Judgment Day: July 19th.

Could the KMT disappear into the distance?

Wow. New Zeitgeist: The Journalist's lead article on wed is about the KMT splitting. Wednesday night's talk show on Next TV was 2 hours of on the possibility of the KMT splitting. Radio Taiwan International also did one.   It's all over the media. The rumors, stories, and news of the KMT implosion are flying about -- one can hardly keep up. Some highlights... UPDATE: Taiwan Take, the Coming Collapse of the KMT, part 2.

 From the KMT news organ:

Hung Hsiu-Chu (洪秀柱), Deputy Legislative Speaker and KMT Presidential candidate in-waiting, has drawn some criticism over her “One China, One Interpretation” and cross-Strait peace agreement campaign planks. Yesterday, after visiting former KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), Hung said Lien noted that a cross-Strait peace agreement was one of the “Five Visions” proposed in the 2005 Lien-Hu meeting. Lien said, “For the good of Taiwan, these visions must be carried out.”

Yesterday, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) also expressed his support for Hung. He pointed out that “One China, One Interpretation” and “One China, Different Interpretations” both emphasized the “commonalities” as in “seeking commonalities while shelving differences.”As for Hung’s insistence on “One China,” Ma continued, “it is almost identical to my advocacy that ‘One China’ is the ROC.” “One China, One Interpretation” is the same as the KMT’s cross-Strait policy, added Ma.

Yes, that's right, Hung sought to dispel concerns about her strange cross-strait policy by gaining the support of two-time presidential loser Lien Chan. President Ma, a hardliner and ideologue who is still powerful within the KMT even though he has done severe damage to the Party, publicly said this week that there was "no possibility" that Hung would be forced to give up the nomination. On Twitter Ben Goren of Letters from Taiwan opined that Hung was Ma's catspaw to carry out the cross-strait policies that he dare not.

It's already July and Hung still hasn't assured us she is Taiwanese. Even Ma unbent enough to do that.

How long can Hung stay the candidate with this gathering storm of opposition and laughter? Frozen Garlic remarked that KMTers are living in a bubble universe. Got a little taste of that bubble yesterday, when the author of that bad East Asia Forum piece responded to my comments on his piece.

Hung is indeed a lightweight in the KMT. While other heavyweights chose not to run and waited to be drafted, Hung at least had the courage to throw her hat into the ring. Those who felt she is not the ideal candidate should either run of persuade their preferred choice to run in the primary. They assumed Hung is not going to cross the threshold and waited for the draft to happen. When the draft did not happen, they tried to justify their stance against her by leaving or threatening to leave the party. So far, only one former legislator has done so.

Bubble world at work: According to this writer, Hung is not an existential threat to the party who is making people consider leaving, it's just sour grapes by losers. Bubble world at work 2: Look at last sentence -- when those words were written, at least two had already left, one of whom had established her own party, and the KMT legislator in Changhua said "I am not running for re-election" despite having won huge the last time. The Taipei Times identified her as the 7th legislator who has declined to run.

The fact is that the KMT is facing devastation, because the flip side of this support for Hung is contempt for the Taiwanese who make the party go, and their informal leader, Speaker Wang Jin-pyng. The Taiwanese local factions are now fleeing the party, just as many of us thought they might months ago when we first identified the KMT's potential for implosion.

The Taipei Times noted in a piece on the resurrection of James Soong's political career and his emergence as a possible presidential candidate:

The PFP held a press conference in Taipei to announce its five legislative candidates for the Jan. 16 elections. Three of the candidates are former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators, including Chang Sho-wen (張碩文), who just withdrew from the KMT earlier this week.

The KMT candidate in Tainan (District 4) has also declined to run. Solidarity translates an article from the pro-KMT UDN on the situation in Changhua:

Changhua County was always blue until the November 29 elections, when it all turned green. It is a bellwether for the next presidential election. The KMT had drafted its incumbents—Wang Hui-mei 王惠美, Lin Tsang-min 林滄敏 and Cheng Ru-fen 鄭汝芬—to contest 3 of Changhua’s 4 legislative districts, and it felt optimistic about each. But Cheng has now refused her nomination, and the party is still struggling to find a candidate for the fourth district. It had drafted Chang Chin-kun 張錦昆, chief of Yuanlin Township, but he has told the party he’s not interested and recommended former Legislator Hsiao Ching-tien 蕭景田. Hsiao, in turn, has stated several times he’ll go wherever Wang does. The KMT elites’ attitude toward Wang, and Hung’s statement that “if Wang wants to continue being Speaker, the only way to do that now is to run for Legislature in a district” made Hsiao unable to see or hear anymore because he was extremely disappointed.

Of course, note that Soong a key qualification of Soong's for a pan-Blue presidential run is that he is a mainlander and member of the ruling elite. But now his party is increasingly being seen as the place to which Taiwanese legislators in the KMT will bolt. Soong, who came within 3% of being President in 2000, briefly ruled a huge PFP, and then vanished into obscurity, is now being promoted in the media, back from political death as a possible savior. I suppose if one is going to be savior, one has to rise again...

A Soong-Wang ticket would be formidable and tough for Tsai to beat. The factions won't fight for the KMT in this election if Hung is the KMT's choice, but they will fight for a ticket with Wang. An advantage for Wang is that if he becomes the PFP vice presidential candidate, he can get a seat in the legislature as a party list legislator (not elected, the parties get extra seats based on their showing in the election). KMT Chairman (for how much longer?) Eric Chu has already indicated that he won't be given an extra term as a party list legislator. Solidarity commented:

Plenty of pundits are floating Wang as a PFP presidential, vice presidential, or speaker candidate, but it’s not that simple. As soon as Wang became a PFP candidate, the KMT would eject him from the party; to avoid that dignity he would have left already. But once he’s out of the party, he’s out of the Legislature as well: party-list members, unlike district representatives, serve at the discretion of their parties. That’s why Ma tried so hard to make the KMT to force Wang out earlier.

However, a viable Soong run assumes that he pulls enough legislators out of the KMT to make a run of it with an enlarged PFP.

July 19th, the Party Congress. Judgment Day. Will Skynet go with Hung?
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Daily Links

• EATS 2016 call for papers
• Thinking Taiwan's Taiwan Insider
• Rare gunfight, in Taoyuan over the affections of a tea shop clerk.
• Taiwan's mixed race children finally find their place
• KMT uses park disaster to attack DPP, DPP refutes
• Commonwealth profiles one of the new breed of social activists in Taiwan
• Tsai shoots ad with local Vietnamese wives, emphasizes that they are Taiwanese
• A CPI piece on the election. 
• After years of shilling for the KMT and for the corporate-industrial state here in Taiwan that created our unsafe environment , and for calling for slashing regulations, plundering the US environment, and killing Americans at home (never mind Forbes' insane position on global warming), suddenly Forbes hosts an article complaining about Taiwan's safety. Thanks Forbes, you played your small part in fostering the mess here. And as a special bonus, out of thousands of images that could have been used, Forbes chose one with half-naked breasts. Vile from beginning to end.

