Chen Verdict: Still More!

First, Saturday the 19th (tomorrow) there is a protest march that is going from the main gate of Taida to the Memorial Hall with Two Names, starting at 3 pm.

Lots and lots of things happening this week, and plenty of commentary on the Chen trial and verdict. The Economist, whose failures on Morakot/Dalai Lama were revolting, put out a much better piece on the Chen Verdict this week:

Mr Chen’s supporters, pointing to his life sentence, and to the 20- and 16-year sentences meted out respectively to two of his aides, claim a political vendetta by the KMT, orchestrated by Mr Ma. That would hardly be in keeping with the clean-guy image of Mr Ma, a Harvard-trained lawyer. It would also throw into question how far Taiwan has really come as a law-based democracy. But it is more plausible to blame the trial’s flaws on a legal system that has only imperfectly made the leap from being venal and biddable under dictatorship towards judicial independence and due process. Six years ago Taiwan’s judge-prosecutors were replaced by a system in which impartial judges are meant to hear out the case for the prosecution and the defence. Mr Tsai’s open hostility to Mr Chen during the trial suggests some old-school attitudes are hard to shake off.

What is more, prosecutors’ immense powers, including the practice of interrogating an individual without letting him know what he is said to have done, remain a blot on democracy. Shameful too was the skit performed at the prosecutors’ annual dinner in which mockery was made of Mr Chen famously protesting at the humiliation of having to wear handcuffs. No rebuke came from the government. Now the justice ministry threatens to disbar Mr Chen’s lawyer, Cheng Wen-lung, for questioning the fairness of the judicial process. That smacks, says Jerome Cohen, Mr Ma’s former law professor, now at New York University, of the persecution of human-rights lawyers in China.

What conclusions you draw about the future rule of law in Taiwan depend on whether you believe Mr Chen’ s trial was politically motivated or not. If not—and the investigation of Mr Chen, after all, began when he was still president—then the trial of a former president is surely a landmark. What is more, the legal system is responding to the trial’s shortcomings. For instance, thanks to a challenge by Mr Chen, the prosecutors’ insistence that they attend and record meetings between defendants and their counsel has now been ruled unconstitutional.

...of course, the government has been rather dilatory in actually carrying that out, as visitors to Chen in jail have observed.

Jerome Cohen had a widely circulated piece in the South China Morning Post, which hilariously insisted that the Chen trial was not a political vendetta, but then listed many of the more bizarre events. Read on:

The case against Chen and many family members and associates is a landmark for many reasons. It is a major blow against the massive corruption and secret political donations that have plagued Taiwan's vibrant young democracy.

It is not a political vendetta by the newly installed government of President Ma Ying-jeou against the defeated opposition but a monumental demonstration that no one is above the law - not even a president.

A "major blow against the massive corruption and secret political donations?" Reading that, one feels like Mozart in Amadeus....

One hears such sounds...
...and what can one say but...
...Salieri!

...sad that, in the end, Cohen could not read the trial in any other way but the one the KMT wanted it read. Everyone will go home, interest will fade, and the construction-industrial state will continue to water the patronage networks that keep the Blues in power, and the "massive blow against corruption" will have precisely zero effect on anything except the DPP's electoral chances.
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Daily Links:

• 12 students pile on, capture, thief. Kids, don't do this at home.
• Japan to release Taiwan fishermen captured in the Senkakus.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

WSJ Fail on Chen Verdict

The Wall Street Journal's editorial page, evidently piped in from an alternate reality where Oceania and Eastasia are perpetually at war, announced that the Chen Verdict can be Really Good Thing for Taiwan's democracy. To wit:

Former President Chen Shui-bian's conviction Friday of stealing three million dollars from state coffers and accepting bribes worth several times that amount was a shock to Taiwan. The question now is how well the island's political and judicial systems will withstand this verdict.

Taiwan has been a democracy for a mere 14 years, and when Mr. Chen was elected in 2000 he was the first opposition leader to win power after five decades of Kuomintang rule. Now he is the first head of state to be found guilty of corruption (though he says he is innocent and is appealing the verdict). Both of those firsts are, in their own ways, testaments to Taiwan's political maturation.

That's not to say that Mr. Chen's trial was without controversy. His supporters are inflamed by allegations of judicial bias and prosecutorial overreach during the trial, and protests flared up over the weekend. Chief among their grievances are the facts that Mr. Chen was held incommunicado for more than a month (legal under Taiwanese law) and that the initial presiding judge hearing the case was replaced by an unusual, but valid court procedure (Mr. Chen's case was merged with his wife's case).

The editorial goes wrong all over the place, but in the last paragraph things get particularly ugly. It is not merely "Chen's supporters" who are inflamed (with the reverse implication that those of us who are inflamed are Chen's supporters) but rather a large swath of people who truly care about the future of the island. For example, Jerome Cohen, President Ma's law school mentor, and who is otherwise completely pro-KMT in all his public speaking, has repeatedly criticized the way the case has been handled. The Taipei Bar Association (Chen supporters? Be serious) criticized the government's investigation of Chen's lawyer. The President of the Judicial Reform Foundation was critical, and the Judicial Reform Foundation pointed out that there were many problems with the case, 'especially with his detention.' As early as Feb, in fact, the Judicial Reform Foundation was complaining about it (Straits Times).

WSJ forgot to mention that when the previous judge ruled in favor of former President Chen, legislators threatened to have him impeached -- an event which was followed by the swap of the judges. No point in mentioning the letters from concerned scholars, four to date, on this case and related issues. No point in mentioning that the judge who sent Chen up for life was the same one who cleared Ma on same charge despite the fact, which no one disputed, that the special funds were in his own personal accounts. Or that two members of a powerful business family, the Koos, with longtime KMT connections, one of whom was a fugitive overseas, turned state witness and agreed to testify about allegedly illegal business deals involving Chen’s family. Somehow the fugitive managed to avoid detention after his return from Japan (Taipei Times). But Chen was detained for four months.....

WSJ apparently doesn't remember the eight prosecutors who held a press conference to announce that they would "get Chen." The skits by prosecutors that mocked Chen, the constant leaks to the press about the case, and the fact that the Chen case was one of a string of indictments against DPP politicians... one could go on all day. No WSJ, this won't be good for Taiwan, and asking the KMT to strengthen its "anticorruption" efforts is simply to legitimate its apparent use of "corruption" as a cover story for going after DPP politicians. In your next editorial WSJ, why don't you ask Singapore to strengthen its libel laws?

Moreover, "inflamed supporters" were not protesting being incommunicado, but the fact of detention itself -- the only such case in the island's history where the defendant was detained so long prior to trial (High ranking KMT hooligans have generally been allowed to run off to China, where many still reside) along with all the other things I've mentioned here. Hung Ying-hua, a local judge who has criticized the prosecution of Chen, has a piece today in the Taipei Times on the constitutionality of the verdict.

Of course, the KMT is now proposing to de-criminalize taking money from the special funds -- the law Chen was accused of breaking -- now that the Chen case is finished. (correction: the state affairs fund and the special funds are slightly different, according to my law geek friends).

It is time to stop treating the system as if it were correct by default. One could just as easily and truthfully have written that the only educated observers who think this was a fair verdict from a fair trial are KMT supporters. Everyone else appears to have reservations about it. CS Monitor noted back in May:

In a December poll conducted by Taiwan's Academia Sinica, 50 percent of Taiwanese said the island's judicial system was biased (compared with 38 percent who said it was impartial), while 59 percent said Taiwanese law did not sufficiently safeguard human rights.

