TVBS on Identity and Independence

TVBS released its latest poll on identity, the KMT's pro-China policies, and Taiwan independence. Take a close look at Questions 9-14 (translation by ESWN):

Q9. When these economic agreements are signed, are you confident that the government will protect the interests of Taiwan?
9%: Very confident
30%: Somewhat confident
28%: Somewhat not confident
25%: Very not confident
8%: No opinion

Q10. Some people say that the policies of the Ma Ying-jeou government are tilted towards mainland China. Do you agree or disagree?
53%: Agree
39%: Disagree
9%: No opinion

Q11. What is your attitude towards unification versus independence?
61%: Maintain the status quo
21%: Lean towards independence
9%: Lean towards unification

Q12. If the choice exists, would you want Taiwan to become an independent nation or to be unified with China?
68%: Taiwan independence
18%: Unification with mainland China
14%: No opinion

Q13. In our society, some people think that they are Chinese while others think that they are Taiwanese. What do you think you are?
72%: Taiwanese
17%: Chinese
11%: Don't know/refused to answer

Q14. What would you say that you are? Taiwanese? Chinese? Both?
50%: Taiwanese
43%: Both Taiwanese and Chinese
3%: Chinese
5%: Don't know

According to the island's most rabidly pro-KMT station, the public strongly supports independence, totally rejects the idea that it is solely Chinese, and thinks the KMT government is too close to China. Basically, everything many of us have been saying is all laid out there. Consider how slanted pro-KMT TVBS polls tend to be -- likely a methodology issue, not an inherent bias -- this poll is even more amazing. For Chinese the questions use the term 中國人.

I know of other polls that are showing similar trends -- one is due to be released later this year; can't wait to report on it.

Someone asked me whether the reunification lobby will shrink and the independence lobby grow as time goes by. I think this widespread identification with Taiwan will paradoxically lead to greater polite meaningless noise about annexation. Certainly Beijing will continue to put pressure on Taiwan firms in China to toe the Beijing line, and they are likely to respond by doing so, in order to function in that market. The powerful, growing, and stable identification with Taiwan means that they can do so secure in the knowledge that it doesn't matter. That rising Taiwan identification also means that local voters feel secure voting for local KMT candidates also in part because the KMT is part of that Taiwan identity. Hence I do not see that a growing identification with Taiwan will necessarily translate into less pro-China rhetoric in society at large or KMT losses at the polls.
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Evaluating TVBS

I posted some TVBS polls on the Feb By-elections a couple of posts below and a friend suggested I take a look at TVBS polls (poll center) from the Dec 5 county/city elections to get a sense of how accurate the TVBS polls are. Each number means the percent by which the KMT is ahead of the DPP in the poll (ex: +5 = KMT ahead by 5%). Outcomes are from CEC data (PDF). All the polls were of likely voters. The elections are all county elections.

I-lan
KMT vs DPP (four polls from Feb, Oct, Nov & Nov): +12, +7, +5, +6
Actual outcome: DPP +8.5 (KMT -8.5)

Hsinchu
The Hsinchu race featured three candidates. Three polls from Oct, Nov, and Nov:
KMT over Ind/DPP: +3/+16, -4/+12, +3/+12
Actual Outcome: +8 over both IND and DPP

Chiayi:
Two polls from Oct and Nov
KMT over DPP: -5, -8
Actual Outcome: DPP +15 (KMT -15)

Yunlin:
Two polls from Oct and Nov
KMT over DPP: -33, -35
Actual Outcome: DPP +31 (KMT -31)

Nantou
Two polls from Oct and Nov
KMT over DPP: +22, +31
Actual Outcome: KMT +11

Hualien:
Two polls from Oct and Nov
KMT over IND: -9, -25
Actual Outcome: IND +49 (KMT -49)

Taoyuan
One poll from Nov
KMT over DPP: +38
Actual Outcome: KMT +6.6

Miaoli
One poll from Oct
KMT over DPP: +53
Actual Outcome: KMT +30

Taidong:
One poll from Nov:
KMT over DPP: +29
Actual Outcome: KMT +5

Changhua
One poll from Oct:
KMT over DPP: +22
Actual Outcome: KMT +11

Some consistent patterns: except where the DPP has a blow-out lead, TVBS always underestimates the size of the DPP vote, sometimes by very large margins. Another way to look at it is that its findings are strongly biased for the KMT, which is not to say the pollsters are biased, but rather than its findings appear to be. Perhaps KMT voters are more likely to express a willingness to vote for the KMT to a Chinese-owned TV station that is ardently pro-KMT, or for some reason the undecideds predominantly break DPP. Another consistent pattern is that in almost every poll that is not a massive blowout, undecideds constitute 25-35% of the sample. In sum, unless the KMT candidate has a lead of at least 10 points, s/he should probably be considered within reach.

