Ted Galen Carpenter ♥ Beijing and Wants to Solve Their Strategic Headaches for Them!

In 1938, at Munich, the British and French agreed to Hitler's demands on Czechoslovakia. Hitler's pretext for grabbing his neighbor's land was that ethnic Germans were being mistreated. The Franco-British capitulation on the Sudetenland stripped Czechoslovakia of its modern border defenses and left the nation defenseless. Later Hitler would swallow the rest.

Germany's acquisition of Czechoslovakia solved a number of headaches for Hitler. His generals had considered an invasion of Czechoslovakia a dubious proposition; Czech border defenses were first rate and its army modern and strong. Since Czechoslovakia had not been fought for, the occupation was uneventful and Hitler was quickly able to gain control, saving the Germans from the nastiness of a lingering post-invasion guerrilla conflict. Moreover, the bloodless invasion not only gave Hitler the massive Skoda arms works, one of Europe's largest and most modern arms makers, completely intact, but enough equipment and vehicles to outfit over three dozen divisions. During the 1939-42 period the Panzer 35 and 38 tanks were produced at Skoda (over 1400 supplied to the German war effort), and its sturdy chassis formed the basis for the notable Hetzer tank destroyer and other vehicles. Some authorities argue that Hitler probably could not have gone to war without this vast addition to his arsenal -- it also equipped Germany's Balkan allies, encouraging them to go to war as well.

Why am I telling this story? Because Ted Galen Carpenter has published another piece, another variation on his endless theme of Why The US Should Sell Out Taiwan. This variation is the claim that Taiwan is not an asset for the US. I've dealt with his misunderstanding of the problem of Taiwan before, the way he decontextualizes it (most recently) -- it is a problem of Chinese expansion that isn't going to go away if Taiwan is annexed to China -- but I just wanted to focus on another issue often ignored in discussions of Taiwan.

Taiwan isn't just a problem for the US; it is also a problem for China. Everyone focuses on how easy it would be for China to take Taiwan. Perhaps that may be true, but taking Taiwan is only half the problem -- it must be occupied and administrated as well. From that perspective Taiwan presents a vexing problem for Chinese authorities which will be neatly solved -- just as Czechoslovakia was solved for Hitler -- if China is permitted to annex Taiwan. Indeed, that is why the CCP looks to Ma Ying-jeou with such hope. The raving nationalists in China may call for the extermination of democracy supporters in Taiwan, but the people who crunch numbers and handle logistics know that is easier said than done. Yet the Sellout Crowd would solve this problem for the CCP.

Another thing that will drop into China's lap, intact, is Taiwan's massive arms manufacturing industry. The shameful embargo on arms sales by the democracies has forced Taiwan to manufacture all sorts of items it might otherwise have imported, from fighter jets to missiles to rifles. Think Beijing won't enjoy having access to all that, as well as Taiwan's computer capabilities in software, hardware, and hacking, along with the island's other hi-tech manufacturing facilities. And its weapons, tanks, aircraft, artillery, attack craft, missiles.... the list is endless.

And then there are the ports and airfields, including the base in the South China Sea. All handed over to Beijing. At no cost.

Of course, like Hitler, once the CCP is ensconced in Taiwan, it's on to the next set of projects, the Senkakus, the South China Sea, and Okinawa. Annexing Taiwan to China won't resolve those conflicts; instead Carpenter's "solution" would have the US committed to eventual conflict without the logistical, military, and moral support of an advanced economy with its own armed forces, right on China's doorstep.

Taiwan is not a security liability as Carpenter asserts. It is an asset that, properly exploited, can be helpful in the coming conflicts that Chinese expansionism is bound to provoke. At present, by offering a thorny strategic problem for Chinese analysts to solve, Taiwan serves the important role of tying up Chinese resources and attention that would be freed up to cause problems elsewhere, as well as offering a democratic alternative in the Chinese cultural sphere that is an implicit critique of CCP rule and an inspiration to its enemies.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Republican candidates and their China Business Connections

The Cable at Foreign Policy has the skinny on a clash between Huntsman and Romney over their respective China businesses:

Bain Capital, the firm that Romney founded, has been active for years in trying to help Chinese corporations acquire U.S. technology firms. In 2005, Bain teamed up with Haier Group, China's largest appliance maker, and private equity firm Blackstone Group in a failed attempt to acquire Maytag for more than $1 billion. In 2007, Bain joined Huawei Technologies in an attempt to acquire 3Com for $2.2 billion in cash, but later abandoned the deal because it could not satisfy the objections of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The CFIUS review board was concerned because 3com makes hacking software for the U.S. military and Huawei has ties to the Chnese military.

Ugly, eh? But.... Romney left Bain in 1999. Meanwhile, there's Huntsman:

Last week, The Washington Post reported that Huntsman's company has reduced its workforce in the United States and it moving its "center of gravity" to Asia. His father, Jon Huntsman, Sr., founded the multibillion-dollar chemical company. According to Hunstman Corps' 2010 annual financial report, the company has numerous holdings in China, several joint ventures with Chinese firms, and owns exactly 20 Chinese subsidiaries.

Not much more to say. A huge problem with US China policy is that too many people involved in it are also involved in China businesses.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Latest China Times & DPP Polls

The latest China Times poll offers two versions, one with Soong, one without. In Ma vs Tsai, Ma is up 33.5 to 29.2. Adding Soong, it's 33.0 to 28.6 to 10.0.

A poll in which 30% of respondents don't answer isn't very useful.