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Just a note on Soong and Chen

A PFP candidate's poster in Fengyuan in Greater Taichung

I've been riding the bike on short jaunts lately, around the area, due to overload of work, rain, and cold. One thing I've noticed is that the Soong campaign does not appear to be stinting or going into draw down -- I've seen new posters and sound trucks all over the northern section of the Taichung area and southern Miaoli. While this is only a tiny sample of the island, it appears to me to indicate that Soong is going to stay in to the bitter end, and not drop out and ask people to vote for Ma. If he can get his vote total up to the 6-10% that some polls show, he might enable the Tsai campaign to win despite the ugly negative turn in the campaign.

Go Soong!

Chen Shui-bian came out for the funeral of his mother in law this week. Fortunately, he engendered no controversies. Good news, that.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

AP reports: Soong is in!

The Taipei Times reported that James Soong, the former KMT heavyweight who left the party to run against Lien Chan and Chen Shui-bian in the 2000 election, is submitting 300,000 signatures to the CEC to enter the 2012 Presidential race. AP reported that Soong announced today, Tuesday, that he is in for 2012:

A second China-friendly candidate announced his intention Tuesday to run for president of Taiwan, a move that could undermine the re-election chances of the incumbent.

The announcement by veteran politician James Soong raises the prospects that enough partisans of President Ma Ying-jeou could defect to Soong to push China skeptic Tsai Ing-wen over the top in the tightly contested Jan. 14 election.

That would be a big blow to Beijing, which is quietly supporting Ma's candidacy, because it sees the Harvard-educated jurist as the best bet to create conditions for Taiwan's eventual return to the mainland.

A friend pointed out that Tsai is now inching ahead of Ma Ying-jeou in the NCCU prediction market, with shares of Tsai priced at around ~50 and rising while Ma is at ~48.6 and falling.

Soong, whose is a pro-China, pro-"unification" politician like Ma, insists he is in for the whole trip even though he has virtually no chance of success. His entry into the race automatically raises the profile of his party and may give it further leverage in bargaining with the KMT -- after all, he can always leave the ticket at the last minute and ask his followers to assign their presidential vote to Ma.

Media Note: Ma is now a Harvard-educated jurist whereas Tsai Ing-wen has no similar "LSE-educated" encomium. Can't wait for the revival of the zombie "harvard educated lawyer" claim. The Financial Times hack job on Tsai was also revisited in this piece with its reference to "some Obama officials" who don't like Tsai. *sigh*
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Daily Links:

• Indigenous Industry Expo this weekend at the Flower Expo location
• NCC grilled over WantWant purchase of CNS.
• Haha. Fallout from the accusations of DPP Veep candidate Su Chia-chuan's luxury farmhouse -- he's not the only one.
• Drew's outstanding pics and discussion of his awesome ride up Simaxianshan. That slope is wicked steep. 
• Lonely Planet chooses Taiwan as a top ten travel destination.
• Google with 2012 Taiwan election site on youtube chock full of vids.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Soong Artfully Moves

Public Art in Nantou on Rte 3 just north of Mingjian.

The wily James Soong, head of the People First Party (PFP), a spin-off of the KMT, is keeping himself in the news for the next few weeks during the run-up for the election with a clever PR move:

In an interview with ERA TV last night, Soong said he would pick up the petition form at the commission between Sept. 16 and Sept. 20 and start collecting signatures from supporters on Sept. 22. However, he refused to confirm whether this would be an indication that he was “determined” to run for president.

The number of signatures required to qualify for registration as a presidential candidate is 250,000. Soong, 69, said he would not join the election unless he collects at least 1 million signatures.

This way the "signature drive" will keep him in the news and in front of the public while he assesses his chances and maneuvers for leverage against his chief rival, the KMT itself. He may or may not actually enter the Presidential race, but either way, a smart move. Note that he only has to hand over 250,000 signatures to the CEC in order to qualify for the race, meaning that he could collect a pile of signatures, hand in 250K, and tell everyone he got a million.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Soong Round Up =UPDATED=

The burning local political question the last couple of weeks has been "What will Soong Do?"

Jerome Keating argued the other day he should campaign as a legislator at large rather than President. Keating reasons that Soong must realize he can't win, thus....

No, strange as it may seem, Soong’s best chance is to run as the No. 1 candidate on his party’s legislator-at-large roster. Running at-large would give him the ability to campaign freely across the whole country. His message could be simple and direct while attracting votes for both his party and its candidates in the legislative districts. He could contend: “The country needs my voice. If I am in the Legislative Yuan, I and hopefully other PFP legislators could contribute by working with and fashioning policy with whatever party needs a majority. Help my party and its candidates get past the 5 percent hurdle so that I will have an active platform for the next four years. If clowns like [KMT Legislator] Chiu Yi (邱毅) can be elected as legislators-at-large, a man of my caliber should all the more be in the legislature.”

Soong has already declared that he is determined to win enough seats so his party can pass the 5% threshold and form a legislative caucus. He is also positioning himself as a middle of the road politician who is the answer to the bipartisan legislative culture. There is an oft-heard yearning for a middle way out of the political deadlock, but no middle way can exist. Soong is certainly not it; he's a pro-Unification mainlander and as Deep Blue as any of the KMT heavyweights. Moreover, the PFP won't be competitive in pan-green areas; it can only survive in pro-KMT districts. Savvy Blue voters are unlikely to vote for a PFP politician and split the Blue vote to help the DPP, as KMT legislators pointed out the other day.

Hard to say what Soong's best move is if he wants to keep his party alive (assuming that is his goal).

Another issue being bandied about is the effect of Soong running for President. Everyone seems to think that he'll harm the KMT more than the DPP, but if he vacuums up votes from that crucial 10% of independent voters Tsai must get if she is to win, Soong could do serious damage to the DPP cause.

UPDATED: It's going to be the Presidency. A common trope among Taiwan politicians is to claim that they were reluctant to run, but underlings or family begged them -- remember when Ma was never going to go back to politics, but Dad begged him to enter? Soong is also using this approach:

Former People First Party (PFP) legislators and supporters yesterday presented a signature drive to show their support for PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), urging him to join the presidential election.

Led by former PFP legislators Kao Chi-ming (高資敏) and Yang Fu-mei (楊富美), the group said a signature drive to support Soong’s presidential bid has collected 1185,760 signatures, and Soong should respond to the passion of his supporters by running against President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).

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Daily Links:

• Tsunamis most threaten Kenting nuke plant.
• Clarity doesn't help the DPP's China policy.
• Taiwan's birth rate, world's lowest.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Latest China Times & DPP Polls

The latest China Times poll offers two versions, one with Soong, one without. In Ma vs Tsai, Ma is up 33.5 to 29.2. Adding Soong, it's 33.0 to 28.6 to 10.0.

