Sewage Improvements!

Hey, there's an election going on! I havent had a chance to attend a political rally yet, but looking forward to it....The farmhouse scandal having been dealt with, the pro-KMT China Times is out with a poll showing a massive gap between Ma and Tsai, 8.6% with no third party candidate James Soong in the race....

KMT Ma-Wu ticket 41.0%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket 32.4%
No response 26.6%

....and 7.4% with Soong in the race, 38 - 30.6 - 13.2 (Soong). Note that Soong increases the number of declared voters, which may be an indication that he is taking independent voters. I'm skeptical of the poll spread, it feels much too wide.

This week President Ma announced more infrastructure growth, more metastasization of the developmentalist state in its quest to cover the island with concrete and then saturate the concrete in wi-fi. In addition to the usual highway construction, this had a couple of goodies I thought interesting and indicative:

He pointed out that while Taiwan has exceeded the indicators in categories such as employment rate, it is lagging behind some less-developed countries in sewage system infrastructure.

The government will increase the household sewer connection rate from the current 28.2 percent to 39.8 percent in five years and 49.8 percent in a decade, while improving the integral sewage treatment rate from 56.4 percent to 69 percent and 79 percent within the same time frames, the president said.

“The construction of underground sewage systems is costly, invisible to the public eye, and may cause great inconvenience, but it must be done for the sake of the country’s public health,” Ma said.

Another aim is to cut the water leakage rate from the current 20 percent to 17 percent in five years and 15 percent or less in the next decade, the president said, adding that the government will push for the installation of smart meters in 2 million and 6 million households, respectively, over the same periods.

These are good and useful goals. They are also something the American Chamber of Commerce here has been calling for nearly as long as I have been on the island. I hope they carry this out -- kudos to the KMT for proposing this. Taiwan's dismal water infrastructure is a trial for everyone on the island. Perhaps someone has finally decided to listen to AmCham. If so, many thanks for helping to drive an important material improvement in local lives.

Not that this package isn't a massive effusion of vote buying, but the sewage improvement is really needed.
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Daily Links:

• Sec of State Clinton says US remains committed to leadership in the Pacific and support of our allies, writes long article affirming this, doesn't mention Taiwan. *sigh*
• Taiwanese youths gather to beat, stab foreigners. 
• CFR: China and the South China Sea.
• Taiwan the irritant that refuses to consider (annexation under the guise of) 'reunification': Ted Galen Carpenter. Well, at least he's not arguing that Taiwan should be tossed to Beijing, and he does point out that the US is running out of room to maneuver. He still doesn't seem to understand that Beijing is half the problem in the Sino-US relationship. What does it take, I wonder?
• Meanwhile Michael Swaine says that the US should negotiate directly with Beijing over Taiwan because there could be a crisis (no, really?). "It is time for Washington to consider negotiating directly with Beijing, in consultation with Taipei, a set of mutual assurances regarding Chinese force levels and deployments, on the one hand, and major U.S. arms sales and defense assistance to Taiwan, on the other hand—linked to the eventual opening of a cross-strait political dialogue on the status of Taiwan". Would you trust Beijing to keep any agreement made? And further, how is that going to stop Beijing's military build up aimed at the South China Sea and the Senkakus? "This carrier group is aimed at the South China Sea, not Taiwan" Beijing could say against claims that it was violating an agreement. Be serious. Only a comprehensive negotiation that deals with all Chinese territorial expansion across the entire Pacific flank is going to solve this problem, and then we are still stuck with Beijing's inability to keep agreements. Goes double for any agreement made in cross-strait dialogues. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Tuesday Night Flights

I've erected an ersatz standing desk in my office. Really quite wonderful. Only problems so far is that there is no room for me to do other work like grading papers -- so this can't be a long-term solution -- and my hands have to relearn where the keyboard is! Because of my schedule I seldom use it for more than two hours at a stretch, thus pads and other foot supports don't seem to be necessary, so far.

The East Asia Forum, which often has interesting articles, hosted a piece this week by Carlyle Thayer that was supportive of the F-16 decision. There aren't any particularly good or interesting insights, but rather, it shows once again how Beijing-centric thinking has captured the minds of so many analysts. Consider:

The announcement of the arms sale could not come at a more delicate time. President Obama faces re-election in November. Taiwan will hold presidential elections in January. And China will embark...