UDN editorialized on the situation a few days ago:

President Ma Ying-jeou was campaigning around rural areas when he accidentally found out that a fire had erupted in his backyard -- James Soong's tiny People First Party (PFP) -- which used to be a solid part of the ruling KMT-led "pan-blue" camp -- has vowed to win enough seats to form a legislative caucus and even Soong himself has hinted that he might enter the presidential race.

......

Unfortunately, Ma has not perceived that the real problem facing him is not the PFP defection. Rather, it is the issue of political wisdom and campaigning schemes.

Ma has not perceived the crisis that he is losing the trust of some two million "pan-blue" voters, who, according to the PFP, are wavering in their support, providing nutrition to milk the PFP's defection bid.

Another Ma crisis is that he has spent most of his time on "low politics," or economic and social welfare issues at the grassroots level, instead of "high politics" that relate to political power and morale on the national level.

......

He may not know that he is risking losing the votes of some two million potential waverers, who include the "social elite," opinion leaders and his former staunch supporters.

Instead of worrying about the price of rice wine, Ma should spend more time sorting out why he is losing the trust of swing voters.

Soong is not Ma's problem. Ma's problem is that he does not know what exactly disappointed voters are fretting about with regard to his presidency.

The issue for UDN is Ma's campaign, not his policies. But UDN vastly exaggerates; there aren't 2 million PFP votes out there; the last time the PFP got that many votes was in 2001; by 2004 this had fallen to 1.3 million. In the most recent election the KMT recouped almost all the votes, seats, and politicians it had lost to the PFP. Disaffected Blues might vote Soong, but surely everyone must know a Soong vote is a wasted vote. Perhaps the China Times poll above shows he'll attract merely the anti-Ma Blue votes that wouldn't have gone for Ma anyway.

The DPP released poll results this week that have Ma and Tsai neck and neck at 49.9 and 50.1. Believe at your own risk.
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Daily Links

• UN serves Chinese expansionism: UNESCAP lists Taiwan ECFA as Taiwan, POC
• China is now Brazil's biggest trade partner. Meanwhile the US is going to go into another recession. Great policy move there, Washington, way to look forward. That will really help us curb China's influence. 
• Japan criticizes China's completely unnecessary naval build up, Beijing lashes out.
• The KMT's policy at present is to subsume Taiwan's culture into Chinese culture as "Chinese culture with Taiwanese characteristics." It is also attempting to absorb Taiwanese heroes into the KMT Whig history narrative.
• Russian permafrost to shrivel by a third by 2050 -- releasing all that trapped methane. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

F-16s and US Taiwan-China Policy

Vietnamese brides and foreign workers are so common that in convenience stores in small towns across Taiwan can now be found Vietnamese-language magazines. These were in the Hi-Life in the small town where we live.

WSJ puts out a commentary arguing that the US should sell F-16s to Taiwan because (1) President Ma wants them to negotiate from a position of strength; (2) they would silence charges that he is weak on Taiwan's defense and help his re-election; (3) they'd be good for the US economy and (4) Obama could use them to boost his re-election. To wit:

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has repeatedly asked to buy the F-16s because he understands that Taipei must negotiate with mainland China from a position of strength. Mr. Ma is hardly trying to provoke a fight with China. His administration has done more than any recent government in Taipei to improve ties with the mainland. Cross-strait flights have expanded from 108 a week in November 2008 to a new cap of 558 a week this July. Cross-strait trade is booming.

Beijing clearly wants Mr. Ma to win re-election in January 2012 rather than see the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party regain power. But the U.S. is doing nothing to help Mr. Ma against the charge that he is undermining Taiwan's ability to defend itself. Taiwanese citizens are not prepared to relinquish their de facto independence, at least not before China embraces democracy. No Taiwanese president can compromise on Taiwan's sovereignty, a fact that Beijing does not seem to appreciate.

If the Obama Administration is not impressed by these arguments, perhaps it will heed the political cost of losing a valuable export contract. The U.S.-Taiwan Business Council commissioned a study by the Perryman Group that found the Taiwanese order would create more than 87,000 person-years of U.S. employment.

Except for (1) which is wrong; Ma doesn't want the F-16s and is just making pretty noises, a game Washington is supporting him in playing, these are all solid reasons to make the sale. Nevertheless, I can't resist pointing out that WSJ has supported almost every policy that has gutted our manufacturing base, moved jobs and skills out of the US, and made finance rather than manufacturing the mainstay of the economy, while cheerleading every one of our incredibly stupid and shortsighted wars. Obama is only as strong as the United States that he is handed -- a nation WSJ's policy solutions have materially weakened over the years. Thanks, WSJ.

Meanwhile the Taipei Times reported on the words of longtime senior US Taiwan specialist Robert Sutter about US Taiwan policy. The entire piece should be read; Sutter does not mince words. Highlights:

“Yes, Congress likes Taiwan and when the president of Taiwan wants something, they support it, but what they are prepared to do about it if there is a big blow up with China, I am not sure,” he said.

However, he said, the F-16C/D sale was not “on the cards” anyway and so the congressional letters to Obama were “not a real test of how strong sentiment over Taiwan really is or isn’t.”

.............

The US Congress, he said, would “posture in a certain way” on Taiwan’s behalf, but if things became dangerous they would pull back. Washington, he said, still had a strong determination to help Taiwan, but there was a reluctance to act.

“This administration is re--engaging with Asia big time, but where is Taiwan? It’s not mentioned. It’s not part of it. It’s not there,” he said. “The administration is full of good people. They like Taiwan [and] if China attacks Taiwan, they will be there.”

