Thursday, October 08, 2009

Good Writing and Good News

The Ma Administration is feeling the sting of foreign criticism, responding to an editorial criticizing the Rebiya Kadeer vsa denial in the Asian Wall Street Journal with this letter. It's a wonderful bit of evasive nothing:
First, the decision of not allowing Ms. Kadeer to visit Taiwan has been made in accordance with Article 18 of Chapter 4 of the Immigration Act, "Entry of Aliens and Exit of Aliens." This article stipulates that the National Immigration Agency shall prohibit an alien from entering the ROC if he/she is believed to endanger national interests or public security. This does not mean, however, that the ROC government disrespects freedom of expression. Indeed, the documentary about Ms. Kadeer's life has been shown at many venues in Taiwan.
Note that the government more or less blandly affirms that Kadeer has terrorist links and claims it carried out the action in accordance with some vague law. The letter then indignantly attempts to rebut WSJ's argument that the KMT Administration is aping Beijing's authoritarian ways. Ironic, in light of the latest kow-tow yesterday to Beijing, in which the government changed TAIWAN WELCOMES THE NBA to TAIPEI WELCOMES THE NBA. Excellent work by the WSJ.

Another good piece making the rounds was a surprisingly good op-ed by Philip Bowring in the NYTimes yesterday:

The most striking evidence of a desire to please Beijing — at the expense of the liberal values which have gained Taiwan much praise in recent years — was the denial of entry to the exiled Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer. This was done in the name of “national interest,” apparently linked to the finalization, expected soon, of a memorandum of understanding on cross-strait financial links.

For sure, the memorandum would be a major advance, enabling banks in particular to escape the confines of Taiwan, with its low growth and surplus savings, for the fast-growing mainland. And it would bring more mainland capital to local stocks and property. But the government of President Ma Ying-jeou may have forgotten that Taiwan’s national interest as an independent state, albeit one that may one day merge with the mainland, sometimes requires sacrifices. The degree of autonomy that Rebiya Kadeer has been seeking for Uighurs is a fraction of that enjoyed by Taiwan or even Hong Kong.

Bowring stays within the bounds of conventional establishment readings of Taiwan (financial agreement is good, Chen Shui-bian "provoked" Beijing) but he points out that Taiwan is moving closer to China than need be -- and how often do commentators notice that?? -- and also raises the issue of the worrying anti-democracy developments on the island. Wonderful job!

Still, the piece closes on an entirely conventional note:
None of this is likely to help Taiwan’s relations with its main supporter, the United States. Chen upset a natural ally in George W. Bush by needlessly provoking Beijing in an attempt to score political points at home. Now the KMT seems to have gone to the other extreme....
"...needlessly provoking Beijing..." The error here is profound, and I've discussed it before, but let's say it again: since all pro-Taiwan activity "provokes" Beijing, the idea of "needless provoking" is nonsense. Being provoked is a policy choice for Beijing, not a visceral reaction. Note how different the discussion is when China pulls the same crap with India -- issuing special visas (as with Taiwan) and claiming that everyone in Arunachal Pradesh is "Chinese". Yet only a madman would claim that India "provokes" China. It's true: Taiwan is unique.

Bowring also adds:
Taiwan lacks a strategic view of itself and how to balance relations with the Chinese mainland, the United States and the global economy with liberal democracy and de facto independence.
A nation can probably balance liberal democracy and global economic participation, but the sad fact is, the closer Taiwan moves to China, the farther it moves from democracy. Commentators haven't yet grasped that. They will.

More important is the charge that Chen Shui-bian screwed up US-Taiwan relations. This is often stated by US officials, but recall that the Bush Administration lowered relations with Taiwan and refused to sell it weapons in Bush's second term, leading to Taiwan supporters to charge Bush had instituted a veritable freeze. The Bush Administration found Chen a convenient whipping boy for that catastrophe disguised as a US government was also out to kow-tow to China. Chen was only partly to blame for the problems in US-Taiwan relations.

The Obama Administration demonstrated how far the Bush Administration had gone when the news came out yesterday that for the first time since the Clinton Administration, a US cabinet official was going to visit Taiwan. Gen Shinseki, currently Sec of Veterans Affairs, will be coming. This welcome development is in stark contrast to the Bush Administration's eight years of neglect and attempts to curry favor with China. The attempts to placate China have not yet run their course -- witness the President's refusal to meet the Dalai Lama -- but I suspect even the most ardent Sinophile in that Administration will eventually come around.
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Daily Links:
SPECIAL: Rethink Afghanistan, huge new documentary asking the nation to reconsider that stupid war. $300 billion annually so our leaders can feel like they run a Great Power.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Soong to be rehabilitated by Beijing?

Don't miss this amazing ROC military recruitment video. With technology like this, Taiwan can't lose.

From the South China Morning Post comes this piece announcing that Beijing will join a cross-strait forum hosted by one of Taiwan's opposition parties. (Wait -- the DPP or the TSU?). Here's the headline and article:
One of Taiwan's opposition parties is set to hold a cross-strait forum with the Communist Party in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, early next month, four years after their first convention in Shanghai. Analysts say the event is an apparent sign that the mainland wants toincrease its political options in Taiwan instead of putting all its eggs in the Kuomintang basket.

