Kitty Hawkin' France

Last year China offered us L'Affaire Kitty Hawk (my long blogpost). Readers may recall that China had denied the US carrier Kitty Hawk entry into Hong Kong port for a normal Thanksgiving visit, an event followed by truculent explanations, but which in the end appeared to be a communciations eff-up. About the same time it also denied two US minesweepers entry into Hong Kong during a storm, a far more serious affront to the laws of the sea.

What many observers felt was strange was China's abuse of the US Navy, because the Navy had done its level best to get along with the Chinese, treating them better than almost any other branch of the US government. Chris Nelson of the Nelson Report observed at the time: "... China has had NO better friend, in terms of adult supervision of the relationship, than the US Navy."

The fact is that there is nothing strange about this behavior; it is perfectly normal. Let's expand on what I noted last year:

Anyone who has observed China's relations with the outside world for any length of time has seen this pattern again and again. In the midst of negotiations with the Vatican, it consecrates two bishops for the state Church. In the midst of negotiations over the Olympic Torch coming to Taiwan, it denies a visa to the representative of the city of Kaohsiung to discuss the games to be held there in 2009. Arriving in India for negotiations, its ambassador announces a whole Indian state is part of China. Last year the Chinese government shut down an expat magazine in China that was widely considered the most sympathetic and supportive expat rag in that nation. After attending the ASEAN meeting in November where it has positive interactions with ASEAN members, it immediately goes out and holds war games in waters disputed by those nations, without informing them. And of course China gets the Olympics with promises to upgrade its rights situation, yet crackdowns on the internet and journalists intensify, while state security arrests double. Catch the pattern?

Now it's France's turn to be thanked for its hard work on behalf of China. Frankly I think it is wonderful that the Chinese are attacking France. France has been the one nation that has consistently supported China, emphasizing its "special relationship" and repeatedly arguing that the EU should break the weapons embargo caused by Tiananmen. It's hard to know who to laugh at more here, the Chinese for protesting against one of their best friends, or France for imagining that friendship with China would ever be reciprocated. Welcome to China France -- you've been Kitty Hawked!

Of course, the spectre of Kitty Hawkin' also raises the question of what China will do to Ma Ying-jeou after he sucks up to Beijing.

Sadly, some of the amusing aspects of this affair faded yesterday as a westerner was attacked outside a Carrefour there for the crime of being a westerner. Let's hope it was just an isolated thing.

The protests raise another issue: that of the economy. In the public mind Tiananmen is popularly linked with democracy protests though the issue is surely more complex than that, but that year, even though official figures showed comfortable economic growth, the reality was that there was a recession and local incomes shrank. No wonder there were protests. I'm curious whether what is happening with the outwardly-focused protests is an example of displaced anger that otherwise might be focused on the government for rising food prices, especially given China's wildly unequal distribution of income....

[Taiwan] [China] [Kitty Hawk] [France]

China Opposes UN Referendum...as Earth still orbits sun

Reuters reported that China was once again kvetching about the UN referendum, a harmless piece of electioneering that can have no concrete effect, since China possess a veto in the UN and can block Taiwan's entry whenever it pleases.

China has again prodded the United States to oppose a controversial referendum on U.N. membership by Taiwan and warned Washington to stop arms sales to the island China claims as its own, state media said on Tuesday.

The purpose of this exercise is apparently to get Washington to say something to Taipei. But the latter two players have already expressed their mutual displeasure with each other's stance, and neither the obdurate Bush nor the election-bound Chen is going to back down.

Meanwhile French President Sarkozy, in Beijing drumming up business for French companies, was kind enough to say a few words on behalf of Beijing about the referendum:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday that his country opposes "Taiwan independence" and the island's push for a referendum next year on UN membership.

France holds that there is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an integral part of China, which is the general position of the international community, Sarkozy said.

Any unilateral initiative is "ineffective and unjustified", especially the planned referendum, he said during the meeting with President Hu Jintao.

"It (the referendum) is not a useful initiative. It is therefore regrettable and I hope it will not be pursued."

Several European leaders have spoken out on China's behalf. Last month it was EU Preznit Javier Solana who did the Beijing kowtow. As the Economist reported this summer:

Why is the EU meddling? Taiwan is a thriving democracy and big trading partner (almost as important as India or Brazil). The explanation is simple and unedifying: the EU is doing China's bidding. Chinese rulers regard the Taiwan referendum as a sneaky step closer to an eventual declaration of formal independence by the island.

China expends extraordinary energy on pestering other governments to preserve the strange limbo inhabited by Taiwan, a self-governing island of 23m that it insists is a wayward province. Whenever Taiwan irks China, its ambassadors appear at foreign ministries worldwide, demanding that Taiwan be rebuked.

An internal EU memorandum sheds light on the way such strong-arm diplomacy works. Prepared by officials working under Javier Solana, the EU's foreign-policy supremo, it describes a meeting, late last month, between the Chinese ambassador to the EU, Guan Chengyuan, and a top Eurocrat. According to EU note-takers, Mr Guan called the referendum provocative and destabilising, and said China wanted EU support, as it did not want to have to use “the last resort”—an apparent reference to its threat to use force, if necessary, to “reunify” Taiwan.

