Sunday, September 23, 2007

New Zogby Poll Shows Americans Support Taiwan into UN

A new Zogby poll shows Americans support Taiwan's entry into the UN. The poll was commissioned by the Taiwan Government Information Office, so take with the appropriate grain of NaCl:

The survey, conducted Sept. 6-10, 2007, shows that 61% believe the U.S. government should support Taiwan's petition to gain membership in the international body just as it did recently for Kosovo. Asked whether the UN should offer Taiwan membership, 55% of American adults said it should. Perhaps seeing it as a matter of consistency in dealing with allies around the world, American progressives are very supportive of this stance for the U.S. However, conservatives were not so sure. Among the very liberal, 77% said the U.S. should go to bat for Taiwan membership, compared to just 52% of those who considered themselves very conservative.

If the people of Taiwan pass a referendum to join the New York-based body, 70% of respondents in the survey said the U.S. should not oppose the island nation's petition to join. Since the early 1990s, Taiwan has applied for membership but has never won it because of opposition from Beijing, which, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, holds veto power over such applications.

Asked whether the U.S. should oppose China's stance on Taiwan's membership in the body and help Taiwan win membership in the UN, 52% agreed it should. On this question, conservatives were more supportive of Taiwan's cause than were liberals. Among the very conservative, 72% agreed the U.S. should help Taiwan, while just 48% of the very liberal agreed.

The survey included 1,205 U.S. adults nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Most Americans - 72% - said they think that, when it comes to UN membership, all countries should be treated equally and without discrimination, the poll showed. And 81% said the U.S. should respect every country's right to UN membership based on the principles of democracy and self-determination.

Ideologically, Americans were all over the lot on the question of Taiwan membership in the UN. While 43% of those who considered themselves very liberal favored Taiwan membership, 58% of mainline liberals backed it. Moderates were very supportive - 71% supported membership for the island nation off the coast of China, but just 43% of conservatives supported it. Among those ideological groups where support was lower, the percentage of unsure respondents was notably higher. The survey also showed that the more familiar Americans were with Taiwan, the more likely they were to its membership.

ESWN has some anti-Taiwan spew on the report, alleging coverup! here:

(1,205 persons interviewed from listed telephone numbers in USA (note: about 60% of telephone numbers in the USA are unlisted -- that is why professional survey organizations usually use random digit dial (RDD) methods). The cooperation rate is unreported, but it is claimed that it is 'comparable to other professional public opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.' WARNING: To the extent that they won't give you a number, it arouses suspicion that something is being covered up. It is very simple -- just say 'the response rate was XX%, which is comparable to other professional public opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.' Why won't they tell us what XX is?)

ESWN's position is cataclysmically hilarious: in the very post right below these complaints about the pro-Taiwan poll, he posts a poll on the Presidential election from TVBS -- without noting that TVBS is 100% Hong Kong Chinese-owned, that it supports the pan-Blue team in Taiwan's politics, and that its polls are notoriously unreliable -- and without a similar hack on its methodology. I leave it to the readers to decide whether that is the act of a complete and total hypocrite.

But the hilarity doesn't stop there. Roland's claim on the non-response rate is the usual ESWN bullshit. Consider this from another Zogby poll on whether Bush/Cheney should be probed over the 911 attacks:

This is a telephone survey of adults nationwide conducted by Zogby International from August 23 to August 27, 2007. The target sample is 1,000 interviews with approximately 71 questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. As many as six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. Weighting by region, party, age, race, religion, and gender is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

And their poll on the Iowa Caucus:

This is a telephone survey of [Republican Caucus Voters] conducted by Zogby International. The target sample is [487] interviews with approximately [28] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [party, age, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

I don't need to give you any more examples, do I? What Roland claims is horrible conspiracy actually turns out to be their standard disclaimer, found in front of all their phone polls. Nothing can be said about the non-response rate in this poll -- and it is certainly not some cover-up. For those of you interested in what Zogby actually does, their phone survey methodology is here.

UPDATE: Poor ESWN is still struggling manfully to cast doubt on this survey. Here's his post from today on the issue:
  • [Permalink] The USA Is An Armed Camp (09/24/2007) China Times noted the following issue with The Zogby International Poll on U.S. Opinions on Taiwan: on page 5 of the Zogby International report, the sample distribution has the following:

    Armed Forces Member: 860 (72%)
    Non-Armed Forces Members: 343 (29%)

    According to the US Census, the number of active duty and reserves is 1.4 million (or about 0.7%). The number of veterans is 13%.

