Le Roi Soleil as a Responsible Regional Player: L'Affaire Kitty Hawk

Yesterday China came out with a claim that it had denied Kitty Hawk a berth in Hong Kong because it was angered by US support for Taiwan (IHT has a similar story):

The Global Times, a tabloid published by the official party mouthpiece People's Daily, cited an unidentified People's Liberation Army senior colonel, as blaming Washington's decision to sell Taiwan an anti-missile defense system.

That «obviously sent the wrong signals» to Taiwan's leader, Chen Shui-bian, who China abhors for his campaign to assert the self-ruling island's independent identity.

«At a time when the U.S. side is seriously harming China's interests, there is no logic under heaven by which China should then be expected to open its heart and embrace him,» the paper said.

The Defense Department issued a formal protest to China on Wednesday over the two incidents and a Chinese military officer who is Beijing's defense attache in Washington was called to the Pentagon to accept the protest from a Pentagon Asia policy official.

China's foreign minister also met with U.S. President George W. Bush on Wednesday and blamed the incident on «a misunderstanding.

So China denies port entry to US ships twice, first says it is a misunderstanding, then presents this decision as a response to US moves in support of Taiwan and Tibet....

US decisionmakers are utterly flabbergasted. Recent incarnations of the Washington insider Nelson Report have captured the perplexity of the US Navy and official Washington at the behavior of the Chinese, who appear to have twice denied port calls to US navy vessels -- this despite the fact that the US Navy is the one service that has consistently attempted to forge relationships with the Chinese. From a couple of days ago:

....But its China's "attack" on the US Navy which has everyone really flummoxed. (Repeatedly noted, in our private conversations with DOD types, was the human cost of the expensive airline tickets purchased by the enlisted sailors for their families to join them in Hong Kong...all non-refundable. Happy holidays from your Chinese friends!)

As we noted last night, in the Bush Administration, China has had NO better friend, in terms of adult supervision of the relationship, than the US Navy. It was the Navy which worked to get around the stupid and self-defeating hostility of then-DOD Secretary Rumsfeld, by constantly seeking ways to build mil/mil relations...and thus confidence that in a crisis, adults on both sides could talk to each other in hopes of heading off something neither side desired.

Clearly, today, the US Navy has concluded that its efforts may have been for naught...and its senior leaders may fear there ARE no adults in power on the Chinese side...at least not in terms which a sophisticated (dare one say civilized?) international power would recognize.

A measure of the Navy's concern is that Roughead had his first press conference as CNO today, and this is what he talked about: China's willful violation of the most basic first law of the sea, by denying help actually requested by ships in distress.

The case in point...something which had gone un-reported until the Kitty Hawk incident...Beijing refused to allow two US Navy minesweepers to seek refuge in Hong Kong from an approaching storm, two weeks ago.

"As someone who has been going to sea all my life, if there is one tenet that we observe it's when somebody is in need you provide [assistance] and you sort it [the politics] out later," Roughead said, adding, "And that, to me was more bothersome [than banning the Kitty Hawk]..." Speaking in Hawaii, PACOM Keating echoed his boss, calling the minesweepers' denial "a different kettle of fish for us, in some ways more disturbing, more perplexing" because it violates the unwritten international code understood by all seafaring nations.

Press reports have speculated, some quoting unidentified Chinese sources, that the snubs against the US Navy, and what is being called a "wave of cancellations" of mil/mil contacts since the early Fall, are all due to Beijing's political ire at Bush Administration decisions on Taiwan arms, the Dalai Lama's Gold Medal, and the like. But there does seem to be a belated sense of the limits on this.

The rapid reversal of the Hong Kong decision, presumably attempted by Chinese Leadership political supervisors of the PLA, came too late to salvage the Kitty Hawk PR gaffe.

So it is not known if adult supervisors in Beijing concluded that blocking the minesweepers was "sufficient" message-sending, and that banning the Kitty Hawk was self-defeating over-kill.

And that's why even the experts now ask whether the PLA gets to make these decisions free of the civilian supervision required in all other advanced countries.

Note that not only has China prevented port visits twice, including once by vessels in distress, they have also been canceling military-military contacts. Next week China is scheduled to send a delegation to the Naval War College for a conference on maritime cooperation -- but Beijing has already killed plans for a reciprocal visit by US military representatives. Observe also the US language -- China's actions are the actions of an irrational child. They are not adult, unlike Us. We'll return to that, because that is how each side perceives the other.

Willy Lam over at the conservative Jamestown Foundation had a piece on the affair, arguing that the cancellation was due to a massive military exercise (highlights are mine):

The military drills, which started on November 19, covered a wide swath of the Pacific, including sensitive terrain east of Taiwan and north of the Philippine archipelago. While official PLA media have been reticent about the exercises, Hong Kong papers and military-related websites in China noted that their purpose was to simulate a “pincer attack” on Taiwan as well as a naval blockade. Elite battalions from PLA Air Force (PLAAF) units under the Guangzhou and the Nanjing Military Regions, as well as the East and South China Sea Fleets, were involved. They deployed hardware including Russian-made Kilo-class submarines, Sovremmy-class destroyers and indigenously developed Flying Leopard jet-fighters. Among new weapons tested at the maneuvers were 022 stealth missiles and Russian-made SS-N-27 “Club” anti-ship cruise missiles. (Ming Pao, November 24; www.tiexie.net, November 24; United Daily News, November 25)

Several hundred commercial flights along China's southeast coast—the majority of which originated from airports in Shanghai and Guangzhou—were postponed during the exercises. It was not until last Saturday that the East China Civil Aviation Bureau lifted the highly disruptive aviation control (People's Daily, November 26). Li Jingao, an official of the CAAC East China Air Traffic Management Bureau, claimed: "The delay was resulted from a backlog caused by the control in previous days." Military analysts noted that PLA authorities did not want the Kitty Hawk battle group—whose 8,000-odd sailors had earlier planned to spend Thanksgiving in Hong Kong—to be in the vicinity. This is despite the fact that during his visit to Beijing earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and his hosts made new pledges to boost confidence-building measures, including establishing a military-to-military hotline. On a deeper level, the Kitty Hawk incident reflected Beijing’s anger at Washington’s plan to sell Taiwan a $940 million upgrade to its Patriot II anti-missile shield. Beijing apparently also wanted to protest President Bush’s presence at a Congressional ceremony last month honoring the Dalai Lama, deemed a “splittist,” or leader of Tibet’s pro-independence movement (Washington Post, November 23; Associated Press, November 23).

There are also indications that this stupendous muscle-flexing was targeting more than the usual suspects; for examples Taiwan and the United States. Parts of the exercises took place close to the disputed Paracel Islands, including the Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos in the South China Sea, a few islets whose sovereignty are claimed by Vietnam. Last Friday, the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry pointed out that the war games were a “violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty.” Le Dung, the Ministry's spokesman, said that “It is not in line with the common perception of senior leaders of the two countries as well as the spirit of the recent meeting between the two prime ministers on the sidelines of the 13th ASEAN Summit in Singapore” (Vietnamese News Agency, November 23).

US Sec of Defense recently visited Beijing and issues of military transparency were raised. Let's test how well you understand China. Did China:

(a) notify relevant media, local administrative centers, and foreign nations of this exercise?

(b) not tell anyone

If you answered (b), the cigar is yours. Lam reports:

Most notably, there is the issue of military transparency, which was raised by Secretary Gates during his visit to China. The military drills were not reported by any official Chinese media. There are also indications that the PLA did not alert relevant Chinese government departments, let alone countries in the Asia-Pacific region, of the maneuvers.

All this was followed by the inevitable US protests and calls for re-assessment:

In response, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, Representative Duncan Hunter, urged Bush in a letter Thursday to sit down with top lawmakers to discuss "an adjustment of US policy towards China."

"As these two incidents clearly demonstrate, China is embarking on a new more confrontational relationship with the US and we need to be prepared," wrote Hunter, a candidate for the party's presidential nomination.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asian affairs David Sedney complained formally to the Chinese military attachi in Washington on Wednesday.

"It is not, in our view, conduct that is indicative of a country who understands its obligations as a responsible nation," said Admiral Tim Keating, the head of the US Pacific Command.

Of course, this is all wrong. China is not embarking on a "new, more confrontational relationship" with the US. This is because China does not have any "relationship" with the US, or rather, it has the same relationship with the US as it does with every other nation.

Anyone who has observed China's relations with the outside world for any length of time has seen this pattern again and again. In the midst of negotiations with the Vatican, it consecrates two bishops for the state Church. In the midst of negotiations over the Torch coming to Taiwan, it denies a visa to the representative of the city of Kaohsiung to discuss games held there in 2009. Arriving in India for negotiations, its ambassador announces a whole Indian state is part of China. Some months back the Chinese government shut down an expat magazine in China that was widely considered the most sympathetic and supportive expat rag in the nation. China gets the Olympics, and crackdowns on the internet, and journalists intensify, while state security arrests double. Catch the pattern?

Now Bejing has denied Kitty Hawk a berth in Hong Kong, thus abusing the one service in the US government that has consistently supported it, to the extent that the previous head of PACOM apparently instructed his underlings not to hold military exercises using Beijing as the imagined target. The one service that has consistently displayed an eagerness to form relationships with China. The one service that has imagined itself in partnership with China.

The fact is that in doing all these things, the Navy demonstrated that it had arrayed itself in the proper position of suppliant to the Dragon Throne. Just like those petitioners living in the petitioner's village outside of Beijing, or the local peasant who comes before the mighty magistrate to ask for his benevolence. The Navy thinks it has a right to reciprocity, since it has given so much. But in China there are no rights that apply to one's superiors -- superiors give things out of benevolence, and in both receiving petitions and in handing out benevolence, the great demonstrate their greatness. (In addition to displays of benevolence, the Throne also demonstrates its greatness by abusing those who abase themselves before it. They should be grateful for Our Attention.) From this perspective, when the Navy petitioned China for openness, it validated the greatness of China, and presented itself as a suppliant for imperial benevolence. When it made offerings of information and access to the Throne, that is only right, for gift-making is the proper behavior of suppliants, and the Throne in its Benevolence accepts all gifts. Most regrettably, with its insistence on reciprocity, the Navy has defined itself as a collection of small children making wearisome demands on Throne. If the Navy really understood its relationship to the greatness of the Dragon Throne, it would wait humbly for some display of benevolence, just like those petitioners in the petitioners village outside of Beijing.

The Chinese leadership is not annoyed at US weapons sales to Taiwan or President Bush's escapades with the Dalai Lama, no what really annoys them is that these barbarians -- like small children -- require explanations. Nobody gets explanations from the Great Man, his decisions are final, and wasn't it benevolent of him to have considered your petition in the first place? So when Beijing explains its actions in terms of weapons systems to Taiwan or awards to the Dalai Lama, Washington is simply getting an explanation at a level it can understand. Like a small child. Hopefully someday official Washington will grow up, shut up, and array itself in a properly obeisant position with respect to the Dragon Throne, patiently awaiting such drib-drabs as the Throne, in its greatness, may grant it. By the way, when are you going to give us Taiwan? That would make a nice token of your devotion to Our Greatness.

Louis XIV of France described himself as the Sun King -- as the planets revolve around the Sun, so France should revolve around him. Like modern China, absolutism in 17th century France struggled to impose its will on the provinces, which maintained strong local power bases, and convened "courts of reunion" to provide a legal fiction for annexing neighboring territory. Like modern China, seducing a never ending stream of foreigners into buying into its special, exotic status -- China must be treated like a Ming vase, Chris Patten once remarked -- France dazzled all with its myth and pomp, making France the court language of diplomacy throughout Europe. Like France of Louis XIV, China, as Lucian Pye once observed, is an empire struggling to become a state, and in no place is that clearer than in foreign policy. Be grateful, US Navy, that Le Roi Soleil has chosen to permit you to align itself with its light. And if you're really, really contrite and humble, we may allow you to sacrifice yourself on Our Behalf again.

UPDATE: The Pentagon says China has refused 9 Navy vessels and an aircraft were refused entry in the last month:

China has refused nine U.S. Navy ships and one Air Force jet entry to Hong Kong in the past month, U.S. military officials said Friday.

Senior Navy officials said that Beijing denied permission for the USS Reuben James, a Navy frigate, to make a holiday port call for sailors at the end of December.

The rejection occurred last week, at the same time China refused to allow the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier battle group into Hong Kong for a Thanksgiving holiday port call.

A U.S. Air Force C-17 flight that had been scheduled for a routine resupply of the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong also was denied permission to enter, Navy officials said.

The Kitty Hawk battle group was eventually granted permission to enter, but by then the ships were well on their way to port in Japan.

Days earlier, China refused to give two U.S. Navy minesweepers safe harbor in Hong Kong during a storm on the high seas.

The United States has filed a formal protest with China over the decisions.

U.S. officials are baffled about the reason or reasons for the port call refusals. China recently has expressed concerns about U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and President Bush's October presentation of a Congressional Gold Medal to the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader.

The US has protested these refusals.

[Taiwan] [China] [Kitty Hawk] [missiles] [US] [US Navy]
A friend reminds: For an in-depth academic study of this, see James Hevia's excellent work.

Richard Kagan Announces New Book on Lee Teng-Hui

Taiwan Scholar Richard Kagan announces his new bio of Lee Teng-hui.

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Member Publication: Kagan,
_Taiwan's Statesman: Lee Teng-hui and Democracy in Asia_
********************
From: Richard C. Kagan

I am writing to introduce my book to my colleagues. I would appreciate any comments, criticisms, and discussion.

The full citation is :

_Taiwan's Statesman: Lee Teng-hui and Democracy in Asia_. Naval Institute Press. 2007. ISBN 978-1-59114-427-4.

My biography goes beyond a strict and traditional analysis of Lee's democratic reforms in order to provide the context for Lee's character by tracing his intellectual heritage and political philosophy. Lee's experience in the Japanese Army and his witness to the aftermaths of the Fire bombing of Tokyo, and the atom bomb destructions of Hiroshima and Nagasaki came at a time when he was passing through the maturing of a young adult. The impact was for him to regard the spiritual path as more important than the sole achievements of technology.

Lee's decision to become an agricultural economist was drawn by the tide of the Manchurian opportunity to live in a cosmopolitan and modern environment. But most significant was his deep personal attraction to the philosophy of Zen Buddhism, and the spirituality of Christianity as expressed in the explanation of the meaning of life and death.

The life of Lee is partially modeled on Richard Brookhiser's study of George Washington. In that vein, this biography is a study about character. It is about how Lee self-consciously built his own identity with regard to Taiwan, Japan, and democracy and the world. Like other post-colonial leaders, Lee invented his own nation in modern and global terms. The book provides a new history of Taiwan, a critique of the "One china" policy, and a list of suggestions for a new policy toward Taiwan.

The title of the book, "Taiwan's Statesman" draws from the Greek and Christian meaning of the term. A Statesman is a herder of human beings who not only takes on the mission of providing for their external security but also creates a disposition of virtue within his flock.

My research involved hours of interviews with President Lee as well as shadowing him during his daily calendar of events. I have read sources in Japanese and Chinese, and have sought information from many of his colleagues, and from scholars. I have addressed in a new way the issues of "One China," Taiwan identity, and Lee's commitment to a Taiwan independent from China's rule and authority.

Richard Kagan
Hamline University
[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP]

Daily Links, Nov 29th, 2007

What's hiding out on the blogs today?

Rye at Ni Howdy talks up the Edward Curtis Indian photo exhibition.

Craig offers great images of Angkor Wat. And Jiji too.

Pinyin news blogs on an article suggesting Mandarin students write characters using software. Meanwhile Talking Taiwanese talks about reading it. And A-gu has a post on a teacher who teaches in Taiwanese.

ROC the Boat with an excellent summary of the recent US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement Roundtable in DC.

Josambro, who did the Lonely Planet Guide for The Beautiful Isle, was interviewed on Rick Monday's show.

bent on Taiwan's uber-powerful compter industry.

Kerim has a great post on how Kevin Rudd might be good for Taiwan.

MEDIA: China's state media say it is the Yankee imperialist's fault that the Kitty Hawk got dicked around on Thanksgiving. A government survey says Taiwanese would choose independence over annexation to China, if those are the only choices, and adds:

Contact between the countries has "carried the public farther and farther
away from China instead of closer," You said.

When asked about their impression of China, 55 percent of respondents said they had a negative impression, while 33 percent said their impression of the country was positive.

When asked about their impression of the Chinese Communist Party, 70 percent had a negative impression and 17 percent a good one.

And the Sports Affairs Council released its book on the 50 greatest cycling routes on the island...

[Taiwan]

Wow! How did THAT $10 million get there?

I've often mentioned the Chu An-hsiung case, still canonical as far as Taiwan city council speakers are concerned, but certainly KMT's Lien Ching-tai, former city council speaker of Tainan deserves an Honorable Mention, as he was recently charged with fraud in a land case that highlights how the System works...

Former Tainan County Council Speaker Lien Ching-tai has been taken into custody after being questioned by prosecutors in the southern city of Tainan over his alleged involvement in profiting from a fraudulently-obtained loan on over-valued properties, local prosecutors said Tuesday.

The detainment came after Tainan prosecutors brought in 22 people from Tainan City and Tainan County for questioning regarding the scandle, the prosecutors said.

Lien later reported to the Tainan District Prosecutors Office with his lawyer after the office served Lien with a subpoena, the prosecutors noted.

Lien denied that he had obtained the loan by fraud, but the prosecutors said that they still filed an application with the Tainan District Court to detain Lien on charges of breach of trust, forgery, and criminal intimidation.

According to the prosecutors, Lien allegedly collaborated with high-ranking executives of First Bank 10 years ago to obtain the loans by asking the executives to overestimate the value of several plots of land and buildings used by Lien as collateral.

Lien defaulted on payments of the loans immediately after getting the money, defaulted, and let the bank to auction off the collateral, the prosecutors went on.

Lien then asked his friend to bid for the properties in the auction, and threatened other interested parties, causing them to drop their bids, which resulted in a very low bidding price, the prosecutors said.

Lien was therefore able to buy back the properties through his friend and gain NT$100 million (US$3 million) from the process, the prosecutors noted.

Lien made the news last year with a bribery case that was at once breathtaking in its chutzpah and yet in its way totally typical of the innocence of illegality on The Beautiful Isle:

A Taiwan High Court judge yesterday was detained for allegedly taking bribes and then ruling in favor of a number of incumbent and former Tainan County councilors.

"The Taiwan High Court's Tainan Branch judge Hsu Hung-chi (徐宏志) is suspected of accepting more than NT$10 million (US$309,000) from former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislator Chou Wu-liu (周五六) and then acquitting Chou and a number of defendants," Hsu Mei-nu (許美女), the spokeswoman for the Tainan District Prosecutors' Office, said yesterday.

How did Lien's buddy Chou get in the position of allegedly having to bribe a High Court Judge? Turns out it was business as usual in Tainan back in 1994:

In March 1994 KMT Tainan County councilor Lien Ching-tai (連清泰) and Chou ran for council speaker and vice speaker, respectively, and allegedly colluded to bribe councilors.

Lien and Chou reportedly took 34 councilors to Thailand before the speakership election, where the bribery took place.

Lien and Chou then each received 47 votes and won the speaker and vice speaker posts.

Yes, allegedly bribed the entire city council to elect him, meaning that electors and electees were both equally allegedly corrupt. City Council Speak posts are plum posts, since they do so much oversight and direction of land development, one of the cornerstones of local political economy in Taiwan. How was the bribery discovered? Here's my favorite part:

Prosecutors found that [Vice Speaker] Chou's wife, Chen Hsiu-hsia (陳秀霞), deposited more than NT$10 million into {Judge] Hsu's bank account in August 2001.

Prosecutors summoned Chen for questioning on Thursday. Because she was unable to explain why she deposited the money into Hsu's account, the Tainan District Court on Thursday night approved the prosecutors' request to detain Chen.

Stunning. The wife of a co-defendant simply deposits the money directly into the judge's account. What could be simpler? No messing around with difficult international fund transfers to Bermuda or Switzerland. Just drop off the $10 million bribe at the post office bank on the way to the supermarket....

[Taiwan]

Media shorts

I took time out from editing a friend's book on Taiwanese popular religion to have look at the news. My friend has returned to the UK where he is going to Oxbridge, or Camford, or perhaps Hogwarts, to study, after which he will become a Don. This was very confusing to me, since, being from America, I had thought that the only way to be a Don was to kill the previous head of the Family. I guess the British have found a way to remove the violence from the process....

Anyway, the Hindustan Times offers a travel piece entitled "Taiwan for Lovers: Visiting Sun Moon Lake." Taiwan through other eyes....

For all the lake's charms, getting there remains half the fun. Taiwan is not particularly large. Despite its population of 23 million, it could easily fit into the space of Switzerland. It's only a few hours drive from the hectic capital city of Taipei to the sparsely inhabited mountains around the lake.

On the way, visitors drive past rice fields and banana plantations. There's no reason to rush, meaning plenty of time for stops at places like the Wu Wei Culture Tea House in Taichung.

Built in the traditional style and situated next to a small lake, the teahouse boasts a covered terrace stretching over the water, filled with splashing red and yellow koi.

"We think that a comfortable atmosphere is important for truly enjoying tea," says Lin Chun-chun, as she serves the hot beverage. She enters the room with a wooden tray; decked out with a teapot, tall, narrow glasses and small bowls.

First Lin heats several large teapots. Next, she pours hot water into a smaller teapot before pouring the water into the larger pot, which has been filled with green tea. After letting it steep for a short while, Lin pours it into the tall glasses. But the tea in these glasses is only for sniffing.

Then it's poured into the flat saucers, from which it is slowly drunk while the next serving steeps. The procedure can be repeated up to seven times.

