Sunday, June 12, 2011

Taiwan DEPH scandal harms Taiwan's Rep

The DEHP scandal has damaged Taiwan's international reputation. Hong Kong stopped sales of certain Taiwan products:
The Centre for Food Safety (CFS) of the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department (FEHD) announced today (June 10) that two samples of Taiwan-style drinks taken at two local drinks shops were found to contain a plasticiser di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP).

The Centre instructed the two shops to immediately stop sale of those drinks. It is tracing the suppliers of the ingredients of the drinks and will collect samples for testing.

The Centre will also instruct the suppliers to suspend the supply of the affected products.

A spokesman for the CFS said, "One sample of 'green apple green tea' taken at a Taiwan-style drinks shop, 'Fan Chum Mei' (translation), by the CFS earlier was found to contain DEHP at a level of 6.8 ppm.

"The other 'icy mango drink' sample collected at 'Ice King' was detected with DEHP at a level of 24 ppm."

The "icy mango drink" sample was taken when the CFS was following up on a notification from the Taiwanese authority earlier that consignments of some fruit juice suspected to be plasticiser-tainted had been distributed to Hong Kong. It was collected from the shop concerned upon enquiries with the local importer about product distribution records.
First, note that it was "Taiwan authorities" notifying Hong Kong that there was a problem. Good PR move.... but probably too late.

In addition to Hong Kong, Malaysia and Philippines have attacked Taiwan food products. In Borneo (Malaysia) one of the local governments has asked the public to stop buying Taiwan food products "for the time being."

DEHP is used in these products as a replacement for more expensive palm oil. Palm oil is a key crop of Borneo, while Philippines is attempting to develop a palm oil industry.

A friend of mine pointed out that if the DEHP is the result of collusion between firms in the PRC and Taiwan, surely many PRC drink products must also be contaminated. Wonder when we will hear that news..... ironically, the PRC has also banned a long list of Taiwan food products.

ADDED: OzSoapbox notes:

I've been following this nonsense for a while now.


http://ozsoapbox.com/taiwan/food/the-great-2011-dehp-plasticizer-food-scare-of-taiwan/


In just the last few days;


One drug company has been found to be supplying Taiwan with a plastic tainted drug whilst providing Singapore with a plasticizer free recipe.


The head of Uni-President pleaded with the public to not blame the innocent companies manufacturing poisoned drinks, but rather the suppliers.


Taiwan's government declaring a product safe one day and recalling it the next.


And I'm sure there's many more stories still to come...

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Saturday, June 11, 2011

Gourd Shop

Today my friend Domenic and I rode to the checkpoint above Guguan on Highway 8, where the guards turned us back as the road is still under construction. But on the way there, on 8 roughly 400 meters past the last 7-11 outside of Dongshih, we passed this cool shop that sells painted and carved gourds.

The shop not only sells gourds, it also fixes motorcycles.

Gourds ready for further processing. Or sale, as the case may be.

The owner told me the green one was $500 NT.

There are lamps in the back there.

The owner grows his own gourds, in fantastic shapes and sizes.

Gourds on display.
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Friday, June 10, 2011

China Military On The Move

The language of policy-making discourse:
Outgoing CIA director Leon Panetta, US President Barack Obama’s pick for US secretary of defense, said China was preparing for “potential contingencies” involving Taiwan, which could include potential military clashes.
China is not preparing for "potential contingencies." China is preparing to attack Taiwan, to maim and murder its people, and to annex its territory. The policymaker's distancing euphemisms soften the real world and make the killing that much easier.

Defense News reports that China says it will conduct military exercises in the western Pacific.
Chinese state media reported June 9 that China would conduct naval training drills in the western Pacific later this month, amid lingering fears among Beijing's neighbors about its military ambitions.