A poll in which 30% of respondents don't answer isn't very useful.

UDN editorialized on the situation a few days ago:

President Ma Ying-jeou was campaigning around rural areas when he accidentally found out that a fire had erupted in his backyard -- James Soong's tiny People First Party (PFP) -- which used to be a solid part of the ruling KMT-led "pan-blue" camp -- has vowed to win enough seats to form a legislative caucus and even Soong himself has hinted that he might enter the presidential race.

......

Unfortunately, Ma has not perceived that the real problem facing him is not the PFP defection. Rather, it is the issue of political wisdom and campaigning schemes.

Ma has not perceived the crisis that he is losing the trust of some two million "pan-blue" voters, who, according to the PFP, are wavering in their support, providing nutrition to milk the PFP's defection bid.

Another Ma crisis is that he has spent most of his time on "low politics," or economic and social welfare issues at the grassroots level, instead of "high politics" that relate to political power and morale on the national level.

......

He may not know that he is risking losing the votes of some two million potential waverers, who include the "social elite," opinion leaders and his former staunch supporters.

Instead of worrying about the price of rice wine, Ma should spend more time sorting out why he is losing the trust of swing voters.

Soong is not Ma's problem. Ma's problem is that he does not know what exactly disappointed voters are fretting about with regard to his presidency.

The issue for UDN is Ma's campaign, not his policies. But UDN vastly exaggerates; there aren't 2 million PFP votes out there; the last time the PFP got that many votes was in 2001; by 2004 this had fallen to 1.3 million. In the most recent election the KMT recouped almost all the votes, seats, and politicians it had lost to the PFP. Disaffected Blues might vote Soong, but surely everyone must know a Soong vote is a wasted vote. Perhaps the China Times poll above shows he'll attract merely the anti-Ma Blue votes that wouldn't have gone for Ma anyway.

The DPP released poll results this week that have Ma and Tsai neck and neck at 49.9 and 50.1. Believe at your own risk.
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Daily Links

• UN serves Chinese expansionism: UNESCAP lists Taiwan ECFA as Taiwan, POC
• China is now Brazil's biggest trade partner. Meanwhile the US is going to go into another recession. Great policy move there, Washington, way to look forward. That will really help us curb China's influence. 
• Japan criticizes China's completely unnecessary naval build up, Beijing lashes out.
• The KMT's policy at present is to subsume Taiwan's culture into Chinese culture as "Chinese culture with Taiwanese characteristics." It is also attempting to absorb Taiwanese heroes into the KMT Whig history narrative.
• Russian permafrost to shrivel by a third by 2050 -- releasing all that trapped methane. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

KMT-PFP Merger in the cards?

When the new legislative reductions and new election system were announced, there was widespread conviction that they would spell the doom of the small parties. Of particular interest is the People First Party (PFP), which was never a real political party (the KMT was at least welded together by a common interest in maintaining flows of cash) but the personal faction of powerful former KMT politician James Soong. Soong's star blazed across Taiwan's politics from 2000-2004, and after his great showing in the 2000 election, many predicted he'd be a force to be reckoned with.

The reckoning came, Soong receiving his personal notification of mene mene tikal upharsin when he won only 9% of the vote in the Taipei mayoral elections last year. Brooding somewhere offstage, his party has begun to dissolve. This week the KMT and the PFP were back in talks about a merger:

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) yesterday pledged to campaign for pan-blue legislative candidates recommended by the KMT-People First Party (PFP) alliance regardless of their party affiliation.

The KMT-PFP alliance joined to nominate six legislative candidates and is planning to register legislator-at-large candidates under the KMT, Wu said.

"The six candidates were nominated by the KMT and by the PFP. Regardless of their party affiliations, the KMT will treat them the same and campaign for them," Wu said yesterday.

The six PFP legislative candidates nominated by the alliance are Ko Shu-ming (柯淑敏), Lee Hung-chun (李鴻鈞), Wu Chin-chih (吳清池), Chung Shao-Ho (鍾紹和), Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁) and Daniel Hwang (黃義交).
Hwang yesterday confirmed that he joined the KMT last month.

Hwang said he made the decision to meet the expectations of his supporters, adding that PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) was aware of the matter and understood his position.

Chung, who was jointly recommended by both the KMT and the PFP to run for the legislature in January in the first district in Kaohsiung County, said Hwang's move "reflected the political reality" and was "understandable."

Chung said PFP members running on behalf of the two parties all face the same situation as Hwang because "supporters want to see us run under the banner of the KMT."

According to the consensus the KMT and PFP reached on the joint candidates in April, the legislative candidates will be registered under the KMT, and the two parties will negotiate on the nomination mechanism of the legislator-at-large candidates.

The PFP has been steadily leaking people to the KMT for the last couple of years, but the loss of Danial Hwang -- Hwang Yi-chiao -- is a major one. Hwang has been Soong's right hand for many years, back to the days when Soong was Provincial Governor. Hwang had been spokesman for the PFP, had served as executive director of its policy committee in the months up to his switch.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [PFP] [media]

Cadet Sex Update

Last week I blogged on the tale of the Cadet Who Was Set Up by Sex. Such set-ups are routine here (anyone remember Chung Cheng-mo?). The postscript to the case is, of course, that the cadet was cleared of wrongdoing after the investigation.

A U.S. Military Academy cadet who was briefly investigated for possible sexual impropriety while studying in Taiwan has been exonerated by that country's military, according to news reports.

Taiwan's Central News Agency reported late last week that the cadet, who was on a three-week exchange program at the Republic of China Military Academy, did nothing wrong during a late-night encounter with a local woman.

The meeting between the woman and the West Point cadet was reportedly arranged by a cadet at the Taiwan military academy.

Taipei Times, an English-language daily, said the Army Command Headquarters has determined "the West Point cadet did not force the woman to do anything she did not want to do. As a result, we are of the opinion that the West Point cadet did nothing illegal."

A State Department official in Washington did not have any comment on the findings.

See why she didn't claim he raped her? That would have been a legal violation which might have had serious repercussions. And here's a bet: this woman will make the news again in a completely different but equally silly/bizarre context.

[Taiwan] [Tainan] [West Point] [PFP] [media]

The Cadet Set Up

"Never mind. You've proved who killed Cock Robin and I don't expect a still-moist kaydet to know all the tricks. But listen and learn."

The other day, May 31st, the Taipei Times reported on the woman who felt uncomfortable after having consensual intercourse with a West Point cadet here in Taiwan on an exchange program.....

The Chinese-language United Daily News, a pro-unification newspaper, printed front page coverage of allegations by an unidentified woman who said she had sex with a visiting student from the US Military Academy at West Point. In the article, the woman did not make any specific claims that the man raped her, but said she felt "uncomfortable" after the hotel room tryst.

The United Daily News reported that a student surnamed Chuang (莊) from the Republic of China (ROC) Military Academy had brought the West Point cadet to a nightclub in Tainan City on Friday night.

