Wednesday, October 07, 2015

UPDATED BREAKING: Hung isn't giving up without a fight + Polls + KMT Congress

An old temple in Tunghsiao

BREAKING: KMT approves Party Congress on issue of getting rid of Hung. English report

As so many predicted, KMT Presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu is not going to let herself be ousted without a fight. The TT reports:
“I am sorry to have let news reports in the past two days worry my supporters. All of a sudden, what started off as a groundless rumor has become a serious issue. This is all because of my insufficient campaigning efforts,” Hung told an impromptu press conference held at KMT headquarters yesterday afternoon.


Stressing that she is reluctant to believe rumors that the party wants to replace her, the deputy legislative speaker said that the public has always loathed the KMT for its backroom deals, close-doored meetings and quid-pro-quo agreements.
This mess is not over. Tracking all the news flow the last couple of days has been amazing. At one point the media was reporting that Hung was threatening to release tapes she'd made of her talks with KMT Chairman Eric Chu -- later denied -- and Chu and Hung went at it in the media. Hard to tell what's going on because so often our Golden Retriever media here is basically Pravda crossed with The National Enquirer.

Today pro-unification (former) gangster Chang An-lo, AKA White Wolf, threatened to storm KMT HQ in support of Hung, forcing the deployment of police. There were many reports of Deep Blues saying they'd never vote for another candidate, and a friend said his office mates in his government office were characterizing an election slate with Chu instead of Hung as "two traitors and Tsai". The KMT divided on the issue of its own internal divisions: there's nothing like the KMT proposing dropping a candidate because she's... too KMT.

Klaus Bardenhagen sent around this video on Facebook of a pro-Hung demonstration today, where he said they first shouted "Eric Chu come out!" and then followed that with "Eric Chu step down!"

By keeping Hung in the race, the Deep Blue KMTers are saving the legislature... for the DPP. On Monday there were news reports that the KMT itself was saying the Party would find it difficult to make 22 seats. A longtime central Taiwan news reporter who has been following the election told me that he doesn't see the KMT winning a single seat south of Miaoli -- Taichung and Changhua are all going to other parties. Even if someone else runs for President, there won't be any great change in this.

Of course Eric Chu was saying he was ready to shoulder the burden of running if Hung drops out. This will not make him popular in New Taipei City -- he promised many times to serve out his term if elected. If he has to step down as mayor New Taipei City will be lost because its denizens will be angered by his betrayal. Don't forget, the City Formerly Known As Taipei County is the most populous in Taiwan. Already roughly half of it votes DPP and the KMT only won by a nose last time. And those angry citizens will be voting in the mayoral, presidential, and legislative elections.

Wang Jin-pyng, speaker of the legislature, rival of President Ma, and unofficial leader of the Taiwanese faction politicians on whose loyal service KMT power rests, keeps saying "I dunno" whenever he is asked about all this. Not a factor, at least publicly. Many KMTers have either left or are threatening to leave the party, or have decided not to run. As I noted a while back, Wang is finished after this election. Who will the faction politicians turn to then? sent the latest TISR tracking poll results around, saying "Neutral 36.8, Pan-Green 33.2 (DPP 26.7, TSU 0.5), Pan-Blue 27.6 (KMT 19.5, PFP 2.6)". The left hand shows the color, the right hand, the party ID. The long KMT slide continues as young people are moving into the OTHER or DPP camps.

This goes hand in hand with the latest poll from the pro-KMT TVBS station (images courtesy of @FormosaNation, which finds that nationally DPP presidential candidate Tsai is crushing Hung 46-21 and Tsai is winning in every region....

...even the north which is a traditional KMT stronghold. It's pretty obvious what this will mean for the legislative election.

Now waiting on Hung's Veep choice. Will she choose a local faction politician? Or will it be another Deep Blue ideologue like herself?

Does anyone even care? The damage that Ma Ying-jeou has done to the KMT is incalculable and permanent. I'm lovin' it.

PS: Thanks KMT for making a boring election interesting again, for a minute.

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Chaon said...

As I said on Twitter: This story can only get better if Xi Jinping makes Hung an honorary member of the CCP.

Mark S. said...

"Tsai is winning in every region"

There's nothing there about poll numbers for the east coast. It would be no surprise if Yilan votes green. But what about Hualian and Taidong? Will they jump over, even if Jinmen and Mazu likely never do?

Anonymous said...

Stressing that she is reluctant to believe rumors that the party wants to replace her...

Imagine her as president:

Stressing that she is reluctant to believe missiles have been fired from China....

Gerry said...

Another problem for Eric Chu in New Taipei City is the further delay to the Airport Express MRT line. After being delayed for years, it was due to open in December. That would have meant the election taking place while hundreds of thousands of people are are enjoying the month of free journeys which always accompanies these openings. It has now been delayed until some time in 2016.

I seem to remember the 2010 mayoral elections coinciding with opening of the orange line on the MRT.

jeremy said...

This mess is getting better everyday! why don't they just not bother to contest the election! Then Chu can stay in New Taipei City. Obviously it's now just a fight within the KMT. The question is what will be left of the party after this is over. Why didn't Chu just run to begin with! Now whatever happens, he's finished as well!

Anonymous said...

What about this new break-away party from the KMT? We're seeing lots of canvassers in our district of Zhonghe, as well as candidate banners and posters popping up here and in Yonghe.

Anonymous said...

People are suckers for underdog stories. I am worried that If Hung survives(politically), she might gain enough sympathy vote to qualify for per-vote subsidies, from wavering blues. I mean, I support the idea of per-vote subsidies for the real underdogs, not this privileged person who embodies the farce of KMT rationality and who has been playing the underdog cards on purpose since day 1 of the campaign. Not to mention voting for her will be voting for her radical ideas (if people vote for her, can we call them radical?). I mean, we don't always vote rationally, affect plays an important part too.

les said...

So what happens now to those KMT members who were kicked out for opposing Hung's candidacy and demanding her withdrawal? Are they now to be welcomed back to the fold?
Seems in KMT that neither prescience nor intelligence will protect your career, only your unblinking and unquestioning loyalty. OTOH, the loyal get screwed everyday.

And speaking of fights, who was it that was constantly blaming the greens for any and all political violence? And who's supporters was it that went straight out and fought with the police and damaged KMT property?

Carlos said...

I wonder if Chu announced that the KMT wouldn't use its own funds for the presidential campaign because he wanted Ma's candidate to fail.

Anonymous said...

This (the KMT's) is the worst election campaign in the history of the world! Who's running it? The DPP? Why don't they select Sean Lien? He has more chance now than Hong or Chu!

les said...

Haha. It was suggested that she choose the God-Pig as her running mate, to which she responded, "I'm not stupid!"

You really couldn't make this shit up.