DPP: 2 steps forward, 1.9 steps backward Redux

When you absolutely, positively, have to cross that river.

Many DPP leaders linked the goal of democratization directly to the issue of Taiwanese identity and the principle of self-determination (Hu and Chu 1992). Because this subethnic cleavage transcended socioeconomic strata, the DPP consider it an effective counterstrategy to the KMT's broadly based socioeconomic development program. It was also an issue that could unite tangwai members of different social and economic interests under a common cause. -- Bruce Dickson

Some of the cleavages within the DPP are starting to appear as the May 20 handover approaches... Tsai has done a wonderful job holding the party together, but...

President-elect Tsai Ing-wen finally had to tell her incoming cabinet members to shut up this week after a couple of embarrassing incidents....

President-elect Tsai Ing-wen on Saturday warned her prospective government members against wasting the team’s credit by making careless remarks.

She made the statement in an address to a “consensus camp” in Taipei City’s Yangmingshan area of her Premier-designate Lin Chuan with about 40 of the ministers and Cabinet members who will be sworn in on May 20.

Remarks by at least three of the members had to be countered by the prospective Cabinet leadership after they caused public unease.

Nothing demonstrated this necessity more than remarks of Chang Ching-sen, a Minister without Portfolio, on social activists and urban renewal. He had caused an uproar:

The controversy stemmed from a Facebook post by Chang on Monday about an ad advertising the Wenlin Yuan (文林苑) urban renewal project in Taipei’s Shilin District (士林) that in 2012 met resistance from the Wang (王) family who had refused to be relocated for the renewal and sparked a protest that was joined by scores of activists and students.

“[It was] the most kuso [a term in Taiwanese subculture meaning memed or parodied, but has evolved to indicate something nonsensically funny] activism in history. The Wang family that seemed to have been persecuted by the construction company and the government had a house that was 56.06 ping [185.2m2], but now has been distributed five apartments that total 175.02 ping with a value of more than NT$100 million [US$3.1 million],” Chang wrote.

“Fuck! How pathetic,” he wrote. “I meant those highbrow young people who howled for justice and staged candlelight vigils for the family.”

Chang soon deleted the Facebook post after it attracted a barrage of criticism.

However, Chang wrote another post saying he had no intention of making fun of the Wang family and the activists,” and added: “If the Wang family is still not satisfied with the five apartments they got, I can only say that they are unhappy billionaires. The [2012] protest, in my opinion, has stigmatized urban renewal and halted the city’s renewal projects.”

As an aside, it seems a widespread dodge among people who take things here in Taiwan that taking is ok, if something equal or greater than the thing taken is "returned." Recall that Ma Ying-jeou, when on trial for downloading government funds into private accounts, said that he had made donations greater than the amount of funds he took.

Chang's technocratic contempt for the activists was shown in his "standing firm" despite an apology for his words. The cabinet is made up largely of men and technocrats, and apparently its average age is just over 60. I expect that the social justice wing of the DPP and its supporters is going to become increasingly disenchanted with it over time. Though a commenter on my blog aptly termed it a suicide squad, here to take it on the chin for a period before it is replaced. [ADDED: Taiwan Law Blog just tweeted: Undeterred that the cabinet is only 10% women, Lin Chuan picks 6 more men to be deputy ministers (storm article)].

Ma Ying-jeou's last little vicious gift to Beijing, a fishing dispute with Japan, received a boost this week when the government sent patrol boats to Japan's claimed EEZ off Okinotori Atoll (contrary to media reports the Coast Guard said that the garrison on Taiping Island/Itu Aba was not increased). This is a small headache, fortunately, since Japan realizes that Ma too will pass. But Tsai will inherit this headache, which will put her at odds with the fishing lobby.

The incoming transportation minister also opined that maybe the new rail link to the east coast wasn't the best idea, a public statement that will likely cause the new administration further headaches. Transportation is THE issue for the east coast, whose residents have trouble getting train tickets because of the tourist crowds and the lack of trains. The east coast elected DPP legislators this year... it might not if the DPP does not give it the transportation infrastructure it demands. Because the DPP has been patiently cultivating the east coast -- Hsiao Bi-khim has done amazing work -- this decision could be even more important than the fight with the fishing and pork lobbies.

A larger headache is the looming fight over American pork. A legislative committee passed a motion demanding that imports of ractopork from the US be banned. Ractopork would cause large losses in the local pork industry, according to the article....

In a report to the committee, the Council of Agriculture (COA) yesterday said that allowing imports of US pork containing the feed additive ractopamine would cause about NT$14.3 billion (US$442.99 million) in losses a year to pork-related industries.

“There are about 5.5 million pigs bred by more than 8,000 farmers in Taiwan. Pork ranks No. 1 among all agricultural products,” COA Deputy Minister Huang Kwo-ching (黃國青) said. “The nation’s pork self-sufficiency rate is 91.1 percent, with an estimated total economic output of NT$71.74 billion per year.”