Be serious. It's ALWAYS a delicate time in Sino-American relations. Something is always happening, and if nothing were happening, Thayer would sententiously scribe: "Sino-American relations are going really well and we shouldn't disturb them with new arms sales." There's simply no situation in which arms sales aren't going to be perturbing, because Beijing wants to make them that way. Repeat: it's not the situation, it's the policy of Beijing.

Selling F-16 C/Ds to Taiwan would almost certainly rupture currently improving Sino–American relations and inflict collateral damage on improved cross-straits relations championed by Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou.

It is quite clear that F-16 C/D sales would likely unleash domestic and nationalist forces in both China and the United States. Moderates in both countries would come under pressure to adopt a more confrontational stance. It is hard to see how undermining current positive security trends would contribute to improving the regional security environment in general and Taiwan’s security in particular.

More on Ma in a moment. More interesting is the upside-down understanding of moderates vs hardliners. The F-16 denial is a huge victory, not for "moderates" who share identical goals with hardliners, but the hardliners who have seen their policy of deliberate displays of anger, threats and continuous military buildup rewarded by a US retreat. It's debatable whether 66 F-16s would really be all that helpful, but there's no question of the symbolism that failure to sell F-16s shows.

In other words: what exactly did the US get for its kow-tow? Beijing promised not to be angry and take its toys and go home. Until next time. Note to policymakers: you don't make the monster smaller by feeding it.

Thayer writes further down:

A harsher response by China risks disrupting a number of diplomatic engagements scheduled later in the year such as the APEC Summit in Honolulu and the East Asia Summit in Bali. The effects of deteriorating Sino-American relations would be quickly felt across the Asia Pacific and almost certainly exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea. Depending on how badly this played out, Asia could enter a new Cold War.

No really -- the writer feels that temporary annual meetings are more important than long-term impairment of the security of an ally. No really -- meetings are more important than military hardware. I kid you not.

Moreover, if F-16s really aren't necessary, there is no need to pose the argument in terms of how Beijing is going to react. You could just say simply: F-16s aren't the solution and remain silent on how Beijing will respond. In other words, when you write that we shouldn't sell F-16s because Beijing will "become angry", you're implicitly affirming that selling F-16s is actually a good idea from the standpoint of Taiwan's defense.

Tensions are already in a long-term rise in the South China Sea -- they aren't going to get better. Perhaps the Cold War hasn't arrived yet, but what we're in right now is a pretty good imitation.

Re Ma Ying-jeou: The Hill reported a fascinating nugget: the Ma Administration is still lobbying for the F-16s. The article provides a list of firms and individuals lobbying for Taiwan on the Hill. Note this paragraph:

“Considering Taiwan would only use these planes for defensive purposes, it was a short-sighted blunder on the administration’s part not to sell Taiwan the new planes,” Sean King, vice president of Park Strategies, told The Hill. “We can’t let ourselves be bullied by Beijing. After all, the United States is mainland China’s No. 1 nation-state export market. Beijing needs us more than we sometimes realize.”

Park Strategies is very close to the Administration; when its office opened in Taipei a couple of years ago, President Ma showed up in person at the opening [MT: Nope, was Vincent Siew. Ma met with the head of Park, former Sen D'Amato, the next day]. I have heard that Park is involved in handling some of the big financial players in the US that are backing the Ma Administration. Given that the KMT blocked the F-16s for years under the Chen Administration, whether or not the Administration is sincere in these efforts to get F-16s is debatable. They had to have known years ago, like everyone else, that they weren't coming. Perhaps they've had a change of heart....

Ending on an upbeat note: the consistently good Philip Bowring identifies the fundamental contradiction at the heart of US Taiwan policy; namely, its interconnection with other areas of Chinese territorial expansion. I've made the same point many times on this blog. Bowring's analysis is spot on:

And Washington's kowtow to Beijing ignores the broader strategic picture in the region where the interests of the non-Chinese players in East Asia figure. To start with, South Korea and Russia will not be happy with greater Chinese dominance in the region. They may not say it out loud for fear of offending China but they have every interest in the status quo where Taiwan is independent and continues to defend itself.

Then there are the concerns of those nations in the South China Sea. The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia are all opposed to China's claims to the sea and its islands. Vietnam has already opened its port facilities to U.S. naval vessels, while Indonesia and Singapore have strengthened their defense ties. What's more, Manila and Hanoi have become especially outspoken in defense of their territorial claims in the past few months.