However, he said that if Taiwan moved in a direction that was not “keeping the engagement going with China,” US support would be thin.

“This pattern of growing ties between China and Taiwan is fully supported by the United States,” he said.

And he stressed that the pattern inevitably narrowed Taiwan’s freedom of action.

“They are just not going to be able to do a lot of the things they used to do and frankly, a lot of this is because they don’t want to. They don’t want to spend money on defense. They don’t want to lose out on the economic advantages of dealing with China,” he said.

“When we reach a point where Taiwan moves in a direction with China that surprises people, when it moves ahead, there might be some people who will point fingers and ask who lost Taiwan. We are all complicit in this. Unless we are out there strongly protesting what is going on — and I don’t see anybody doing that — we are all participants,” Sutter added.

The window for Taiwan's independent action is closing as Chinese colonialism is now backed by real military force, even as the US decline continues (steepened again with this week's do'h-stupid budget cutting deal). It is also important to note that Sutter's comment that if "Taiwan" chooses to annex itself to China, how can the US object? is at the moment a distant dream. As Sutter knows, only a tiny fringe here wants to be annexed to China. It almost seems sometimes that US policymakers are hinting that Ma should proceed with political talks and pretend he has a public mandate.

Sutter actually put his highly analytical finger on a key point: the US is busily engaging China in the South China Sea and also with Japan in the Senkaku Islands, the former south of Taiwan and the latter north of Taiwan.

Taiwan is involved in both these disputes. In the South China Sea, it has a large airbase and its government, the ROC, claims the whole of the South China Sea, just like China. In the north, the ROC government on Taiwan has claimed the Senkaku Islands since oil was discovered there in the late 1960s. Some Taiwanese also claim that the Senkaku Islands belong to Taiwan.

There's no way to disentangle Taiwan from those two issues, yet US policy at the moment treats Taiwan as though it is isolated from those (and other issues) and can be safely handed over to China without affecting any other US interests, a hopelessly contradictory position.

This doesn't even begin to touch the likely follow-on moves of China once it latches onto Taiwan, such as pressuring Japan over Okinawa. Instead it imagines a static fantasy universe in which Beijing grabs Taiwan and then decides that is enough. On what earth will that occur?

Not to mention our crazed policy of carrying out military operations over half a planet. At present, US policy essentially boils down to trading a losing military operation in Afghanistan for US ally Taiwan. Way to go, team!
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Hanging with the Son in Taipei

Went up to Taipei with my son Sebastian to attend the Dems Abroad meeting on Thursday night. We also visited some of the exhibits and museums in Taipei. Took this in 2-28 Peace Park.

Doing Tai Chi in 2-28 Peace Park.

Tz Chi's Da Ai network was filming a TV show.

Now the actors utter their lines.

Injured? Sick? Escapee from a cage? It let everyone approach it quite closely.

The Land Bank, across from the 2-28 Peace Park, has two exhibits. The dinosaur exhibit is ho-hum Big Bone stuff. But inside the Bank in the old vault is a small exhibit of artifacts and documents relating to banking and finance under the Japanese, which was quite interesting (the two story vault is also very atmospheric). The exhibits cost only $20 NT to enter, well worth it. We also visited the Egyptian exhibition at Dead Dictator Memorial Hall. The presentation and artifacts were amazing but it was absolutely packed. $250.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Like Everything Else, Obama's Taiwan Policy is a Failure.

An egret at Gaomei Wetlands.

Factoid of the week, nature: Between 1970 and 1999, Taiwan supplied 384 Mt yr of suspended sediment to the ocean. This represents 1.9% of estimated global suspended sediment discharge and yet is derived from only 0.024% of Earth’s subaerial surface."(source)

Factoid of the week, politics: The presiding judge in the Lee Teng-hui trial is none other than Chou Chan-chun (source). You may recall he was the judge who was swapped out of the Chen Shui-bian case after he ruled in a way the KMT didn't like.

Factoid of the week, military: I'll bet you didn't know Taiwan has an aircraft designated the F-CK-1.

Today both India and the US reported massive cyberbreaches originating in China [UPDATED: worldwide, greatest cyberattack in history, multiple media reporting. Guys, this is a declaration of war]. Yet nothing is done about this behavior, which must be Beijing-government sanctioned. It's time for the US to take action. But apparently the only way that one can provoke the Obama Administration into acting is to either be a small Muslim country or a US government whistle-blower.

The Taiwan Link, who posts sparingly but always magnificently, has a great long piece on the Obama Administration's failing Taiwan policy (Recall Schriver last week as well). I too was optimistic in Jan of 2009 that the dangerous drift of America's East Asia policy under the Bush Administration would be abated:

One had high hopes for the Obama team as it entered office in January 2009. The administration’s Asia team members included seasoned, strategically-minded veterans, such as Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of Defense LTG (ret) Chip Gregson, and Principle Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Derek Mitchell. The two latter focused much of their time on Central Asia issues, despite having significant “boots on the ground” time in Taiwan. Chip Gregson has departed, and Derek Mitchell has been nominated to serve as Special Representative to Burma. Replacements have yet to be confirmed, including nomination of Mark Lippert as Chip Gregson’s replacement.

