ismay: [incredulously] But this ship can't sink!
Andrews: She's made of iron, sir! I assure you, she can... and she will. It is a mathematical certainty.

Eric Chu's KMT is still the KMT. The news says it all: Tenth KMT-CCP forum to be held in May or June. The KMT has but one card left to play, and that's the "only we can handle China" card. Unfortunately they are looking like the same old KMT more and more, with the press now discussing a Xi-Chu meetup at the Forum -- which is being treated as a separate issue. The Forum, held in June, will be only six months away from the election, a timely reminder of who the KMT's allies are. This connection might be nice in some quarters, and polls might even show majority approval, but I suspect voters are going to be very tired of it, and will punish the KMT. If Xi and Chu meet, it will cost the KMT votes.

In any case, the Eric Chu KMT is feeling a lot like the Ma Ying-jeou KMT, same people, same issues, same trends...

Lots of light moments this week. A well-known talk show host, Vivian Tsai (蔡玉真) made headlines today by announcing that Ma would have to step down in 2015, which would make Wu Den-yih President. It's hard to see that happening, but the really droll part is that Wu Den-yih and his wife believe they are fated to be president and first lady. Apparently a few years back, a fortune teller told Wu that he had a presidential fate. My wife observed that if he becomes president, that fortune teller is going to get rich. eTaiwan news says:

The Special Investigation Division summoned political commentators Tsai Yu-chen and Wang Chieh-min to testify Wednesday in its investigation of charges that President Ma Ying-jeou accepted illegal contributions from business figures in the 2008 election campaign. Afterwards Tsai took to Facebook to write that she believes Ma will step down as president sometime this year, to be succeeded by current Vice President Wu Den-yih.

Tsai revealed that she had been questioned in relation to reports of political contributions from the Ting Hsin Group. She said that prosecutors had provided a list of entrepreneurs and asked what she knew regarding the case, but added that she was not at liberty to disuss any details of the investigation. She said she could only disclose that she believes that before the end of this year President Ma will step down from office. "But don’t worry,” she said, “Wu Den-yih is prepared to take over and this will be a transition period only."

Wu dismissed the claims as "ridiculous". The really great thing is that suddenly the Chen Shui-bian accusations of the other day were blown away by this new kerfuffle and disappeared into the media ether...

Speaking of the presidency, reports have it that PFP leader James Soong, once a KMT stalwart who nearly won the Presidency in 2000 after leaving the KMT and running as an independent, is considering a run. This will help the PFP legislative candidates, though, if the last time he did this is any indication, he won't have much effect on the Presidential election. But it will still be nice to see...

Meanwhile, DPP Chair and probable presidential candidate Tsai Ying-wen is making DPP hay out of the nuclear issue. She called on DPP members to take part in demonstrations against nuke power across the nation on Saturday. Nukes are unpopular and DPP ownership of this issue will hurt the KMT come election time.
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Daily Links:

• MAC declines China's invitation to participate in WWII commemoration
• Single man dates three women in two weeks, makes headlines. Three Four different editorial staffs decided this was news. Taiwan is so ill-served by its media...
• Twilight of the Idols: Defacing CKS statues. 
• The recent pro-China changes to the education curriculum, in Chinese
• Cole: China demolishes the Taiwan consensus
• Reuters with a rare good piece on Taiwan-China. Reading more of these where the writer discusses what the Taiwanese people think. One effect of the Hong Kong protests was, IMHO, to make it easier for the international media to discuss what the Taiwanese people actually think.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Shocked-I-Tell-You Events

Happiness is an office decorated with my daughter's paintings.

