The Importance of Taiwan

More beautiful clouds over the peaks of central Taiwan yesterday.

Julian Baum rocks the Christian Science Monitor with a great opinion piece on the importance of Taiwan and the Obama Administration's counterproductive, prestige-reducing policy in Asia:

Yang’s working assumption that Taiwan still has a role in US security policy in East Asia is correct, though it is sometimes disputed. And it points to why the denial of an effective air defense could ultimately be costly for the US. With shrinking resources across the vast US Pacific Command and geographically limited locations for its bases, the US military requires the full complement of Taiwan’s air patrols, intelligence gathering, and air combat capabilities.

This lethal combination of strategic confusion and accommodationist politics gives the appearance of Washington turning away from a fellow democracy as it drifts into the orbit of a hostile authoritarian state. That is not a reassuring message to our Asian allies and friends, old or new.

Regardless of how prosperous and newly influential China may be, the long history of US relations with Taiwan celebrates values that Beijing cannot deny. They include democratic institutions and a free society based on universal human rights and the rule of law. These place the island-nation among the most valuable members of the international community.

To throw away these values in favor of business-as-usual with Beijing is neither good policy nor smart diplomacy. And it is no way for the US to re-engage as a Pacific nation and win respect.

It's not just Taiwan; our Taiwan policy reflects on our Asia policy as a whole. It should also be noted that while attention is focused on the supply of arms to Taiwan for use against China in an invasion, that is NOT the only reason Taiwan may come into conflict with China. China is also trying to annex the entire South China Sea, an area in which Taiwan is intimately involved, and is also trying to steal the Senkakus from Japan. Taiwan could well find itself pulled into a conflict over those areas.

The contradictions that lie at the heart of America's Taiwan policy may be illustrated with a simple map:

See the problem? On all sides of Taiwan we are confronting Chinese expansion. Essentially, at this point, US policy appears to be to sell Taiwan to China and then go to war with China over uninhabited rocks in the South China Sea and the Senkakus. Washington needs to rethink its policy....because if Beijing's complaints worked to prevent F-16 sales, how do you think Beijing is going to treat, say, joint military exercises between Hanoi and Washington?
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

The Difference Between Media and Bloggers

Relaxing at 7-11 in Kenting with whiskey and cokes after a hard day of riding.

On the 15th, Reuters published this article on the low probability of F-16 sales to Taiwan. Though the article was mostly ok, there were a couple of things:

The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979 and recognizes Beijing's "one China" policy. But it is also Taiwan's biggest ally and arms supplier and is duty-bound by legislation to help the island in the event of attack.

This is a clear error; the US does not recognize Beijing's One China policy. The US "One China" policy doesn't include Taiwan.

Several of us dropped them a note to point this out.

There is some disagreement among us Taiwan supporters over how to interpret the TRA; a careful reading will show that it does not bind the US to anything in the event Taiwan is attacked. However, there is a widespread belief that the TRA does commit the US to helping Taiwan in the event of a Chinese assault; such beliefs may lead to miscalculation. Might also be the subject of a good investigative news report: what does the TRA actually mean?

Reuters also said:

Taiwan has repeatedly asked Washington to agree to sell it the advanced F-16 fighter jets, citing the need to counter the growing military strength of China, which views the island as a breakaway province.

Note that this is both biased and unbalanced. It is biased in that its report of China's desire to annex Taiwan is couched in Beijing's language: "breakaway province" though Taiwan was a province of a Manchu state for just nine years (terminating in 1895), was never entirely controlled by the Qing, and was never ruled by any ethnic Chinese emperor. Taiwan is not a "breakaway province" but a territory Beijing wants to annex based on a politically slanted reconstruction of history. Wouldn't it be better to take a neutral stance on how Beijing views Taiwan? ADDED: First anon below disagrees.

And the imbalance -- this rendition of The Formula also does not report how Taiwan feels about China -- shouldn't it have been balanced with a report that almost no one in Taiwan wants to be annexed to the PRC?