Thus looking at the early polls for the legislative by-elections in Feb, Hualien (KMT+19) should be regarded as out of reach for the DPP (but look for that gap to close), Taoyuan (KMT +3 over DPP and +21/28 over independents) is in play and might even be DPP win, while Hsinchu (KMT -10) looks like a pretty safe DPP bet, and Chiayi (KMT -31) is going to be a DPP blowout victory.

A closer look at the Taoyuan election. The election is being held in Taoyuan 2. That district consists of four townships: Tayuan, Yangmei, Hsinwu, and Guanyin. Rounding down, in the county chief election, they went DPP +8, KMT +12, DPP +13, and DPP +15. The total vote count across those was roughly 70,000 votes for the DPP and 67,000 for the KMT. But all politics are local, and legislators are different than township chiefs, so don't set too much store by that. There are two independents in the race, poaching votes.

Further point: A longtime analyst and observer here told me that in the educated demographic in Hsinchu, the DPP's candidate, highly educated, blows away the KMT candidate.
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DAILY LINKS:

• "Isolated" Iran, Russia, China in key gas deal.
• Dixteel says KMT isn't really right-wing
• Ma to transit through US.
• Epoch Times commentary rips Friedman's Taiwan piece. Really, it's too easy.

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TVBS Protest, April 14

After the blogger conference Scott Sommers and I went for a stroll, and by chance, headed up Ba De Rd. There we saw that workers were busy unloading barbed wire, and the area was crawling with police and media. What was this?

Policeman scan the plan.

Media reps set up their equipment.

Here the police erect barbed wire against the entrance to....what? It dawned on me that we had stumbled upon the protest against TVBS by the Greens. I had been notified of it a couple of days before but I was too swamped to do much blogging last week. The Greens were protesting the fabrication of the gangster video by the Chinese-owned news station TVBS, in service of the Blues' claim that Taiwan is a mess and the implicit conclusion that only Blue rule followed by annexation to China can save it.

Scott and I plopped ourselves down in the middle of the media types. This attractive reporter, a local woman who works for the Hong Kong media outlet Phoenix TV, immediately came over to talk to us. She had a bad moment. She asked us what we thought of the protest, then countered with the "...but don't you think there is too much freedom?" Scott read her the riot act, and gave an impassioned speech on the failures of the media and its constant misrepresentation of the issues -- just a fabulous speech, I wish I had recorded it. I was awed. For some reason she didn't speak to us again after that....too bad.

Workers placing barbed wire obstacles.

Scott, highly skilled in the martial arts, poses amid the bustle.

A view through the wire.

The reporter practices her talk before going live.

Policemen, sans guns, lounge around before the big show begins.

A policeman blocks off Ba De Rd.

A driver tries to talk the policeman into letting him go through the restricted area. The incident ended with smiles all around.

Reporters wait for the protesters. The show got moving late.

They were taking no chances. The barbed wire was anchored to the pavement.

Everyone finally just settled down to staring down Ba De Rd, waiting for the protesters to arrive.

A couple of brothers showed up, a lovely collie in tow. They came and stood by me, and after a while we fell to chatting. "So many policemen!" said I. "Think it will turn violent?" They shook their heads, conessuiers adjudicating the question of a tyro. "Nowadays," explained one, "if any trouble starts, the policemen arrest them immediately." He gave a little sigh, redolent with nostalgia for the good old days when the policemen let you bash heads to your heart's content.

Buses arrived to disgorge even more policemen carrying sticks.

The policemen formed up and marched over to TVBS headquarters.....

...where they formed a line in front of the barbed wire.

