The Latest Fad: Glasses w/o lenses

What's wrong with this picture? Yes, one encounters them everywhere. Over the last year or so a new fad has emerged: people wearing glasses without lenses. I suppose it's harmless -- it's not lethal like those witch shoes that were popular five years ago, nor offensive like the Great Butt Crack Plague of 2006-7. But....couldn't we have a more reasonable fad? Maybe one memorizing English vocabulary, or a foreign policy fad? Or a pick up litter fad? Or....
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

China, Japan Defense Forces, and Yoniguni

The New York Times ran a piece this week about changes coming to the nearby Yonaguni island. In addition to its fame for being the putative East Asian Atlantis (good pics here), Yonaguni is the closest island to the Senkakus, a target of Chinese expansion, and as a result of China's rise, they are getting a garrison......

This put Yonaguni and its 1,600 mostly aging residents uncomfortably close to a bruising diplomatic showdown with Beijing last September over a Chinese trawler detained near the Senkakus, which resulted in Tokyo’s backing down. The government of Prime Minister Naoto Kan has since vowed to beef up defenses for Japan’s “outlying islands,” and it appears close to a decision on the small Yonaguni garrison, a plan that has been under discussion for years. “China keeps coming, and all we have protecting us now is a pair of pistols,” said Yonaguni’s mayor, Shukichi Hokama, referring to the two policemen who are the island’s only security presence.

But the deployment plan has created an uncharacteristic uproar on this normally sleepy island. A local election held in September, in the midst of the trawler standoff, turned into a bitterly fought referendum over whether to accept the garrison, with supporters winning four of the six town council seats up for grabs.

The supporters of the garrison, led by Mr. Hokama, say they hope the base brings not only peace of mind but also an influx of badly needed jobs and youthful residents, especially if the soldiers come with their families. They hope this will provide a lift for an economically depressed island that currently lacks either a high school or a hospital, and where the number of residents has fallen by 250, or almost 15 percent of the population, during the past decade alone.

Yonaguni had old connections to Taiwan during the Japanese period. This 2008 article points out that the island was looking for tourism from Taiwan:

Before World War II, when Taiwan was under Japanese control and there was no border between the two islands, Yonaguni was affluent and had a population of 4,000 to 5,000 who could freely visit Taiwan, about 110 km away.

......

"If we can function as a border, people and material goods from Taiwan, which has a population of 23 million, will come through Yonaguni, which has a history of sharing culture and of living within the sphere of Taiwan," said Chiyoki Tasato, head of the Hualien liaison office.

Currently each side is blaming the other for the fact that there are no flights between them, even though they are just ~100 kms apart.

The map above shows the proximity of Yonaguni to the Senkakus, and also another interesting fact: the closeness of the Japanese islands to Taiwan means that an attack on Taiwan from China that involves operations against the northeastern and eastern side of the island of Taiwan -- highly probable given the naval base at Suao -- will have to go through Japanese air and sea space. In December the US and Japan held a naval exercise aimed at a scenario in which they have to recover islands from an attacker who invaded and occupied them. Arthur Waldron, the longtime scholar and commentator on Taiwan affairs, observed in September:

Waldron said the Japanese-held Ryukyu Islands could effectively block any Chinese attempt to attack the east coast of Taiwan from the north.

“In case of conflict, the actual Taiwan Strait itself is likely to be impassable, as each side will have the ability to destroy just about anything that moves,” he wrote.

“This would mean that the only attack direction is from the southeast, which means passing to the east, north of the Philippines, at the point where the strait is widest, before turning to the north and east to gain access to Taiwan’s strategic east coast — with its high stone cliffs and very deep water, good for submarines,” Waldron said.

“My own view is that if the defender had good anti-ship missile capabilities, which according to some reports Taiwan does, this would be a very risky operation,” he said.

In their joint study, Holmes and Yoshihara said the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been making efforts to break out of the first island chain and operate freely in the Western Pacific, “either to threaten the east coast of Taiwan or for some other purpose.”

They add that occupying one or more of the Ryukyus offers one way for the PLAN to do so.

Held in Dec, the exercise was disrupted by the appearance of Russian aircraft.

Anyone want to go this summer? I'd love to charter a boat and visit Yonaguni island.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

New Year Riding

Last week the excellent weather over Chinese New Year was a veritable invitation from the Bike Gods to enjoy some of central Taiwan's superb rides. So off we went....

The Refuge by the Awesome Boston Paul

Yesterday I went out to check out the new home of The Refuge, a community of musicians and activists cared for by Boston Paul (Facebook). The Refuge is just opened and still a work in progress, but it looks like it is shaping up to be great. I was going to write a blog post about it, but then I learned that Trista over at The Wild East had done a much better job than I ever could have, and just this week too. I totally agree:the vegetarian curry pies are excellent, the atmosphere relaxed, and the music unique. Head out to Dongshan Paradise on Dongshan Road out of Taichung, and then follow the yellow sign by the gate.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

General Arrested for Spying

"Roy Bland: As a good socialist, I'm going where the money is. As a good capitalist, I'm sticking with the revolution because, if you can't beat it, spy on it!"

Huge news this week as the government of Taiwan arrested one of its generals for spying for China. Thursday the Taipei Times reported:

A general has been arrested over claims he spied for China, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced yesterday, as it scrambled to limit the damage from what it called the worst espionage case in 50 years.