Skipping over the imbalances and interpretations, the error in the first paragraph noted above is quite clear. However, it has been three days now and still no fix in sight.

ADDED: maddog as always, has the right words

Here's the "One China" policy of the US as described on p. 3 of the August 4, 2011 CRS report [PDF]:
- - -
U.S. “One China” Policy
The United States has its own position on Taiwan’s status. Not recognizing the PRC’s claim over Taiwan nor Taiwan as a sovereign state, U.S. policy has considered Taiwan’s status as unsettled.

Let's see if they issue a correction.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

The looming war between the US and China continues to loom

Stupendously clear day in Miaoli yesterday.

Beijing is rebuffing efforts to set up crisis prevention protocols in the South China Sea, says the US. Oz reports:

"We have tried to make clear to China how important it is to put in place the institutions and policies to manage any incidents," said Kurt Campbell, the US State Department's senior official responsible for policy in Asia.

The US and Soviet Union put in place a number of agreements to contain Cold War mishaps from flaring into hot conflict, but China is declining all US approaches.

"We continue to underscore how important that is," Dr Campbell told the Herald in an interview. "More and more, Chinese and United States forces operate side by side. There's a need to have predictability on the high seas and above the high seas.''

China, which launched its first aircraft carrier last week, is increasingly asserting itself and has had mishaps and skirmishes with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and US in the last two years.

This rebuff is probably a violation of the Military Maritime Cooperation Agreement (MMCA) negotiated back during the Clinton Administration. I've heard that the quid pro quo for that agreement was the Clinton Administration's announcement of the 3 Noes on Taiwan. The obsession of the US with military contacts with China has led the nation into all sorts of foolishness.

Meanwhile on the South China Sea, a bunch of stuff this week. The Diplomat points out that the AirSea Battle concept touted by US military policymakers is probably a bad idea, expensive and may trigger nuclear exchanges. Foreign Policy has a photo tour of the South China Sea, while Robert Kaplan argues that the South China Sea is the future of war.

Once again, it behooves me to point out that you can't follow a policy of downgrading Taiwan while simultaneously upgrading your position in the South China Sea. Those policies contradict each other.
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Daily Links:

• 36 hidden secrets of Taiwan. Have you visited them?
• Brookings: China's military threat and Taiwan's countermeasures.
• Circling Taiwan by bike at Taiwan in Cycles
• Eyedoc discusses illegal immigration to Taiwan in the Qing era.
• Almost Home Taiwan: documentary about a family reunited after two decades

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Fun with Local Politics

Yes, election season is upon us, and local officialdom is providing plenty of diversions for our entertainment.

桃園縣平鎮市長陳萬得原獲國民黨提名，將參選桃園縣第5選區（平鎮市、龍潭鄉）立委，但疑似涉入房地產恐嚇糾紛遭到起訴，他已建請國民黨撤回立委提名。不過，陳萬得的妻子呂玉玲昨（26）日正式宣布，她將代夫出征。

It says that the KMT legislative candidate in Pingjzhen/Longtan in Taoyuan county, formerly the mayor of Pingzhen town, was more or less forced by his fellow KMTers to step aside after being indicted for irregularities in land deals. Naturally, his wife was put forward as the candidate, although another KMT politician has also been mentioned.

This wife-as-substitute-candidate is a frequent occurrence in local politics. For example, the Taitung County chief election from five years ago....

Kuang is the ex-wife of Wu Chun-li (吳俊立), a KMT member who was elected county commissioner last December, but was then suspended from his post immediately upon assuming office because of a corruption conviction.

Wu then divorced his wife, Kuang, in an attempt to sidestep restrictions preventing a commissioner from selecting a relative or spouse as deputy. Kuang then joined the KMT to run for the Taitung post.

Or the epic case of Fu Kun-chi, County Chief of Hualien, who "divorced" his wife and then appointed her his deputy for when he lost his position due to a corruption conviction.