Slowly, like Gasim rising out of the desert in Lawrence of Arabia, the protesters appeared.

The policemen readied themselves.

Take a look at the TV photos from TVBS on Roland Soong's ESWN, and then at the pic above. The local journalists estimated that the crowd was at 1,000 or so. I left before the minor violence depicted on ESWN broke out. Everything was quite peaceful around 3:40 when I finally got bored. The Taipei Times said that

Some 300 police officers were called in to prevent demonstrators from rushing into the station, but there were no serious conflicts reported.

The leader harangues the crowd.

It's easy to take photos that give the impression of large, throaty crowds surging toward a goal. The reality was that most of the cordoned off area was empty. 1,000 people certainly don't take up much space.

People handed out these stickers that told TVBS to "get the fuck out of Taiwan."

The crowd was composed almost entirely of people middle-aged and older.

Hmmm....I hope this an expression of attitude, not intent.

At one point someone came out to talk, but I couldn't find out who it was.

Of course, this made-for-media event wouldn't be complete with an appearance by local DPP candidates, hoping to get their faces before the media. They hung out in the background the whole time I was there.

Sounds trucks carrying candidates.

The outing ended as it began, with a trip to the metro.

[Taiwan] [DPP] [TVBS] [China]

GIO Chief Resigns

The head of the Government Information Office (GIO) resigned today after a flap resulting from an alleged improper suggestion that Fuji, Japan, sell its holdings in TTV to the Liberty Times. The pro-KMT China Post reported:

Premier Su Tseng-chang accepted yesterday the resignation of Government Information Office Director-General Cheng Wen-tsan for his alleged intervention in sales of Taiwan Television Enterprises Ltd. (TTV) shares.

Cheng tendered his resignation after Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen made public a report on the disputed deal, pointing out the "improper role" played by Cheng.

Premier Su Tseng-chang said he approved Cheng's resignation reluctantly because Cheng, whose position gave him an oversight role with local media, did not persuade Fuji Television of Japan to sell its shares in TTV, one of four terrestrial networks on the island, to the pro-government Liberty Times newspaper as accused by a Fuji TV executive.

According to Su, Cheng voluntarily tendered his resignation Monday out of concern that the Cabinet's image might be affected due to his controversial role.

Fielding questions from opposition lawmakers during a question-and-answer session earlier the same day in the Legislative Yuan, Su denied that he was aware of the Jan. 17 banquet beforehand.

Su also ruled out allegations that he himself gave Cheng a free hand to handle the TTV shares case, saying that he did not instruct Cheng to host the banquet, which was attended by Fuji TV representative Sumio Hasegawa, Minister of Economic Affairs Steven R.L. Chen, and Liberty Times representatives.

The Liberty Times is a pro-DPP Chinese language paper. Its rival, the KMT rag China Times, already owns a cable station (CTI) which is rabidly pro-Blue. Naturally, the DPP GIO minister suggesting that a TV station be sold to a Green newspaper looks like a conflict of interest. The key moment was the publication of a report from the Vice Premier which said that Cheng's suggestion was inappropriate. The pro-Green Taipei Times reported:

Cheng came under attack from opposition lawmakers after Hasegawa last week claimed that Cheng and Chen had arranged the lunch to "suggest" Fuji Television Network transfer its TTV shares to the Liberty Times Group.

"It was difficult for me to make the decision to let him [Cheng] go but I have to," Su added.

Su also said he had nothing to do with the whole episode.

"I never told him [Cheng] to get involved in this [Fuji's selling of TTV shares,]" Su said. "I had no idea he was having such a lunch."

The key that led to the Cheng's resignation was Tsai's investigation report.

In it, Tsai said that although there was no element of personal interest involved, Cheng's behavior was "extremely inappropriate."

Although Cheng's involvement did not cause any damage or change Fuji's mind, he, as a Cabinet spokesman, should take responsibility because his behavior has seriously damaged the Cabinet's credibility after its promise that the government would not interfere with the media, the report said.

The Blue side has been arguing that the TVBS scandal has been played up because the DPP wants to deflect attention from this case, and that Su only removed the GIO minister when his popularity fell. The first is probably true, but no credible evidence supports the second claim.