Wang Ming-wo (王明我), acting director of the General Political Warfare Bureau, told a press conference yesterday that Major General Lo Hsien-che (羅賢哲), head of communications and electronic information at the Army Command Headquarters, was detained on Jan. 25.

Agents from national security bureaus and military prosecutors searched Lo’s office and room in the Army Command Headquarters and his residence and seized confidential documents, Wang said.

Wang said Lo was allegedly recruited by Chinese agents in 2004 in the middle of a 2002 to 2005 posting in Thailand, and could not have done much damage after returning to Taiwan.

Thailand is to Asia what Vienna was to Europe during the Cold War: the place where spy games are played.

Other articles noted:

Fisher said Lo’s arrest was only the latest espionage exposure in a mostly silent “war” extending back for almost four generations.

“General Lo’s case is deadly serious because he was in charge of what was to be Taiwan’s most important force multiplier in the event of war — the ‘Po Sheng’ or ‘Broad Victory’ digital multi-service command, control and intelligence system,” Fisher said.

“Po Sheng was intended to allow Taiwan’s armed forces to transition into the modern age of true joint warfare where different services can cooperate intimately for faster mission success,” he said.

WantChinaTimes, the rabidly pro-Beijing Taiwan newspaper, gleefully reported that military and intelligence ties with the US could be cut, basing their reporting on comments from the Taiwan representative office in Washington. But later reports stated that the case would not affect relations -- the F-16 sale has already been in suspended animation since the late Bush Administration, while current trade talks are stalled over -- yes, you're reading this correctly -- beef.

According to Chinese-language media reports, the US first knew about this case in July of last year, which implies that the US has had a while to prepare a response and minimize damage. The media reported that the general was lured into working for Beijing through the classic methods of sex and cash -- although he is a mainlander from a military family whose father came over with Chiang Kai-shek, there is no reason to place the blame for this one on ethnicity; no one really knows what goes on in the hearts of men who betray their own. WantChinaTimes passed on a tale that the general turned spy due to fear of thwarted promotion -- from a general who was involved in the assassination of writer Henry Liu in 1984! Remember, in spy cases dissinformation abounds.

The case quickly became a political football for intraparty politics as the DPP and KMT each accused the other's president of being at fault, as if Ma Ying-jeou and Chen Shui-bian hovered over the nation's generals, ensuring that they did not go over to China The Other Side. This was a case of the DPP falling into the KMT trap of engaging in petty political bullshit when it should be asking serious questions of the nation's leadership about the direction of defense and intelligence.

I don't think the case is indicative of anything -- high ranking officials will continue to change positions in both directions thanks to the lubricating effects of sex and cash -- but rather, highlights the apparent ongoing decline in the nation's defense and intelligence since Ma became President, as Far Eastern Potato notes (see below). Jens Kastner has written a number of articles broadly related to this theme, such as Taiwan's surveillance role in doubt. For more, see his blog, Taiwan Reports. Hopefully DPP Chairman Tsai will get out front and center on the direction of the nation's defense policies.

Meanwhile, in the absence of the DPP, the KMT papers are fulfilling the role of Loyal Opposition. A UDN piece commenting on the many recent issues, including the tiff over the 14 alleged fraudsters sent by Manila to China, observed as it ended:

既然強調中華民國是主權獨立國家，就該用實際行動要求北京正視這個事實，而不是苦等明知不存在的政治善意。

Since the Republic of China is a sovereign state, it should take practical action to demand that Beijing address this fact, rather than wait for political goodwill that you already know does not exist.

Ma and his advisors seem congenitally incapable of this, however.

NOTE: My thanks to all the intelligent commentary I read out there..

MEDIA: The New Times representation of The Formula:

China has more than 1,000 missiles along its southeast coast aimed at Taiwan, which was occupied by the Kuomintang military after it retreated to the island following the Communist takeover of China in 1949. Before President Ma took office in 2008 tensions between Beijing and Taipei ran high, when the governing Democratic Progressive Party enacted policies that appeared to move the island closer to formal independence.

The party has its strongest base in southern Taiwan, and its supporters are suspicious of moves toward reunification with the mainland, which some Kuomintang officials advocate. The United States government prefers that the status quo be maintained.

The first sentence there is excellent and should be in wider use. The use of "reunification" in the second paragraph is incorrect but this is certainly not as awful as the alternate universe AP constructs with its generic "split in 1949" Formula. The last paragraph was deleted in later versions of this article. UPDATE: D'oh! M reminds that Taiwan was occupied in 1945. First sentence still not up to par.

REF: An old Epoch Times piece on Chinese Honey traps. Don't miss Far Eastern Sweet Potato on the Ma Administration and this case:

Lo’s case is only the most recent in a series of military scandals to emerge since Ma launched his policy of engagement. What this means, to get back to my initial point, is that the young men and women who every day put their lives on the line to defend Taiwan are doing so amid the increasing likelihood that their entire system may have been compromised, so much so that in the event of war in the Taiwan Strait, their ability to counter Chinese aggression would be severely handicapped. Countless Taiwanese could be killed not because of lack of training or equipment, but because the Ma government looked the other way when, under the guise of “goodwill,” China stole national security secrets and dug holes in our system as termites would to a log. To allow the armed services to be thus undermined and to do nothing to remedy the situation — which is exactly what the Ma administration has been doing, in the name of warm relations — comes very close to treason.