China always welcomes people to meddle in its "internal affairs", so long as they agree with Beijing. Fortunately the EU rank and file is hardly as craven as its leadership -- despite calls from leaders the embargo on arms sales to China remains intact, and 84 members of EU lawmaking body called for representation for Taiwan in the UN last month.

A group of 84 members of the European Parliament released a joint statement Thursday to express their support for Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations.

The members representing various political groups, who have gathered in Strasbourg, France for the European Parliament's plenary session, noted in their statement that Taiwan is a sovereign state that has never been governed by the People's Republic of China and that it is wrong and unfair for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to claim that Taiwan is part of China and deny Taiwan's eligibility for membership.

They pointed out that in a report on China issued last September, the European Parliament called for representation for Taiwan's 23 million people in international organizations and that to this day, Taiwan remains excluded from most of these organizations.

Calling Taiwan a full-fledged democracy with a highly developed economy that can make valuable contributions to the international community, the members urged the European Union's 27 member states and other U.N. members to seriously consider Taiwan's application for membership in the world body.

China knows full well that the referendum cannot succeed. Why is it pushing the EU and Washington so hard to suppress Taipei? Because if it attacks Taiwan's democracy itself, it risks stirring up the DPP's pro-Taiwan voters, and souring KMT supporters with its heavyhandedness. Hence it wants other to do its dirty work. Hopefully US and EU officials won't continue their policy of running interference for China.

[Taiwan] [China]

Taiwan's Military Advances

With the media raising the spectre of confrontation across the Taiwan Strait, there's been quite a flow of news about Taiwan's military in recent days.

Yesterday the US Taiwan Business Council criticized Washington for delaying on the sale of 66 F-16 fighters the island desperately needs:

A U.S. business group accused the Bush administration Friday of jeopardizing Taiwan's security by stalling a potential $4.9 billion deal for 66 advanced Lockheed Martin Corp F-16 fighter jets.

In recent weeks, the administration has heaped pressure on President Chen Shui-bian to abort a planned referendum on United Nations membership in the name of Taiwan.

As part of its drive to derail what it deems a provocation to Beijing, U.S. officials have told Taipei to delay formal efforts to acquire the F-16C/Ds, said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.

"This is unprecedented in any bilateral U.S. security relationship," Hammond-Chambers said in a telephone interview. "Depriving Taiwan of the arms it needs is inherently destabilizing."

The business council represents about 100 U.S. companies doing business with Taiwan, including top U.S. military contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Raytheon Co.

Taiwan's legislature adopted a 2007 defense budget on June 15 that included funds to start buying new F-16s provided the United States released price and availability data -- the first step in the arms-sale process -- by Oct. 31.

Hammond-Chambers is entirely correct: the US position is fundamentally destabilizing, for it is (1) signaling that Taiwan is violating the Status Quo; (2) refusing to sell it needed weapons; and (3) attempting to suppress its development of missiles that can hit targets in China. It is also bad business and poor procurement policy -- every F-16 sold to Taiwan means jobs in the US, and reduced procurement costs for the US military as they can take advantage of economies of scale in defense manufacturing.

Even as the State Department criticized Taiwan for taking liberties with the Status Quo, the Pentagon offered Taiwan $2.3 billion in weapons last week. The most recent Nelson Report noted:

it may not be entirely coincidental that one day following a major policy speech on US-Taiwan relations by DAS/State Tom Christensen (Nelson Report, 9/11), DOD was given clearance to ask Congressional approval for an arms sale including the long-stalled anti-submarine patrol aircraft for the island.

The Pentagon's offer included:

The Pentagon announced tentative plans on Wednesday to sell surplus P-3C Orion submarine-hunting aircraft and air-defense missiles to Taiwan in deals potentially worth more than $2.23 billion, including related gear and services.

Taiwan is seeking to buy 12 surplus P-3C maritime patrol aircraft with T-56 turboprop engines, data terminals and a mobile operation command center in a deal that could be worth $1.96 billion, the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a notice to Congress.

It said in a separate notice it was also tentatively planning to sell Taiwan 144 SM-2 Block 3A Standard missiles to defend against cruise missiles and aircraft threats in a package that could total $272 million.

The P-3C is a land-based maritime patrol and submarine warfare aircraft. It is replaced in the U.S. arsenal by the P-6 Multi-mission maritime aircraft due to enter service in 2013.

As part of the proposed P-3C deal, Taiwan also would get help integrating its intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance network, the Pentagon said.

This interesting juxtaposition of criticism on one hand with arms sales on the other may indicate to some that the State Department is engaging in political theatre whose real meaning is the opposite of what is ostensibly intends, but nothing coming out of Washington suggests that. It is more likely that the Pentagon is showing its displeasure with State's position vis-a-vis China, or that the US government is so huge the left and right hand are not only unaware of what the other is doing; they do not even know they are attached to the same body.