As AFP noted much more fairly in its report:

Questions remain over whether his life sentence was a sign of a healthy legal system in which everyone is equal before the law, or if it marked the birth pangs of a banana republic with the courts reduced to tools in the hands of the powerful.

It's not difficult to see what kind of verdict this is -- one that is the opposite of testifying to political maturation of the island -- in fact, one that appears to more closely resemble a KMT party-state verdict from the bad old days.

What would be "testimony to the island's political maturation?" A Truth Commission, or trials for all those who murdered, tortured, and imprisoned islanders during the martial law period.

Fortunately, many in the international media have covered how strange and shocking the verdict is. Most recently Canadian journalist Jonathon Manthorpe, author of the excellent book Forbidden Nation, had another of his high-quality pieces in the Vancouver Sun this week, pointing out that the evidence cannot sustain the verdict (naturally the WSJ editorial did not consider the question of the evidence itself). A sample:

The indictment is 202 pages in Chinese. The press release from the Taipei District Court announcing the verdict is 59 pages and this, apparently, is a prelude to the full 1,500-page judgment.

The first 190 pages of the indictment track the $30 million US in campaign donations and $15 million US in presidential discretionary funds on their way to accounts in the Cayman Islands and Switzerland.

This is the money laundering case, but it is only a crime if the money was illegally obtained. And nowhere in the prosecution's case is there evidence that this money was got illegally. There's a lot of supposition and sly suggestion, but no evidence.

The nub of it has always been that Chen says the money was campaign donations, and no one has proven otherwise. Chen is probably guilty of tax evasion -- James Soong, the KMT heavyweight, was busted for that a few years back for doing essentially the same thing with campaign donations -- and like Soong, should pay a massive fine.

Speaking of fines, the government yesterday indicted legislator Diane Lee, daughter of powerful politico Lee Huan, on fraud and forgery charges for failing to disclose her other nationality. If you go back to December and January and read on the Chen and Lee cases, they often co-occur in the media. It sure looks a lot like she is going to be a bit of political theatre, the small sacrifice intended to show that the prosecutor's office is color-blind. And that means that in her own twisted way -- despite what the DPP argues are light charges -- Lee herself is a victim of the politicized judiciary.
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Daily Links

• Chen Verdict Online
• The Atlantic lists the 50 most influential commentators. Note how many are principally bloggers.
• Project 2049 put out two works this week, one on the ballistic missile threat to US naval supremacy from China, the other; Randall Schriver's Congressional testimony on the US-China strategic economic dialogue.
• Robert Gates has brilliant insight, argues that China could undermine US power in the Pacific. No wonder he's a government official and I'm just a pudgy balding blogger. Tune in next week when Gates discovers fire and agriculture.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

New Premier meets rising pro-CCP politician in Hong Kong

One of the most annoying aspects of the communication between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in Taiwan and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is that it remains below the radar in the international media. Even though the international media discusses formal meetings between the two parties, such as Lien Chan's visit to China a few years ago, or the recent Cross-Strait Forum, most of the time the relationship between the CCP and the KMT is presented as if they were a pair of deaf-mutes desperately gesticulating to each other across the vast and unreadable Taiwan Strait. For example, the Economist wrote of President Ma's response to the Dalai Lama's visit:

Mr Ma was well aware that he was taking a risk when he decided on August 27th to approve the Dalai Lama’s request to visit the island.

Of course, Mr. Ma was well aware there was no risk, for everyone in the Chinese cultural world knows that the KMT and the CCP hold regular chats. In fact, it was widely rumored in Taiwan that an envoy had been dispatched to Beijing to discuss the matter and the response was negotiated. Naturally the KMT served Beijing's interests in the Dalai Lama's visit.

The most recent example of this cooperation was that of new Premier, who just prior to taking over the premiership, whisked off to Hong Kong to report to visit with a rising Hong Kong politician who has close connections to the CCP...

The Executive Yuan yesterday said Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) met Hong Kong politician Leung Chun-ying (梁振英) during his visit to Hong Kong on Sept. 5.

Leung is the convenor of the non-official members of the Executive Council of Hong Kong and has been mentioned in Hong Kong media as a likely successor to Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) as the territory’s chief executive in 2012.

Citing the timing of the trip — two days before the announcement that Wu would become premier — the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) accused Wu of meeting Chinese officials to discuss his premiership.

Executive Yuan Spokesman Su Jun-pin (蘇俊賓) yesterday rebutted the claim as “ridiculous.”

“The Republic of China is a sovereign independent country. Saying that Premier Wu had to report to [Chinese authorities] concerning his appointment was a ridiculous allegation,” Su said.

“Premier Wu has been consistent regarding the purpose of his visit to Hong Kong, which was to exchange ideas on disaster prevention measures,” Su said yesterday. “His accusers have to show proof.”

You have to admit, in light of the Chen Shui-bian verdict, that it is refreshing to hear KMT representatives demand proof. Apple Daily commented (translated from the CNA):

What's more bizarre is that one of the officials Wu met was Leung Chun-ying, who is tapped to be the next chief executive of Hong Kong.

We wonder if Taiwan was seeking Beijing's consent through Leung for Wu's appointment.

The Standard of Hong Kong observed:

The Democratic Progressive Party quickly accused Wu of "kowtowing" to Leung, who is tipped to be a candidate in the race for the chief executive. Within five days Wu took over as Taiwan's premier.

"I didn't know Wu would become premier at that time," Leung insisted.

"Such condemnation sounds meaningless. The Taiwan authorities can communicate with the mainland directly and they don't need a middleman," added Leung, who is also a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Standing Committee.

Make up your own minds.

Good advice, that last line. And good question raised here -- since the CCP and the KMT can communicate directly, why send Wu to Hong Kong to "kow-tow"?

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Senkakus in the News again

Right after Ma ascended to power a Taiwanese fishing boat was allegedly rammed and sunk by a Japanese vessel in the Senkaku Islands, which the Chinese call the Diaoyutai (Fishing Platform) islands -- whose territorial ownership President Ma wrote his law school thesis on.

The Senkakus are a classic bit of Chinese territorial expansionism. As John Tkacik pointed out last year, neither the ROC nor the PRC governments considered the Senkakus, Japanese since 1895, to be part of China prior to around 1970. In the late 1960s scientists announced that there might be oil out there, and suddenly both Chinese governments discovered that the Senkakus had been Chinese for every picosecond of the last 5,000 years.

Once again the Senkakus are an irritant, as AFP reports in the Taipei Times, a Taiwanese fishing boat was nabbed in Japanese waters:

Taiwan sent coast guard vessels to disputed waters in the East China Sea where Japan arrested a Taiwanese skipper, accusing him of illegal fishing, officials on both sides said yesterday.

The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said it had dispatched five patrol boats to the area, 110 nautical miles (200km) east of Taiwan, after Japanese officials said they were holding the skipper for questioning.

The incident began late on Sunday, when the Formosa Chieftain No 2, a 49-tonne sports fishing boat, was accosted by Japanese maritime vessels over allegations of fishing illegally, the administration said.

The skipper declined the Japanese officials’ request to board his vessel, arguing he believed he was operating in Taiwanese waters, the CGA said.

The Japanese coast guard said it arrested the 44-year-old skipper on suspicion of violating Japan’s fishing law by being within Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

His boat was carrying one crew member aside from Wang and nine fishing tourists, Japanese authorities said.

The CGA said that while it had sent five vessels to the area, a flotilla of five Japanese maritime vessels was also involved.

Taiwan Today gives a very detailed account.