This case is a reminder that Beijing will neither compromise nor cease until our democracy is snuffed out and Taiwan is annexed to its empire.
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Daily Links

• Major changes at the Tourism Bureau: Taiwan is now The Heart of Asia, David reports.
• Jon A with another great report, on the recent death penalty case and the issues it and the Hsichih trio raise.
• Tiasugar to freeze prices on staples
• Classical Chinese texts to be studied because they "build character", backlash ensues.
• Jerome Keating's next meet up is Feb 19, see sidebar under Hot! Hot! Hot!
• Asia and the Climate Crisis
• Asia's arms race from WSJ
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Commentary on Ma from here and there

Feb 10 brought two commentaries, one on Ma's Middle of the Road approach from the INPR in Taiwan, the other from across the Strait. First, on Ma's Middle of the Road Approach:

Perhaps, leaving aside the identity controversy is a temporary solution. However, the status of the state is left unresolved. Due to the fact that Ma simply froze the status quo, the society remains at the mindset when the DPP left the governing position: “Taiwan” and “China” are opposing concepts,and the Republic of China has not been fully integrated with Taiwan. In strengthening cross-Strait commercial relations, Ma proposed "three no's"—no unification during his term in office, no pursuit of de jure independence, and no use of force to resolve differences across the Strait. However, such policy did not ease the public’s concern regarding Taiwan’s future. Arguably, the DPP’s criticism of such policy is only to be expected. For the Pan-Blue camp, the middle path reflected in Ma’s policy lacks ideal and foresight. Effectively, the policy does not reflect the core value behind Republic of China nor does it incite enthusiasm within KMT’s staunch supporters, causing the incumbents to be out of touch with them.

From the recent polls regarding “independence or unification,” the size of Ma’s core supporters has experienced a significant decrease since assumption to power of Ma. Such decrease is greater than the one experienced by during the DPP rule before. Although the middle voters are hard to grasp, they are generally more critical of the governing parties, providing momentum behind the pendulum effect. From their perspective, the KMT presented a new image with the slogan of “We are Ready” two years ago. However, the administration records of Ma’s government for the past two years have been disappointing, falling short of their expectations. Accordingly, the middle voters are shifting toward the Pan-Green camp, and this is evident in the recent poll.

It is reasonable for the opposition, whichever party that may be, to pursue the middle road. The DPP downplayed its traditional platforms and portrayed itself as a rational and responsible party. It did not leave grounds for the KMT to attack. Due to the poor government performance coupled with its sensible proposals, the DPP gained the support of voters in the middle ground. Interestingly, the KMT also pursued the middle road despite such strategy was unfavorable to itself. KMT believed that the policy that was successful two years ago in winning the Legislative Yuan and the Presidential Election would be viable in this election. Since Ma was in power, the approval rate for the President and the Premier rarely reached 40%. That such a low approval rate is able to buttress the KMT’s middle road is highly questionable.

The analysis makes clear that a Middle of the Road position is a pro-Taiwan position, not a pro-ROC position. To move to the Middle of the Road Ma had to make pro-Taiwan noises during the election, which he did, and sometimes still does. But as a KMT politico, you can't have a pro-ROC and pro-Taiwan position simultaneously while pretending to seriously mean that you're in the Middle, which appears to be what the writer of this piece is trying to say. Taiwan's politics represent that strange example where the Middle cannot be held by politicians of one party (the KMT) because it is too full of inherent conflicts. DPP politicians can maintain a Middle position because everyone knows that their homage to the ROC is mere wink wink lip service to a convenient political fantsy -- but KMT politicians have to pretend they actually support Taiwan. Tougher position to operate from, because in Taiwan's overwhelmingly pro-Taiwan electorate you can't pretend on the issue of whether you support Taiwan.

Meanwhile catapulting the propaganda from across the Strait, the China editor of the Asia Times writes:

While from the beginning Ma has been criticized by the opposition for "betraying the island's sovereignty and interests", it is obvious that the majority of Taiwanese people have benefited from closer economic ties with the mainland. This is evident in that in local elections in the past two years, cross-strait rhetoric was not used to solicit voters. This perhaps has boosted Ma's confidence in his policy toward mainland China.

Now, a confident Ma wants to clarify the legal grounds for the development of cross-strait relations. At the tea reception, he said the word "China" is often used in (Taiwanese) government documents, which is not in accord with the "1992 Consensus". Therefore, Ma demanded that all officials refer mainland China as "the other side of the strait" or "the mainland", instead of "China".

.........

Beijing would welcome such explicit clarification by Ma. For Beijing, as long as Taiwanese authorities recognize that the island is part of China, whatever that China is, the territorial integrity of China is maintained. In other words, the possibility of Taiwan's independence is reduced. At present, Beijing's policy toward Taiwan is to foster and develop economic integration with the island and patiently wait for political reunification. Time seems to be on Beijing's side.

However, Taiwan is a democracy. Ma's attitudes and intentions are one thing, those of the voters may be quite another. Given Hong Kong's example as a semi-autonomous territory, Beijing's carrot policy may win quick cheers and applause, but much more effort is needed for it to win people's hearts and minds.

