Robert Ross Does it Again

Wow. Among the hundreds of articles on Taiwan I have discussed on this blog over the last couple of years, this piece of dreck from Robert Ross, For China, How To Manage Taiwan?, represents the absolute nadir of writing on the island and its future in a major media publication.

Probably the only accurate statement in the piece is found in the opening two paragraphs:

Although Chinese business leaders, particularly in Shanghai and in other coastal cities, prefer that China focus on economic growth, rather than on preparations for war against Taiwan, Chinese party leaders in Beijing remain fixated on Taiwan. Taiwan is the foremost symbol of Chinese nationalism.

After that, it flows like sewage going downhill:

Taiwan's independence movement challenges China's nationalist agenda of reversing the humiliations of the imperialists by unifying lost territories. It also threatens the nationalist legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Moreover, China has a vital security interest in Taiwan, a small island 90 miles from its coast (think Cuba). For all of these reasons, Taiwan has been an issue of war and peace for China that continues to challenge U.S. cooperation and remains a political vulnerability for Chinese leaders.

In the above paragraph, Ross simultaneously accepts China's position that Taiwan is a "lost territory" (no ethnic Chinese emperor ever ruled it) and its claim of "humiliation" which it advances to cover its expansionist territorial dreams and whip up Chinese nationalism to provide legitimacy for the ideologically bankrupt Communist Party

Chinese moderation is all the more remarkable, given the series of provocations from Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's leader. Over the past year, Chen has all but declared formal Taiwan sovereign independence from mainland China. His speech on Oct. 10, just prior to the opening of the Party Congress, was particularly provocative.

In this la-la land, Chen Shui-bian provokes; missiles and threats do not. Needless to say, Ross does not point out that being provoked is a policy position for Beijing, a policy that appears to have been especially successful in the Ross case.

One point that should be made here -- Ross wrote in the spring of 2006 that Taiwan's independence movement was 'fading'. Apparently this "fading" movement is a threat to China. Yes, being a pundit means never having to admit that you were totally wrong.

Chen Shui-bian has not only riled Beijing--he has displeased the Bush Administration, as well. Despite U.S. security cooperation with Taiwan and American support for Taiwan's democracy, state department officials have publicly criticized Chen's initiatives, and the White House no longer urges Beijing to negotiate with Chen, but rather encourages China to look forward to cooperation with Chen's successors. The White House has also praised China's moderate response to Chen's provocations.

LOL. Chen Shui-bian, the root of all evil. It is certainly true that Chen has made some dumb moves in managing the relationship with the US; it is also true that the Bush Administration has strangled the relationship from its end for the last five years. Surely a more nuanced presentation of the issues is possible.

In the past, China would have responded to such Taiwan provocations with combative rhetoric, deadlines for unification and military threats. Over the past year, however, including during the weeks leading up to the party congress, China has exercised considerable restraint. Its propaganda machine has yet to turn its full attention on Taiwan, and the Chinese military has been content to carry out its routine annual exercises. In his speech to the party congress, Hu Jintao offered to open peace talks with Taiwan.

But why should China turn its propaganda machine on Taiwan, when it has Robert Ross to do its work for them? I think we have noted, to death, that the "peace talks" were a surrender demand -- note that Ross fails to inform his audience of the "condition" for talks: that Taiwan give up its sovereignty. Yet another key fact suppressed in Ross' presentation.

Chen Shui-bian is an isolated and unpopular politician on the subject of Taiwan. The Taiwan electorate recognizes that Chen is driven by ideological and nationalist aspirations for Taiwan independence, rather than focused on the economic and strategic welfare of the island. Chen is in the last months of his presidency and Taiwan is in the midst of presidential campaign. Taiwan's two presidential candidates both stress economic development and cross-strait stability, rather than such symbolic gestures as changing the name of Taiwan or promoting Taiwan membership in the United Nations.

Here Ross simply reproduces the standard China/KMT line on Taiwan politics: Chen doesn't care about Taiwan, he doesn't care about the economy, etc. Nobody likes Chen. The other candidates are moderates. Ross takes everything at face value, from pan-Blue media polls to Chen's relationship with Hsieh (can anyone say "political theatre?")

