Thursday, December 15, 2011

DiPoll

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China Times Poll, Wed, Dec 14:
1. If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you support?
  • KMT Ma-Wu ticket      41.3%
  • DPP Tsai-Su ticket       36.8%
  • PFP Soong-Lin ticket    8.4%
  • Undecided                   13.5%
China Times Poll, Thursday, Dec 15:
1. If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you support?
  • KMT Ma-Wu ticket    40.0%
  • DPP Tsai-Su ticket     39.0%
  • PFP Soong-Lin ticket   8.0%
The China Times poll has had Ma up by six or so since I can remember. If it is within shouting distance of being correct, the smear of Tsai as stealing government money has backfired badly on the KMT.

Been chatting with people quite a bit. My unscientific poll says that most people think Tsai is going to win.

The United Daily News poll from the 14th has Ma up by ~7. The last Apple Daily poll from the 10th has Ma up by more than 7 with 29.6% undecided. I'd love to understand how Apple generates these numbers.
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4 comments:

J said...

Hope you're right! I mostly read blue papers, which really have been burying anything embarrassing to the KMT deep in a sea of SCANDAL!, giving the impression that the KMT is getting away with this. If they win after such a blatant manipulation of the government's powers, it will truly be a huge blow to Taiwan's democracy.
On a happier note, cool pic!

frozengarlic said...

The UDN data is a little older than the other two. Their latest survey was conducted Dec 9-12, so it predates the revelation of the misdated document. (Also, it seems like it might include the 1000 or so interviews that they conducted on the 10th after the VP debate and released as a separate survey result, which would be a bit strange.) I'm curious to see if the next UDN post will show a closer race.

Tommy said...

Interestingly enough, Liberty Times, which one might expect to show some kind of lead for Tsai at this point, actually has the two candidates within the margin error, but Tsai listed as behind: http://libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/dec/16/today-p1.htm

X Future has Ma up half a percentage point and Tsai down a fraction. The Tsai number is not of note. But the Ma one is a higher rise than in the previous few days.

Michael Turton said...

Yeah but Tommy, Tsai is like 20 points higher in the WIN prediction, at 69, than she was two weeks ago. And the predicted margin has actually risen a point -- the market is saying Tsai will win by MORE THAN TEN. C'mon, that's gotta be ridiculous.