tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post6943502410662929647..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Piggies RuleMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-70575404560259137602011-12-12T15:36:42.237+08:002011-12-12T15:36:42.237+08:00Philip, here is the prediction of who will win: (L...Philip, here is the prediction of who will win: (<a href="http://xfuture.org/contract_groups/21f89334-1bf0-4fe6-a918-729248268087" rel="nofollow">LINK</a>); while this <a href="http://xfuture.org/contract_groups/d2d40b7c-b982-4a7a-84ee-abc3578ea09f" rel="nofollow">LINK</a> will take you to the predicted margin of victory. You should be able to clearly see even though they ghost it. At present in the latter Tsai is up about 8.5 points. <br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-15209108143576031572011-12-12T14:37:34.119+08:002011-12-12T14:37:34.119+08:00Philip L, there are TWO polls in the prediction ma...Philip L, there are TWO polls in the prediction market. One predicts WHO will win (Tsai sells for $20 more than Ma), the other predicts the winning margin (Tsai up by nine).<br /><br />The PM prediction is often very accurate, despite its flaws. Much better than the polls!<br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-6098836138159237562011-12-12T12:41:03.800+08:002011-12-12T12:41:03.800+08:00I would caution your readers not to be too optimis...I would caution your readers not to be too optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on your hopes) about the results as 'predicted' by the prediction market (PM) because (and please correct me if I'm wrong):<br /><br />1. The PM doesn't predict Tsai will beat Ma by 9 points - rather that those who think Tsai will win outscore those who think Ma will win by 9 points. But more importantly:<br /><br />2. As actual money cannot be placed on the 'bets' (as that would be contrary to the law forbidding betting on elections) the PM 'prediction' is essentially meaningless.Philip Lnoreply@blogger.com