Such cases highlight the clan and patronage networks that dominate local politics. Note that the Taitung and Hualien county chiefs were both big winners in the elections. Sometimes I get tired of reading that the public is tired of corruption; judging by the regular victories of corrupt politicians and parties, the public can't get enough of corruption.

Meanwhile, in our fair city of Taichung, Now News is reporting that our visionary mayor Jason Hu of the KMT scored another epic win for public order and decency when he sent around a memo this weekend to 14 police precincts telling them that convenience stores would no longer be permitted to have outside tables, since they may cause trouble with public order. I am sure he's not attempting to drum up business for local KTVs. If this really is seriously enforced, one has to wonder how it will affect the election.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Daily Links, Aug 15, 2011

What choices are out there today?

BLOGS:

• maddog with a great piece on the letter on Lee Teng-hui (boy did that issue disappear quickly from the public eye!).
• Drew's great ride report on his ride up to the Husun Forest Park. He wrote a really wonderful piece about me last week too. Thanks Drew!
• Another great piece at Taiwan Matters! on the effects of the stupid legislative reform, which punished the DPP and actually lowered its count of seats even though it increased its vote share. 
• Lao Ren Cha on the road, comparing solo travel in Taiwan and elsewhere. I'll miss your excellent posts on Taiwan while you're gone, LRC.
• ETRC on the recent slowdown in the local housing market. Note that prices still haven't fallen. 
• Sponge Bear on how China Post is aiding the KMT drive to assimilate the history of aboriginal resistance to Japanese rule into the KMT's mythological history of its own past.
• Jason looks at the DPP's struggle to formulate a cross-strait policy.
• Mad Minerva summarizes the Taiwan military response to China's carrier.
• Drew on Michael L H's inspiring ride in Changhua. Great job, Michael!
• CSS visits a rim maker.
• Echo on the hacking attack on the DPP
• 6.3% of drinks in Taipei contain traces of shit. Only 6.3%?
• Ben does Sanyi and Shengsing village, with pics.
• Frozen Garlic on the PFP and other small parties. I'm not quite believing it yet, but all appearances suggest that the PFP is going to seriously run against the KMT in this election. Soong also publicly stated he is more interested in running for President.
• Rare Salamander found in Yushan National Park.
• Dom's Picasa album of the 900 kms he biked around Taiwan this week. 

MEDIA:

• Audit of Taiwan's military: Missiles are out of date, military vehicles lack drivers: China Post
• Chinese scientists attempt to force Taiwan co-authors to subordinate Taiwan to China
• Pakistan gave China access to the crashed stealth helicopter from the Osama bin Laden raid.
• Taipei Times says the hacking attack on the DPP may be a potential Watergate. Apparently the hackers spoofed the RDEC and originated emails from there. The DPP claims the National Security Bureau working on behalf of the KMT carried them out. Read the whole article, it is quite interesting.
• Jens Kastner argue that star schools are a factor distorting Taipei's housing markets.
• In case you didn't notice, Taiwan-China-US relations have become stabilized. It will be interesting to see how long before our Establishment analysts start complaining that President Tsai Ing-wen is "destabilizing" relations between the US and China. Maybe I will start a pool.....
• WSJ column on the soft power clash between the Confucius Institutes and the Taiwan institutes. It must be galling to Ma and his Confucian ideological instincts that Beijing grabbed the name "Confucius Institutes" first. But here's how Taiwan builds soft power: 25 IT grads return to Gambia.
• Aviation Week: what the carrier means to China.
• NYTimes had a good article on China tourism in Taiwan. Linked again here, so many people liked it and sent it to me.
• Greenpeace rips Taiwan's overfishing of tuna stocks. 
• Jade of Wai Taiwan.com interviewed by TaiwaneseAmerican.org. Jade's experience of falling in love with Taiwan shows the real soft power of Taiwan.

CONTEST: The Taiwan Photo challenge. This week's theme is Colorful

RIDES: This week Thursday and Friday we are riding down from Taichung and up to Xitou to go over the 12 turns. Overnighting in Xitou.