The other day The Diplomat came out with a nifty article on Chinese military power, which questions western interpretations of it. Arguing that the US is losing its ability to project power in local waters, it observes:

If the US Navy can no longer provide for its flattops’ defense, the PLA Navy is already on the brink of sea denial in nearby waters, while local sea control is coming into sight for Beijing. Nor does the wider naval community share Ross’s confidence in the US Navy’s capacity to enforce sea control in Asia. His admission that the United States can’t ensure the survivability of its carriers, a mission verging on sacrosanct, is cold water in the faces of theater and fleet commanders entrusted with managing events in the western Pacific.

Unlike the US-Taiwan situation, where US defense of the island is shrouded in ambiguity, the US commitment to Japan is defined by treaty. Not only must the US come to Japan's aid in case it is attacked, but in 2006 the US and Japan conducted exercises simulating coming to rescue the Senkakus -- which the US publicly states are administrated by Japan, and thus fall under the wording of the US-Japan treaty -- in case they are invaded.

Japan moved to formally take full sovereignty over the islands in 2005, a move which infuriated Beijing in the way only a bully can be when cheated of his prey. Small though the islands may be, they loom large on the list of the world's flashpoints. The stabilizing presence of the US navy hinges on its ability to project power into the area. If that is called into question....

I argued a while back that the "reduction in tensions" between Taiwan and China hasn't really reduced tensions, so much as enabled China to displace them to elsewhere in Asia. In the 2003-2004 there were several challenges from Chinese groups, including visits to the Senkakus, and in 2005 Chen Shui-bian stupidly asserted Taiwanese sovereignty over the islands. Now another aspect of the "reduction in tensions" between Taiwan and China that is really displaced tensions is that the KMT Administration can increase the tensions over the Senkakus -- acting now as Beijing's proxy -- in this case, sending out 5 Coast Guard craft. Look for more yanking of Tokyo's chain over the islands, enabling Beijing to cheer from the sidelines as China continues its attempts to grab islands in other seas.

A friend of mine suggested that the US really should pay attention to how the Ma Administration handles the Senkaku issue -- because that is how the pro-China Ma really wants to treat the US.
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Daily Links

• Ministry of Foreign Affairs White Paper on Foreign Aid Policy. Important for Taiwan's diplomacy!
• Latest Taiwan What's Up newsletter out (Chinese).
• Remember CSIS head Ralph Cossa's claim that the DPP threatened EFCA? Ma says ECFA by the end of the year, or early next year. No sign that inviting the Dalai Lama had the slightest effect on ECFA. Also note that KMT politicians in the south are concerned about the financial agreements with Beijing -- they know perfectly well who is going to get screwed by that.
  
• Wild at Heart on the protests against the effluent discharge plans for the central Taiwan science park.
• Stephane at Tea Masters has Saturday afternoon tea with lovely pics.
  

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Ma Ying-jeou, comedian.

CTI, pro-KMT to the core, did a story yesterday on Ma once again making his bizarre jokes that are unfunny to their listeners, in this case Morakot refugees. This "Ma-style" joke, the news station announces, has him saying that government workers are not as good as private workers. At about 1:10 he begins:

"These houses were provided by [the Buddhist charitable foundation] Tz Chi. The ... agricultural products by the side of the road were donated by Hon Hai. What is the government doing? Sometimes private organizations are more effective than the government. Because private organizations don't have to follow the government purchasing rules, this regulation, that regulation, government workers also are afraid of making mistakes involving benefits to others. Private organizations don't have these considerations, so they are more effective."

In an earlier event depicted in the video (thanks to maddog & commenter for the correction), a woman stood up and started to discuss something with him. Then he said, apparently thinking he was funny: "Let me finish speaking and then I'll save you."

As the announcer said, it's a Ma style joke.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Daily Links, Sept 14, 2009

My man Michael Klein cruises on the bike trails near Yung-an Fishing port seated comfortably in his recumbent bike.

The news was dominated by the sentencing of Chen Shui-bian this week. Despite that, there's plenty of other stuff going on.

• Hahahaha. A-gu writes on the KMT legislature's move to de-criminalize special funds -- now that A-bian has been convicted. And on indicators of Blue voting preference -- something I have also found.
• The Foreigner rips our Buddhist clergy for their opposition to the Dalai Lama's visit.
• Craig discusses Help Portrait, a cool way for photographers to give back.
• Jerome on a rampage this week. Start with this one on the continuing death of justice in Taiwan.
• Hanjie on the Heart of Love River.
• Lief on a Bunun coming of age festival.
• Taiwan Air Blog on a U-2 mission.
• A history of Soy Sauce in Taiwan, from RTI. And POW camps too.
• Tigers sign Taiwanese pitcher.
• The consistently excellent Pat Cowsill with another good one on ghosts and one of the oldest streets in Taiwan.
• Taiwan Echo argues that privilege is the core spirit of Chinese society.
• Taiwan Law Blog, with his weekly wrap.
• Neil Wade on shooting models.

MEDIA: Taiwan boat detained by Japan in Senkakus. Another view of India-Chinese relations, some weird comments about Taiwan too, and India detains a Chinese cargo plane loaded with weapons. Danny Pang, the Madoff of Taiwan, dies at 42, no foul play suspected. By keeping prices up, Taiwan's three big bike makers hold the line on revenues even as sales fall by double digits. Vegas in the Taiwan Strait: Penghu gambling referendum. Ma save us! Taiwan export decline outstrips Asian rivals. Prosecutors mull more charges against Chen Shui-bian, apparently a ploy to keep him in detention while they look for evidence for the new charges. Low-lying areas in Taiwan to be submerged by the end of the century, warns academic. New Philippine airline puts Taiwan on its lists of destinations. Ordinarily I don't have much respect for Frank Ching's pro-China views, but this time all credit to him for mentioning that Ma and Beijing conducted talks over how to respond to the Dalai Lama's visit, something most of the mainstream press ignored. RealClearWorld has serious problems with its Taiwan coverage. Epoch Times says that Taiwan judiciary is independent of any party. Hey media? Tom Friedman writes crap like this, and you still employ him? No wonder you're losing readers. Taiwan-China MOU could be as early as next month. KMT also plans to extend current county chief terms one year. Most are KMT.... Washington Post says Arunachal Pradesh is "disputed Indian state." Can we stop giving credence to China's territorial ambitions, please? Taitung county magistrate will not be indicted for corruption for tax-payer funded trips to Europe. Aborigines request resettlement plans be suspended.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

AFP Awesomeness, Chinese Childishness

Jerome Cohen speaks on the Chen case.

I don't know what's come over Agence France Presse (AFP), but several of us have been marveling at the far more balanced and in-depth reporting that's been coming out of AFP in the last week or so. Another good piece today from them on the international angst over the Chen verdict, citing Murray Rubenstein, and Jerome Cohen....

But Cohen argued that the way the court handled the case was open to criticism, citing a "disturbing" mid-trial switch to a judge often accused of being biased against the former president.

In a letter to Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou early this year, nearly 30 international scholars warned the "the erosion of the judicial system" could jeopardise Chen's right to a fair trial.

"Taiwan's judicial system must be not only above suspicion but even above the appearance of suspicion, of partiality and political bias," the letter said.

Under Taiwanese law, a sentence of life in jail is automatically appealed, and the new trial will be a chance for the legal system to make up for its shortcomings so far, observers said.

"One hopes the second-instance trial... will redo the case in a way that will lead people to believe that evil has been punished in a fair and proper way," said Cohen.

Legal experts have called for Chen's release from detention so he can prepare his defence in a more unhindered manner than has been the case so far.

"The High Court should give Chen a fair chance to defend himself when he appeals the ruling but this will be very difficult if he is still in custody," said Lin, of the Judicial Reform Commission.