Lugang is also worth a side trip. The city is known for its craftsmen, working in small courtyards as they carve furniture or statues of Buddha. Wu Duen-how, a renowned master of making traditional lanterns, is the most famous.

Wu is more than 80 years old and has been making and painting the lanterns for 60 years. He has no plans to stop because he already has so many images of new lanterns in his head, he says.

The landscape starts getting hillier between Lugang and the lake.

Instead of millions of Chinese tourists, maybe we can promote ourselves to India instead. Have to do something about all that pork fat in the food, though.... Meanwhile the Taiwan government is working on promoting our growing solar power industry, which has been the subject of more than one article in the last couple of years:

The Taiwanese government Tuesday forecast massive growth in its solar energy industry, expecting its total value to be worth 403.1 billion Taiwan dollars (12.5 billion US) in 2015, compared with 21.1 billion dollars in 2006.

By 2015 Taiwan should account for seven percent of the world's production of solar power generation equipment, compared with two percent in 2006, said the Taiwan External Trade Development Council, quoting the Bureau of Energy at the economics ministry.

The brief flap over the possibility that the Marshall Islands might switch diplomatic recognition appears to have resolved itself in favor of Taiwan:

A Marshall Islands opposition party tipped to win the presidency supports continued ties to Taiwan, despite signals of a switch in diplomatic loyalties to China, the party spokesman said on Tuesday.

Litokwa Tomeing, a new member of the Pacific Ocean nation's opposition Aelon Kein Ad party, has visited China and voiced support in the media for switching ties to Beijing. He could become prime minister, as his party looks set to take control of the legislature following recent elections.

But spokesman Tony de Brum said Aelon Kein Ad would continue to support Taiwan if it won an expected 20 to 22 seats in the 33-member legislature and formed a new government.

Reuters has a piece on Chen's absolutely asinine suggestion that he might declare martial law to get the KMT-controlled areas of the island to obey the election laws in the recent referendum mess. The piece contains one very nice paragraph, something almost never seen in the international media -- check out that first paragraph below:

Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) takes satisfaction in having pressured the then-ruling Nationalist Party (KMT) to end decades of martial law in 1987, heralding the island's move to full democracy.

It also prides itself on putting space between Taiwan and China, which has claimed sovereignty over the self-ruled island since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. Raising the "China threat" is an oft-used DPP electoral tactic.

Probably some of you are wondering why I haven't blogged on the martial law thing. Frankly, I have no clue why the President said something that stupid.....your speculation is as good as mine. Yet another incident showing that appointing the President the Chairman of the Party during a major election is a really, really stupid idea. One good thing about this incident: it offers an excellent out for Chen to resign that position and put someone in there who has only one thing on her mind: get DPP candidates elected.

And don't miss bent, who has the links for today....

[Taiwan] [India]

Nelson Report on the Kitty Hawk Incident -UPDATE-

The Nelson Report, the Washington insider report, gives the point of view of Beltway insiders on the recent flap over the recent problems with the visit of the carrier Kitty Hawk to Hong Kong:

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US-CHINA...let's start with the bad news. You saw last week that Beijing embarrassed itself by completely mishandling a long-planned Hong Kong courtesy call by a US carrier...first canceling, then lamely trying to reverse the verdict on "humanitarian grounds".

By then it was too late, PACOM commander Keating had already reversed course, and, we understand, bad weather meant the most prudent track back up to Japan lay right through the Strait of Taiwan.

We are assured by official sources that weather really was the reason for this politically interesting route...it was not a "right back at you" from the Navy, even though there's no question that the admirals are plenty steamed-up about Beijing's actions.

(We say "Beijing" because under the Basic Law, Hong Kong Authorities have absolutely no decision-making authority on the substance involved here...foreign policy, and military to military relations. This whole game was played out in Beijing.)

Adm. Keating allowed as how he was "perplexed" by China's screw-up. He was being polite. Every serious China player we know, including likely officials in a Democratic presidential administration starting in '09, had the same reaction we did...this is bad news on multiple levels.

First, the action and reversal indicates, once again, a weak, inconsistent command and control system at the very top levels of Chinese leadership. As with the ASAT shoot-down earlier this year, and the EP-3 incident in 2001, it shows that you can't always count on the senior political leadership to be on top of the PLA leadership, except to react to bad decisions.

"We have no 'incidents at sea' agreement with China, even though this helped keep the peace with the Soviets for a generation; we still don't have more than an alleged decision on a 'hot line'; 'transparency' is almost entirely one-way, especially on exchanges", was the "indictment right off the top of my head, since you ask", from one likely senior player in a Democratic Administration.

Sources in Beijing say the Hong Kong cancellation was made because of Chinese pique at the US announcement of PAC-2 upgrades for Taiwan, and that the reason China was angry was an alleged failure by Defense Secretary Gates to brief them on the upcoming decision while he was in Beijing.

Experts here say the PAC-2 upgrades have long been in the works, and that even if Gates didn't give a specific "FYI", China's hitting out at the US Navy was not simply out of proportion, it shows a systematic failure of analysis on the part of the PLA. Both Adm. Keating, and CNO Adm. Roughead have both visited China this year, among many Navy efforts with Beijing.

As one defense analyst argues, "the Air Force is using 'China rising' as its main 'sales pitch' reason for future long-range bombers, but the Navy, despite China's talk of a 'thousand ship navy', has taken a calculated path of out-reach and cooperation, whenever possible, and the Navy is assiduously working to engage China in maritime security cooperation."

In fact, we'd note, that's the title of a conference set for Dec. 5-6 at the Naval War College, with many important PLAN and other officials invited. Whether these senior Chinese will be allowed to attend is still, apparently, an open question. Other sources note that back in October, apparently to show Beijing's displeasure over the Congressional Gold Medal subsequently personally handed the Dalai Lama by President Bush, China cancelled "a whole slew of mil/mil activities, although unlike the Hong Kong decision, this was done quietly", we're told.

Since then, "there are a lot of delegations going back and forth", so perhaps next week's conference will be a chance for the authorities in Beijing to demonstrate to the US Navy, at least, that it does "get it" and is serious about reciprocating in a fashion appropriate to a mature power.

As one email read last week, over the Thanksgiving break, "the Chinese really don't seem to understand that military-to-military relations are important in and of themselves, and as a critical component of keeping the peace. No one is naive here, obviously, about 'friendship', but if China continues to play mil/mil as just a cheap, signal-sending game, and refuses to understand the strategic importance of what we're offering them, this should concern every government in Asia as much as it does us."

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UPDATE: The Kitty Hawk issue is not the only thing the Navy is concerned about, according to AFP:

Admiral Gary Roughead, the chief of US naval operations, said he was even more bothered by China's refusal to allow two small US minesweepers to enter Hong Kong last week to avoid a tropical storm and refuel.

"As someone who has been going to sea all my life, if there is one tenet we observe it's when somebody's in need, we provide, and we sort it out later. That to me was more bothersome," Roughead told reporters here.

He said the navy sent a tanker ship to refuel the minesweepers, the USS Patriot and the USS Guardian, which then proceeded to their homeport in Sasebo, Japan.

He called China's actions "surprising and unhelpful."

Roughead said the Chinese have given no reason for the action. He said denying US navy ships port calls at Hong Kong was unusual although not unprecedented.

Keating said the incident with the minesweepers was "very unusual."

"Those two minesweepers were engaged in an operation, not against China, but out in international water, and a storm blew up and they needed to get into a place of refuge. And you know, Hong Kong's nearby and it's a great place to go," he said.

"So, for the Chinese to have denied those two ships in particular, small though they may be, that is a different kettle of fish for us, and is in ways more disturbing, more perplexing than the denial for the Kitty Hawk's port visit request," he said.

More in the article....

[Taiwan]

Lyndon LaRouche Speaks at China Reunification Conference

This is the kind of thing you just can't make up. Blogger Woolly Days from downunder found this article from a Chinese news service. To get the full flavor, read Woolly's post on the mad LaRouche, a nutcase who perennially runs for president....

These are central themes for the now 85 year old Lyndon LaRouche. LaRouche has covered the entire political spectrum in his time. He began his political career on the Marxist left before gravitating to the Democrats. Though never endorsed by the party, he has run in the last four presidential elections (including one he ran from prison). In the 1980s, he was given unfettered access to the NSC and CIA for reasons never divulged but he claimed were related to President Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI).

However he is best known for being sentenced to 15 years in jail for fraud related to fundraising for his movement and for his bizarre projects and conspiracy theories. He proposed a Eurasian land bridge to the Americas as “an economic engine of world development”. He also claimed Queen Elizabeth and Prince Phillip head a "financial oligarchy" that rules the world, that the British monarch is also responsible for most of the world’s drug trafficking, that Zionism is part of this conspiracy and that the Ku Klux Klan is controlled by the FBI.

Googling will bring up more on the amazing LaRouche. Meanwhile Chinaview.cn reports on him:

The United States and China should join hands in an effort to reform the world financial system, which has currently entered the most deadly crisis in recent centuries, a renowned U.S. economist said Saturday.

"The end of the present world monetary-financial system is inevitable, unless the system is replaced by a new world system during a relatively brief, remaining time available," said Lyndon La Rouche at a luncheon at the Forum on U.S.-China Relations and China's Peaceful Reunification.

La Rouche, also a famous political activist, said the present international financial crisis could only be brought under control when major countries like the U.S. and China cooperate.

LOL. I wonder what the Americans at the conference thought:

The forum, jointly organized by several local Chinese-American, gathered nearly 100 government officials, scholars and activists form the U.S. and China, who were expected to discuss issues on U.S.-China relations and their implications on the Taiwan issue during the two-day event.

Too classic for words...

[Taiwan] [China]

Guangdong vs Gujarat

Hot special economic zones. Booming industries. Busy ports. Rapid economic growth. Massive inflows of foreign direct investment. Yup, that's Guangdong Gujarat.

This week's Asia Times has a long study of the success of the Indian state of Gujarat (Wiki Gujarat):

The northwestern state of Gujarat - notorious for horrific communal violence in 2002 in which over a thousand people, mainly Muslims, were killed - has emerged as India's favored destination for investments. Its dazzling economic success is being highlighted by Chief Minister Narendra Modi in his election campaign as he makes a bid for a third straight term in office in upcoming assembly elections in the state.

According to a recent study by the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, Gujarat stood first in the country with investments of US$17.8 billion in 2006-07 or 25.8% of India's total investment of $69 billion during the year.

The article is well worth a read, for it gives a glimpse of India, clicking along at 8-9% annually growthwise....

"Gujarat has emerged as India's special economic zone [SEZ]," Modi boasted in his speech at a recent meeting of the World Economic Forum at Dalian in China, referring to huge success that Gujarat has experienced in attracting domestic and foreign investment.

Gujarat's experience with setting up SEZs has been pretty smooth. Unlike in other parts of the country where land acquisition for SEZs has encountered massive protests, in Gujarat where 33 SEZ proposals have been approved since the state's SEZ Act was passed in 2004, the process has been largely trouble-free. Barring the case of Reliance's SEZ near Jamnagar, where farmers went to court, and some protest in Por near Vadodara, Gujarat has seen little protest over land acquisition.

This is because Gujarat's port-led development of SEZs involves setting up SEZs along its 1,600-kilometer-long coastline. SEZs are located on large tracts of fallow and saline land in Kutch and Saurashtra. This is arid land that had no takers earlier; but the SEZs now hold out the promise of economic activity and are welcomed by the locals.

The Mundra SEZ, for instance, is being built on land virtually unfit for human habitation and it has brightened economic prospects immensely. A plot here which might have fetched a price of $2,500-$5,000 a few years ago now sells at $250,000. Farmers are eager to sell their land. This is not the case in other parts of India where SEZ developers are eyeing rich agricultural land that farmers are reluctant to sell.

At the same time, Asia Times also reports that across the Strait, Guangdong is close to realizing its long-cherished goal of overtaking the Four Little Dragons, according to Chinese officials:

Guangdong Governor Huang Huahua declared last week at a public function that the province could overtake Taiwan this year and would continue to strive to catch up with South Korea.

Chinese media quoted Huang as saying that Guangdong's GDP was expected to reach more than US$390 billion for the whole of 2007, after registering a year-on-year growth of 14.7% from January to October.

According to official estimates, Taiwan's economy is expected to grow 5 % to more than $380 billion this year. In 1998, Guangdong's economy reached $103 billion and that of Singapore generated $82.8 billion. In 2003, the province's economy hit $191.4 billion, surpassing Hong Kong's $158.5 billion.

"From 1991 to 2006, Guangdong registered an average annual economic growth of 14.4%, which was not only more than four times the average annual growth in the world, but also higher than the average annual growth of 'the four little dragons' in the 1970s when they experienced rapid growth," Huang said.

"Guangdong generated an economy of 2.6 trillion yuan [US$351 billion] last year, increasing by 14.1% when compared with 2005. The figure doubled that in 2001 and accounted for one-eighth of the country's total," he said.

However, experts say it may not be easy for Guangdong to catch up with South Korea in a few years. In South Korea, the Ministry of Finance and Economy in July revised its GDP growth estimate for the whole of 2007 to 4.6% from 4.5%, due to strong export and domestic demand. In 2006, South Korea's GDP grew by 5% to $897.4 billion, due to popular demand for key export products such as mobile phones.

As readers of this blog know, I've long advocated closer Taiwan-India ties. China is not the only country in the world growing at booming rates, and there is no reason why Taiwan should not be trying to cash in on Indian growth as well. The government has recently been working to develop India ties -- as evidenced by the Taitronics expo there in September and the signing of trade agreements between the two nations.

[Taiwan] [India]

China Opposes UN Referendum...as Earth still orbits sun

Reuters reported that China was once again kvetching about the UN referendum, a harmless piece of electioneering that can have no concrete effect, since China possess a veto in the UN and can block Taiwan's entry whenever it pleases.

China has again prodded the United States to oppose a controversial referendum on U.N. membership by Taiwan and warned Washington to stop arms sales to the island China claims as its own, state media said on Tuesday.

The purpose of this exercise is apparently to get Washington to say something to Taipei. But the latter two players have already expressed their mutual displeasure with each other's stance, and neither the obdurate Bush nor the election-bound Chen is going to back down.

Meanwhile French President Sarkozy, in Beijing drumming up business for French companies, was kind enough to say a few words on behalf of Beijing about the referendum:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday that his country opposes "Taiwan independence" and the island's push for a referendum next year on UN membership.

France holds that there is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an integral part of China, which is the general position of the international community, Sarkozy said.

Any unilateral initiative is "ineffective and unjustified", especially the planned referendum, he said during the meeting with President Hu Jintao.

"It (the referendum) is not a useful initiative. It is therefore regrettable and I hope it will not be pursued."

Several European leaders have spoken out on China's behalf. Last month it was EU Preznit Javier Solana who did the Beijing kowtow. As the Economist reported this summer:

Why is the EU meddling? Taiwan is a thriving democracy and big trading partner (almost as important as India or Brazil). The explanation is simple and unedifying: the EU is doing China's bidding. Chinese rulers regard the Taiwan referendum as a sneaky step closer to an eventual declaration of formal independence by the island.

China expends extraordinary energy on pestering other governments to preserve the strange limbo inhabited by Taiwan, a self-governing island of 23m that it insists is a wayward province. Whenever Taiwan irks China, its ambassadors appear at foreign ministries worldwide, demanding that Taiwan be rebuked.

An internal EU memorandum sheds light on the way such strong-arm diplomacy works. Prepared by officials working under Javier Solana, the EU's foreign-policy supremo, it describes a meeting, late last month, between the Chinese ambassador to the EU, Guan Chengyuan, and a top Eurocrat. According to EU note-takers, Mr Guan called the referendum provocative and destabilising, and said China wanted EU support, as it did not want to have to use “the last resort”—an apparent reference to its threat to use force, if necessary, to “reunify” Taiwan.

China always welcomes people to meddle in its "internal affairs", so long as they agree with Beijing. Fortunately the EU rank and file is hardly as craven as its leadership -- despite calls from leaders the embargo on arms sales to China remains intact, and 84 members of EU lawmaking body called for representation for Taiwan in the UN last month.

A group of 84 members of the European Parliament released a joint statement Thursday to express their support for Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations.

The members representing various political groups, who have gathered in Strasbourg, France for the European Parliament's plenary session, noted in their statement that Taiwan is a sovereign state that has never been governed by the People's Republic of China and that it is wrong and unfair for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to claim that Taiwan is part of China and deny Taiwan's eligibility for membership.

They pointed out that in a report on China issued last September, the European Parliament called for representation for Taiwan's 23 million people in international organizations and that to this day, Taiwan remains excluded from most of these organizations.

Calling Taiwan a full-fledged democracy with a highly developed economy that can make valuable contributions to the international community, the members urged the European Union's 27 member states and other U.N. members to seriously consider Taiwan's application for membership in the world body.

China knows full well that the referendum cannot succeed. Why is it pushing the EU and Washington so hard to suppress Taipei? Because if it attacks Taiwan's democracy itself, it risks stirring up the DPP's pro-Taiwan voters, and souring KMT supporters with its heavyhandedness. Hence it wants other to do its dirty work. Hopefully US and EU officials won't continue their policy of running interference for China.

[Taiwan] [China]

A Man, A Plan, Japan

Ma Ying-jeou has returned from his recent trip to Japan, and it appears to have gone well, reports Max Hirsch of the Kyodo News service:

The KMT, which identifies strongly with Chinese culture and nationalism, has traditionally fared poorly in wooing Tokyo.

Ma hopes to improve those relations as Japan becomes a more important trading and strategic partner for Taiwan.

"I've changed my mind about Mr. Ma," said Lower House member Takeo Hiranuma after meeting Ma on Thursday. "I think his proposals are good."

Behind Ma's improved reception in Tokyo are his vows to improve Taipei-Tokyo ties while maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait — a potential global flash-point that would likely impact Japan.

China, which has vowed to unify Taiwan with the mainland, threatens to attack the island if it tries to make its independence stance a permanent one.

Those threats keep Tokyo concerned because any conflict in the strait could see intervention from the United States, which would drag the Japanese military into the conflict via a joint defense pact and affect its southern territory.

Ma wooed lawmakers this time by promising peace in the strait through improved economic and security relations with Beijing. He also vowed to make Taiwan a "hard rock" by maintaining defense spending "at no less than 3 percent of Taiwan's growth domestic product."

Ma typically does well overseas, where settings and speakers can be controlled, and he can be on-message more easily, than in Taiwan, where speaking settings are more spontaneous. People might have been polite and positive, but the KMT is pro-China, not pro-Japan, and nothing Ma can do will change that; indeed, the last time Ma was in Japan, he was grilled for being anti-Japanese, as the article observes.

Ma's proposals are also completely bogus. As China scholar Arthur Waldron pointed out in a letter to the Taipei Times yesterday, if Ma wants to raise defense to 3% of GDP, all he has to do is command his party to pass the legislation, for the KMT and its allies control the legislature. Ma in fact said this in February of 2006 during his trip to England -- yet no progress has been made on the issue in the 20 subsequent months. There is nothing to stop Ma from keeping this commitment, except, of course, that he doesn't really mean it -- it is a claim intended purely for foreign consumption, as is par for the course for Ma trips overseas. In any case the DPP is also committed to a 3% level....

....and Ma's free trade proposal is old news -- the 30th East Asian Economic Conference proposed that five years ago, and that was hardly the first time for that idea to surface either. Ma staying on-message means simply repeating stuff that foreigners like to hear. In its way, the lack of freshness in Ma's approach is almost an insult to his audience.

Frank Hsieh is due for a trip to Japan next month. I'm sure we'll hear good things; Hsieh studied there.

Meanwhile, as is the pattern for Ma, he announced his policy that he would not negotiate to annex the island to China if elected head honcho:

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said yesterday that he will not negotiate with China on unification if elected president.

Ma made the remarks when meeting with members of the Japan-ROC Diet Members' Consultative Council in Tokyo, the Central News Agency reported.

The council, better known as the Nikkakon (日華懇談會), is made up of senior Japanese politicians across party lines and has been the main channel of communication between Taiwan and Japan since the two countries cut diplomatic ties in 1972.

During the meeting, Ma said he would pursue a policy of "no unification, no independence and no armed conflicts" if elected next year.

The presidential candidate said he would neither hold unification negotiations with China, nor support independence for Taiwan.

Ma said he would maintain the "status quo" in cross-strait relations, but would seek to negotiate with China on "normalizing economic ties, signing a peace treaty and increasing Taiwan's presence in the international community."

The presidential hopeful added that he would ask China to dismantle the ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan before attempting any peace negotiations.

Ma often saves "policy" announcements for foreign trips, because the foreign media is listening at that time. At home his statements get attacked by his opponents and by his party allies, exposing holes and dampening their value and "confusing" the media. He knows that the missile issue plays well with foreigners; he made the same announcement last year in London, although he backtracked when he got back to Taipei.

Simultaneous with Ma's visit was a conference on Taiwan-Japan economic relations.

A two-day Taiwan-Japan economic cooperation conference drew to an end Wednesday with both sides agreeing to strengthen exchanges and cooperation over a wide range of fields, including customs, agricultural, fishery and investment affairs.

A spokesman for the Taiwan delegation to the conference said that the two sides have agreed to beef up strategic cooperation and information exchanges in intellectual property rights (IPR) protection.

According to the spokesman, Taiwan promised during the meeting to intensify its crackdown on commercial piracy while Japan offered to arrange for Taiwanese law enforcement officers to study its IPR protection systems and counterfeiting prevention measures.

On the proposal that the two sides establish a substandard foodstuff reporting mechanism, Japan agreed to conduct working-level dialogue with Taiwan in this regard, the spokesman said, adding that Japan also promised to study the feasibility of forging a mechanism for the exchange of public health statistical data.

Also in the Japan times this week was an excellent editorial on the referendum issue.....