The exercises will take place in international waters and are "not targeted at any specific country," the defense ministry said in a statement carried by Xinhua news agency.
A longtime academic observer of Taiwan affairs, reading the news that China's new carrier, said to be named the Shi Lang after the general who took Taiwan for the Manchus, remarked that the US should respond to the upcoming launch of the vessel with the sale of F-16s to Taiwan. Aviation Weekly reports that China is now the major consideration in Indian Air Force deployments.

Turning south, the South China Sea was once again the site of further Chinese tension-mongering.
China warned Asian neighbors Thursday to stop searching for oil near the disputed Spratly Islands and vowed to assert its sovereignty over the potentially petroleum-rich territory in the South China Sea despite rival claims.

China and the Philippines have swapped diplomatic protests over the islands, with Filipino officials accusing Chinese forces of intruding into Manila-claimed areas six times since February and of firing shots in at least one incident. Beijing denied the allegation Thursday and said it would use violence only when attacked.

Vietnam, meanwhile, has accused China of flaring tensions in the sea by hindering the operation of a oil and gas exploration boat for the second time in two weeks.

The Spratlys, which are believed to be atop vast oil and gas reserves, have long been feared as a potential flash point of armed conflict in Asia.
Sitting in Taiwan and watching Beijing stoking tensions throughout Asia, it is incredible to me the way in which the media treats Beijing as a passive agent when it comes to Taiwan. It's the same expansionist drive that is putting troops in the Himal across from India, giving dissidents prison sentences in Tibet, seizing fishing boats in the South China Sea, and pointing missiles at Taiwan.
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Congressional Hearing on Why Taiwan Matters

The good news was flickering around the intertubes yesterday....

Here is the hearing announcement. Two panels, names known to anyone who follows US government policy on Taiwan. Good to see June Teufel Dreyer, Rupert Hammond-Chambers and Randall Schriver there.

As I understand it, Formosa Foundation and other pro-Taiwan organizations have been active in trying to get this hearing done. Terri Giles, the Executive Director of the Foundation, writes:
Dear Friends,

We are thrilled to share the news that Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, has formally announced that she will hold a full committee hearing on June 16 to call attention to Taiwan’s important to the United States.

For several years, The Formosa Foundation has been in discussions with Ros-Lehtinen about a hearing in Congress on the issue of Taiwan. Earlier this year, I sat down with the Congresswoman who confirmed that she would call a hearing in the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on the subject of "Why Taiwan Matters." Today, she has made it official. I anticipated that the Chairman will speak in detail about the June 16th hearing this Saturday at an event that we are co-hosting in Los Angeles.

We are grateful to Chairman Ros-Lehtinen, one of the greatest supporters of the Taiwanese people in Washington and a champion for democracy and liberty, for bringing this critical issue before Congress and the American people. I hope you can join us in Washington for this special event.

Terri

A friend notes: "If you're not able to attend in person, the event will be available LIVE via WEBCAST link on the Committee website at http://www.hcfa.house.gov/."
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Thursday, June 09, 2011

ROC General: PRC Army + ROC Army = Chinese Army

Another retired KMT general, another pro-China comment?
Taiwanese media, citing a Chinese media report quoting PLA Major General Luo Yuan (羅援), said a Taiwanese speaker recently told a gathering of retired generals from both sides of the Strait in China: “From now on, we should no longer separate the ROC Army and the PLA. We are all China’s army.”

The report identified the speaker as former ROC Air Force General Hsia Ying-chou (夏瀛洲).

The Ministry of National Defense (MND) yesterday issued a statement saying it had checked with Hsia, who said the media report was “not factual.”

The statement said the ministry had never authorized any group or individual to discuss, exchange views or speak with China on its behalf, adding that any comments made by individuals were said in a “private” capacity.
Read it carefully: does the MND specifically say that the comments were not made? Nope, the way I read it, the MND is not denying that the comments were made, just denying that the general was speaking with official authority. Looks like the general did indeed engage in a bit of Chinese nationalist harrumphing. ADDED: President Ma condemned the alleged remarks.