James Soong Chu-yu, chairman of the People First Party (PFP), will lead a delegation comprising party officials, scholars and experts for the three-day forum to discuss agricultural, water conservation and green energy co-operation.
It's certainly humorous to read that the PFP is an "opposition" party, but more interesting is the name of Soong. Further on the article drops the broad hint that Beijing is displeased that its KMT allies gave the Dalai Lama a visa, and so they are showing favor to James Soong, the PFP head, once a colossus bestriding Taiwan politics, now doing his Ozymandias imitation in the political desert as most of his party legislators have returned to the KMT fold.

Could Soong be rehabilitated as a political force by tighter links with Beijing? It would be classic authoritarian strategy to play off one bigwig against another to prevent the growth of a single powerful figure, or more likely, merely to let the KMT know that such a thing could happen if they are not sufficiently servile.
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Daily LinksJOBS: SOAS in London is looking for a senior teaching fellow in Taiwan Studies. For some reason they rejected my proposed courses of 'Beer and Political Economy in Taiwan,' 'Imagery of the Female: Betel Nut Culture,' and 'Management 401: Let Your Taiwanese Wife Handle Everything'. Ah, well, maybe next year.
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Supreme Court Kills Lin vs US

The US Supreme Court has denied the petition to appeal in Lin vs US( see page 37). The case is the one in which the US is being sued to get it to recognize that it holds sovereignty over Taiwan (most recently discussed on the blog here). The docket says (my emphasis):