A visit to Japan last week by Philippine President Benigno Aquino ended with a communiqué strongly supporting a multilateral approach to the sea issue, compliance with freedom of navigation and a "legally binding code of conduct consistent with established international law." This was a none-too-veiled attack on China's claims and Beijing's insistence on bilateral negotiations to solve disputes in the region. Beijing, not surprisingly, reacted strongly; it warned Manila and Tokyo to be careful of exacerbating tensions.

Taiwan supporters should emphasize the interconnectedness of Taiwan with Beijing's other territorial demands when they point out how important Taiwan is to the US. Taiwan is important not only for itself, but for what it means to the other nations around it as well.
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Daily Links:

• President Ma calls for more democracy in China, but the piece is really about the election and is a sturdy summary.
• In case you didn't know ECFA sucked, here's more.
• Taichung Jazz Festival Oct 15-23. Shooting for a million visitors!

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Daily links, Oct 10, 2011

There are quite a lot of foreigners who don't think of themselves as part of a community composed of the foreigner ethnicity. But the fact is the locals treat us that way. To wit:

The Taipei City Government’s Department of Labor Affairs yesterday promised to strengthen inspections on illegal work cases of white-collar foreign workers after a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei City councilor accused a foreign English-language teacher of moonlighting as a male stripper.

DPP Taipei City Councilor Hung Chien-yi (洪健益) said the teacher from England registered his workplace in Hsinchu County. However, he was also found working as a male stripper under the stage name Eric in nightclubs in Taipei City.

The teacher’s illegal work status was exposed after he was involved in a dispute with a 27-year-old Taipei resident surnamed Wu (吳) at Taipei Wanhua Sports Center on Sunday, Wu said.

According to Wu, the person shouted at front desk staff at the center who would not let him in because he failed to bring a towel. Wu tried to resolve the situation, but was “almost involved in a physical confrontation” with the foreigner, who threatened to hurt him.

The yammerhead who got in a pissing contest over a 25 NT towel (for pete's sake) may end up causing trouble for other foreigners. Foreigners need to remember: you might not think you're part of a community, but the Taiwanese will treat you that way.

Commentary light this week....

BLOGS:

• Taiwan Ballon Museum.
• Oz attempts to join the Double 10 celebrations.
• The famous essay why is chinese so damn hard reappears at last
• A non-mandarin classroom
• Drew with magical pictures from his magical ride to Wujie
• Update on the Taiwan cycling festival.
• China handles Liu Xiabo's Nobel with dignity and maturity. China also steals Russian mil tech and markets it at lower prices. Isn't it time to reconsider the world's engagement with this rapidly metastasizing cancer in the international system?
• Fall colors of tea.
• Oz analyzes China's call for more control over Taiwan's media.

MEDIA:

• June Teufel Dreyer rips a couple of American academics for their incompetent analyses of Taiwan's situation. Names you know: Charles Glaser and Michael Swaine (don't miss my comments at the bottom).
• No really, this may well be the dumbest thing to appear about Taiwan since the days it was "Free China." A work of comic genius.
• Speaking of stupid, Huffpost can't get Taiwan right again.
• US arms sales to Taiwan: impact on Sino-US relations
• Michael Chase on why regional calls for US involvement in Asia aren't an encirclement plot.
• Nothing to celebrate for the nation's aborigines.
• Hindustan Times on China's military build up. 
• Think tank says Taiwan econ growth may have trouble reaching 4.5% this year.
• Shock: Taiwan having baby boom! Births up 16% in 9 months.
• Trivia question: what was the first country to recognize the ROC?
• AmCham complains that US officials don't visit Taiwan.

WAY COOL: Check out these immigration and emigration maps for Taiwan. Thanks to Aaron over at Red A. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Rounding up 100 years of the ROC

Lots of reportage on tomorrow's ROC centennial.... AP from Beijing reports that Hu called for annexation as "reunification" on the occasion of the ROC's 100th.

"Achieving reunification by peaceful means best serves the fundamental interests of all Chinese, including our Taiwan compatriots," Hu said, adding that the sides should increase economic competitiveness, promote Chinese culture and build on a sense of a common national identity.