Letters from Taiwan rounded up some previous instances of military officer visits to Zion the Motherland China. Some of them are especially chilling:
2011 - Nineteen retired Taiwanese intelligence officials last month visited late General Tai Li’s (戴笠) hometown in Jiangshan City (江山市), Zhejiang Province, China, reports said yesterday. The Chinese-language China Times reported that former National Security Bureau chief accountant Lieutenant General Hsu Ping-chiang (徐炳強) and former Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB) official Major General Huang Chi-mei (黃其梅) led 17 retired MIB officials on a visit to Tai’s hometown — the first time former Taiwanese intelligence officials paid a formal visit to China. Tai is known as the father of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) infamous intelligence apparatus during the Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) presidency.
Not only is this habit of retired military officers breaking bread with their Chinese counterparts a problem for Taiwan's military and its democracy, but it has also attracted the worry of the US. These exchanges are one reason the US is reluctant to sell Taiwan its best military gear.

How bad is the problem? The public exchanges of groups of officers that make it into the press don't really get to the heart of the matter. As Lawrence Eyton reported in an excellent and sensitive article on the largely mainlander army and bureaucracy in 2002:
It also follows the release of an alarming statistic by the Ministry of National Defense according to which more than 3,000 former Taiwan military officers are now either doing business or working in "consultancies" in mainland China.
Many more have quiet links to China in other ways, through family doing business there. Indeed in a couple of cases ROC military officers claim they were blackmailed into handing over classified info by some PRC threat to family members doing business in China.
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AmCham: Taiwan too dependent on China

Those of us who have been following the American Chamber of Commerce's longtime advocacy of closer links between Taiwan and China and adoption of KMT talking points as "analysis" had a good laugh this week as AmCham released its latest White Paper (here) as its director kvetched that Taiwan was too dependent on China and that issues of importance to the foreign business community aren't getting resolved.

Who could have imagined that?

Laudably, AmCham called on Washington to move closer to Taipei and to either resolve or ignore the idiotic beef issue.

The Taipei Times reported:
“Taiwan should pursue greater balance by consolidating its economic connections with such other major markets as Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia and especially the United States, the world’s biggest economy,” AmCham chairman Bill Wiseman told a media briefing on the release of the organization’s annual white paper.

Wiseman’s warning came a few hours before the release of Taiwan’s latest trade data, which showed China accounting for 40.2 percent of exports last month, while the US took only 12.3 percent.

“Over-reliance on one market is always risky,” Wiseman said. “Taiwan should not turn away growth when it can get it, but it needs to lock in the future. It needs to go and start broadening its economic relationships beyond focusing so much on China.”

Taiwan is almost doubly dependent on China, which drove 47 percent of the country’s economic growth last year, sharply higher than the 25 percent average with the G20 nations, he said.
Over-reliance on one market is risky? No kidding? Wasn't that the warning sounded repeatedly by the pro-Taiwan side in the run-up to the 2008 election? Didn't we all know what would happen? Ironically Wiseman's remarks took place even as dependence on China actually fell quarter on quarter, 42.8 percent in the first quarter last year to 40.9 percent of Taiwan's trade over the same period in 2011 (here).

According to the AmCham press release, the White Paper recommended that Taiwan focus on developing its European, Japanese and US markets. But at the same time, it remains strongly supportive of ECFA and urged the government to continue selling out the island opening to China. Laugh at Amcham if you will (and I certainly am!), but it is important to note that in its restrained way AmCham is criticizing its darling Ma Administration for being too focused on China.

Who could have imagined that the Ma Administration would be too focused on China?

The other point they made, also a criticism, relates to the government's resolution of issues important to AmCham.
The organization found that of the 114 issues and sub-issues raised last year, only 14, or 12.3 percent, were resolved or showed satisfactory progress — the lowest in its history of tracking issues seven years ago.
Many of these issues have been around for years.