No. 09-33
Title:
Roger C. S. Lin, et al., Petitioners
v.
United States
Docketed: July 8, 2009
Lower Ct: United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
Case Nos.: (08-5078)
Decision Date: April 7, 2009

~~~Date~~~ ~~~~~~~Proceedings and Orders~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jul 6 2009 Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 7, 2009)
Aug 3 2009 Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
Aug 5 2009 DISTRIBUTED for Conference of September 29, 2009.
Oct 5 2009 Petition DENIED.

Not much to say here. Hopefully the money wasted on this case will now flow to more constructive pro-Taiwan activities.
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Monday, October 05, 2009

Daily Links, Oct 5, 2009


A cyclist contemplates the innumerable choices for farms and restaurants on 130 between Dahu and Sanyi. What are the offerings on the blogs this week?
MEDIA: If Ma has really "ushered in a period of stability" as everyone says, why is everyone worried about the military balance between Taiwan and China? Is it Ma's policy that creates stability, or lots of shiny late-model fighter aircraft? Taiwanese LCD makers say China will be leverage against Korea, Japan. Second trade fair between Taiwan and St Lucia opens. CNA says new ag biotech park is going to make big $$. Taiwanese poachers in the Philippines. The 'rice bomber' goes organic. Taiwan wants Pinoy scientists to study meteorology there. AP says Parma sat still because Melor pulled it back toward Taiwan. Central Bank intervenes to keep the Taiwan dollar from rising too quickly due to improved export outlook. Ma faces trouble as KMT Chair. India's strategy toward China is changing even as China issues special visas for Kashmiris and for Arunachal Pradesh, saying that the people of the latter are "Chinese." FEER on the next Chinese revolution. Alishan to reopen in late October. The KMT splits in Kinmen, Taoyuan, Taitung as primary losers launch independent candidacies. More women in the labor force. US Admiral fears poor communication between Chinese, US navies.

MOVIES: Radio Australia interviews Will Tiao, director of the new movie, Formosa Betrayed. Will, can we have it here in Taiwan, on the ground, before the election?

AFP WATCH: AFP veers between success and insanity. On one hand balancing The China Wants to Eat Taiwan formula by saying that Taiwanese don't want to be annexed to China. Too bad they use "reunification." On the other hand, J Michael busts on another burst of ethereal nonsense, little more than pro-PRC glossalia, put out by AFP.

EVENTS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS: October 31, Taiwan Gay Pride Parade. Owner of the domain names 'gueishan.com' and 'taoyuancity.com' with the exact same spelling as is found on many thousands of bus stops/official logos/etc. in Gueishan and Taoyuan wants to sell them. Flip me an email if you want them and I will put you in touch.
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Sunday, October 04, 2009

The Hidden Factor in Local Political Faction Struggles =UPDATED=

Some excellent work in the Taipei Times recently on the Yunlin by-election victory of the DPP over a split KMT. Chen Chao-chien wrote the other day:
The two major KMT factions in Yunlin County are the Chang (張) and Hsu (許)families. No doubt a split between independent candidate Chang Hui-yuan (張輝元) and KMT candidate Chang Ken-hui (張艮輝) from the Chang family, which is led by former Yunlin County commissioner Chang Jung-wei (張榮味), was a key factor behind Liu’s victory. Meanwhile, the Hsu family, which was first headed by another former Yunlin County commissioner, Hsu Wen-chi (許文志), and is now led by his son Hsu Shu-po (許舒博), boycotted the Chang Ken-hui campaign to express their discontent with the KMT’s decision to backtrack on the nomination of Hsu Shu-po as chairperson of Taipei Financial Center Corp in June amid speculation that the nomination was political payback for Hsu Shu-po’s withdrawal from the KMT’s Yunlin County commissioner primary.

In other words, it was the Hsu family’s passivity that contributed to the low voter turnout (45.55 percent) and the low number of combined votes garnered by the two Changs (52,025 votes), which accounted for just 70 percent of the number of votes garnered by Liu (74,272 votes). Neither supporters of the Hsu family nor a majority of voters in general wanted the Chang family to control all political resources in the county. Moreover, given tensions between senior KMT officials and Hsu Shu-po, there was no need for supporters of the Hsu family to back KMT candidates to prevent the party from being defeated in the by-election.
This loss was followed by ranking KMT politician Wu Po-hsiung's visit to Yunlin to attempt to mediate between the six factions to see if they can agree on a candidate for the Yunlin county commissioner. If the faction splits continue the DPP candidate for county chief could be a major winner in Yunlin. At the same time, the party dispatched another heavyweight to see if it could solve the problems in Hualien, where Ma Ying-jeou's handpicked County Magistrate, Yeh Ching-chuan, basically sent down from Taipei, was soundly beaten in the KMT primary as voters opted for a local. Mediation by KMT HQ became necessary when disgraced legislator Fu Kun-chi announced he would probably be a candidate for commissioner as well.

The Taipei Times manfully strove to argue that the recent thumping in Yunlin, the Penghu Casino Referendum defeat, and the loss in Miaoli back in March show that the KMT brand has been damaged by the Ma Administration's loss of popularity. As the Da-an by-election shows, there is probably an element of this involved, but I am wondering if there is a neglected structural factor at work as well.

The common link between the three cases is that in each case the KMT split because a powerful local politician didn't get the party nomination. In Miaoli the party cynically nominated the wife of Lee E-tin, the legislator who had lost the seat in the first place due to vote buying. The winner was another KMTer who had left the party to run against him, and who promised to vote with the DPP in the legislature -- the DPP didn't even have a candidate in the race.[UPDATE: Commenter below says he caucuses with the NPSU]. In Yunlin the KMT again split, handing a crushing victory to the DPP. In Hualien the losing candidate in the primary will probably also run a separate race. Finally in the Da-an by-election held back in March when Diane Lee was found to be a US citizen, the Blue vote was split, although the New Party did not affect the outcome (and the DPP candidate did relatively well).