Lots of problems here -- he's wrong to claim that cross strait trade has benefitted ordinary people. The one thing everyone agrees on is that the benefits of cross strait trade have not trickled down to hoi polloi. I thinking everyone is misreading Ma's public comments on officials referring to China as "the mainland." Government officials and publications already do that and did it throughout the DPP era in many offices.

I think rather Ma is talking to the general public, which is starting to shift to the use of "China" instead of "the mainland" slowly over time. Many of my friends have reported noticing this. Ma cannot directly order people not to speak truth. But he can send out public signals overtly aimed at A, but intended for B. I think we're seeing that dynamic at work.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Philippines Deportation Row Ramifies

Last week the Philippines deported 14 Taiwanese fraud suspects to China. The ensuing spat has not been pretty.

First, in plain news, Taiwan has formally requested that its people be handed back.

According to the statement, the ministry urged China to repatriate the 14 fraud suspects and transfer evidence or documents detailing their criminal acts as soon as possible under the premises of promoting peaceful development of bilateral ties, maintaining orderly cross-strait engagement and enhancing the interests of the people on both sides.

The MOJ also asked China to inform it of the suspects' criminal acts and to protect their basic judicial rights, as well as arrange for Taiwanese officials or family members to visit the suspects prior to repatriation.

In addition, the ministry pushed China to respond to its requests or start negotiations for a solution as soon as possible so that the suspects can be brought back to Taiwan as quickly as possible.

We will now see how well channels between China and Taiwan for the repatriation of criminals and those accused of crimes work.

The ramifications of this affair are rapidly expanding. First, consequences for ties between Taipei and Manila appear to be severe. The Philippines had been hoping for increased investment and improved ties, but it looks like Manila has temporarily spiked any hope of that. Not only has Taiwan recalled its representative to the Philippines, it also appears to be taking action against Filipino workers here in Taiwan. This has caused labor recruiters in the Philippines to ask the government to do something...

But Taiwan is threatening to stop hiring workers from the Philippines due to the row.

Taipei said Monday it would tighten controls on Philippine workers after last week's deportation to China of 24 suspected members of a telephone fraud ring, including 14 from Taiwan.

On Tuesday, Labor Affairs Minister Wang Ju-hsuan said, ''If there is no goodwill response, we will take harsher measures and do not rule out freezing the import of Filipino workers.''

The Taiwan government said it would not revoke scholarships of Filipino nationals studying in Taiwan and that tightened screening would not affect laborers already in Taiwan. Taiwan also scrapped a plan for visa-free travel for Philippines citizens holding visas for travel to Europe, the US, Japan and other advanced countries. It should be noted that the Philippines not only deported the 14 Taiwanese but also refused to let the Taiwan representative see them before they were deported, a needless slap at Taiwan. At present there is no probe in the Philippines of the decision to deport the 14 Taiwanese.

One interesting nit -- the Philippines articles said there were 33,000 OFWs in Taiwan; the Liberty Times and other papers reported 77,000. The CNA has a round up of newspaper editorials here.

One move Taiwan authorities could make to show their displeasure is to deport all the illegal Philippine OFWs, which local authorities must certainly be aware of. But they obviously won't do that because local businesses and farmers would scream.

As a result of the controversy, local firms, expecting government action, are moving to recruit workers from other countries.

According to the Taipei-based Chinese National Federation of Industries, some local companies have decided to import workers from those two countries [Indonesia and Thailand] rather than from the Philippines, which recently angered Taiwan by deporting 14 Taiwanese fraud suspects to China Feb. 2 along with 10 Chinese accomplices.

Such a shift might be unavoidable despite some potential negative effects, including increased operating costs and management difficulties, the federation said.

The China Post reported today that the gov't was now imposing a go-slow on applications for Filipinos to work in Taiwan.

“Starting today, we are implementing a stricter screening of applications for hiring new Filipino workers,” said Council of Labor Affairs Minister Wang Ju-hsuan.

She said it would now take four months to screen applications for importing Filipino workers, compared with the maximum of 12 days previously required.

According to this Philippine paper, it was the sixth time in 17 years Taipei had frozen labor applications from a source country and the second time it had done that to the Philippines.

A recent commentary in the Taipei Times, however, shifted some of the blame to the problems to Taiwan's diplomatic corps, which treats Manila as a second-class state. Why, it asks, didn't this massive fraud case get some treatment in the media prior to this event? Why is cooperation between Taipei and Manila so poor? Well...

Not enough weight is given to the relationship between Taiwan and the Philippines. Although the Philippines is only about one hour away by airplane and so should be a very important neighbor, a look at the political situation in Taiwan shows that because Manila is not a regional heavyweight in terms of political and economic power, it does not carry much political clout.

The result is that Taiwan’s relationship with the Philippines does not receive special attention. If an urgent or unexpected situation that must be handled through diplomatic channels occurs in the relationship between the two countries, chances are that the results will be limited, in particular if the “obstacles” posed by the cross-strait relationship are taken into consideration.

Not only that, the article points out that many different Taiwan offices operate in the Philippines but coordination among them is poor. This neglect of the Philippines no doubt in part reflects the rampant ethnic chauvinism locals of all political stripes display for people of darker skin color. And if you treat people like crap, you shouldn't be surprised when your contempt is returned.

