Friday, September 10, 2010

Su passes Hau in TVBS poll

The latest TVBS poll has the numbers for Taipei city, where the DPP's Su is now ahead of the beleaguered KMT mayor Hau Lung-bin 45-42 with two months to go to the election on Nov 27.

In August Hau was up 45-42 over Su.

Note that in the current poll Su wins 47-24 among independents. Hau is slightly more popular with women (say what?). TVBS even breaks it out ethnically -- among Hoklos, Su is up 53-35, among Hakkas, Hau leads 48-41, and among mainlanders, Hau leads 69-21.

Another key stat: among voters in the 2006 mayor election, Su wins 96% of the DPP votes AND 26% of the KMT vote. Recall that Hau's vote total in 2006 was only 4,000 more than the highest DPP vote total, in 1998 for Chen Shui-bian (against Ma). 63% of the KMT voters will vote again for Hau, while 10% of that KMT electorate remains undecided.

Asked who would make the better mayor, voters pick Su 47-30 with 23% undecided.
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