I was shocked, I tell you shocked, to learn that Premier Wu Den-yih, back before he received his promotion to his current exalted state, traveled to Bali Island in Indonesia with a prominent Nantou gangster back in December, as the pro-Blue CTI reported (quickie translation from Google, slightly cleaned up):

根據周刊報導，吳敦義任職國民黨秘書長期間，曾偕妻子蔡令怡與中部黑道大哥江欽良，共赴印尼渡假盛地峇里島五日，同行者還包括南投縣長李朝卿、議員李增全、竹山鎮紫南宮主委莊秋安、草屯鎮代表會主席林焜熠夫婦。由於江欽良仍在假釋期，且自十餘歲出道累積逾30項的犯案前科，令人高度質疑吳揆力挺查緝黑道的決心。

According to a Next Weekly reports, when Wu Den-yih was KMT Secretary General, he and his wife and central Taiwan triad leader Jiang Qin Liang, went to the Indonesian resort island of Bali for five days while traveling, together with Nantou County Magistrate Li Zhaoqing, Mr Li Zeng-Quan, Chushan Town Purple Palace Chairman Zhuang Qiu-An, and Mr Lam Kun-Yi of the Tsaotun Township Council and their wives. As Jiang Qin Liang was still on parole from a ten year sentence, with a record of 30 previous convictions for various offenses....

A spokesman said on behalf of Premier Wu that he had gone there to gain ideas for tourism. Clearly, to attract so august a crowd, Bali Island must have many lessons for land-locked Nantou.

Out walking the pet chicken in front of an apartment complex in Linkou as the stray dogs look on hungrily.

When last we heard from the High Speed Rail on this blog, the government was taking it over as the system was unable to service its debts. The government takeover was necessary to get the political leverage so that the state banks would re-do the loans at a lower rate. Sure enough, the news came out today that the government banks had agreed to refinance the loans...

The Taiwan High Speed Rail Co. (THSRC) yesterday secured a total of NT$ 382 billion in loans from a bank consortium at an average interest rate of 1.8%, helping to relieve the firm from its heavy financial burden. The THSRC also pledged to assist the state-owned shareholders to obtain more than half of the seats on the THSRC board, which is scheduled to be reshuffled next week.

An official pointed out that the bank consortium consisted mainly of eight state-owned banks, including the Bank of Taiwan and the Land Bank of Taiwan, but the bank consortium intended to solicit the participation of several private banks. According to local media, some private banks, including Taipei Fubon Bank and the Chinatrust Commercial Bank, have shown interest.

The comment about the HSR company helping government-connected people get a seat on the board reminds me of this article on China's burgeoning private equity muscle. Private equity firms typically invest in companies in which they see a gap between current management's ability to make money and their own assessment of the potential of the firm. They then chuck out the previous underperforming management, bring in experienced pros to run the companies, and sell off the firm after a few years at large profits, which are repaid to the original private equity investors.

This business has largely been the domain of westerners but China now has the money to begin focusing on Taiwan's listed corporations. Once they have purchased shares it will be easy to install pro-China lackeys, or Chinese themselves, on the boards (Taiwan shareholders typically don't vote). I'm sure you'll be shocked to find that economic relations are not apolitical, despite the claims of thoroughly clueless futurists. Economist Peter Chow wrote a great piece in the Taipei Times the other day on some of the really deep issues involved in moving closer to China.

Screen capture from Taipei Times the other day. Impersonators of Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek with a local political candidate.

Quote of the week: I had my students do pro/con essays on the topic of living together, and one male dolefully informed me that one of the disadvantages of cohabiting is that "you must be honest" with your partner.

Those of you into trivia can answer this one which appeared on H-Asia:

I wonder if anybody knows about Hollywood films on Taiwan or Taiwanese issues produced in the 1950s-60s. Is there any equivalent of ‘Sayonara’ or ‘The World of Suzie Wong’ set in Taiwan? There have been many studies on the culture during the Cold War and the American representation of Asia, but I haven’t come across anything specifically addressing Taiwan, therefore I would be grateful if anybody can kindly let me know.

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Daily Links
Sad to learn Taiwan lost 400 historic puppets in warehouse fire. Taiwan What's Up says foreigners will soon enjoy lower tax rates. Slightly lower. Over at China Beat there is a reallllly great post on the reconstruction of Hsiaolin Village by Paul Katz. Finally, don't miss this excellent interview with one of the architects of the Taiwan health care system in the NY Times.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!