Saturday, October 14, 2006

Nelson Report on Nukes, Korea, China, US

I was going to blog madly on all this stuff on Thursday night, but as a I sat down, my wife put on a Lobo CD she had just bought. Instantly the Blue Screen of Death appeared in my frontal lobes. Further cognition being impossible, I attempted to reboot with a bottle of whisky....

Meanwhile I had written: The Blight in the White House (Pham Nuwen, where are ya when we need ya?) logged another spectacular policy defeat with the alleged North Korean nuke test this week. While I have some trouble bringing myself to believe that the North Koreans have set off a nuclear weapon, and not simply filled a deep hole with a zillion tons of conventional explosive (or pumped water into a fault zone to trigger a small quake, etc), it seems the world is forced to act as though the North Koreans have nukes.

A nuclear-armed North Korea has created instant familial feelings among the Powers in Northeast Asia. While our crazed US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton has been overcome with joy at the thought of hurling threats, sanctions, and even a blockade at North Korea, the Chinese are signaling that they are royally angry at this slap in the face from their long time partner -- "as close as lips and teeth" as they once described it. Of course they forgot to add that those lips and teeth were on different faces...the Nelson Report, the well-known Beltway insider's report, notes:

"The Chinese have not merely lost face, which is bad enough. They are genuinely angry and really worried about the long-range strategic implications, sources repeatedly confirm. There are strategic implications to this development, and they are potentially very positive for US-China relations, some sources add."

Interestingly, the Nelson Report avers that one reason China is seeking cooperation with the US to restrain our President from getting all panicky and doing something that local civilians, neighboring countries, innocent bystanders, future generations, and rational human beings everywhere will regret. China wants 'prudent' action. I wouldn't worry, if I were the Chinese, since all signs indicate that we are going to strike Iran and will be too impoverished and weakened to threaten N Korea. After Poland, Russia, I suppose...

And so today: I hadn't really believe that North Korea had set off a nuke, and the media is reporting today that no one has detected radioactivity in the area around the alleged blast site. What does this mean for Taiwan? Japanese rearmament received a big boost. New PM Abe's hardline stance received a big boost, and Abe is pro-Taiwan. The US and China received incentive to get closer together. You figure it out, I'm too tired.


Anonymous said...

I actually think this is good for Taiwan. It takes China's focus off the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is small potatoes. As a matter of fact, why doesn't China eventually invade North Korea. Everyone might be better off, especially the North Koreans. That is if China does it properly. After all, unlike the U.S., who have their hands or fingers, or whatever, in too many pies, China doesn't really have it's fingers in any pies, so to speak. There military could accomplish a lot. And as I said, with the North Korean thing, maybe they aren't even thinking of Taiwan for a long time.

I can't go into too many fine details, as the keyboard I'm using (at a different house) is a little clunky). But, this is a fun idea to chew on. Maybe this "crisis" (a bit overblown, as far as such appellations go) is a real Godsend.

Anonymous said...

By the way, I'm not actually saying or suggesting that China SHOULD do that. I'm just saying, hmm, would it be that bad an idea? If I were Hu or if I were the Chinese Communist Party... But I'm not. And I don't want to be. I don't consider myself enough of a betting man, nor do I consider myself a would be politician. I am just thinking out loud at the moment. No one take me 100 percent seriously, please. We shall all see what actually happens.