I am wondering if what we are really seeing in such splits is the longterm result of the reduction in the size of the legislature, from 225 seats to 113 -- meaning that basically half the faction politicians who used to be able to get seats must now toil in the wilderness. As a resource becomes scarce, its value rises, and individuals will go to greater lengths to obtain it, whether it be petroleum or legislative positions. In this case, I wonder if more and more politicians who used to prosper in the bosom of the KMT may well consider that their livelihood depends on greater....independence.

UPDATE II: The CNA published this news on similar splits in many areas:
Former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislator Wu Cheng-tien (吳成典) yesterday ignored possible disciplinary action from the KMT and established campaign headquarters to announce his candidacy in the year-end Kinmen County commissioner election. Wu lost the party primary to Kinmen County Councilor Lee Wuo-shih (李沃士) earlier this year. The KMT nominated Lee in June....

Lee’s announcement created another pan-blue split for the KMT in local government elections scheduled for Dec. 5, with the party scrambling to handle splits in Hualien, Taoyuan, Taitung and Hsinchu.
UPDATE III: Add Chiayi, where sources say the Hsaio faction, in the person of Hsiao Teng-piao, is peeved at the KMT and may also mount an independent candidacy.
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Our Failed Media Case #73019

That's me in the pic there on the way to cycling up 130 between Dahu and Sanyi in Miaoli. A gorgeous ride, highly recommended.

In a long article on the 60th anniversary of the PRC, the Washington Post said:
Chas W. Freeman Jr., a veteran diplomat, China expert and former senior Pentagon official, said he did not see a threat to the United States and noted that Chinese military spending is still a fraction of U.S. military spending. Indeed, the Reuters news agency reported Wednesday that two unnamed sources close to the People's Liberation Army said China would reduce its 2.3 million-member army by 700,000, though increases in the air force and navy would offset part of that.

Freeman said the only weapons China has deployed against the United States -- cyberwarfare tools -- were not on display Thursday. "They have no intention of fighting a war in the United States, but we have done a lot of planning about fighting them on their territory," he said. "Their answer has been cyberwarfare."

Freeman did say that Chinese military advances have affected Taiwan. "The Chinese now do have the ability to punish Taiwan so severely that even if the United States intervenes, Taiwan can't win in any sense," he said, adding that the development "has basically brought Taiwan to heel."
Note how it describes Freeman, who was the object of a intense debate earlier this year over his thinking on Israel after President Obama nominated him for the NIC. The knee-jerk reaction to his appointment from the AIPAC noise machine on the right and its opponents on the left completely overshadowed what should have been the real topic of discussion, Freeman's business links to China (once again proving that the most important territory Israel occupies is American foreign policy debates), and beyond that, the business links with China so common in our foreign policy class. The WaPo presentation is a perfect example -- Freeman is represented as an expert and former diplomat, not as someone who sat on the Board of a PRC State-owned oil company, who also has other, prior business links, and whose son does business with China. Sad.
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Daily Links:
  • The Taipei Times observed today that the Judicial Yuan was mulling limiting detention to 15 months. It's the common pattern in the Chen case -- changing the law after Chen has been punished by it.
  • Johnny Neihu nails it: the PRC is like "a bunch of North Koreans made good."
  • FP asks whether China has Taiwan in a Strait Jacket.
  • Gary Pisano, one of world's most important business researchers, says in Harvard Business Review that the US is outsourcing its competitive edge. No shit, really? On tap for later today: Harvard Business Review announces discovery of flint knapping, fire.
  • Quake rocks Taiwan this morning -- woke me up.
SPECIAL: Don't forget to monitor typhoon Parma on the CWB. Could be as bad a Morakot, over a greater area of the island. Torrential rain expected beginning Monday, the 5th.

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Friday, October 02, 2009

School for the aristocracy?


I have a close friend, one of the most intelligent, tough-minded people I know, who contends that if the universities here were reformed so that there was no test system, and everyone got in American style on grades and extracurricular activities, the system would become totally corrupt as everyone bought grades or bought their way into better universities and departments. By taking the applications process out of the hands of universities, the college entrance exam system prevents the process from being sold to the highest bidder.

This week an opinion piece in the China Times pointed out how the nation is moving in that direction. One of the departments was taking part of the student inflow based on grades and extracurricular activities. The new system is called "甄試" which is like an audition, or the scouting combine in the NFL in which potential NFL players are evaluated before Draft Day. The students can apply to a school, and on a certain day they 甄試 at the school -- going there, dressed to the nines, and answer questions from the department teachers. Points are given for extracurricular activities such as foreign travel, and the ability to speak good English. Looks naturally count, in the usual hidden way. Because this is Taiwan, a network of cram schools has already sprung up to coach the kids how to 甄試.

The students can 甄試 at more than one school. If they fail that, the 甄試 students can also take the college entrance exam, essentially meaning that the rich have two cracks at getting into a good school. I blogged before on how a different but essentially similar system designed to help the underprivileged can be gamed by the rich, at a local "bilingual" school where wealthy and connected kids had their grades adjusted so that they could get into college (note that this system does work; I am merely demonstrating how such systems quickly become corrupted). Rumor has it that exactly the same thing is happening with the 甄試 system -- wealthy or attractive children are given better grades so they can get into better colleges, and give their high school face and attract more students to it. In a system where births are declining and there are fewer children each year, things are going to get cutthroat pretty fast.