The West Point cadet, who will be not identified because he has not been charged with any crime, was in Taiwan on a three-week exchange program.

The trope here of They're Rogering Our Women! is a commonly encountered one for foreigners in Taiwan. Predictably, legislators blamed the government...

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Nan-sheng (林南生), while waving a copy of the United Daily News in the legislature's National Defense Committee, said that Taiwan had lost face because the country did not react in the same way as Japan or South Korea did when there was an incident involving US military personnel.

He blamed the Ministry of National Defense (MND) and, more specifically, Vice Minister of National Defense Lin Chen-yi (林鎮夷) -- who was attending the committee meeting -- for the alleged incident.

"Shame on you, vice minister!" Lin Nan-sheng said.

Echoing Lin Nan-sheng, KMT Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁芳) said that he did not understand how the MND had dealt with the matter, implying that Taiwan was allowing foreign soldiers to run rampant on its shores.

"So, is this how you treat West Point cadets? Maybe it is also the same way you treat any soldier from one of our allies?" Lin Yu-fang said. "This is absurd! This is a shame! This is a disgrace!"

Just your basic shallow one-day scandal, right?

Wrong.

It was obvious to me when I saw the story that whole thing was a set up. As the Taipei Times pointed out, the lad spoke no local languages and had only been in Taiwan a couple of weeks, but nevertheless he got a taxi, set himself up in a hotel room and arranged a tryst. Had it been some working girl who hadn't been paid for her efforts, there would have been no story, except something like Cadet Worked Over With Baseball Bats. Nope, this one barked set up! from the get-go. However, I puzzled over just what the set up was aimed at.

It's important to keep in mind that when legislators go nutso it is on purpose and with malice aforethought. Taiwan legislators are completely rational and the fights, indignant attacks, and craziness one sees is political theatre aimed at local voters. The screaming legislator, Lin Yu-fang, from the PFP, has long taken an interest in military affairs. His vapid overreaction was the first clue that something was not right. Satirist Johnny Neihu provided the second clue today about how 60 seconds of sex turned a cadet into a celebrity:

Woe betide the military foreign exchange student who sleeps with the female buddy of a Taiwanese reporter and doesn't call her back.

A source at the United Daily News (UDN) told NewsWatch that the UDN reporter who broke the story about Ms. D -- a woman in Tainan who showed an American cadet from West Point what US-Taiwan "direct links" are really all about -- just happens to be an old acquaintance of Ms. D.

Coincidence? I think not. United Daily News (UDN) is a fanatically pro-Blue paper. Why this story, now? The answer, as a knowledgeable friend pointed out to me, is simple: a few days previously, on May 27, a Taiwanese woman became the first Asian female to graduate from West Point.

Hung Wan-ting (洪琬婷), a second lieutenant with Taiwan's Chinese Military Academy, will become the first Taiwanese -- and Asian -- woman to graduate from the US Military Academy at West Point on Saturday after four years of training, said a Central News Agency (CNA) report yesterday.

A series of celebrating events have taken place on Thursday and Friday in the lead up to yesterday's graduation.

Of the approximately 1,000 graduates, 40 of those included foreign students coming from 27 countries and Hung was one of them.

Good news for Taiwan, and for the Ministry of Defense. That good news reflects well on the ruling DPP. Can't have that, can we!? So a scandal was quickly hatched -- a white foreign West Pointer was picked -- and visceral appeals made. The result? Good news for the ruling party blunted, West Point smeared, and some bewildered future American officer got a black mark at the start of his career.

UPDATE: Maoman has some fantastic comments below, at the bottom.

UPDATE: June 5. A Liberty Times letter has more details.

且根據該五星級飯店的櫃台服務人員及接待人員證實，是Ｄ女辦理住房登記手續，且酒店除了住宿房間內，均裝有偵攝錄影器，據實情得知，兩人在電梯裡就已經天 雷勾動地火熱情演出，凌晨二點多Ｄ女先行離開酒店。此期間，Ｄ女的神情及意識都無異狀，所以Ｄ女要報案有的是機會，硬拗被莊同學設計酒醉昏迷遭到性侵害， 不免漏洞百出，更難以自圓其說。撇開軍人身分不談，成年男女間的「男歡女愛」是出自「妳情我願」的需求時，又何勞外人置喙呢。

Hotel staff say she wasn't intoxicated, and security video shows they were already going at it hot-n-heavy in the elevator. Also, online chat records show she was totally willing participant. .

[Taiwan] [Tainan] [West Point] [PFP] [media]

Ma-Wang Negotiations Ongoing

As everyone knows by now, former Taipei Mayor, Minister of Justice, and KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has gone from being just an ordinary jeou to being the candidate of the KMT for the Presidency of Taiwan.

Ma now faces the problem of what to do with two important rivals, Wang Jin-pyng, the current legislative speaker of the KMT and once a long-shot Presidential candidate, and James Soong, the Chairman of the junior People First Party (PFP). Recent news articles have described Ma's attempts to open negotiations with Wang:

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) yesterday said he will meet with Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) by next week in an effort to seek Wang's cooperation as soon as possible.

"I was nominated by the party as the presidential candidate. The Ma-Wang meeting should not be delayed any longer," Ma said yesterday in an interview with TVBS.

Pledging to meet with Wang by next week, Ma said he would like to carry out his promise to invite Wang to be his running mate, and sort out the issue as soon as possible.

"I think the [Ma-Wang ticket] issue is not what people care about the most. I hope to visit Speaker Wang as soon as possible," he said.

Ma has repeatedly stated that he wants Wang to be his Veep, but Wang bears Ma a deep grudge dating back to the Chairmanship election in 2005. Readers may recall that Wang is close to Honorary Chairman Lien Chan, who blasted Ma in the Chairmanship election. Ma then went on to defeat Wang handily after accusing him of vote buying. Veteran Taiwan watcher Lawrence Eyton described Ma's victory thusly:

Ma was widely touted by the media as the favorite, but he was certainly a very odd favorite. When the vote took place, three quarters of the party's legislators, many high-level party officials such as central executive committee head Chang Che-shen and more than 100 retired generals - the KMT is traditionally strong in the military - had thrown their support behind Wang.

What does Wang want? He wouldn't take a vice-chairmanship position before -- which he must be kicking himself about, because if he had been vice chairman when Ma was indicted, he might well have become Chairman. Instead Wu Po-hsiung, a Ma supporter, is the KMT Chair. What does Wang want? Who can tell? And if Wang won't run with Ma, who will Ma pick? I'd pick a femme, but you never know what might happen.