Sharp, seasoned Pentagon staffers with years of China/Taiwan policy experience within the Office of Secretary of Defense (OSD) include retired Navy Captain Joe Skinner and Principal Director Dave Helvey. The Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense with direct oversight of Taiwan policy is long time Dianne Feinstein staffer Mike Schiffer. Most likely focused on Korea, Japan, and China military-to-military issues, Schiffer has made few public statements indicating strong support for Taiwan’s position. His former boss, Senator Feinstein, has been a leading proponent of China and advocate of U.S.-China relations. At the same time, she has questioned U.S. security assistance to Taiwan (see below).

Highly sensitive to how Taiwan arms sales could affect the U.S.-China military relationship, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Under Secretary of Defense Michelle Flournoy have been less vocal than their predecessors on Taiwan issues. In fact, Secretary Gates was quite sensitive to Chinese concerns regarding arms sales, without much apparent concern for Taiwan. Deputy Secretary of Defense Bill Lynn, who served as a senior Raytheon executive for seven years, appears to have recused himself on Taiwan issues. Lynn has announced his departure later this summer or Fall, and a replacement has yet to be named.

The entire piece must be read, it nicely stitches together all the pieces of Obama's failing Taiwan policy and its continuity with Bush's similar failed policies. For example, The Taiwan Link observes that the issue is not limited to F-16s but takes place across all areas of Taiwan policy...

The Obama administration also has deferred resumption of trade and investment framework agreement (TIFA) talks. Taiwan’s restrictions on market access for U.S. beef have been cited as one rationale for freezing TIFA talks for the past four years. Unlike Taiwan, the U.S. Trade Representative has included the beef issue in trade negotiations with South Korean counterparts. Other Taiwan-related negotiations, including visa waiver and extradition initiatives, appear stalled. In the meantime, the director of China's State Council Taiwan Affairs Office Wang Yi visited Washington in late July 2011 to lobby senior US officials against arms sales.

These are all things I've complained about on this blog. The Taiwan Link appears optimistic only in his view that Congress can balance the Executive. Despite the letter circulated this week from 181 Congressmen on the F-16 sale, Congress isn't going to take independent action on this issue. Note that the US consulting with China on arms sales to Taiwan violates both the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances that Reagan gave. What Status Quo?

The Diplomat hosted a piece this week on whether the US and China are doomed to clash (answer = d'oh). With clashes more or less inevitable, shouldn't we be seeing a major effort to shore up our East Asian allies? Yet the upcoming round of defense cuts will likely produce more retrenchment in Asia, rather than the rational and intelligent choice of pull outs from our stupidity in Iraq and Afghanistan and our illegal Libya intervention to focus on the world's most important region. Future historians will be driven to drink attempting to understand how a great nation could drive itself into the ground so rapidly and invest so long in projects so completely inimical to the health and welfare of its own future.
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Daily Links

• The limits to India-US cooperation
• Excellent commentary on why the absurd abortion stats for Taiwan are so misleading.
• New Taipei city to turn dog shit into gold. In Taiwanese slang "gold" is slang for dog shit. Clever.... 
• Typhoon closing in on Taiwan, rainfall in the north starting thursday and over the whole island friday and saturday.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Action Alert: Dems Abroad Says After Aug 15 Immigrating Relatives to the US becomes much harder

Dems Abroad is sending this around. Apparently the US immigration people have decided that processing visas for all but a couple of dozen countries with a USCIS office will not be able to use the local consulate for processing immigration visas, but instead will have to process them in Chicago at the central office. This is likely to reduce the speed of processing to a crawl.

Remember, there's a Dems Abroad get-together at Carnegies 7-9 pm Thursday!

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Democrats Abroad
Dear DA Taiwan member,

THIS NEW RULE WILL AFFECT US IN TAIWAN. If you are married to a non-U.S. citizen or have children who are not U.S. citizens, an important rule change (Rule: http://www.democratsabroad.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=94024&qid=13094857) is about to take effect that will hamper your ability to move back as a family to the United States.

Whether you want to go to live in the US today does not matter.

Whether you have a foreign family now or not does not matter – your option of a quick return will be foreclosed forever as a result of this rule.

Immigration lawyers believe this change to immigration procedures will mean LONG delays (1-3 years) in getting approval to bring family members who are not U.S. citizens into the States to live permanently-- and while the application is pending, it will impede your non-American spouse's ability even to visit the USA.

Additionally, VISITOR VISA issuance will be restricted as a natural consequence of immigrant visas having long wait times. Consular officers will have to factor in possible circumvention intent by visitor visa applicants that have relationships to Americans where immigrant visas take a long time.

You may have already received the email below directly from Ken Sherman, Chair of Democrats Abroad worldwide--but this issue is so important that I wish to draw your attention to it--as many of our members in Taiwan will be affected.

This rule change goes into effect August 15th -- so those impacted may wish to take steps immediately to avoid being caught in what potentially may become bureaucratic nightmare. The reason for this rule change is, so far as we understand, a cost-shifting measure that has not been properly thought out.

If you intend to return to the US with your non-American spouse and children in the next year you should consult with a qualified US Immigration attorney before August 15th for information on how this change impacts you.

Democrats Abroad is seeking to clarify the situation and representations have been made to the top levels of the American government. It may be necessary to organize an action campaign to oppose this rule change -- and your support will be vital. If you are interested in this issue, please join the newly-formed Democrats Abroad Immigration Group here: http://www.democratsabroad.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=94025&qid=13094857 .

Members of Democrats Abroad are preparing a Fact Sheet and other tools such as petitions and sample letters.

We need to circulate this as a matter of urgency.

Please forward this email to any American friends, family or colleagues living abroad (anywhere!) married to non-U.S. citizens or with offspring who are non-U.S. citizens.