WAY COOL: Fossil of pregnant plesiosaur found. Spend hours laughing at this stuff. Asia-Pacific Journal piece argues that the reactor at Fukushima was knocked out and melting down before the tsunami hit, with clear political implications. The claims of scientifically incompetent climate denialists that volcanoes pump more Co2 into the atmosphere than humans are utterly refuted by scientific reality. Not that the lying will stop, of course.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Bad News on F-16s =UPDATED=

Here's the deal: Defense News and the Taipei Times are both reporting a major military and symbolic blow to the island. We aren't getting the 66 F-16 C/D models that were requested under the Chen Administration. My readers always knew that, but more importantly, the upgrades of the existing F-16 A/B models will not be carried out in full. Only one of the two wings of the current group older aircraft will be upgraded.

Part of the issue is the conclusion in some circles that Chinese missiles would make short work of the fighters in the event of war. In any event China's advanced fighters, which outnumber all of Taiwan's fighters, are better than even the new/upgraded F-16s. Part of it also is the lack of funds for this in Taipei, a product in turn of the KMT's apparent program of weakening Taiwan's defenses. Ma of course never wanted the F-16s -- his party blocked them from reaching the floor of the legislature more than 60 times (yes, it is amazing how quickly that fact vanished from the media discourse once Ma became President. Also, remember Ma's promise to get military spending up to 3% of GDP?). But mostly, this decision appears to be driven by the Obama's Administration's fear of China and by the decline of the US since our purblind decisions to invade Iraq and Afghanistan. Had the Obama Administration taken even the tepid stand of insisting on refurbishing all the existing aircraft, the money could easily have been found. Instead we've handed our foreign policy off to Beijing.....

Even now it is not too late to give up our insane wars in the oil states and turn our hands to the future.

Ironically, the Obama Administration says US-Australia defense alliance will become more intimate. The contradictory position of the US is that it will hand over Taiwan to China but then beef up things elsewhere in anticipation of the coming war -- which could have been fought with Taiwan on the right side.

Perhaps the US simply seeks justification for pursuing a war strategy: "Look, we gave them Taiwan, but they still went on to claim _____." Or perhaps the US feels Taiwan will be more of a problem for Beijing within the fold than out. Or perhaps the US feels that by weakening Taiwan it can entice Beijing into attacking, creating moral justification for US intervention.

Or perhaps too many members of our policymaking class are doing business with China, and feel handing off Taipei will make Beijing turn up sweet.

AIT still denies that a decision has been made.

How will this play at home? The DPP might be able to make hay out of the KMT failure to protect the nation, and also out of how Ma hasn't restored good relations with the US. But the KMT could then retort that Taiwan now only has one realistic path, that of annexation, which the DPP isn't going to pursue.

Any way you look at it, this decision sends a powerful signal, not only to Taipei and Beijing, but also to Tokyo and other capitals in the region. Let's hope all this reporting is wrong and US officials are merely floating trial balloons....

ADDED: Gorden Chang on the US decision in Forbes.

Obama’s policy, as generous as it was, did not work. After China finally resumed relations—to the relief of American officials—General Chen Bingde, the chief of the PLA General Staff, came to Washington, where he arrogantly proceeded to lecture his hosts. He followed up last month’s performance by denouncing the United States in a 15-minute rant in front of our South Korean allies a few days later. The White House now seeks to avoid repeat shows of Chinese hostility.

Taiwan, however, needs the newer versions of the F-16 to defend itself. The Taiwan Relations Act essentially requires the United States to sell Taipei what it needs to do so. In the face of China’s arms buildup—the biggest and fastest in the world at this moment—Washington has lost the will to defend a democracy of 23 million people.

The Obama administration has no Taiwan policy—other than doing the minimum—so as not to enrage a “sensitive” China. The President should know better by now: his administration’s attempts to establish cooperative relations with Beijing in February and November 2009 directly led to increased Chinese aggressiveness. The first of those efforts—by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton—was immediately followed by an attack on an unarmed U.S. Navy reconnaissance vessel in international waters. The second—by then-National Security Council staffer Jeffrey Bader—came days before President Obama’s disastrous trip to Beijing.

