KMT Chairmanship, China relations in the news...

Unloading a giant water tank as fields are burnt off in the background.

This week, with pro-China gangsters and thugs attacking Joshua Wong and other Hong Kong democracy activists arriving in Taiwan, a former Vice Chair of China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) was being interviewed in a Chinese paper. saying that the chaos in the KMT was destabilizing cross-strait relations... (Taipei Times):

Regarding Taiwanese politics, Wang said there no longer exists a force within Taiwan that could counterbalance the pro-Taiwan independence faction, adding that the only such force now lay in China.

The KMT has lost its status as one of the nation’s major political parties, and the factions favoring unification are now scattered, leaving the DPP the sole party in power, Wang said.

...

Economic sanctions against Taiwan would damage the interests of ordinary Taiwanese, Wang said, adding that Beijing should not seek to use the economy as leverage, but should instead seek to protect it.

Otherwise, China would continue to be unpopular in Taiwan, Wang said.

Interesting how first, he dismisses the KMT and says from now on China will be the principal force against Taiwan democracy. His claim that China won't punish Taiwan "economically" and protect it is of course absurd -- China is currently stealing Taiwan tech and enticing talented and skilled individuals from Taiwan to milk their knowledge and then send them home. China won't punish Taiwan economically because it would disrupt these processes.

Also interesting is that he concedes China is disliked in Taiwan.

China's refusal to talk to the DPP has, as I have noted before, placed it in a bind. The KMT is too weak at the moment, and it appears Chinese officials believe it is too weak to be of use. This means that China will have to, at some point, start talking to the DPP, probably while maintaining a verbose facade of toughness and benevolence for its home audiences.

Meanwhile lots going in the KMT. KMT Chief Deputy Chairman Steve Chan quit this week -- he was an important link to the southern/Taiwanese factions of the KMT, Solidaritytw observed on Twitter. It's that much less cement connecting the party with its factional networks in the hinterland. UPDATE: See comment on Chan below

Hau Long-bin, the former mayor of Taipei and KMT vice chairman, threw his hat in the ring for the Chairmanship election, but said if elected Chairman in 2017 he would not run for president in 2020. Of course, if he wants to run, he will arrange one of those bog-standard scenes of KMT politicians: "My followers are begging me, so I must reluctantly run for President." He also promised to make the legislative caucus head a KMT Vice Chair. Solidaritytw tweeted that it would be a big change...

Typical of Taiwan, he announced his Chairmanship candidacy on Facebook (Taiwan News), saying that he respected Hung but... (Taipei Times):

However, he has “been witnessing a party that is going downward; no matter how many mistakes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] has made, the KMT, with the exception of its caucus, seems to have become an outsider [in the political realm],” Hau wrote.

Heavyweight Wu Den-yih is holding a press conference Monday morning and will likely announce his candidacy. Readers may recall that in the run-up to the 2016 election Wu, a Taiwanese closely linked to the inner circle of KMT mainlanders, said that a fortune teller had predicted that he would be president and his wife the first lady. Obvious presidential ambitions there....

Solidaritytw reminded on Twitter that the KMT Chairmanship election rules (the KMT has rules?) call for a run-off election if no candidate gets 50% of the vote. Is this some strategy by the party elders to attempt to split the Deep Blue Old Soldier vote by offering them the son of Old Soldier idol Hau Pei-tsun as a candidate and hoping he gets more than Hung does, to force a run-off in which she finishes third? Then the run-off would be Hau vs Wu, a win either way for the mainlander elites.

But Hung has control of a large chunk of the Party machinery, and she has the backing of the Old Soldiers -- her father was not a KMT elite. To my mind she remains the frontrunner.

Want a glimpse into the KMT bubble world? Just read this piece from the Taipei Times on what went on at a conference organized by a Blue youth org....

“That the KMT still suffered electoral defeats after having followed the ‘Taiwanese nationalist party’ direction suggests it is a dead end,” Pang said, adding the KMT’s future would be dire if it continues to cling to the naive idea that being a Taiwan-centric party would help it gain the support of swing voters.

Yes, that's right. The KMT has been following a 'Taiwanese nationalist party' direction. Missed that, didn't you?

Note also their support for the 1992C with different interpretations. KMT advocacy for the "different interpretations" claim -- which Beijing has never supported -- is important. Under that rubric, the ROC has a kind of continued existence as one of the interpretations of China, with Beijing's (imagined) acceptance. That is why Hung's "one interpretation" was so ominous and strange -- it threatens that arrangement. Indeed, it almost reduces 'China' to the PRC -- though I expect she means that only the ROC is 'China'.

If Tsai comes up with some other formula and the CCP wants to talk, what happens to the "two intepretations" then? And the KMT's clinging to the faux 1992 Consensus?
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Taiwan News Number 5: KMT Chair election

A woman feeds stray dogs.

This week my piece was on the KMT's Chairmanship election, which has been moved up from Aug to May of 2107.

Potential rivals are few, and all are wounded. The "princelings," the children of KMT elites, lack appeal. Eric Chu, the current Mayor of New Taipei City, the one municipality still controlled by the KMT, performed poorly in the Presidential election and worse, is half-Taiwanese and thus suspect to many staunch mainlander voters. Hau Long-bin, the son of reactionary old KMT heavyweight Hau Pei-tsun and the former mayor of Taipei, lost an easy legislative election in 2016 in Keelung, long a KMT stronghold. Other names frequently mentioned include princeling Sean Lien, the son of heavyweight Lien Chan, who lacks appeal outside the deep Blues, and former Vice President Wu Den-yi, whose power base is in sparsely populated Nantou and who is Taiwanese. Except for Wu, who is a formidable politician with deep links throughout the party, none are likely to pose a great challenge to Hung.

I consider Wu more of a threat, in the sense that Huang Min-hui was a threat, because he is Taiwanese and can appeal to that large and dissatisfied wing. I have heard it was Wu who helped keep the KMT in line in the second Administration of Ma, when grumbling was widespread. Hau is also revered by the Old Soldiers since he is the son of the reactionary politician and general Hau Pei-tsun. But that loss in Keelung really hurt him.

After I wrote this and sent it in, Hau came out against the recent moves to change the position of the Old Soldiers in the party, indicating he is probably courting their votes. Perhaps he will run in May. If the Old Soldier votes, which determine the outcome, are split, then someone like Wu may have a chance. But in the end I still expect Hung will win. Hau may be a princeling, but the Old Soldiers can see that Hung is one of them. Moreover, Hung is an authoritarian ideologue and more KMT than the KMT, while Hau had to govern in the real world and lacks those qualities... UPDATE: Hau and Wu are leagued against Hung.

KMT-sympathetic news orgs were reporting that Ma was considering a run too. Still no new blood...

2020? Whoever becomes Chairman is automatically the next presidential candidate. I doubt the KMT will become wise enough to separate the two; the DPP certainly hasn't. Want to know who the next KMT candidates will be? Watch who makes pilgrimages to China to receive the blessing of the CCP...
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Still your father's KMT

Above is a poster from the Facebook of KMT Chairman Hung Hsiu-chu. She's flooded her Facebook with similar images. This one shows her as an anime character, and she's asking in Chinese: "Young people, let me ask! Why do you hate the KMT?"

The answer, of course, lies within the KMT itself. The TT reported on the continued retrograde motion of the KMT under the guidance of Chairman Hung:

Some Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) members yesterday voiced dissent after KMT Chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) on Tuesday said that the party leadership has drafted amendments to the party’s policy platform, which is to be discussed at the party’s national congress on Sunday, to align its efforts to strengthen the so-called “1992 consensus” and explore the potential for a “peace agreement” with Beijing.