Meanwhile James Soong is back from brooding in America and is now assessing his position. The KMT and the PFP are negotiating over what districts each party will field candidates in (see A-gu for current count). One very powerful piece of leverage available to the PFP is James Soong running for President on a PFP ballot, splitting the Blue vote again. In the December 2006 mayoral election in Taipei Soong garnered just 9% of the vote, an indication that his popularity is on the wane in the heavily Blue and mainlander city. Yet Soong is widely popular around the island. His stint as Provincial Governor enabled him to visit every town in Taiwan, and he learned Taiwanese so as to better connect with the voters. He is a canny politician with a strong populist touch and a "make the trains run on time" reputation. In an election almost certain to be decided by under 5% of the vote, and probably less than 3%, the presence of Soong could have a powerful, negative impact on the Blues. That gives him tremendous leverage in negotiations over the status of the PFP.

Lotsa fun looking ahead to the 2008 Presidential race.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [Ma Ying-jeou] [James Soong] [Wang Jin-pyng] ['08 Presidential Election]

Bill of MAttainder

No Bill of Attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed. -- US Constitution, Article I, Section 9; Clause 3

Wiki has some interesting comments on the passage of bills aimed at declaring the actions of specific persons illegal....

A bill of attainder (also known as an act or writ of attainder) is an act of legislature declaring a person or group of persons guilty of some crime, and punishing them, without benefit of a trial. The United States Constitution forbids both the federal and state governments from enacting bills of attainder, in Article 1, Sections 9 and 10, respectively. It was considered an excess or abuse of the British monarchy and Parliament.

The reason we outlaw ex post facto laws aimed at individuals is precisely because they are widely recognized as tyrannical. Not only do they impair separation of powers, since through them the legislature usurps the function of the judiciary, they also eliminate due process, in that they declare an individual guilty and his person forfeit to the state without the benefit of trial.

Yet the DPP is busy pursuing an essentially similar bill right at the moment....

The Legislature is expected to debate Friday on a proposal that seeks to bar corrupt politicians from running for president -- a bill widely considered targeted against former Kuomintang Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who is being tried for corruption and is planning to run for president.

The so-called "Ma Ying-jeou Bill" seeks to ban people from becoming presidential or vice presidential candidates after they are convicted of corruption. The ban will be in place until they are eventually vindicated.

The Legislative Rules Committee put the bill on the agenda of the Friday plenary session of the Legislature after Kuomintang lawmakers were outvoted by their Democratic Progressive Party counterparts Tuesday.

The KMT deputies lost the vote on the DPP-initiated bill as their allies from The People First Party played no show at the meeting of the Rules Committee, which is in charge of scheduling reviews of bills.

DPP whip Legislator Chen Chin-der said the party will mobilize all of its lawmakers to the Friday session, and they will respect whatever decision their PFP colleagues may make.

The current law holds that a person may be barred from standing for office after conviction only after his appeals have run out. But the DPP wants to change the law to make the initial conviction sufficient. Once convicted, regardless of the status of the appeal, an individual would not be able to run for President.

The bill is obviously aimed at Ma Ying-jeou, who is obviously guilty, for the special funds money is obviously in his accounts and obviously has been piling up for eight years, the reason he has been able to live apparently beyond his means. Ma is almost certain to be convicted, though no doubt his Blue pals in the judiciary and prosecutorial offices -- which are heavily Blue -- will get him off with a light sentence.

The political unwisdom of this move is also obvious, but it is worth reviewing. There are two issues here. First, the bill itself is manifestly unfair, and to the extent that it is unfair, it is undemocratic. Worse, it sets a poor precedent for the future, when the DPP may have less control over the legislature. Worst of all, it arrogates more power to a legislative body that already has far too much power and is seeking to usurp the functions of other parts of the government. Fortunately this law will never be passed, but DPP support sets an awful precedent that reflects negatively on the Party.

The second issue is more interesting. I am pretty confident that Ma can be beat, and so are many others (I know something you don't know, nyah, nyah, nyah). For Pete's sake -- the DPP ought to welcome a run by Ma, which they can use to highlight the simple fact that the KMT will never let a Taiwanese stand for high office and is a party run by and for the power of a core of mainlander elites, instead of for the whole island, committed to a future of subservience to China. Ma is an ideal opponent because he perfectly complements the DPP's program of identity politics ("Do you want to elect the man China wants in power?").

The likely alternatives to Ma are either Lien Chan, a ban shan ('half-mountain,' a derisive reference to Taiwanese collaborators who followed the 'central mountain,' Chiang Kai-shek) who was born on the mainland but comes from a Taiwanese background, and Wang Jyn-ping, who is a longshot but is an islander who has already publicly complained about the fact that the KMT is run by and for the mainlander core. Lien will be no problem to beat, but for that reason he will probably not be put forward, so the party candidacy will probably default to Wang -- Taiwanese vs. Taiwanese. That might be good for Taiwan -- both sides might then have to put forward actual public policies, not merely programs that involve spraying concrete all over the countryside -- but then the DPP would have a harder time nullifying the KMT's cash advantages by appeals to ethnicity. And this election, I suspect, there will be quite a lot of Chinese money involved. Moreover, Wang is very well connected with the KMT's 'southern' (read Taiwanese) legislators -- the DPP's traditional area of strength -- whereas Ma's base is in the north, where he robs no votes from DPP areas.

The DPP's move against Ma shows a petty vindictiveness and a lack of confidence. The party of progress and democracy ought instead to be calling for a big-hearted amnesty for all victims of this law, and an end to the Special Funds. Ma has already been proven to be a crook and a pathetic one at that; let's not belabor the point and turn him into a martyr.

[Taiwan] [DPP] [TVBS] [China] [KMT] [Ma Ying-jeou] [PFP]

KMT: the Past into the Future

The election for the new Chairman of the KMT ended in victory for Wu Po-hsiung, the former vice chair. Wu is now believed to be Ma Ying-jeou's man, prompting Ma's main rival, Speaker of the Legislature and longtime party insider Wang Jin-pyng to threaten hell and damnation:

In the wake of the KMT chairmanship by-election, Wang, in a statement, not only congratulated newly-elected KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung on his victory, but warned that any proposal that would allow the KMT to nominate a convicted KMT member in the 2008 presidential race will split the party into rival fractions.

The threat to split the party has been latent since the ascension of Ma, who has cultivated the so-called "Ma troop" since his rise to the Chairmanship:

Ma has faced continuous speculation that his relationships with former chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), as well as People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) are problematic. His dependence on the opinions of the so-called "Ma troop," which refers to the chairman's top aides and followers, including Taipei Deputy Mayor King Pu-tsung (金溥聰), KMT Legislator Wu Yu-sheng (吳育昇) and Lai Shyh-bao (賴士葆), have sparked resentment among some party members.

"This is making it hard for other people's voices to be heard," KMT Legislator Shyu Jong-shyoung (徐中雄) said, questioning Ma's shift in decision-making power from the party's Central Standing Committee to his top aides.

Lin Huo-wang (林火旺), a National Taiwan University professor, also warned that the existence of the "Ma troop" would hurt the chairman and the party.

"The KMT chairman should be the chairman of all party members, instead of a certain group of people," he said.