US pork is heavily subsidized by the US government. There is no way Taiwan can compete with that, and the ractopomine controversy exists simply to keep that subsidized pork out. Good. But the pork farming and fisherman are important lobbies... recognizing this, Changhua County Chief Wei Ming-ku, a DPP politician, has already come out in support of a ban on ractopork.

MEDIA FAIL: O be serious. WSJ says in an awful piece arguing that cross-strait relations are getting worse in the run up to the May 20 handover to Tsai (no, they are not, but it is sexier to maintain they are):

Perhaps like Richard Nixon, the only leader who can put relations on a new and more stable basis is a former firebrand like Ms. Tsai.

"A former firebrand?" 180 degrees wrong! Tsai is famous for not being a firebrand. What a total distortion of reality, and a disservice to the incoming President. But it doesn't end there....

...Kenyan judges acquitted the suspects, but China asserts it has jurisdiction and wants the suspects tried where the victims were affected. That Beijing offered Kenya some $600 million in loans one week prior to the deportation likely helped.

(1) Kenyan judges didn't acquit the suspects (8 were convicted of document forgery and did a year in jail). They were acquitted for charges relating to illegal telecom equipment and illegal business organization, but not tried on the fraud charges. Since China sought to try them on fraud charges, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that it was a deal China and Kenya had arranged long before, meaning that... (2) the $600 million in loans was probably not a driver of the affair; Chinese police had been asking for the suspects since Dec of 2014 and Kenya had probably agreed long before the loans (see #1 above). The loans are more likely to be related to China's long-term purchasing of influence in competition with the US -- Kenya used to be a major US ally in the region.

This editorial is like a stroll through the greatest hits of China-Taiwan myths:

Departing President Ma Ying-jeou established closer ties with China, including a free-trade agreement, by accepting the slogan of “one China, separate interpretations” as the basis for talks.

ECFA was not a free-trade agreement, but a managed trade agreement designed to let Chinese goods flow into Taiwan and gut Taiwan's industries. There was no 1992 Consensus of "one China, separate interpretations" and Beijing does not accept that formulation. The basis for CCP-KMT cooperation is China's desire to annex Taiwan. Everything else is noise.

WSJ also forwards the myth of China giving Taiwan "economic carrots." The stats don't lie: ECFA has been bad for Taiwan no matter how you slice it. It is, at this point, sheer stubborn laziness to keep writing sentences like this:

Despite the economic carrots offered by the mainland, Taiwan’s separate identity grew stronger during his eight-year term.

Substitute "BECAUSE OF" for "DESPITE" and you might be a bit closer to the truth. The purpose of ECFA was to tie Taiwan's economy to China's gut its industries, reduce its trade surplus (fallen every year since ECFA was inked), and pave the way for further agreements. Once the public experienced ECFA (which never had majority support) it promptly rejected the subsequent services pact. D'oh.

Why is it so hard to get people to stop writing as if they were taking psychic dictation from the Spirit of Inertia?

PS: WSJ, stop writing "the mainland." You're thinking of Hainan Island. This is Taiwan we're talking about. Just write "China".
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Daily Links:

• Is it time for US aircraft carriers to visit Taiwan? Yes, after Tsai comes in!
• Shannon Tiezzi on the Japan-Taiwan fishing spat
• Taiwan still hoping to attend WHA as observer
• If you want to see the failure of ECFA up close and personal, read Drew Kerslake's brutal account of Giant's failed ventures in China and the growing bike industry malaise. Giant's exit from Dajia severely harmed the Taichung economy, for zero gain for Taiwan. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

AJISS: Japan - Taiwan Fisheries Agreement Backgrounder and fisheries agreement round up

This recent cycle of late afternoon thunderstorms is really playing havoc with my cycling, since I like riding in the nearby mountains but don't like descending on slick, leaf-covered, muddy roads threatened by landslides. The picture above is Shuili at about 5 pm the other day. My friend Wayne and I had taken the 147 over to the 131, swung around Sun Moon Lake, lunched, and then climbed the Nantou 63 in anticipation of one of the best descents in the area when all hell broke loose. The skies deluged us. We took refuge in front of someone's house, waiting thirty or forty minutes while the pounding rain continued, and finally flagged down a little blue delivery truck. He raced down the descent over several landslides including a couple of small trees lying across the road, applying the Taiwanese theory that road conditions are irrelevant if you just drive fast enough. All the while he had one hand on the wheel and the other on his cellphone, while chatting with my man Wayne up front. I sat in the rear, stunned, watching the landslides recede into the distance. Rapidly. 