AP went on to say that Hu has moderated China's rhetoric. Wouldn't it have been nice if the article had been balanced with the reality that China's military threat to Taiwan grows daily and Hu's remarks are just words (his underlings will publicly and privately apply threats, following the classic pattern of underlings doing the dirty work while the Great Man practices benevolence). When China actually offers peace and disbands its forces facing Taiwan, those words will actually mean something.

AFP's Benjamin Yeh reports from Taipei on the memories of centenarians and the ROC history. A nifty approach:

Liu and Yu fled to Taiwan in 1949, in a hasty retreat that forced both of them to leave behind their wives, because they had fought on the losing Nationalist side in a civil war that brought the Communists to power.

While the two sides have reconciled somewhat, the continued political division between them is testimony to the violence of the conflict that ended 62 years ago. And old enmities die slowly.

"My father had had dozens of acres of land, but all was stolen by the Chinese communists. You just don't know how bad they were," 100-year-old Liu said.

Old enmities may die slowly, but wouldn't it have been great if the article had mentioned that the real issue between Taiwan and China isn't a few centenarians and their hatred of the Communists, but the majority of people who want a free and independent Taiwan? And that the "two sides" are the KMT and the CCP? Taiwan and China have not "reconciled somewhat".

But then there is AP from Taiwan, whose presentation captures this aspect that the others do not. Way to go, AP!

Public interest in the centenary is lukewarm. While most Taiwanese don't want to come under China's control, they also don't see the events of 100 years ago as particularly relevant to their future. The media have barely acknowledged a series of heavily promoted government events in the run-up to Monday's ceremonies, and the big day looks likely to pass with a minimum of fanfare — no more, at any rate, than in other years.

Leading the ranks of the disinterested is the opposition, which remembers with horror the martial law dictatorship that Chiang brought from the mainland — it persisted until 1987 — and associates it directly with the Republic of China.

The opposition's main constituents are descendants of people who migrated from the mainland in the 17th and 18th centuries. Many of them reject any association with China in favor a culturally and politically distinct Taiwan.

"The Republic of China was forced on the Taiwanese people when the Nationalist Party came to Taiwan in 1949," says 41-year-old businessman Kuo Yen-chen of suburban Taipei.

Kuo doesn't think Taiwan will be annexed by China unless Beijing uses force. "The majority of Taiwanese do not want to become part of China," he says, "but the two will become even closer due to globalization."

The centenary is mainly of interest to locals because it is a national holiday, and thus, they can all form long lines cars as everyone goes to the same three places, all at the same time.

Much of the AP piece focuses on the prospects for China swallowing Taiwan... At 100, the title of the AP piece says, the ROC's future is uncertain. I used to think that it was doomed; either the Chinese would snuff it out, or the Taiwan independence movement would at some point, but sometimes I wonder if it is such a useful tool for annexing Taiwan to China that Beijing might struggle to preserve it for a while after it swallows the island. Cheaper than an occupation.....

In the US the Taiwan representative offices held celebrations. This piece from an Atlanta paper gives the flavor of fun and confusion (no, it's not Taiwan's 100th).
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Daily Links:

• Weak global demand to whack exports in Q4. Just in time for the election.
• Su Chi, the former NSC head and Ma's right-hand man (or Rasputin, depending on your interpretation), says that next year China will be consumed with its own challenges and tensions may not increase right away, and in either case, the new president will have a much smaller mandate to rule.
• Taiwan's DRAM dinosaurs are facing extinction.
• Israel and Taiwan to promote Yushan and the Dead Sea as new natural wonders. Yushan is beautiful, but let's be serious...
• Video: Ma vs. Aborigine. ROFL.
• Interview with longtime activist and commentator Paul Lin.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Things coming down the pike

First, and most importantly, look around you. Beerlao is making an export push in Taiwan. Beer-freakin'-lao. I found some today in a volume retailer in Fengyuan of all places. Hope it catches on, though I talked to the Beerlao girl at the beer display, and she said locals find it "bitter." I stocked up, who knows how long it will be available. My friend Greg, a veteran of that part of the world, found it in bottles at the supermarket in the Shin Kong Mitsukoshi in Taipei by the train station.

A university in the UK will be opening a blog dedicated to the 2012 election here on The Beautiful Island. The blog, with postings every day from an academic expert on Taiwan, will feature commentary from academics, commentators, and observers, and perhaps a few words from myself -- someone has to provide the right level of scruffiness so it sounds authentic to its readers -- and think how much smarter everyone else will look if I post there! It is scheduled to come online Nov 1. Stay tuned.