Both Wang Yeh-li and Sheng suggested that Ma could be more humble as the opposition leader in seeking party harmony and pan-blue unity.

Wang is the leader of the "southern legislators" -- the Taiwanese KMT. The threat to split the KMT is essentially a threat to take the Taiwanese KMT and go. Last year I thought perhaps the party insiders would wrest the Party back from Ma, but it looks like Ma has managed to ensure that more of his people will be made legislators. A longtime local reporter I talked to yesterday interpreted Wu's support for Ma as an act of revenge against the Party elites. In the late 1980s Wu had looked as though he was slated for Provincial Governor or even higher posts, but then President Lee Teng-hui passed him over in favor of other politicians. In the end, when the KMT revoked Lee's membership, Wu sided with the mainlander ideologues against him. This mainlander-Hakka alliance is an important one in the ethnic coalition the KMT has built to oppose control of the island by the Hoklos.

Ordinarily Wang's threats would lack weight, but with the legislature shrinking, many legislators are going to be out of a job -- and with Ma's man running the show, those jobless legislators are going to have a disproportion of Wang supporters. The Taiwanese KMTers have been disgruntled for a year now. The threat to split the KMT is not an idle one.

Wang is close to PFP Chairman James Soong, whom the local media is reporting is due to return to Taiwan momentarily.

The chairman of the People's First Party James Soong (宋楚瑜) is expected to Taiwan tomorrow after a four-month respite in the United States, PFP lawmaker Hwang Yih-jiau said yesterday, saying the purpose of Soong's return is to boost cooperation between the PFP and the Kuomintang.

Wang and Ma have a preliminary agreement that one will be the other's running mate regardless of who is ultimately chosen for the Presidential candidacy. Chairman Wu is reported to be arranging another meeting between Lien, Wang, and Ma, before Chairman-for-Life Lien Chen goes to China to sell out Taiwan for an economic forum later this month.

How does Soong play here? In 2000 Soong left the KMT to run independently in the Presidential election, barely losing to Chen Shui-bian, 39% to 36%. The following year he founded a breakaway Blue party, the People First Party (PFP). Originally the PFP was supposed to be a home for disaffected ethnic Taiwanese (Hoklo) and Hakka politicians who wanted places in the legislature. The KMT was facing a predicted shrinkage in its share of the legislature. According to John Tkacik, one reason President Lee started the TSU was to poach ethnic Taiwanese legislative candidates from the PFP, and hamstring its legislative clout.

The parallel to the current stage is pretty clear. Again, the legislature is shrinking and the ethnic Taiwanese (Hoklo) legislators from the KMT are looking at thin times. Some have actually threatened to go over to the DPP just to compete for seats. The last time around, high-handed leadership in the KMT resulted in an independent Presidential bid and the eventual formation of a rival political party. This time?

"When the gruel gets thin, the knives get sharper."

[Taiwan] [PFP] [Democracy] [DPP] [KMT] [James Soong] [Ma Ying-jeou]

Red Ants Rise from the Grave

He promised to stay in front of the Presidential Office until Chen stepped down. Then he went back on that, and promised to stay in an apartment near the train station until Chen's term was over. Now Shih Ming-teh, former democracy activist, former political prisoner, former Chairman of the DPP, and current tool of the pan-Blues, has promised to resume the anti-Chen demonstrations.

Anti-corruption campaign leader Shih Ming-teh (施明德) yesterday announced his "self-imprisonment" was finished and he was prepared to launch a second wave to force President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to step down.

With banners reading "The 'red-shirts brigade' will surge again" hanging in the background, Shih and several other campaign spokesmen yesterday afternoon held a press conference in Taipei City, announcing they are ready to re-launch rallies to ask Chen to resign.

The campaign added it will form a new political party to influence the year-end legislative elections if first lady Wu Shu-chen (吳淑珍) is convicted but Chen does not tender his resignation.

Shih reportedly said he will stick to the promise he made last year that he will not form a political party nor will he run in the legislative elections.

Just as with the demonstrations last year prior to mayoral elections in Taipei, the purpose of the pan-Blue Red Ants this time around is to affect the elections to be held at the end of the year. Of course, as the last two paragraphs note, Shih is breaking another promise. Not that his deluded followers will notice. Or care.

Who are the Red Ants? They are all Blues, turning out in droves for the anti-democracy demonstration that the Blues held the other day to protest the restoration of the word "Taiwan" to many local names, and the renaming of the Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial

Led by former KMT chairman and presidential hopeful Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and former KMT acting chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄), the protest traveled from Ketagalan Boulevard to Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall before returning to the boulevard.

Protesters, many of them wearing blue or red, carried portraits of Chiang and Sun Yat-sen (孫中山) and protest signs and waved national flags in the rally.

Last time around, there were a number of indications that Shih Ming-teh was a tool of pan-Blue heavyweight James Soong, the wily Chairman of the People First Party (PFP). Observers should take note that Shih said the best candidate for the Presidency was Wang Jin-pyng.

"The only one that seems to have a broader sense of forgiveness is Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平)," Shih said. But Shih added he is not sure about the chance of Wang winning the election ticket.

Wang is the main rival of Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT's anointed savior, and is also a good friend of PFP Chairman James Soong.

Shih has been the subject of protests and lawsuits from former followers. No doubt one motivation for the new campaign is to deflect attention from the complaints of disappointed former supporters -- which at the moment, seems to be about everyone who has ever worked with the man. I can't wait to see how the foreign media frames this.

Selected Blogposts on Shih
Backgrounder to the Shih Ming-teh anti-Chen protests (Dailykos)
Bradsher's excellent piece in the NYTimes
Soong and Shih -- connected?
WaPo, BBC poor work
BBC Bias
Linda Arrigo's Presentation on the Kaohsiung Incident of 1979
Shih Screws up Taipei and Subsequent Fallout

[Taiwan] [Shih Ming-deh/Shih Ming-te] [Taipei] [Chen Shui-bian] [DPP] [KMT] [PFP] [James Soong] [media]

Blue team picks vote buyer for Keelung Mayor Election

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and its spinoff kid brother, the People's First Party (PFP), jointly known as the pan-Blue coalition, have supposedly chosen Chang Tong-rong as their candidate for the Keelung Mayoral election necessitated by the death of Hsu Tai-li, the previous mayor. Chang is currently the speaker of the city council.

Hsu had been convicted in connection with shenanigans involving land deals, and the KMT, never one to miss continuing a tradition, decided that Keelung needed another lawbreaker as mayor:

Liu yesterday also questioned the fairness of the polls and reaffirmed his determination to run for the post. He said he could not believe that Keelung citizens had supported Chang, who was convicted of vote buying by the Supreme Court, to run for the mayoralty, and vowed to fight to the end of the election.

Despite the agreement to work together, the PFP candidate has not officially withdrawn, leading to threats to run separately. Apparently the KMT conducted the polls and then announced that that their man had won, violating an agreement between the two parties:

The PFP said that it had earlier agreed with the KMT to withhold the results of the polls temporarily so that the two parties could negotiate again in order to decide on a better way to jointly select a candidate for the election, citing concerns that the polls might be unfair.

