Friday, May 21, 2010

Poller Eyes Taiwan

This week a pile of polls came out. Let's take a look:

In the City Formerly Known As Taipei County (Sinbei or Xinbei or New North City), UDN says the KMT's Chu currently thumps DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen 47-29% in support for the mayoral post, but interestingly, when asked who would win, people say it will be 41-27% in favor of Chu.

The Rolling Stones may be frustrated, but Ma can get satisfaction: the pro-KMT China Times has Ma 43% satisfied, 40 unsatisfied. The negative for Ma in that poll? 60% say employment opportunities have decreased. However, given the rising economy, that number should fall.

Apple Daily also found 42% satisfied, 38% unsatisfied. But would you vote for Ma if the election were held tomorrow? had 45% yes vs 43% no.

Global Views has 30.4% satisfied, 58% unsatisfied with the President of the ROC. GV's numbers show a reasonable upward trend and likely better reflect reality. UPDATE: Pro-KMT TVBS has Ma at 33% satisfied, 47% wanting their money back, very similar to the Global Views poll. At this point it looks like Ma's negatives have troughed and he and his party will likely rise as the export boom makes itself felt.

Meanwhile, the pro-DPP Liberty Times announces that its poll shows that either Su Tseng-chang or DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen would beat Ma in 2012. Su, maybe, but Tsai?
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1 comment:

Ben Goren said...

What's the odds that the polls all start peaking Ma over 50% as the 2012 election nears thereby creating the right stimulus for the 'result is inevitable / I want to vote with the perceived majority' psychological phenomena that arguably won over a critical 15-20% for Ma's overly ambitious but slick promises in the 2008 election?