Wednesday, April 19, 2017

KMT Chairmanship Election: Candidates register

Spring went by quickly....

There is no lack of comedy in this election as the six candidates submitted their forms and signatures. Five of the six had over 100K signatures, with Wu Den-yih submitting over 200,000. However...
However, the total number of signatures submitted exceeded the 478,000 party members eligible to endorse aspiring candidates as of Tuesday. One hopeful ascribed this to possible duplicate endorsements or artificial inflation of the number of signatures collected.
Can you imagine electoral fraud in a KMT-involved election?

The Straits Times had a more serious review. Of Wu Den-yih, it observes:
Compared with his ex-boss, the Harvard-educated former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou, Mr Wu also has more of the common touch - he announced his bid for the party's top post with a campaign song that he penned, called "No Turning Back".

"I hope that the song will make it easier to remember what I stand for," said Mr Wu, who has won Mr Ma's endorsement to be KMT chief.
Wu, according to a couple of experts I know, was one of the factors hold down a KMT revolt against Ma during his disastrous second term. He is a smart insider politician. Unfortunately for Wu he is a Taiwanese, not a mainlander, and thus not acceptable to the Old Soldiers, who want a mainlander like themselves.

The interesting thing is whether the other two candidates, Hau and Hung, will split the Old Soldier vote and hand the Chairmanship to Wu. If that is the case, then expect Wu to run in 2020. If the Old Soldiers vote as a bloc, then they will anoint either Hau or Hung, and probably the latter. Hung will also have been Chair for the assets committee fight and the pension fight, taking uncompromising pro-KMT positions, which will endear her to the Old Soldiers whose votes will be decisive.

Hau was already warning voters and the party to be on the lookout for bribes, as if he were setting up a complaint to file in the future when he loses, to try and get the election annulled and ... held again? Thrown to the Central Standing Committee?

A Hung victory will pose a very interesting dilemma for the KMT. Who will be the candidate in 2020? The Chair has usually been the candidate, but Hung will never win the election. Will they force her to accept Wu or Hau? What will the price be?

Recall that 2018 is the local elections. Hung won't be much good for that, but Wu will.
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1 comment:

John Scott said...

re. how good Trump might be for Taiwan...

Whatever Trump knows about Chinese history, he gets in his 10-minute lessons from Chinese president Xi. What else can you say?

As soon as Trump's ego and ineptitude result in a shooting war with Syria, North Korea, etc. and the U.S. military (and world attention and opinion) is focused exclusively on those areas for the next few years... that will be China's golden opportunity to go ahead with plans to sink a few Taiwanese frigates and establish a blockade with deadlines for capitulation.