The writer notes:
這五十多位來甄試的同學中,大概七成來自台北縣市,普遍來自好學區學校或貴族私校;總共只有十二位同學來自中南部。這些在學校成績和活動參與上皆出類拔萃的學生父母中,約一成是大學教授,一成是醫生,其它有企業主、基金經理人等;父母直接務農的,好像一個也沒有。難怪,系上的清寒獎學金,值金融海嘯之際,還是一直沒人申請。

Of these more than 50 students who entered through 甄試, probably 70 percent are from Taipei City and County, generally from good school districts or elite private schools. Only 12 students in all came from central and southern Taiwan...of these, one of the parents is a university professor, another a doctor, others are businessmen or fund managers, and so forth. There are none whose parents are farmers...
"There are none whose parents are farmers..." the writer teaches in the Department of Agricultural Economics. The writer then notes in the next paragraph:
普遍而言,北部學生英語程度比南部學生好。這也難怪,許多學生(大部分來自台北縣市)有出國旅遊、遊學、或當交換學生的經驗,有人甚至每個暑假都出國。除此之外,他們興趣廣泛地參與多項「貴族」的活動、學習「貴族」的樂器。所以當偶爾看到甄試同學(中南部學生)中有人的興趣只有打籃球、彈吉它這類「免錢」的活動時,不免覺得落差很大。盡管他們學測成績相同,有「貴族」氣息的學生,在分類評分表上,當然是比只能從事「免錢」活動的學生占優勢。

In general the English of students from the north is better than from the south. It is not surprising that many students (mostly from Taipei city and county) go abroad to travel, to study, or as exchange students. Some even spend every summer overseas. In addition, they participate in many "elite" activities, and learn "elite" musical instruments. When I see the 甄試 from central and southern Taiwan, whose interests are only playing basketball, playing guitar, and participating in activities that are free, I can't help but feel the gap is very great. Even though their grades are identical, students whose scorecards have "elite" activities naturally have priority over those with only free activities.
The testing system always favored the wealthy over the non-wealthy, nuclear families over extended families, people in Taipei over people elsewhere, cities over rural areas, etc: those who had access to good schools and had the money to educate their children intensively had a leg up. Perhaps there is no way to ensure that the children of non-elites have the same crack at the university system as the rich. But I think my friend's prediction is already coming true.
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10 Conditions of Love Taipei Showing

Went to see the 10 Conditions of Love, the documentary about Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer, at Da-an Park in Taipei yesterday.

There was a good crowd, which was quite lively, laughing, crying, and clapping during the film.

How was the movie? Much better than you think. Kadeer is a charismatic, intelligent, and effective leader whose people live under Chinese colonial rule, which the film makes abundantly clear. The history of both Kadeer and Xinjiang are powerfully and effectively portrayed, and yet at the same time, it manages to give you some idea of what Kadeer is like as a human being and not a figurehead. Technically the film is of high quality. It should be required viewing for all Taiwanese.

After the show Frank Hsieh came out to give a talk.

Hsieh works the crowd.

After the show a group of us celebrated the PRC's 60th by heading over to a Xinjiang restaurant (HJS), where we killed an entire production run of Taiwan beer. Listening to a Taiwanese woman there talk about how they had been taught to regard Xinjiang and Tibet as part of China, and how moving it was for her to listen to the story of East Turkestan (the name of Xinjiang before the PRC colonized it), I felt again: this is a film that everyone on the island should see.

You can also see how completely shameless the KMT's refusal to grant a visa to Kadeer was -- here is a regime which, as my good friend Michael Fahey noted, operated a blacklist against its own people, exiling so many, and which thus has a special obligation to political exiles everywhere. But at the same time, because Kadeer is so effective, it is easy to see why they wouldn't let her in.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009

Empire State Building Salutes Mao

As the people of China celebrate the 60th birthday of the PRC with martial displays -- entirely appropriate considering the death toll of that government over the years -- the Empire State Building, in a burst of insanity, has decided to turn the building yellow and red in "celebration" of Mao's murderous regime:
Wednesday night in New York City, the Empire State Building will illumine its familiar spire with red and yellow lights in honor of Communist China. The Communism-themed color scheme will stay lit through Thursday night, much to the delight of China's consular officials, who were on hand for a ceremony in the lobby of the iconic building Wednesday morning, and to the acute dismay of the dozen or so protesters outside, and to many Americans who question whether honoring China's Communist revolution here is at all appropriate.
I've got an idea -- after the Empire State building is done being red and yellow for China, maybe they can turn it green, white, and red for the Columbo crime family!

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Typhooon Parma may gobsmack Taiwan

The Swinden Group says:
As of 1500 GMT September 30, 2009, Typhoon Parma, with sustained winds of 85 mph, is located about 160 nautical miles north-northwest of Palau. Parma is a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale of 1 to 5 and is expected to intensify to at least a category 3 storm.

Over the next several days, Typhoon Parma will track towards Luzon, Philippines while intensifying and could come dangerously close to Luzon battering the region with torrential rains triggering life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Once past Luzon, Typhoon Parma is expected to track towards Taiwan reaching the region early next week.

“As Typhoon Parma travels closer to the Philippines, the immediate threat from this storm will be the possibility of torrential rains causing widespread flooding for central and northern Philippines,” explains Matthew Swinden, President of the Swinden Group. “If Parma continues on its forecasted track, it will skirt by Luzon, Philippines on Friday and Saturday. Even with a near miss, damage to the infrastructure due to widespread flooding could be a threat as we saw with Tropical Storm Ketsana last week. Travel in and out of Luzon may be hampered over the weekend and into early next week. We have been urging our clients to have a plan in place in the event they need to leave the area. Those that are remaining to ride out the storm should be prepared to be self sufficient, and fend for themselves for at least 72 hours if not longer.”

While Parma may prove to be a near miss for the Philippines, Taiwan may experience a direct hit. The Swinden Group is advising their clients to prepare for the worst in Taiwan as Parma may have devastating effects upon the region if it makes a direct strike.