Cohen's criticism is extremely subtle, but powerful. Kudos to him. William Lowther in the Taipei Times had a good piece on US suspicions about the Chen verdict, but the Taipei Times is pro-Taiwan, so it is easier to dismiss its (excellent) reporting. But a thorough piece like this one in the international media is harder to discredit.

..and check out this excellent piece on the woes Taiwan's small manufacturers can expect once the KMT and CCP ink the ECFA 2011 Hu-Ma Nobel Prize Lovefest Sellout Tour agreement....

Wang is among a growing number of small entrepreneurs on the island fearing what will happen to their businesses once the Beijing-friendly government signs an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, or ECFA, with China.

Critics fear that the ECFA, a scaled-down trade pact, will open the floodgates for a deluge of cheap Chinese imports, wiping out low-tech industries such as Wang's.

China's competitive labour is often cited as key, but there are other factors behind the mainland's export juggernaut.

One example: Taiwan's tile makers are required to use natural gas, a relatively clean energy source, to meet strict environmental laws, but their Chinese rivals use coal, which is more polluting but six times cheaper.

There are around 50 ceramic plants in Taiwan, and few are safe if the ECFA becomes a reality.

It's rare to read any criticism of ECFA in the international media. Great work, guys.

This piece on the Frankfurt Book Exhibition displays one of the worst examples of crawling on your belly in front of China I have ever had the misfortune to read.

The symposium, entitled "China and the world - perception and reality," was initially intended to clear up prejudices about the guest country - China - ahead of the 2009 Frankfurt Book Fair, which begins in mid-October.

The event had been intended as a promotional preamble but soon became a PR nightmare when China made it clear that if the organizers persisted in including dissident writers, it would pull out of the symposium altogether.

The fair's organizers bowed to Chinese pressure and Bei Ling, Dai Qing and several other dissident authors found that their invitations had been revoked.

The climax of the piece is the organizer apologizing because the local mayor had talked about democracy, and so the delegation had walked out. The backstory is that Bei Ling was going to give a talk on the politics and censorship and its effects in the publishing industry in China. Totally factual, so naturally Beijing couldn't have that. A second key fact is that China is now a huge market for books and a huge supplier of printing services and paper. The irony of the exhibition's title is painful....

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, bloggers and journalists critical of China are being detained, thanks to China's growing economic clout and position as lender of last resort to Vietnam.

Finally, don't miss this interesting article from the Jamestown Foundation China Brief on The Geopolitics of Cross-Strait disaster Relief with some fascinating glimpses of lost history:

....The provision of sanctioned disaster relief between Mainland China and Taiwan has been a regular occurrence since the mid-1980s, while the KMT’s efforts to influence mainlanders through propaganda-laden relief efforts extend further back in time. In May 1950, the semi-official Free China Relief Association, which was established that year by the KMT to provide aid to refugees from China, conducted air drops of 70,000 tons of Taiwanese rice along with propaganda texts over much of eastern China, labeling their bags, “mainland disaster famine [relief], from Taiwan compatriots.” In February 1961, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry floated balloons carrying food and clothes in a humanitarian gesture from Quemoy Island to the mainland in response to reports of famine following the disastrous Great Leap Forward campaign. In 1976 following the earthquake that leveled Tangshan, the Free China Relief Association floated 170,000 balloons with relief supplies across the Strait when Taiwan’s offers of aid were officially rejected by Beijing.

There's also discussion of CCP vs. KMT disaster relief in other countries, rather like the old SPY VS SPY in Mad Magazine.....
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Daily Links

• Future herpes pin-up girl from Taiwan plans to kiss 100 men in Paris, write book. Would it work for me?
• Bruce Jacobs with a moving discussion of the investigations into White Terror killings, and his own involvement.
• Jacobs again on Morakot and the its implications for Ma's presidency.
• Portnoy collects responses to Chen verdict on local blogs.
  

Totally Awesome: Winners of Astronomical Photography Contest, utterly amazing photos

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forum

Statements on Chen Verdict

Some statements: First from Dr. Michael Stainton, President of the Taiwanese Human Rights Association of Canada.

+++++++++++++++

Guilty by verdict, by not by evidence

On September 11 the Taipei District Court issued a verdict and sentence in the bundle of corruption cases centered on former President Chen Shui-bian and first lady Wu Shu-chen. To the surprise of no one, Judge Tsai Shou-hsun found them guilty on all the charges in the Special Prosecutor’s Office December 2008 bill of indictment, and imposed the maximum penalty. President Chen was sentenced to life imprisonment, permanently stripped of his civil rights, and fined two hundred million NT$ (US$6 million). Wu Shu-chen received the same sentence except she was fined three hundred million. Other accused received far lighter sentences.

There are actually several cases here. Readers can be forgiven for not wanting to know all the details. But this case should be of concern because it is one more piece of evidence that the process of democratization in Taiwan is being reversed as the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) moves this island ever closer mother China, where a trial like that of President Chen would be normal operating procedure. A brief review of the charges, even without recounting the procedural absurdities and injustices which have marred the process, can show why Chen’s lawyers and foreign Taiwan watchers predicted exactly this outcome.

The first is case is about money laundering. Chen is now convicted of transferring stolen money overseas to avoid detection. However, we still do not know if it was actually stolen. If one has the stamina to read the 202 pages of Chinese in the indictment, one first crawls through some 190 pages detailing a mind-numbing multitude of bank transfers and how Wu Shu-Chen, her children and her brother moved large amounts of cash around the world. In this there is no mention of President Chen being involved. Finally, after the 194th page, the indictment exclaims how could President Chen not have known about all this, and baldly states that he was a knowing and willful co-conspirator. But the only bit of evidence it presents linking Chen to all this is that he once made a phone call to a bank about a problem with one of these accounts. Other evidence of the crimes of President Chen is a brief sermon about how he violated the high principles of his presidential oath of office, and showed a bad and unrepentant attitude by refusing to confess his guilt.

Moving money around the world is only money laundering if the money is illegally obtained and so needs to be laundered, and here the evidence presented in the indictment is equivocal. Most of the money involved was the surplus from the presidential election campaigns of 2000 and 2004. In Taiwan surplus election funds are the personal property of the candidate, and there are no clear laws on its use or requirements that it be held for future elections. Everyone in Taiwan deplores this situation, but the laws have been kept loose for years precisely to facilitate the KMT’s own use of its own immense resources. Along with most of the other bills the Chen administration presented to the KMT-controlled legislature, attempts at legal reforms were deferred, blocked or mutilated by amendments.

In several public statements even before he was arrested Chen apologized that he had not acted wisely or transparently in the use of his election funds, but also pleaded that as president he had neither the time nor legal right to be involved in the financial dealings of his family. Wu managed all their money. It is widely known in Taiwan, even among their friends, that Wu loved money and that in recent years her relations with her husband had become strained. Chen claims that when these accusations became news he questioned her about them and that she was less than honest with him, so that he was not in the loop.

Chen is also accused of misuse of state funds – embezzlement – in relation to the secret foreign affairs and presidential discretionary funds which he used the same way as previous presidents. The difference is that previous presidents were all KMT and so their use did not constitute misuse. More astounding is that the detailed figures of use of these funds and Chen’s bank records gives no evidence that President Chen pocketed any of these monies, but the assumption of guilt was good enough for Judge Tsai.

The third charge is receiving bribes in the case of land acquisition for a high tech science park, and here it is proved that monetary gifts were given to Mrs. Chen who inserted herself into these negotiations. However, all testimony in this case agreed that President Chen had no involvement in the land negotiations or knowledge of the gift. One could reasonably conclude with the prosecutor “how could he not know”, but this begs the question – your knowledge of the wrongdoing of others is not a basis for finding you guilty of their crime.