Ostensibly, America's reason for opposing the referendum is that it would intensify tensions across the Taiwan Strait. In fact, at a U.S.—China summit on the sidelines of the last Asia—Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, Chinese President Hu Jintao reportedly told U.S. President George W. Bush that China was opposed to the referendum itself, and even hinted that China might invoke the national anti-secession law, which means military action. That would certainly intensify cross—strait tensions. The veiled threat, though, is largely rhetorical. Calm judgment suggests that the real problem lies elsewhere.

The question at stake is rather simple. If a referendum is actually held next spring, will China use military force? The answer, if put to all schools of China experts including pro-China ones, invariably would be "no."

With China hosting the next Olympics, it is simply inconceivable for that country to resort to force if Taiwan, instead of making a formal declaration of independence, just changed its name from the Republic of China to Taiwan in its annual membership application to the United Nations. If so, then what compelled Hu to drop the dark hint, and what is his real motive?

To Chen and his supporters, the purpose of the referendum is clear: Having voters reaffirm their Taiwanese identity and thereby bring electoral gains to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). In opinion polls asking "Do you consider yourself Taiwanese or Chinese?," an overwhelming majority say Taiwanese. So it is a foregone conclusion that most people will prefer the name of "Taiwan," not China, in its application for U.N. membership.

In democratic elections everywhere, political parties devise their own methods for campaigns. As long as the campaigns are lawfully carried out, outsiders should stay on the sidelines.

What China wants to see may well be the opposite of what the DPP wants to achieve. Beijing wants the Nationalist Party (KMT) to win in the next presidential election, so it is trying indirectly to promote the KMT, because U.S. opposition to the referendum hurts the Democratic Progressives while helping the Nationalists.

What happened four years ago comes to mind. Following public protests of the referendum from both the U.S. and Japan, Peng Ming-min, senior adviser to the Taiwanese president, told me during a visit here, "If Chen Shui—bian loses in the presidential election, it will be because of interference from America and Japan." It turned out that the DPP won a razor-thin majority.

In effect, the U.S. was, and is, interfering in Taiwan's elections between the KMT and the DPP in ways that favor the former. This seems to be the inevitable conclusion given that the possibility of tensions escalating through the use of force is virtually nil.

For the Fukuda administration, the right course to follow is to stick with the policy of the previous administration, no matter what China says or does.

The people of Taiwan are our neighbors who have a deep affinity and close feelings of good will toward Japan. At a time when they are trying to run their country as democratically as Japan, it is unconscionable for the Japanese to betray these feelings. Moreover, Japan has no legal or moral reasons for doing so. After all, interference in the internal affairs of other countries is strictly prohibited among modern states.

China may say that Taiwan represents its internal affair, but by asking foreign countries to interfere, China is tacitly admitting that Taiwan is more than just an internal affair.

.....along with this interesting article that revealed that South Korea and the Republic of China both urged the US to keep Okinawa nuke-filled in the interests of their security:

The documents, found at the U.S. National Archives by Yasuko Kono, a professor of Japanese political and diplomatic history at Hosei University in Tokyo, show that some of the well-known U.S. reluctance in those days to return Okinawa without keeping its forces there nuclear-capable was in part due to demands from Seoul and Taipei, which at the time faced threats from the Soviet Union, China and North Korea.

Despite the South Korean and Taiwanese objections and the U.S. reluctance, Okinawa was returned to Japan in 1972 after Prime Minister Eisaku Sato and U.S. President Richard Nixon agreed on Nov. 21, 1969, on its return with the U.S. giving up the right to use military bases in the prefecture as it saw fit, including maintaining atomic arsenals, as was the case during the occupation period.

[Taiwan] [China] [Japan] [Ma Ying-jeou] [missiles]

Underwear Day in Taichung

With all the negative publicity about our fair city from our high crime rates and the fact that we host the world's biggest polluting power plant, we get a break:

The Audrey Underwear company in Taizhong city named November 21 Camisole Day to celebrate record sales.

Much to the excitement of their male colleagues - all 500 women working in the firm's headquarters were encouraged to wear only camisoles and knickers.

"We have been waiting for this day all month. Today, we are super high, and don't know where to put our eyes," salesman Cai Mingda told Straits News.

More than 90 percent of female workers reportedly went along with the spirit of the day and worked in their underwear.

[Taiwan]

Shannon Meet Up Dec 9 (Sunday!)

From the Home page of the Reporters without Borders, referring to the 2008 China Olympics.

Jerome Keating sends around the latest skinny on the upcoming Shannon Meet Up: UPDATE: This is now confirmed for Sunday, the 9th. The Shannon is next to Dan Ryan's on Tunhua N. Rd, across from the concert venue.

++++++++++++++++

To all,

I am planning our December meeting for Sunday, December 9th in the morning.

Our speaker for the month will be Steve Yates, who has worked with Heritage Foundation and spent five years in the Whitehouse under Dick Cheney. (No he never went hunting with Cheney.)

Steve is an affable, straightforward person who will be in town for a Straits Exchange Conference on Saturday the 8th.

I see three immediate areas of interest.

--Some may want to know how things operate in a conservative foundation like Heritage.
--Others may want to know about goings on in the White House.Or being inside the Beltway.
--Others may want to know about what was said at the StraitsExchange Conference.

Steve is a Giuliani man and probably will be working on his campaign if he is nominated. He can down a beer with the best of them. He was in the group that I travelled with for two weeks in Europe; he was great company and is a staunch supporter of Taiwan.

I have still to get confirmation from Shannon's about having the meeting on Sunday instead of Saturday; I will let you know shortly.

Jerome

++++++++++++

[Taiwan]

KMT Claims DPP Is Inventing Economic Growth Figures -UPDATED-

DPA (Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH), a German news service, came out with an appalling article on growth that simply regurgitates KMT claims on the economy without any context or countervailing evidence offered. The article reports the KMT attack on the government's growth figures.....

Taiwan on Friday released encouraging export figures but many Taiwanese are questioning the accuracy of the government's earlier economic figures.

The article is technically correct -- many Taiwanese probably do question the figures -- but nowhere does it note which Taiwanese or why. Note that by saying "many Taiwanese" rather than "the opposition KMT" in the opening frame, it creates the impression that this claim is neutral among election campaigns, though in reality, of course, it is an article of faith among KMT supporters. A few paragraphs further down, it says:

On Thursday, the central statistics office said Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.92 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, marking the fastest pace in three years.

Some economists and government critics have questioned the accuracy of the government figure. In addition to the fact that many Taiwanese are out of work, the growth estimate is far bigger than the average year-on-year real GDP growth that Taiwan has posted over the last five years.

First, again observe -- the article says "some economists and government critics" without mentioning that this position is the position of the political opposition. The slanted framing should by now be very clear. How slanted is the framing? The terms KMT and opposition never appear.

"Many Taiwanese out of work"? But the latest unemployment numbers are below 4% and hiring is on the upswing, as the pro-KMT China Post reported the other day. Nor is there anything unusual about 5.46% growth. Here are the growth rates from DGBAS, using 2001 prices:

1997 6.59%
1998 4.55%
1999 5.75%
2000 5.77%
2001 -2.17%
2002 4.64%
2003 3.50%
2004 6.15%
2005 4.16%
2006 4.89% (since revised to 4.68%)
2007 5.46% (est)

In other words, if you look at the range of growth rates rather than the average for the last decade, 5.46% lies well within the range. But never mind that. All DPA had to do was cite countervailing independent evidence: the Bloomberg survey I blogged on earlier this week, a survey of 16 economists who work in international firms -- independent of the government, needless to say -- that pegged Taiwan's growth rate at 5.12%. The two figures differ by less than 7% -- if the DGBAS is making up numbers, it is doing so very conservatively.

DPA then commits what looks like a gross ethical breach:

Wei Duan, former director of the central statistics office, suspected the figure was fabricated to win votes in the upcoming presidential election.

Here Wei Duan is cited as a "former director of the central statistics office." That was in the late 1990s. Wei Duan is actually a KMT stalwart, a former member of the Party's Central Standing Committee from 1999-2000. In other words, the DPA cites him as an 'expert' without revealing that he is a KMT member with high rank. That strikes me as deeply unethical -- and par for the course for this piece.

The DPA then regurgitates the KMT election plank, without any observation that it is, indeed, part of an election platform, using loaded language:

In the 1970s and 1980s, Taiwan used to be one of Asia's Four Small Dragons, but Taiwan's economy has deteriorated due to Taipei's five- decade ban on sea and air links with China, the world's largest production base and consumer market.

The idea that the economy has "deteriorated" is pure KMT bullshit. Economic growth has slowed, only, but it is easy to sustain high growth when the economy is tiny and your patron power, the US, gives you every assistance in exporting to its own economy. As can be seen from the real GDP growth figures above, economic growth is clicking along at rates many nations would envy. Someday I'd like to see a media article that acknowledges that the DPP government is probably the most open to China in the history of the island. The real issue is that incomes are stagnant and prices are rising, and that is caused in part by the exodus of Taiwanese firms to China -- because the DPP is so open, especially compared to Taiwan's previous KMT governments.

The DPA soldiers on in the pro-China cause:

In recent years Taiwan has been further marginalized as foreign countries have signed joint free trade agreements (FTA) or formed free trade blocks to the exclusion of Taiwan for fear of angering China which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province.

Once again, we get how China sees Taiwan, but not how Taiwan sees China. Compare this more professionally done AP article, which adopts a more neutral tone in discussing the same issue, identifies the claim that the figures are bogus as an opposition claim, provides contextualizing information, and reports the claims of others, rather than incorporating them into its own presentation.

Nice work, DPA.

UPDATE: DGBAS says monthly wages are at a seven year high.

Regular monthly salaries of local wage earners in the country's service and industrial sectors averaged NT$36,676 (US$1,134.08) in the first nine months of this year, up 1.73 percent from the year-earlier level, an official said Saturday.

The amount marked a seven-year high, the official with the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said.

Moreover, local wage earners' average regular monthly salary has continued rising for the past six quarters and consistently registered a more-than-1-percent year-on-year growth for the past 16 months in a row, the official said, adding that all these figures indicate a steady increase in their regular average salary.

UPDATE II: Anon adds in the comments below:

Hey Michael, there's a great weekly radio program that does very politically-neutral, very scholarly based explanations of hot economics in Taiwan. This week's program was about the whole South Korea vs Taiwan topic and rising prices.

Here's the link to this week's: mms://play.ccdntech.com/vod09/wma/6200711261910.wma
Here's a link to the archives:


[Taiwan] [DPP] [KMT] [media]

Homelessness in Taiwan

Reuters offers yet another dismal report on the state of Taiwan's economy....

Lack of family or close friends, or shame in confronting them in a society that puts a premium on getting ahead materially, pushes some jobless people outdoors.

"They think if that if they haven't succeeded they can't go home, and some don't want to be a burden on anyone," said Liu Chi-chen, a publicity worker with the Homeless Welfare Foundation. "Today's society is very complex."

Taiwan's unemployment rate has hovered at 4 percent over the past two years, but salaries are stagnating or falling, with the best jobs elusive, as prices of food, rent and transportation go up. Cheap labor from Southeast Asia is standard at construction sites and factories in Taiwan.

Government statistics show that 3,655 homeless people were assisted last year compared to 2,260 five years ago. Many more go it alone or look to charities, aid workers say.

Within the past five years, the number of boxed lunches given away by the charity Homeless Welfare Foundation has soared from just over 9,000 per month to over 29,000 last month.

"In the past few years, the number of homeless people has gone up a lot as the unemployed population gets bigger," said Lu Fang-tsuang who handles Buddhist charity Tzu Chi's homeless relief work in northern Taiwan.

Reuters here makes a signficant deviation from facts reported elsewhere:

Employers have forecast their slowest hiring in three years because of rising global raw material prices and uncertainty over the outcome of Taiwan's 2008 presidential election.

Is hiring slowing? Um....nope. Hiring is on the upswing, as Bloomberg reported:

Manufacturers, led by AU Optronics Corp. and Hewlett- Packard Co., and banks including Standard Chartered Plc are expanding and hiring more workers, boosting household incomes and stoking consumer spending. Faster economic growth provides room for the central bank to raise interest rates next month.

``The cyclical recovery in consumer spending has helped cushion slowing external demand and is the key to our rather upbeat growth assessment for Taiwan this year,'' said Tony Phoo, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Taipei.

In addition to Bloomberg, the pro-KMT China Post -- it is a plank in the KMT platform that the economy sucks and only the KMT can save it -- also reported Taiwan's excellent job numbers, citing the DGBAS:

Taiwan's jobless rate remained unchanged at close to the lowest this year in October as companies hired workers amid signs the economy's expansion is gathering pace.

The rate stayed at 3.89 percent last month from September, seasonally adjusted, the statistics bureau said in Taipei yesterday. That matched the median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Taipei Times has an in-depth look at the strong positive numbers -- projected at 5.46% this year, up from 4.5% predicted earlier this year, driven by booming export growth.

The always excellent Taiwan Review shows that the growing homeless problem is actually an ongoing issue with deep roots going back to the economic changes in the 1990s. Here's what they wrote six years ago, in 2001:

Some factors are unique to the individual, but there are also historical, political, and socioeconomic factors at work," Yang says. According to him, over 90 percent of his charges are men in the forty-to-sixty age group with not much education. Apart from the mentally and physically sick, and victims of domestic violence, there are also some veterans who came to Taiwan in 1949 with the KMT government. Some have no relatives in Taiwan to turn to for support. Others are deserters and therefore have no papers. The consequence is that they may not apply for a veteran's pension or receive care at the various veterans' homes run by the government islandwide.

In recent years, Yang has noticed that a growing number of people with marketable working skills are losing their homes through some traumatic change in circumstances, often the result of an economic downturn. After it became legal to hire laborers from abroad in 1990, most traditional manufacturers assembled work forces drawn from the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, paying them less than Taiwanese would demand. This naturally threw many local people out of work. "The fact that a lot of manufacturers are now going bust or moving to mainland China or Asian countries in search of cheaper overheads only adds frost to the snow," Yang says.

Over the past two years, social workers have also started to find white-collar workers living on the street. Usually they are well educated, and they held managerial or better positions in the company that formerly employed them. "You'll even find people who used to run their own businesses," Chen Ting-hsun says. "They're often difficult to recognize as homeless, because they may still be wearing suits and ties."

Both Yang and Chen predict an increase in the number of homeless people who are victims of drastic social and economic change, as Taiwan develops into a mature industrialized country. Pressures, particularly financial ones, are sapping the system of family ties that used to support people in times of adversity. At present, there are only a handful of sad stories about aged, frail parents being dumped on the street or rummaging through the garbage in search of food, but their number will increase, and with each increase the tale will become a little less shocking, a little less of a spur to make people stop and think about where things are going.

"Times have changed," Chen observes dryly. "Nowadays it's hard enough to support your own immediate family, even with two paychecks, let alone having to take care of your parents. Some old people deliberately chose to become homeless. They know that the law obliges children to take care of their parents, and they don't want to be a burden."

The whole article gives an excellent overview of the history of homeless policy in recent years, and an in-depth look at the homelessness problem. Well worth a read.

[Taiwan]

Op-Ed fun

I opened up my email the other day to discover my friend's nomination for blog of the year, a link to Ma Ying-jeou's blog, and an op-ed in Pacific Times from Gerrit van der Wees of FAPA. The latter relates to the recent exasperations caused by the Dept. of Defense in its visit to China, which I blogged on earlier....

+++++++++

The US Department of Defense’s clumsy gaffes

Normally it is officials of the US State Department who make the blunders when they try to reiterate the unexplainable and fuzzy policies the US holds towards Taiwan. This time it was the Defense Department’s turn to commit the gaffes, and it was the State Department that galloped to Taiwan’s rescue. What happened?

In a couple of reports in preparation for US Defense Secretary Gates’ visit to Beijing, the American Forces Press Service published a couple of articles in which it tried – in vain - to describe US policy.

In an article by Jim Garamone on Nov. 3rd, it described US policy as being based on “a sincere desire to see reunification done in a peaceful manner”, while in another article by the same author on November 4th, the US position was inaccurately described as being “against independence for the island nation.”

On 5 November 2007, the DOD had to issue a statement that the two earlier reports had “inaccurately described” US policy. One would think that in view of the sensitivities of the issue, the DOD would get it straight the first time.

So what is US policy on these issues?

Since 1979, US policy has rested on the expectation that there has to be (not just a “sincere desire”) a peaceful RESOLUTION of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. This is enshrined in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. The word “Reunification” has never been part of the US lexicon, and never should be.

On the issue of “independence”: from 1979 through 1998, the US was totally agnostic: it neither supported nor opposed independence, and it neither supported nor opposed unification. In 1998, President Clinton pronounced his infamous “Three Noes”, which included “no support for independence.”

However, since 1998 US officials have hastened to emphasize that this did not mean that the US “opposed” independence. It merely meant that the US does not – actively – support independence. Indeed, Mr. Clinton later added that a decision on Taiwan’s future should have the expressed consent of the people of Taiwan.

It would be good if the US government could repeat the “expressed consent of the people of Taiwan” statement a bit more often. That would be more in line with the principles of human rights and democracy which the US professes to hold so dear.

+++++++++++

I think it would be great if US policymakers did talk more about the necessity of "consent.' But even better would be if they developed policies for coping with the current mess, which US policy helped make inevitable but nowhere explicitly addresses -- what happens when one of the populations on "both sides of the Strait" doesn't give its consent? In fact, appears likely to never give its consent?

US policymakers will tell you that the "status quo" policy addresses this, but of course, it doesn't. Since the status quo is not concretely defined -- and no sanctions are specified or even mentioned in this policy -- China can violate the Status Quo with impunity, knowing it will suffer no punishment (Taiwan, on the other hand....). Moreover the whole idea of "status quo" envisions a future that will never arrive. Alas, the future arrives anew every minute... Thus, at present, the Status Quo functions as a ritual invocation asking the protection of the gods, made whenever activity occurs in the cross-strait relationship....

At present the US appears to be hoping that Taiwan will strike a deal with China which will enable it to avoid the massive political headache of developing a policy that deals with the future....

++++++++++

Speaking of pro-Taiwan op-eds, the Financial Times also came out with a strong editorial on China's bombast on Tibet and Taiwan....

China has long been sensitive about threats to its territorial integrity, but there is little excuse for its prickliness. Last month Beijing condemned Stephen Harper, the Canadian prime minister, for his “disgusting conduct” in meeting the Dalai Lama and arrogantly demanded that Canada “correct its mistaken conduct”. Mr Harper, Ms Merkel and others have defended their right to meet whom they please; the shame is that Asian nations such as Japan, as well as some Europeans, kowtow to Beijing for commercial advantage. Democracies should speak up for freedom.

The Tibet dispute is not about sovereignty. It is not unusual for democratic prime ministers and presidents to meet opposition leaders from other countries. Europe recognises Tibet as part of China, as does the Dalai Lama. Although condemned as a “splittist” by Beijing, he now calls for autonomy, not independence. He simply stands up for the Buddhist inhabitants of his homeland in the face of human rights abuses by the Chinese state.

Unlike Tibet, Taiwan’s de facto independence from the mainland is an obvious challenge to Chinese sovereignty, but even on this the Chinese leadership is too thin-skinned. Beijing’s refusal to permit a routine US naval visit to Hong Kong this week seems to have been provoked by US plans to help upgrade Taiwan’s anti-missile shield, though no reason was given.

Taiwan needs an anti-missile shield because China has threatened to attack it and has hundreds of missiles stationed for that purpose on the Chinese coast. The Dalai Lama, likewise, needs to represent his people because the Chinese state is oppressing them. Chinese leaders, rather than wondering why foreign presidents meet the Dalai Lama, should tone down their old-fashioned rhetoric and think about meeting him themselves.

Not bad. The US does not "provoke" China by selling weapons to Taiwan -- China chooses to get upset. But stuff like this is good to see. Commentators generally watch Hong Kong to see how Taiwan will go, but a better comparison is Tibet, where China annexed their country, forced the 17 Point Agreement (text, here; discussion, here) on the Tibetans, and then reneged on what they had coerced the Tibetans into accepting. Hong Kong was never independent, but both Taiwan and Tibet have been....

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [F-16] [FAPA]

Daily Links, November 22, 2007 -UPDATED-

Mention My Name in Atlantis: over on Wiki discussion page for the Ma Ying-jeou entry, I drew the following complaint:

This article is extremely biased, likely due to the influence of prominent anti-KMT (Ma's party) bloggers such as Michael Turton (http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/) and Taiwan Matters (http://taiwanmatters.blogspot.com/).

Hey, I'm a "prominent anti-KMT blogger"! And there I was, imagining the only prominence I had was that bulge around my waistline. I think poor Brian there made my day. Meanwhile, let's hand out some recognition to bloggers who are less biased than my poor "Just because the DPP [says] it makes it right" self....

Culture portal opinions: Josambro has an article on Taiwanese who deliberately speak Taiwanese to you when they could be speaking Mandarin, and David Reid of David on Formosa has an article on film. Check out their event list for art events in Taiwan. They are looking more and more promising, and well worth repeat visits.

Mark Wilbur blogs on the speech of Morris Chang, Taiwan Semiconductor CEO, to the American Chamber of Commerce a few days ago, apparently in response to Feiren's posting of off-the-cuff comments made by Chang at a seminar last year, on the very different goals of Taiwanese firms and the local foreign chambers of commerce.

A-gu blogs more on the kind of language that Chen Shui-bian uses, resonating in the South, meeting upturned noses elsewhere...

J Michael Cole strikes again with a great response to Primor's piece on moral nakedness....

Onion-style, Sean breaks the news that Japan plans to hunt pandas for scientific research.

The Wild East writes on an English teacher who advocates Taiwan independence in his classes. Hmmm....

ROC the Boat has been blogging on the long-dreamed of Taiwan-US FTA.

