The Next Victim?

Grades are in, editing work finished, and now I can return to that moth-to-candle-flame topic, politics. Without further ado....

Premier Hsieh stepped down recently, and it seems that Chen Shui-bian is likely to tap Su Tseng-chang as the new premier:

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) is expected to announce former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) as the new premier at a press conference this morning, a presidential spokesman confirmed last night.

The Taiwan News notes:

If chosen, Su will become the fifth premier in nearly six years of President Chen Shui-bian's DPP administration, following in the wake of Tang Fei (唐飛), Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄), Yu Shyi-kun (游錫堃) and Hsieh.

Hsieh, whom President Chen had hung out to dry on more than one occasion, most notably by giving him the thankless job of premier in the first place, left a parting gift for Chen: more revelations of dissension in DPP ranks:

Speaking with civic members of a Cabinet task force on the Olympics yesterday morning, Hsieh repeated that President Chen had consulted with the so-called four "stars" or "heavenly kings" of senior DPP leaders who are seen as possible contenders for the party's nomination for the March 2008 presidential election, namely Su, DPP Chairman-elect Yu Shyi-kun and Vice President and Interim DPP Chairwoman Annette Lu (呂秀蓮).

Hsieh stated Tuesday that Chen's effort at consulting with the four heavyweights in the hope of gaining a unanimous consensus on a candidate had failed and implied that he was not the reason for the failure.

The outgoing premier defended his decision to publicize the incident, saying that it was an "important issue for the country and for the DPP" and that "the people had the right to know" as the process revealed the behind the scenes concerns of top policy makers.

Hsieh said he had not intended to "fire a last shot" and said there was no reason for the president to be upset by his statements.

Giving Su the post is an act of mismanagement. The post should be given to someone who is young and not going to run for President. David at jujuflop discusses some of the reasons why the post is problematic:

There was almost no reaction from the stockmarket to this announcement - because the premier wields very little actual power. The premier (who is appointed by the president) presides over the cabinet (which is appointed by the president), reports on polices (which are set by the president) to the Legislature, and countersigns laws (which are signed by the president). In other words, the premier does the work of the president. It's worth noting that in other presidential systems (e.g. the US) and parliamentary systems (e.g. the UK), the leader of the country is also head of the cabinet. That these positions are separate in Taiwan is yet another sign of Taiwan's defective constitution.

Taiwan's hopeless government structure combines the worst features of both a Presidential and parliamentary system. The President has little formal power -- such power as he wields comes from his control of the ruling party. In this case, with the legislature in the hands of the pro-China parties, his enemies, the Presidency not only can do nothing, but takes all the blame as well.

From the perspective of electoral politics, the really serious problem with the premiership is illustrated by today's Taipei Times electoral cartoon, which showed a field full of crosses, and then an empty cross, with the centurion asking: "Who's next?" The premier gets no credit for anything good that happens, but will take the blame for all problems that occur within the ministries under his direction. Hence, to appoint someone to this post is to risk destroying them politically, as actually happened with Hsieh. Fortunately he wasn't in the post very long, is relatively young by local political standards, and will probably be able to recover.

Another problem that should be noted is the persistent problem of a lack of talent in the DPP. As David pointed out, the premiership is a revolving door with little real effect on the island. Hence someone young and up-and-coming should have been promoted, to give them a little seasoning, as well as take the hits that might have done serious damage to an established DPP heavyweight. But instead the party drew on one of its older, major figures. And now we must all hold our breaths to see if he will survive.

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