Gird thy loins, prepare thy pocketbook. Parma (yesterday pic) looks like it is going to swing north over the Philippines and then veer into southern Taiwan. Could be grim.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

KMT Administration set to ease restrictions on hi-tech investment in PRC

AFP has the call on this one:
The long-standing controls on investment in China are now under government review and could be relaxed before the end of 2009, Shih Yen-hsiang told parliament.

"The discussions will not take a long time. We expect there will be a conclusion before year's end," he said in response to a question from a lawmaker.

The lifting of restrictions referred to by Shih would apply to high-tech industries in particular, said Huang Hsien-lin, an economics ministry official.

The Commercial Times earlier on Tuesday reported plans by the ministry to allow Chinese investors to buy stakes in Taiwanese flat panel and microchip makers.

....

Local businesses are among the biggest foreign players on the mainland, with at least 80 billion dollars invested, but Taipei has imposed limits on high-tech firms fearing it could give China a technological advantage.

President Ma said in June his administration had been considering allowing Taiwan's semiconductor companies to set up plants on the mainland, introducing state-of-the-art technology.

The proposal was welcomed by local microchip makers, who have been pushing for a relaxation of controls under which they are permitted to invest only in mainland plants producing low-end, eight-inch microchips.
The article I've linked to below gives more information on one of the major hidden issues: State ownership of industry in China, and more importantly, a State strategy to retain and expand state control of industry and industrialization. Before readers wonder how successful this can be, the article points out that State-controlled firms are competitive with private enterprises. O brave new world....

We have already seen this state-business nexus in other forms, in Korean chaebol and Japanese kereitsu, and of course, the numerous Party-State businesses in Taiwan. I would argue that these are not positions on a spectrum but evolutionary variants that appear(ed) in different political-economic contexts. The CCP will not permit the Development State to be outcompeted by the private sector, when it can simply swallow any competition, or swamp it. State control of key industry is a hallmark of Confucian thinking on how the economy works (anyone remember that classic, Discourses on Salt and Iron?). Moreover, as the article below points out, this Development State functions to keep foreign firms in subordinate positions. And as everyone knows, China covets foreign technology.

The Ma Administration's position is that this state-run juggernaut really ought to be permitted to invest in Taiwan's technology firms, both in its telecom sector, and in its crown jewels. Perhaps such investment might be welcomed, if it could be shown that the there would be significant transfer of technology, capital, and management expertise from China to Taiwan, as has been the case in the past with US and Japanese investment in Taiwan. But quite obviously the flow is going to be in the other direction. And quite obviously, China wants to hollow out our industrial base, since it is the foundation of Taiwanese freedom.

The AFP report mentions Korea and Japan. It is not difficult to see what has happened to Korea even with its more limited investment, as this report from 2006 is already saying:
"A recent KOTRA survey of South Korean firms operating in China showed that half
believe they have lost their comparative advantage in technology."
One constantly hears from "centrist" KMT apologists that "other nations are investing in China" and "the KMT has a plan." I'm curious to understand how, if China is negatively impacting Korea's large and powerful technology sector, how sending even more of our hi-tech industry to China will enable Taiwan to raise incomes and productivity so living standards can rise further. If sending our industry to China will make us wealthier, let's send all our industry to China -- then we'll grow 15% a year! That's the KMT "plan" that I am always hearing about -- if Taiwan permits its hi-tech firms to move to China, the island's economy will expand.

Sure.

I'm going outside to build my runway now, waiting for those Chinese planes to land and discharge plenty of cargo.
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Daily Links
As mentioned above, Mucha Man over at Forumosa.com pointed me to this excellent paper that argues that:
Contrary to many other analysts, we do not view the dominant role of the state in China's industry (and, more generally, in China's economy) as a possibly necessary - albeit wasteful - evil, which will be superseded once the transition from a centrally-planned to a fully capitalist modern economy will be completed. We rather see it as a primitive, embryonic, ever-evolving but permanent form of strategic planning aimed at fostering industrial development, and as a key distinctive, structural, and pioneering characteristic of market socialism.
Will economic growth bring democracy in China? When the State owns all important industrial concerns one way or another? People have grown so used to Taiwan's freewheeling freemarket ways that they have forgotten that the KMT attempted to do much the same thing in Taiwan. In many ways, with the intimate connections between the Party-State and business, it did. Remember when cable TV was illegal and the bus companies were state-owned and private bus firms illegal? The Establishment Carnegie Endowment for Int'l Peace points out that Chinese savings are part of this strategy (also a feature of Taiwan's Miracle days). Kadeer plans to sue Taiwan's gov't. High court continues Chen's detention. BBC rings up another one: telling how Taiwan feels about 60th anniversary of PRC entirely from KMT POV. No mention that some people here might not have any connection to that.
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UPDATED=Ten Conditions of Love Screening in Taipei Wed and Thursday

Just got this:

They will be held tonight (Wed) and tomorrow night (Thurs), starting at 7:30 both times, at the Taipei City Council building (Renai Rd. Sec. 4, No. 507 -- just next to the SYS Memorial park's Renai entrance, nearest MRT is also SYS Memorial Hall station). Seating is first come, first served, and although the room is large, there might be a lot of people coming.....

Nope! Below:
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"Ten Conditions of Love" will be screened in Daan park tomorrow nigh (Thursday, Oct. 1) at 7pm to coincide with China's 60th National Day. A recent documentary about Tibet "Leaving Fear Behind" will also be shown. The film's director Dhondup Wangchen has been jailed since March in China on charges of inciting separatism. The films will be shown at the outdoor theater. To access the outside theater, enter the park on the east side of Xinsheng S. Road across from Jinhua St. Here is a map. The nearest MRT station is Guting Station, about a 20 minute walk. Entrance begins at 6:30pm and is free althoiugh donations will be accepted.

There will also be screenings tomorrow evening in Taichung, Tainan, Kaoshiung, and Pingtung at the following locations:

Taichung: Taichung Broadcast Station (放送局) No. 1 Diantai St.
Tainan: Tainan Theological College and Seminary
Kaohsiung: Central Park
Pingtung: Pingtung County Cultural Center

There will be also showings tonight (Wed.) and Thursday , starting at 7:30 both times, at the Taipei City Council building. located at No. 507 Renai Rd. Sec. 4. That's just next to the SYS Memorial park's Renai entrance. The nearest MRT is also SYS Memorial Hall station.

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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

WSJ Double Plus Good Today

Some good blog love going to to Ting-yi Tsai at WSJ today, who went where lesser media organs feared to tread. Earlier this week I highlighted an unforgivably awful BBC report that appeared to be little more than stenography from Xinhua, which repeated the standard "Beijing says Kadeer is a terrorist" claim, and then wondered aloud why news organs never point out that no evidence has been offered to support that widely disseminated claim. Today Tsai wrote in WSJ (its a shorter version of the article):
The Taiwan government on Friday said it would not allow Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer to visit in December, in another sign of China's increasing clout over the island. Kadeer, the U.S.-based leader of the World Uyghur Congress, had accepted an invitation to visit Taiwan and applied for a visa. But the government said Kadeer's visit would hurt Taiwan's national interests, citing terrorist links that have been claimed by Beijing but not accepted by most western countries or independent analysts.
Progress! One day I hope to see the forthright declaration that Beijing has never submitted any evidence for its claims. Great work. The full-length article goes into some detail discussing the KMT claims and the pro-Taiwan sides' rebuttals, along with the fear that, as I have noted many times, the closer we get to China, the farther we get from democracy.

Also on the Kadeer affair, WSJ offered an excellent editorial today that looks at the problems for the island nation's democracy that result from the Ma Administration's kow-tow to Beijing.
Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou was elected last year largely to improve the island's economy through closer links with China. His government is misinterpreting that mandate to include closer ties with China's authoritarian politics, too.

There's no other way to interpret Taipei's decision to refuse an entry visa to Rebiya Kadeer. The Uighur activist was invited by a local rock star Wednesday to visit the island in December. The Ma government shut that idea down fast. Interior minister Chiang Yi-hua told parliamentarians Friday that Ms. Kadeer's World Uighur Congress "is related to terrorist groups" and thus couldn't visit the island. Premier Wu Den-yih added the decision was "in the best interests of Taiwan and its people."
The article notes, as every observer has, that other nations have had no trouble admitting Ms. Kadeer, and that Taipei does not have the Uighurs on any list of terrorists. It then points out the paternalism of the government's response:
As for the claim that it's in citizens' "best interests" not to listen to Ms. Kadeer, surely that's a decision for the individual, not for the government, to make—a choice made possible in a democracy. Taiwan is home to a variety of pro- and anti-China groups, both of whose views are covered extensively in the island's lively media. Why not let Mrs. Kadeer present her evidence of China's brutal campaign against the Uighurs and then let citizens decide what they think?
The government has repeatedly permitted individuals who have made threats to kill Taiwanese, such as this fellow, to move about freely in Taiwan. Kadeer, on the other hand, threatens no one. WSJ continues:
By refusing Ms.Kadeer a visa—before she even applied, no less—the Ma government is appeasing China. Shortly after Ms. Kadeer's trip was announced, Chinese state-run media threatened to pull Beijing's support for Taiwan's membership in the World Health Organization and to halt cross-Strait economic liberalization. Beijing raised a similar fuss when Taipei let the Dalai Lama visit the island earlier this month to comfort victims of Typhoon Morakot.
It is easy to see how China's dribble of concessions on the WHO is being used here. It can be revoked any time, since it exists solely at the pleasure of Beijing, and thus, represents a hold over the Ma Administration. As WSJ observes, the kowtow here means that the Ma Administration is losing its leverage, since Beijing can constrain its freedom of action by threatening to withdraw any of the tiny drabs of benevolence it has dropped on Ma's head. The DPP had the right idea -- no compromises, bargain for concrete gains only. That is the only way to deal with China.

For a couple of years, long before the election, it's been clear that Ma has staked the future of his administration on the willingness of China to cooperate. What this means is that China's control is absolute -- since China has no incentive to help KMT, the KMT will be forced to offer more and more concessions to get anything out of Beijing. Since Ma and the KMT, unlike the DPP, do not draw the line at sovereignty, where is the limit on what the Blues will be willing to concede? We got a little taste today, when Taipei completely capitulated to Beijing, and echoed the line that an old woman who is a millionaire businessman is a terrorist.

And let's not forget that some of those far right Nationalist nutcases within the KMT still think that Xinjiang is rightfully China's, just like Mongolia, Tibet, Taiwan, and heaven knows what else. There is more at work here than mere kowtowing in the hope of getting Beijing to keep the benefit taps flowing.

It will be interesting to see whether voters punish the KMT for its accelerating acceptance of Beijing-centered politics.