Time Travel: just for fun I searched my blog for some previous AmCham comments. I've been following AmCham's institutionally pro-KMT stance for quite some time. Remember when AmCham complained that the TSU was gettin' all in their face with ideology? That was in 2006...
The editorial in AmCham's latest issue of TOPICS magazine criticizing the TSU's opposition to closer economic ties with the mainland yesterday infuriated TSU politicians, who warned the chamber against interfering in Taiwan's internal politics.

The editorial even provoked comments from former President Lee Teng-hui according to local news reports.

Vuylsteke said the chamber's stance on closer ties with China was similar to views held by the majority of the public. He warned that too much economic isolation would make Taiwan a nation similar to North Korea or Burma.
Yes, with a million Taiwanese in China at that point, the head of AmCham was worried that Taiwan would become like North Korea or Burma.

From the 2008 White Paper, which was quite reasonable in many ways, came this scolding:
AmCham reiterated its long-held position in favor of eased economic interflows across the Taiwan Strait, with particular reference to expanded non-stop charter flights. If air travel between Taiwan and mainland cities becomes time-saving and convenient, more multinational – and Taiwanese – companies will choose to locate more key personnel and business units in Taiwan for reasons of quality of life, IPR protection, and other rule of law issues, it said. The Chamber called on Beijing to appreciate the special opportunity created by the current political environment in Taiwan, and therefore to respond positively to the Ma administration’s initiatives. In addition, it asked the Taiwan government to take action on measures that it could implement unilaterally, such as removing caps on direct Taiwanese investment in China and on mutual fund investments with China holdings, and eliminating “frivolous” items such as potato chips from the list of products banned from being imported from China.
In 2009 I asked when AmCham was finally going to learn. AmCham was complaining that the government's  plan to lower the cap on credit card rates. The Taipei Times ripped them because of course all of us who are familiar with the KMT's long-term behavior knew precisely what was going to happen. But in that post I quoted my 2007 post...
One of the major problems with Taiwan's economy, from outsider's perspective, is that it is often a game outsiders are not allowed to play. The Chambers of Commerce appear to be of the opinion that this will change if Ma is elected. Lotsa luck, guys. Because after Ma "opens" the economy, AmCham editorials are going to read like this:

"While in principle we welcome the new openness shown by Taiwan during the first two years of President Ma's administration, AmCham wishes to express its growing concern over the preferential treatment given firms from China....."
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Daily Links:
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Freedom House China Media Bulletin Needs Your Help

Freedom House sent this:

+++++++++++++++
As you may know, in November 2010, Freedom House launched the China Media Bulletin, a weekly digest of news and analysis on media freedom issues related to the People's Republic of China.

In the short time since it began publishing, this unique information source has become a must-read item for policymakers, academics, and opinion leaders interested in China's internal dynamics and its rise as a world power. Individuals in Taiwan have been particularly enthusiastic about the bulletin, totaling over 400 of our 1,200 subscribers.

Unfortunately, the CMB is due to run out of publishing funds next month. As such, we are currently trying to raise its profile and alert a wider audience to the need for support to sustain it. If you have found the Bulletin helpful as a source of information and analysis, we would be grateful if you would be willing to share this with a wider circle in order to spread the word.

Thank you very much for your interest in Freedom House's work. More information can be found on its special page http://www.freedomhouse.org/cmb
The donations page is here:
https://org2.democracyinaction.org/o/6580/donate_page/cmb
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011

ROC claims map

Map of ROC territorial claims (h/t to Cyril on FB).
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Daily Links
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New Ambassador from Manila to Beijing is KMT member??

People in the Sinic world are connected across institutional, ethnic and national boundaries in ways that are often opaque to outsiders. Occasionally these connections are brought to light... and another chapter in the fascinating history of Chinese outside China is born. A Filipino blogger and journalist, Ellen Tordesilas, reports:
It’s not too late for President Aquino to recall the appointment of Domingo Y. Lee as ambassador to the People’s Republic of China.

Lee’s Taiwan connection is so well-entrenched, it will complicate further the Philippine’s delicate relations with one of the world’s superpowers.