Also, Danielle Sleeper of the TAADC writes:  I thought you and some of your readers might be interested in learning a bit about our new organization, the Taiwan Alumni Association of Greater Washington DC (TAADC).

TAADC was founded earlier this year as a way to maintain a connection to Taiwan after having studied abroad there and to assist prospective students planning to go to Taiwan. While we are an independent organization, we do receive funding from TECRO. So far, we have held various working sessions discussing our experiences in Taiwan and a re-orientation event for those who recently returned. In the future, we plan to host professional development sessions, lectures and other networking outings in DC and possibly events for DC students while they are in Taiwan (our president, Austin Yoder, plans to be there for a year beginning in December and will be facilitating). Members include students, graduates and professionals in the Washington, DC area with a significant interest in Taiwan.

One program we have just started is the TECRO Fellows program. Two students who are currently studying in Taiwan will be selected to blog weekly about their experiences there. At the end of the semester, they will receive a stipend and certificate of completion (and a plug to put on their resume). 

Feel free to check out our website: http://www.taadc.com/
We are still in the process of developing the content, so please bear with us.

There is also a roundtable on Oct 18 at CSIS entitled "Should the US abandon Taiwan?" 12:00-2:00. Discussants: Nancy Berghof Tucker, Bonnie Glaser, Charles Glaser, Michael Swaine. RSVP to FreemanChair@csis.org 


MEDIA NOTE:
AP on the ROC at 100: An excellent piece for the most part, but.... "Ma denies that, but he has been vague about the end goal of his China policy, prompting speculation that he has accepted that union with the mainland may be inevitable at some point." When has Ma ever been vague about the end goal of his China policy? He's often stated it: annexation in the form of "reunification."
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Daily Links:

• Julian Baum's letter to the Washington Post about the Post's running Chinese state propaganda advertorials
• The Diplomat on asymmetric warfare as the antidote to China's increasing edge in conventional warfare. Just as China wants to do the same to the US.
• Also in The Diplomat (which is damned good and you should be reading it) is James Holmes on whether the US is a reliable ally.
• House hearing video from Oct 4
• Tsai to remain in Tainan for Double Ten Day
• OzSoapbox on the disgusting behavior of an English teacher/stripper, an out of hand tale making the rounds in the foreign community.
• Bicycle repair class offered in Taichung
• Taiwan seals deals for US grain. Big deals. And important with so many small businesses depending on stable grain prices and imports.
• Hey remember how US arms sales stimulated moderates in China and how the KMT moved in a deliberate, rational, step by step manner toward democracy? Yeah, I don't either. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

The State of Renewable Energy in Taiwan

A reader flipped me this great article on renewables in Taiwan from Platts Renewable Energy Report (purchase the whole report here)

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Despite being the world's second-largest solar panel producer, Taiwan generates almost none of its own electricity from solar power, a microscopic 0.01%.

Its other domestic renewable energy sectors, from wind to geothermal, also have lagged behind their full potential, according to analysts and industry observers, despite passage in 2009 of the Renewable Energy Development Act.

Prospects for change in the renewables industry are unlikely, even with the presidential and legislative elections just around the corner in January, analysts said, as an entrenched monopolistic state-owned electric utility, a manufacturing sector that relies on affordable energy and government policies that keep electricity prices low will continue to pose roadblocks to domestic renewable-energy development, no matter who wins.

In the presidential contest, incumbent President Ma Ying-Jeou of the Kuomingtang party faces a strong challenge from Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tsai Ing-Wen, with most polls indicating a tight race. "I don't think there will be much change in Taiwan's clean energy policy, even if there is a change in government," said Gloria Hsu, former chairwoman of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Union and a professor in National Taiwan University's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. "Ms. Tsai's energy policy definitely looks better than President Ma's for promoting green energy. However, she also lacks details, such as goals, schedules or possible measures."

Tsai, a former vice premier, has called for Taiwan to phase out its nuclear reactors by 2025 in the wake of Japan's Fukushima disaster, but so far has not outlined concretely how the country would make up for the loss of power, as nuclear energy accounts for 17% of Taiwan's electricity generation.

Ma, though he has given some support behind renewables, has maintained that nuclear power is vital to the Taiwan's energy mix, given the island's lack of fossil fuels and the still-developing wind, solar and geothermal industries. Taiwan currently has three nuclear power plants with a fourth under construction.