Red A blogs on the rising "China Price."

Sponge Bear blogs on Ma's trip to Japan in the media there.

From the world of I'm Not Making This Up: Eliana Burki and her Funky Alphorn is giving a concert in Taipei.

bent blogs on Asustek and the future of the electronics industry.

ADDED LINK: Global Voices online has an interesting discussion of the relationship between the US-Costa Rica free trade agreement, China, and Costa Rica's switching from Taiwan to China.

MEDIA: The Lonely Planet's China guide is banned (or maybe not)(thanks, Ian) in China. European parliamentarian calls on Taiwan to adopt emissions trading scheme.

[Taiwan]

Economy ticks along at 5%

Bloomberg reports on good news for the incumbents and bad news for the KMT. The latter party is attempting to run on the economy, and a key part of that is attempting to convince the public that the economy is bad. At the moment, though, things are going pretty well as growth might well be topping 5 percent (in 2006 we did 4.6%). The economy still has many problems, but the export sector and reviving consumer demand appear to have plenty of firepower left...

Taiwan's economy probably grew at the fastest annual pace in almost two years as spending by consumers and companies made up for a drop in exports to the U.S.

Gross domestic product expanded 5.12 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would outpace the second quarter's 5.07 percent increase. The report is due at 4:30 p.m. in Taipei today.

Manufacturers, led by AU Optronics Corp. and Hewlett- Packard Co., and banks including Standard Chartered Plc are expanding and hiring more workers, boosting household incomes and stoking consumer spending. Faster economic growth provides room for the central bank to raise interest rates next month.

``The cyclical recovery in consumer spending has helped cushion slowing external demand and is the key to our rather upbeat growth assessment for Taiwan this year,'' said Tony Phoo, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Taipei.

Phoo predicts the central bank will raise the island's benchmark rate to 3.375 percent in December from 3.25 percent.

The World Bank last week boosted its forecast for Taiwan's economic growth this year to 4.6 percent from an April estimate of 4.1 percent. Phoo expects a 4.7 percent expansion in 2007.

Taiwan's Taiex index has climbed 8 percent this year, compared with a 14 percent decline in Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average and a 1.5 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the U.S.

Economic growth in the three months ended September 30 would mark a 17th consecutive quarter of expansion in Taiwan. A reading matching the median forecast would be the strongest since the 6.58 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2005.

The looming recession in the US could curb growth here, but exports to China have boomed, tracking the high growth there (of course it's not 10% annually as the government claims, but if China as a whole is growing 6% or so, as analyses of its electricity consumption and other types of analyses show, that means that the coastal areas contain a population of 300 million or so who are growing at 15% a year...)

The article goes on to explain that companies are taking on extra workers to service orders for the coming quarter, keeping its low umemployment rate -- less than 4%, a rate many countries would kill for -- at a low level.

The numbers are favorable, and the DPP needs to get out there and talk about it, to counter the constant flow of propaganda from the Other Side. If the KMT chooses to run on the economy, let's bury them with it.

[Taiwan] [DPP] [KMT]

Prehistoric Intercourse

Taiwan's origins were a topic in the news this week. First there was an article on the jade (nephrite) trade in SE Asia thousands of years ago...

Taiwan was at the centre of a one of the most extensive sea-based trade networks in the prehistoric world, new research shows.

The network, which traded in Taiwanese jade, has been uncovered after mineral analysis determined the source of jade used in two types of earring.

Lead researcher Hsiao-chun Hung, of the Australian National University in Canberra, says since the 1930s archaeologists have noticed two very specific styles of ancient jade earring common across Southeast Asia.

These are the three-pointed, so-called lingling-o earring, and the double-headed animal ear pendant.

Hung says mineral analysis of a number of these has shown most are made from Taiwanese jade.

There's a couple of articles on that site; go visit. Also up were the results of genetic studies on the local Taiwanese population....

Eighty-five percent of Hoklo and Hakka people have Aboriginal ancestry, according to a study on the DNA of non-Aboriginal ethnic Taiwanese conducted by Mackay Memorial Hospital's transfusion medical research director Mari Lin (林媽利).

Those 85 percent have strains from both plains and mountain Aboriginal tribes, as well as from Fujian and Guangdong and minor traces of ancestry from the Philippines, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian islands, the study found.

Only 1.5 percent of Taiwan's population have full Aboriginal ancestry, the study found.

As an example of the nation's ethnic diversity, Lin cited the example of Taiwan independence activist Peng Ming-min (彭明敏), whose patrilineal DNA is part Aboriginal, while his matrilineal DNA has Hakka and North Asian traces.

Lin said Hoklo and Hakka DNA was diverse. She said the tests showed that more than 90 percent of Hoklo and Hakka have at least some Vietnamese ancestry, specifically from China's southeast coast.

Lin said genealogical analyses had shown Vietnamese are genetically more similar to Southeast Asians than northern Han.

Stuff like this always fascinates... UPDATE: Wulingren left this link to review in Taiwan Review of a new book on the Japanese period below. Looks very interesting.



[Taiwan]

Taiwan News on Referendum/Polling Issue

Taiwan News has a fantastic piece on the Referendum vote, in which 18 county governments run by the KMT have determined to defy the law and separate the legislative vote and the referendum vote.....below they point out that the KMT plans to scatter 50,000 "election monitors" around the voting booths to intimidate voters, and learn who is pro-DPP by seeing whether they vote on the referendum issue (most people who bother to vote will vote positively)...

+++++++++++++++

EDITORIAL
Taiwan News

Stop subversion of secret ballot

The announced intention by the opposition Kuomintang and its 18 city and county mayors to implement a so-called "two-stage" balloting system for the January 12 Legislative Yuan and referendum election despite last Friday's decision by the Central Election Commission for a "single-stage" method may present Taiwan's democracy with a grave challenge.

Under the Central Election Law, the CEC is responsible for deciding policy on election processes and other related matters and the city and county election commissions, typically headed by the mayors or commissioners of such districts, are responsible for implementation.

While the actual layout of voting booths is the responsibility of local election officials, any arrangements cannot violate the process and procedures for voting determined by the CEC.

By a nine to four vote, the CEC resolved Friday to adopt a "single-step" voting format for the January 12 Legislative Yuan and the concurrent holding of two referendums.

Under the system, voters will collect four ballots for constituency and party proportional legislative ballots and two referendums, respectively a
DPP-promoted referendum on the repossession of KMT "ill-gotten" party assets and a KMT-sponsored "anti-corruption" initiative, and cast the ballots into four separate boxes.

However, the KMT has demanded a "two-step" format in which citizens will collect and cast referendum ballots separately after completing voting in the Legislative poll.

This system would be similar to that used in the March 20, 2004 polls in which two "peace referendums" initiated by President Chen Shui-bian were held in tandem with the presidential poll and were invalidated as neither received the necessary 50 percent turnout due to a boycott by the KMT and other pan-blue parties.

It should first be noted that single ballots or collection or single-step use of voting machines is the norm in most democracies and that the principle of the secret ballot, which is enshrined in Article 129 of our own Constitution, is consistently given far higher priority than the question of whether arrangements are made for citizens who refuse to vote.

A case in point is Australia, which requires that all citizens vote as a legal obligation of citizenship and imposes significant fines onrecalcitrants.

The government and the Democratic Progressive Party favor the "single-step" pattern to simplify the voting process for efficiency and to expedite easy, rapid and convenient participation by citizens in voting for both the legislative polls and the referendums.

Another clear intent is to reduce the effectiveness of vote buying or any forms of subsequent intimidation or punishment of voters and block "contract" vote buying by making it more difficult to monitor for whom voters cast their ballots.

Such reasons may not be entirely "disinterested" but the motivations to boost participation and protect universal, equal and secret voting are at least within the bounds of democratic ethics.

Big Blue is watching

On the contrary, the 2-stage process supported by the KMT camp would expose voters who wished to vote in referendums to public view, especially if the polling booths for the referendums were physically separated from the balloting for the legislative races or even put in different buildings.

Indeed, many voters who collected the referendum ballots on March 20, 2000 faced such obstacle courses or were even subject to heckling or even intimidation by pro-KMT voters or "monitors."

The KMT's clear short-term objective is to discourage voters from participating in the "party assets" referendum, even though polls show that an overwhelming majority of citizens, including "pan-blue" and nonpartisan voters, favor the return of its "ill-gotten assets" to the country.

But even more grave is the fact that the combination of "two-stage" voting and plans by the KMT to mobilize over 50,000 "election monitors," enough to assign three to each polling booth, will allow local KMT branches to collect detailed information on just whom in each voting precinct favors the DPP or KMT.

The "two-stage" format's structural exposure of the preferences of each and every voter to public view will undoubtedly undermine the fundamental democratic principle of the secrecy of voting and constitute a massive violation of the basic human and civic rights of all our citizens, no matter what their preferences.

Moreover, the fact that the coming presidential poll may well be the last opportunity for the KMT, at least in its current form, to "win back Taiwan" will leave open the possibility that citizens whose preferences have been so exposed will be vulnerable to all kinds of pressures and intimidation to either switch from "green" to "blue" or not vote at all on March 22.

Moreover, the "two-stage" system and its attendant monitoring will spur the use of "contract" vote buying by providing a simple and direct method for local party organizations to monitor "contract compliance" by observing whether the "bought" voters abide by the tacit referendum boycott.

Given the tight nature of the coming presidential race, the use of intimidation or vote-buying against "green" supporters, could well determine the result of the March 22 poll and allow the KMT to "win back" domination over Taiwan through the most undemocratic of methods.

If the KMT wins the upcoming legislative and presidential elections by trampling on the sacred democratic principle of the secrecy of the ballot box, it is quite possible that Taiwan will never again have free elections.

The KMT camp, led by the Harvard University law school doctorate and former justice minister Ma Ying-jeou, have adopted the attitude that the CEC or the DPP-led Executive Yuan cannot do anything to block their concerted effort to realize "one country, two systems" in our national elections.

We believe that there is absolutely no room for ambiguity on the part of the Taiwan government in defending our hard-won democracy with all the legal and political tools at its disposal against this open conspiracy to subvert the sacred democratic and human right of the secret ballot and thereby compromise our hard-won right of domestic and, quite possibly,national self-determination.

In addition, we urge all Taiwan citizens to consider whether a party that shows such disdain for our fundamental constitutional rights and the integrity of Taiwan's legal system merits an opportunity to impose its undemocratic rule on our 23 million people.

+++++++++++++++

A great editorial.....the DPP needs to scream about the election monitors. And scream and scream. And we need to get the international media INVOLVED.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [Ma Ying-jeou]

Ta-ken Trail Mix

A breakfast vendor in Tanzi.

Saturday morning found myself and Jim Boyden of Sponge Bear gallivanting off to Ta-ken for another hike on the wonderful trails that criss-cross the area (click on any picture to be taken directly to it).

We decided to go up trail two. I didn't see any warnings directed at pudgy balding bloggers....

Like most of the Ta-ken trailheads, on the weekends the area is crowded with vendors.

Selling breakfast....

...like radish cakes...

...and shoes, in case you forgot to bring some.

Fruit vendors are a must.

The trail starts up steeply, rising from about 350m to over 850m, according to the sign at the top.

After a short level area, we started going up.

These absolutely regular stairs were made of concrete. Humping those sacks up there must have been a delight. Climbing them certainly was.

Jim strikes a pose.

The trail was steps and ladders most of the way, and packed. We often had to wait for people to descend before going up. After so many years here, I find the presence of people reassuring, though crowds are obviously not for everyone.

Don't get close!

Deja vu all over again....so there I was, facing another vertical trail in the company of someone more than a foot taller than me.

There would have been some great views toward the town of Chungshingling, but the haze was pretty bad.

"No, Mike, that's not vertical. That's just an optical illusion caused by the darkness and perspective."

At the top, there's always a vendor.

We took the leisurely and elegant trail to be relaxed and refined.

Coming back we took trail 1, which was sealed with yellow tape and marked dangerous. This was an invitation, right?

In many places the ropes had been pulled out of the ground and stairs were missing.

As we descended, we reached a point where the trail simply disappeared. Intrepid hikers, of which there were many on the way up, had cut a new trail along the area where the slope had slid into the valley below.

As we came around the bend, I took this composite of six pictures trying to capture the massive washout.

This vendor displayed the largest pomelos I have ever seen.

What? You didn't think I'd let you get away without a spider, did you?

Overall, trails 1-5 appear to be far more difficult than 6-8 (can't say anything about 9). But the views are excellent, and the climb is stimulating. They make a great weekend outing.

[Taiwan]

Taiwan to be isolated?

As I wandered around RT Mart yesterday observing the vast quantities of chocolate now available even in totally localized grocery chains, I realized that the American pachydermal physique may well be The Shape of Things to Come. It will be good not to be alone... speaking of expansion (and aloneness), the defection of the speaker of the Marshall Islands parliament to the opposition party made news here because of his comments on doing so....

The sudden defection of the Marshall Islands speaker to the opposition ahead of national elections has fuelled speculation in the central Pacific nation about the future of its ties with Taiwan.

Two days ahead of Monday's vote, Speaker Litokwa Tomeing said the Marshall Islands had "wronged" China by recognising Taiwan in 1998 and it was time to "fix this problem by adopting a one-China policy."

The Marshall Islands, with a population of 60,000, is one of just 24 countries that formally recognise Taiwan, which China considers a rebel province awaiting reunification.

China has threatened to invade Taiwan if it declares formal independence.

Tomeing had been the Marshall's parliamentary speaker for eight years since the United Democratic Party (UDP) of President Kessai Note won control of the government from former president and paramount chief Imata Kabua.

However, when he defected a week ago saying the UDP had not lived up to its promises of reform he reduced Note to just a two-vote majority going into Monday's election.

Tomeing's push for a rollback to diplomatic ties with China follows his trip to Beijing last week and a trip by four leading opposition MPs to China last month.

The opposition group included Senator Tony deBrum, the architect of the Marshalls' shift to Taiwan in 1998 when he was finance minister in a previous government.

DeBrum has declined detailed comment about the reasons for his China visit saying only that it was a "fact finding visit" and he would address the issue after the election.

The Marshall Islands business community strongly supports ties with Taiwan in large part because Taiwan funding goes directly to hiring local construction contractors and their workers, circulating money in the economy.

Chinese money at work? Does this case highlight a trend for increasing isolation of Taiwan by China?

I think not. Look at Jinmen and Matsu, as well as the loot in the National Palace Museum. Although Jinmen and Matsu are indisputably Chinese territory and could easily be grabbed by China, China has never taken them. Similarly, the loot in the National Palace Museum is indisputably Chinese and has nothing to do with Taiwan, but Beijing has never demanded that back. Why?

The answer is simple. If Jinmen and Matsu return, then Taiwan has no connection, no overlap, with China at all. Ditto for the National Palace Museum -- it is a concrete reminder that Taiwan and China are supposedly connected. If Taiwan loses those things, it has no connection China -- it is isolated. This simply makes the "annexation vs independence" debate sharper -- while tends=ing to stress the independence of Taiwan. Of course, those islanders in Jinmen and Matsu are 100% KMT. Keeping them in the Taiwan polity brings benefits for the pro-China parties.

Consider Taiwan's diplomatic isolation. During the period of KMT rule, Taiwan shed recognition right and left. During the DPP period, there has been a steady leak, but nothing like the collapse under the KMT. Taiwan is now recognized (as China!) by only 24 countries, all small and impotent. China could, with a combination of cash and muscle, easily push those small countries away from Taiwan. Why doesn't it? Same reason: because as long as someone recognizes the ROC as Taiwan and as China, Taiwan and China are still connected. Once China cuts away all recognition, Taiwan is once again confronted with the stark annexation vs. independence choice, a choice that inevitably favors independence. Hence, the best solution for China is to restrict recognition of Taiwan to a handful of impotent nations, preserving that virtual state, the ROC, whose twilight existence serves the needs of both the pro-democracy and pro-China sides of the cross-strait conflict.....

[Taiwan] [China]

Referendum Conference Informal Report

Adam Menon of Learn Chinese Online, whom I finally met in person a couple of weeks ago, was kind enough to send me his report on the Referendum conference held earlier this month. Posted with permission (sorry it took me so long!)

++++++++++++

Hi Michael,

I attended the Referendum conference yesterday and really enjoyed every moment of it. It was my first time attending such a conference so most of my comments reflect that.

You can see some pictures I took here:
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=19709&l=ffc7b&id=610751756

When I got to the hotel, there was a heavy police presence as you might expect. We had to go through a metal detector to get into the conference room. There were about 10 agents (recognized by their earpieces) spread out in various seats across the room. When the president came in he was flanked by his security entourage who also spread out around the room. Two sat right behind him. The others stood in a row down the side eyeing everyone around the room.

It was interesting that I later spoke to one of the speakers (a Swedish national) who mentioned that most of this "security" was just for show and that if someone really wanted to do harm to the President, he felt it wouldn't be hard to do so.

I was really impressed by the translators. We all had access to earpieces that translated the English to Chinese on one channel and the Chinese to English on the other channel. The English translator had a very clear voice and used very good English even while translating on the fly. What a great skill to have!

The conference itself featured speakers from East Timor (talking about the importance of the referendum there to help them gain independence), Switzerland (who leads the world in national referenda), various professors from Taiwan and in the Academia Sinica. Later sessions featured Lin Chia Lung, Secretary General for the DPP along with some of his colleagues, M. Dane Waters (US), and Boris Voyer (Canada) both from the Initiative and Referendum Institute (IRI). Voyer later mentioned that he also works for the GIO.

The round table at the end was very interesting as the panel featured some interesting questions. One person asked why the GIO doesn't do anything about the foreign media always adding the "China and Taiwan split in 1949 during a civil war) to their articles. Linda Arrigo asked Lin Chia Lung why the DPP didn't accept Yu Shi Kun's version of the Normal Country resolution.

There was a very nice book prepared of all the speakers and their positions including very nice backgrounds on the referenda used in Taiwan and the KMT's role in trying to prevent them, with lots of nice charts and statistics to back the positions.

[Taiwan]

Week of Speeches

It was a week of speeches. Monday I gave a short talk at Fengchia, in the Urban Planning Department. Thursday, I listened to a talk on core competences in teaching, pictured above. The speaker sat for two hours and spoke in a low voice. Nuff said about that presentation, rife with irony, considering it was on teaching skills. Meanwhile Friday I visited Ming Chuan University in Taoyuan, where I spoke to Professor Graeme Bell's class on blogging. I was deeply touched to see veteran blogger Scott Sommers had kindly made the trip out from Taipei just to see me, and prevent any obnoxious outbursts of ego on my part.

Ming Chuan is located in Guishan, just south of Taoyuan city proper.

The campus of Ming Chuan. I got there just at 6, for Dr. Bell had alerted me to me to the photographic possibilities of building EE, perched on a hill overlooking, well, what seemed like the rest of Taiwan.

I can see for miles and miles and miles...

The mountains look mysterious in the early morning sun.

A pan of just the mountains.

Ming Chuan from above.

Taoyuan.

A pan of the entire view.

Same thing, not quite so tilted.

Just the built up area in front of the mountains.

More Taoyuan.

I couldn't get over how beautiful the mountains looked, so I shot them again.

Panned them again, too.

Looking due....south?

The campus, which is quite new, has a couple of interesting looking buildings.

Fountains are a must.

Amazingly, there is a Mexican restaurant right on campus. I can't say as a I like the substitution of ketchup for picante sauce. The coffee also left much to be desired.

Ming Chuan was quite special. When I got to the gate, the guard asked me why I had come. I explained that I was speaking in Dr. Bell's class. This produced a blank look. The guard didn't know who he was -- and I thought to myself: "how many foreigners can there be?" After all, Chaoyang where I teach has only three.

The answer arrived over the course of the next couple of hours, as I watched in astonishment as a veritable United Nations strolled up to the teaching building. It turns out there's an English-language BA program at Ming Chuan and not only are there plenty of foreign profs, there are also what seemed like a few hundred foreign students. Dr. Bell's class was about 85% foreign students -- you know, talkative, opinionated, active, questioning...fantastic students. I was flabbergasted and challenged by their enthusiasm and hard work. It was also a pleasure to meet Dr. Bell, a modest, friendly, and acutely intelligent fellow who can solve NP hard problems in his sleep and not only knows how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, but also what their names are.

I thought the talk went well, and everyone seemed to have fun. Hopefully they all got something out of it, and they'll send me pictures, since I didn't have time to take any.....

[Taiwan]

DPP Foul-ups

The DPP laid several eggs recently...

First there was the heckling affair. There was a spate of articles in the news media, the usual puffery from the pro-China side, on pan-Blue heckling of the DPP leadership. ESWN, always on the anti-democracy side, has compiled a list of reports from the pro-Blue media here.

But of course, what they did is only an issue if you are setting out to make it an issue. The whole point of the pan-Blue coverage of the hecklers was to turn nothing into something, and Chen and Lu played right into their hands by saying nasty things. Chen's remark that there's no cover on the ocean, and people who love China should just swim there, is a good example of Chen appealing to his base by saying things that many Taiwanese think privately but few say out loud. That would be great if Chen were a retired President, or not the campaign Chairman, but..... Chen needs to get into the habit of saying "thank you," to hecklers and moving onto the next topic....it is irrelevant whether they are plants or not (news came out this morning that the heckler known as Charlie is a nutcase who was arrested yesterday for obnoxious behavior). They should simply be ignored.

Last week TVBS reported that China was returning mail stamped with "UN for Taiwan". Since the report came from TBVS, a station famous for making up news, I filed it away, but more credible news sources soon reported the same tale. For the full description, The Foreigner blogged on the UN for Taiwan postal fiasco, as does Taiwan Chronicles with a great post.