The KMT's top down leadership style on display -- once again, no reform in sight under Hung:

“Major policy proposals should be bottom-up discussions. I do not understand why the party leadership is rushing this,” KMT Legislator Lai Shih-bao (賴士葆) told the United Daily News. “At the very least, the party’s rank-and-file members should have been consulted, and the KMT Central Standing Committee should have voted on the issue before it was submitted to the national congress.”

Remember this from 2005 if you are tempted to imagine the KMT will reform:

Members of Super KMT II, which takes its name from SKII, a kind of cosmetic which claims to help maintain an appearance of youthfulness, vowed to become key reformers in the quest to bring young people back to the KMT. Jul 8, 2005

No young people? Complaints about that for more than a decade now, though apparently the KMT has the superior infrastructure. Brian Hioe noted the other day:

However, the KMT still maintains a sizable and active youth section. Interestingly enough, despite the fact that the DPP absorbed many young people drawn from post-Sunflower civil society for the Tsai campaign, the DPP has never been able to build a comparable youth section to either the KMT or TSU.

And it is that in the KMT’s moment of crisis, young people within the KMT are calling for internal party reform in order to rescue the party—with some surprisingly sympathetic responses from post-Sunflower youth activists. The Grassroots Alliance (草協聯盟) and leading figure Hsu Hsiao-Chin (徐巧芯) have been much discussed in Taiwanese civil society as of late.

Hoie sharply notes that KMT young are much-discussed and sympathized with by outsiders, who recognize that they have grown up in what I call the Church of the KMT -- in its ideological bubble."This may be another sign that Taiwan’s current young may have moved beyond ethnic identity politics in the post-Sunflower political paradigm," he notes. But he goes on...

And it is that members of the Grassroots Alliance has been targeted most often not by their peers on the other side of the political aisle, but by older members of the KMT. The Grassroots Alliance and its key figures have been attacked from the beginning through claims that members have been brainwashed by the DPP or are “light green.” One imagines that, given the absolute loyalty of young members of the Grassroots Alliance to the party as a matter of personal identity, it is not exactly pleasant for members of the Grassroots Alliance to come under attack by the party when their calls for reform seem rather earnest in nature and done with the best interests of the KMT in mind. If this is the way the KMT treats their young, perhaps we can see why efforts at reform have been stymied, and why the KMT has such difficulty grooming young leaders and advancing them to positions in which they could take power as the next generation of the party—meaning possible extinction as a party when there is nobody left to carry on the party torch.

Indeed, in the TT article at the beginning of this piece quotes KMT Chair Hung criticizing the young:

Hung criticized Tsai’s comments about Taiwan’s “naturally independence-leaning” younger generations, saying: “It is an artificial pro-independence sentiment ... [that was] manipulated by politicians who made young people forget about the Republic of China’s history and cross-strait ties to “cut the umbilical cord” between Taiwan and China.”

When you are viewing things through the lens of ideology, opposition is always explained in terms of conspiracy...

And then there is this...

"Meetings held by the KMT Central Standing Committee consist of one person laying down the law. There's no democracy at all in the party," Yang said. March 24, 2000

Nothing has changed. The party rank and file are just cannon fodder, the real decisions are made by elites.

Moreover, the policies that Hung is advocating, especially the "peace agreement" which is a non-starter with little support outside the KMT, are old. The idea of "peace agreement" was originally proposed by then-independent and former KMT heavyweight James Soong as he ran for president in the 2000 election.... (TT, March, 2000)

"While the political dispute cannot be settled at once, I would like to use cultural and economic approaches to promote a friendly atmosphere, in the hopes of pushing through a 30- to 50-year peace accord under the auspices of international witnesses," he said.

These "peace agreements" are never concretely spelled out because the KMT likely sees them as a way to annex Taiwan to China and to neutralize Taiwan in China's favor in the ongoing hegemonic struggle between the US, Japan, and China. It's hilarious to hear Hung talking about them fifteen years of non-start later, and even more hilarious to read in the media that Tsai does not have a coherent foreign policy given the KMT's current utter lack of a concrete foreign policy (for which the party is never criticized in the foreign media).

Hung did signal that the KMT will engage in independent diplomacy with China, which will likely make Beijing laugh...

Michael Danielson had a piece in the TT today assessing the KMT's first 100 days in opposition. Observing that "the KMT lost China and now it is going to lose Taiwan", Danielson reminds us:

Finally, the KMT continues to promote the “1992 consensus” as the savior of the nation’s economy and its relationship with China. Beijing’s reaction to Tsai has been relatively modest. Retrospectively, the KMT’s obsession with the “1992 consensus” has not given Taiwan more real international space, but rather contributed to the KMT’s downfall through the Sunflower movement and Taiwanese’s negative reaction to an economic integration with China, which they fear would lead to more social inequality.

Since integration with China has driven Taiwan's social inequality, it is not surprising that the public objects to more.

Danielson correctly observes that Beijing did little for Taiwan's international space. The two, social movements and international space, are connected -- J Michael Cole cogently argued last year that China, seeing that Ma was hamstrung by the Sunflowers and domestically weak, had decided to punish Ma by implementing the new flight routes that came dangerously close to Taiwan's. People have already forgotten that the free trade agreements with other nations promised by President Ma if Taiwan signed ECFA never materialized because Beijing blocked them, as the Ma Administration complained.

The truth is that "progress" in cross-strait relations often lauded by commentators either never really existed or else actively harmed Taiwan's interests.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Tsai vs Hung on Tiananmen

A bridge rises from the waters

President Tsai Ing-wen posted a message on Tiananmen to her Facebook.... which the amazing Solidarity promptly translated in its entirety. A taste....

I believe mainland China is no exception. Today is June 4, and 27 years ago on this day, the Tiananmen Square incident occurred in Beijing. Because of it, many people lost their families; many people lost their hope for reform; and many people were forced to leave their hometowns and become exiles overseas. These were all things Taiwan too had experienced. That is why every Taiwanese person who saw those images on television 27 years ago felt empathy: Because we, too, had walked that path. We felt more clearly than anyone the thirst the students at Tiananmen Square had for democracy and freedom.

.......

As president, I won’t criticize the political system on the other side of the strait point by point. Instead I will express my willingness to sincerely and with my whole heart share with the other side of the strait the experiences of Taiwan’s democratization. The achievements of economic growth of today’s mainland China are apparent to everyone. With the effort of the ruling party on the other side of the strait, China’s citizens absolutely have a better quality of life than they did before. No one can deny this. Nor can anyone deny, however, that mainland China’s internal politics and society are currently under pressure to transform. If the other side of the strait can give the citizens of mainland China more rights, the people of the world will give mainland China more respect.

Hung Hsiu-chu, the former presidential candidate and current Chairman of the KMT, also had some thoughts on the June 4 Anniversary which she shared with the world. The Taipei Times reported...

“Putting aside the clashes in the past [between the Chinese Communist Party and the KMT], is the effort the KMT has made in Taiwan not also aimed at finding a better way to democracy and liberty for the children of zhonghua minzu?”

She called for a life full of “tolerance” and “respect” for all “Chinese children.”

“We have seen that the societies on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are walking toward this ideal. Since [China] has shown — different from before — its ability to be tolerant, could it then consider granting a more tolerant handling of this historical wound?” Hung wrote.

Former KMT spokesperson Yang Wei-chung (楊偉中) said “fury” is the only emotion he felt after reading Hung’s post.

He accused Hung of writing the post “with the tone of a lackey” who “begs for tolerance from the oppressor and the dictator.”

Yang also lambasted Hung for her “distorted understanding” of the historical connection between the crackdown and reform, claiming that hope for real, comprehensive reforms had all but been destroyed by the incident.

Hung's penchant for mentioning herself in public announcements appeared again...