PFP spokesman Lee Hung-chun (李鴻鈞) said that in spite of the opinion polls, the PFP will still support Liu, and criticized the KMT for its about face on withholding the poll results. He questioned KMT's sincerity in negotiating with the PFP and labeled the KMT as hypocritical.

The PFP, essentially the personal fief of former KMT heavyweight James Soong, who left the party to run for President in 2000 as an independent, and formed the PFP in 2001 after narrowly losing to the current President, Chen Shui-bian. Since the 2004 election, when a joint KMT-PFP ticket blew a 20 point advantage and lost by a whisker to Chen Shui-bian, the PFP has been in eclipse, and was blown out in the recent municipal city council and mayor elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung. It is likely that the KMT considers the PFP no longer a serious threat to poach Blue votes, since the once-popular James Soong garnered less than 10% of the vote in the Taipei mayor election in December, and judges that its junior partner can be ignored with impunity.

Keelung has traditionally been a KMT stronghold, and the DPP is fighting an uphill struggle even if the Blue votes split. In a country with stronger democratic traditions, a convicted vote buyer would probably not be picked as a candidate, and would probably not be voted in, but Taiwan's voters have demonstrated again and again their willingness to vote for openly corrupt public figures.

Chang Tong-rong is currently speaker of the city council. City council speaker is an extremely important position, a major figure in determining who gets what plum pieces of land and to what use it will be put. Thus it has traditionally been one of the most corrupt positions in local city governments. It goes without saying that the KMT's rules forbid running convicted lawbreakers for government posts, but the law has never been a serious impediment to local political behavior.....

[Taiwan] [James Soong] [KMT] [PFP] [Keelung]

Ma Wins, KMT Loses

Well he's tellin' us this
And he's tellin' us that
Changes it ev'ry day
Says it doesn't matter
Bases are loaded
And Casey's at bat
Playin' it play by play
Time to change the batter -- Joe Walsh

The Taiwan News put Green schadenfreude to page the other day with a long editorial applauding the stupidity of the KMT and the despair of the pro-Blue papers....

Frankly, it is a rare day on which we find editorials or columns in the rigidly "pro-blue" United Daily News or its affiliated United Evening News to be worthy of recommendation.

However, yesterday's issue of the latter publication offered two exceptions. In addition to the important front-page report on plans by the opposition Kuomintang to mandate in a hastily convened party congress the virtual elimination of any restrictions in its charter on members indicted, or even convicted, in first or second trials on corruption from running for office, the new rules will mandate that only a conviction on a third trial on corruption will make a KMT member ineligible for nomination, a proposed change which has already sparked clamoring by recently indicted or convicted KMT mayors and lawmakers for the return of their membership rights.

This report follows on the heels of Tuesday's decision by the KMT Central Standing Committee to cut the heart out of its new "anti-corruption clause" in order to give an after-the-fact whitewashing of the violation of party discipline by former KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who had earlier declared his candidacy for president just hours after being indicted on corruption charges related to allegations that he had embezzled into his own personnel bank account NT$11.18 million in public "special executive allowances" during his eight years as Taipei City mayor.

Who is the big loser in this affair? Well, the KMT itself. The central contradiction of the KMT's existence is the contradiction between its role as guardian of the identity of a colonial elite and repository of the Theology of Return (here and here) and its need to be a political party that passes legislation and wins elections. Nowhere has this contradiction been in greater evidence than in the Affaire de Ma. The Taiwan News went on to describe the editorials in the pro-Blue UDN (United Daily News) and UEN (United Evening News):

In relation to this story, the UEN carried a lead editorial entitled "The KMT Has No Other Options" and its "Cold Eye" column on "Reform Fails; The KMT is Just Like That" shed considerable light on Taiwan's current political situation.

The UEN's editorial pointed out that "Ma Ying-jeou is bigger than the KMT" and claimed, not necessarily accurately, that what the governing Democratic Progressive Party "fears is not 'the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou' but a "KMT with Ma Ying-jeou at its head."

Clearly reflecting the viewpoint of apologists for the indicted KMT leader, the editorial claimed that the KMT would "have no chance to resist being further swallowed up by the DPP if Ma Ying-jeou leaves the KMT."

"The KMT has no other options," concluded the editorial. "If the KMT does not plan to hand Taiwan's future over to the DPP, the KMT must create conditions that will allow Ma Ying-jeou to remain in the KMT," namely remove all barriers to his presidential bid.

On the same second page, the UEN's "Cold Eye" column admitted that the result of the blitzkreig dumping of the party's anti-corruption clause was tantamount to the failure of Ma's faltering drive to "whitewash" the KMT and represented the "kidnapping of inner party democracy."

According to the UEN, the KMT is "returning to its old road and thus "destroying a party and saving a person," namely Ma Ying-jeou, through the revival of the KMT's "evil culture," including the revival of habits such as "stirring up myriads of people to support the emperor" and "guessing the intention of superiors and catering to the rich and powerful."

The reason only Ma can save the KMT is because he is a mainlander, born in Hong Kong in 1949, and taken into the Chiang's inner circles when he became the English secretary to the dictator Chiang Ching-kuo in the early 1980s. Thus, in some ethereal way, the Chiang charisma has rubbed off on Ma -- one reason the KMT has been squabbling for more than a decade is because the Chiang charisma has not appeared to descend to anyone.

The irony of the KMT's recent spat of rule revisions is that a probable winner is already at hand...

Based on the UEN's reports and analysis, it is clear that the overwhelming majority of the KMT leadership has resolved to ignore the plea by KMT Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng that the KMT should have confidence to maintain a high moral standard and "not let the people feel that the KMT is a party of degenerate morality."

Wang Jin-pyng, the popular Taiwanese politician, speaker of the legislature, and KMT insider, would probably have a better chance of winning as KMT candidate than Ma. Not only is he a native Taiwanese, he is also close to PFP Chairman James Soong, the popular former KMT stalwart, who also claims to be the true heir to the Chiang regime (Wang was present to support Soong when he announced his candidacy for Taipei mayor). He is also respected by his opponents in the DPP. But unfortunately Wang is not a mainlander and the Deep Blues, for whom voting KMT is a religious obligation, will never accept him. Hence, the idea that only Ma can save the KMT.......