Also on Taiwan's procurement list is 90 engines for its next generation attack boats, from Tognum AG in Germany. Veteran corrrespondent Wendell Minnick has the call in Defense News:

The Taiwan navy has placed a four-year, $149 million order for 90 diesel engines from MTU Asia, a subsidiary of Tognum. Three of the 16-cylinder Series 4000 engines will power each stealthy 170-ton Kuang Hua-6 (KH-6) Guided-Missile Patrol Craft.

The KH-6 was designed by the navy’s Ship Development Center in Tsoying Naval Base in Kaohsung; a prototype was introduced in 2003 after three years of development.

The boats have sophisticated surveillance and fire control systems, radars and data links. With a top speed of 30 kts and a range of 800 nautical miles, the boat is 34.2 meters long, 7.6 meters wide, four meters high and has one 20mm gun. Its main deck is canted at 12 degrees to reduce the radar signature; special paint reduces the infrared signature.

The KH-6 will be armed with four Hsiung Feng 2 (Brave Wind) anti-ship missiles. During the annual Hankuang 19 exercise in 2003, the KH-6 prototype test-fired one HF-2 missile that destroyed a retired Yang-class (Gearing-class) destroyer. The HF-2 was developed by the military’s Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, which says the missile has a range of 150 km at Mach .85 — sources say more. CSIST’s other missiles include a new HF-3 and a land attack cruise missile version, the 600-km HF-2E, that can strike deep inside China.

Launched in 1996, the KH-6 program has seen numerous setbacks. Fifty boats were planned, a number halved two years later due to budget constraints. In 2005, state-owned China Shipbuilding Corp. (CSBC) received a $292 million contract, then fought off a challenge by Jong Shyn Shipbuilding.

The 30 KH-6s will replace 50 47-ton Hai Ou-class (Sea Gull) PTGs, which carry two HF-1 missiles and whose aluminum-alloy hulls had coorosion problems. In 1998, a Hai Ou hull buckled after running aground and sinking off Penghu Islands southwest of Taiwan. Based on the Israeli Dvora-class, the Hai Ou were built indigenously in the early 1980s with public donations. The donations were given as a show of support for the military after the U.S. switched diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.

Minnick's reference to the tussle between CSBC and Jong Shyn relates to a minor scandal that occurred when a private firm complained that the bid had been rigged. The story is still hanging around on the excellent Global Security website.

With China making noises at Taiwan, the Taiwan military took unusual steps to reassure the public that Everything is Under Control, opening the new Kidd class destroyers to public view. Max Hirsch of Kyodo tells the story:

The Taiwanese military, in unusually open yet bold naval exercises Wednesday, invited foreign and domestic media for the first time on board a Kidd-class destroyer to observe drills aimed at countering China's navy in the Taiwan Strait

Its flight deck thronged with reporters, the destroyer -- accompanied by three frigates, a submarine, and other vessels and aircraft -- cruised 54km east of Taiwan toward China, to stage a live-fire drill and anti-submarine maneuvers.

"The media had never boarded our Kidd-class destroyers before today," said military spokesman, Lt.-Col. Ben Wang, on Wednesday. "This is to let the public know that the destroyers are capable of fighting."

Taiwan purchased four Kidd-class destroyers from the United States as part of an arms deal that Washington had offered to the island in 2001. Two of the destroyers were delivered to Taipei in 2005 and two last year amid rival China's military rise.

Though manufactured in the mid-1970s, the U.S.-made, 563-foot destroyers are now the centerpiece of Taiwan's navy, boasting more power and sophisticated weapons systems than those of China's naval warships.

"We can't compete with China in terms of quantity," said Rear Admiral Liu Chih-chien while speaking to the press on board the destroyer, referring to China's growing fleet of indigenous and Russian-made navy vessels.

"But we can compete in terms of quality," Liu said. "We're confident that we're stronger than China."

Meanwhile IHT reports that France is considering selling weapons to Pakistan, weapons it has also sold to Taiwan...which means that the Chinese will be getting their hands on them:

Pakistan is seeking to buy missiles and radar from France for a fighter plane that it is developing jointly with China, according to the respected defense publication, Jane's. Experts say such a sale would carry a risk of the technology falling into Chinese hands, circumventing a European arms embargo on China.

Pakistan is talking to France about getting air-to-air missiles from the MBDA company and radars from Thales for its JF-17 fighter, Jane's Defense Weekly said.

Those missiles and similar radars also equip Taiwan's French-built Mirage fighters, defenses that could be compromised if Pakistan transfers the technology to China, according to Jane's.

If Pakistan lets Chinese engineers look at the technology, as reports say it did with U.S. military equipment in the past, then such a sale would also circumvent an EU ban on arms sales to China that has been in place since the Chinese military crushed pro-democracy protests in 1989.

Experts say that embargo is increasingly porous and France has previously lobbied for it to be lifted.

Great work, France.

[Taiwan] [US] [China]