我也曾是政治受難者的家屬，我是深深感受過那種遭到社會否定，有苦無處訴之痛苦的，但這並沒有影響我為國家，為民族奮鬥進取的決心. 如果我個人的際遇還可以作為某種啟示的話，我多麼希望大陸當局能夠以更大的寬容. 早日撫平這個存在於大陸社會與改革開放歷史中的傷口，讓這些承受歷史傷痛的人們，也有為民族奉獻自己的機會，也讓我們生活在台灣的中華兒女們，

I am also from a family that has suffered from politics. I deeply felt that society was negative, with no one to hear my bitter complaints of pain. However, it did not affect my determination to struggle for the [ethnic Chinese] nation. If my personal fate can serve as a kind of revelation....

In true hardline KMT style she subsumed the people of Taiwan into the Chinese nation:

也讓我們生活在台灣的中華兒女們

...to enable us Chinese children living in Taiwan to...

That's really the difference. In Tsai's presentation, the common yearning for democracy is the common ground of the peoples of Taiwan and China. In Hung's presentation, that common ground is the shared ethnicity, the Chinese nation of KMT ideology.

Sadly, Hung learned nothing from her father's experiences at the hands of the KMT.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

New KMT Chair Hung makes a classic move

Rice.

Solidarity.tw translated a UDN article on new KMT Chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu's appointments to positions within the KMT:

Days after naming members of her campaign team to party posts (S.tw: see below), new KMT Chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) tonight announced a second round of personnel appointments. She named a record seven people as KMT deputy secretaries-general:
-Legislator Lin Teh-fu (林德福) (S.tw: KMT legislative caucus secretary-general, and deep-blue representative of Hung’s home district of Yonghe),
-Taitung County Council Speaker Rao Ching-ling (饒慶齡)
-Chiayi City Council Speaker Hsiao Shu-li (蕭淑麗)
-Former Legislator Lin Kuo-cheng (林國正) (Kaohsiung 9)
-Former Legislator Yang Chiung-ying (楊瓊瓔) (Taichung 3)
-Former Pingtung City Mayor Yeh Shou-shan (葉壽山)
-Former Pingtung County Chapter Chair Chang Ya-ping (張雅屏)

What kind of list is this? It's a list of local KMT Taiwanese faction politicians. Chiayi City Council Speaker Hsaio Shu-li is from the (in)famous Hsiao faction in Chiayi, whose members have scrawled their names as graffiti on many a jail cell. Yang Chiung-ying is a local faction politician from Tanzih where I live -- she was the politician Hung Tz-yung defeated in the last election. Lin Guo-cheng is a former city councilman from Kaohsiung. Etc. The Taipei Times has a list here of other appointments.

The KMT news organ observed:

A Hung staffer went on to say that Hung had short-listed candidates for KMT Vice Chairman, KMT secretary-general, and other senior party executives. However, some of the candidates were professors who had to consider whether they could take an extended sabbatical in the middle of an academic year. Some were also political appointees of the outgoing Ma administration, who would be available only after leaving office on May 20. The staffer commented that “the entire personnel line-up would be determined no later than May 20.”

These are classic Old KMT moves: appoint local faction politicians to party positions lower down in the organizational list, to help bind the factions to the leadership -- note how the list is mostly people from the center and south. Several were council speakers, highly desired positions for their ability to dole out government patronage to cronies. Bringing in KMTers temporarily parked at universities for party and political positions is a classic Old KMT move -- the problem is that they go back to universities when they are done, which doesn't help the party. She is also going to bring in people from the Ma Administration.

What's not being brought in? Young people bristling with energy and ideas. Outsiders. This is management by formula, not reform. Note that none of these people can challenge Hung because they are Taiwanese and do not possess a national following, they are just being put on ice until they run again in 2018 and 2020. She is merely re-affirming KMT control of its local networks. Moreover, anyone she appoints now will have little time to effect change, because Hung is going to face election again late next summer. These are smart moves, however, and obviously someone is giving her good advice.
______________
Daily Links:

• Relationship between the ROC and Weimar/Nazi Germany
• Vietnam-era US serviceman searches for his children in Taiwan
• X-strait milkfish deal not to be renewed
• Defense News: Radical RAND report spells doom for Taiwan. Uh, no, but it does spell clicks aplenty for Defense News
• How President Ma Preserved the Death Penalty in Taiwan

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Hung for Chair of The Rational Party

Was in Miaoli scootering on Tuesday and came to the famous Longteng Broken Railroad Viaduct. The previous Miaoli tourism planner once explained to me that he set up the system so that vendors were kept away from the historical and tourist sites. That is one reason Miaoli was so enjoyable. Now that he is gone, vendors are swarming into public spaces where they were not allowed before...

Deep Blue reactionary Hung Hsiu-chu, the former presidential candidate, now running for Party Chairman, this week implied that the KMT helped the government financially....

However, Hung also said that the problem of the KMT’s party assets has its “historical background” and should not be treated as a crime, adding that “returning party assets to zero” is a “pseudo-issue.”

She said that the KMT had also contributed a lot to the government, citing the amount of gold and national treasures now housed in the National Palace Museum that the party had brought from China in 1949 and asked the public to rationally examine whether it was the government that had helped the party or the party that had helped the government.

"Rationally" and "objectively" are favorite rhetorical moments in the world KMTers -- such words contend that the other side is irrational. Former KMT spokesperson Yang Wei-chung, who has been in the news attacking her absurdities, pointed out in the article that the KMT had historically always drawn on the government to pay its bills.

Everyone in Taiwan knows that the KMT-Party state was financed by taxpayer coffers, but that's not the point. Hung is running for KMT Chair and is doing so by appealing to Deep Blue rank and file, where she has strong support. This week I had dinner with a longtime friend inside the Hung campaign who said that (1) President Ma and all other high level KMTers support Huang Min-hui, a faction politician and Hung's Taiwanese rival for the Chairmanship (2) "if you work for Hung, everyone distances themselves from you" (3) Hung is busy running activities appealing to the rank and file, where she is strongly supported (4) the DPP does a much better job at everything right now -- "when we sit down with DPP party officials, they always know how to do things better than we do and we learn from them" (5) the KMT youth organization is run by a crony of King Pu-tsun, who is Ma's hatchet man. As a result, it produces propaganda singing the praises of the great Ma Ying-jeou and is hopeless at attracting the young (6) what we all know: the KMT has no appeal for youth (7) Wang Jin-pyng has little influence or power (in case you had any doubts).

This election is a replay of the 2005 election between mainlander ideologue Ma Ying-jeou and Taiwanese faction politician Wang Jin-pyng, in which Party elites supported Wang, and the rank and file voted for Ma. The rank and file are more conservative and ideological than the core elites of the party, and prefer candidates who share their KMT religious identity.
________________
Daily Links

• Taiwan at risk for Zika
• Hung Hsiu-chu, campaigning for KMT Chair, implies the KMT party helped the government.
• Taiwan hot springs and waterfalls map
• China poaching Taiwan tech talent. As I have been saying...
• Willy Lam explores a question that is has been on many lips: does the personality cult around Xi mean he won't step down?
• Great post from Great Blog on history of the Beimen area in Taipei, lovely pics.
• What Xi gains by threatening Taiwan: Gordon Chang at The National Interest
• The KMT is a freak of a political party
• Kharis Templeman on the great voter swing in the 2016 elections
• J Michael Cole's review of a novel about the White Terror days
• China and the inevitability of war
• The Diplomat: How Chinese analysts understand the geostrategic position of Taiwan
• DON'T MISS: Richard Kagan with fascinating insights into the election of Tsai Ing-wen
• DON'T MISS: Great discussion by Brian H at New Bloom on Taiwan independence.

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Polls and Stuff on the Hung-Chu Swap

Waiting... waiting....