One wonders to what extent China (and Taiwan) will become an issue in the US election.


UPDATE: The Patriot Pac IIIs approved by Obama in Jan of 2010 aren't coming either.

The United Daily News (UDN) cited military sources as saying that the Obama administration approved in January 2010 the sale of two additional Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC) III anti-missile systems to Taiwan, but the military has not yet signed the deal because the cost exceeds its budget by 40 percent.

The paper said the U.S. authorities have informed the military that if no progress is made on the project by the end of this year, the previously quoted prices for the systems would be invalidated and that the new prices could be even higher.

Because of the delay going back to the KMT refusal to permit the special arms purchase from being debated in the legislature, the cost of the missiles rose. The DPP needs to roast the KMT alive for this failure.

Nope, these missiles are on track!
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

King Dom of Kenting

Thursday morning I headed south to meet up with my friend Dom of Hold These Green Balloons who was swinging around to Kenting on a round-the-island tour, and my old friend and riding buddy Jeff Miller. Leaving Taichung on the HSR early in the morning, I knew from the clear skies that this was going to be an unusually good ride.

Links for a light blogging day

Biking....biking....biking.....

• J Michael reports that even the radar upgrades for the current F-16s are in doubt. No clear answers anywhere. What is Washington's problem? Don't even think about getting new F-16s. Perhaps we can start lobbying for other weapons....
• NYTimes article on Chinese tourists in Taiwan.
• Bloomberg has a great article on US professors blacklisted from entering China. The moral cowardice and greed of America's universities....sucks. Time for a link to Carsten Holtz's great piece in FEER a few years ago on the purchasing of academics by China.
• Control Yuan censures Taiwan's state-owned media.
• Huffpost has some nice time-lapse video of Taiwan. maddog points out it says it was shot in China. @#&$@*#&$
• CRS analysis says Taiwan is significant to the US.

EVENT: the Taiwan POW Camps Memorial Society is hosting an event Saturday, August 13th at the Taipei Film House - SPOT THEATER located at #18 Chungshan N. Road Sec.2 - (near the intersection of Chungshan N. Rd and Nanking West Road - the Chungshan MRT station is just around the corner from this venue.)
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Taiwan Travel Writers Cycle Tour

Info for those needing it

++++++++++++

--- [ PRESS Trip Announcement ]---

Taiwan Tourism Bureau is organizing the Cycling & Lifestyle press tour


The U.S. office of Taiwan Tourism Bureau (TTB) invites professional travel writers on assignment based in the U.S. to join their Nov. Cycling and Lifestyle Press Tour. The writer will be traveling in Taiwan for about 12 days (tentatively from Nov. 1 to Nov. 12, 2011). Please review the requirements before applying for a position on this trip.

--- Taiwan Cycling & Lifestyle PRESS TRIP FOR U.S. WRITERS ON ASSIGNMENT only--

The press tour will focus on introducing the coastal cycling/biking routes in Taiwan and offering participating press a personal experiences of Taiwanese healthy lifestyle - including hot spring/spa experience, Taiwan tea plantation visit, and Chinese herbal cooking and food tasting.

All participating writers will be attending the opening of annual road cycling tournament "Taiwan Cup" on Nov. 6th in Hua-Lien and have an opportunities to meet/interview with international cycling teams from the China, the U.S., Spain, France, Romania, Colombia, Norway, Australia, Netherland, Ukraine, Japan and Taiwan.

The adventurous tour will include one-day visit of the well-known Taiwan brand bicycle manufacture factory (Giant or Merida). Participating writers will be able to see the behind the scene detail of bicycle production process.

Taiwan cycling/biking & lifestyle tours are considered adventures at a level above, and the lodges we stay at are exquisite. Guests eat at superb restaurants in each trip area. Our daily activity is majestic and scenic. Our tours are catered to both beginners and intermediate adventurers.