[Taiwan] [TVBS] [GIO] [TTV]

Gangsta Pap 2: Would-be Coppola at TVBS fired

It's a Sicilian message. It means Luca Brasi sleeps with the fishes.

All of the Chinese and English newspapers are running front page reports today with the story of how TVBS reporters helped film a mobster threatening his capo (see UPDATE below as of 9 pm 3/29). The pro-Blue China Post reports:

Axed were Shih Chen-kang for taping the video and his chief Chang Yu-kun for lying about the news source, a TVBS statement said.

Two TVBS editing supervisors in Taipei were disciplined for failure to ascertain the source whom Shih, the correspondent in Nantou, and Chang claimed was Chou Cheng-pao, a gangster who displayed weapons while threatening to kill his mob boss Liu Jui-lung.

Pan Tsu-yin and Sun Chia-jui were each given one demerit. Sun was relieved of her concurrent job as city editor.

The Taichung correspondents told the supervisors the source could not be identified. The two supervisors then edited the tape, which was claimed to have been produced by Chou Cheng-pao himself.

The pro-Green Taipei Times emphasized the responsibility of the organization as a whole for the affair, which among other things provided a fascinating glimpse into the way the news is created on Taiwan:

In its statement, TVBS said an internal investigation had found that Shi had helped Chou film the video.

TVBS news director Pan Tzu-yin (潘祖蔭) and vice news director Sun Chia-juei (孫嘉蕊) were also given citations for their lack of oversight, the statement added.

According to the TVBS, Shi explained that Chou asked him for help on Saturday afternoon. He decided to make the video because he found it newsworthy, the station cited Shi as saying.

Shi asked Chang not to tell TVBS managers about how he got the footage, TVBS said.

Yang Ying-lan (楊英蘭), an official with the National Communications Commission (NCC), disagreed with TVBS' position that the two reporters were solely responsible for the incident.

"The footage has been broadcasted again and again," she said. "How can the management at the station get away with simply saying that it was just the reporters' fault?"

When asked if the incident will cause the station to loose its broadcast license, Yang said the penalty will ultimately be determined by the commission's members.

If the commission finds the Chou video to be a serious violation, the station will be asked to stop broadcasting for three days.

A while back TVBS came under fire from the DPP for being a 100% foreign-owned Chinese tool, whose Chairman once ran the Hong Kong broadcasting authority. TVBS is in blatant violation of the media laws, but the DPP did nothing until it got out of hand, as I noted back in 2005. It would be nice if the GIO shut down TVBS and the people who collaborated with the gangster did time. The problem is that having failed to do it all the other times, the government has left itself open to the charge that closing TVBS is simply an act of partisan politics.

In addition to the usual questions of the role of media in society, this affair also highlights the critical problem of the lack of a civic culture, and the relational nature of ethics in Chinese society. What the reporter did was both unethical and illegal. Nobody seemed to care until, as the Liberty Times pointed out this morning, a police investigation of the tape showed that it hadn't been delivered to the mailbox as TVBS claimed. It's obvious that this kind of thing is only the tip of the iceberg at TVBS. There must be many similar "reports" that are unethical collaborative affairs between the reporter and his news source.

It is hard to say what the scariest part of this whole sordid affair was. The complicity of the media? Well, it is TVBS. Was it the mobster with an itch to be a movie star? Not really. For me, it was yet another instance of the amazing ability of suspects to evade lock up. The China Post gave the following background on the murdered boss:

Lin, 47, was shot at a teahouse in downtown Taichung last Friday. He succumbed the following day.

He was ambushed a few days after he had been released on bail. He went into hiding in China after the kidnapping of the city council speaker.

On October 25, Lin was arrested by Chinese police at Shenzhen near Hong Kong. After a successful negotiation, Taichung police had Lin extradited on January 4 last year. He was indicted on July 11.

Prosecutors demanded that Lin be sentenced to death, but a judge released him on bail.

Released a mob boss on bail? Disgusting.

UPDATE: The gangster was caught this afternoon.

Taichung police is interrogating Chou Cheng-pao, a member of the Celestial Way Gang, who also claimed in the TV footage he was responsible for three recent shooting incidents in central Taiwan.

Chou hid in a deserted gravel yard when police made the arrest at 4:45pm. He is wearing a bullet-proof vest and in posession of four pistols, police said.