A reliable source in the Chinese community said he knows that Lee, in his 70’s “is a card-carrying member of the Koumintang.” He said he is not sure if he has resigned but what he understood of the party affiliation is that it’s a “lifetime commitment.”
Descendants of Chinese immigrants to the Philippines have had a powerful influence on the history of that island nation. Prominent Filipinos with Chinese ancestry include the Aquino family, Cardinal Sin, Jose Rizal, and Emilio Aguinaldo. Tordesilas observes:
Lee was head of the Manila Economic and Cultural Office in Taipei, the de facto embassy of the Philippines in Taiwan during the administration of Cory Aquino.

In the book “Cory, an intimate portrait”, a compilation of memories of the late president by people close to her, Lee has a five- paragraph piece which stated his closeness with the Aquino family.

Lee wrote: “Ninoy and I were childhood friends in our hometown of Concepcion, Tarlac. His father was my godfather. We grew up and bonded a lot. Ours was a special friendship – a treasure of a lifetime. Indeed, he was more than a friend to me- we grew up like brothers. Naturally, his chosen partner for life was a matter of a special interest to me.”

Lee was a member of the business delegation that accompanied Aquino in his first trip to the United States September last year. His business description was “senior adviser, Philippine Savings Bank.”
Tordesilas is understandably upset about what appears to be cronyism driving the appointment of Lee as Ambassador to China. Another journalist notes the all-important context of this appointment: the territorial claims of China on Philippines territory:
That leaves “trust” as the only factor that can be attributed to Lee’s appointment. But “trust” alone couldn’t do the complex job of Ambassador to China, especially at a time when the Philippines’ relationship with China is teetering amidst the hotly disputed Spratly archipelago. What is needed is a seasoned career diplomat who knows the “tricks of the trade” in dealing with China’s aggressive diplomatic assault as well as her menacing military presence in the Spratly archipelago including her frivolous but serious claim that the entire South China Sea is part of her continental shelf; thus, an integral part of her territory.
The South China Sea claims of China are now a key factor for the nations bordering the area in their relations with China.
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Monday, June 06, 2011

Daily Links, June 6, 2011

My friend Ellen at an overlook on Sanfeng Rd south of Hsinchu. A pretty road that runs along the ridges between Hsinchu and Miaoli, Sanfeng Rd is highly recommended. Saturday I rode 111 kms up to Hsinchu to perform at the first Open Mic night at Titty Tea in Jhubei (Facebook). The event was a great success with enjoyable performances by locals and foreigners; if you're in the area on a Saturday night, stop by to enjoy. The next day I rode with Ellen on Rte 3 through Miaoli back to Taichung. Despite the tough ride of 120 kms and probably 1100 m of climbing into blustery headwinds the whole way, Ellen took the hills of Miaoli by storm. Great ride, great ride partner (map).

Whew! It's hot out there! What's burning up the blogs this week?

BLOGS:

Me on Open Mic night at Titty Tea (blog) in Jhubei. They will be doing this every Sat night this month.

MEDIA:
One reason I like riding on the railroad access road is that it goes by the wind farms along the coast.

HELP:
NCKU student is running a study on bike stops. You can do the survey here:
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The Gangster May Cheat You!

We've seen this one before, but I can't resist. It's in the ATMs in the atrium of the upscale mini-mall next to the new bus station just north of the Taipei Train station. I suppose it is pointless to ask why First Bank can't afford an English editor.
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Sunday, June 05, 2011