REQUIREMENTS: To qualify to join Taiwan Cycling/biking & Lifestyle Press Tour on one of its world-class adventures, you must be a professional travel writer with a signed letter of assignment.

WHAT'S INCLUDED: TTB will cover writers' domestic and international round trip tickets, land costs, lodging and food for a qualified travel writer on assignment.

CONTACT: Travel writers meeting the requirement should contact Joyce Lu, joyce@intertrend.com
Joshua Samuel Brown
Author, Vignettes of Taiwan, Co-Author, Lonely Planet Taiwan 7, Belize 3, Singapore City Guide 8, Greater Mekong 2, Singapore Encounter 2, Central America on a Shoestring 7, Taiwan 8, Belize 4

Follow me online @ "Snarky Tofu" ~ http://josambro.blogspot.com/
USA Mobile ~ # 413 772 9468

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Low Blogging Forecast

Hope you're enjoying some meals out this week. I'm on the road until Monday, so probably won't be posting. See ya then!
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 [Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Tuesday Quickies.

Sorry, I'm busier than a nest of ants who've broken into a honey factory. Just want to mention a few items....

DPP politico Hsiao Bi-khim just broke the news on Facebook that three protesters protesting a rail line in Taoyuan were given a total of 21 years for their heinous use of freedom of expression. More on that tomorrow, I hope.

Harvard Prof blasts Taiwan academics. It's much worse than that; the system actively discriminates against interdisciplinary research, rewarding profs only for publications in what is designated as their field. It also downplays the importance of books and forces profs to attempt to publish in top journals. I could go on all day about how counterproductive the Taiwan system is.....but since its purpose is to accrue status to the university, not knowledge.....

Asia Times has a piece on the recent Open Letter to Ma Ying-jeou on the charges against Lee Teng-hui. The government's response this time has been quite different. As the article notes, last time they went on the offensive, saying some surpassingly stupid things in response. They also contacted many of the signatories privately. This time neither of those things is occurring. I think the government has hit upon the right move: ignore them and they'll go away. Only this time there were a lot more signatories than last time.

Taipei Times runs article headlined Jason Hu's disapproval rating tops 40%. If you read the text, his approval rating is over 50%. This smacks of spin. We're the good guys, TT, no need to indulge in that. Correctly note that Hu has majority approval.

Finally, this great commentary in the Taipei Times today highlights an important bit of history....

The reception given to the project at the originally planned location in the Lize (利澤) area of Yilan County’s Wujie Township (五結) was very different from what happened later in Mailiao. In December 1987, then-FPG chairman Wang Yung-ching (王永慶) took part in a televised debate with then-Yilan County commissioner Chen Ding-nan (陳定南).

Wang said that if Chen gave the go-ahead for the plant to be built in Yilan, it would be a highly ethical decision that would bring great benefits to the county. Chen, however, responded by saying that if he allowed the complex to be built in Yilan he would be blamed for generations to come for what he called a “criminal error.”

In view of the seven fires in one year at the plant in Yunlin, and the protests that have followed, one can well imagine how thankful Yilan residents must feel today about Chen’s decision not to let FPG build the plant in their county.

In the two decades since it was built, the sixth naptha cracker plant has not brought the promised prosperity to the area. Instead, it has brought the threat of cancer and other illnesses, as well as the menace of fires that can and have broken out at any time. However, over on the other side of the Jhuoshui River (濁水溪), in Changhua County’s Dacheng Township (大城), the government was until the beginning of this year still offering the same old lures of “jobs and prosperity” to try and persuade local residents to support the construction of an eighth naphtha cracker plant.

....imagine what Yilan would be like if that hopeless naptha cracker had been built there. Formosa Plastics appears to have reneged on its promises to Yunlin, if the county gov'ts claims are correct.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Can't find yourself? Can't find a job? Have I got the company for you!
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Ted Galen Carpenter ♥ Beijing and Wants to Solve Their Strategic Headaches for Them!