    Could Zogby International have been interviewing only armed forces members? No, they said "samples are randomly drawn from telephone CD's of national listed sample." If they said that they used these listed samples and they had a response rate comparable to similar studies, then there is a mistake somewhere because this is an impossible result.

LOL. Laziness-induced pathetic desperation? Obviously the result is not impossible because -- doh -- the definition of what Zogby means by "armed forces" isn't given, so nothing can be known. Of course, it's the same way for other phone polls. All ESWN had to do is dial up another phone poll, like this one on the Bush/Cheney 911 connection, and you find the same ratio (770 yes, 236 no for armed forces). What does it mean? Your guess is as good as mine (but I wrote Zogby to ask). Since Zogby polls are usually pretty good....but don't expect to see that on ESWN.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

I only need to mention one thing to invalidate the poll.

"I bet most of the so call Americans don't even know where the hack Taiwan is." :) Neverless its history. I mean 70% of us can't even find Canada on a blank map.

Also, after reading some many expats blog. One thing really confuses me. Expats living in the US hardly gets involved in US politics. We usually tell them to leave if they are not happy. I wonder why China and Taiwan are so tolerated to expat political blogs or opinions.

Tommy said...

So Arty, are you saying that Americans are not tolerant to the views expressed by visitors, and are not tolerant to foreign opinions despite the fact that blogs and other foreign websites are not blocked in the US in general and would not be thanks to relatively balanced enforcement of the 1st Amendmant? And Chinese are so tolerant to the views of foreigners and of foreign blogs, so much more than Americans of course, that they routinely block websites behind the well-documented Great Firewall that contain opposing points of view or inconvenient facts, such as this blog and the BBC and, in fact, do not allow most foreign television into the country.

You are right, Arty. You really are confused.

Anonymous said...

So Arty, are you saying that Americans are not tolerant to the views expressed by visitors

We are not tolerated on this one. All I am saying is that I rarely see expats in US blog about US politics. Why is that? As for blocking foreign websites, US try to do recently to block all the new Bin Ladan videos.

Unknown said...

The results of this poll seem quite confusing to me. It shows that the US liberals are more supportive of Taiwan's UN bid, while the conservatives are ambivalent. But isn't it the Republican Party (who's more conservative) that has been traditionally more supportive of Taiwan, whereas the Democratic Party (who's more liberal) is less supportive of Taiwan? The party platforms and their constituents' views seem quite contradicting to me. Can anyone help me with this conundrum?

Mark said...

Arty said:
"'I bet most of the so call Americans don't even know where the hack Taiwan is.' :) Neverless its history. I mean 70% of us can't even find Canada on a blank map."


"I personally believe that US Americans are unable to do so because some people out there in our nation don't have maps and I believe that our education like such as in South Africa and the Iraq everywhere like such as."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww

We have people working on this stuff, Arty.

Anonymous said...

We have people working on this stuff, Arty.

Hehe...na, we are a nation of extreme with two peaks. Some Americans scare the hack out of me seeing how smart they are, and some Americans are just stupid as hell. However, tomorrow I will go listen to one of the smartest Americans, James D. Watson, speak who too bad is being accused of being a sexist and a racist but smart nevertheless.

It shows that the US liberals are more supportive of Taiwan's UN bid, while the conservatives are ambivalent. But isn't it the Republican Party (who's more conservative) that has been traditionally more supportive of Taiwan, whereas the Democratic Party (who's more liberal) is less supportive of Taiwan? The party platforms and their constituents' views seem quite contradicting to me.

American librals, Democrats, will support in the name of demacracy and self-determination if you ask them like that. However, if you explain to them further, they may change their minds. Hack as long as polls going another way, the democrats will follow. The conservatives doesn't really care about Taiwan. Most conservatives believe in non-intervention especially in foreign affairs especially they don't serve any interest to America. The poll mentioned Kosovo. Do you know the Republicans are against going in because it is not our bussiness. The only reason Taiwan is on their minds, it's because China is their theoretic enemy number 1. And the unfortunate part of the story is that unlike old USSR, China is doing trades with the US and lending tons of money to the US bussiness. It is hard to hate China when it is giving you mula :). Did you read the news on how China made Mattel to apologize to them? That's a prime example of soft power.