AJISS has an interesting commentary that goes into some of the political aspects of the Fisheries Agreement between Taipei and Tokyo. It observes:

As the above account shows, the Japan-Taiwan fishing talks were wrapped up via political decisions made by both sides. However, the greater context of regional politics that made these decisions possible cannot be overlooked. China-Taiwan relations have stabilized since the Ma administration came to power, and the US, Japan and other neighboring countries have welcomed this. A political understanding on prioritizing the development of economic ties over sovereignty issues premised on both parties belonging to "one China" has brought stability to China-Taiwan relations. In light of this understanding, China has outwardly criticized the words and deeds of the Ma administration but finds it difficult to take actions that would harm Taiwan's interests, as a loss of support for the Ma administration in Taiwan could result in the collapse of the "one China" premise. Realizing that the Chinese government would not protest or interfere, Japan and Taiwan then moved step by step along the process leading to the fisheries agreement.

"loss of support for the Ma Administration." Once again, Taiwan's democracy, which Ma must ostensibly appeal to in order to keep his underlings in power, places restraints on what China can do because it sees Ma as its servant.

Another piece on the agreement by a Japanese commentator observed:

Fishermen in Okinawa have been concerned about the illegal operations of Taiwanese trawlers. They have been asking that the Japanese authorities maintain order in the surrounding waters, securing the area so that they can operate safely, and arresting fishermen who operate illicitly. According to media sources, a Japanese government official commented that the agreement embodies about 80% of the desires of the Okinawan fishermen; however, fishermen from Kumeshima, who are close to the area where Taiwanese trawlers will be allowed to operate, may be dissatisfied. Protecting the interests of fishermen in Okinawa is necessary for the Japanese government.

Illegal trawling operations by Taiwanese fisherman have cause political problems for Taiwan across the Pacific. When commentators in Taiwan argue that the agreement with Japan could be a model for an agreement with Philippines, what they mean is essentially an agreement that legalizes Taiwanese poaching in Other People's Waters. The Japan Times reported that in practice Tokyo is strictly and rigidly interpreting the agreement. The June 13th piece notes:

Since the agreement came into force May 10, Taiwanese vessels have been detained for trespassing four times, only one of which in a zone subject to the agreement. The other three cases concerned fishing equipment drifting outside the zones.

The Japan Coast Guard has increased the number of vessels to patrol waters beyond the areas subject to the fisheries pact at the request of Okinawa’s fishermen.

The Taiwanese fishermen, of course, are not happy either.

Huang Yi-sen, chairman of Yilan County’s Association of Fishermen’s Rights, said the way the Japanese authorities are carrying out the agreement is “simply too strict.”

For instance, while the JCG previously allowed some leeway when infringements occurred, it is now detaining Taiwanese trawlers when their fishing equipment drifts out of the zone even less than 1 nautical mile, he said.

Suao Fishermen Association Director Chen Chun-sheng said if the situation continues, Tokyo will push Taiwanese fishermen into the embrace of China, which has been acting like a big brother to Taiwan in its fishing disputes with Japan.

Yeah, right, like the Suao Fishermen Association wants to see Chinese fishing boats in those waters....

Agreements like this also highlight another aspect of the issue, Taiwan's food security. If you look at the  numbers, Taiwan appears self-sufficient in seafood and "produces" a large surplus. This is an illusion, however; Taiwanese waters are fished out. Rather, Taiwan "produces" so much seafood because it has access to the waters of other nations, legally and illegally. Preserving this access and maintaining harmonious relations with the Pacific island nations whose waters are trawled by Taiwanese boats should be a core policy of every Taiwanese administration. That Taiwan's policies are so China-focused is one of the many costs Beijing's desire to annex Taiwan imposes on the people of Taiwan.
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Rounding up the Phils/Taiwan mess: Take 3 =UPDATED=

A spider awaits prey in the early morn in a field near my house.

Well, by now I'm sure you know that the Ma Administration rejected the Philippines apology as "lacking in sincerity" (yes, well Mr. President, that's a common problem with apologies extracted at gunpoint). Sanctions have now been imposed. The Taipei Times listed....

The eight measures proposed yesterday morning by the government after a national security meeting, are issuing a travel warning that discourages Taiwanese from traveling to the Philippines, the suspension of high-level meetings at the World Health Assembly, the suspension of economic exchanges, the suspension of cooperation on agriculture and fisheries, the suspension of cooperation on technology, the suspension of negotiations on air space rights, the suspension of the visa-free program for Philippine nationals and that Taiwan would hold military exercises in disputed waters.

The first wave of sanctions — the suspension of the hiring of Philippine workers, recalling Taiwan’s representative to the Philippines and sending the Philippine representative to Taiwan back to Manila — also took effect yesterday after the Philippine government failed to meet the Ma administration’s demands by the president’s deadline.

These are truly over the top. For example, there's no travel threat to Taiwanese in the Philippines. Meanwhile the Navy and the Coast Guard held exercises today in a show of force. Oz Soapbox has a detailed review of the whole apology mess with a bonus observation -- he thinks China is dictating the Philippines' response (I do not agree).