Tseng Weiwei, senior project manager of Taiwan Generations Corp, an offshore wind developer, said neither candidate has convincingly made the case that their administrations would do much to boost investments in domestic renewable-energy projects.

"No matter if it's the aggressive plan proposed by Ms. Tsai to phase out Taiwan's nuclear power plants, or it's the incremental change of energy portfolio proposed by the incumbent Mr. Ma to shift the focus from nuclear power plants to [liquefied natural gas] plants and renewable energies, none of the candidates has rolled out their implementation plans and pinned down the goal to be achieved," he said. "The real question is, how determined are the candidates to enforce and execute his or her energy policy?"

Taiwan currently imports more than 99% of its energy, costing the island of 23 million people 11.7% of its GDP, according to figures from Taiwan's Bureau of Energy. Oil accounts for 49% of energy consumption, followed by coal with 32.1%, natural gas with 10.2% and nuclear with 8.3%. Renewable energy accounts for a miniscule 0.4% of energy consumption.

In terms of power production, renewable energy generated just 4.7% of Taiwan's electricity in 2010, with hydroelectricity, wind, solar, biomass and waste combustion totaling about 5.8 GW in installed capacity.

The 2009 Renewable Energy Development Act aimed to raise renewables' share of the energy mix in order to bolster the island's energy security and protect it from price shocks precipitated by global dynamics. It set a goal of adding 6.5-10 GW of renewable energy generation by 2030 and provided 30 Billion NT$ (about US$1.03 billion) for construction projects and subsidies.

But its six-year stall in the Legislative Yuan before its passage in 2009 foreshadowed the political and administrative difficulties in getting the act fully implemented over the past two years. Political wrangling has kept feed-in tariffs for wind and solar too low to encourage much investment, and bureaucratic delays in project approvals and burdensome permitting processes have also stifled development, industry observers said.

As a result, Taiwan added just 82 MW of new wind capacity and 8 MW of new solar installations in 2010, according to figures from the Bureau of Energy. "Taiwan's solar installations increased 22% [year-over-year] 2009 and 105% YoY in 2010, which is similar to global growth," said Li Min, an analyst with Taiwanese brokerage Yuanta Financial Holdings. "As such, the act did not help much, in our view, based on installation numbers."

Much of the blame for the slow growth in renewables has been placed on Taipower, the state-owned electric utility, which has largely operated as a monopoly despite laws that allow independent power producers to generate up to 20% of Taiwan's electricity.

With most of its portfolio dominated by coal-fired and nuclear power plants, Taipower has been slow to embrace renewable energy, observers said. Further, government policies have kept electricity prices low in order to boost Taiwan's export-driven manufacturing sector, making it difficult for renewable energy to reach grid parity.

"We're glad to see the passage of the [Renewable Energy Development] Act, but we believe the government can improve its performance by taking more actions," Tseng said. "None of the targets [on installed renewable capacity] set in 2010 were achieved, and there's been no target announced for 2011 or even longer term. The absence of a national goal slows the development of renewable projects."

Political observers said Ma's ruling KMT party has been reluctant to challenge Taipower's virtual monopoly status. The KMT, which fled to the island in 1949 during the civil war with the Chinese Communist Party, ruled Taiwan as a one-party state until allowing free elections in 1996.

Caitlin Pollock, head of Asia wind energy market research for US-based consulting firm IHS-EER, said if Ma is re-elected, the government would be expected to continue "largely status quo policies toward renewable energy." Pollock noted his lukewarm support for renewable energy to date, "his somewhat non-committal stance on phasing out nuclear, and his default endorsement of existing energy sector dynamics."

If Tsai wins the election, Taiwan might develop a more conducive environment for renewable energy investment, given her stated plan to liberalize Taiwan's electricity market, Pollock added. "On a basic level, she promises an alternative to status quo policy conditions," she said. "Despite her lack of a delineated roadmap to achieving most of these goals, her level of reform ambition presents a striking contrast to that of Ma."

But Liao Hui-chu, an economics professor at Tamkang University who studies energy issues, said Tsai's lofty aims could be tempered by the reality of Taiwan's energy-intensive manufacturing sector. He said the island is unlikely to completely shed its reliance on nuclear power and coal, given its baseload needs, though he characterized both Tsai and Ma as supporters of renewable energy.

