Monday, December 26, 2011

Daily Links, Monday, Dec 26, 2011

Send this cold weather back to Siberia! But while we're waiting for it to leave, here's a few things to keep you warm....


  • East Asia Forum: US, China await Taiwan Election with Apprehension. Washington and Beijing face the nightmare of a pro-democracy, pro-Taiwan party getting elected to the Presidency. 
  • Frank Ching looks at how the Chinese take pride in the Taiwan elections. No, Frank, the idea that Taiwan democracy could influence China did not start with Chiang Ching-kuo, who ran a centralized security state and fought the emergence of democracy his whole adult life. 
  • The US just gave Indonesia F-16s, and now Philippines wants them
  • I have to admit that for years before I started this blog I dismissed right-wing claims that there is a whole tribe of commentators on the left that is basically shilling for Beijing. Yet since I've started this blog again and again I run into these people, still wearing their Cold War lenses. Like this piece, from the normally nuanced Peter Lee, who claims -- no seriously -- that the US is being all provocative in Asia, and talks about the South China Sea without ever mentioning that the problem is that China claims the whole damn thing. Again and again I see constructions like this from analysts with clear Leftish sympathies. Recently I had an email exchange with some leftist nutcase who dismissed me with a single word when I pointed out China's behavior in Tibet: "fantasies". No wonder these people have no time for Taiwan.... 
  • This great run-down of Taiwan's WHO lobbying shows how the "success" of Ma's WHA observer decision significantly downgraded Taiwan's status.
  • Delegation of Taiwanese banks to visit Thailand to help hard-hit Taiwan businesses there.
  • Amis protest gov't land practices in Hualien, biggest protest in 20 years.
  • The Patriot missiles found on ship in Finland and bound for Shanghai were actually a German sale to South Korea.
  • Labor costs continuing to impact Taiwanese firms in China
  • Land subsidence stops trains in Kaohsiung
  • Avg temps in Taiwan hit 15 year low
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.


Tommy said...

The prediction market has had Tsai falling back for well over a week. She is now only about 6 ahead there, despite the fact that nothing much has changed on the ground. I wonder whether those who place bets there are realizing that they have been victims of irrational exuberance. From this perspective, the top story of TT makes sense. Taiwan Thinktank has her behind by less than one point, which is within the margin of error and is consistent with repeated Liberty Times polls and a recent Taiwan Thinktank poll over the past several weeks. This result is believable in that it suggests she might win if enthusiasm of the greens causes them to turn out in greater numbers. On the other hand, the prediction market has her up by over seven in the article, which indicates that a further fall of one point has happened since the TT gathered its information for the story. Regardless, this suggests she should have little difficulty at winning, which I think is a bit exaggerated.

More evidence that Apple Daily is an outlier is the China Times poll released on December 22 which shows Tsai behind by 5.2.

Anonymous said...

Don't you think turning Peter Lee's view on the South China Sea as a referendum on his personal intelligence itself is a bit reckless and irresponsible? When you frame the debate like this you undermine your own credibility as a writer (and come off as arrogant). The implicit assumption being 'see things my way = intelligent, see things another way = not intelligent'?

Surely there's a way to criticize people's views without hit jobs on the people themselves.

Michael Turton said...

Surely there's a way to criticize people's views without hit jobs on the people themselves.

You're right, I'll find another word.

Michael Turton said...

Tommy, I agree. It's just wrong. One thing it shows and the green polls also, is that the negative campaigning by the DPP only hurt the DPP. If the election loss is by a point or two, it might have cost them the election.

I haven't counted the KMT out for just that reason; the DPP's own incompetence had yet to manifest itself. Plus vote buying for the legislative elections is going to be massive, and Ma will benefit from that. Finally, I suspect that the vote itself can be.... controlled.