The sanctions will continue until (KMT news organ):

The Premier stressed that the 11 retaliatory measures would remain in effect until the Philippine government formally fulfilled the ROC’s four stern demands in a positive and concrete manner, i.e., the Philippine government must formally apologize, punish the culprit (s) and indemnify the family of the deceased and the owners of the fishing vessel for property damages, as well as begin fishery agreement negotiations as soon as possible. The Premier disclosed that the government was currently assessing whether or not to adopt stronger measures in a third wave of sanctions.

Me Tarzan! (thumps chest).

Lots of commenting and observations. Ben over at Letters from Taiwan notes how neatly Manila has used the One China policy, which Ma supports, to avoid talking to Taipei. Ma is actually playing into Beijing's hands....

More LOLs today as permanent Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) obviously didn’t get the memo from David Lin over at MOFA, that Beijing’s One China policy means a) China is not cooperating with Taiwan on the spat with the Philippines and b) is actively blocking attempts by Taiwan and the Philippines to sign a fishing agreement. Wang, instead, is pissed off that Philippines President Aquino has cited the One China principle as why the highest levels of his government cannot comment directly or speak to Taiwan on the issue of the shooting incident (or “blame Beijing because they don’t want us to talk to you Government to Government as equal bilateral international state actors”):

First, although I disagree with his acceptance of the toxic One China policy, Aquino is exactly correct in what he says. No amount of indignant exclamations to the contrary will change that fact. Perhaps Ma ‘The Constitutionalist’ Ying-jeou now understands what Chen felt like when he was similarly rebuffed and belittled in the international community. No wonder the KMT is up in arms given that they used to haul Chen across the coals for every slight against Taiwan’s international standing as evidence of his provocative ideological stance on simply stating that de facto independent Taiwan should be treated with some respect as a nation state. This is deeply deeply embarrassing for them. Furthermore, it belies the utter failure of the Ma’s diplomatic truce and mutual non-denial chimeras. Dear Wang, the Philippines can treat you that way and they are treating you that way and if you have a problem with it perhaps you should call the Presidential office to enquire how your Party’s President’s One China policy is not delivering any meaningful growth in Taiwan’s international presence or soft or hard power.

One should also note that Ma promised to be a peacemaker, not a troublemaker, when he took office years ago. Yet here he is cranking up temperatures with Manila for no reason other than to pander to the local electorate.

Of course Ma may also be nudging the island toward China by making it appear it has no friends but Beijing. I've commented many times on how Ma's longterm policy with the US and Manila and other potential friends is one of keeping things irritated, to isolate Taiwan and help tip it into Beijing's hands by creating doubt and resignation among Taiwan's population. My man Ben also posted a useful piece from Stratfor on how Taiwan's South China Sea policies and other policies in the area play into Beijing's hands. The relationship between the One China policy and this mess is so obvious that the Taiwan government was forced to publish a statement denying it.

Another possibility: note that one of the four demands of Taipei is the opening of fishery negotiations with Manila. Looks like they want to use the fisherman's death as moral leverage to gain this concession. But of course as long as Manila adheres to Beijing's version of the One China policy, negotiations might be a problem.

Finally, a commenter on another forum observed that Ma might well be trying to imitate Beijing's bullying of Manila over the Scarborough Shoal.

I'm also wondering if Ma would be more conciliatory if Filipinos weren't so brown-skinned.

And with all this deployment of the Navy and shuttling military and Coast Guard hither and yon, anyone hearing calls for increased military spending? LOL.

The US, as noted in the State Department briefing I posted below this, is not taking a side. I hope AIT has people in there telling Ma to calm down. Reps Steve Chabot, longtime Taiwan supporter, and Eni  Faleomavaega, who frequently takes Beijing's positions, both fired off a press release calling on Manila to apologize. Hmmm.... could it have something to do with the tuna canneries in Faleomavaega's district of American Samoa, whose longline tuna fisheries are operated by Taiwanese (and Koreans).

Speaking of which, the DPP is frothing at the mouth in its attempt to move to the right of the KMT on this issue. If only the party had shown some statesmanship, hewed to the center, and called for cooler heads until after the investigation was over. Lamenting this failure, Ben once again put it well...

Now here they are rightly pointing out that the Once China policy belittles Taiwanese sovereignty but refusing an apology that might defuse the situation.  It doesn’t get much more uncoordinated and Keystone Cops.  It’s almost as if there’s an election coming up.

Meanwhile, for some strange reason Manila is not rolling over for Taipei. A Philippines paper carried a Xinhua report that the government there has refused to let Taipei into the investigation of what happened in the incident. The government probably isn't much concerned because, as a Filipino news site observed:

The hiring freeze imposed by Taiwan against overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in the aftermath of the killing of fisherman Hung Shih-cheng in disputed waters should have no significant impact on the Philippine economy, a top government official and an economist both said Thursday.