Why did Manila deport the suspects to China? The Taipei Times observed in an editorial:

The first incident was the deportation of 14 Taiwanese suspected of fraud from the Philippines to China. Although Taiwan’s representative office in the Philippines repeatedly demanded the 14 be sent to Taiwan, and although it secured writs of habeas corpus from the Court of Appeals of the Philippines to prevent the deportation to China, Manila ignored Taipei’s demands. After the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strong protest, top Philippine officials issued a statement expressing their deep regret — but not an apology — on Monday.

The statement said that Philippine authorities had decided to deport the suspects to China “considering that all the victims are Chinese, all the accomplices are Chinese and the results can be best settled in China.”

This statement deals a double blow to Taiwan. Manila had no intention of returning the suspects to Taiwan because it fears China. This was the result the Philippines weighing the respective power of China and Taiwan and acting in accordance with its own best interests. However, Philippine officials also ignored the decision of their own courts, forcing their judiciary to bow before China’s political might. This will not increase Taiwan’s respect for the Philippines.

The Philippines adheres to Beijing's One China policy. This is likely a response to China's growing might, but it may also stem from the desire that Manila's own claims to areas such as northeastern Sabah State in Malaysia and to some South China Sea islands be recognized. Manila also pointed out that the suspects had outstanding warrants in China, which it was bound to honor. There was, however, no need to call them all "Chinese" when they clearly weren't.

Some of the ramifications of the Philippines' statement that all involved "are Chinese" were noted in another Taipei Times editorial, pointing out that Beijing's version of extraordinary rendition -- a dangerous and evil precedent set by the United States -- has potential consequences for Taiwan:

The case of Huseyin Celil, a Uighur and Canadian citizen, is a case in point. Celil, who grew up in China and obtained political asylum in Canada in 2001, was arrested by Uzbek authorities while visiting his wife’s family in 2006, and then deported to China, where he was sentenced to life in prison for “separating China and ... organizing, leading and participating in terrorist groups.”

Given all this, it is not impossible that, at some point, Taiwanese who are active in supporting Taiwanese independence — seeking to “separate China,” as Celil allegedly did — could be arrested somewhere and deported to China, where the judicial system, which serves the Chinese Communist Party more than it does the state, would be heavily stacked against them.

Not only could Taiwanese who did not break any law other than those conjured up by the authoritarian regime in Beijing face the threat of arrest and deportation within the region, but once deported they would be swallowed whole by a system that time and again has shown its willingness to rely on the harshest of interrogation techniques to break inmates and extract whatever “confession” is sought by state prosecutors.

Another correction -- some news reports, including one from Xinhua, said that Taiwan had participated in the investigation. However, a senior diplomatic official denied this yesterday:

The jurisdiction principle of nationality that Taiwan claimed is only one of many theories of jurisdiction in international law, as authorities can also claim jurisdiction based on the nationality of the victims, the country in which the crime took place, or mutual agreements to combat serious crime, Lee said.

Taiwan did not have a say in the case because it did not participate in the investigation, which was jointly carried out by China and the Philippines, Lee said.

However, Lee cited a similar case late last year in which none of the 18 Taiwanese suspects arrested Dec. 22 were deported to China because the case was a cooperative effort between the police authorities of Taiwan and the Philippines.

Taiwanese officials called on Manila to take Taiwan seriously, pointing out that they had not worked through diplomatic channels and had failed to inform Taiwan of meetings:

The fact that the Philippines did not offer Taiwan direct communications channels to relevant government agencies, such as the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs and Department of Justice, throughout the incident was “unacceptable,” Yang said.

“All we could do was to communicate through the MECO, and that was not enough,” he said.

Yang said Philippine authorities refused to grant Taiwanese officials access to a meeting on Tuesday last week to discuss the deportation issue, and failed to inform the Taiwanese side of the results of another closed-door meeting until the afternoon of Wednesday last week, when the Taiwanese suspects had already been deported.

Really, there appear to be two controversies -- one for the domestic audience over the deportation of the 14 Taiwanese to China, and one between professional diplomats over Manila's treatment of Taipei's officials in the Philippines. Punishment should be meted out to Manila, and then Taiwan should embrace the Philippines offer to establish a mechanism for handling issues like this.

Just to get a sense of how the issue was presented in the Philippines, here is a report from a local paper there. There's no mention of Taiwan in it:

Twenty-four young Chinese fugitives who had been hiding in the country were deported to China after they were arrested by Philippine authorities, officials at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport said Wednesday.

The foreigners, who were wanted on charges ranging from large-scale computer fraud to kidnapping, were deported to Beijing aboard an early-morning chartered Air China flight, immigration bureau officers at the NAIA said.

The fugitives reportedly had outstanding warrants of arrest in China and were apprehended in the Philippines by local law enforcers, including immigration agents, in coordination with the Chinese government.

......

Immigration sources said they had victimized big banking institutions in China and pilfered dollar remittances through hacking.

The Chinese ambassador to the Philippines Liu Jianchao, accompanied by the Chinese military and police attaches, reportedly saw off the suspects as they boarded the aircraft back to China.

Scary, eh?