Frank Hsieh, the candidate from Chen Shui-bian's party, is doing his best to distance himself from Chen and his provocations. The opposition party candidate is Ma Ying-jeou. He is leading in all of the polls, and he is favored to win the presidency. He opposes Taiwan independence, he supports direct trade between the mainland and Taiwan, and he says that he will try to negotiate a peace treaty with Beijing.

Ross again reproduces standard KMT propaganda -- the "polls" are all pro-KMT media polls, and the idea that Ma is the "favorite" is laughable. Nor does he mention that Ma is pro-China, that his party is cooperating with China, and that Ma's "peace treaty" offer was first proposed by Soong in 2000 and the electorate has never shown interest in it -- and that Ma wants to annex the island to China. Key facts, once again supressed.

The presidential election is in March 2008. After the election, no matter which candidate wins, a moderate leader will move Taiwan toward a mainland policy that emphasizes stability and economic development rather than independence.

The Taiwan electorate is becoming more moderate because the rise of China is limiting Taiwan's options. The country's economic development has drawn Taiwan into the Chinese market. China is Taiwan's largest export market and the largest recipient of Taiwan foreign investment. Taiwan simply cannot afford to alienate the primary source of its economic prosperity. Nor can Taiwan risk the high cost of war with China by declaring independence.

Earth to Ross: the Taiwan electorate's mainstream position is independence, a position that Ma has slowly been inching toward since he needs to win votes. Ross has to dance around this problem because, well, he declared the independence movement dead last year.

The United States can no longer defend Taiwan. It cannot help Taiwan deal with mainland retaliatory economic sanctions and it cannot defend Taiwan from the mainland's aircraft and missiles. The rise of China has compelled Taiwan to be cautious when dealing with it, and this includes abandoning its aspirations for the symbols of sovereignty and focusing instead on economic development. The major outlier in this trend is Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's lame-duck president.

Note again the obsessive focus on Chen Shui-bian.

It is reassuring that Chinese leaders, in the midst of jockeying for power and selecting the next generation of leadership, have been able to develop a Taiwan policy that reflects their understanding that patience and forbearance will enable Taiwan to alter its course on its own. Ultimately time is on China's side if it can resist the temptation to heighten tensions, which can only undermine the forces of moderation on Taiwan.

Chinese moderation points to Hu Jintao's confidence in his authority. He has not needed to manipulate China's Taiwan policy to serve his political ambitions and contend with the competition. It also suggests restraint among Hu's political competitors. They, too, did not take advantage of Taiwan's provocations to use nationalist sloganeering to promote their political interests.

Ross simply takes the Chinese position. Chinese exhibition moderation, Taiwan exhibits provocation. The main impediment to good relations is Chen Shui-bian, who is a radical (never mind that he was a moderate and pragmatic leader seven years ago). There is nothing structural going in the relationship between Chen and the electorate, which is becoming more moderate -- read, pliable to Chinese desires. Actually, the electorate was always moderate, from the point of view of any rational definition of that word. The immoderate electorate is over in China, where people seem to be unable to accept that Taiwan is not part of China, and to advocate violence in redressing this perceived wrong.

Above all, Ross accepts that it is OK for a Communist dictatorship to suppress a democracy. What more can be said after that?

This is a very sick article. Please take a moment and write in to Forbes: readers@forbes.com

UPDATED: Maddog sent me a few choice observations of his own. The badness of this article is so vast, we have only just begun to explore it. Maddog writes:

* Taiwan policy has been a non-issue this year [How's he know? Was he at the party congress?]
* Chinese party leaders in Beijing remain fixated on Taiwan. [Can you say "contradiction"? A thing can't simultaneously be both a "fixat(ion)" and a "non-issue"!]
* growing sophistication of Chinese policy-making ["Surrender or be destroyed by our sophistication!"]
* short-term Taiwan provocations [could be read as either side doing the provoking?]
* Chen Shui-bian is an isolated and unpopular politician on the subject of Taiwan. ["on the subject of Taiwan"?]

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