New Taipei City is the biggest municipality in Taiwan, so if Chu gives up his mayoralty and runs for Prez, lots of voters are going to punish him.
If he doesn't run, and instead runs someone less popular, like Wang Jin-pyng, Hau Lung-bin, or (please please please) Wu Den-yi, the KMT will likely lose. If the party loses, it is traditional -- the Chairman must resign (as Chairman Ma Ying-jeou actually did after the crushing November defeat). Not resigning, especially if the KMT takes a beating in the legislature, may be difficult to pull off. Since Chu has handed off the day-to-day running of the KMT to Hau Lung-bin, the former Taipei mayor, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Hau will emerge as the frontrunner for the most powerful position in the KMT if Chu resigns. As Chair Hau can do grievous harm to Chu's chances in 2020 if Hau wants a shot at the presidency himself. Note that Hau is running the selection committee for KMT legislative candidates, meaning that many people picked will owe Hau a favor.
Surely Chu has considered this...
UPDATE: My man Ben observes to me:
If Chu doesn't run and KMT lose then Chu won't be to blame no? If Chu runs and loses then has to resign then Hau for 2020A loss either way will likely result in a Chu resignation, IMHO. Others comments?
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