As we wait to see what Saturday's meeting of the KMT brings, there is a spate of articles in media saying that the Special Investigative Division is investigating accusations that the KMT offered a bribe to current KMT Presidential Candidate Hung Hsiu-chu to step aside. This is purely pro forma, despite media attempts to sex it up, and will not come to anything even in the highly unlikely event that it is actually true, but I just want to publicly inform the KMT that I will happily accept a large payment from the KMT not to run for President on a KMT ticket.

The papers here are reporting that Eric Chu, the current Chairman of the KMT, is going to accept the nomination. The KMT is getting around its lack of a mechanism for repealing the nomination by repealing the resolution making Hung the nominee. News that Chu is the man was coicident with reports saying that 2015 economic growth in Taiwan is, like KMT economic competence, essentially undetectable. Glad I am not running at the head of that ticket in this economic environment...

[fixing the chart!!! grabbed the wrong one, mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. That will teach me to blog after several hours of editing and translating late at night....]

TT on it:

However, if Chu replaces Hung 44.6 percent of respondents said they would still support Tsai, while Chu would receive 21 percent support and Soong 12 percent.

Chu's numbers will almost certain rise as the KMT campaign settles down and voters gradually mellow out, but how much will the rise be? Probably not much, is the verdict of most observers -- voters are readying to punish the KMT. Chu's campaign is basically going to be an exploration of how long a dead cat can be made to bounce.

Soong is still gently fading and not worth bothering about. Whatever election it is, the Soong retains the same.

Commentary is overflowing, so I won't add. WantWant won the internet this week with headlines: KMT mulling what word to use when it throws Hung under the bus, Hung their heads in shame: Hsiu-chu classier than KMT colleagues, and of course, KMT chair apologizes to Hung for imminent backstabbing. Courtney Donovan Smith, who combines in his awesome self one of my favorite people and one of my favorite commentators, asks Can Anyone Save the KMT? Frozen Garlic mulls the effect of replacing Hung with Chu. WSJ commented on the KMT mess, but then veered into scaremongering. Peter Enav at Thinking Taiwan on the inevitability and history of the KMT implosion. Brian Hoie at New Bloom on whether the KMT is devouring itself.

Solidarity notes that Ma is still trying to suppress Chu and advance Wu Den-yi. After Chu loses the election he will likely step down, and we will see another round of red (non-mainstream KMT) versus blue (mainstream KMT) violence, with the "pragmatic" Ma backing the first crowd and trying to get his man into the chairmanship spot. We on the pro-Taiwan side might have to send a trade delegation to Iowa to purchase next year's corn crop to ensure we have enough popcorn on hand for the post-election KMT civil war.
______________
Daily Links:

• The stupid struggle over pork continues. Taiwan does not want heavily subsidized US pork to come in and wipe out its producers. Anyone who thinks that the TPP is about containing China need merely look at the purblind stupidity of US TPP policy -- the US will hold up Taiwan's TPP bid to make a handful of insanely wealthy, massively subsidized US producers of pork even wealthier. That's what we call stoopid. Please, Washington, let the pork slide, geostrategy is more important. 
• Interview with the always interesting Wuer Kaixi in Taipei Times
• FocusTaiwan: Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council hopes for institutionalized meetings with the Taiwan Affairs Office. I too hope everyone involved is institutionalized.
• Dengue kills 106. 
• Photoessay: encounters with Filipino workers in Taiwan
• Taiwan to keep trying to get diesel-electric subs

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Hung saga zigs and zags toward close

Da-an River gorge north of Dongshih town.

DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen once again reiterated her support for the status quo and for the determination of cross-strait policy by the people....

Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), the chairwoman and presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), said Sunday that the orientation of Taiwan's next administration should be decided by the people.

Referring to President Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) statement on cross-Taiwan Strait relations in his National Day message, Tsai said there was a huge difference between the views of the people and that of the president, who said that "without the '1992 consensus,' 'maintaining the status quo' is just a slogan" that can never become reality.

Maddog pointed out on Twitter that Ma's remarks tacitly concede that the next president won't be KMT.

As I've noted many times before, the 1992 Consensus is not the basis of KMT-CCP cooperation, but just a cage to imprison DPP cross-strait policy, something which the international media simply refuses to report. The basis for KMT-CCP cooperation is China's desire to annex Taiwan...

Meanwhile, the saga of failed and soon to be replaced KMT Presidential Candidate Hung Hsiu-chu continues. Various reports say various things -- Hung will leave her fate up to the upcoming party Congress.

Chu has talked to Hung frankly recently about the uphill battle faced by the party as well as the party's candidates in the legislative race, also to be held on the same day as the presidential election on Jan. 16, 2016.

The legislative candidates fear that they are more likely to lose the legislative elections with Hung as the standard bearer.

Despite mounting calls to replace Hung or for her to step down voluntarily, Hung herself has said repeatedly that she planned to stay in the race.

Hung posted on her Facebook page Friday evening that she feels blue as she sees the nation shrouded in blue over the past few years, but she will more firmly defend the values and ideals that the KMT should stand for.

This weekend the KMT Secretary-General Lee Si-chuan apologized to Hung for the party's treatment of her. The public has been strongly disapproving of the KMT's handling of Hung and this will cost the KMT in the election.

Hung's strident pro-China stance was hurting the party -- the public sees Taiwan as an independent, sovereign country, according to the government-run news site -- and the KMT wants a candidate who will mouth the 1992 Consensus and pretend that the status quo isn't independence, like Ma does.

Some in the Hung camp -- the Deep Blue bitter-enders -- are calling for a secret vote at the Party Congress rather than the usual show of hands/acclamation. Eric Chu and President Ma both have called for party unity and consensus on the issue. These are codewords for the party base to obey the orders of the party elites.

Hung herself has constantly shifted positions -- last week on Wednesday she said she would not go quietly, then Friday she was saying she would go quietly for the good of the party, but then over the weekend she told a group of supporters that she would not back down. How do those supporters see Hung?

A crowd later yesterday gathered at the Martyrs’ Shrine, where Hung’s office had invited her supporters to “recapture the spirit of the KMT on which it was established” with Hung.

Some supporters were heard shouting “Eric Chu is a hanjian [漢奸, a traitor to the Han people].”

Chu is a traitor not to the KMT, Taiwan, or the ROC. Chu is a traitor to the Han people. Nothing better shows how at heart, the KMT is a colonial system whose legitimacy resides in ethnic chauvinism.
_________________
Daily Links

• WAY COOL: Taiwanese city maps WWII and now, overlaid
• ROFL: Unleash your mystical warrior Chang
• Ketagalan Media: Who will stand against the DPP?
• Lack of leadership is responsible for KMT problems. Some in the media finally noticing.

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

UPDATED BREAKING: Hung isn't giving up without a fight + Polls + KMT Congress

An old temple in Tunghsiao

BREAKING: KMT approves Party Congress on issue of getting rid of Hung. English report

As so many predicted, KMT Presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu is not going to let herself be ousted without a fight. The TT reports:

“I am sorry to have let news reports in the past two days worry my supporters. All of a sudden, what started off as a groundless rumor has become a serious issue. This is all because of my insufficient campaigning efforts,” Hung told an impromptu press conference held at KMT headquarters yesterday afternoon.

....

Stressing that she is reluctant to believe rumors that the party wants to replace her, the deputy legislative speaker said that the public has always loathed the KMT for its backroom deals, close-doored meetings and quid-pro-quo agreements.

This mess is not over. Tracking all the news flow the last couple of days has been amazing. At one point the media was reporting that Hung was threatening to release tapes she'd made of her talks with KMT Chairman Eric Chu -- later denied -- and Chu and Hung went at it in the media. Hard to tell what's going on because so often our Golden Retriever media here is basically Pravda crossed with The National Enquirer.