Kudos to John Copper

John Copper, the longtime pro-KMT academic, deserves a round of applause for coming out strongly for continued US support for Taiwan in the Taipei Times this week. There were a couple of interesting points along with some of the usual arguments:
Another reason China probably does not want Taiwan immediately is that unification would likely be seen as a victory for the military; civilian leaders want to keep the military under control. (Many think it has become a loose cannon of late.) Chinese leaders feel that Taiwan will eventually want unification because of China’s economic attraction and that would be a better way of solving the problem.
It's good to see some pushback against the short-sighted notion that the US should abandon Taiwan to please Beijing, as if Beijing would stay pleased for more than thirty seconds. As a longtime KMT supporter, Copper's position also shows the complexities and contradictions of academic positioning on key Taiwan issues -- arguing on the one hand that the US should support Taiwan and help keep it out of Chinese hands while on the other supporting the Party that officially wants to annex Taiwan to China.
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Saturday, June 04, 2011

Gates Hands China Major Victory, Ignores TRA

The Taipei Times headlined the comments of Sec of Defense Robert Gates as saying that "Chinese sensitivities" will be taken into account when the US considers the F-16 sale. The comments look innocuous but his idea that the US must "thread the needle" -- take Chinese sensitivities into account when determining Taiwan's defense needs -- indicates that the Taipei Times has the story correct:
Gates is expected to discuss the potential sale in talks with Chinese Minister of National Defense Liang Guanglie (梁光烈) at the Shangri-La security dialogue in Singapore this weekend.

During a meeting with US reporters on the way to Singapore, Gates was asked if — in view of pressure building in Congress to let Taipei have the planes — the benefits to Taiwan’s security would outweigh the costs that would be incurred to the relationship with China.

He replied: “We do have obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act [TRA] and we have this discussion in virtually every meeting that we have with the Chinese.”

“I would say that I think under both the [former US president George W.] Bush and Obama administrations, we have tried to thread the needle pretty carefully in terms of Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, but at the same time being aware of China’s sensitivities,” Gates said. “I think both administrations have done this very thoughtfully and very carefully. By the same token, just as the Chinese are very open with us about their concerns, we are also open with them about our obligations.”
The Taipei Times article goes on to Richard Fisher, a strongly conservative US and China military and defense analyst, who points out that (1) Gates has essentially handed China influence over American diplomatic and military strategy; and (2) our allies in Asia have to be wondering what other aspect of US policy China is acquiring ownership of. If the US is really 'threading the needle' between Taiwan's needs and China's calculated policy of expressing anger, then China has just won a major victory over the US.

In addition to Fisher's points, it should also be noted that nowhere in the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) does it say that outsiders should be consulted in weapons sales; in fact the language of the TRA specifically excludes that (from taiwandocuments.org):
Sec 3302(b) Determination of Taiwan's defense needs
The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan, in accordance with procedures established by law. Such determination of Taiwan's defense needs shall include review by United States military authorities in connection with recommendations to the President and the Congress
.
Note that word there "solely". It rules out input by outsiders (including Taiwan) into the weapons sales process.

Let's hope that there is a "clarification" with significant backpedaling by Gates. It's absolutely disgusting that a major US official is paying attention to the totally calculated and wholly fake "sensitivities" of Beijing on the Taiwan issue.
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Friday, June 03, 2011

Pay Attention to Tension

Traffic near the train station in Taipei.

Interesting facts: as the KMT papers are crowing, Yu Shen, the firm at the center of the DEHP scandal, is named after the son of the owner of the firm, whose name in Mandarin is Yu Shen. The son himself works as a reporter at the Taipei Times under his name in Taiwanese.

That has nothing to do with this post. But I thought, in case you didn't know, that you'd like to.

Anyway...

You know how the Establishment media has worked hard to put forth the idea that Ma Ying-jeou has "reduced tensions" after the nightmarish Presidency of Chen Shui-bian, in which tensions climbed as Taiwanese investment in China soared, the air route between Hong Kong and Taipei was the busiest in the world, and Taiwanese businessmen moved to China by the thousand. With those nightmare years in mind I was surfing the Net the other day and found this piece from Reuters:
Tensions between China and Taiwan have diminished even as Beijing moves rapidly to modernize its military with ballistic missiles capable of striking U.S. naval forces, U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte said on Thursday.

............