To make this more interesting, there is a very recent precedent in Taiwan of a bribery case involving a senior politician and his wife. In 2006 the magistrate of Hsinchu County, Zheng Yongjin, was convicted of receiving a bribe from a contractor in pursuit of work on a large project. The “moon cake box” case was the subject of much merriment in Taiwan as the contractor (who sang like a birdie once he was arrested) delivered the money as a gift in a box of moon cakes. This was received at the door of their home by the magistrate’s wife. Mr. Zheng continued to serve as magistrate even after his conviction while he appealed. In December 2008 the appeal court found him not guilty because there was no proof that the magistrate himself received the money or knew it was given by the contractor. You might think this would be a precedent in the case against President Chen, but this shows how little you know about the reborn Republic of China’s justice system. Mr. Zheng is a loyal member of the KMT and was convicted while the party was out of power. In December 2008 the KMT was back in power and the party-state was getting back to normal operation.

In contrast to Magistrate Zheng who continued to administer the affairs of a Hsinchu county as a convicted criminal, President Chen was arrested as soon as the charges against him were laid, on November 11, 2008 and has been detained as a “major felon” ever since. I discovered what this meant in June when I became the first foreigner to visit him. There are three kinds of visiting rooms – the “regular prisoner visiting room” where face to face visits take place, the “special visiting room” where you can sit on a sofa and have tea together. I visited a Columbus Leo, a Taiwanese Canadian charged with the crime of advocating Taiwan independence, in this room in 1990. I saw President Chen in the “major felon visiting room”, a hot stark cell divided by a wall and thick plate glass. You talk through a telephone, controlled and watched by a guard from a glass wall beside you. Chen was also accompanied by a guard in his half of the cell taking notes during our twenty minute visit.

One might think that the President of the country for 8 years might get the special visiting room, if only for the dignity of the country, but this fails to take account of the fact that Chen was the unabashed President of Taiwan, and we are now back in the old Republic of China, so not the same country. He is getting special treatment though. Even his discussions with his lawyers were recorded (and sometimes leaked) until protests from lawyers associations led the Council of Justices (Taiwan’s equivalent of a Supreme Court) to say this was unconstitutional, but still gave the prosecutors 4 months to clean up its act.

Chen did apply for release on bail, and this was granted once, on December 13 after the Special Prosecutors Office announced the completion of its investigation. But KMT politicians and media raised such a cry of outrage that three days later the judge who granted him bail was removed from the case (and also threatened with impeachment) and the new judge, Mr. Tsai who has just found him guilty of everything, immediately ordered him detained again on the claim that he might flee the country (this though he is accompanied by an ex-presidential security guard at all times), or seek to cover up evidence (despite the fact that the Special prosecutor’s Office began investigating all these charges in 2006) or that he might collude with others to influence their testimony (despite the completion of the investigation). Another later bail application was denied because Chen had not been “cooperative” with the court.

There has not been a show trial or a political sentence like this in Taiwan since the 1980 military trials of the Taiwanese opposition after Kaohsiung Incident. Ironically, Chen Shui-bian was one of the defense lawyers in those show trials. Things have come full circle. After two decades of astounding the world with its vibrant democratization and spunky nationalism in the face of Chinese threats, Taiwan is once again the Republic of China. Under the KMT the justice system once again serves the larger interest of the party.

(Michael Stainton is President of the Taiwanese Human Rights Association of Canada)

+++++++++++++++

The Democratic Progressive Party’s Statement Concerning
The September 11 verdict in the case of Former President Chen:

1. Taiwan is a democratic country and in dealing with former President Chen’s case, the judicial process should be objective and follow legal principles, avoiding any subjective and political bias in order to safeguard Taiwan’s democratic values. We can see that during this first trial the process contained flaws and disputes that were clearly in violation of procedural justice. These actions included the continued detention of former President Chen, changing judges during the trial and today’s heavy sentence. This confirms doubts from the outside and makes it hard to convince people that the judicial process is trustworthy.

2. The same judge presided over the cases of former President Chen's state affairs fund case and then-Mayor Ma Ying-jeou’s special affairs fund case. Former President Chen was given a sentence of life imprisonment while President Ma was found not guilty. With such diametrically different results, society will find it difficult to accept the verdict in former President Chen’s case.

3. The DPP has great expectations of the judicial system of Taiwan, but it expresses its deep regret concerning the trial process and heavy sentence given former President Chen. The DPP supports former President Chen’s appeal in order to ensure that he has the legal right to defend himself. At the same time, we also expect that the unfairness and errors of the first trial will be closely supervised and corrected during the appeal process.

4. The DPP believes that there is no necessity in detaining Former President Chen after this first trial. . We appeal to the court to end this detention, giving Former President Chen the right to exercise his legal rights and prepare for his defense.

5. In regards to the selection of judges for the appeal, we ask the High Court to be transparent and open, in accordance with legal procedures and to also accept outside supervision.

6. We must appeal to all walks of life, especially the ruling party, not to politicize the case of former President Chen in order to turn the public spotlight away from government inefficiency. We also appeal to the public to avoid provocative remarks that would result in emotional confrontation in our society.

7. Whether one stands for or against Former President Chen, it must be sincerely pointed out that the proceedings of the judicial system contained defects, which were caused by political interference in the judicial system as well as by the judges being somewhat prejudiced in their sentences. In addition, we also saw the continued detention of former President Chen harm our human rights system. We hope that the community can now focus on judicial human rights and jointly support judicial reform.

8. As the KMT holds a 75% majority in the Legislative Yuan, we demand that in his role as KMT Chair President Ma take up the responsibility to support and promote amendment of the "Code of Criminal Procedure" and "Judges Law" for the reform of human rights violations in the detention system and also eliminate unsuitable judges. Last year the DPP put forward an amendment to the "Code of Criminal Procedure", and we ask that in the shortest time possible, this amendment be passed.

9. We wish to make clear that honesty and clean politics are the unflinching values of the Democratic Progressive Party and the basis upon which people place their trust in politicians. Whether or not a politician or political party has been honest and practiced clean politics must be judged through a fair administration of justice and a clear set of standards. The people of Taiwan have placed high expectations in the DPP, which the DPP must treasure.

In regards to former President Chen’s action of remitting funds overseas, the DPP considers this action to have mixed public and private funds and to be in violation of the DPP’s Independent Commission against Corruption regulations. Regarding former President Chen’s management of political funds, the DPP believes it triggered disputes between government and business entities, and failed to meet society’s expectations. In regards to former President Chen and his family, the DPP believes former President Chen was negligent in constraining them, resulting in the many negative criticisms from the public. The DPP firmly holds to the standpoint that for these errors, former President Chen must take political responsibility.

+++++++++++++++

FAPA EXPRESSES OUTRAGE OVER
SENTENCING OF FORMER PRESIDENT CHEN

The Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA), a Washington DC-based advocacy organization of Taiwanese Americans, today expressed outrage over the heavy sentences meted out on September 11th 2009 in Taipei to former President Chen Shui-bian and his wife Wu Shu-chen.

“This is political persecution by judicial means” states FAPA President Prof. Bob Yang. He adds: “Chen’s real “crime” is that he pushed the entrenched Kuomintang regime out of office in 2000, and moved Taiwan in the direction of freedom and independence.”

Yang adds: “Many international scholars have expressed concern about the legal process. If we examine similar past graft cases in Taiwan and other countries around the world, this unusually heavy sentence given to Chen only reinforces the belief of many Taiwanese citizens and international scholars that the charges against Chen are politically motivated. FAPA calls upon the KMT authorities to release former President Chen pending the further appeal procedures, which are bound to take a long time. His incarceration is making it sheer impossible for him to build an adequate defense, denying him a truly fair trial.”