Today pro-unification (former) gangster Chang An-lo, AKA White Wolf, threatened to storm KMT HQ in support of Hung, forcing the deployment of police. There were many reports of Deep Blues saying they'd never vote for another candidate, and a friend said his office mates in his government office were characterizing an election slate with Chu instead of Hung as "two traitors and Tsai". The KMT divided on the issue of its own internal divisions: there's nothing like the KMT proposing dropping a candidate because she's... too KMT.

Klaus Bardenhagen sent around this video on Facebook of a pro-Hung demonstration today, where he said they first shouted "Eric Chu come out!" and then followed that with "Eric Chu step down!"

By keeping Hung in the race, the Deep Blue KMTers are saving the legislature... for the DPP. On Monday there were news reports that the KMT itself was saying the Party would find it difficult to make 22 seats. A longtime central Taiwan news reporter who has been following the election told me that he doesn't see the KMT winning a single seat south of Miaoli -- Taichung and Changhua are all going to other parties. Even if someone else runs for President, there won't be any great change in this.

Of course Eric Chu was saying he was ready to shoulder the burden of running if Hung drops out. This will not make him popular in New Taipei City -- he promised many times to serve out his term if elected. If he has to step down as mayor New Taipei City will be lost because its denizens will be angered by his betrayal. Don't forget, the City Formerly Known As Taipei County is the most populous in Taiwan. Already roughly half of it votes DPP and the KMT only won by a nose last time. And those angry citizens will be voting in the mayoral, presidential, and legislative elections.

Wang Jin-pyng, speaker of the legislature, rival of President Ma, and unofficial leader of the Taiwanese faction politicians on whose loyal service KMT power rests, keeps saying "I dunno" whenever he is asked about all this. Not a factor, at least publicly. Many KMTers have either left or are threatening to leave the party, or have decided not to run. As I noted a while back, Wang is finished after this election. Who will the faction politicians turn to then?

Solidarity.tw sent the latest TISR tracking poll results around, saying "Neutral 36.8, Pan-Green 33.2 (DPP 26.7, TSU 0.5), Pan-Blue 27.6 (KMT 19.5, PFP 2.6)". The left hand shows the color, the right hand, the party ID. The long KMT slide continues as young people are moving into the OTHER or DPP camps.

This goes hand in hand with the latest poll from the pro-KMT TVBS station (images courtesy of @FormosaNation, which finds that nationally DPP presidential candidate Tsai is crushing Hung 46-21 and Tsai is winning in every region....

...even the north which is a traditional KMT stronghold. It's pretty obvious what this will mean for the legislative election.

Now waiting on Hung's Veep choice. Will she choose a local faction politician? Or will it be another Deep Blue ideologue like herself?

Does anyone even care? The damage that Ma Ying-jeou has done to the KMT is incalculable and permanent. I'm lovin' it.

PS: Thanks KMT for making a boring election interesting again, for a minute.

--------------------
Daily Links:

• Jerome Keating on the election
• Chinese propaganda: coming soon to a conference near you
• Saving Hakka
• Tsai Ing-wen begins Taiwan-Japan friendship tour

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

HUGE BREAKING: Hung to be pulled in favor of Chu

A woman works with a fishing net on a river in Miaoli.

This week the saga of KMT Presidential Candidate Hung Hsiu-chu took another surreal turn. As the weekend began there were many reports that KMT insiders were putting enormous pressure on the party to get rid of current presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu, who is destroying party support at the local level. WantWant offered some thoughts on the KMT's implosion today.

The day began with a Liberty Times story that said Hung was done and KMT Chairman Eric Chu would replace her. Denials flowed. But then UDN later reported that there is going to be a Party Congress the 17th or 24th at which the charter would be amended, her nomination repealed, and Chu selected as the candidate. See Solidarity for the full report in translation, FocusTaiwan alludes to the problems in English, Apple Daily in Chinese. As I write Apple is reporting Chu's words: "I am willing to shoulder the burden."

Well, things are about to get very interesting, including legal challenges, court interpretations of election laws (will Chu have to give up New Taipei City, and if so, when?), perhaps a by-election in New Taipei City, and some bloodletting at the top of the KMT. If Chu runs, it will mean that President Ma Ying-jeou's power is diminished -- Hung was his anointed candidate and a signal of the ascendancy of the die-hard bitter end KMTers. The fury at Ma within the KMT runs deep, which may help Chu overcome Ma. But Hau waits in the wings for when Chu fails to get elected and has to step down as Chairman. Remember that when Chu loses, Ma will still be President. He will then attempt to recoup his power within the KMT. New Year promises renewed struggle within the KMT.

New Bloom has an article on Hung's rise and fall. I shall miss her terribly. Her continued candidacy would have been so good for Taiwan....

UPDATE: Hung ripped the Party on Facebook.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Foreign Policy Talk-talk Rises With Xi in US

Driving out to work in the fields.

This year is the 29th anniversary of the founding of the DPP, and Presidential Candidate and Chairman Tsai Ing-wen made a speech in front of numerous foreign dignitaries. It's in Anglais here. All those dignitaries were a positive sign for Tsai: clearly they expect her to win. A few excerpts:

As we closely monitor international events, including the Syrian refugee crisis, we believe there is a clear need to establish a domestic legal mechanism that will enable Taiwan to join international efforts to assist refugees.

Furthermore, we plan to expand operations at our rescue training center in central Taiwan, where we will share Taiwan’s valuable experiences in responding to natural disasters at a regional level. We will also actively work to reduce tensions in regional flashpoints, such as the South China Sea, where confrontation is threatening to roll-back decades of peaceful relations in the region.

While being mindful of our strategic interests in the area, we are ready to engage in dialogue with different parties with the purpose of finding a diplomatic solution.

....


To achieve this, a future DPP administration will be committed to following both international law, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and respecting the freedom of navigation. We also see great potential for Taiwan to play a more valuable role globally.

.....

Another one of our international priorities is to build up our relations with our neighbors in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. I am pleased to announce that a future DPP administration will pursue a ‘New Southbound Policy’ in the years ahead.

The New Southbound Policy is old DPP wine in new bottles; the DPP has long advocated southward investment. Hung Hsiu-chu, the KMT Presidential candidate, immediately complained that Tsai should be affirming ROC sovereignty over the South China Sea, a position that no doubt pleased her bitter-end nationalist supporter base, but which placed her far outside the mainstream. As usual...

Note that Tsai's comments on Freedom of Navigation -- a term she actually used, not implied, and one beloved of US policymakers -- align her squarely with the US. A southbound turn would be great -- the Ma Administration has done its best to ensure relations with SE Asia and India are not good, yet those are areas where Taiwan will be investing and conducting diplomacy in the future, natural allies against Chinese expansion. Good work, DPP -- I've said for years that Taiwan needs to deepen its relations with India. If China peeves India, a good move might be a state visit by Tsai to India.

Speaking of foreign policy, Peter Enav, once the chief reporter here for AP, now living retirement outside Taiwan, responded to Richard Bush III's blogpost at Brookings. Bush is a longtime Taiwan expert for the US government. Enav lambastes Bush's reticence and misconceptions:

Unfortunately, however, Bush’s article goes rapidly south from there — far south in fact — creating the impression that the “blame” for what might happen in cross-strait relations after Tsai’s election is a direct result of her personal shortcomings and those of the DPP in general. In the main he does this through the deliberate use of misleading and distorted language. Thus, for example, he says, Tsai has made only a “modest effort” to reassure China and the U.S. about her cross-strait policies when in fact she has gone out of her way to proclaim her fealty to maintaining the “status quo” in the area. Similarly, he says “the policies of a DPP government might cause a reversal in cross-strait relations,” rather than “the policies of the PRC [People’s Republic of China] might cause a reversal in cross-strait relations,” which given the fact that it is China that is making all the running on cross-strait pressure seems to be a far more accurate characterization of the facts on the ground.