If you are affected personally and wish to join forces with others, please contact me or write to Immigration@DemocratsAbroad.org so that an action committee can be formed.

Kind regards,

Jason Echols
DA Taiwan Chair

email: dataiwan_chair@yahoo.com

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See also here.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Open Letter on LTH Indictment

An open letter from international scholars and observers of Taiwan and China affairs to the President on the Lee Teng-hui indictment (as in Taipei Times):

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Open letter to President Ma

Dear President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九),

We the undersigned, international academics, analysts and writers from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia, have for many years been keen observers of political developments in Taiwan. We were delighted when Taiwan made its transition to democracy in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and we continue to care deeply for the country and its future as a free and democratic nation-state.

However, during the past three years, many of us have felt it necessary to address publicly our concerns to you about the erosion of justice and democracy in Taiwan, most recently in April this year regarding the charges of the “36,000 missing documents” against a number of prominent former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials. We raised these issues as international supporters of Taiwan’s democracy.

At this time we express our deep concern about the charges against former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), often referred to as “the father of Taiwan’s democracy,” who was indicted on June 30 on charges of allegedly channeling US$7.8 million from secret diplomatic funds into the Taiwan Research Institute. These charges and their timing raise a number of questions that are related both to the case itself and the integrity of the judicial system in Taiwan.

First, why did the prosecutors decide to pursue these charges at this time? The events allegedly occurred in the years 1994 and 1995, about 16 years ago. We have difficulty believing that prosecutors discovered evidence only recently, particularly in view of the fact that key evidence cited by the prosecutors was dismissed by a Supreme Court ruling in 2006 in a case involving former National Security Bureau chief accountant Hsu Ping-chiang (徐炳強), who was charged in connection with the missing diplomatic funds. Are these charges perhaps more directly related to the former president’s outspokenness on current political issues, and in particular to the upcoming presidential election?

The second issue is one of evenhandedness: The problem with the administration of secret diplomatic funds appears to be systemic, primarily because of the lack of transparency associated with the funds and vague guidelines for their use. Hence, if the former president is now charged, should fairness not demand that there be investigations, and charges, against other high officials who served at the same time, such as the vice president, premier and provincial governor, who had similar discretionary funds available to them?

The third issue relates to the impartiality of the judicial system. Since November 2008, there have been a number of indictments and charges against former DPP officials and others who were and are critical of your government. The case against Lee appears to be part of a deeply disturbing trend to use the judiciary against political opponents. While there is an obvious need to uphold the law in a democracy, this needs to be done fairly and evenhandedly, with no hint or appearance of any partiality.

Mr President, as head of state you bear overall responsibility for the state of affairs in Taiwan. In democratic systems, proper checks and balances between the executive, legislative and judiciary branches are of the utmost importance. The executive and the legislative branches have a responsibility to exercise oversight and to balance activism in the judiciary, just as the judiciary serves a similar role with regard to the executive and legislative branches. Stating that your government abides by “judicial independence” is therefore not enough. It is essential that all participants in the judicial process — prosecutors, judges and lawyers — are fully imbued with the basic principle that the judiciary is scrupulously impartial and not given to any partisan preferences.

We, as members of the international academic community, are left with the impression that the indictments and practices of the judiciary in Taiwan over the past three years reflect a judicial system that is increasingly influenced by political considerations. There has been a regression in the accomplishments of Taiwan’s momentous democratization of the 1990s and 2000s. As good friends of Taiwan, we are deeply unsettled by this. It undermines Taiwan’s international image as a free and democratic nation.

Mr President, we therefore urge you and your government to ensure that the judicial system is held to the highest standards of objectivity and fairness. Taiwan has many challenges ahead of it and it cannot afford the political divisions created by the use of the judicial system for political purposes.

SIGNATORIES

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Daily Links:

• AP video on restoration of the Lin Family House in Wufeng.
• WantChinaTimes says there aren't enough pilots to fly F-16s anyway (among other objections to the sale). 
• Almost half of Taiwan's universities have rules limiting speech and freedom of assembly
• Taiwan wins war simulation. Sure.
• If the government of Taiwan won't speak up for Taiwanese, we Taiwanese will -- Taiwan's Dragon Boat Racing Team

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Daily Links, Aug 1, 2011

Beautiful day out at Gaomei Wetlands today.

EVENTS: Dems Abroad hosting Obama 50th B-day party. Carnegie's Thurs, 7-9. Stop by and say hello! Details here.

BLOGS:

• Video of late July Bass fishing from Expat Angler. Should be pretty awesome; I've never seen a bass fishing. 
• Koxinga takes fort zeelandia.
• Awesome rides + pics: Todd does 136 and Baguashan. Taiwan in Cycles does Sanlinxi and 165 kms with 2000 meters of climbing. Orz Orz Orz.
• Laowiseass on US vs China views of medicating oneself.
• Asia Eye with underreported news from around Asia.
• Lief on trusty blue trucks.
• Sponge Bear addresses the CNN Go food affair with epic rant.
• Want a cheap carbon bike? They are out there.
• Using acupuncture for larger breasts. But can it get rid of man-tits?
• Changing economy may impact cross-strait relations
• The Foreigner on Lo and other sell outs. Good to see you out and blogging, man!
• Alive and kicking with a couple of lovely photos of one of my favorite areas, the Beimen Salt Farms.
• Ma's China policy a crumbling mass of contradictions.
• David on Formosa says good bye.
• Sea Fishing in Taiwan! from Pat Cowsill
• The Dignified Rant rants about selling F-16s.
• A blogpost about me and my blogging. Thanks!