Yang concludes: “The Kuomintang government could have moved Taiwan in the right direction by conducting a scrupulously fair trial. Instead, they blew their chance and turned it into a political circus, deepening the political divide in Taiwan.”

“It is a sad day for Taiwan’s young democracy.”

The life sentences to Chen and his wife are making it increasingly difficult to bridge the political divisions on the island. In the 1980s and 1990s, Chen was part of the vanguard of the island’s democracy movement, mainly consisting of native Taiwanese who had been kept out of the political by the ruling Kuomintang, which came over from China after World War II.

Historical Background

During some four decades of Martial Law (from 1949 through 1987), the Kuomintang regime – first headed by Chiang Kai-shek and later by his son Chiang Ching-kuo – ruled with iron fist, in a one-party system which ruthlessly dealt with political opponents. Chen and his wife themselves were victims of this system: in 1985 Chen served eight months in prison on political charges, while Wu Shu-chen was paralyzed from the waist down after being hit by a truck during a post-campaign rally.

Taiwan’s transition to democracy in the late 1980s and early 1990s was largely due to the determination and persistence of the group of opposition members of the Democratic Progressive Party, of which Chen was a leading member. His election to the presidency in 2000 was the culmination of Taiwan’s quest for democracy.

Observers in Taiwan and abroad agree that Chen may have made mistakes during his presidency, but that the charges against him, and the way the judicial process was carried out, reflect a heavy political bias. They point to the incommunicado detention during the first month after his November 11th arrest, the mysterious switching of judges at the end of December 2008.

+++++++++++++++++

Jerome Cohen, who has been exemplary on the Chen case, spoke in guarded but nevertheless revealing ways in the Taipei Times:

If former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) appeals, US legal expert Jerome Cohen said yesterday, he would prefer to see Chen released, as it would be difficult for Chen to build a case while in detention.

“Every society has to protect human rights. This is a long process and a learning process for Taiwan. It is a very sad day, it is also a very important day,” he told reporters after visiting Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) at the legislature yesterday morning.

Cohen, who was a mentor to President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) when he studied at Harvard Law School, said the Chen case took a long time and that people could learn a lot from it.

Saying that the day was important for Taiwan’s judicial system, Cohen said he was anxious to know the result of the case and that he hoped the public would pay attention to issues relating to judiciary procedure and human rights.

All around the world there exist countries in which tense relations between two parties helped battle corruption in politics while protecting human rights, he said.

There are many problems within the judiciary and the power of custody needs to be used carefully because it is an instrument that can have huge effects, he said, adding that if Chen appeals he should be released to prepare his case.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Chen Gets Life =UPDATED=

We'll let the Financial Times carry the ball, it shows the good and the bad of the media reporting:

Judge Tsai Shou-hsun gave the 59-year-old former president the harshest possible sentence for the charges and fined him T$200m ($6.1m). Former first lady Wu Shu-jen, who was also convicted of corruption, was also given a life sentence but will not have to go to prison because of her frail health. She was fined T$300m ($9.2m).

“One person’s greed has caused chaos throughout the whole country,” Judge Tsai said.

"Chaos throughout the whole country!" Wouldn't want to be revealing any biases, would ya, Judge Tsai? ROFL. The life sentence was in the cards back when prosecutors piled on new charges several months ago, which the media then breathlessly reported could result in life, signaling where everything was going. It was also in the cards when the judges were switched under heavy pressure from the KMT. And when Chen was detained again and again. And when.....

A life sentence for Wu, Chen's crippled wife, would probably be very short. FT also reported on the case, letting readers know that there was another point of view on Chen:

Mr Chen was Taiwan’s only president not to come from the nationalist Kuomintang party, which fled to Taiwan in 1949 after civil war in China. While many Taiwanese have since become disillusioned with him and his family, there was also growing disquiet through the course of the trial over Mr Chen’s treatment by the authorities.

Lots of media reports pointed out that the Chen trials were seen by many as rigged. Kudos, mediafolks. But even better, AFP actually reported that foreign experts had expressed concerns about the trial, not merely Chen's supporters:

Some legal experts had expressed concern about the handling of the case, including the court's decision to detain Chen before his trial and to switch the presiding judge.

Jerome A. Cohen, a US legal scholar and President Ma's former tutor at Harvard University, said that if there were an appeal, he would prefer to see Chen released for the time being.

"Every society has to protect human rights. This is a long process and a learning process for Taiwan. It is a very sad day, it is also a very important day," he told reporters.

The balance and high quality of the AFP piece, including its reconfiguration of The 'split in 1949' Formula, is a welcome change from previous AFP work. Good work, folks.

I am informed that it is normal to be out on appeal before such sentences are imposed. Whether they will let Chen out during the appeal process, we'll know on Monday, I'm told. Note that because there are so many charges, it will be difficult for Chen to win an appeal on all.

Back to FT -- ya gotta love this hoot from FT, describing his tenure as president:

Foreign and domestic investors alike despaired of the ever-increasing tensions with China and the harm that would do to Taiwan’s export-oriented economy.

Pure horseshit, this belief (not to pick on FT, these constructions are common). It is certainly true that there people who did buy this propaganda (Taipei seems full of them), but the reality is that foreign direct investment reached record highs in 2006, again in 2007... in Jan of 2008 the CEPD noted:

Foreign investment over the years has also seen a notable increase. The CEPD said that, from 2001 to 2006, yearly foreign investment averaged USD 5.69 billion – nearly twice the yearly average from 1993-1999 (USD 2.85 billion). Moreover, 2006 saw a record-breaking total in foreign investment of USD 13.97 billion. From Jan. to Oct. of 2007, foreign investment totaled USD 12.93 billion, said the CEPD.

Yes, the investment climate sure sucked, being much better than under Lee Teng-hui. If investors were worried, they sure didn't show it until 2008, when at last there was a downturn, though in the first four months it rose again year on year. There's no need to even discuss exports, which reached record highs under Chen, with Taiwan passing Korea as the number 2 exporter to China. Sure am glad Ma Ying-jeou has saved us with record economic growth, rising exports, low unemployment, and booming income growth. The nation is hardly recognizable....

It would be nice if this piece had contextualized these claims with the facts. Imagine if the last sentence in the FT piece had been followed by a sentence that described the actual economic performance of Taiwan under the Chen Administration.

FT then crashes and burns:

Politically, however, Mr Chen was a survivor who eked out a narrow re-election victory in 2004 and remained in office even after his widening corruption scandal prompted an impeachment attempt backed by island-wide protests that were the biggest in Taiwan’s history.

No mention that the "island-wide protests" appear to have been orchestrated by the Nationalists and contained almost entirely pan-Blues, as reported early on by FT itself, AP, and finally, conceded by their putative leader, Shih Ming-te, in his interview with Keith Bradsher in the NYTimes. And wouldn't it have been better to add "by the KMT-dominated legislature" after "impeachment attempt?" Finally, the anti-secession law protests in were probably bigger -- even the low police estimate was a million. That's debateable, however.

It ain't over. The appeals could drag on for years.....

Reports from BBC, Taiwan News, AFP's surprisingly excellent and very balanced report including quote from Jerome Cohen, CNN, AP's sturdily balanced and detailed report, the Asia Times piece with a hilarious faith-statement quote from a Hong Kong academic instead of a Taiwan one, a cite of a KMT legislator, and a cite of a China Taiwan specialist. No bias there. UPDATE: Demotix, citizen journalist site, with excellent spread of pics on the scene at the court. UPDATE 2: Taiwan News rips the verdict in advance.