In 1938, at Munich, the British and French agreed to Hitler's demands on Czechoslovakia. Hitler's pretext for grabbing his neighbor's land was that ethnic Germans were being mistreated. The Franco-British capitulation on the Sudetenland stripped Czechoslovakia of its modern border defenses and left the nation defenseless. Later Hitler would swallow the rest.

Germany's acquisition of Czechoslovakia solved a number of headaches for Hitler. His generals had considered an invasion of Czechoslovakia a dubious proposition; Czech border defenses were first rate and its army modern and strong. Since Czechoslovakia had not been fought for, the occupation was uneventful and Hitler was quickly able to gain control, saving the Germans from the nastiness of a lingering post-invasion guerrilla conflict. Moreover, the bloodless invasion not only gave Hitler the massive Skoda arms works, one of Europe's largest and most modern arms makers, completely intact, but enough equipment and vehicles to outfit over three dozen divisions. During the 1939-42 period the Panzer 35 and 38 tanks were produced at Skoda (over 1400 supplied to the German war effort), and its sturdy chassis formed the basis for the notable Hetzer tank destroyer and other vehicles. Some authorities argue that Hitler probably could not have gone to war without this vast addition to his arsenal -- it also equipped Germany's Balkan allies, encouraging them to go to war as well.

Why am I telling this story? Because Ted Galen Carpenter has published another piece, another variation on his endless theme of Why The US Should Sell Out Taiwan. This variation is the claim that Taiwan is not an asset for the US. I've dealt with his misunderstanding of the problem of Taiwan before, the way he decontextualizes it (most recently) -- it is a problem of Chinese expansion that isn't going to go away if Taiwan is annexed to China -- but I just wanted to focus on another issue often ignored in discussions of Taiwan.

Taiwan isn't just a problem for the US; it is also a problem for China. Everyone focuses on how easy it would be for China to take Taiwan. Perhaps that may be true, but taking Taiwan is only half the problem -- it must be occupied and administrated as well. From that perspective Taiwan presents a vexing problem for Chinese authorities which will be neatly solved -- just as Czechoslovakia was solved for Hitler -- if China is permitted to annex Taiwan. Indeed, that is why the CCP looks to Ma Ying-jeou with such hope. The raving nationalists in China may call for the extermination of democracy supporters in Taiwan, but the people who crunch numbers and handle logistics know that is easier said than done. Yet the Sellout Crowd would solve this problem for the CCP.

Another thing that will drop into China's lap, intact, is Taiwan's massive arms manufacturing industry. The shameful embargo on arms sales by the democracies has forced Taiwan to manufacture all sorts of items it might otherwise have imported, from fighter jets to missiles to rifles. Think Beijing won't enjoy having access to all that, as well as Taiwan's computer capabilities in software, hardware, and hacking, along with the island's other hi-tech manufacturing facilities. And its weapons, tanks, aircraft, artillery, attack craft, missiles.... the list is endless.

And then there are the ports and airfields, including the base in the South China Sea. All handed over to Beijing. At no cost.

Of course, like Hitler, once the CCP is ensconced in Taiwan, it's on to the next set of projects, the Senkakus, the South China Sea, and Okinawa. Annexing Taiwan to China won't resolve those conflicts; instead Carpenter's "solution" would have the US committed to eventual conflict without the logistical, military, and moral support of an advanced economy with its own armed forces, right on China's doorstep.

Taiwan is not a security liability as Carpenter asserts. It is an asset that, properly exploited, can be helpful in the coming conflicts that Chinese expansionism is bound to provoke. At present, by offering a thorny strategic problem for Chinese analysts to solve, Taiwan serves the important role of tying up Chinese resources and attention that would be freed up to cause problems elsewhere, as well as offering a democratic alternative in the Chinese cultural sphere that is an implicit critique of CCP rule and an inspiration to its enemies.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Republican candidates and their China Business Connections

The Cable at Foreign Policy has the skinny on a clash between Huntsman and Romney over their respective China businesses:

Bain Capital, the firm that Romney founded, has been active for years in trying to help Chinese corporations acquire U.S. technology firms. In 2005, Bain teamed up with Haier Group, China's largest appliance maker, and private equity firm Blackstone Group in a failed attempt to acquire Maytag for more than $1 billion. In 2007, Bain joined Huawei Technologies in an attempt to acquire 3Com for $2.2 billion in cash, but later abandoned the deal because it could not satisfy the objections of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The CFIUS review board was concerned because 3com makes hacking software for the U.S. military and Huawei has ties to the Chnese military.