The footage, shot by TVBS reporter Shi Chen-kang, prompted the cable TV company to fire Shi and his supervisor Chang Yu-kun Wednesday night on grounds they claimed it was provided by an anonymous source.

Opposition politicians have cited the footage as evidence of the government's ineptitude in fighting crime after TVBS aired it Monday evening and other cable TV outlets followed suit the next day.

As I said in the earlier post:

But what you won't read on ESWN is that TVBS is Chinese-owned and 100% supportive of the KMT and China -- it is a pro-Blue station to the core. A propaganda staple of the Blues is that Taiwan's society is in a mess -- and of course, videos threatening violence and gangster killings are proof positive that the propaganda is correct. What a coincidence, eh? This gangster is so useful, if he didn't exist, he'd have to be invented.

This isn't just some reporter being stupid. He knew full well what he was shooting and why he was shooting it, and how it would look and be used by his fellow travelers at TVBS. This is a High Context society in which everyone knows the score and what is expected of them.

UPDATE II: The Chinese language newspapers reported it yesterday, and the English language papers have it today. TVBS lied when it said it found out about the fakery through its own investigation:

[TVBS] said its own investigation showed that the film was shot by its reporter Shih Chen-kang and that Shih's superior Chang Yu-kun, had helped.

But the National Police Agency yesterday refuted TVBS' statement, and said the police were suspicious about the video footage before TVBS admitted misconduct.

Hou said when the police were analyzing the video footage, they found the camera was held in a stable manner, which indicated it might have been produced by professionals.

In addition to the professional shooting of the video which roused suspicion, Hou said that two fingerprints collected from the motel where the film was shot were not Chou's fingerprints. The police also discovered that the envelope which the video was placed in had no stamps on it, he added.

The police contacted TVBS for more information, Hou said, adding that he received a phone call from a TVBS supervisor on Wednesday and confirmed police suspicions that the video might have been produced by media professionals.

Some local reporters and audience members also criticized TVBS for immediately firing the two reporters before the controversy was cleared up, as they suspected that the company has tried to deny its responsibility over the negligence by shifting the blame onto the two employees. At least three demonstrations were staged outside TVBS headquarters in Taipei yesterday against the video controversy.

The government now has a robust excuse to shut this station down. Let's see if they can find the spine.

[Taiwan] [media] [TVBS]

Gangsta Pap

Our fair city has been the site of another one of those periodic outbursts of gangster violence recently. Gangsters killing each other, a world-wide affliction, is not very interesting news, but the tale did take a turn when a gangster supposedly filmed himself making threats on tape promising retaliation for the killings. ESWN has part of the story, but tonight the story took a more interesting turn when it turned out that the gangster didn't film himself -- the reporter from TVBS helped with the filming and was present during it, the evening news is reporting here. TVBS has apparently canned him (based on a TVBS taking its own initiative in investigating the reporter's claims, they say. NaCl, anyone?)

ESWN points out that gangsters have filmed themselves before, and attempts to present this as controversy of the right-to-know versus media publicity for gangsters:

There have been prior instances of Taiwan gangsters shooting their own digital videos for public consumption., and this explains why there is objection to offering publicity to gangsters. Is this news in the name of the people's right to know? Or is this encouraging worse behavior? Internationally, a similar question is whether Osama bin Ladin's videos ought to be shown on television? This is a test of finding the balance between freedom of press and media self-discipline.

Is this really a test between freedom of press and media self-discipline? Perhaps, although the reporter's involvement is blatantly illegal and is not really an information self-discipline issue. But what you won't read on ESWN is that TVBS is Chinese-owned and 100% supportive of the KMT and China -- it is a pro-Blue station to the core. A propaganda staple of the Blues is that Taiwan's society is in a mess -- and of course, videos threatening violence and gangster killings are proof positive that the propaganda is correct. What a coincidence, eh? This gangster is so useful, if he didn't exist, he'd have to be invented. Fake videos are also well known in Taiwan -- see ESWN's profile of a case from two years ago. It is too soon to say what is going on, but you can be sure the whole story ain't out there yet.

[Taiwan] [ESWN] [media] [TVBS] [Taichung]