Has the UN for Taiwan tactic run its course? Well, it does have the KMT following along with a rival referendum. And it did get plenty of attention for Taiwan, and the negative attention did cause locals to rally round the flag. Ok, it is a popular issue and widely supported among the public at large. But after two months the campaign has grown stale. Time to move on, guys. Next big thing, please. And start talking about the economy. Don't let the KMT own that issue.

The UN for Taiwan campaign also raises another issue that I have complained about often in these pages: the abuse of the law and government by both parties. Everyone has noticed that all government buildings sport the UN for Taiwan banner. Even the train has "UN for Taiwan" in its running advertizements. Since the UN for Taiwan is the private tactic of a particular political party, the DPP is sending a message that the government is simply the spoils of whoever wins, just a combination ATM, advertizing agency, and work program for political hacks. The DPP did that a couple of weeks ago with the Torch Relay event (pics), when I noted:

Observers often note that over in China provincial and local authorities often declare themselves independent of Beijing. The same thing happens here, though not as obviously, because the law is administrative rather than normative, and has no ethical force for those underneath it. Last week the Taipei City government rightly pointed out that the DPP's UN Torch relay was illegal under the law since they hadn't applied for permission (too bad the city didn't take the same attitude toward Shih Ming-te's faux protests). President Chen then challenged the city government to arrest him. It's nice to defy authority....except when you are authority. Then you simply signal that that law is irrelevant if you have power. And that is the wrong signal to be sending in a democracy.

The fact is that good governance tends to make Taiwan independent, while bad governance serves China and the KMT, who both want to see governance fail here. That's why the KMT has been paralyzing the various branches of government, holding up needed legislation, and keeping its criminal servants in key positions in local government. The DPP needs to set a better example...

....as shown by events this weekend. The Central Election Commission (CEC) ruled that the referendum and vote ballots must be handed out together at polling stations. The purpose of this was to prevent the shenanigans that occurred last time around, when the KMT deliberately misled voters about the referendum in areas it controlled, reducing the number of voters who voted for it. Instead, the KMT now has the 18 counties whose governments it controls defying central government authority on the issue...

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) yesterday defended his party's plan to ignore the Central Election Committee's (CEC) ruling on "one-step voting" and instead adopt the "two step" voting system in 18 local cities and counties during the legislative election in January.

"The CEC's decision was merely an administrative order. The 18 city and county governments governed by the pan-blue camp would not violate any laws by adopting the two-step system," Ma said yesterday during a visit in Tainan City.

The CEC on Friday said that ballots for the Jan. 12 legislative election and referendums would be handed out together at the entrance to the polling stations, ending weeks of wrangling between the pan-blue and pan-green camps over the manner in which the ballots should be handed out.

The KMT condemned the CEC decision and vowed to stick to the two-step system.

Ma said the 18 local government heads would exercise their authority and handle the elections their own way to ensure order during the vote.

"The local government heads will be well-prepared to ensure that voting on election day goes unhindered," Ma said.

Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌), meanwhile, confirmed yesterday that the Taipei City Government would also follow the KMT's plan and would start educating Taipei residents about the process.

"The two-step system will prevent disputes over election-related issues. Besides, the arrangement of elections lies within the local government's authority," he said in Taipei yesterday.

The 18 pan-blue local governments signed a joint statement pledging to exercise their authority according to the Local Government Act (地方自治法) and handle the Jan. 12 elections their own way.

Thanks to its defiance of the law over the Torch Relay case and numerous other instances, the DPP government does not own the moral high ground on this one.

[Taiwan] [DPP] [KMT]

US-Taiwan Relations Fun

Yesterday the Taipei Times reported that the Formosa Association for Public Affairs (FAPA), the premier advocacy group for Taiwan in the US, had slammed Steve Young of the officially unofficial US representative body, the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), for his attacks on the UN referendum. Gerrit van Der Wees passed around the text of the letter and press release:

++++++++++++++++

For Immediate Release
Contact Iris Ho @ 202.547.3686
November 15, 2007
FAPA expresses strong disagreement with AIT Director Steve Young;Says that US statements are undermining Taiwan's democracy.

On Wednesday, November 14th 2007, the Formosan Association for Public Affairs -- a Taiwanese-American grassroots organization based in Washington DC -- sent a letter to the Director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Mr. Stephen Young -- expressing strong disagreement with statements he made, criticizing the planned Taiwan referendum on entry in the UN under the name "Taiwan".

In a press conference in Taipei on November 9th 2007, Mr. Young reportedly stated that the referendum, planned to coincide with the presidential elections in March 2008, are "neither necessary nor helpful"and that "there is a price to be paid in mutual trust."

The Association said that the referendum is necessary for
three reasons:

1) in order to let the international community know that the Taiwanese people have no intention of letting themselves be subdued by an authoritarian regime in Beijing;
2) to let the world know that the Taiwanese people want their country to be a full and equal member in the international community, and
3) to counter the PRC's relentless pressure to isolate Taiwan and push it into a corner.

In response to Mr. Young's statement that there is a price to be paid in mutual trust, the Association stated that the price to be paid is "...the fact that US opposition to the referendum is severely undermining international trust in the US government's resolve to stand up for human rights and democracy in the world."

The Association added: "Your statements, and those of other US government officials, are also undermining democracy in our homeland. We find this totally unacceptable."

The Association closed its letter, which was signed by its President C.T. Lee MD, by saying that if the United States is serious about spreading democracy around the world, "...it needs to be supportive of and nurture those countries that have attained democracy through the hard work of their citizens. Taiwan is such a country, and if the US wants to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, it needs to show resolve in support of our young and fragile democracy."

The full text of the letter is given below.

----------------------------------------------------------

Washington DC, November 14th 2007
Mr. Stephen Young
Director, American Institute in Taiwan
7 Lane 134, Hsin Yi Rd. Sec 3
TAIPEI, TAIWAN 106

Dear Mr. Young,

As an organization of American citizens of Taiwanese descent we want to express our strong disagreement with your statements last week about the planned referendum in Taiwan regarding membership in the United Nations. You said that the referendum is "neither necessary nor helpful" and that you think "there is a price to be paid in mutual trust."

Yes, there is a price to be paid, but this price is the fact that US opposition to the referendum is severely undermining international trust in the US government's resolve to stand up for human rights and democracy in the world. Your statements, and those of other US government officials, are also undermining democracy in our homeland. We find this totally unacceptable.

The referendum is necessary in order to let the international community know that the Taiwanese people have no intention of letting themselves be subdued by an authoritarian regime in Beijing. The referendum is necessary to let the world know that the Taiwanese people want their country to be a full and equal member in the international community. The referendum is necessary to counter the PRC's relentless pressure to isolate Taiwan and push it into a corner.

It should be clear to you and your colleagues that Taiwan is not threatening China in any way: the Taiwan government has emphasized time and again that it wants the country to live in peace with all its neighbors, including China. However, as you well know, China is building up its armed forces with the specific aim of attacking Taiwan, and is threatening Taiwan with 980+ missiles.

If the United States is serious about spreading democracy around the world, it needs to be supportive of and nurture those countries that have attained democracy through the hard work of their citizens. Taiwan is such a country, and if the US wants to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, it needs to show resolve in support of our young and fragile democracy. Looking forward to hearing from you,

C.T. Lee MD
President, Formosan Association for Public Affairs
cc.
President George W. Bush
Secretary Condoleezza Rice

++++++++++++++

As I noted earlier, Young's remarks were comparatively mild -- he didn't accuse Taiwan of undermining the status quo, merely saying that it was unnecessary. The US claim, that Taiwan is damaging mutual trust, omits any mention of the role of the US side in undermining that trust. AIT's position places the onus on Taiwan. That sucks. Until the Bush Administration removes its restrictions on high-level visits to Taiwan, especially military contacts, the US will be in the position of undermining US-Taiwan relations.

Germane to this is the Administration's mad refusal to sell F-16s to Taiwan. The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission recently reported to Congress. While it did not make its criticisms clear in the report, privately commission members were unhappy with the Bush Administration's position on the F-16s.

The Bush administration must base its decisions on arms sales on security interests, not politics, leaders of a prestigious commission dealing with US-China relations said on Thursday, in what appeared to be a criticism of the administration's refusal to sell advanced F-16 fighter aircraft to Taiwan.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, in an annual report to Congress, recommended that Congress urge the administration to continue to sell Taipei weapons it needs to counter an attack by the People's Republic of China (PRC).

But the report stopped short of specifically urging the sale of the F-16s.

The chairman and vice chairman of the commission, answering press queries, said the failure to deal with the aircraft issue stemmed from timing and other issues and was not a result of a policy decision.

Vice Chairman Dan Blumenthal, a former senior Pentagon official dealing with China affairs, said: "We did not have enough time to deliberate on it. We discussed Taiwan earlier and the F16 issue was moving faster than we had a chance to catch up with."

However, he indicated that the commission favors the F-16 sale, and was not happy with the administration's decision to block it.

The Bush Administration has also attempted to suppress Taiwan's development of missiles capable of striking China, though it has done little about missiles from China capable of striking Taiwan. Of course, if the Bush Administration were running Taiwan, they'd be developing missiles capable of hitting China too, and probably nukes as well.

The US made this bed and now it is going to have to find a way to lie in it. It pushed Taiwan to democratize -- and the consequences of that move were known to both ROC and US leaders back in the 1960s. Further, as an academic recently pointed out to me in a private email, when Kissinger and Breziniski sold out Taiwan, they made Taiwan independence inevitable. Previous to Kissinger, the US position had openly been that the status of Taiwan was undecided, a position it still quietly holds today (as the recent UN flap demonstrated). But Kissinger essentially sold Taiwan to China, giving the island only two choices: being annexed to the PRC, or becoming independent. It's not entirely a coincidence that the democracy movement here became an independence movement with a big influx of Taiwanese after the US restored links with China under Kissinger.

It is apparent that Bush Administration simply has no idea how to deal with Taiwan and even less of a clue about how to deal with Taiwan as a full-blown formal nation-state in the world community. It's sad that Kissinger sacrificed US strategic flexibility -- yet another RealPolitik fuckup -- but that flexibility is latent in the US position, and needs to be reclaimed.

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [2008 Presidential Election] [F-16] [FAPA]

Daily Links, Nov 17, 2007

Been a while since I did links -- busy on Thursdays and Fridays. Fortunately David still has links on Monday.

Laowiseass says voting for dissidents who got jailed may result in ex-cons with hollow ability running the nation. Pictured on his blog is Annette Lu, degree from Harvard, who is the vice president of Chen Shui-bian, probably Taiwan's leading corporate lawyer before he went into politics.

Popular blogger Fili blogs on Mandarin singers he listens to. Also has a great post with links on Driving in Taiwan.

That's Impossible blogs on the KMT's attack on a talk show in which it shoots itself in the foot.

The Foreigner blogs on the UN for Taiwan postal fiasco. Taiwan Chronicles too with a great post.

Israel sells weaponry to China...which sells it to Israel's enemies. Thanks, guys. From the Foreigner...

Steph on Tea for the Winter Weather.

On Accents from a great blog.

Save the Taiwan Humpback Dolphins has a guide to wind power and carbon saving.

Jeff's Taiwan with a great post on the gold and copper mines in NE Taiwan.

That's impossible has a great post diagramming the internationa media and Taiwan.

Bent with a great post on holding the DPP to a higher standard. In response to this excellent post from The Only Redhead.

Mark Wilbur, in response to a post I wrote, shows the fall of the Taiwan dollar. Read the comments carefully.

Pinyin News on how the Taipei City gov't is screwing the English language.

Andrew C goes to Alishan

.

PICS: Kerim has beautiful shots from a recent visit to India.
MEDIA: Gregory Clark, the former Aussie diplomat who is the Michelle Malkin of China commentators, has a new gem out:

The Han Chinese are supposed to be guilty of creeping genocide in Tibet. But since Beijing allows Tibetans, like other minorities, to have as many children as they want while Han Chinese are restricted to only one child, it seems we need a new definition of genocide.

There's more of that, including the disasters that would ensure if China were a democracy....hard to imagine that people think that in the real world.

[Taiwan]

Chen Chu Wins One

Chen Chu, the DPP Mayor of Kaohsiung, won her appeal that reversed a lower court decision to annul her victory in the Kaohsiung mayoral race.

An appeals court ruled Friday that the mayor of Taiwan's second largest city was elected fairly, reversing the decision of a lower court.

The island's High Court said the razor thin electoral victory of Chen Chu in the southern city of Kaohsiung last December was legal and that she could remain in office.

In June the Kaohsiung District Court had accepted the claim of opponent Huang Jun-ying of the main opposition Nationalists that the vote was unfair, nullifying her election by 1,114 ballots out of a some 770,000 cast.

Huang had said Chen's camp smeared him by presenting a video on the eve of the poll allegedly showing vote-buying on a bus returning from his campaign rally.

In its ruling Friday, the High Court said Chen's allegations of vote-buying by Huang did not force voters to necessarily choose her candidacy over his.

"Chen Chu's campaign did not compel voters to vote one way or the other," the court said.

The ruling is not subject to appeal.

At issue were allegations of vote buying that surface at the end of the campaign. The weird logic of the ruling is in response to the lower court's ruling that originally annulled the election:

Judges decided that accusations Chen's camp made regarding Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英), her main rival, on the eve of the election and on the polling day influenced election results.

The district court stressed in a news release that "Chen's polling-day action of making public a videotape showing a man giving money to passengers on a bus and urging them to vote for Huang could be regarded as a surprise attack against Huang and thus to have made the election unfair."

The night before the election Chen Chu and her supporters found evidence that the Huang camp had been vote buying, and trumpeted it to the public. That was after the election activities were supposed to have ceased, a seeming violation of the law.

According to a report in the Taipei Times about the vote buying, KMT candidate Huang's campaign manager admits that he knew the vote buyer:

Su Wan-chi (蘇萬基), the executive of the KMT mayoral candidate's campaign team, admitted that he had asked Yang, who also is from Yunlin, to help mobilize support for the candidate. But did Su give Yang NT$60,000 to pay voters to participate in rallies? If he did not, then where did the money come from?

Lin Ping-feng (林平峰), chairman of the Yunlin Association, admitted to prosecutors that the association rented 10 buses for Huang's election-eve rally, but that it did not include the two buses Yang had organized for his mobilization activities.

However, Su, a former chairman of the Yunlin Association, had already admitted that he asked Yang to mobilize supporters for the rally, and he managed to fax the map of the rally to Ku.

I have a long revew of vote buying as a tactic in Taiwan here.

Did the vote buying influence the election? The numbers, as always, won't support Blue fantasies. As I wrote last year:

In Kaohsiung, things were just the opposite. Chen's Chu's narrow victory was almost certainly the result of the presence of the TSU candidate in the race. In 2002 the DPP won by more than 25,000 votes, 386K to 361K, with no TSU or PFP candidates in the race. In 2006, the KMT gained 17K votes to reach 378K -- which looks like a huge gain, until one recalls that in 1998 they spiked at 383K. Had they merely reached their 1998 levels, they would have won handily.

By the same contrast, the DPP's 379K vote was 7K less than 2002. One might argue that the DPP has fallen off, except that the TSU took 6,500 votes. The 2006 TSU + DPP total is 386K votes. Hence Chen Chu's showing was not some statistical blip or DPP failure, but the direct result of the TSU poaching votes from the DPP; the number of Green voters remains unchanged. Meanwhile the KMT gain was due entirely to success in getting out the vote, not to voters switching parties due to some putative disappointment with the DPP. Again, had the KMT reached its 1998 level, it would have won.

In other words, had the TSU not had a candidate in the race, Chen Chu would have won by a much bigger margin. The Courts split evenly on this one, but how screwed up is the justice system? News came out today that Lee Tai-an, sentence to 18 years for helping to murder his brother's Vietnamese wife, got out on bail prior to his third and final hearing. Lee became a folk hero in the Blue community after getting busted for setting up an elaborate conspiracy to murder for insurance money, a conspiracy that also threatened the innocent passengers on the trains Lee helped derail. Claiming persecution by the justice system, he actually showed up as a celebrity at Shih Ming-te's anti-Chen protest in Taipei, one of the many excesses that helped discredit those faux protests. Lee got out on -- hold your breath -- NT$20,000 in bail. That's not an error, folks. $NT20K. I think we're looking at yet another in the long line of KMT-loving criminals who will mysteriously manage to vanish from Taiwan and turn up in China...

[Taiwan] [DPP] [KMT] [Kaohsiung] [Chen Chu]

Making Taichung More Foreigner Friendly

A friend in a local urban planning department passed me this for further discussion.

+++++++++++++++

Session on Friendly City: The Way

Making Taichung A Barriers-Free City for All International Guests

An Introductory Remark by Prof. XXX
Department of Urban Planning
____ University
10/23/2004
Friendly as Barriers-Free

For years, the United Nations (UN) has been working on protection and promotion of basic Human Rights. Rights to shelter, food, freedom, peace and more are fundamental to human survival and social enhancement. Though not an official member of the UN, Taiwan society was not immune from such global concerns and efforts. In fact, Taiwan not only has excelled quite well in certain categories, but also active contributors to such worldly efforts. In line with the enhancement of human rights, we are here today to address the issue of how to make Taichung becoming a barriers-free city for all international guests and visitors. Friendly-City Taichung means that all disabled foreign guests shall not be handicapped by our ignorance of their basic rights to have a happy life here.

In the past decades, daily needs of those people with disability (correctable or uncorrectable) have received transformative attentions in many societies, especially in the area of retrofitting existing environment to be more inclusive of all users regardless of physical and mental conditions. Ramps and reserved park lots and elevators are some of the obvious examples of such corrective actions.

However, the existing disability framework has yet recognized the needs of foreigners in a foreign land as culturally and phonetically disabled. As a result, complaints about confusing street names and inattentive medical emergency have gone unheard. For most of international guests and visitors, Taiwan is still a place full of living barriers. Can Taichung do something from past lessons of modifying facilities for the Handicapped? I believe we should and we can, for the betterment of our foreign residents.

1. Taichung City Foreigners’ Assembly
First, establishment of a Taichung City Foreigners’ Assembly (TC-FA). Ten years ago, a number of Japanese cities began to recognize the needs of foreign residents and decide to do some fixing-up of the legal system. One thing they proposed was the establishment of a formal Assembly made of foreign residents. Membership of the FA (around 20-25) is drawn from the foreigners’ community proportionally for a two-year term. The FA would meet four times a year (seasonally and two-days) to hear and decide on recommendations to be sent to the Mayor and in turn to the local Legislative Assembly for consideration and further action. There are roughly 15,000 foreign guests (with 73 nationalities) living in Taichung City, it would be interesting to see a TC-FA in action in the coming future.

2. Barriers-free Taichung
Second, smarter utilization of number and symbol for a barrier-free Taichung. It is often mistaken that English-lization is the only route to a barriers-free environment for all foreign guests. In my opinion, if we can realize the potential of number and symbol, maybe we can spend less and accomplish more. Why so? First of all, numerical symbol and signage in itself is more internationally recognizable than English. Second, it minimizes (or neutralize) the bias toward people from non-English-speaking places. Finally, it is more cost-effective. In order to have a good start, I recommend that street naming system of the city shall be rearranged immediately.

Conclusion
In the last ten years, Taiwan society has witnessed the growth of foreigners, especially in the areas of laborers and marriage. In 1991, the total population of foreigners was a little more than 30,000. Today, there are more than 400,000 foreign residents in every corners of Taiwan. In Central Taiwan (Taichung city and county, Nantou and Changhwa counties) alone, there are more than 74,000 (or 1.6%) people with foreign nationalities. Excluding the laborer category, Taichung City registers the highest number of foreigners (close to 6,000). Among them, people from the United States and Japan are the top two groups.

It is well expected that the growth rate of foreign population is going to rise in the coming future. The issue of barriers-free environment can no longer be ignored by the politics and the general public. Due to a lack of formal mechanism, Taichung’s foreigners’ community has received too little attention. By recognizing their rights to be heard and their disability to be pampered as early as possible, I believe that Taichung City can be the most friendly city in Asia in the days ahead. It is never too late to get started. Let’s act now.

[Taiwan]

Business Leader Calls for Peace Law

Business leader Robert Tsao put out advertizements in three newspapers the other day, calling for a peace agreement with China. The China Post reports:

"If Taiwan adopts a cross-strait peaceful co-existence law, relations between the two sides of the Strait can begin to develop in the right direction," said Tsao, who calls himself a "small ordinary citizen" in the front-page advertisement.

The new law alone will provide opportunities for both sides of the Taian Strait to trust and help each other, Tsao said. It will end the dispute over "one China" versus "one country on each side of the Strait," he added.

There will be no more disputes over what is known as the "1992 Consensus" or the National Unification Guidelines, Tsao went on. "I believe," he pointed out, "all the unnecessary disputes will end and the problem confronting the two sides of the Strait will be truly solved."

How to go about it? he asks. First and foremost, the DPP has to give up any plan to conduct a referendum on independence for Taiwan, Tsao said.

"Then it should be declared that the Republic of China does not rule out the possibility of unification with the mainland (of China) with the proviso that a unification referendum has to be passed," he stressed.

China should request that Taiwan hold the unification referendum.

Before the unification referendum is voted on, Tsao proposed, China has to clearly specify all conditions under which unification would take place, the purpose being to let the people of Taiwan know exactly how autonomous they will be, and make the right decision.

The silliness of this proposal is obvious -- Taiwan can pass any laws it likes and take any action it pleases, but in the end only Beijing can choose to end its threats toward Taiwan. President Chen pointed this out in his usual forceful manner:

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) criticized United Microelectronics Corp chairman Robert Tsao's (曹興誠) "peaceful coexistence legislation" proposal yesterday, calling it a "Taiwan surrender act" and another version of China's "Anti-Secession" Law.

"Everything he suggested is hypocritical if Tsao does not ask China to abandon its military intimidation of Taiwan, dismantle its missiles targeting Taiwan and relinquish the `one China' principle," Chen said.