MEDIA:

• Great piece on how the government likes aborigines when they dance and sing but not when they want land rights and jobs.
• Yet another fire at the Formosa Plastics Plant in Yunlin. More closures ordered.
• Asia Sentinel with a piece which says -- in case you had any doubts -- that the recent South China Sea agreement will do little to calm territorial disputes. Like China's annual fishing ban, there.
• How renaming Taipei's office in Hong Kong matters, politically.
• Taiwan seeks bigger role for its banks in China.
• Ma has calmed tensions, right? So why is the PRC military build up continuing? A review of the disparity and the recent MoD White Paper. Meanwhile Ma's commitment to the F-16s questioned.
• Pro-Beijing WantChinaTimes asks how, if you snuff out the news of a train crash, you can win Taiwanese hearts and minds.
• Taiwan most vulnerable to a downturn but there may be a silver lining in the labor market adjustment.
• Overall tourism growth has been just 5% in 2011
• ChinaRealtime at WSJ on the F-16s and Ma.
• One solution to Taiwan's vast regional disparities: move the capital.

SPECIAL: Another cheating scandal, this time in Pennsylvania. America, you wanted Asian education, you got it.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

The Soong Factor

James Soong, PFP chairman and political heavyweight, interviewed in the Liberty Times (Taipei Times trans). Consider:

This reminds me of the 713 Penghu Incident. Dean [of the Yantai United Junior High School ] Chang Min-chih (張敏之) had been a member of the KMT since he was 17, but just because he stood up for the students who did not wish to join the military, he was labeled a communist spy and executed. It’s a very cruel thing. I joined the party when I was 18, and then I was dismissed from the party.

I don’t want you to think that my fate was the same as Chang’s. What I want to say is that I do not have any personal issues [with Ma], and that is the principle that I, and the PFP, hold to adamantly.

It is also this principle that I told honorary KMT chairman Wu [Poh-hsiung] (吳伯雄). At the time, some people wanted me to go back to the KMT and be an honorary chairman, but I said, “is being a dismissed party member honorary?” So, the first thing [for the KMT] to do is to clarify what happened back then.

We’re always criticizing the communists, but even they understand the concept of righting old wrongs. Besides, I wasn’t the only one who was expelled. Back in the old days, a lot of KMT elites, including Wu Rong-ming (吳容明) [and] Chin Ching-sheng (秦金生) [who were among the] best civil servants and party members of the KMT, had been expelled too.

In the introduction to the interview, Soong positions himself as the true heir to President Chiang Ching-kuo,  who is much better remembered in Taiwan than his father. Note that here he aligns himself rhetorically with KMT reformers of the past, thus playing the victim card and positioning himself as a reformer at the same time. Soong was kicked out of the KMT in November of 1999 after announcing a run at the presidency as an independent when he lost the KMT nomination to Lien Chan.

Soong, who ran as a unificationist in the 2000 election on a platform quite similar to the one Ma is currently pursuing (relations neither domestic nor international, peace treaty, EU-type commonwealth agreement, etc). He also maintains that Taiwan does not need a military since China won't attack it as long as it doesn't declare independence.

Soong was smart enough to nominate a pro-independence surgeon as his Veep in the 2000 election. If he runs seriously, he might do the same in this election. Although the pan-Green camp is hoping Soong runs, it is important to remember that he will also take votes from the Greens and independents who dislike the KMT, especially if he runs a pragmatic pro-Taiwan campaign like he is capable of doing. In the 1990s he was widely given credit for learning Taiwanese and for running the "provincial government" of Taiwan quite well, which raised his standing among the locals.

Much depends on how Soong positions himself in the campaign....

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Daily Links:

• James Manicom interviewed about South China Sea/Senkakus
• The Diplomat: China, Taiwan, reasonableness
• AEC details issues with 4th nuclear plant. It is amazing that the intelligent thing isn't done and the plant canceled. Well, not really. 
• Beijing says no missiles face Taiwan, Taipei laughs.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

What I learned in Tainan

Spent this week in Tainan, a place I love to visit. Overflowing with history, it has the island's best looking women and friendliest people, except for where you're from. I learned a lot in Tainan this week......

Chinese Tourism Profits: Overhyped, Oversold, and Over There

Had a great time biking on Pinglin Road today with Domenic and the lovely Sophie. Here we stop in Nanhu for lunch. 

A few weeks ago the Taipei Times had a piece on the way the tourism industry has not seen the big boost from Chinese tourists the Ma Administration has promised. I remarked then:

Academic with some good observations on the independent travelers from China, including the comment that Chinese tour firms owe Taiwanese $173 million. If Taiwan makes a billion gross from China annually in tourism, at a 5% return that's basically the industry profit since Ma boosted the tourism numbers.

Haha. Because China doesn't pay Taiwan tour firms, essentially the industry as a whole hasn't made a profit on the tourist "boom." However, it's even worse than I thought, as AP reported today in another excellent investigative piece. Just ignore AP's historically inaccurate and factually inept Formula describing Taiwan's relationship to China (didn't "split in 1949"), and feast your eyes on the numbers and quotes:

But interviews by The Associated Press with industry officials and Taiwanese tour operators, and an examination of China's Taiwan tour packages, suggest that the figure has been overstated by at least $700 million. Questions about the accuracy of the government's claims could prove embarrassing to the China-friendly Ma as campaigning heats up.

.....