And that is only the start. Also included in Bush’s article is his unfounded description of the Sunflower Movement as a radical fringe, when in fact it enjoyed widespread popular support and help set the stage for the devastating Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) defeat in last year’s nine-in-one local elections. Beyond that it also features his identification of the Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) candidacy as the main reason from Ma’s low approval rating (actually this began in 2012) and his signal failure to point out that support for Taiwan’s eventual unification with the mainland has traditionally been so low as to hardly bear mentioning. For someone of Bush’s deep-seated knowledge, this is a perplexing lapse.

Enav is right in many ways, and these are all things I've said. Yet...

One thing Bush didn't mention was the 1992 Consensus. This is interesting. Although Bush's essay is carefully positioned to align it self with the Establishment interpretive framework that the DPP disrupts China-Taiwan-Washington relations, he refrains from ordering the DPP into the 1992 Consensus cage. Kudos for that. Also, much of the essay is devoted to telling China what it should be doing, very gently. I'd like to read this as a hopeful sign that Washington is beginning to rethink the script on Taiwan...

Finally, William Stanton, former AIT director, has an outstanding piece at Thinking Taiwan on US China policy... read it all, but here's a chunk:

This strengthening Sino-Russian military cooperation is a deeply ironic refutation of the traditional U.S. geostrategic justification for improved Sino-U.S. relations. It is even more ironic when we consider that it was during the Administration of arguably America’s staunchest anti-Communist President — Ronald Reagan — that the United States decided on June 12, 1984 to allow China to make government-to-government purchases of U.S. military equipment, subsequently including avionics for the Chinese F-8 fighter jet and Sikorsky transport helicopters. In 1985 the United States even agreed to renovate Chinese ships to counter the growing Soviet fleet. In January 1989 the United States went further and decided to sell four of its then-most current anti-submarine torpedoes to China. It was only events in and around Tiananmen Square some five months later that halted all of these plans.

Yup. US China policy is heading in the wrong direction, and has been for years.

WantWant reports that Xi's policy towards the pre-1949 population is changing. Don't miss this article, which also has a good bit of interesting history. Years too late, and misled by the KMT, told nonsense by its own spies. and misled by Taiwanese businessmen in China -- probably on purpose to keep Xi on his current course, and to save their own skins -- China's Taiwan policy is seriously out of whack with the island's own popular identities.
__________________
Daily Links:

• Don't miss: want to understand the North-South divide in Taiwan politics? One huge factor is Taipei's continued colonial control of the island's budgets.
• ROCAF trainer lost with both pilots.
• Beijing once again makes a decision about Taiwan without consulting the Taiwan government. Ma's service to Beijing has really paid off....
• Baseball fans spurn "Chinese Taipei"
• Public econ confidence falls for sixth straight month, exports fell for fifth straight month.
• Taiwan through Canada's election lens.

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Thank you, KMT, for letting Hung have unscripted Press Conferences

Hung and the cheerleaders, with English subtitles. The blurb by Solidarity has it perfect:

KMT presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) today held a press conference to highlight the plight of 3 young women, Chloe (董梓甯), Chen Yi (陳伊), and Fan (小帆), former Lamigo Monkeys cheerleaders who were fired by the team soon after netizens pointed out they'd appeared in a young-people-for-Hung calendar. According to a team press release (http://www.lamigo-monkeys.com.tw/e_ne...), the three had repeatedly violated team rules by appearing in baseball-related outside promotions (under the name "Pro Baseball Goddess Group" 職棒女神團體) without first informing the club. However, in Hung's mind this situation was a perfect setup to make what's been the core argument of her campaign: That she and her supporters (such as these 3 women) are being oppressed and bullied by unscrupulous populists. But things took a memorable turn when the MC asked the women if they would continue to appear at Hung's events...they just appeared in her ads for the money didn't they?

Even more amazingly, her campaign team agreed to do an obviously unscripted press conference. The ideological bubble here is double: not only Hung trying to get people to support her claim that evil populists abuse her righteous cause, but apparently everyone on her campaign team shared that ideological judgment, because nobody appears to have done the sane thing and made sure it would work. Controlling the presentation is basic to campaigning, no? LMAO.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Catching Up Summaries and Links

Lanyu. Because boats.

People are always asking me, "How did you beat schizophrenia?" and I'm like, "Shut up! You're not real!"

Ok, couldn't resist leading with a joke. Happy to be blogging again.  At last a brutal run of work is over. And so we can revisit last week...

Hung says Populism will lead to Nazism: This was another classic moment for Hung Hsiu-chu, the KMT's Presidential candidate [WARNING: MAY CONTAIN MAKE TRAINS RUN ON TIME-LIKE SUBSTANCE]. She posted on Facebook (translated by Solidarity)

Governing the country through populism: The final, most extreme example of this is obviously the Nazis. The Nazis ceaselessly created enemies within the country to control the entire society. Think about it: Although Taiwan isn’t that extreme, isn’t our situation like that? It’s like that classic saying: “When the Nazis were killing the Communist Party, I wasn’t in the Communist Party, so I said nothing. When Nazis killed the Jews, I wasn’t a Jew, so I said nothing. When the Nazis killed the Catholics, I was a Protestant, so I said nothing. When the Nazis arrested me, there was no one there to speak for me.” Isn’t this kind of scene a little familiar to us?

When soldiers are bullied by populism, we aren’t soldiers, so we don’t speak. When teachers are bullied by populism, we’re not teachers, so we don’t speak for them, either. When civil servants are bullied by populism, we aren’t civil servants, so we don’t speak for them, either. But don’t you worry that on the day when you’re bullied, there will be no one to speak for you?

There’s no shortcut to resisting populism. The people in society who are willing to listen to reason can only choose to stop being a silent majority...

Note the opposing sides of her speech -- on one side, "populism", on the other, soldiers, teachers, and civil servants. These are all traditional KMT support groups, where the mainlanders who aren't elites can find jobs and pensions for themselves and their children. Obviously, by "populism" she means the majority Taiwan identity, and its various disorders, such as critical thinking, opposition to authority, and preference for democracy. This commentary reeks of colonialist fear of majority rule, as a longtime observer pointed out to me. This fear haunts the mainlander colonial class, since it is losing its privileges to this populist insurgency. Indeed, KMTers often claim that if the DPP ever gets the upper hand, they will all be kicked out of Taiwan, rank nonsense, but one of the ways the KMT keeps its people in line is through constantly feeding them a diet of fear and victimization.

Nazism, in this case, has no meaning, except to be a handy signifier of ultimate evil, since few Taiwanese have any real understanding of it. But, there's a bit of pleasing sound association in Chinese: the word for Nazi is 納粹 while the word for populism is 民粹. The second character, cui4, is the same in both. Thus, it has the same pleasing childish appeal of saying something like "Trump is a chump!" in English (sorry, can't remember who pointed that out to me).

The Glaser Mess: UDN carries its statement kinda sorta admitting it might not have been exactly right [WARNING: MAY CONTAIN APOLOGY-LIKE SUBSTANCE] (via KMT):

In an article carried in the September 11 issue of this newspaper, it was reported that Glaser thought Xi hoped that the US could play an active role in stabilizing cross-Strait relations and that the next President of Taiwan must accept the “1992 Consensus.” Glaser reportedly said “I would guess” to predict what Xi might bring up in his meeting with President Obama.

The correspondent’s report from Washington D.C. contained no error, nor was it misleading. However, the headline was less than precise. The United Daily News apologizes for its imprecise headline in the above-mentioned article.

