Here are the numbers for the Kaohsiung mayoral election:I totally agree. I can't believe the pro-Green Liberty Times has Chen Chu neck-n-neck with Huang, when every other poll has a sizable advantage to the KMT. It makes no sense -- the pro-Blue papers are strongly biased, but with the exception of TVBS, they are not clinically insane. Will Chen Chu close this gap? You bet. But she isn't going to make up 10 points on Huang. I think he'll win comfortably by 5 points.
Liberty Times (12/5): Huang Jun-yin (34.38%) versus Chen Chu (34.09%)
China Times (12/4): Huang Jun-yin (43%) versus Chen Chu (29%)
TVBS (12/3-12/4): Huang Jun-yin (51%) versus Chen Chu (31%)
United Daily News (12/2): Huang Jun-yin (39%) versus Chen Chu (27%)
Era TV (11/26-11/27): Huang Jun-yin (41%) versus Chen Chu (26%)
ETTV (11/24): Huang Jun-yin (41%) versus Chen Chu (29%)
According to Liberty Times, KMT candidate Huang Jun-yin has taken an ad out to question why the Liberty Times figures are different from the others. The South Society responded that the reason was obvious: the "Chinese media" are biased and therefore things happen in their public opinion polls. As examples, the South Society said Chen Shui-bian was not picked by the "Chinese media" in the last two presidential elections, but he won both times; four years ago in the Taipei mayoral election, DPP candidate Lee Ying-yuan polled below 20% but he ended up with 36% of the votes. This proves that the polls by the "Chinese media" are way off and untrue.
Does that contradict what I wrote in the beginning? Not at all, because there have been many elections as well as many public opinion polls. The ones cited by South Society favor their case. They do not tell you about examples that contradict their case.
(BCS via Yahoo! News) In the Taipei county election last year, the polls from all except one media outlet favored KMT candidate Chou Hsi-Wei over DPP candidate Lo Wen-chia by at least 10 percentage points. That exception showed the two candidates in a dead heat. In the end, Chou won by 190,000 votes (=10.5%). Yes, it was Liberty Times which was the exception.
What is happening this time? Nobody knows until afterwards. But previous performances are not a good predictor -- if you are willing to consider the totality of the evidence instead of a selective slice.
Consider: Su did a great job in Taipei County and lost. Hsieh cleaned up Kaohsiung but the DPP is going to lose it. Whatever you may say about the Presidency, Chen was a strong mayor of Taipei -- and lost. Yi-lan was ably run by two excellent DPP administrations -- and lost. See a pattern here?
Unless I see an amazingly well constructed DPP internal poll that says different, tomorrow the DPP will lose both cities. Hau by 10 in Taipei, Huang by 5 in Kaohsiung. I can't wait to read the nonsense in the foreign media over the next few weeks. *sigh*