Ugly, eh? But.... Romney left Bain in 1999. Meanwhile, there's Huntsman:

Last week, The Washington Post reported that Huntsman's company has reduced its workforce in the United States and it moving its "center of gravity" to Asia. His father, Jon Huntsman, Sr., founded the multibillion-dollar chemical company. According to Hunstman Corps' 2010 annual financial report, the company has numerous holdings in China, several joint ventures with Chinese firms, and owns exactly 20 Chinese subsidiaries.

Not much more to say. A huge problem with US China policy is that too many people involved in it are also involved in China businesses.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Latest China Times & DPP Polls

The latest China Times poll offers two versions, one with Soong, one without. In Ma vs Tsai, Ma is up 33.5 to 29.2. Adding Soong, it's 33.0 to 28.6 to 10.0.

A poll in which 30% of respondents don't answer isn't very useful.

UDN editorialized on the situation a few days ago:

President Ma Ying-jeou was campaigning around rural areas when he accidentally found out that a fire had erupted in his backyard -- James Soong's tiny People First Party (PFP) -- which used to be a solid part of the ruling KMT-led "pan-blue" camp -- has vowed to win enough seats to form a legislative caucus and even Soong himself has hinted that he might enter the presidential race.

......

Unfortunately, Ma has not perceived that the real problem facing him is not the PFP defection. Rather, it is the issue of political wisdom and campaigning schemes.

Ma has not perceived the crisis that he is losing the trust of some two million "pan-blue" voters, who, according to the PFP, are wavering in their support, providing nutrition to milk the PFP's defection bid.

Another Ma crisis is that he has spent most of his time on "low politics," or economic and social welfare issues at the grassroots level, instead of "high politics" that relate to political power and morale on the national level.

......

He may not know that he is risking losing the votes of some two million potential waverers, who include the "social elite," opinion leaders and his former staunch supporters.

Instead of worrying about the price of rice wine, Ma should spend more time sorting out why he is losing the trust of swing voters.

Soong is not Ma's problem. Ma's problem is that he does not know what exactly disappointed voters are fretting about with regard to his presidency.

The issue for UDN is Ma's campaign, not his policies. But UDN vastly exaggerates; there aren't 2 million PFP votes out there; the last time the PFP got that many votes was in 2001; by 2004 this had fallen to 1.3 million. In the most recent election the KMT recouped almost all the votes, seats, and politicians it had lost to the PFP. Disaffected Blues might vote Soong, but surely everyone must know a Soong vote is a wasted vote. Perhaps the China Times poll above shows he'll attract merely the anti-Ma Blue votes that wouldn't have gone for Ma anyway.

The DPP released poll results this week that have Ma and Tsai neck and neck at 49.9 and 50.1. Believe at your own risk.
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Daily Links

• UN serves Chinese expansionism: UNESCAP lists Taiwan ECFA as Taiwan, POC
• China is now Brazil's biggest trade partner. Meanwhile the US is going to go into another recession. Great policy move there, Washington, way to look forward. That will really help us curb China's influence. 
• Japan criticizes China's completely unnecessary naval build up, Beijing lashes out.
• The KMT's policy at present is to subsume Taiwan's culture into Chinese culture as "Chinese culture with Taiwanese characteristics." It is also attempting to absorb Taiwanese heroes into the KMT Whig history narrative.
• Russian permafrost to shrivel by a third by 2050 -- releasing all that trapped methane. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.