“There are only around 2,500 Filipinos deployed monthly [to Taiwan],” Labor Secretary Rosalinda Baldoz told GMA News Online in a phone interview on Thursday when asked to comment on a Taiwanese media report.

She said that imposing other sanctions, such as sending the OFWs back home, would do more harm to Taiwan's economy than the Philippines'.

Baldoz estimated that there are around 85,000 OFWs working in Taiwan, a mere 0.0085 percent of the estimated 10 million Filipino workers around the world.

Of the 85,000, some 75 percent work in the manufacturing industry. The rest work in the personal service sector or in the fishing industry as fishermen.

Pulling out Filipino workers could make an impact on Taiwan's economy, especially the manufacturing industry, where they dominate the specialized work force, said Baldoz. There are Filipinos who have set up manufacturing and production companies there, she added.

“I don't think this [the job freeze] will be very significant economically,” agreed University of Asia and the Pacific senior economist Victor Abola, citing Taiwan's contribution to remittance and foreign direct investments (FDI).

“Investments or trade could be delayed, but that's just it. This is not something we will lose sleep about,” the economist added.

Aquino has been winning points among his own voters for his handling of foreign affairs, according to some reports I have read. There seems to be little incentive for Manila to kow-tow.

UPDATE: Forbes makes same point. Filipinos work in high tech where they are prized for, among others, their English skills. Also, this morning a friend and university prof told me the financial aid for his Phils grad students has been canceled. *sigh*

Finally, speaking of tensions, the drip-drip-drip against Okinawa continues. Global Times of China says that China should support Okinawan independence. Looking forward to that moment not far from now when Beijing starts diddling with Okinawan visas.

REFS: Interesting paper on military oversight of the Taiwanese fishing industry in the martial law era.
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More on the Phils/Taiwan Fisherman Mess

Delivering veggies in Tsaotun

The Taiwan Coast Guard has a couple of reports on its website about this (like to thank the anonymous commenter on a previous post). This one says the shooting occurred at "approximately 164 nautical miles south-east of Eluanbi (latitude 20 degrees 07 minutes east longitude 123 degrees 01 minutes)". The CNA graphic complete with a bit of unseemly nationalistic blood, has it located....

It is difficult for me to look at that graphic and not see the Taiwanese boats as operating in Philippines waters. In fact (read on below!) Manila has it in a slightly different location. Fortunately the CNA went out and solicited the unbiased opinions of experts from Taiwan who assured us the Taiwan boats were operating legally:

Hu Nien-tsu, director of National Sun Yat-sen University's Center for Marine Policy Studies, said that according to Article 51 of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, as a neighboring country to the Philippines, Taiwan's fishing boats have rights to legally operate in the Bashi Channel as well as rights to exercise their traditional fishing rights within the Philippines' archipelagic waters.

The article stipulates that an archipelagic state shall "recognize traditional fishing rights and other legitimate activities of the immediately adjacent neighboring states in certain areas falling within archipelagic waters."

Hu said that when disputes arise, it is necessary for the Philippines to reach bilateral agreements with Taiwan.

Liu Fu-kuo, a researcher at National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations, also said that the Philippine coast guard officials' decision to fire at the Taiwanese fishing boat is against international law and other laws related to the sea.

Here is Article 51 of UNCLOS.

1. Without prejudice to article 49, an archipelagic State shall respect existing agreements with other States and shall recognize traditional fishing rights and other legitimate activities of the immediately adjacent neighbouring States in certain areas falling within archipelagic waters. The terms and conditions for the exercise of such rights and activities, including the nature, the extent and the areas to which they apply, shall, at the request of any of the States concerned, be regulated by bilateral agreements between them. Such rights shall not be transferred to or shared with third States or their nationals.

The Taipei Times, in an empty and jingoistic editorial the other day, also referred to UNCLOS.

By opening fire on the Taiwanese fishing boat and killing the fisherman, the Philippines has violated the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which bans use of force against any unarmed fishing boat. The Ma administration should not passively wait for “positive responses” from the Philippines.

This pious reference to UNCLOS is somewhat ironic, given that the Republic of China is not a signatory (Wiki).

The editorial refers to the South China Sea and disputed waters, but the area in question is not either. Bringing up tensions and mixing up waters east of the Philippines with waters west of them is simply an attempt to snow the reader with appeals to nationalist emotions. Sad.

I got to wondering about the whole "traditional fishing grounds" claim, which is popping up in the media. Here is a paper on the history of longline tuna fishing in Taiwan. It notes:

When tuna longlining fishing was first introduced to the Toko and Takao fishing ports, local fishers only used sail-powered boats in coastal waters. They even believed, wrongly, that sail powered longliners were more suitable to harvest tuna than motored vessels. However, the situation gradually changed after the mid-1910s when Taiwan’s tuna fishing industry gradually expanded its fishing territories to greater distances which only motored vessels could reach.