The President rightly points out that far too many people who ask Taiwan to change its behavior, fail to ask China to right its course as well. KMT Presidential hopeful Ma Ying-jeou also dismissed Tsao:

Ma Ying-jeou said he appreciated Tsao's proposal. "But," he said, the Kuomintang has already set up a platform for dialogue.

"If I were elected," Ma said, "I would have a peace agreement signed on one condition that China removes all the missiles targeting Taiwan. I'll follow up with negotiations to usher in peace across the Strait."

Frank Hsieh said he might act on the Tsao initiative, but ruled out the possibility of jointly proposing a peaceful co-existence law with his Kuomintang adversary.

Hsieh always acts to sound reasonable in contrast to President Chen's more forceful rhetorical position. As I've continually pointed out, it is best to see the mechanism that Chen and Hsieh have constructed:

START:
CHEN MILITANT
HSIEH MODERATE
MEDIA REPORTS HSIEH-CHEN SPLIT
HSIEH AND CHEN DENY SPLIT
RESET TO START

...as entirely a bit of political theatre which the DPP is using to make Hsieh look moderate. The Taipei Times ran an interesting editorial on cross-strait investment that fingered an interesting fact about Hsieh's cross-strait policy: its vagueness. The whole editorial is worth reading, but I found this comment especially provoking. The author is discussing Hsieh's concept of managing China investments on a case by case basis:

A closer look shows that its cleverness lies in the dynamic management of investment projects on a case-by-case basis, by which a committee or a small team will be formed to examine and decide on individual investment projects in China.

In other words, this mechanism would achieve both the goals of "active management" and "effective opening."

Still, some parts of Hsieh's proposal require clarifications.

How does his proposed committee, or small team, differ from the Ministry of Economic Affairs' Investment Commission and how should their functions be separated?

When you think back to other Taiwan management mechanisms, such as the environmental impact assessment, which has no coercive mechanism and which has never blocked an investment, to the ease with which Taiwanese businesses circumvent other legal roadblocks, how effective can "case by case" management be? The answer is obvious, and Hsieh is likely aware of it, as are his listeners. What Hsieh is proposing is a fig leaf, and that is the way business will understand it.

UPDATE: Speaking of peace, the US announces a proposal for a large missile tech sale to Taiwan...

UPDATE II: Speaking of China's effect on the local political economy, it recently announced that it will talk to Taiwan about resuming exports of sand to Taiwan, one of the materials that helps fuel Taiwan's construction-based political economy and keep local factions healthy, wealthy, and wise-guy filled.

[Taiwan] [Chen Shui-bian] [KMT] [DPP] [Ma Ying-jeou]

Simon Tisdall Scores! And Me Too

Want to take a break from the usual pro-Bejing stuff in the foreign media? Simon Tisdall of the Guardian has a good piece on Taiwan-China-US relations that manages to avoid many of the pitfalls (still reproduces the "renegade province" formulation, though, a phrase that is an invention of the western media) that plague foreign reporting on Taiwan. It manages to be informed, not make egregious errors, not incorporate Beijing propaganda, not say that Chen "provokes" China, and include comments from Taiwanese officials. Few pieces in the international media are as good. Thanks, Simon! Here it is:

While the US frequently encourages Taiwan to buy new and second-hand US weaponry to be better able to defend itself, it has criticised Taipei's indigenous development of the long-range "Hsiung Feng' cruise missile, which it (and China) views as an offensive weapon. Chen was recently obliged to pledge to "consult" Washington before firing the missiles. US fears about fuelling cross-strait tensions, stoked by Beijing, also appear to have delayed Taiwan's purchase of 66 state-of-the-art, US-made F16 fighters.

Taiwanese officials say China has become adept at manipulating the Bush administration. "They are under pressure from China. China is very clever. If they want to do something on Taiwan, they call the White House and tell the Americans that Taiwan is rocking the boat. Then the US government puts pressure on us," a senior official said.

"We tell the Americans they should deal directly with us, they should take our national interest into consideration. But of course we are afraid about the growing cooperation between the US and China. It is a problem for us. It is definitely squeezing Taiwan."

Political factors are also straining Taipei-Washington ties as Taiwan moves towards next year's contentious legislative and presidential elections, in January and March respectively. Chen, who is standing down after two terms, is determined to hold a national referendum before he goes on changing the country's official name - Republic of China - to the more familiar Taiwan. The plan is then to apply for UN membership (it is currently excluded) under the new name - thereby raising "global awareness" of the Taiwan issue.

Poll watchers say the referendum proposal, opposed by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) but backed the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) and 3 million signatures, is likely to pass as matters stand now. That prospect infuriates China, which rightly sees the vote as a ploy to emphasise Taiwan's separateness, and alarms the risk-averse US.

Mayhap Tisdall can flip this piece to his colleague Jonathon Watts in Beijing, whose articles are generally disastrous regurgitations of what Beijing is thinking.

++++++++++

Meanwhile Highway 11, the East Coast's leading expat magazine, graciously consented to run my piece on drowning. The regular editors must have been out at the bar, I guess, when the editorial decision was made. Also in this month's issue are a collection of articles held to a much higher standard, including a piece on hostels in Hualien, and an article on the craft fair there. Show your support for Highway 11 by clipping one of the many ads and taking it to a local restaurant next time you're in Hualien.

[Taiwan]

Chasing the Sun in Anping

Out to Anping harbor in Tainan on a gorgeous November afternoon in southern Taiwan with John from the Real Taiwan and his wife and kid.

First stop was this old traffic tower for the fishing port, now enveloped by art. It did improve the look a bit.

The tower's door is unlocked, so we slipped under the art and headed up for a look. Unfortunately the art blocks the view....

John clambered up to the roof for a better view....

Out in the harbor the fisherman worked in the afternoon sun.

John captures me sliding nimbly under the art.

Welcome to Danger Wharf.

A pan of the harbor area. The observation tower to the extreme left sits atop the well-known historical site, the Anping Fort, while a modern Matsu statue overlooks the harbor on the right.

We hopped in the car and drove around to the other side of the harbor to have a look at the statues there. First stop was the stylized chicken.

John talks music with Zack, a former longtime resident of my own Taichung, and the aptly-named Divine, who were sunning themselves in front of the chicken statue.

Across the harbor, dozens of small fish boats rest under the protection of Church and Temple.

Frameworks for oyster cultivation?

A large tour craft.

Next we visited the Matsu statue overlooking the harbor. Here a fighter jet trains above the Goddess.

John's daughter motors across the grass.

Local youth lounges in front of the statue.

No matter where you are, there's a butterfly.

Leaving his wife and daughter to enjoy the open space, John and I went to look at the bust of Matsu. Because we both love a really big bust.

[Taiwan]

Robin Winkler Allegedly Assaulted During Environmental Protest - UPDATED-

Last week Robin Winkler, whose energy and commitment to The Beautiful Isle I deeply admire, was allegedly punched during a protest by a local elected official. Taiwan Headlines has the call:

Environmental groups protested outside the Environmental Protection Administration on Monday morning to condemn the agency for siding with the Formosa Plastics Group on a proposed steel plant that they fear would take a heavy toll on the environment.

They also vowed not to let "gangster politicians" rule the country after an activist was assaulted by an elected official at a meeting held to review the plant's environmental impact.

Protesters held placards claiming "the EPA is an affiliate of the Formosa Plastics Group" on the agency's building and held up banners reading "people are feeling insecure due to black gold politics" and "don't allow gangster politicians to rule the country."

The protesters argued that the agency should not shelter the Formosa Plastics Group, which wants to build a 7.5-million-ton capacity steel plant in Yunlin County.

The investment project is still being assessed by the committee.

"We know that the EPA must have felt huge pressure in dealing with the steel plant project. But the government should never side with a conglomerate whose carbon dioxide emissions account for one-fourth of all of the country's emissions," said Green Party Taiwan Secretary-General Pan Han-sheng.

The protest was held after lawyer and environmental activist Robin Winkler was assaulted by Yunlin County Council Speaker Su Chin-huang during an EPA meeting at its offices last Wednesday to review the project.

Winkler, also a former member of the Environmental Impact Assessment Review Committee, participated in Monday's rally.

"I'm feeling better physically, but I'm feeling bad mentally," Winkler said. "The government didn't show any concern for environmentalists who were beaten by gangster politicians. It seems to say that it is OK to beat environmentalists without having to be held accountable.

"Now most environmentalists live in fear, and we don't dare walk in stairwells alone," Winkler said.

He urged media workers not to report the story as a war between himself and Su - who has a criminal record that includes corruption, sexual assault and crimes against personal liberties - but to focus instead on the relationship between the EPA and the Formosa Plastics Group.

There's further discussion in Chinese on the Wild at Heart blog:

朋友警告我要小心，因為我現在是環保署眼中的麻煩人物，當他們無法安撫你、收編你，他們就會開始設計你。其實，與會的地方民代和漁民，都是為了雲林好，所有的意見都應該是對事不對人。但環保署「維持秩序」的方式就是，只顧到「會議順利進行」，並且往他們期待的方向進行討論，只要在「會議室」之外的，像茶水間這樣的地方，就與其毫不相干。「有證人你自己找出來」、「警察不能作證」，施暴者被保護在會議室內，不讓當事人當面對質，而任其無聲無息的離去。

Video of the event is online at Hemidemi. More reporting in Chinese, with a photograph of the massive bruise on Robin. Of interest is the long lag between the event and its appearance in the English media; Feiren and Maddog were both emailing me about it days ago. Why the delay? Yu, BTW, denies the assault.

The Formosa Steel plant, said to cost $4.1 billion, is going in at the mouth of a river in Yunlin as part of a huge, malign development project that represents the ultimate in Old Economy, Taiwan. The Sousa Dolphin blog has more information on the issues with the EPA's handling of the case.

After hearing the reports from the developer and its government sponsor, the Industrial Development Bureau, one of the commissioners requested that the representative of an environmental group be allowed to speak. The EPA chief of the EIA section, Tsai Ling-yi, then prompted the representative of a local township to speak out in favor of the project.

After a closed door discussion by the commissioners and other government agency representatives it was announced that the committee would “respect” the decision of the previous committee and send the case to the plenary commission with the recommendation that it go into second phase evaluation.

The EPA’s lack of objectivity in handling the case has been cited numerous times and following the meeting this morning it was learned that the EPA plans to include this case in the plenary meeting which is scheduled to be held on the afternoon of 1 October 2007. This sudden burst of “efficiency” comes despite numerous requests from commissioners (sixth and seventh terms) that commissioners be given materials regarding all cases that are to be discussed and decided upon seven days in advance of the meeting. There has also been no public announcement of the meeting or its agenda as of close of business 26 September 2007.

The associated petrochemical plant, a naptha cracker, got in trouble in August for overusing water but the EPA rescinded the fines over the strong protests of legislators and other government organizations. I blogged previously on the EPA, environmental impact assessment, and government-business collusion at a conference earlier this year where Winkler gave an extensive presentation on the process of approval for the projects....

Similarly, Winkler had reviewed 4 projects relating to the Mailiao Development projects, the eighth naptha cracker (for plastics manufacturing), the Formosa Plastics plant, a steel plant [the one in question above -- MT], and a port. The Dolphins had come up as an issue, since they live off the west coast where the project was being carried out. Studies by the Council of Agriculture showed that the dolphins came up only to the sandbar south of the port -- meaning that they would not have to be considered by the project. But, as Winkler pointed out, other work, very easily found, showed that Sousa was known north of the sandbar and north of the project itself. That information somehow didn't appear in the reports appended to the EIA, an omission which Winkler described as "bordering on criminal."

The post is long and the description of the problems involved in assessment of large projects like this one is, I think, worth a read (I don't normally plug myself but I'll make an exception here).

UPDATE: Wild at Heart has a translation of a great editorial on the insanity of building more steel plants in Taiwan:

The FPG steel mill project threatens nearly two-thirds of Taiwan's clam hatcheries, the important aquaculture business, and Taiwan’s Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins. This is part of the price we will pay.

Taiwan's petrochemical, steel, concrete, and paper industries have consumed more than 30% of Taiwan's energy production in recent years. Yet these industries have accounted for less that five percent of Taiwan's real GDP during the same period. In 2005, they accounted for just 2.49 percent of GDP. Taiwan is the world's biggest producer of steel per square kilometer. Can Taiwan, a tiny island nation that is virtually 100 percent dependent on imported energy, afford to continue developing this extravagantly polluting industry with its profligate energy requirements given the heavy environmental burden it already bears? Should we let FPG, which produces one third of Taiwan's carbon emissions, go on lining its pockets, destroying the environment, and preying on the weakest among us?

[Taiwan]

Taiwan in the World Web

Global Politician has a couple of articles from an Indian writer on Taiwan....here...:

However, moving on the path of development, many among Taiwanese get doubtful, anxious and fearful of their future. The stand taken by the mighty Mainland China is the reason of that. The reality is that this situation makes the whole Asia-Pacific Region anxious as far as the question of stability, peace and development in the region is concerned. Doubtfulness, anxiety and fearfulness are the biggest hurdles on the pathway of development. It is often that these elements are also troublesome for their origin source. The situation has changed world over now. This is the time for accommodation, interdependence and mutual co-operation. As such the liberal and wise Chinese rulers should think about Taiwan on the basis of goodwill and harmony. Harmony and goodwill are two such elements, which can ease any solution. The present President of Taiwan, Mr. Chen, too, has admitted the same view. On the other hand, stubbornness and an intention of using power cannot accord any last-long solution; it cannot make friendly relations and cannot gather any cooperation. This is the eternal rule, an ultimate reality. Experiencing this reality, the dictator like Adolf Hitler after occupying Poland, in 1943, admitted, “One cannot rule by force alone. Even in the land of other’s some one needs the local support.” Therefore, in the present situation there should be a positive approach from the People’s Republic of China on the question of Taiwan. Only such an approach would be beneficial not only for China but for the rest of the Asia-Pacific Region. This would also be essential for the People’s Republic of China to maintain its credibility and reputation in international affairs.....

...and also here, by the same writer, from September of this year:

The law passed by China's National People's Congress in March, 2005, under which its army has been legally empowered to attack Taiwan if it declares independence, has created a very complicated, serious and bewildering situation. On the one hand this law has highly intensified the tension between China and Taiwan; on the other hand it has filled the regional and international atmosphere with anxiety.

The dispute between China and Taiwan is older than half a century. The whole world is aware of the issue under dispute. But it is also clear that both China and Taiwan have their own separate cultural identities and believe in two separate political systems. In the economic world also, China and Taiwan have separate identities and separate roles to play. Therefore, if either of the two parties takes a unilateral step in haste, it can lead to extremely dangerous consequences. For this reason, it is of utmost necessity that both parties have enough patience and understanding to solve the problem through peaceful means.

Taiwan, with a population of 23 million, has been under a democratic system for many decades. The Taiwanese are dedicated to democracy. Taiwan has presented an ideal to the world, through its endeavours to strengthen its democratic institutions. Taiwan is economically strong, which is evident from the fact that its foreign exchange reserves are equivalent to US$230 billion. Its economic prosperity can also be understood by the fact that it ranks 15th as a contributor to world trade. Besides, Taiwanese goods have continuously earned world praise for their high quality. Taiwan has its own identity with rich cultural values. In spite of being small in area, it is not weak; it has been prosperous in all fields and this prosperity has deep roots. Therefore, it would be childish for anyone to dream of bringing it under its rule easily, through an armed attack or military operation.....

It's always interesting to read through non-Western, non-Chinese views of Taiwan and its situation, just to see what kinds of understandings others reach. (hat tip to KUL, many thanks).

Meanwhile over at Foreign Policy in Focus the debate between Beijing shill Yu Bin and Ian Williams went into round two:

In the latest Strategic Dialogue from Foreign Policy In Focus, Yu Bin and Ian Williams go head to head on the question of Taiwan's increasingly vocal bid for statehood.

In his essay Support Taiwan's Democracy, Ian Williams argues that the United States should not abandon Taiwan at its time of need. "The lack of U.S. diplomatic support for Taipei lessens the chance of a negotiated solution," writes Williams. "It weakens the Taiwanese hand while encouraging Chinese obstinacy."

Yu Bin disagrees. In America's Rogue Ally, he argues that Taiwan's uncompromising push for independence is destabilizing the region. "Although Taiwan is still America's de facto ally in Asia," he writes, "the chemistry between the Bush administration and Chen Shui-bian is rapidly heading south."

In the second round, Ian Williams responds by emphasizing Taiwan's Right to a State . Yu Bin's answer: Making Democracy Safe for the World.

I think it is great that FPIF obtained the services of a total Beijing shill like Yu Bin so that everyone can plainly see the empty values and stilted thinking of those who serve the other side.

[Taiwan]

Joseph Wu at Brookings

Sorry about the blogging hiatus, tied down with presentations for strategic management theory class and numbing, overwhelming, dysfunctional fatigue, but Brookings dropped me a line to say that it has the transcript from the recent speech of Joseph Wu, Taiwan's unofficial ambassador to the US, online now. The talk is moderated by the always-sensible Richard Bush, and reviews the march to democracy here.

[Taiwan]

US Congressman Introduce Resolution to Support UN for Taiwan

Media outlets are reporting the introduction of a resolution backed by 19 US legislators to support Taiwan into the UN (Taipei Times).

No date has been fixed for debate on the bill in the US legislature.

"It's unclear when it will come before the committee, we have no mark-ups scheduled for the next month," said Lynne Weil, spokeswoman for House foreign affairs committee chairman Tom Lantos.

Chen's Democratic Progressive Party is pushing for the controversial vote to be held alongside the presidential elections on March 22, 2008.

But on Friday the de facto US envoy to Taiwan, Stephen Young, said a referendum was "not necessary" or "helpful" and called on Taiwan to adopt a "careful and moderate approach" in relations with China.

"I have regular dialogues with President Chen and the other players in Taiwan on the political side," Young, director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), told reporters.

"I think it is clear to say neither President Chen nor anybody else here in Taiwan should be confused by the effective opposition to the referendum and the reasons."

US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said in August Washington opposed any such referendum because it would be a step to declaring full independence.

US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas J. Christensen also recently urged the leadership in Taipei to "anticipate potential Chinese red lines and reactions and avoid unnecessary and unproductive provocations."

Local Taiwan newspapers have reported that Washington has decided to postpone the sale of dozens of F-16 C/D fighters to Taipei in an effort to show its displeasure.

The resolution was introduced by Scott Garret (R) of New Jersey. It's just a resolution, and is essentially meaningless, as the Bush Administration has already shown time and again that it cares not what Congress does. It's always nice to show support, though.

Tom Christensen, the State Department official mentioned in the article above, was recently identified in a private emailing from someone in the know as extremely knowledgeable on US-China relations but a strong supporter of the refusal to sell Taiwan F-16s, and of the US attacks on Taiwan's referendum plan. Christensen apparently believes that Taiwan should not "provoke" China. Since China determines whether it has been provoked, positions like Christensen's simply make US policy hostage to Chinese initiative. Worse still, they invite war since they makes the US look indifferent to Taiwan's fate, and weak and easily manipulated.

MEDIA NOTES: The AFP article offers a good example of how pro-China biases are introduced into news articles through the use of routine formulations that are either slanted ("China considers Taiwan part of its territory" but what does Taiwan think?) or erroneous ("China and Taiwan split in 1949"), as well as with loaded languages and telling omissions. Note the opening frame of the story:

Nineteen US lawmakers, nearly all of them from President George W. Bush's Republican party, have introduced a bill in the House of Representatives backing UN membership for Taiwan, a move that could anger China.

Imagine this opening frame:

Nineteen US lawmakers, nearly all of them from President George W. Bush's Republican party, have introduced a bill in the House of Representatives backing UN membership for Taiwan, a move that shows support for Taiwan's vibrant democracy.

The idea of democracy is never referred to in the article, except indirectly in the mention of elections. Instead, the referendum is framed negatively throughout the entire article, using loaded language:

The Bush administration has tried to discourage Chen's effort, which has has touched a raw nerve with China, which considers it a provocative step towards independence.

Do nations have raw nerves?

Taiwan, under its official name the Republic of China, lost its UN seat to China in 1971. Its efforts to rejoin using its official title have been repeatedly blocked by Beijing, which sees the island as part of its territory.

No mention of Taiwan's position on the issue, of course. This is followed by more negative framing:

During a recent Asia-Pacific summit in Sydney, Chinese President Hu Jintao told Bush that Taiwan's referendum plan had propelled the cross-strait situation into a "possibly dangerous period."

The President of China is cited, but nothing contextualizes this. Chinese military and political threats to Taiwan are not mentioned, and Hu is treated as if he were not a man who had killed to get and maintain his power. There is no reason that the AFP report could not have included this passage in the resolution reported in the Taipei Times....

"Taiwan has dramatically improved its record on human rights and routinely holds fair and free elections in a multiparty system, as evidenced by Taiwan's second [sic] democratic presidential election in 2000 and 2004, in which Mr Chen Shui-bian [陳水扁] was elected as President," the resolution said.

...except that it would have spoiled the effectiveness of all that negative language about the horrible referendum, of course, especially in contrast to the regime run by Hu Jintao.

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Democracy] [UN] [DPP] [Taiwan Independence] [US Foreign Policy]

Dangers of Taiwan election? Safe Sex?

Several people pointed me to this article in the Jakarta Post entitled "The perennial danger of a general election in Taiwan." It's the usual farrago of pro-China, pro-KMT nonsense. I replied to it two days ago, and suddenly the link now goes to an article about condoms and safe sex. Fortunately Google Cache still has a copy. Here is it for your enjoyment...

+++++++++++++

The perennial danger of a general election in Taiwan

Jusuf Wanandi, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Come 2008 it will be election time again in Taiwan. In January there will be a general election to elect new members of parliament, and in March a presidential election to elect a new president.