What this incident shows is not so much how a rising China is gobsmacking Taiwan's diplomacy -- to paraphrase Harry Truman, when nations are given a choice between an island pretending to be China and the real China, they will always opt for the real one -- but actually how Taiwan's diplomacy is failing Taiwan. Let's hope that Taiwan focuses on a positive response -- invigorating its own diplomacy -- rather than on smacking down Manila. Unfortunately independent diplomacy is not a priority of the current pro-China administration in Taipei.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Study Argues What I've been saying for a year and a half

A new study at the US National Defense University catches up to what I've been saying since Ma's "peace in our time" approach was implemented. The TT says:

A new study by a China security expert at the US National Defense University cautioned that there might be a distinct downside to deeper cross-strait rapprochement between Taiwan and China.

Closer ties between the two sides could raise the prospect of “fundamental changes in China’s security challenges,” its author Michael Glosny said.

Glosny said that while other countries would be relieved by the rapprochement, many would also worry that a rising China no longer constrained by a focus on Taiwan would use its increased power to “challenge their interests elsewhere in Asia.”

Yes, it is indeed a brilliant insight that peace in the Taiwan Strait will simply lead to more tension elsewhere, because tension is displaced....one I noted 18 months ago:

The other lesson to be learned here is the failure to make the cross-regional connections between Beijing's expansionist policies in the Strait and elsewhere. The election of Ma Ying-jeou did not 'reduce tension.' Rather, the KMT's move to put Taiwan into China's orbit, thus 'reducing Taiwan-China tensions', has given China the confidence and opportunity to ramp up tension elsewhere.

Tensions are not reduced. They are merely displaced. And the more tension is 'reduced' here in the Beijing-Taipei, the more it will appear elsewhere. Because the cause of "tension" isn't Taiwan's democracy, but China's expansionism.

Where's the article on me in the Taipei Times? :)

The authors of the study appear to believe that the tension in the area is caused by China, which is the correct belief. Let's hope this realization is currently sweeping our analyst class. It should be clear to all observers that the problems between the DPP Administration and Beijing were not caused by Chen "provoking" China but by China's demand to annex Taiwan. Hopefully the realization that China's territorial demands are the source of tension in its relationships with other nations will begin to include Taiwan.

Another observation: because China is the source of the problem, only change in China can bring peace. Right now, unless China changes its policies, we are headed for a series of wars along its frontiers. How can we get China to change its policies and attitudes?

REF: Original study here.
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Daily Links:

• A Japanese scholar with more documentary evidence that the Chinese never thought of the Senkakus as "Chinese."
• Why US-China relations will get tougher.
• Taiwan's science council to monitor volcanoes in the Tatun Mountain group here in Taiwan.
  
• Beijing demands Taiwan change its name in local medical group
• Brookings on the Quadrennial Defense Review in Taiwan. Note that Taiwan's FY2011 defense budget is 2.15% of GDP -- remember Ma promising 3%?
  
• Thai-Cambodia border conflict intensifies.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Daily Links, Feb 7, 2011

"Smile!" I shouted as I rode by. The daughter happily complied. Finally, mom grunted out a surly 'happy new year'" as we disappeared around the curve. It's great to be back in Taiwan.

Today's quote from a highly intelligent observer of Taiwan's politics: "ROC 100? This is really an exercise in Orwellian double-think and a KMTist distortion of history and an exclusion of a future history for Taiwan people."

Meanwhile, what's being reliably represented on the blogs today?

BLOGS:

• A narrow gauge rail line in Taiwan, for coal. The third in the series, with one and two. Pics from the 1990s, when the line was still operating. Way cool.
• My Kafkaesque Life's top ten Taiwanese songs
• How to order train tickets in Taiwan w/o a credit card.
• Peking Duck on the tasteless Tibet-flavored Super Bowl ad.
• OzSoapbox asks: is this the most Asian taxi in Taiwan?
• David on the Freak Out Beast Music Festival in Da An Park.
• Anniestan does the Year of the Rabbit
• Richard Matheson on The Third Prince
• Taiwan in Cycles on our awesome ride on Highway 21. This made-for-cyclists road should be on everyone's list.
• ETRC on the DPP's 2012 Dream Team.
• Fili explores NE Taiwan by train. Fili, it is even better on a bike.
• Ben with a hilarious Paypal fail. Ben, please tell me that is a hoax.
• Taiwan Matters! argues that we should say "Lunar New Year."
• Pat confronts the torment of neighbors.
• Kerim compares blogging platforms for teaching
• Pinyin Info chastises the government for the innumerable errors on its map of southern Taiwan.
  
• The China Beat has one of those romantic articles on Chinese culture, so much more awesome than our own: "Since historically China developed as a series of agricultural, farming-based communities that required virtues such as cooperation and harmony, the default position in Chinese thought is to bring together these opposing views in what is famously known as the middle-way, finding a solution that allows for the continuation of true community." This is because there were no agricultural, farming-based communities in the west -- it's been nothing but heavy industry for centuries -- remember Aristotle's writings on petrochemical plants? *sigh* Nisbett's Just So Stories are The Discovery Institute of China analysis.
  

MEDIA:

• Taiwan to launch new supercomputer in July
• Freakonomics: the hidden side of trash in Taipei
  
• Our awesomely pragmatic and totally unideological president wants gov't officials in Taiwan to make sure they call China "the mainland" and "the other side" and never "China". Party like it's 1956, folks! I mean, can you imagine the conversation in the Ma household tonight....
  