UPDATE 3: Excellent comments below, don't miss'em. Note that the people who "bribed" Chen are getting slaps on the wrist.
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Daily Links:

• The Diplomat excoriates western understandings of Chinese naval modernization.
• Lately there has been an incredible spew of bad media stuff. Enjoy another candidate for dumbest.article.ever: White men and their Asian Trophy Wives from Marie Claire. Then to make your brain functional again, read this excellent response.
• TSMC sues Shanghai Semiconductor for stealing secrets, they settle, TSMC says Shanghai reneged, sues in US court. China, your good cooperation partner.
  
• Annual US-Taiwan Defense Industry conference this month
  

EVENTS: The Age of Stupid premieres on Sept 22 in Taiwan. Film is about a man in 2055 looking back on 2008 and wondering why we let global warming destroy the world. Starts at 1:30 at the 台北市國軍文藝活動中心Armed Forces Cultural Center 69 Chunghwa Rd. Sec. 1, Taipei

Also: Taiwan in UN Protest
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Time: 11:00am - 2:00pm
Location: 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York City
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Doing the Cabinet Shuffle

The nation awaits the verdict on former President Chen Shui-bian, but today it greets Ma Ying-jeou's new cabinet, led by longtime Taiwanese KMT politico Wu Den-yih. The Taipei Times profiled him today. The scuttlebutt is that Wu, 61, is a transitional appointment....

“His lack of personal skills and confrontational personality will be obstacles for him, as he will need to work closely with the legislature and party members,” said Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a political commentator from National Tung Hua University.

Shih said Wu shared traits with outgoing premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄), who also had a problematic relationship with the KMT-dominated legislature and often comes across as aloof, and said Wu would probably be a “transitional premier” chosen by Ma to help cultivate vice premier-designate Eric Chu (朱立倫) as his successor.

Chu is already being mentioned as Presidential material in a KMT starved of up and coming politicians. Ma is Chairman of the KMT, while Wu and Chu are ranking KMT members. Ma promised he would keep party and government separate, but the reality is that they are increasingly intertwined.

Wu is a Taiwanese from Nantou who is also the former mayor of Kaohsiung, beaten by Frank Hsieh in the 1998 election. Those of you who have been here since the 1990s may reflect on what Kaohsiung was like before Hsieh cleaned it up. Taiwan News delicately hints at some of the issues:

For example, both Wu and Chu will surely be more decisive in crisis management or disaster response than their technocratic predecessors, but will also deeply linked with local KMT and financial factions and are impregnated with the flavor of "money politics."

.....

Moreover, the fact that Ma has been forced to accelerate the transition from old guard KMT technocrats to younger former mayors and legislators shows both a welcome turn to respect the public will but also exposes the KMT's worrying shortage of senior executive talent able to govern a democratic, pluralistic and globalized Taiwan.

An analysis piece on the cabinet reshuffle pointed out the conventional wisdom, that the major purpose of the reshuffle was to bring in people who can help Ma win in 2012.

The looming Cabinet reshuffle has helped boost President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) odds of winning re-election in 2012, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said yesterday.

The center said the likelihood of Ma winning the next presidential election rose to 63.2 percent, an increase of 11.4 percentage points from its Aug. 20 forecast, which was the lowest point since the center began tracking the issue in April.

At this point Ma looks like a lock for 2012, with the DPP weak and no rising politician in either party to challenge him. The reshuffle keeps out politicians such as former chairman Wu Po-hsiung, who is in a powerful faction opposed to Ma. Su Chi, the powerful and influential head of the NSC, whom many see as pulling the strings of Ma's presidency, retained his position as head of the NSC.

The legislature is not likely to be any kinder to the new cabinet than the old:

KMT Legislator Chiu Yi (邱毅) said the Executive Yuan should enhance communications with caucus members but it should not use the meetings to demand full support from KMT lawmakers, while fellow lawmaker Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順) said there would be no “honeymoon period” for the new Cabinet.

I suspect that the increasing number of cabinet reshuffles under President Chen and now, looming in the Ma administration -- if this one is transitional, as everyone expects, then Ma will have had at least three premiers in 4 years -- is in part due to the system searching for an executive solution to the problem of our intransigent, useless legislature.

The CNA profiled new Defense Minister Kao today....

Since graduating from the Republic of China Military Academy (ROCMA) in 1968, Kao has held a variety of command and staff positions in his military career, including General of the 10th Army Corps, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the army, and Commanding General of the Combined Logistics Command.

Kao is also widely recognized for his efforts, including dispatching relief and assistance to victims, during the devastating 921 Earthquake which struck Taiwan in 1999 when he was the General of the 10th Army Corps.

After Typhoon Morakot last month brought the worst flooding and mudslides to Taiwan in 50 years, Kao was appointed as the leading deputy executive officer of the the Executive Yuan's Post-Disaster Reconstruction Commission.

Kao is one of the few military officers whose performance has been recognized by both the former and incumbent ruling parties.

Pan-Blue media organ TVBS says that only 40% found the appointment suitable, while the pro-KMT UDN has a poll on the Wu-Chu appointment that says:

The poll results indicate 41 percent of those surveyed endorse Wu as new premier, while 25 percent show no support for the arrangement.

As to the newly appointed vice premier, 53 percent of the respondents approved of Chu, with only 14 percent expressing dissatisfaction.

The survey also indicates a total of 60 percent of pan-blue followers support Wu’s appointment. However, only 35 percent of pan-green backers applauded Wu’s new position.

I wish them luck, and hope that the new cabinet will perform better than the old, for the sake of everyone on the island, Blue and Green.
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Daily Links

• How China cooks its books
• Lief in Taiwan: Morakot aftermath pics.
• The Mental Floss article saying Ma is one of the five gutsiest presidents. Hope it's parody...
• Maddog notes that, with Ma's actual rating at 16% in the TVBS, Bloomberg uses a UDN poll that has him at 29%.
• Daily Bubble Tea has the links today
• Who knew what a comedian Ma was? He vows to make rule of law his legacy....
  

Excerpt (no link): SCMP: Beijing wants KMT's help in making WWII films.

After years of playing the villain in mainland films and television dramas, Kuomintang soldiers are set to be portrayed as heroes who saved the nation from the imperial Japanese army and led China to the final victory. The mainland has approached Taiwan to jointly produce several films glorifying the heroic acts of KMT soldiers in China's epic struggle with Japanese invaders from 1937 to 1945, a Taiwanese newspaper has reported.

For most mainlanders growing up and watching films in which KMT soldiers are inevitably depicted as useless cowards or villains, a drastic change has been quietly taking place in mainland cinemas over the past few years. For decades, Beijing and the state-controlled film industry seldom mentioned the role played by KMT armies in the Sino-Japanese war. The focus instead was always on communist soldiers or guerilla fighters, despite them playing only a marginal role in the struggle. Now with warming ties across the Taiwan Strait, Beijing is eager to stress common roots.

NOTHING TO DO WITH TAIWAN: Census Bureau to announce major new findings on poverty and health insurance in the US today at 11 am East coast time. If you want to argue, there's the data....
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Our Predictable Establishment Commentators: Cossa in SCMP

Interesting week looking ahead -- new cabinet and premier to be announced tomorrow -- by presidential spokesman, and not by the president himself, a change in protocol -- and on Friday, the verdict in the Chen Shui-bian trial.

If anyone out there in the States can image and send to me the Mental Floss magazine article from this month that hilariously named Ma Ying-jeou as one of the world's five gutsiest leaders, I'd be eternally grateful forever for it.