The presidential election in Taiwan is always critical for the peace and stability of the East Asian region, and one can almost expect that in the coming election there might yet be another drama, as Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) may resort to dangerous tactics in order to win.

During the campaigning period of the previous presidential election there was an attempt on Chen Shui-bian's life which he miraculously escaped. There was no clear story about how he managed to do so. Chen not only survived the attempt on his life, he also won the close elections, in large part due to that political gimmick. That showed how mature democracy is in Taiwan, in addition to the regular chair-throwing episodes in its parliament.

For the coming election, Chen has come up with another political gimmick, i.e. a referendum on Taiwan's membership of the U.N., not as the Republic of China, or the ROC as it used to be, but as the Republic of Taiwan. Bringing up the issue coincides with the presidential election in March 2008.

Obviously it is designed to win the election, because through a referendum the DPP's supporters and members, as well as pro-independence sympathizers, will be lured to vote for the DPP candidate if they want to see Taiwan admitted into the UN.

The Kuomintang (KMT) and its presidential candidate, Ma Jin-jeou, are simply caught in this DPP referendum initiative as they can not outright reject the referendum appeal lest they be accused of being against Taiwan's admission to the UN. To counter that, the KMT has proposed another referendum on Taiwan's UN membership under the Republic of China. It is an effort to split the vote to prevent the DPP from getting half plus one of the 16.8 million votes needed to win the referendum.

The DPP supposedly holds four million votes from their members and supporters, and still needs another four millions plus from swing voters to win. With the counter referendum initiative of the KMT, it will be harder for the DPP to win the referendum.

However, to put it in a regional perspective, what is so important about a democratic and innocuous act such as a referendum that it can destabilize peace and stability in the region?

It is important, and anyone who is concerned about peace, stability and development in East Asia, especially the ASEAN countries and also other parts of the world, should not condone or support a DPP leadership that is so irresponsible and obsessed by short-sighted personal or group interests just to win elections and stay in power by whatever means. This reckless political gimmick will not only impact on the across the straits population, but also seriously endanger peace, stability and development in East Asia.

When the DPP is playing around with referendum initiative, it in fact has crossed the red line of the status quo as has been accepted by China, the U.S. and the international community.

It might seem democratic from the outside to have a referendum, but if it is going to create instability in East Asia and possible cross-straits conflict then there is something wrong with it. The DPP should embrace other positive means available such as negotiations based on common interest and principles. The People's Republic of China, U.S. and ASEAN countries would consider Chen Shui-bian's move to be changing the status quo and opening a dangerous avenue if pursued unilaterally.

It is above all a political gimmick to win one presidential election, and probably to pursue changing of the constitution and of the status quo. The attempt to become a UN member is a mere political statement, as it is obvious that it will never become a reality, all things considered.

In this respect, through the 17th Party Congress last October, the Chinese leadership has reacted with restraint and responsibility. It has promised to use soft power in its relations with Taiwan as long as the red line of de jure independence is not crossed by the DPP. It also reiterated the four-point principles of President Hu Jintao, which primarily constitute a peaceful resolution to the cross-straits problem.

There are more reasons than one why ASEAN countries should not remain quiet and indifferent to Chen Shui-bian's irresponsible gimmick, and they must make it clear that any attempt to change unilaterally the status quo in cross-straits relations must not be condoned. It is of ultimate importance to keep peace, stability and development in East Asia, which is not only in the interest of the region but also of the world at large.

The writer is vice chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.

+++++++++++++

It's the usual KMT line -- which I pointed out in my response, citing the pre-election polls that showed the race close with Chen ahead (to refute the propaganda about the arranged assassination) -- and I added some text pointing out that China's drive to annex Taiwan stems from the same source that also led it to slyly attempt to claim the Natunas Islands, which are Indonesian, back in the 1990s......

[Taiwan]

Judging Another Storytelling Contest

Enjoying a moment in a local tea shop with friends Malv and Jean.

Saturday morning I headed out to Tsao Hu Elementary in Dali to act as a judge in an English storytelling contest. Stories were offered in English, Chinese, and Minnan (Taiwanese). The contestants were all elementary school students with ages ranging from 9-12, I think.

The school, fairly typical of local elementary schools.

The judges study the rules before the contest begins.

I was pleased to find an acquaintance, Bill, a long-time teacher and resident of the area, all-around cool guy, who was also judging.

Bill brought a textbook from 1951 that he had found in an abandoned house.

Social engineering with a vengeance.

The timeless irrelevance of textbooks...... Looking through my daughter's textbook, I tried to imagine how many times I've said "jack o'lantern" in my life. I think, in fact, the only times I have said it involved teaching it to kids here.....

Here the textbook developers teach students what they should do before coming to school. Thing Number 4, on the next page, was putting the textbooks in your satchel.

Students await their turn.

In the halls and on the balconies, parents drilled and redrilled their students, resulting in the unnatural intonation and bizarre "Tai Chi Storytelling" movements that every foreigner here is familiar with.

Under the watchful eye of the Father of the Country, and the name of the patron organization of the contest, a foundation with the name "Taiwan Provincial...," a teacher speaks on What You Should Do When Giving A Speech, right down to every last error. So many local speech-givers have yet to discover that brevity is the soul of wit. Prior to her interminable speech, I gave a short talk in Chinese on trying to be more creative, made everyone laugh, and then sat down after like three minutes. I thought it went pretty well, grammar errors and all. Far too many of the students used old fairytales, which I pointed out, not only puts the judges to sleep, but makes it easier to spot errors -- since we already know the story.....

The audience listens attentively to a speaker.

What? Is the foreigner taking our picture....?

[Taiwan]

What Can Taiwan Really Learn from Korea.

It's fashionable to hold up South Korea as an example to Taiwan. The European Chamber of Commerce in Taipei, clearly living in an alternate reality, became the latest follower of that trend when it announced that the reason that Taiwan has not done as well as Korea has is because it isn't open to China like Korea is.

The European Chamber of Commerce in Taipei has held up Korea as a shining example against Taiwan’s failure to improve trade relations with China and, as a result, attract foreign investment. The ECCT said Korea overcame the 1997 financial crisis and soared ahead of Taiwan by taking advantage of China’s predicted economic boom and growth. The Korean government has removed obstacles to trade with China by operating direct flights between the two countries and lifting bans on imports and exports.

ECCT chairman Ralf Scheller criticized Taiwan for failing to improve the business environment, open up the market and ease regulations. As a result, he said, it became the worst performer among Asia’s four leading economies in terms of national income and the number of visiting tourists. “We are not surprised by the result as no progress was made on priority issues we've raised in the past,” he said. The occasion was the publication by the chamber of a blue book on investment in Taiwan and 10 recommendations to the next Taiwanese president that included the normalization of cross-strait trade and deregulation of the financial and service industries.

Well, let's see. Korean direct investment in China is less than half of Taiwan's, and that is only the reported cases for the latter. In terms of GDP Korea's investment in China is miniscule, like 3-4%; for Taiwan it falls somewhere between one-third and one-half of GDP. In 2004, when Taiwanese investment in China was measured in the tens of billions of US$, total Korean investment didn't even reach $10 billion. As of September 2006, Korea's awesome investment totals had skyrocketed all the way to $13.8 billion, or about what the average taishang spends on a year for all three of his wives in Shanghai. Taiwanese companies have flooded into China, but clearly Korea has kept its industries at home. The results are patently obvious.

The full oddity of this must be savored: Korea's policy is to export to China using Korea as a base but sending some production to China -- keeping the major firms at home. Korea has, by all accounts, prospered more than Taiwan in doing so -- by ECCT Chairman Scheller's own claim. This is precisely the strategy that the DPP wants to follow -- keep the jewels in Taiwan. Obviously Chairman Scheller is very confused about what the source of Korea's growth is, thinking it must lie in direct flights. Does anyone really think at this late date that if we have direct links to China, that Taiwan's economic growth will suddenly spike?

Chairman Scheller ought to pay attention to another fact: Korea, like Taiwan, limits the flow of Chinese goods into Korea. At present, the two nations are discussing an FTA, but many Korean makers fear the impact of China-based MNCs on their domestic businesses. Thus, for many years Korea has limited imports of things from China in various ways (outside of manufactured goods made by Korea firms there). The article I linked to above also notes that China has scared Korean makers by how fast its firms are climbing the technological curve.

In other words, Korea has prospered by following the very policy the DPP advocates -- limiting China's impact on the Korean economy, limiting imports from China, protecting national industries, and limiting investment in China. Nevertheless, both the US and European Chamber of Commerce claim that, when the DPP does this, it must be folly, but when Korea does this, it is an example for Taiwan to follow.

How's that again?

Never mind that Scheller never mentions that it is longstanding Chinese policy to hollow out Taiwan's economy as a prelude to annexing the island. Taiwan's security is simply not an issue for the Chambers of Commerce here, since they will continue to make money whether democracy activists in Taiwan own the presidency or are carted off to Chinese jails. By contrast, China, needless to say, has no current, open desire to annex Korea.

Over at Taiwan Matters! Feiren put all of this into perspective with a nice post on Ma Ying-jeou's 1970s economic thinking:

What's more interesting is the profound disjunction between this unrealistic objective and the proposed means of achieving it. Remember that Ma's main policy proposals are allowing direct transportation links with China and removing the 40% investment cap. Just how is that going to get us back to the golden era?

China is not going to agree to the non-existent 1992 Hong Kong consensus and Ma will not have the political capital to accept the One China Principle without putting it to a vote. Even if he can, direct links with China mean more globalization and therefore less control over the domestic economy than we have now.

In all likelihood, what we will get is a lifting of the 40% investment cap. And everyone can see I'm sure how allowing what remain of Taiwan's industrial base to relocate to China will get us back to the good old days when the omniscient great man could control prices.

The great experiment of creating investment worth 1/3 of Taiwan's GDP in China has now been conducted since at least the mid-1990s and despite all this openness, Taiwan's economy has not boomed. I have no idea why anyone would imagine that after sending $100 billion dollars worth of manufacturing to China with modest positive economic effect for Taiwan, sending Taiwan's remaining industry there will cause Taiwan's economy to grow robustly. That is like arguing that if a double amputee became a quadruple amputee, he'd be able to run again.....

UPDATE: in the comments below Patrick Cowsill asks why I didn't address Scheller's remarks on tourism, which he apparently felt were quite insightful.

On raw numbers China, South Korea, and Japan all beat Taiwan, of course. But it isn't difficult to shoot down Scheller, because absolute numbers rarely mean much. Consider: Japan, with a total population of 8 or 9 times Taiwan's attracts less than three times as many tourists, like 8 million to Taiwan's 3.75 million (Japan is currently pursuing a policy to push tourism from 6 million in '04 all the way to 10 million). China's 120 million tourist arrivals dwarf most nations -- we can't compete with that -- but it is still equivalent to less than 10% of the nation's population. As for South Korea, it is 6.35 million this year (here) , or twice that of Taiwan, though its population is much larger than Taiwan's. In other words, on a per capita basis, Taiwan is already the most successful foreign tourist attractor in the area. This is even more amazing when you consider that all three of those nations offer a far great array of cultural and natural attractions than Taiwan does. Really, we're not doing too badly here.

[Taiwan] [China] [East Asia] [Korea] [Japan]

Waldron Says US Intimidated By China

Arthur Waldron, writing in the blog of the conservative rag Commentary, all but accuses the Bush Administration of cowardly kowtowing to Beijing:

Though there’s been little notice of it in the press, the Bush administration appears to have made an enormous change in its Taiwan policy of the last three decades, abandoning the careful hedging that has long characterized it, and instead lining up with Beijing to force the island nation to agree to the mainland’s terms. The reason appears to be that harsh Chinese military threats intimidated Washington.

......

Taiwan is already a nation state in every respect but certain Chinese claims. The U.S., moreover, has never recognized any Chinese sovereignty over the island. But when Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met Chinese General Cao Gangchuan yesterday, he got a dose of saber-rattling. The general stated menacingly that “the Chinese government will act in accordance with its anti-secession law to take any necessary actions for unification of the country.” That is to say: China will go to war.

President Bush appeared frightened as well. According to the American Forces Press Service, “President [George W.] Bush has said the United States is against independence for the island nation.” Make no mistake: these are fundamental changes in the American position. Worse, they confirm to Beijing that she can intimidate the United States. Washington undoubtedly sees this change as wise and expedient, given China’s growing power. What Washington misses are the longer term implications. To name but one, the security of Japan, our most important ally in the region, depends upon Taiwan’s continued independence. A strong stance, and a flat “no” to Chinese demands would, I suspect, have been the better road to peace.

Waldron is a longtime friend of the island. Speaking of right-wing commentary, the John Birch society also comments on Gates' visit to China.

UPDATE: Yesterday I noted the controversy over the Pentagon's bizarre terming of the UN referendum an "independence referendum" and calling Taiwan an "island nation" in the same document. The US has now issued the usual "clarifications" and "revisions."

[Taiwan]

The Hillary Clinton Solution

The KMT has a pretty serious presidential dilemma: its candidate for the March election, Ma Ying-jeou, is clearly the inferior one. What's the solution? The Hillary Clinton approach....

Last week the Taipei Times wrote on the recent spat between Chen and Ma, this the latest scenelet in the long-running tactic of the DPP to portray Ma as weak. Chen said:

Ma should stop pretending that the consensus exists, Chen said, before criticizing the KMT for canceling a plan to delete the consensus from an internal document over pressure from deep-blue supporters.

Chen called on Ma to "have balls and be brave," adding that otherwise he would not be able to resist Chinese military threats if elected president.

Chen also said that Ma lacks a political ideology of his own.

Ma opposed the lifting of martial law, the abolition of Article 100 of the Criminal Code and was in favor of indirect presidential elections at a time when activists were pushing for presidential elections by popular vote, Chen said.

Veteran political blogger A-gu had the transation of thrust and riposte from the pro-KMT Chinese-language paper The China Times:

扁馬交鋒，陳水扁總統四日在台南市火力全開，大談當總統要有ＬＰ、要有Guts，不要碰到壓力就退縮，還抨擊馬英九一路走來永遠是慢半拍、站錯邊。扁要馬不要再做「中國夢」，中國國民黨也應該把「中國」兩個字拿掉。
In the latest salvo in the war of words between [President] Chen Shui-bian and Ma ying-jeou, A-bian pulled all the stops in Tainan city today and during a speech said that a president needed balls and guts, that he could not retreat as soon as he met resistance, and attacked Ma for always beeing a step behind and standing on the wrong side. A-bian wants Ma not to keep dreaming the "China dream," and believes the Chinese Nationalist Party should remove "China" from their name.

馬英九辦公室回嗆，陳總統想當「炸彈人」，不顧形象口出惡言，要炸掉自己也炸掉別人，民眾不會上當。
Ma Ying-jeou's office shot back, saying President Chen wishes to be a
suicide bomber, casually uses despicable language and wants to kill himself
along with others, something the people will not accept.

Since Ma is widely perceived as weak -- typically, when I discuss politics with locals that is the one criticism of Ma that even his supporters agree with -- the DPP's approach is probably a wise one.

Most interesting is the KMT's constant attacks on Chen Shui-bian. Like Hillary for the Republicans, Chen engergizes the KMT base in a way that Hsieh does not. By keeping the focus on Chen, the KMT hopes to keep the Blue base stimulated.

[Taiwan] [Chen Shui-bian] [KMT] [DPP] [Ma Ying-jeou]

Recent Taiwan Sightings in the Media -UPDATED-

UPDATED II: I'm moving this piece to the top. Foreign Policy in Focus has absolute dreck by a pro-China "scholar" who actually has a teaching post in the US. Stop by and leave some good blog love for this loser:

The pluralistic setting in Taiwan guarantees that the island’s politics will be complicated. The current race for greater international recognition is also being fueled by several other factors. One is the DPP’s accelerated effort to desinify the island, which divides population and fuels hostility with the mainland. It remains to be seen how the dilution of the island’s Chinese culture will gain any tangible results for Taiwan. The island may change its name, as Michael Jackson did his face. But it cannot sail away from the Mainland.

There's quite a few paragraphs of this garbage -- note the crack about Michael Jackson, which is hard to read as anything other than racist..... UPDATE III: FPIF DID NOT take my comments, and the comment function seems to be off. That's what happens when you run propaganda instead of scholarship, guys. UPDATE IV: Nope, I'm wrong, apparently it is a system problem. Also, remember that this is part of a debate with the other side represented here.

++++++++++

Haaretz has a great editorial on Taiwan and the UN this week:

And Israel? It has no choice but to go with the flow, as they say in Jerusalem. At least this is what Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni did during her visit to Beijing last week, when she praised the "shared values" of China and Israel. Some in Taipei wondered exactly what the minister was referring to - values like democracy, human rights and freedom of speech? The insult to the Taiwanese is particularly harsh in light of their identification with Israel: two small and effervescent "real democracies" engaged in their own security-existential troubles, exposed to threats from a huge external enemy and dependent on American protection and aid. Some call Taiwan "the Israel of the Pacific" and "the David of the Far East."

Chen is not naive. He knows his initiative will fail. He knows the "regional Goliath" is also a "global Goliath" and that "might makes right" turns the wheels of international diplomacy. His role boils down to showing the world its moral nakedness.

Rock on, Haaretz! Taiwan Journal, whose new issue is out, notes that National Geographic says Taiwan is Asia's Best Kept Travel secret:

The National Geographic Traveler, a popular travel magazine in the United States, published a special report to introduce Taiwan's diverse sights and cultural features in its November/December 2007 issue. In the 13-page article, the NGT's senior editor Jayne Wise and chief researcher Marilyn Terrell wrote about their voyage to Taiwan and their visits to various parts of the island.

Titled "You have won a trip to ... Taiwan!," the report pointed out that the two from the United States traveled halfway around the world. When Wise and Terrell arrived, they discovered Taiwan and called the island "Asia's best-kept secret," according to the article.

The duo, who had never been to Asia before, made their trip to Taiwan in November 2004 after Wise won two free round-trip air tickets to Taiwan in a lucky drawing in February of the same year. The NGT dispatched its photographer and contributing editor Justin Guariglia to Taiwan in May 2005 to take photos, which cover seven full pages in the story.

UDATE: a friend in the know points out that the "lucky drawing" has the GIO's fingerprints all over it. Conservative Richard Halloran reviews the US One China Policy -- Time for Change?

Perhaps it is time for the Bush administration to fashion a policy of a) strategic clarity, in which the U.S. would set out explicitly its objectives in the confrontation between China and Taiwan, and b) tactical ambiguity, in which the U.S. would declare that it would respond to threats to the peace in a political, economic and military manner of its own choosing and timing.

The United States would dump the "one-China policy" in favor of asserting that the ultimate resolution of the Taiwan question would be governed by self-determination. Whatever the new policy would be labeled, it would insist that the people of Taiwan be allowed to decide whether they want to be independent or join China.

Halloran pointed the way to this long speech by Alan Romberg,

When I told my friend and colleague, Professor Steven Goldstein, Director of the Fairbank Center's Taiwan Studies Workshop, that I had chosen the topic The U.S. "One China" Policy: Time for a Change?", he asked if I had gone over to the "dark side." Though he knew the answer, his rhetorical question reflected the fact that, at least in some of the circles he and I travel in there is a nascent, and perhaps more than nascent, debate about the relevance of the "one China" policy today. Calls for change come from both sides- on the one hand, from those who say the United States should "face reality," as well as live up to its ideals, and support the independence of democratic Taiwan; and, on the other hand, from those who favor open U.S. support, not just for peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues, but for peaceful reunification as the only way to avoid an eventual crisis, indeed an eventual war.

That Americans coming at this issue from such polar opposite positions should see such fundamental problems with the policy suggests to me that the policy's essential nuance, its "art," if you will, and its value, are being lost and that for this reason alone it merits attention.

Enjoy!

[Taiwan]

Abandoned Tainan

Time for another day trip. Fresh from Strategic Management Theory class, where presenters put 250 words on a single Powerpoint slide and then read them out loud, I decided that what was needed was a few hours on a motorcycle with Johnny Z from The Real Taiwan. Otherwise I was going to be just another murder-suicide statistic....

John took me to the wreckage of a former military village, now slated for development as upscale housing.

Squatters lived in the few buildings still left partly intact.

Outside in the streets all was quiet.

Her former home? Contemplating land development?

What? Where's master's house?

Like a bombed out city.

Nearby homeless people lived in the park.

A window of opportunity, if you're into development. Or recycling.

In some of the small shops nearby people still lived and worked...

New apartment buildings dominate the area.

Is it bad luck if it just sits there...?

Kingdom of the Butterflies.

After that depressing experience, John took me over to another former military community, where the high-ranking officers once lived.

Here walls enclosed large spaces filled with buildings and the leftovers of people's lives.

There's a ladder deep down in there...

Most of the yards were overrun with former garden plants...

A well? Outhouse? Swimming pool?

The neighborhood was empty, save for seniors on motorcycles looking for things to salvage.

A park area near a market.

Another military village, also going under the wrecking ball.

Scavengers pick at the bones of the past.

John grabs a shot.

As we imagined the photographic possibilities -- the place cried out for a nude model or two -- if anyone feels like volunteering for nude modeling, let me know -- Air Force jets practiced formation flying overhead.

Treasures in every pile of trash.

Who once lived here?

Once these were shops and homes.

Because abandoned buildings just weren't depressing enough, John drove me over to a local graveyard.

Many of the tombs had old photographs, done on tile and inserted into the concrete.

I panned one of the nearby graveyards.

As we drove along, whistling past the graveyard, we encountered a goatherd and his herd of goats, which apparently numbered in the millions.

He waited for an opportune moment, then shooed them across the road to a cemetery on the other side, where plenty of grass stood to be eaten.