Prior to the Japanese period, ships from Taiwan were not motored and did not go far from Taiwan's coastal waters. It was the Japanese who encouraged the development of the industry, and drove its southward extension, which reached 250 miles from Taiwan only in 1928, according to the paper.

This is worth stating out loud, and it applies to the Senkakus as well: these do not appear to be "traditional" fishing grounds. Neither are the Senkakus. Both became accessible to Taiwanese only after the Japanese introduced motor technology to local fishermen and encouraged Taiwanese fisherman to venture further south. Taiwanese fishing in Philippines waters is an extension of Japanese colonial policy. The idea that they are "traditional" is simply a way to do an end run around UNCLOS so Taiwanese fisherman can continue to poach fish in other people's waters -- and in the Senkakus case, attempt to buttress China's claim to the Senkakus.

It should be mentioned that Japan and the Philippines both have formal defense treaties with Uncle Sam.

Meanwhile the President continues to demand that Manila give... (KMT news organ).

The 72-hour deadline set by President Ma for the Philippines will expire at midnight today. It demands an official response about the incident involving a machine gun shooting on the ROC fishing vessel Guang Da Xing No. 28 (廣大興28號) by a Philippine coast guard cutter, killing its skipper Hung Shih-cheng (洪石成). During interpellations in the Legislative Yuan yesterday, Foreign Minister David Lin (林永樂), stated that according to the information that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) had on hand, the government of the Philippines would issue a statement in response to Taiwan’s demands, explaining Manila’s position on the issue today.

The "tough" response of Taipei should be set against the more mild responses from Beijing to the deaths of its fisherman at the hands of South Korea and Russia in the last couple of years, a sharp observer of Taiwan pointed out. The government's demands are (CNA):

Taiwan has demanded a formal apology from the Philippines, compensation for the victim's family, an investigation into the incident and punishment for the perpetrators, as well as open fishery agreement talks with Taiwan as soon as possible.

If Manila does not issue an appropriate response by midnight Tuesday, the government said it will "immediately" suspend the processing of applications by Filipinos seeking employment in Taiwan, recall its representative to the Philippines and demand that the Philippines' representative to Taiwan return to Manila.

Taipei has already done that before, in 2011, as I noted in the post below. In fact some people are wondering aloud whether this is payback for that humiliation Manila handed Taipei two years ago. In 2006 Philippines Coast Guard boats killed another Taiwanese sailor.

The Manila Times had a report from AFP, the Philippines press being occupied with the elections there:

But Philippine coastguard spokesman Commander Armand Balilo said the incident took place in Philippine waters and the Filipino personnel had been properly carrying out their duties to stop illegal fishing.

"If somebody died, they deserve our sympathy but not an apology," Balilo told reporters.

Balilo said the incident happened just north of the main Philippine island of Luzon in the Balintang channel, which is part of the Philippines' territory and not claimed by any other country or Taiwan.

"This is part of Philippine waters," he said.

Balilo said the 30-metre (100-foot) coastguard vessel initially saw two fishing vessels and tried to approach them. He said the coastguard crew fired at the smaller of the two vessels after it tried to ram the Filipino boat.

"They fired at the machinery to disable it. They were able to disable the vessel although they were not aware at the time that somebody had been hit," he said.

Balilo said the coastguard quickly left the area after it saw a third vessel, "a big white ship", come into view.

"Our people felt threatened so they left the area," he said.

Note that the two nations locate the incident in different though close places. President Aquino appealed for calm in Taipei.

Taiwan media are reporting that there is going to be a joint investigation. Let's hope there's a video out there that can help settle this mess.

Scary and sad, so many times when I look at pieces in English about this mess, I see little or nothing about the Philippines' claim that the boat was trying to ram the Philippine Coast Guard vessel (China Post, Commentary in TT). Merely the summary that the fisherman was shot. It's as if the Philippines vessel had no motive for its action.....

The KMT news piece had a comically sad comment at the end....

In addition, Minister Lin also pointed out that the Mainland was not a positive factor in the matter of concluding a Taiwan-Philippines fisheries agreement, adding that one of the main reasons that Taipei and Manila had failed to conclude an agreement after five rounds of fisheries talks was precisely the “One China factor.” He noted that the Philippines was rather concerned about the Mainland’s views, adding that, “the Mainland has not given us a helping hand in this matter.”

What? Beijing not helping Taipei in an international agreement? Who could have predicted that?

REFS: J Michael Cole's piece in The Diplomat, which mentions another aspect: an ongoing cyberwar between hackers from both countries.
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Japan-Taiwan Senkakus Fishing Agreement Makes a Splash

A spider grabs a bee for lunch in Taichung.

The Ma Administration finally did something right. News swept the region and the world this week that Japan and Taiwan have entered into a fishing agreement for the waters around the Senkaku islands...will there be peace? (Japan Times):

Japan and Taiwan concluded a long-awaited fisheries agreement Wednesday in Taipei after officials from both sides formally resumed negotiations for the first time in four years.