The recent rule revisions have, as UDN noted, put paid to any attempt to actually clean up the KMT. The revisions, which will probably permit members who had their membership revoked for corruption to return to the Party, giving the DPP much fodder for the upcoming legislative and presidential election. Although the Blues outnumber the Greens in the legislature, until recently, the DPP was the single largest party in the legislature. Look for a return to the campaigns of the late 1990s, when KMT corruption was a major problem for the then-ruling party. Only this time the corruption will seem petty -- stealing a few hundred thousand is chump change in a party that is alleged to have shaken down the French government for US$400 million. As Wiki notes of Ma:

In addition to those incidents that give rise to public doubt on his competency, Ma has also been criticized for his involvement in several alleged scandals. His filings for the compulsory financial disclosure shows that his household net worth increased by more than NT$43 million (US$1.3 million)between 1993 and 2004, at a rate irreconcilable with his living standards, his two daughters in Ivy League schools and his identified income sources. Ma dismissed the criticism with a quotable line: “I spend less than US$10 a day and I only have an old patched suit.”

It's a common claim among KMT supporters in Taipei that the DPP is incompetent because the sums it steals are so tiny. Now the same charge can be levelled at Ma Ying-jeou...

Only Ma can save the KMT? The corollary is that the KMT is thus secondary to the needs of Ma Ying-jeou. The KMT has just sent voters a powerful message. Let's see how they hear it.

[Taiwan] [Taipei] [PFP] [James Soong] [KMT] [Ma Ying-jeou] [Chen Shui-bian] [DPP] [Wang Jin-pyng] [media] [2008 Presidential Election]

Redrawing the legislature

An critically important event took place this week, with the major parties agreeing on the redistricting plan that is necessary to carry out the legislative elections slated for later this year. The pro-Green Taipei Times reported:

Electoral boundaries within four disputed cities and counties (Taipei and Taichung cities and Miaoli and Changhua counties) will be structured according to the original draft, while two other draws favored amendments presented by the Taiwan Solidarity Union (Taipei County) and the Democratic Progressive Party (Taoyuan County).

Boundaries within two other counties -- Kaohsiung County and Pingtung County -- will be altered based on cross-party interests.

"We deliberated on the redistribution but couldn't reach a compromise. Drawing lots was an acceptable way to resolve the dispute," Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) said after a four-hour meeting with Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) yesterday.

After their meeting, the legislature referred the compromise proposal to the CEC, which was required by law to promulgate the change by yesterday.

The next legislative elections, to be held in December, will mark a significant change in the nation's political landscape, with the number of seats reduced to 113 from 225.

The controversial "single-vote, multiple-member district" will be replaced by the "two-vote, single-member district" system, in which 73 electorates will be represented by one candidate each, with another 34 seats allotted to parties based on the proportion of votes received.

The other six seats are reserved for Aboriginal legislators, who formerly had eight reserved seats.

To recap, in 2005 the Constitution was altered, with the support of both major parties, to reduce the number of seats in the legislature. This is widely expected to gut the representation of the smaller parties in the legislature. With the number of seats falling to less than half, the pressure on the major parties to preserve seats for powerful legislators was immense. Fortunately the negotiations were carried out by KMT Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng and the DPP Premier, Su Tseng-chang, both of whom have a reputation for pragmatism. Wang is the powerful rival to the KMT's anointed presidential favorite, current party Chairman Ma Ying-jeou.

The redistricting issue had been a major latent constitutional crisis. During the fall of 2006 the PFP and certain elements in the KMT were talking about recalling the Premier and bringing down the government. Since the President can dissolve the legislature if the Premier is brought down, Taiwan would have had to hold new legislative elections -- but the districts had not been approved by the legislature. Hence, a severe constitutional crisis would have resulted. This has apparently been averted.

The Taipei Times complained about one of my favorite topics, the international media, whose Sauron-style eye fixes on Taiwan only when something related to China occurs....

The changes to the legislature and electoral districts will have a profound effect on the political system. No one, not even the major political parties, is able to predict what kind of legislature the December elections will bring to power.

First, half of all sitting legislators will lose their jobs, as the legislative seats will be slashed from 225 to 113. Next, many popular and prominent figures will be left on the street, because politicians must now compete with each other for first place, rather than being guaranteed a seat by earning a high number of votes. In addition, small political parties face a fight for their survival.

Why will any of this matter outside of Taiwan? Given the changes, it is possible that a party could win a legislative super-majority, enabling it to do all kinds of things, such as write a new constitution.

Or declare independence. Even the international media would notice that.

It's too early to say how the redistricting will favor the individual parties, except that it doesn't favor the little ones. The pro-KMT China Post reported the other day:

Meanwhile, faced with more competitive elections with greatly reduced seats, DPP Legislator Chen Chin-jun said the DPP has to work with the TSU, saying that if the TSU fields its own candidate in each constituency, it will impact the "pan-green camp."

KMT Legislator John Chiang estimated that the new scheme will be favorable to the major parties and that the KMT, which currently controls 90 seats in the 219-seat legislature, will garner two-thirds of the seats.

PFP Legislator Cheng Chin-Ling said her party and the KMT will have to meet next week at the latest to talk about fielding candidates, as the two parties will be soliciting support from the same voters.

In related development, Taoyuan County Magistrate Chu Li-lun said he regretted the result of the draw.

Chu said the initial redistricting scheme sent by the county to the CEC was based on Chungli and Taoyuan cities having the largest township-level cities in one constituency each, while the final version has cut more than 10 boroughs each from the two cities and has given them to other constituencies.

But Hsu Chung-wen, director of the DPP's Taoyuan branch, was elated, saying that the new scheme will finally break the KMT's traditional hold on the two cities and that the DPP will be able to win half of the six seats in Taoyuan County.

Premier Su warned that it is too soon to tell, but it is worth noting that prior to the spate of scandals last year, the DPP was the single largest party in the legislature, although the Blues retained an overall advantage. The Post noted in another article:

Ten out of the 15 cities and counties -- Yilan, Hsinchu, Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu counties as well as Hsinchu, Keelung, Chiayi cities will have only one seat, while Tainan city and Kaohsiung, Yunlin, Chiayi, Nantou counties each will have two constituencies with one seat in each of them.

Outside of the generally pro-KMT north, the redistricting plan appears to diminish KMT clout in certain areas. Yilan has long been a DPP stronghold, but Taitung, Hualien, Kinmen, and Matsu all tend to vote Blue. Compared to those, the southern areas of Kaohsiung, Yunlin, Chiayi, and Nantou did well, with two seats each. But by comparison with the north, the south appears to fare poorly -- there are a total of 12 legislators from Taipei county and 8 from Taipei. The aborigines tend to support the KMT as well, for historical reasons.

The 34 at-large seats will be apportioned to the parties based on their performance in the election -- if they win 75% of the seats, they will win 75% of the at-large seats. These seats will likely go to party insiders -- current legislative Speaker and KMT stalwart Wang Jin-pyng holds an at-large seat, appointed by party elites. Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has recently attempted to undercut the influence of KMT elites, who do not like him, by making the at-large seats democratically elected. The whole idea strikes me as wrongheaded -- the additional 34 seats should be used for more geographic representation, rather than awarded to the parties. They simply reinforce the impression that Taiwan's politics are all about politicians.

[Taiwan] [Taipei] [PFP] [KMT] [Ma Ying-jeou] [Democracy] [DPP] [corruption]