According to the Taiwan Tourism Bureau's Alice Chen, the Chinese tourist influx has meant big money for the island of 23 million people. Chen says that in 2010 some 1.16 million Chinese tourists spent NT$59.1 billion ($2 billion) in Taiwan, providing a substantial boost for an industry long in the doldrums.

The bureau's figures, Chen says, were collated on the basis of interviews at airports with just 1,896 of the million-plus Chinese visitors, rather than relying on hard data from vendors of tourists services — hotels, restaurants, shopping venues and the like.

.....

The government estimates that Chinese tourists spent an average of $246 a day on the island in 2010. That's made up of $142 for shopping and $104 for the services that are provided by tour package operators — hotels, meals, local transportation, venue admission and incidentals.

But an examination of tour package prices shows they are much lower than the goverment's estimate and tour operators say that, at best, they get half of the money Chinese tourists pay to mainland tour agencies for these tours. That amounts to at least a $700 million hole in the government figure.

The tourism push is an ideal Ma Administration program: it soaks Taiwan to provide resources to China, to large businesses, in fact:

The Taiwan operators say their current business model has been foisted on them by tour operators from the Chinese territory of Hong Kong. These Hong Kong operators comprise only 13 of the 300 operators the Taiwan government sanctions to receive Chinese tourists on the island, but rake in some 50 percent of the take.

The Taiwanese operators, as the article recounts, are forced to offer cut-rate tours with tons of shopping to make up for the losses they take. This may have something to do with the legendary ill-behavior of Chinese tourists: I'd crap all over Taiwan too if I were dragged from store to store, given to substandard accommodations and meals, and abused and forgotten as a mere cash cow.

This disparity between government pronouncements and reality should also call into question the government's constant claims that the Chinese tourists really like Taiwan and would return. Independent and serious survey work is needed on this. It should also call into question key numbers in other areas of China relations, such as ECFA. Hopefully we'll see AP devote itself to a hard look at the numbers.

Should add that just because they tourism firms aren't making profits, doesn't mean that Taiwan as a whole doesn't gain economic benefits.

Finally, I'd like to end this post on a totally warm and positive note. A wonderful warm ad on Taiwan tourism. Don't miss it.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Week Round up of Neat Stuff

Had a great time in Tainan this week, meeting with all kinds of wonderful people and visiting stores and shops all over the Greater Tainan area. More on that later.

So deepest apologies for the light blogging this week. So much going on....

First, Randy Schriver has a great piece in the Washington Times on the US policy of sacrificing all else to maintain a mil-mil relationship with China, a policy which, he says, is Bound to Fail:

As a previous senior director for policy toward the People's Republic of China (PRC) at the Pentagon, I once had responsibilities for managing U.S.-China military relations on behalf of two secretaries of defense. Through work at the Pentagon and subsequent work both in and out of government, I have watched closely as the military relationship with China has developed. To say the results from our efforts have been disappointing would be a gross understatement.

The United States is correct to want greater transparency from the PLA; to enhance the safety of operations in the Pacific; to demonstrate intentions and capabilities for deterrent effect against potential PRC provocations; to reduce the chance of miscalculation through candid dialogue; to seek cooperative approaches to challenges in the global commons; and to influence a younger generation of PLA officers. Yet we now have ample evidence gleaned from 30 years of data that we are further from, not closer to, these goals. Moreover, three decades of attempted engagement have conditioned Beijing to advance its own objectives by leveraging the continuing pursuits of the ardent suitor found in Washington.

Schriver is making points which I have made again and again on this blog -- it's nice to see them in print in Washington. Not much else you can about an article that is comprehensively right, except you should read it all.

President Ma was interviewed in WSJ this week.... note the description of Ma....

Mr. Ma, 61 years old, took office in May 2008 after winning the island's fourth direct election for president. He received a doctorate in law of the sea and international economic law from Harvard Law School in 1981, before he returned to Taiwan and started as the English interpreter for then-president Chiang Ching-kuo. He rose to minister of justice and then mayor of the capital, Taipei, before winning the presidency amid widespread corruption accusations against his opponent's party and outgoing President Chen Shui-bian.

There was some grumbling among the pro-Taiwan crowd of the short description of Tsai Ing-wen as a "former law professor" but the article was really about Ma, and isn't meant to compare the two, so I don't see any bias there (though I have no doubt where WSJ's heart will be during the election). I'll call bias on WSJ when I see a pattern of omitting Tsai's qualifications -- sorry, but one sentence doth not a pattern make.

In any case, the serious omission here isn't Tsai's own policy background, Phd, and much better degree than Ma, but the report of his advancement without mentioning that it was made possible because he emerged like Athena from the head of the old KMT Party-State. I'd bet that we go the next six months of the run-up to the election without any major media pieces on Ma's longtime service to the anti-democracy side in Taiwan's politics, but considering that there were only two in the previous election, I doubt anyone will cover that bet.

The article says that Ma said the purchase of F-16s is getting harder and harder. Yeah -- when Ma was Chairman of the KMT during the Chen Administration, his party blocked the question of the purchase from appearing on the floor of the legislature repeatedly. He doesn't want them.

Fun this week with the revelation that Chinese independent travelers aren't flooding Taiwan with their itinerary-free, money laden presence. AFP reported:

Taiwan’s travel operators said Thursday they were "shocked" that fewer than 600 solo Chinese tourists had visited the island since a ban on such travel was lifted a month ago.