J Michael Cole at Thinking Taiwan describes the situation: the headline wasn't imprecise -- it was 100% wrong, and hard to believe it wasn't deliberate:

This is what happened today with the UDN article, which was headlined 美智庫學者：下任台灣總統 須接受九二共識, or “American think tank: The next president must accept the ‘1992 consensus.’” The problem with this headline is that nowhere in the article does the American academic in question — Dr. Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, whose comments during the Q and A are the basis for the article — make such a statement.

It would be tempting to blame the reporter for the mistake, and they often are. But in this case, doing so would be invidious, as Alex Lai (賴昭穎), the Washington correspondent for UDN, got it right. Twice in the article, the author makes it clear that Dr. Glaser is speculating on what Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is likely to say during his visit to the U.S. The report says: 葛來儀表示，中方沒提出台灣問題才會讓她訝異，她推測習近平要傳達的訊息會是美國在確保兩岸穩定上扮演更積極的角色；而為了兩岸穩定，下任台灣總統必須接受九二共識，更重要的是一個中國。不過，兩人討論台灣問題的時間應該不會太長。From the original transcript: “… I would guess that Xi Jinping’s message will be that the United States should try to play a more proactive role to ensure that cross-strait stability exists, and in order to have cross-strait stability, that there must be an acceptance by Taiwan’s next president of the 1992 Consensus, and more importantly, One China, and that the US should play a role in ensuring that that happens.”

Glaser was upset to be misquoted like that and said so on Facebook:

...since she's a major commentator on Taiwan in DC, UDN had to beat a tactical retreat.

Of course, Glaser set herself up for this by explaining what Xi would do, instead of analyzing and deconstructing the situation. Academics, media people, and commentators need to stop talking for Beijing -- stop saying what Xi will or will not do, as if they means anything. I've been complaining about that for ages, and here's a good example of why. It's a terribly shallow and misleading level of information supply -- hardly can be dignified with the word "analysis." It always risks sounding as if the speaker is simply playing stenographer for Beijing.

Next time Glaser should sterilize the question by saying the truth: "The 1992 Consensus never existed. It's just a cage that the CCP and the KMT constructed when Chen came to power to imprison the DPP". Or just say "We'll have to see what Xi will do."

The problem is that if she spoke that truth, she'd never be invited to one of those shindigs again.

But once again, I thank Brookings and CSIS and all these other groups for always inviting the same people to say the same thing, Washington talking to Washington about Washington's constructions of Washington's world (doesn't it get terribly boring?). It means that people who want to know what's really happening will continue to visit my blog and all the other great blogs and websites in our Taiwan blogoverse. Thanks, guys!

Wang Jin-pyng: KMT, desperate, begins to consider revising its "rulz" [WARNING: MAY CONTAIN RULES-LIKE SUBSTANCE] to let KMT heavyweight and Speaker of the Legislature Wang Jin-pyng be an at-large legislator again.

Voices supporting Wang to become an at-large legislator had gained traction since the KMT's new Central Standing Committee (CSC) was elected in August. Liao Kuo-tung (廖國棟), a pro-Wang legislator and KMT CSC member, stated on September 12 that this seemed to be the trend, adding that he would exchange views with Speaker Wang on whether it was appropriate for him to propose revising the party rules at the CSC so as to allow Wang to serve another term as an at-large legislator.

Another pro-Wang legislator stated that a great deal of criticism of Wang was meant "to please deep Blue supporters." However, the same legislator stated that the KMT might only secure 45 seats in next year's legislative elections given the KMT's current low support ratings. Therefore, many KMT members hoped that Wang Jin-pyng could be renominated on the party list, so that he could stump for other KMT legislative candidates and help reverse the tide, leading the KMT to secure a minimum of 50 seats in the 2016 legislative elections, the same legislator concluded.

As readers know, Wang is the informal head of the Taiwanese KMT and especially of southern faction legislators. He is also hated by President Ma Ying-jeou, who at the moment has an iron grip on the KMT. Hence the comment I've bolded above. If Wang is not pleased, he might not campaign -- and that will cost the KMT.

But, as a friend commented, putting Wang in the Legislature implies that he will become the Speaker. But recall that up and coming KMT mainlander elite politician Hau Lung-bin, the former mayor of Taipei and the son of die-hard far right "unificationist" Hau Pei-tsun, is running for a legislative seat in Keelung. Will he be willing to step aside for Wang? Or does he want to be speaker -- doubtful if he can't get the support of the Taiwanese KMT.

The latest TISR poll is out over and Solidarity has the translation. Both the TSIR and a DPP internal poll discussed in another article have Soong and Hung below 20% and Tsai in mid-40s. Soong is fading and will continue to face, which he knows. Few KMTers have come over to him. The KMT is stringing Wang along, keeping him from moving over to Soong, and the Taiwanese KMT will take their cue from him.

And through it all, Tsai Ing-wen, DPP Chair and Presidential candidate, keeps gently talking. So far, a good ball control campaign, letting Hung do the talking.
_________________
Daily Links:

• Another brilliant ECFA success: Exports fall 14%. The slumping Chinese economy shows that the KMT's policy of putting all our eggs in the China basket is a dismal failure. 
• Another food processing scandal. Who could have imagined that?
• Chinese tour company demands Taiwan buses not show anti-communist films, documentaries. LOL.
• Film to show aboriginal struggle to protect farmland
• Everyone's an expert on China-US-Taiwan stuff. *sigh*
• Dengue cases reach 9000, maybe 10,000. This is terribly serious and threatens to spin out of control.
• Bon Jovi adds Taiwan concert after China says no. In this case China is clearly superior to Taiwan
• Noah Buchan's great piece on China, Han chauvinism, and Taiwan.
• Ex-President Lee refers to Japanese as dogs, KMT as pigs.
• This story about a drunk American who smashed a wine bottle over a policeman's head has peeved a lot of longtime expats here. The kid did not merit special treatment. The family's arrogance is insufferable. And now the rest of us have to live in the stink this turd left behind. I hope they offer the policeman some monetary compensation. 
• As we all knew, the Central Standing Committee of the KMT did nothing to Lien Chan for visiting Beijing and attending the parade.

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Hung Brings a Sword

A rain squall over the town of Dongshih.

Do not assume that I have come to bring peace to the earth; I have not come to bring peace, but a sword.

She's back! KMT presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu is back from her time off to reflect. Apparently the only reflecting she did was to look in a mirror... which told her she was the fairest candidate of them all...

My man Solidarity.tw pointed out on Twitter that Hung's three-day retreat was to a Buddhist temple deep in the throbbing Deep Blue heart of Zhonghe in the City Formerly Known as Taipei County, where from nearly 500 meters up she could look down on Taiwan. To reset the campaign, she simply withdrew even more deeply into her Deep Blue ideological bubble, emerging with renewed delusional ideological ferocity. As a catastrophically witty friend of mine put it on FB: "I see she's had a rewarding weekend with the Analects of Confucius."

Hung quickly hit campaign trail, and the DPP dismissed her remarks. The KMT news organ reported the words of the Great Schoolmarm:

Hung stated that she had thoroughly thought over all important issues in the last three days, and decided to “take the necessary path.” She noted that our country had become “sick,” and “the cause of the illness was not government policies, but politicians like us.”
....

Hung vowed to consolidate and deepen the “1992 Consensus: one China, different interpretations” while lauding President Ma Ying-jeou’s great contributions to cross-Strait relations. She noted that both sides of the Taiwan Strait should engage in political consultations. She advocated that both sides should sign a peace accord under three principles: respecting the Constitution of the Republic of China, upholding Taiwan’s parity and dignity, and following public opinion.

Hung argued that everyone in Taiwan clearly realized that the unsolved cross-Strait issues had made the Mainland the scapegoat for all the problems Taiwan was currently facing. Furthermore, Taiwan failed to accurately evaluate significant changes on the Mainland, which in turn became a breeding ground for populist politics in Taiwan, Hung said, adding, “If this is the foundation for all of Taiwan's problems, I would first tackle it to create real peace across the Taiwan Strait.”