Here the banks of a small stream were lined with graves as far as the eye could see.

Overhead wingman and flight leader practiced their skills.

I panned the area just for fun.

[Taiwan] [Tainan]

Taiwan Seeks Clarification of US Claims on UN Referendum, Status

The media are reporting a strange emanation from the US Defense Department, whose internal contradictions are a delight to behold. Wish I could get my hands on the entire document, but it doesn't seem to be on the DoD news site. Apparently a delegation headed by DoD chief Robert Gates is in Beijing, and said stuff that will require much "clarification"... CNA describes:

Taiwan's representative office in Washington has been asked to approach the U.S. Department of Defense for clarification of a statement released by Pentagon officials in Beijing Sunday that likened a U.N. bid referendum to be held in Taiwan next year to an "independence referendum, " Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) officials said Monday.

Officials from the representative office in Washington have been asked to contact the Pentagon to find out why the U.S. military authorities issued a news release in Beijing in which they labeled the U.N. bid referendum proposed by the Democratic Progressive Party administration to seek Taiwan's entry into the U.N. under the name Taiwan as an "independence referendum" and why they flatly proclaimed that President George W. Bush is opposed to independence of that "island nation" referring to Taiwan, said MOFA deputy spokeswoman Yeh Fei-pi.

Yeh pointed out that no U.S. administration agency has ever used terms like "independence referendum" and "island nation" to refer to Taiwan during communications with Taiwan.

Another article adds:

'The Foreign Ministry has taken note of such a statement and has asked its representative office in the US to approach Pentagon for clarification and ask it why was such a misunderstanding,' said Phoebe Yeh, acting spokeswoman of the ministry.

She was referring to a press statement released by Pentagon on a two-day Beijing visit from Sunday by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, during which the Defense Department said the Gate's delegation 'expects the Chinese to bring up Taiwan - especially with the independence referendum on the ballot soon.'

LOL. "the island nation" rubs shoulders with "independence referendum."

[Taiwan] [media] [US] [China]

Tripping Around Taipei

It was that kind of weekend, hip deep in Taipei. First, an early morning dash into the city with my family and a couple of exchange students from my university who wanted to go play in the big city. Next, the gathering at the Shannon, where we heard from the nephew of the Dalai Lama. After that, the DPP UN Torch Relay gathering in front of the Presidential Palace. Then, the Muddy Basin Ramblers' CD Release Party, attended by all the best people, and some bloggers too. Finally, the next day Michael Fahey took me "hiking."

First stop on Saturday morning was the Shannon Meet Up for the presentation of Kendroop Thondrup, a parliamentarian in the Tibetan government in exile, and the nephew of the Dalai Lama. His father, the Dalai Lama's older brother, married the daughter (sister?) of an influential KMT general, and he himself married one of Lee Teng-hui's most important lieutenants. In his own life one can see one facet of the myriad relations between Taiwan and Tibet.

Thondup spoke at length about the situation in Nepal -- in perfect English, on-message, smooth, good-humored, and gentlemanly. Urbane. The discussion touched on many topics -- beginning with the KMT's own interference in the Tibetan camps in the 1950s and 1960s. There the Party sought to suppress independence while at the same time encourage opposition to the Communists. The vehicle for this is the Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission (MATC), still extant, though much reduced under the current administration.

Affairs took a turn for the better, according to Mr. Thondup, when the Dalai Lama came to Taiwan to rapturous acclaim in 1997. Chen Shui-bian, then the mayor of Taipei, attempted to get a meeting with the DL but was rebuffed by the KMT government, so he wrote a letter inviting His Holiness back to Taipei. In 2001, when Chen was President, this was accepted, opening up a thaw in Taiwan-Tibet relations. Chen started the Taiwan-Tibet Foundation to get around the problem of the MATC's reactionary views on Tibet issues.

Thondup also spoke of the famous railway into Tibet from China. While western reports have focused on the influx of Chinese into Tibet, Thondup pointed out that another key purpose of the railway is to extract Tibet's rich mineral wealth, a symbol of China' colonial attitude toward Tibet. He also mentioned China' reneging on the 17 point agreement between the two sides, and the result guerrilla war, supported by both Taiwan and the US CIA, that eventually ended in failure. While China's treatment of Hong Kong certainly provides hints to its plans for Formosa, it is the treatment of Tibet that shows the real goal of China. As we listened raptly, Thondup regaled us with personal anecdotes of his experiences in negotiating with Beijing, including official anger at his marriage to a protege of Lee Teng-hui. I could not help feeling, however, that at bottom Thondup, who expressed impatience with the Gandhian nonviolence path embraced by the Dalai Lama, felt it was a dead end. He mentioned that the younger generation in Tibet has grown impatient, while outside, they are drifting away from their heritage, drawn by the promises of television and global consumer society. Thondup emphasized, however, that if asked, every Tibetan would say that he wanted only what the Dalai Lama wanted for him. That, folks, is being on-message.

Michael Fahey remarked later that Thondup and other Tibetans had good luck when they fled to India, since they were able to learn to communicate effectively in English, something that has escaped our brethren here in Taiwan. Indeed, Thondup's urbanity and wide experience presented an object lesson for Taiwanese seeking to raise Taiwan's profile. (Darren's commentary and some great pics of the attendees)

After the meeting I sat around chatting and then Darren and I headed over to the Presidential Palace to wait for the Torch to arrive. Here vendors setting up for the UN Torch Relay rally in Taipei, so that passersby, through acts of consumerism, can participate in something greater than themselves (wonderful pics from Darren Melrose).

More and more good stuff is appearing in translation.

When we arrived set up had hardly begun.

Plainclothes policemen, probably cadet recruits, formed up before dispersing to their crowd control tasks.

TV cameras atop a nearby building. We watched ourselves on the wide screens set up by the stage.

The sign says it all.

As we waited for about two hours, busload after busload of DPP supporters appeared, mostly older people, from all over Taiwan.

The crowd was predominantly male and over 50. Darren observed after an hour of shooting that he had lots and lots of pictures of old Taiwanese guys.

Another contingent of supporters arrives....

At every rally there is always a vehicle like this. Shortly after I took this picture a truckload of KMT supporters showed up in a large red vehicle and shouted things at the crowd. Some yelled back, and one person threw a water bottle. Whatever you saw on TV, the reality was a lot less...

Nothing like being a sea of people who support the same cause you do. Unfortunately the Torch was late and I wanted to head out for food and music at....

...the next stop, a smaller love-fest over at Huashan Cultural Park for the Muddy Basin Ramblers' CD release. (Craig Ferguson's great pics)(Mark Wilbur's report)(Darren Melrose's pictures). Lots of familiar faces from the expat community, plus a great many people I hadn't met in person before. Blogs represented included The Taipei Kid, Wulingren, Battlepanda, Darren in Taiwan, Doubting to Shuo, CFImages, The Only Redhead in Taiwan, Poagao, Patrick Cowsill, and Prince Roy.

Eli Alberts of Radio Taiwan International, with Mark Wilbur in the background.

Darren, who proved to be excellent and informative company for a long day of talking and shooting pictures.

Mark Wilbur, stable, kind, and sensible.

Angelica Oung, ace reporter for the Taipei Times (with cup), who broke my heart by not introducing me to the gorgeous young woman sitting next to her.

Eli and Michael Fahey trade thoughts.

Robert Maguire, aka the Only Redhead in Taiwan.

The Muddy Basin Ramblers.

The crowd enjoys the show. The Ramblers were really, really great, though the venue was not exactly ideal for the kind of music they do.

Next morning it was off to Sanshia for some hiking with Michael Fahey, one of the brightest, funniest, most insightful people I know, and his friend Peter, both just back from bicycling in Yunnan. I suppose I should have known better than to go hiking with people who can ride a bike at 4,000 meters.

My idea of hiking includes ground that is more or less level. Not Michael. Our hike was entirely vertical. While Peter and Michael ran up, Reinhold Messner chasing Sir Edmund Hillary, I lagged far behind, sprawling over the rocks on all fours like John Candy trying to mate with a Texas Longhorn.

So now you know: if Michael Fahey invites you hiking, bring pitons.

Though most of the trail was enclosed by trees and bamboo, occasional breaks offered rich views.

Sanshia, which has a couple of well-known temples.

Peter atop Everest.

On Monday, as if it were all a dream, I found myself back in the classroom, where my students greeted my lectures with their usual enthusiasm.

[Taiwan]

A few Harsh Truths, and from Hille

Sometimes when life gives you want you want, you get it from the most unexpected directions. For quite some time I've been complaining that Kathrin Hille of the Financial Times has an unfortunate bias -- intentional or otherwise -- in favor of the KMT. I've also been bitching that there has been no mention at all in the foreign media of how Ma is a product of the KMT party murder-n-loot machine of the 50s-80s, and how the allegations of student spying and his service to the dictator and mass murderer Chiang Ching-kuo have also gone AWOL in the foreign media.

No longer. Dated Nov 2,2007. Byline: Kathrin Hille:

In sharp contrast to Frank Hsieh, his rival from the ruling Democratic Progressive party, and others who began their political life as dissidents and human rights lawyers, the KMT candidate owes his political career to the Chiang dynasty.

While studying law at Harvard, Mr Ma was one of the editors of a rightwing Chinese language publication his critics claim was an instrument to report on government critics. On his return to Taipei, he soon started working as a presidential aide.

The link between [dead gangster] Chen [Ch-li] and the KMT has not escaped the DPP. "If . . . you let such a party rule again, what a disaster! They killed in Taiwan, they killed in China," Mr Hsieh said during a recent election campaign appearance.

President Chen Shui-bian has said the government should probe the KMT's past practice of having Taiwanese students abroad spy on fellow students.

Chang Chun-hsiung, premier in the DPP government, has also called on prosecutors to re-open investigations of other unsolved 1980s murder cases believed to be linked to the KMT.

Not only does this article explicitly link Ma to the culture of political killings, it also discusses the KMT's links to organized crime. You don't often see stuff like this in a major foreign media publication. Some good blog love flowing out to Kathrin Hille this day. Thanks, Ms. Hille, you made my week.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [Ma Ying-jeou]

Jobs in Taipei

A friend in California passed me this list of jobs in Taipei from Oriented.Com:

+++++++++++++

Design Director for Pilotfish - Pilotfish is a fast-growing industrial design and product development studio based in Munich and Taipei. We are an international team of user interface and industrial designers, mechanical engineers and marketing experts from all around the globe. With our specialisation... (posted on 11/01/2007)

View all Post a job Back to top

Account Manager for CIT Group (Taiwan) Ltd - CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT), a leading commercial and consumer finance company, provides clients with financing and leasing products and advisory services. Founded in 1908, CIT has more than $67 billion in assets under management and possesses the financial resources, ind... (posted on 10/31/2007)

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Network Security Engineer for M.Tech Products Pte Ltd. - We are a leading regional IT security solutions distributor with a comprehensive suite of best-of-breed i-security solutions and services. We are the authorised distributor for major i-security products such as firewalls, IDS and authentication devices. Our businesses cu... (posted on 10/23/2007)

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Country Marketing Manager for Google - About: Google's innovative search technologies connect millions of people around the world with information every day. Google today is a top web property in all major global markets. Google's targeted advertising program, which is the largest and fastest growing in th... (posted on 10/12/2007)

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Account Manager / Account Supervisor for GolinHarris - GolinHarris, part of The Interpublic Group of Companies (NYSE: IPG), is ranked as one of the top 10 public relations agencies in the world, with more than 30 offices and 450 professionals in major media, business, and government capitals around the world. We are p...

[Taiwan]

Some people get it

A reader sent me this link to an editorial in the local El Paso paper. Clear, direct, and right on point.

There's an obsession driving the leadership of mainland China that eclipses even preparations for the Olympics.

That's reunification with Taiwan, a place viewed by the People's Republic of China as an upstart breakaway province that rightfully should be part of the Communist mainland.

There are two problems with this fixated thinking process. One is that Taiwan simply doesn't care to be part of the PRC. And who can blame the Taiwanese, who for some reason think they're better off with their freedom than being under the thumb of a brutal and repressive Communist regime? Then there's the problem that the Communist Chinese leaders don't particularly care how this reunification is accomplished, and have on numerous occasions threatened military action against
Taiwan.

In mid-October, PRC President Hu Jintao issued yet another call for a peace treaty with Taiwan based on the "one China" principle.

Two problems with this.

The "one China" policy means that Taiwan would be absorbed by the PRC and would become essentially just another province. As Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said in a New York Times interview and quoted in the Taiwan Journal, "... if Taiwan accepted the 'one China' principle and 'one country, two systems' formula, then it would become a second Hong Kong or Macau. It would be made into a special administrative region or a local government of China. That would spell the end of Taiwan as an independent, sovereign country."

Go, El Paso!

[Taiwan]

Daily Links, Nov 2, 2007

Plenty of stuff streaming by on the blogs....

Ni Howdy has the scheduled for the baseball world cup in Taichung.

nostalgiaphile talks about what's really on Ma Ho-ling's urn.

Anarchy in Taiwan talks about disappointing real doll fantasies.

David has a pointer to great pictures of old Taiwan rail and trains.

Fili blogs on the strange and weird in Tainan.

Jeff has a great post on indigo.

Laowiseass talks about government-funded media trips in Taiwan.

Did you know that ICRT has a show taking oral histories from long term foreigners? Jon does.

Yes, the ministry is pushing an expansion of the "monumentally misguided" Tongyong Pinyin.

ROC the Boat on Taiwan-US Free Trade.

Scott notes that King Car is building another English village in Taiwan.

Joshua notes that US security systems are so maligned that they set their automated response for an apology.

Sponge Bear walks the Green Bikeway.

Robert on Unification and the alleged benefits.

PICS: As always, Craig Ferguson Images has great ones. Formosa Birding too...
MUSIC: Podcasting at Getting a Leg Up
MEDIA: Taiwan beer to move into US and Canadian markets. Taiwan to overtake US as number 2 maker of semiconductors. It's a good thing King George has invested all that government money in killing about a million people in Iraq, instead of wasting it on economic programs, infrastructure, and health care.

[Taiwan]

Nelson Report on Co-Management

The Nelson Report from a few days ago discusses the emerging "co-management" view of US-China relations....which excludes Japan and Taiwan.

+++++++++++

CHINA...there's always several things going on in DC that relate to US-China relations management of some kind, and the trick is to be in several places at once, so you can keep up.

In other words, thank god for e-mail.

Exhibit A, a Loyal Reader pal took notes at yesterday's by all accounts very excellent Heritage Foundation discussion on what's come to be called "co-management" of the US-China relationship.

Since we weren't there, we hesitate to ascribe a particular point to discussants Bonnie Glaser, of CSIS, Randy Schriver, of Armitage Associates, and Heritage's John Tkacik and Harvey Feldman, but our faithful correspondent pronounced himself impressed with all four.

"Nobody said anything crazy", he noted (you can't always count on this in Washington!), adding "the most important point was the consensus that while it's understandable that the Administration thinks in terms of 'co-management' of issues like N. Korea nukes, Iran and, especially, on Taiwan, in fact the term over-states reality and is potentially dangerous because it can be so misleading".

"Co-management overstates the degree of shared interests on North Korea, for example, because calling the 6 Party Talks a 'success' because of China's involvement mistakes a convergence of interests for the reality, which is actually shared aversions, more than shared interests."

Specifically, it's been clear from the start that China, at least, is prepared to live with a nuclear N. Korea, since it, like S. Korea and even Japan, feels it has more, realistically, to lose from instability and collapse.

"Co-management" is also potentially harmful as an implementing principle because it "creates a duopoly and suggests an exclusion of other key players", specifically Japan (as the Nelson Report has been stressing recently) and especially on Cross Strait issues, with Taiwan.

Discussants suggested that "what we are trying to do is to elevate China's cooperation, but this co-management concept puts China in a position to create linkages and trade-offs before the reality of such cooperation actually exists...see especially the Dalai Lama vs. China's 'cooperation' on Iran and Burma."

So Glaser, Schriver, Tkacik and Feldman didn't like anything about co-management? Well, it's possibly OK as an organizing tool, perhaps, as an aid to looking ahead so the US can pick and chose areas of cooperation..."we are too closely integrated to do otherwise, such as on global warming and energy efficiency and conservation."

Conclusion: "We should try to find areas of cooperation but we should not, on faith, put this concept or relationship at the center of US foreign policy at this time".

+++++++++++++++

Making decisions without consulting the locals on them simply guarantees inability to enforce them. Somehow the Taiwanese need to be brought into this relationship....

[Taiwan] [China] [East Asia] [Korea] [Japan]

DPP and KMT Trade Stupidities

The Taipei Times ran an editorial today ripping President Chen for once again screwing up, this time with respect to respect for the dead. Last week Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou traded barbs over Ma's totally fake love for Taiwan, with Chen ripping Ma publicly:

"If Taiwan were truly Ma's homeland as he claims, then why doesn't the word `Taiwan' appear on his father's urn? Instead, the inscription only mentions building a greater China," Chen said.

Chen said the inscription on Ma Ho-ling's (馬鶴凌) urn said: "Replace independence with gradual unification, strengthen China and work towards unification."

Ma Ying-jeou's camp immediately struck back, calling Chen "malevolent and disrespectful" for using a deceased individual as a political hatchet.

"What Chen did today was completely against the principles of benevolence, honesty and forgiveness that are so deeply rooted in the Taiwanese spirit," said Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), Ma Ying-jeou's running mate.

Note that the KMT assigns the riposte to Siew, who is a Taiwanese. This permits the Great Man (Ma) to maintain dignity by being above the fray, while his underlings strike back on his behalf -- the same dynamic at work in Hu Jin-tao's peace offersurrender demand, where the Great Man spoke of peace while his underlings threatened war (and again yesterday from the head of China's Taiwan affairs office). It's a bad idea in Taiwan to insult a man's ancestors, and disrespecting the dead, especially the recently dead, is taboo. And Ma Ho-ling, whom no one would ever accuse of playing with a full deck (but who died old and in the arms of his mistress, more power to him), does not make a worthy target for nationalistic vitriol, in any case.

I knew that when Chen was made Chairman of the DPP stupid stuff like this would happen. Luckily for my sore fingers the Taipei Times responded appropriately today:

Today, we are beginning to see this self-destructive behavior re-emerge just in time for the legislative and presidential elections thanks to an ill-advised broadside against Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), based on the words of Ma's late father engraved on his urn allegedly supporting China's unification.

This is specious and repulsive politicking on Chen's part. Worryingly for the DPP, Chen seems unaware that attacks on politicians for the perceived sins of their parents can backfire badly.

It is bizarre that Chen would adopt a strategy based on indecent assumptions of family accountability when Ma's track record -- the things Ma has done for which he is solely responsible -- is fodder enough for political purposes.

Chen rightfully took responsibility for the single most damaging event to his government: the failure to capture the legislature in late 2004. He did so by resigning the party chairmanship -- a move that was highly appropriate considering that the loss was a strategic debacle. The DPP treated the poll like a presidential election, focusing on cross-strait sloganeering instead of local candidates and developing strategies for the then multiple-member districts.

Until Chen took over the Chairmanship, I thought Hsieh had a strong lead. *sigh* At least the referendum drive is going well, with more than 2 million signatures collected, far exceeding the 800,000 needed.

All this is at the national level. The presidential election will likely go well, win or lose, but the real key is the local level elections. Last time Chen was at the helm, the DPP blew elections they could have won. The DPP desperately needs a professional party chairman who has but one focus: putting DPP candidates into office. Hopefully none of this will stick to Hsieh.

The International Herald Tribune ran an AP article on Ma Ying-jeou's position: there is one China and it includes Taiwan.

The consensus, negotiated between Taiwanese and Chinese representatives in Hong Kong, holds to the idea of a single China -- including Taiwan -- but says the island and the mainland disagree on what it means.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Ma said he maintained his support for the consensus, which was agreed to one year after Taiwan's Nationalist government renounced a 40-year long determination to retake the mainland by force.

"The 1992 Consensus has always been my policy and I have never stopped saying so," Ma said.

Announcing that Ma thinks Taiwan is part of the China while running for President is pretty much what the DPP wants him to do. Moreover, the 1992 Consensus that Ma refers to was something that the KMT simply made up, as one of those present admitted a while back. Yesterday Ma praised Chiang Kai-shek and said he only made a few small mistakes, or suchlike (I don't have the exact quotes), only problems being the White Terror and 2-28. Another brilliant move. Ma is obviously an ideologue, but don't worry -- none of Ma's deeply Chinese thinking will ever make it into the foreign media. After all, he's charming, and he speaks good English, and he went to Harvard, and that is all Ye foreigners know on earth, and all ye need to know...

On the humorous side, the papers have been filled with the saga of the wife of DPP legislator Luo Wen-chia. He was DPP, she KMT. First she threatened to divorce him for running again this year, but has since calmed down, and now is only going off to the US to hide during the election campaigns. They are not a traditional political couple, Legisator Luo lamely explained.

UPDATE: A-gu agrees.

Well, what we don't know is who put this on the urn (dropped the ball on that one reporters). Frank Hsieh suggests Ma Ying-jeou himself may have written it, but offers this only as a hypothetical possibility. Ma Ying-jeou offers no hints.

But more importantly, who cares? I agree this is disrespectful. Attack Ma on his records. Replay his old quotations on this topic over and over. Don't talk about his father.

As I note in the comments below, when someone complained that I hadn't mentioned that the KMT had argued Chen had misquoted the urn, what's written on the urn itself is irrelevant (it's subject to interpretation). The problem is that Chen should have ignored the whole thing. Now Ma gets to parade around in public looking like the good Chinese son. Stupid, stupid, stupid. We don't need the urn to know that Ma is a pro-China Deep Blue ideologue masquerading as a "moderate."

[Taiwan] [Chen Shui-bian] [KMT] [DPP] [Ma Ying-jeou]