Monday, January 23, 2006

Articles on Taiwan's Defense

The Times of India reports that the Beautiful Isle has been hunting for aircraft to upgrade its now-outclassed F-16 and Mirage fighters:

Liu said Taiwan plans to upgrade its fleet of F-16 and Mirage 2000-5s and has made the request to the US and France but has not received their consent yet. "But we will continue to make the request every year," he said.

Taiwan ordered 150 F-16s and 60 Mirage 2000-5s in 1992. Their service life can last for another 15-20 years but the air force is planning to deploy third-generation warplanes by 2020.

To fill in the gap between now and the deployment of third-generation warplanes, Taiwan hopes to buy second-hand F-15s from the US Air Force, Defence Minister Lee Jye said on Thurday.

The article reports that Taiwan has also asked to buy the Joint Strike Fighter. I hope the US comes around on this one. Taiwan stands no chance against China without significant upgrades in both the quality and quantity of its fighter aircraft.

The Honolulu Star-Bulletin reports on US carrier anti-submarine warfare training, which is more or less aimed at China.

The exercises, held Jan. 9-12 near the Hawaiian Islands, are something Navy sailors will be doing more of in coming years. The U.S. Pacific Fleet has made training to track and fight submarines its top combat priority amid concerns its sailors' skills haven't been keeping up with the advanced diesel submarines China and other Pacific Rim countries have been buying.

"There is a real threat out there -- over 140 diesel submarines in the Pacific, and the technology on them is getting better every day," said Capt. David F. Steindl, who directed the Reagan strike group's ships and aircraft during the exercises. "We need to train constantly to be ready if we ever have to face that threat."

The article also notes:

Just over half of China's diesel submarines are outdated Romeo-class subs, but Beijing moved to upgrade its fleet by acquiring four advanced Russian-made Kilo-class submarines in the 1990s and ordering eight more in 2002.

Owen Cote, associate director of the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said when it comes to submarines, the United States is most concerned about the possibility China would use its diesel subs to block commercial ship access to Taiwan.

He said Beijing could use the tactic to try to force Taiwan to capitulate if Taipei and Beijing ever faced off militarily.

China considers the self-governing island a renegade province and has vowed to invade it if Taiwan declares independence. While the United States does not have official ties with Taiwan, it has committed to defending the island if it is attacked by China.


12 comments:

Anonymous said...

All those nice new fighters are going to need a place to take off and land. What are the chances the runways will still be serviceable when the shit hits the fan?

Michael Turton said...

Naturally aid from the US should include monies for hardening facilities and command and control systems (in fact the round of purchases in the 1990s did include some stuff that address that). There are some airports on the east coast that are underground. But taiwan is going to need massive upgrades to its AA defenses as well. Of course, if it has control of the air, then preserving its airfields will be easier. So the key is to get hold of enough aircraft to prevent saturation of the defenses and the suppression of its airfields. At the moment such aircraft do not exist.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Well, considering the billions the ROC still owes the USA in lend/lease (aka the Soong retirement fund) and still one of the world's largest forex reserves, going cap in hand for aid is pushing it eh?

Michael Turton said...

Well, I don't mean "aid" as in gifts...but well, assistance in defense. Permission to purchase.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Michael, keeping the airfields operating will be extremely difficult considering the Second Artillery will be dumping hundreds of missiles will runway penerators to destroy the runways in the very first wave of attacks. Good luck trying to operate under those circumstances. And the underground airbases will be targeted by cruise missiles coming around the other side of the island where the ballistic missiles can't hit.

Michael Turton said...

Are Chinese missiles really that accurate and do they have runway penetrators? Yet another reason to purchase MORE Patriots.

Michael

Anonymous said...

You will need hundreds of Patriots (at least a 2-1 ratio against incoming missiles) to have any chance to denting an incoming missile attack. It's a losing proposition from the point of cost (the Chinese missiles are much less than the Patriots) and the attrition as time goes on. Sooner or later the Patriots will be taken out by anti-radiation missiles and other weapons and then you will be defenseless.

Michael Turton said...

Yes, I am aware of that. The question is: do the Chinese missiles possess the requisite accuracy and technology to suppress Taiwanese airfields?

Anonymous said...

And this is why we need more of the new cruise missiles, to take out the missile launchers over there asap. Some ground attack aircraft would also be handy. Far cheaper and more effective strategy than waiting for them to arrive here and then try to pop them with the Patriots.

Michael Turton said...

Bingo. And more aircraft. For if Taiwan can keep its airfields in operation, it can suppress the ones across the Straits. But offensive operations are only possible if the island has aircraft and trained pilots in much greater numbers, and has the requisite practice in runway repair and defense. Not to mention a copious supply of spare parts and ammo. But long experience here leads me to fear that deficits will be experienced in those crucial logistical areas.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"And the underground airbases will be targeted by cruise missiles coming around the other side of the island where the ballistic missiles can't hit. "

Their effectiveness will depend on how refined they are and the strength, nature and employment of jamming techniques.

Anonymous said...

China is building a fleet of these Su-27 as bulk of their airforce...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUEIi7HbTBs

And also these Su-33 to take off a carrier (Yes, China will have a carrier, and you better believe it!!)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyISh7DxXuE


What Taiwan needs is to buy something like 120 to 160 Rafale fighter aircrafts (then Taiwan will some fun)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6WfSy_VBqA

Or... perhaps a fleet of F22, but somehow I doubt US will part with them...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7Kk7h1aLCQ


If not, I highly consider a fleet of F-15...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgrNgdzTYJY

Or... probably just get more Mirage 2000-9, since we already have some of them in -5 model to began with...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkFrbaJRAo0

Anyhow, both US and Frence produced fine aircrafts. What comes down to the rest will be decided by the pilot!!

Iron_Jackal_TW