"(Chinese) leaders continue to emphasize development of friendly relations with the states on China's periphery to assure peaceful borders," Negroponte said in his annual assessment of world threats facing the United States and its allies.
When was that reported? In Jan of 2007. That was an ANNUAL REVIEW of 2006. Now that Eastasia is at war with Oceania, 2006 must surely have been hellish year of rising tension, one of the eight years of tension during the Chen Administration, in which tension rose more often than the Sun.

Another item gone AWOL: an important driver of tension in the 2005 period was China's "Anti-Secession Law" which caused a huge jump in Cross-Strait tensions. It has basically vanished from pithy descriptions of those days in the current media reports. As Mark Harrison noted in Aug of 2005, this jolt in tension was due to Beijing...
The months since the re-election of Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian have seen a rise in tensions across the Taiwan Straits. The softer line which the Chinese government had adopted during Chen’s previous term has been seen to fail with the election result, and there has been a noticible shift in policy and much stronger rhetoric coming out of China.
If you read a bunch of stories on "tension" you'll soon see how much of the perception of "tension" is due to the media's constant insertion of that word into issues or disagreements where it does not belong.

There are (endless) examples of reporters referring to tensions that never occurred, like this piece from June of 2006. The headline refers to "Taiwan Tension" by which it appears to refer the domestic turmoil, but then this paragraph pops up:
Taiwan's stock market dropped more than 3% on Tuesday, before Chen delivered his speech, as investors feared that the president might made some strongly worded statements to provoke mainland China and heighten tensions across the strait.

However, Chen focused on counterattacking the opposition parties' charges against him. Analysts said this suggested that in his remaining two years in office, Chen could no longer rely on manipulating cross-strait ties, as he has done before, to divert public attention from domestic problems. Thus cross-strait relations should remain relatively stable. 
Love the pro-KMT construction in the second paragraph, but note that the "tension" never actually occurred. If the media constant inserts the word "tension" into articles, eventually people start associating it with the China-Taiwan relationship. Remember the savage atmosphere of 2003? CNN reported:

Taiwan Strait tensions on the up

What was really going on? That was when Chen Shui-bian was holding a referendum on the nuke plant, and  Beijing claimed it was a dry run for a referendum on independence. Yes, the purely internal matter of building a power plant was enough for Beijing to pout (it also shows how Beijing gets instant media buy-in whenever it says the pro-Taiwan side is being provocative). But then the piece goes on to report, repeatedly, that China is remaining "restrained"...
Diplomatic analysts in Beijing said the new leadership under President Hu Jintao had responded to these developments in a relative restrained manner.

Apart from fairly routine protests made by the Foreign Ministry and the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), the analysts said senior cadres had refrained from making intimidating statements about the consequences of Chen's pro-independence game-plan.

"Chen is upping the ante in his pro-independence moves to boost his popularity among native-Taiwanese voters in Taiwan," said a Chinese source close to Beijing's Taiwan policy-making establishment.

"The leadership knows it will be playing into Chen's hands if it were to rattle the saber."
So again the headline uses the Awful T-word but then goes on to describe the opposite in reality.

Consider this headline from Reuters:

Tension rises as China-Taiwan flight pact hits bumps

Oh noes! What happened? Is the bombing to start immediately? Do I have time to get my bicycle to a safe place? The paper describes the descent into the maelstrom:
China and Taiwan face a widening dispute over scheduling of direct flights, an important factor behind $100 billion in two-way trade, raising tension between old foes just weeks after they signed a massive trade pact.
But what really happened? Inside the report is this:
The flap could cool a climate of goodwill associated with most China-Taiwan deals including a free trade-style pact signed in June, the biggest tie-up ever between economic powerhouse China and tech-reliant Taiwan.
It....COULD cool the goodwill. It....COULD cause my nostrils to emit large furry fictional horned equines as well. Reuters is reporting "news" before it happens, and using the word "tension" where it is totally unjustified. Indeed, "tension" did not occur. When does this report date from?

