Sunday, December 11, 2011

Piggies Rule

Yesterday was piggy day in Taipei (friend's video on FB). The DPP said 70,000 piggy banks were delivered to party HQ around the nation:
Thousands of supporters returned piggy banks yesterday, with the DPP’s headquarters in Pingtung County receiving about 1,200 piggy banks within two hours of opening its doors at 10 am.

The DPP’s regional campaign headquarters in Greater Taichung also saw a huge response, with supporters bringing in piggy banks weighing 70kg on a shoulder-pole. In Chiayi County, a supporter showed up with three live piglets, which immediately became the focus of many photographs.
In Taipei the DPP also said 50,000 people showed up to drop off piggy banks. Friends who were there said it certainly seemed like there were that many.

Meanwhile, despite the smear over a biotech investment (see post below this one) the DPP continues to gain momentum. Earlier today the NCCU prediction market was displaying irrational exuberance, with Tsai predicted to beat Ma by 9 points, and shares of Tsai selling for nearly $20 more than shares of Ma in the predicted winner market.

German press agency DPA turned in a surprisingly sympathetic article, despite a couple of errors. AP (in WaPo) reports that Tsai and Ma are now running neck and neck. It will be interesting to watch how the international media scores the last few intense weeks of this election. Don't forget there's a legislative election going on -- most everyone seems to, yet the legislature is in its way more important than the presidency.

The debate between the vice presidential candidates also seemed to go well for DPP Veep candidate Su. The key thing is that Su did not make any glaring errors. The DPP's game this time around seems to be a solid mistake-free ball control game. It makes for a bland election, but one I am very happy with.
Daily Links:
  • China Post with a surprisingly good editorial on Chiu Yi and the ridiculous striptease allegation.
  • Drew with a fantastic post on biking and KMT propaganda.
  • Christian Science Monitor has a nice piece on Ma's proposal for a peace accord, which hurt his campaign badly. In it is mentioned Lai Shin-yuan, the TSU politician that Ma made head of the MAC. Remember when she was first appointed the international media crowed that she was a pro-independence politician?
    But for Taiwan to actually sign an accord, which was first suggested in 2008, it would require more public support at home and more trust in Beijing than exist today, says Lai Shin-yuan, the Taiwanese government's top policymaker in relations with China.

    “The opposition intentionally exaggerated this issue,” she charges. “They don’t have a China policy, so they’re always stirring things up, always making accusations ahead of the election, saying we’re going to sell out Taiwan or unify or whatever.”
    Looks like Lai learned to parrot the KMT line pretty fast, though as I noted in the post, she probably never was very green.
  • JustRecently on the prediction market and polls here.
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.


Philip L said...

I would caution your readers not to be too optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on your hopes) about the results as 'predicted' by the prediction market (PM) because (and please correct me if I'm wrong):

1. The PM doesn't predict Tsai will beat Ma by 9 points - rather that those who think Tsai will win outscore those who think Ma will win by 9 points. But more importantly:

2. As actual money cannot be placed on the 'bets' (as that would be contrary to the law forbidding betting on elections) the PM 'prediction' is essentially meaningless.

Michael Turton said...

Philip L, there are TWO polls in the prediction market. One predicts WHO will win (Tsai sells for $20 more than Ma), the other predicts the winning margin (Tsai up by nine).

The PM prediction is often very accurate, despite its flaws. Much better than the polls!


Michael Turton said...

Philip, here is the prediction of who will win: (LINK); while this LINK will take you to the predicted margin of victory. You should be able to clearly see even though they ghost it. At present in the latter Tsai is up about 8.5 points.