The deal will allow Taiwanese trawlers to operate in part of Japan’s exclusive economic zone near the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, sources close to the talks said.

Under the deal, Japan and Taiwan will designate an area in Japan’s EEZ as jointly managed waters where fishing by both Japanese and Taiwanese boats will be allowed.

The jointly controlled zone excludes waters within a 12-nautical-mile (19-km) radius of the Japan-held Senkakus.

Since things remain to be negotiated, the two sides agreed to set up a joint fisheries committee to carry on with the work. The Asahi Shimbun pointed out that the lack of agreement meant that Japanese Coast Guard vessels had seized many Taiwanese boats; this should now stop. Michal Thim at Taiwan Perspective gives the details of the agreement. Thim notes:

From Taiwan’s perspective, reaching a deal on fishing rights is the optimal result. Taiwan does not have physical control over the islands and has limited means and thus basically no reason to try and acquire physical control. Domestic public opinion does not allow for a strong anti-Japanese stance and Taiwanese are little interested in territorial nationalism. Thus, fishing rights are the only issue that the public really cares about and this is well reflected by politicians, both from ruling Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who face major elections every two years.

As a number of analyses have pointed out, the fishing agreement makes Ma look good at home. On the Japanese side, the agreement enables Tokyo to split Ma from Beijing by offering him a deal. Democracy at work, Ma is following the same policies the DPP did for the same reasons, because they are popular at home. One of the ways Taiwan's democracy protects Taiwan is that it helps enforce such outcomes regardless of which party is in power. The public cares about fishing rights, but does not care about ROC territorial claims, since it identifies with the ROC only to the extent that the ROC is identified with Taiwan. Although, I suspect Washington was quietly working in the backrooms, pushing for Taipei to mend fences with Tokyo and to stop irritating relations with Japan. Corey Wallace, writing on the Japanese media:

While the Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suge has already argued publicly that the agreement was to restore order over the East China Sea fishing issue and not to “split” China and Taiwan over perceived cooperation surrounding the Senkaku sovereignty dispute, no one, including the Japanese media, believes him. Both Jiji (日) and Yomiuri (日) report that an additional reason for the agreement is indeed to silence repeated Chinese calls for PRC-ROC cooperation over the territorial dispute. Jiji notes that domestically Ma has been forced to become somewhat less of a “hardliner” on the territorial dispute, and Japan’s willingness to make significant concessions played a part in pushing Ma towards relaxing his stance (Richard Katz, of The Oriental Economist, notes in a NBR post that many in Taiwan wanted to prioritize the fishing issue over the territorial issue, as also noted by Michal).

Wallace also described that PM Abe comes out of a line of politicians who are pro-Taiwan and who were more willing to make concessions. His and Thim's writings are excellent and should be read in their entirety.

BBC reported that Beijing was whining, as usual. On the surface it looks like Ma's coordination of "activism" in the Senkakus with Beijing will now be curtailed, to Beijing's detriment. I wonder seriously about this and about whether this will backfire on Tokyo and Washington....

For one thing, the agreement is to set aside "sovereignty" differences -- an actual application of mutual non-denial -- but does anyone really not believe that come September, the traditional month of traducing Tokyo, that "activists" campaigning "with no official backing" (the last time they were apparently funded by WantWant owner Robert Tsai) will nonetheless appear off the Senkakus, guarded by Taiwan's mighty water-firing coast guard cannon and fomenting incidents with Japan? After all, two more ships were just commissioned expressly for the purpose of safeguarding sovereignty in contested waters and fishing rights, said Ma hisownself. Taipei can always claim they were freelancers and there is nothing it can do.... the fact that this option exists and of course Tokyo must be aware of it suggests that there is either a secret protocol or an informal agreement that activist stupidity must cease. Otherwise Tokyo is going to look pretty inept when the Ma government shrugs with feigned helplessness and allows "activists" to perturb its relations with Tokyo over some rocks which only Beijing and the KMT argue are Chinese.

But let's say that all is well and the KMT Administration really does restrain its tiny menagerie of pro-Bejing loon-activists. Well hello! What will Beijing have to do to make up for the absence of Taipei as its proxy prick against the goads of Tokyo? Step up the pressure, that's what! Ironically, this agreement to make tuna, not war, might actually result in greater trouble in the Senkakus by removing the Taiwanese proxy and replacing it with real Chinese warships facing Japanese ships. The CS Monitor's staid approval notwithstanding, we'll have to wait for the annual fall antics of Beijing and "activists" in Hong Kong and Taiwan before we really have a handle on what this means.
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Daily Links:

• Way cool not Taiwan: NASA video: Watery environment on Mars
  

  "What the Curiosity team has found is incredibly exciting. When we combine what we've learned from our remote sensing and contact science instruments, with the data that's coming in from CheMin and SAM, we et get a picture of an ancient, watery environment, which would have been habitable had life been present in it."