"No matter how hard it develops renewable energy, Taiwan will still need nuclear power in this decade," Liao said. "While Tsai insists on the phasing out of Taiwan's nuclear industry due to the principles of her party, my observation is that she will yield to the energy reality in Taiwan, since Taiwan's economic development heavily relies on energy use."

Strong PV export sector

Despite the lackluster growth in domestic renewable energy development, Taiwan's export sector remains robust. It is particularly strong in solar manufacturing, maintaining its status as the No. 2 solar cell producer in the world behind China and supplying about 15% of the global market. The total output of Taiwan's photovoltaic industry, currently US$3.2 billion, is expected to reach nearly US$10 billion by 2013, according to the Photonics Industry and Technology Development Association.

Sabrina Kor, a trade consultant with the government- affiliated Taiwan Trade Center in San Francisco, California, said Ma, if re-elected, would continue Taiwan's export-friendly policies to benefit renewable energy manufacturers. She pointed to the recently signed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between Taiwan and China that she said would enable Taiwan to become more attractive for China's photovoltaic manufacturers looking to build facilities on the island.

Domestically, Kor touted the 2009 Renewable Energy Development Act and also highlighted the Ma administration's emphasis on clean-energy projects, including an 8-MW offshore wind demonstration project off the Penghu Islands, as well as development of smart grid technologies and an initiative to integrate business companies in the PV industry to promote more R&D. "President Ma hopes to make Taiwan become the most important green-energy exporting country in the world," Kor said. "In the meantime, Taiwan is gradually increasing domestic markets for renewable energy to build a green society in Taiwan, hoping to reduce the reliance on nuclear energy in the long run."

But Lee Yujung, an associate policy researcher for Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party, said the Ma administration has failed to do enough to promote domestic renewable energy.

Under Tsai's plan to phase out Taiwan's nuclear industry by 2025, Lee said Taiwan would implement energy efficiency measures and increase renewable energy power generation by 1% annually to offset the loss in nuclear generation. More robust subsidies and incentives for renewable energy would be established to spur development, along with energy taxes on fossil fuels, Lee added

"Even though Taiwan is a relatively small market, it can well support manufacturers and energy service providers for their innovation in technology and business models. Therefore, government has to create an environment for the infrastructure to happen for the development of the renewable energy industry," Lee said.

Whatever Ma's and Tsai's policy differences on energy, political observers said the January election is unlikely to hinge on energy policy. Most voters will be more concerned with the candidates' stances on engagement with China -- always the elephant in the room with Taiwan, as well as economic development, experts said.

"It's hard to judge how the candidates' renewable energy policies will affect the election, since most people will likely be swayed more by macro political and economic issues," Yuanta's Li said. Hsu added: "I don't see renewable energy being mentioned in either the presidential election or legislative races."
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Daily Links:

• The awesome Marcus Clinch reviews and summarizes the Casino situation in Taiwan at the moment.
• US mulling new arms sales. One observer noted the other day that Taiwan may have gotten more advanced weapons as a result of Chinese opposition. 
• Lee Teng-hui trial begins Oct 21. What a travesty!
• Aborigines declare a headhunt against the ROC 100 anniversary. Way cool.
• Taipei rejects weird charges it paid $20 million to overthrow the government of Cambodia. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

China Relations in the News

Yvonne Su, a freelancer based in Beijing, flouted all convention for Beijing-based journalists in turning in an article at Asia Times that evinced an excellent and balanced understanding of events out here. Poor Ms. Su, she'll never get hired at a mainstream media outlet producing material like this....

According to China-based diplomats, as part of Beijing's efforts to intervene in Taiwan's presidential election, Chinese officials and academics have been smearing Tsai as irrational by connecting her with former DPP President Chen Shui-bian's confrontational polities. Washington-based analysts have also suggested China's Taiwan affairs officials have privately expressed hope for intervention by the Obama administration to help boost Ma's popularity.