Hung noted that when a group of students launched a protest against the cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement in March 2014, dubbed the “Sunflower Student Movement,” developments in cross-Strait relations began to face a deadlock. She asked whether Taiwan had to continue avoiding political issues or choose the DPP’s tactics to confront the Mainland.

Nothing has changed since her June speech to the KMT Central Standing Committee. The focus is still on China and the DPP is still the Great Satan which is creating chaos and disorder in society. Her 8,000 word manifesto -- the perfect length for our 144 character age -- contains little mention of anything concrete afflicting the people of Taiwan -- income inequality, wages and employment, energy, environmentalism, regional issues, highways, harbors, airports -- simply nothing. Instead, it froths over with existential frustration about the hysterical rumor-mongering press, populism, and the like. When she comes into office, all that will change! Discipline is what this nation needs! You can almost hear her slapping her open palm with a ruler as she gazes, eyes narrowed in suspicion, around the classroom...

Solidarity lived-tweeted it on Twitter, and observed that the final third was about her. A well-structured triparte sample from that section:

靜思期間，我反覆與自己對話。我的參選，在眾人眼中或許是個偶然，但何嘗不是否極泰來，正面力量必會湧現的必然？我會堅持參選的初衷，高舉「真誠、理性、和平」的大旗，用真誠來揚棄虛假，用理性來擊潰民粹，用和平來開啟大道，這樣我才對得起自己，也才對得起支持我的每一個人。因此我將視這次選舉意義為：這是國家領導人人格上「真誠與偽善」的抉擇；這是國家決策上「理性與民粹」的抉擇；這是國家方向上「和平與逃避」的抉擇。

During meditation, I repeatedly engaged in self-dialogue. My candidacy, in the public's eyes, may be unexpected, but out of it may come good fortune -- is it inevitable that a positive force appears? [rhetorical question -- mt] I will stick to the original intention of my candidacy, holding up the banner of "sincere, rational, peaceful": "sincerity" to eliminate the false, "rationality" to defeat populism, and "peace" to open the road. In this way, I will be able to face myself, yet also be worthy of everyone's support. Thus, I will treat the meaning of this election as: among the personalities of the national leaders, there is a choice between "sincerity and hypocrisy". This is also a choice between "rationalism and populism" in national decision-making. Finally, this election is a choice between the directions of "peace and escape" in national decision making.

Such paragraphs show how Hung views herself as a leader in the Confucian tradition -- leadership is a moral act, the election is a moral cockpit offering moral choices, and all depends on the righteousness of the leader. Of course, for Hung, it is axiomatic that this righteousness is defined and legitimated by its coherence with KMT ideology...

...Whereas Tsai is a leader in the modern tradition, a policymaker and thinker who talks about things like housing, energy, and income, yet is also capable of calls for progressive, human-centered moral action. Tsai's pragmatism and kindness represent the best of the Taiwanese spirit.

Hopefully Hung will come out with more papers on specific policies. There's not much more to say.  SDP leader Fan Yun put it best (TT), growling:

"Governing the nation is not a composition contest."

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Lien Chan keeps the anti-KMT flames going...

Probably not the best choice for a brand name in Taiwan.

Friday night I went downtown to have dinner with an old student. She's apolitical, she said, but her face took on a fierce look as she mentioned Lien Chan's visit to China "He's... he's... betrayed us!" she cursed.

She's hardly the only one. There's a lot of that going around this week, and plenty of it is being expressed by people who ordinarily don't say much about politics. None of my circle of observing friends expected quite this level of anger -- public anger is so great that no one dare speak up in support of Lien. Indeed, the anger forced the KMT to discuss disciplining Lien...

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) yesterday said that former vice president Lien Chan’s (連戰) attendance at a Chinese military parade would be referred to the party’s disciplinary committee “for discussion.”

Responding to some KMT members’ call for disciplinary actions against Lien, who attended the military parade marking the end of World War II in Beijing on Thursday against the party’s wishes, Chu reiterated that the party was committed to upholding the truth about the Republic of China government’s role in the war and had instructed party officials not to attend the parade.

It was all political theatre, of course, and Lien, a KMT heavyweight and Chairman for Life etc, isn't going to be sanctioned. It was just another example of the usual KMT rules-are-for-others behavior, but this time it is in the context of national outrage. Annette Lu, Chen Shui-bian's Vice President, and the TSU, one of the pro-Taiwan parties, even brought charges against Lien. Her statement put public anger into words:

“At the military parade, Lien saluted and applauded the Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops and their weapons, many of which are killing machines meant to be used against Taiwanese,” she said. “This is an outrage to our armed forces and Lien will be repudiated by people of all political stripes and ethnic groups here in Taiwan.”

Lu asked that Lien return his pension, echoing the KMT's rhetorical moves to strip former President Lee Teng-hui of his pension after he stated historical facts a couple of weeks ago. People are so angry somebody painted a statue of Lien's grandfather red.

Lien's visit created another propaganda mess for the KMT, in September five months before the election. The public isn't going to forget this, and many are going to want to punish the party -- recall that the KMT twice put forward Lien for President, in 2000 and 2004, and remains one of the most despised major politicians in Taiwan. This is just another issue that will "highlight the weakness and division in the Blue camp" as an acquaintance put it on Facebook.

Oh, and in case you thought this might fade away, next month is Double Ten, the national holiday, with parades and public appearances by political heavyweights. Imagine what will be said if Lien is there saluting ROC troops... and parades alone will remind everyone of Lien's behavior in Beijing.

Hung Hsiu-chu, the rigid ideologue who is KMT Presidential candidate and the source of much depression amongst KMTers, was in the news for her Facebook posts in which she accused the Party of "defeatism" thus highlighting the weakness and division in the Blue camp. For the DPP, Hung is basically the gift that keeps on giving...

“It is not that the public does not see the problems, [such as] the [mess] of domestic politics and the prevailing sense of defeatism within the party, but it seems that anxiety, instead of countermeasures, is what all we have. I am deeply apprehensive about this ‘frog slowly being cooked in warm water’ situation. Bodhisattva, can you bestow on me the needed wisdom to attain peace of mind?” she wrote.

....once again confirming the wisdom of DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen's low-key campaign in which she simply lets the KMT talk and demonstrate how hopelessly out of touch with the mainstream it is, while she talks about public policy.

Meanwhile, James Soong, PFP candidate, mainlander, and former KMT heavyweight, has also given his campaign a few days rest. Lots of pundits were wondering if the breaks might be related to Lien's appearance in Beijing -- they went and hid so that they wouldn't have to comment on the festivities in China.
___________
Daily Links:

• DON'T MISS: Commonwealth on the relationship between population flows and municipality contests for resources
• Good blog post on the sacred pig festivals in Taiwan
• Eric Chu, Chairman of the KMT, is also mayor of New Taipei City. Citizens panned his performance in latest Commonwealth survey.
• Shifting perceptions of dictator Chiang Kai-shek in Taiwan and China.
• Jennifer Lu of the SDP interviewed by Brian Hoie of New Bloom
• Ketagalan Media week in review
• The birth rate rose...slightly.
• Gas prices to rise next week.
• Another warning on the "red supply chain."
• There was another manifestation of the new identity this week -- in a small thing, but potent. A basketball coach criticized people hanging a pro-Taiwan banner at a basketball game this week. He was forced to apologize.
• Dengue fever on the rise. As a subtropical island whose diseases were conquered decades ago, Taiwan is on the front lines of global warming's reversal of these victories. At some point these diseases are going to reappear in the warm regions of the US. Maybe then a cure will be developed...

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!