What could you expect when the government set it up so that the travel agency is punished if the independent tourist goes missing? Why would they promote such travel, given the risks? The Taipei Times also pointed out that Chinese youths are busy taking exams so numbers will be low, while the FT column Beyond Brics said Chinese tourists were cramming into Taiwan -- in tour groups, to be sure. Expect these independent traveler figures to rise. I can't wait to run into some of these people on my bike.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Hitler Engineering

After his retirement as leader of Germany, Hitler opened this small engineering firm in Tainan.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Chinese Su-27s breach center line in Strait =UPDATE= FT edits out correct history

Cycling on a perfect Taiwan day.

This is why we don't need F-16s....

The Ministry of National Defense announced that Chinese Su-27s allegedly chasing a US surveillance aircraft crossed the invisible center line in the Taiwan Strait:

The military and national security apparatus was in “full control” when two Chinese Sukhoi-27 fighters crossed the centerline in the Taiwan Strait on June 29, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said yesterday.

The Chinese-language newspaper United Daily News reported that one of the two Chinese fighter aircraft had crossed the theoretical median maritime border between Taiwan and China while allegedly pursuing a U-2S high-altitude US reconnaissance aircraft.

Two Taiwanese F-16 aircraft intercepted the Su-27s, which subsequently returned to Chinese airspace, the report said.

A KMTer spun the incident as one taking place between China and the US, which did not involve Taiwan, an interesting viewpoint. I guess "launching fighters" is the same as "not being involved."

Like Helen of Troy, this incident launched a thousand (air)ships as netizens dredged up old stories. The adherence to the allegedly 1951 US-defined centerline is of recent vintage, as this 2008 piece notes:

From 1949, when nationalist forces left the Mainland and went to Taiwan, until 1999, there were no restraints on Taiwanese jets flying over the line, Lee said.

“During the 50 years ... PLA air force fighter aircraft were seldom active over the strait, and the two sides seemed to have a tacit understanding and lived in peace with each other,” Lee wrote in the September 2008 issue of Taiwan's Chien-tuan K'o-chi (Defense Technology Monthly).

China stepped up flights over the strait after Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui adopted his two-state theory. To avoid conflicts, Taiwanese jets gradually withdrew training flights to areas east of the mid-line. Freedom to conduct missions over the line was “greatly reduced,” Lee wrote.

“However, there was not yet a formal announcement to the outside world, and at that time, Chinese fighter aircraft activity west of the Taiwan Strait mid-line was also very cautious,” he said.

“When the former minister of national defense publicly announced that Taiwan's fighter aircraft would never cross the mid-line, it was the equivalent of announcing that Taiwan had abandoned the airspace west of the mid-line and after that, Chinese fighter aircraft activities in this area increased daily, and gradually became normal,” he said.

But as this 2004 piece in the Straits Times observes, the line has never been clearly defined between the three gov'ts -- because Beijing fears that a clear cut demarcation in the Strait will make Taiwan even more independent than it already is. Other pieces give clear lines.

In 2004 the TSU actually called for a new constitution to clearly define what is Taiwan's and what is China's in the Strait -- who owns what in the Taiwan Strait will become yet another contested issue if Taiwan formally ratifies its existing de facto independence one day. You can imagine what China will do -- fight rearguard sovereignty actions over the Penghu, which are "indisputably Chinese and have been for every freakin' second of the last 5000 thousand years." Then will come the struggles over fishing and mineral rights. Taiwan independence won't be the end of the process of disengagement from China, but the beginning of one....

It should be clear by now that the whole fictional construction of "5,000 years of Chinese history" exists merely to facilitate China's territorial expansion.

The Washington Times reported on this incident in more detail:

Two Chinese jet fighters came dangerously close to a U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft last week during an encounter reminiscent of the aerial collision that touched off a U.S.-China crisis.

Two F-7 jets tracked the EP-3 as it flew in international airspace off the northern coast of China, U.S. intelligence officials tell us.

"They came within 250 feet," said one official.

The encounter was close, said some officials, but less threatening than Chinese aerial engagements in the past, which have come within a few feet of U.S. reconnaissance aircraft.

.....

U.S. intelligence agencies have increased electronic intelligence gathering from China in order to pick up new information on recent Communist Party leadership changes.

The aerial intercept also coincided with renewed Chinese fighter sorties near Taiwan. For the first time in months, Chinese military forces began flying new Su-30 fighter bombers close to the demarcation line that runs down the center of the Taiwan Strait.

At least 12 sorties were detected by U.S. intelligence. The flights were viewed by U.S. officials as provocative and coincided with the major Communist Party congress in Beijing that ended last week.

Some reports in the US Chinese language media from a few years ago appear to indicate that Chinese jets sortie hundreds of times a year and during Chen's UN entry campaign appeared to increase their sorties in response. But this may merely be disinformation aimed at Chinese in the US to say: "Look what we're doing about the awful Chen Shui-bian!"

MEDIA: One really great thing about the FT piece is that Kathrin Hille, who was one of the most knowledgeable, tough-minded reporters about Taiwan I met here, wrote:

Taiwan has not been controlled by a Beijing-based government since China ceded the island to Japan in 1895, but Beijing claims sovereignty over the self-ruled island.

Pithy and historically-accurate. Are you listening, AP? Thanks, Kathrin, that was really great to see.

UPDATE: Totally gutless FT has edited out the "since 1895" remark, leaving: "While Beijing still claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has threatened an invasion if the self-ruled island declared independence, relations between the two sides have warmed since Ma Ying-jeou was elected president in 2008" Dear FT, in case you were wondering why people read blogs, this is why.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.