It will also be interesting to watch the "centrist" apologists for the KMT come out in droves over the next few days. Kadeer was a stunt that threatened Taiwan's economic livelihood! they will screech, invoking the hidden, and false, dichotomy between democracy and economic growth. Hogwash -- not a single businessman in China has been threatened, not a single export halted at customs, not a single traveler molested. Beijing almost never takes concrete action, only symbolic action (as in the delayed arrival of minor negotiators over the Dalai Lama visit) aimed at the media, to enable them to gush reports of "tension" like 16 year olds swooning over Elvis.

Nope: the Kadeer invitation was a scalpel that exposed the burgeoning pro-Beijing cancer at the heart of Taiwan politics.
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Monday, September 28, 2009

10 Conditions of Love Director & Producer Open Letter to Chen Chu

From the producer and director of 10 Conditions of Love

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給高雄市陳菊市長的公開信
OPEN LETTER TO MAYOR CHEN CHU,
KAOHSIUNG CITY HALL

親愛的陳菊市長,
Dear Mayor Chen Chu,

身為《愛的十個條件》的製片與導演,對於您堅持本片在高雄電影節如期播映的勇氣感到敬佩,同時也對高雄市政府協助影片後續加映事宜表達我們的誠摯感謝。身為電影創作者,我們感到相當幸福。

As the producer and director of “The 10 Conditions of Love”, we thank you sincerely for the courageous and principled decision of the Kaohsiung City government to permit further screenings of our documentary at the Kaohsiung Film Festival (KIFF), in addition to the screenings last week. As filmmakers, we are doubly blessed.

我們希望其他加映場次能跟高雄電影節原先規劃的初衷一致,同時也讓那些曾經對您長期為民主、人權奮鬥打拼的堅定立場有過一絲懷疑的人,無論在台灣、在亞洲,還是圖博、新疆,甚或全世界,皆能重拾信心。

We hope these additional screenings, forming as they do the original intention of the KFF, will reassure those who may have wavered in their faith in your long-standing struggle and adherence to the struggle for democracy and human rights in Taiwan and Asia, in particular in Tibet and Xinjiang, and in the world generally.

我們相當感激您為高雄電影節播映《愛》片一事所承受來自中國的強大壓力。

We appreciate the immense pressure brought to bear on your administration by the PRC over the programming of the documentary in the Kaohsiung Film Festival (KFF).

我們相信,您對《愛》在影展期間如期播映的堅守立場,必然會受到全世界輿論與電影愛好者的支持,同時更提升了高雄電影節的格局,因其無懼各種壓力、永遠捍衛影展完整性而在國際間聲名遠播。

We believe the symbolism of your decision to permit further screenings will be welcomed and acclaimed by commentators and film-goers around the globe and will permanently establish Kaohsiung as one of the region’s most important and serious film festivals with an international reputation for integrity under pressure.

高雄電影節在規劃全台一連串《愛的十個條件》放映活動之後,也將在台灣建立一個領導文化的地位。我們知道目前許多個人或是團體宣稱有意接洽此片公開播映權,在此我們公開宣佈,委託高雄電影節全權處理所有在台放映事宜。

Kaohsiung Film Festival will further establish its position as a leading cultural force in Taiwan by its plan to organise advance screenings of “The 10 Conditions of Love” throughout Taiwan. We have had numerous approaches by some parties in Taiwan claiming to have acquired rights to screenings, but we wish to confirm that only Kaohsiung Film Festival can authorize screenings.

高雄市政府與高雄電影節已經相當努力排除任何政治力干預而達到現在這個目標,我們希望任何想要播映此片的個人或團體能先跟高雄電影節聯繫,不僅是真正經過授權,更因為法治是保障人權的第一步。

Kaohsiung City government and KFF have worked hard under great political duress to achieve this outcome. We hope organizations who wish to screen the film will contact KFF. It is important that these screenings are conducted legally because the rule of law is the first step towards the guarantee of human rights.

中國持續強力干預民主國家個人觀賞影片的自由,然而幾個月前中國對於澳大利亞與紐西蘭所施行的抵制行動,最後都以失敗告終。

China must be resisted powerfully in its attempt to tell democracies what they may or may not see. It has attempted in past months to do this in Australia and again in New Zealand. In each case, its efforts were rebuffed firmly.

不論是圖博、維吾爾族或熱比婭‧卡德爾事件,對中國妥協絕對無法解決問題。

Compromise does not work with the Chinese in the matter of the Uyghurs and Rebiya Kadeer. Nor with Tibet.

請讓我們引用Taiwan News的社論其中的一句話,「言論自由絕對不能退讓。─不論在台灣,或任何一個地方。」

We refer to a recent editorial in Taiwan News this week which said that there can be no retreat on free speech. - not in Taiwan, not anywhere.

最後,我們要再次表達您在這次行動表現上的敬佩與感激之意。

Once again, we express our gratitude and admiration for your actions in this matter.

John Lewis Jeff Daniels
Producer製片 Director導演

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Daily Links, Sept 28, 2009

Checking for swine flu at public gatherings.

I was going to get such a lot of work done today. And then I stupidly started reading The Historian. Meanwhile, you can take the temperature of Taiwan on the blogs today....
MEDIA: Penghu gambling victory in Reuters. China's investment boom: great leap into the unknown. Taiwan News on victories in Penghu, Yunlin. Death Penalty in Asia, including Taiwan. Taiwan commits to US wheat purchases for 2010 and 2011. Stable wheat prices are a necessity for so many small family run bakeries and noodle shops. Seismic testing off Taiwan stresses marine life. Taiwan military in Washington pressing for F-16s. Everyone says KMT gets wake up call in election. Too soon to tell, folks. Taiwan has 279 yards to lead E. Washington past Sacramento State. "Few could have predicted" (HSR from AFP) is on my top ten things I never want to hear again. Lots of people thought the HSR wasn't a winning proposition (like this from 2003) as did all of the private investors who ran the numbers and pulled out. The only people who didn't know were the public. Ex-independence activist goes to China, then forms pro-China party. Replay: Taiwan fishing captain says Japanese ship rammed his boat. The Central Bank leaves interest rates at record low 1.25%. US academics criticize treatment of Chen. Legal experts question ruling in Chen case. Morakot washed down 980,000 tons of driftwood. Remittances by Taiwan firms in China are on the rise. Kaohsiung Film Festival will screen Kadeer documentary. Taiwan helps Panama with endangered orchids. TSU: ECFA will cause crisis, with bonus former HSR chief saying industries moving to China killed HSR. Ma ideology watch: another unprecedented Ma Ying-jeou association with Confucius worship.

SPECIAL: Taiwan is one model for educational reform in US. I think it is time for a post debunking Taiwan's amazing math claims. As many observers have pointed out, the article does not even mention CRAM SCHOOLS. Hello, does anyone actually know anything on the other side of the pond!

SUPER DUPER UBER PROUD DAD SPECIAL: New rock stars blossom in Taiwan.

UNTAIWAN: Awesome collection of recent editorial cartoons at DKOS.

MODELS: This cool paper compares economic forecasting models in predicting the current economic crisis. This model shows that the 1970s Viking lander just missed finding water on Mars. And new climate models show that when it comes to Planet Earth, our elites are following a variant of the Nike strategy: just doom it.
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