PRESIDENT MA: I'm setting out the fine Mainland for our guests, honey. How many guests do we have?
MRS MA: What?
PRESIDENT MA: How many plates of fine Mainland do we need?
MRS MA: Uh....ok.... Six. I'll need some smaller plates for the appetizer, Chinese spring rolls.
PRESIDENT MA: Sorry darling, we call those Other Side Spring Rolls now.
MRS MA: Uh...right. So when I go to San Francisco, I'm visiting....
PRESIDENT MA: ....Mainlandtown.
MRS: MA: Ok...and ABCs are...?
PRESIDENT MA: ABOSers.
MRS MA: And you're the President of...?
PRESIDENT MA: ....The Republic of Mainland.

• Japan's generational inequality the world's worst.
• Wapo now hosts official Chinese propaganda.
• Francis Lam at Salon on how to make potstickers from scratch
• At Forumosa, a great post listing some biking trails in Hualien
• China now number 1 in PPP?
• Taiwan's media fights propaganda from gov't, China.
• Gov't apologizes for wrongful execution. For all that we hack on the Ma Administration, try and imagine some American state like Texas apologizing for its several apparent wrongful executions.
  
• From Brunei, an erratic but often correct piece on Taiwan with a strange title: "Can Withering, Anxious Taiwan Engage China?"
• Chinese experts arrive in Taiwan to help pandas mate. The mind reels.
• Taiwan recalls rep to the Philippines over the 14 Taiwanese sent to China, and also promises tighter screening of Filipinos sent to work in Taiwan. Philippine paper reports that half of OFWs might lose their jobs.
• Sharp, Chimei to team up in LCD production.
  

RESOURCES:

• Rock Climbing Taiwan
• Wiki page on Cold War defections of pilots, including China-Taiwan.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

TVBS on Identity and Independence

TVBS released its latest poll on identity, the KMT's pro-China policies, and Taiwan independence. Take a close look at Questions 9-14 (translation by ESWN):

Q9. When these economic agreements are signed, are you confident that the government will protect the interests of Taiwan?
9%: Very confident
30%: Somewhat confident
28%: Somewhat not confident
25%: Very not confident
8%: No opinion

Q10. Some people say that the policies of the Ma Ying-jeou government are tilted towards mainland China. Do you agree or disagree?
53%: Agree
39%: Disagree
9%: No opinion

Q11. What is your attitude towards unification versus independence?
61%: Maintain the status quo
21%: Lean towards independence
9%: Lean towards unification

Q12. If the choice exists, would you want Taiwan to become an independent nation or to be unified with China?
68%: Taiwan independence
18%: Unification with mainland China
14%: No opinion

Q13. In our society, some people think that they are Chinese while others think that they are Taiwanese. What do you think you are?
72%: Taiwanese
17%: Chinese
11%: Don't know/refused to answer

Q14. What would you say that you are? Taiwanese? Chinese? Both?
50%: Taiwanese
43%: Both Taiwanese and Chinese
3%: Chinese
5%: Don't know

According to the island's most rabidly pro-KMT station, the public strongly supports independence, totally rejects the idea that it is solely Chinese, and thinks the KMT government is too close to China. Basically, everything many of us have been saying is all laid out there. Consider how slanted pro-KMT TVBS polls tend to be -- likely a methodology issue, not an inherent bias -- this poll is even more amazing. For Chinese the questions use the term 中國人.

I know of other polls that are showing similar trends -- one is due to be released later this year; can't wait to report on it.

Someone asked me whether the reunification lobby will shrink and the independence lobby grow as time goes by. I think this widespread identification with Taiwan will paradoxically lead to greater polite meaningless noise about annexation. Certainly Beijing will continue to put pressure on Taiwan firms in China to toe the Beijing line, and they are likely to respond by doing so, in order to function in that market. The powerful, growing, and stable identification with Taiwan means that they can do so secure in the knowledge that it doesn't matter. That rising Taiwan identification also means that local voters feel secure voting for local KMT candidates also in part because the KMT is part of that Taiwan identity. Hence I do not see that a growing identification with Taiwan will necessarily translate into less pro-China rhetoric in society at large or KMT losses at the polls.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Missing Detail! in the Philippines Deportation Story

The DPP made a few comments on the recent diplomatic row over the extradition of Taiwanese to China to stand trial for fraud committed against Chinese nationals abroad....

The Philippine government held an extraordinary meeting yesterday after Taipei lodged a protest over the deportation to China of 14 Taiwanese allegedly involved in an international fraud ring, a Taiwanese government official said on condition of anonymity, adding that Taiwan would monitor how Manila handles the matter.

The Philippine government has yet to respond formally to the protest made by Taipei on Wednesday, including a strongly worded statement that Taiwan could re-examine bilateral relations and suspend exchanges over the controversy.

Let's hope the Ma Administration fires a warning shot across Manila's bow, loud and clear -- Taiwan employs thousands of Filipino nationals who send home megabucks -- assuming we can get a clarification of what happened and what it means per my question below:

The key question which no news article I have seen has made clear is the terms of China's demands. Were the sent to China as foreign nationals who had committed crimes against Chinese? Or did Manila repatriate the nationals of Taiwan/ROC as Chinese under Beijing's One China policy which Manila adheres to. In other words, what is the diplomatic tussle about, precisely?