July, 2010.

Yeah, remember that awful July of 2010, where we were constantly running off to bomb shelters as tensions rose between Beijing and its ally Ma Ying-jeou? Funny, because the 2010 I remember was filled with praise for Ma Ying-jeou for "lowering tensions" across the Taiwan Strait.

"Tension" in the Strait is in large part a media trope. It gets trundled out whether the story deserves it or not. It is such a reflex that, as the story above shows, the media inserts it zombie-style even into Ma Administration stories.

It should also be noted that Ma inherited a situation of "lowered" tension. Anyone recall the terrible Cross-Strait tension of 2007 and 2008 (2008 US NIE assessment)? Like so many other things, Mr Ma is just taking credit for low hanging fruit that had already been set out for him to pluck.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011

Random Thoughts and Observations

Today in class I asked the students to write about three major problems for Taiwan's future. One student eventually mentioned bullying, which apparently haunts many students years into their future. Paul M Fussell once remarked that Americans spend adulthood getting revenge for what happened to them in high school, but Taiwan seems to be even worse. Do you think the Chinese leaders who bully Taiwan learned that in junior high?

Here's a headline you'll see more of: Gates to Reassure Asian Allies. As all our pomp of yesterday becomes one with Ninevah and Tyre, expect to see more headlines down the years in the generic form (HIGH RANKING PERSON) to reassure (NERVOUS ALLIES) until at last we reach Sec of Defense reassures Mayor of Honolulu....


Meanwhile Adm Willard, the US Navy's chief in the Asia-Pacific region, expresses concern about Chinese territorial expansion in the South China Sea. Not only is Taiwan linked to that increasingly tense issue by its direct claims on the area, but it also has a large military base on an important island in the South China Sea. This shows that you can't advocate quietly handing off Taiwan to China without (1) strengthening China's claims to the South China Sea via eliminating a rival claimant whose claims it now takes over and (2) handing Beijing a major military installation in the area. Beijing's territorial claims are both intertwined and self-reinforcing. What will Manila, Kuala Lumpur and Hanoi say when Chinese jets operate out of Taiwan's former base on Dongsha Island in the Spratlys?

Local politics: As we slouch toward the January election to be rebooted, KMT Vice President Siew will not seek re-election. Siew suffered a slew of health problems during his term. This leaves Ma and the KMT free to pick someone young and energetic and Taiwanese. Tell me who you think he should pick in the comments below.

Collin Spears asks whether ECFA will be the end of Ma if the Taiwanese don't choose right..... in this piece which links to me (and therefore is totally awesome, thanks Collin!) he writes:
The landmark agreement is not helping Ma in Taiwan as much as some Western critics tend to think.  Ma’s Taiwanese critics contend that the economic data he flaunts as proof of the  ECFAs success are not coming from Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), but China, therefore they are bias.  Further, they argue that Ma’s policies do nothing but to further hollow-out the island’s industrial base, which only benefit the wealthy while taking Taiwan from a industrial economy to a service economy which is ever increasingly dependent on the Mainland.  At the same time, Taiwan, due to Beijing’s objections, is unable to make independent trade deals with many of its neighbors (such as the ASEAN states), due to China’s diplomatic objections, which it uses as blackmail for “good behavior”.  In fact, opponents point to Tung Chen-yuan, a professor at Taipei’s National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Development Studies, who claims that the ECFA has not been responsible for an increase in exports to China, because no increases occured:
The Ma Administration dug its own grave -- had they not attempted to gain public support by constantly conjuring up new, urgent, mortal threats that Taiwan could only dealing with by signing ECFA now now now, the public would not now be expecting that ECFA would bring them two chickens in every pot of san bei ji. Imagine an alternate universe where ECFA had been put forward in a low key and rationale manner, instead of being presented as a panacea for the island's economic problems.

Off to town to drink tonight at a couple of expat happy hours. Hope to see you there!
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Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.