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Greenpeace Occupy Action on Taiwan overfishing

Taiwan's fishing practices are a sore point with Pacific nations and with world environmental groups. Case in point: Greenpeace occupied K-town shipbuilding yard this week to bring attention to the problems of Taiwan's massive fishing fleet. Activists unfurled banners......

The Fisheries Agency yesterday denied accusations that Taiwan is complicit in overfishing in the western and central Pacific Ocean, saying the building of fishing vessels is strictly controlled by the government and that all newly built fishing vessels are replacements of old boats.

.......

Greenpeace said the agency agreed in 2008 to follow the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission’s (WCPFC) advice to limit the number of fishing days for its purse-seine tuna fleets in an effort to help Pacific tuna stocks recover from overfishing. However, it still allows the shipbuilding industry to build bigger ships with larger storage capacity, Greenpeace said.

It said the agency approved 22 new big purse seine ships between 2007 and this year, accumulating a total tonnage of 38,988 tonnes worth of new purse seines boats in five years — five times greater than the the tonnage of Japan, 14 times that of China and 38 times that of South Korea.

Banner in Kaohsiung (source). FTV video. Blog post of participant, with many pics.

Greenpeace's own press release stated:

Taiwan’s Fisheries Agency (FA) had agreed in 2008 to follow the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission’s advice to reduce fishing effort by limiting the number of fishing days for its purse-seine tuna fleets (1).

......

Instead, the FA has sidestepped the regulation and is allowing its industry to build bigger ships with larger storage capacity, directly undermining efforts to rescue tuna populations.

Taiwan's Fisheries Agency approved 22 new big purse seine ships between 2007 to 2012. And the total new purse seine tonnage is 38,988 tons (3).

Taiwan's distant water fishing fleet mainly operates in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, home to more than 60 percent of the world's tuna. Taiwan has the most fishing vessels in the region – 72 purse seiners and 1,600 long liners (4). In addition, half of the US purse seiners are owned and operated by Taiwanese companies.

Greenpeace has been tracking this issue for some time. Last year there was some media coverage of its report on how Taiwan's nearby waters are fished out. Notably:

Greenpeace says that 75 percent of the nearly $388 million spent by the Taiwan Fisheries Agency to subsidize Taiwan's distant water fishing fleet from 2002 to 2010 was earmarked for "enhancing the fishing capacity."

The subsidies explain why Taiwan's fishing fleet is so enormous. Seafood is the one area in which Taiwan is "self-sufficient" but this self-sufficiency is an illusion possible only because Taiwan continues to gain access to distant waters to fish. In fact, the massive harvest goes largely to exports to Europe, Japan, and the US.

Taiwanese boats operate all over the world. For example, this year a report on Somali waters observed that the still-plentiful tuna catch there supported large Taiwanese vessels hiring gunman from Sri Lanka to protect their boats. They sold the tuna at a profit in Japan because Japanese domestic regulations forbade hiring protection.

However, as Pacific Island papers have long reported, a (perhaps large) portion of the "Somali" catch is actually taken illegally in the EEZs of Pacific Island nations and then transferred to other boats in international waters, and reported as caught in Somalia. A report from a few years ago described this:

Japan says "fish laundering" was occurring on a wide scale. The tuna pirates meet shadowy cargo vessels on the high seas and transfer their catch. It is then taken to Japan where, depending on the state of quotas and placement of legal ships, the cargo ship declares the fish came from the South Atlantic or the Indian Ocean. Mostly it has been illegally taken out of the South Pacific.

Tokyo gave the example of Lung Yuin, a Taiwanese company-owned freezer cargo ship flying a Panamanian flag, carrying frozen bigeye tuna to Japan.

When authorities inspected it, they found that the tuna had been caught by 25 Taiwanese vessels and three Vanuatu flagged fishing boats owned by Taiwanese companies. All 28 boats had given false information about where they had caught the fish, while Lung Yuin had two log books-one true, the other false.

The Somali "pirates" are in fact the ritual scapegoats for the real, serious, and destructive acts of piracy against small Pacific nations carried out by the major Asian fishing nations every day, piracy used as political theatre. Imagine if the US navy deployed its fleet to stop that smuggling, worth hundreds of millions, instead of piracy by Somali freelancers, worth hundreds of thousands.

REF:

• Taiwan Fisheries Agency report on Taiwan Tuna and Tuna-like fishing. Good maps and much data, but knowing that paragraph about log books and tuna smuggling, how believable can it be?
• AmCham piece on Taiwan's fishing fleet. It notes, interestingly, that despite Taiwan's diplomatic isolation, its large fleet enjoys enormous prestige at international meetings.
• This academic paper on Japan, Taiwan, and tuna overfishing. Taiwan agreed to limit tuna sales to Japan but naturally these limits are exceeded....
• 2005 UK report on illegal fishing and smuggling 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.