UPDATE: Xinhua says it was a joint Taiwan/China/Philippines bust. Thanks to anon for the pointer to this article:

The group, headed by Taiwanese suspects, was found to have stolen some 140 million yuan (21 million U.S. dollars) since October by cheating over 450 individuals across 21 provinces and autonomous regions on the mainland, the ministry said in a statement.

With members spreading among the mainland, Taiwan, and the Philippines, the fraud ring first made phone calls from the Philippines to a targeted individual on the Chinese mainland, claiming the latter was involved in money laundering crimes.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Polynesians not from Taiwan?

A new study argues that Taiwan's genetic contributions to the settlement of Polynesian were not very large:

Lead researcher, Professor Martin Richards, explains: "Most previous studies looked at a small piece of mtDNA, but for this research we studied 157 complete mitochondrial genomes in addition to smaller samples from over 4,750 people from across Southeast Asia and Polynesia. We also reworked our dating techniques to significantly reduce the margin of error. This means we can be confident that the Polynesian population – at least on the female side – came from people who arrived in the Bismarck Archipelago of Papua New Guinea thousands of years before the supposed migration from Taiwan took place."

Nevertheless, most linguists maintain that the Polynesian languages are part of the Austronesian language family which originates in Taiwan. And most archaeologists see evidence for a Southeast Asian influence on the appearance of the Lapita culture in the Bismarck Archipelago around 3,500 years ago. Characterised by distinctive dentate stamped ceramics and obsidian tools, Lapita is also a marker for the earliest settlers of Polynesia.

Professor Richards and co-researcher Dr Pedro Soares (now at the University of Porto), argue that the linguistic and cultural connections are due to smaller migratory movements from Taiwan that did not leave any substantial genetic impact on the pre-existing population.

Complexification indeed!
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Religion in the Service of Politics

We found these in our mailbox this week. The red poster has the traditional New Year's phrases and the name of the KMT politician who passed them out. More interesting is the pink sheet, which advertises a trip next month to visit temples in Hsinchu and Taipei, as well as the Shenkeng Old Street. With KTV on the bus too! The first six rows are $850, the next 6, just $750. But if you see who to contact, two of the numbers are local neighborhood captains, both KMT. The trip is a form of service/advertisement for the KMT. The KMT's tight links with local temples are an important factor in its ability to win votes at the local level, especially here in hotly contested Taichung.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

ECFA and Independence

The market was an absolute madhouse today as the New Year holiday closes in.

The Taipei Times reported on an American Enterprise Institute discussion of Taiwan and ECFA, the speaker being Council for Economic Planning and Development Minister Christina Liu...

Liu said that if the ECFA was the right policy and the markets showed economic benefits, there would be no pulling back.

Asked if the ECFA could continue if Taiwan moved toward independence, Liu said that if the majority in Taiwan were to pursue independence “then the whole thing will be totally different.”

If independence became a central theme and central belief for Taiwanese, then “everything would change,” she said.

“I don’t think that is the consensus for Taiwan. We have done many surveys and the majority of people in Taiwan are hoping to keep the ‘status quo.’ I don’t think that independence will be an issue,” Liu said.

Note how she says "everything would change" if Taiwan became independence-oriented. The politics of ECFA are interesting in this context -- it is possible to read this as her saying that ECFA would be rejected if the populace wanted an independent Taiwan, but she might also mean that China would withdraw ECFA's benfits in that case. Her speech is very ambiguous. It seems like ECFA is something that once in, you can't get out, at least in the government planning view.

Another facet of this speech is the way that KMT officials treat "the status quo." The KMT is careful to separate "the status quo" from independence, as if the status quo itself, overwhelmingly supported, were not a form of independence. This helps create a vagueness that lends support to the idea that advocates of independence are a minority, whereas as poll after poll indicates, no one wants to be part of China and if China did not threaten to maim and kill Taiwanese, everyone would opt for independence. Those Chinese missiles help keep the KMT in power.....

She also mentioned that the government is planning to further transition the economy to services and to promote domestic consumption. Their answer to the problem of diversification is not to diversify to other countries, but to reduce dependence on exports by ramping up domestic consumption -- as if Taiwan were not an export dependent economy! Liu did call for wage hikes in 2011. The government expects growth of 5% in 2011 as TIER said that manufacturing indicators showed the economy might be slowing down.
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Daily Links:

• US Ambassador to China, John Huntsman, resigns. May consider Presidential run
• Australian citizen of Chinese extraction jailed in China five years ago for spying for Taiwan; case is only now making media appearance.
• Philippines deports 14 Taiwanese to China for fraud against Chinese nationals.
  
• China developing counterstealth weapons.
• Taiwanese dispatch charity in silence.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Taichung City: Sambo Says Don't Smoke

My friend Paul Batt found this sign from the Taichung City Health Department that depicts smokers as savages -- presumably in need of civilization in the form of not smoking. The sign reads:

New Century Look out Ideology [Modernism]
New Human Beings Don't Smoke
Smoking not only harms your health but that of others as well

The presentation of smokers as savages in need of a civilizing influence...says volumes. It used to be that smoking was a sign of modernity, now it is not.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.