Runsun said...

Arty,

>>>>>>>>>>
American librals, Democrats, will support in the name of demacracy and self-determination if you ask them like that. However, if you explain to them further, they may change their minds.
<<<<<<<<<<

Didn't the poll analysis say that the more people understand Taiwan, the more they support the referendum ?

Tommy said...

"Did you read the news on how China made Mattel to apologize to them? That's a prime example of soft power."

I read an article in the SCMP the day before yesterday that made a more plausible argument to the contrary. China did not MAKE Mattel apologize, and you really have to look at how they worded their apology. Mattel said that the vast majority of the recalled toys were recalled because they had design flaws. They did not say that none of the toys had higher-than-average quantities of lead in them. They apologized because their actions made it seem as if Chinese toys were ALL defective because of crappy Chinese manufacturing, not that Chinese manufacturers do not have a problem.

I would not call this soft power at all since Mattel was under a real threat at the moment. Had they continued without making some kind of statement, they would probably have faced real retaliation on the Chinese side. Since the majority of Mattel's toys are made in China, Mattel simply could not afford losing the Chinese as customers. IT was about real hard $$$. "Soft power" would imply that Mattel made an apology simply because they admired the Chinese, truly valued them as good customers, or liked them in some other way.

Anonymous said...

Didn't the poll analysis say that the more people understand Taiwan, the more they support the referendum ?

The person did the poll predict it, I said the opposite. It is simply an difference in opinion. Btw, I have a fool proof plan for Taiwan to join UN, but I doubt you want to heard it or any American politicans.

Anonymous said...

arty is a troll, pure and simple. All he ever has to say are snide and non-constructive comments - I just ignore him these days.

He is obviously here to throw out random comments to annoy people reading the blog. He isn't interested in having a conversation, it's like those people who log onto the Sony website to make fun of Sony products or people who log onto Women's rights forum to make fun of women.

I'd just ignore him. He's like a little kid - if we ignore him, he won't get a kick from our replies and he'll just get bored and disappear.

Anonymous said...

arty is a troll, pure and simple. All he ever has to say are snide and non-constructive comments - I just ignore him these days.

Thanks I will keep on trolling. However, I don't think my comments are random. I just want to let you pro-Taiwan independent poeple know there is a price to pay for your movement including possibility of your lives. Americans (as an American citizen who actually live and worked in the US) will not come to help regardless what we believed. Is this constructive enough for you, Anon?

Also since you want me to be constructive here is how Taiwan can get into UN:

1. Declear INDEPENDENCE.
2. If China didn't punch you in the face or you fought off China's invasion.
3. Then you will be accepted into the UN. By then, Taiwan will truely earn US' respect and we may at that point help you to avoid China's veto. A loser usually stays quite.
4. Taiwan gets into the UN, it is really simple.

Of course, I highly doubt Taiwan will pass step #2, or have enough bulls to do #1.

I'd just ignore him. He's like a little kid - if we ignore him, he won't get a kick from our replies and he'll just get bored and disappear.

Btw, I am still reading a guy's life blog and not posting anything. He is pro-green and is working in a company with a main office in Shanghai. I wonder what his bosses will react if I forward his blog to his bosses in China. Trust me, I won't disappear.

Runsun said...

>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Didn't the poll analysis say that the more people understand Taiwan, the more they support the referendum ?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Arty said...

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The person did the poll predict it, I said the opposite. It is simply an difference in opinion.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

It's a result of the poll analysis, not a prediction:

"The survey also showed that the more familiar Americans were with Taiwan, the more likely they were to support its membership."

Can you show any evidence or reason to support your statement? Or all what you base is "I wish" ?

In that case, I would call it "dream", not "opinion".

Anonymous said...

"The survey also showed that the more familiar Americans were with Taiwan, the more likely they were to support its membership."

Go to the site and open the pdf file for the full report and show me where it states that. I know I know it states on the website but interestingly it is not in the full report. Weird?

If you find it in the full pdf report file than you are right. Btw, through out all the questions, other than the Asian courntries comparsion, China only appear in one question.