A couple of weeks ago, when the DPP extended an invitation to their ally in the fight against Chinese colonialism, the Dalai Lama, I observed:

And how will the international media handle this conjuction of the freedom movement in Tibet, which it is sympathetic to, and Taiwan's pro-independence forces, who are (it goes without saying) "radicals" who "provoke" Beijing.

I think the answer was, predictably, Door Number Two on that one. Ralph Cossa of CSIS Pacific Forum, the all-Establishment-all-the-time think tank, had a long commentary in SCMP today about which it can only be said that if you want to consume tripe, Hakka style is definitely preferable to this. Onward and upward:

Taiwan opposition ploy effective but dangerous
Ralph Cossa
Updated on Sep 09, 2009

Right there in the title we have our Taiwan opposition, the DPP, out there being "dangerous." Gotta be careful of the pro-Taiwan, pro-democracy side. Next thing ya know, they'll have a referendum or something! Also, compare this to the Economist, which noted: "Chinese officials may be pleased that the DPP has apparently gained little." The DPP is "dangerous but effective", the DPP "gained little." You say tomato, I say fan chieh.

After a paragraph on how there were "serious concerns" about Taiwan's democracy a year ago thanks to the DPP, branded as incompetent and corrupt, and total KMT control of all aspects of the central government, Cossa goes on to say:

What a difference a year makes. Today, the DPP is resurgent and seems to have the Ma administration and KMT on the ropes. It may not have been very good at running the country, but it has proved itself to be a formidable force when it comes to its more traditional opposition role. One is tempted to tip one's hat to the DPP, except for one slight matter: its success is increasingly coming at the expense of Taiwan's economic recovery and potentially at a risk to its security,as well.

It's totally overblown to describe the DPP as "resurgent." The DPP is still pretty much where it was in May of last year when Ma became president. Rather, what's happened is that KMT control of the government has simply given the Party of the Dead Dictator every opportunity to display incompetence at whatever it turns its hand to, from economic recovery to typhoon relief. As a special bonus, Ma's signature projects as Taipei mayor, the Neihu subway line, and the trolley cars, are a mess. Despite controlling the legislature, stimulus bills have been passed tardily or not at all. One could go on. Suffice to say we are not looking at a rising DPP, but a flatpeter KMT.

But being Establishment to the core, Cossa makes his point: the DPP resurgence is affecting Taiwan's security and economy! Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my! I love the next paragraph's opening sentence, so wonderful in its unstated implications:

Take its latest political manoeuvre, for example.

....for example!!! You know, because it is one of many examples of DPP threats to the security and economy of Taiwan. I wonder if Cossa has written as feelingly on the KMT's blocking of the special arms purchases over 60 times of the legislature. Couldn't find one when I looked today.

Cossa discusses the invitation, and says it was a "stroke of genius for an opposition party that seems to have the majority running scared." Yes, the KMT is so scared it has been deterred from indicting and locking up DPP politicians left and right. Oh wait, it has been doing that. If only the DPP really did have the KMT on the ropes....

Cossa discusses the reaction of Beijing, and observes:

Thus far, Beijing's response has been muted: ritualistic protests and the cancellation of a number of events aimed at highlighting improved cross-strait relations. But there is a real danger that Beijing will, at some point, reach the conclusion that the Ma administration is too weak and incompetent to deal with and revert to its old tactic: marginalising Taiwan and limiting its political and economic opportunities.

This could put at risk Taipei's attempts to negotiate an economic co-operation framework agreement - in effect, a cross-strait free-trade agreement (FTA) - with the mainland. Such an agreement is not only significant in its own right, as a boost to Taiwan's economic recovery, but is expected to open the door for similar FTAs between Taiwan and many of its Southeast Asian neighbours and, perhaps, even with the US.

There are at least two key points omitted -- and probably deliberately so -- in this discussion. The first is that Beijing very much wants ECFA because it is a huge step forward in its desire to annex the island and hollow out its industries on its way to do that. For the same reasons, Ma and other KMT heavyweights want it. The second key point is that the KMT and the CCP are in constant communication and obviously discussed the reaction to the Dalai Lama's visit. Hence, there was never any threat to ECFA -- if only there had been! -- and all this is really just Cossa's way of taking a completely egregious swipe at the DPP.

After accusing the DPP of unnecessarily antagonizing Beijing -- once again, since Beijing determines when it is antagonized, Cossa is essentially arguing that the DPP submit its foreign policy to Beijing's approval (all "antagonizing" is unnecessary in Beijing's eyes) -- Cossa moves on to take a by-now patented slam at the DPP, which everyone will now recognize as the current Establishment position (see Jerome Cohen's op-ed in AWSJ for entirely similar sentiments)

Perhaps the time has come for the DPP to understand that the role of a responsible opposition is not just to oppose everything for the sake of embarrassing the party in power but to craft policies that serve both its and the people's interests.

Yes, the current slam -- circulating in Taipei as the conventional wisdom and repeated to me as if it were gospel by my Blue friends and of course, by the Really Knowledgeable types up in Chinatown the capital, is that the DPP is objecting for the sake of objecting. He ends by claiming:

It also seems hard to believe that the KMT, for all its political clout, has been unable to take its case to the people of Taiwan and has instead allowed the DPP to seize the initiative.

Dr. Cossa, the KMT can't "take its case to the people" because there is no rational case for an ECFA whose real purpose is to integrate the island so tightly with China that it will be effectively annexed, which will whack 7-9% off the size of our IT sector and about which both pro-DPP and pro-KMT think tanks have tendered very equivocal analyses (what? You didn't put those facts in your op-ed? How did that happen?). The KMT instead is "isolating the case from the people", ensuring that there is no democratic oversight, and conducting negotiations on a party to party basis. The KMT doesn't want to take the case to the people.

Moreover, note the glaring problem, as the observant person who flipped me this piece noted: Cossa says that the DPP should not make waves else Taiwan will be marginalized. As if it is not marginalized now? No, Cossa's argument is that Taiwan should marginalize itself now so we can partake of the glorious future later -- simply a US version of the KMT Cargo Cult view of China: if we just build that ECFA runway, Chinese planes will land and disgorge plenty of cargo for all!

Cossa, like many Establishment commentators, argues that Taiwan needs the ECFA with China so that it can then follow it up with free trade agreements with other nations, FTAs that China is currently preventing. But as Chao Wen-hung pointed out in the Taipei Times a couple of weeks ago, there is absolutely no reason for China to permit Taiwan to have FTAs after ECFA. By preventing FTAs, China will force Taiwan firms to relocate to China to take advantage of China's FTAs with other countries. Veterans will already be able to hear China's claims: "Taiwan, as part of China, has no need of FTAs of its own since it can already partake of China's FTAs."

I'd like to believe Establishment assurances that we'll get our FTAs, but I seem to recall that before and after the election, there was a slew of articles in which legions of US Establishment analysts hinted/predicted that China should reduce/eliminate the missile threat facing Taiwan, among them Cossa (in the Taipei Times, no less). In fact, Cossa himself said he thought there'd be some kind of missile draw down. And what happened? Well, a year later, Richard Bush, the longtime US government Taiwan specialist who is to inscrutable what Bergman was to beautiful, was forced to wonder aloud why China hasn't reduced its missiles facing Taiwan. Meanwhile the silence from the all those other analysts who said that China would reduce its missiles.... stretches.
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Chen defense from NeoFormosa Mag

I've uploaded an extremely long post to my backup blog that consists of a detailed discussion from the Chen Shui-bian defense team of his case, from Neo Formosa Magazine, the old Formosa mag in current reincarnation. That was the mag Chen was part of when he was sent to jail in the 1980s.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!