As I've always said, Beijing's goal is to paint Taiwan's pro-Taiwan candidates as "radical" and "provocative." This is one of the clearest statements in the media of that policy, as well as the unspoken tactical alliance against pro-democracy politicians between Beijing and regressive elements in Washington. Su also shows the failure of China's  economic "generosity" and properly contextualizes it, showing that it is an outgrowth of the CCP's desire to annex Taiwan:

Beijing saw the KMT's return to power in 2008 as a crucial chance to promote unification. In 2009 and 2010 alone, Beijing sent 1.7 million Chinese tourists and 13 senior provincial officials on high-profile visits to Taiwan, hoping to help boost the island's lackluster economy. In May 2010, Fujian provincial governor Huang Xiaojing led a 3,000-member delegation to Taiwan, claiming he had procured $24 billion Taiwan dollars (US$783 million) worth of orders from Taiwanese companies, shortly after Shanghai mayor Han Zeng led a delegation that granted $1.8 billion Taiwan dollars in businesses to Taiwan.

But statistics show Taiwan's contributions to China's economy might have been more significant. By the end of August, Taiwan had approved US$163 million investments from China, compared with Taiwan's $107 billion total investment to China, according to Taiwan's Investment Commission. From 2009 to the end of April 2011, the total number of Chinese tourist visiting Taiwan reached 2.2 million, while 11.2 million Taiwanese tourists visited China in the same period of time.

China's rapprochement policies also haven't won much praise from the Taiwanese people, and Beijing has called off high-profile visits by senior officials this year. Some analysts in Beijing acknowledge that China's approach has been too superficial.

It's not often you run into a Beijing-based journalist who has such a good grip on Taiwan. Her piece also shows that CCP analysts in Beijing have a moderate understanding of Taiwan -- they know they have failed to sway Taiwanese -- but a poor understanding of tactics, except at the most basic level of don't screw things up for Ma Ying-jeou. The interesting/scary question is what will Beijing do when it feels it can't come up with policies to bring Taiwan in without a war?

The Taipei Times turned in a report today on the effects of ECFA on the island's agriculture.

While the government is touting the benefits the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) to the agricultural sector, academics doubt the claims are grounded in reality.

The trade deficit with China in the agricultural sector is continuing to grow and more than half of the products on the ECFA’s “early harvest” list did not even total NT$1 million (US$33,000) in export profits, they said.

There were no sales of frozen fresh squid, while sales of bananas could have dropped by as much as 50 percent compared with last year’s sales, they said.

.....

In its promotions for the ECFA, the government said Taiwan’s agricultural exports to China have grown 2.6 times, but according to the Council of Agriculture’s Agricultural Trade Statistics Query System, Taiwan’s exports to China totaled US$428 million, or growth of 28 percent compared with the same period last year.

However, the system also shows that imports totaled US$520 million, or growth of 25 percent from the same period last year, while the trade deficit rose from US$82 million last year to US$92 million, an increase of 12 percent.

Sources said six agricultural items from the early harvest list failed to reach NT$1 million in export value and the total shipment was less than 4 tonnes, with squid not being sold at all.
Less than 1 tonne of lemons and less than 2 tonnes of both honeydew melons and dragon fruit were sold, they said.

The export value and volume of oranges and bananas were only 50 and 20 percent respectively, compared with last year, sources said.

Sources also alleged that an advertisement’s claims that export growth of frozen mackerel pike rose nine times, turtle eggs 23 percent and tea leaves 89 percent were false, saying that exports of frozen mackerel pike last year were 35 percent more than this year, while export volume was also 2.5 times more than this year.

Turtle eggs and tea leaves export volumes were also higher last year, and their export rates were also on a par with this year, sources said.

This was easily predictable. For those of us who actually live and work on the island, the daily struggle to avoid ingesting toxic China products is only growing more difficult, for as the Taipei Times noted:

With trade deficits across the strait on the rise, government efforts to crack down on smuggled Chinese agricultural goods into Taiwan are insufficient, Yang said, adding that the 67 tonnes seized by officials last year was only 1 percent of what was discovered in 2008.

Hahahahaha. Essentially, the government appears to have ceased its anti-smuggling efforts; one way to flood the market with cheap Chinese goods that don't show up in the trade numbers. Of course, this was all very predictable. For example, I wrote more than a year ago on one of those rosy neoliberal fantasies about ECFA that their analysis didn't include all sorts of things, such as....

2. ...any attempt to measure the economic and social effects of smuggling of everything from food to auto parts, which has been disastrous for nations signing FTAs with China. For example, the fact that I have to worry about inferior, poisonous Chinese food items in the local market is a cost I pay, aside from their direct deleterious effects. A cost that Wang and Rosen want everyone to pay, but why should they give a shit? They don't live here, and if it isn't in the model, it doesn't exist.

The cost is real, and measured in declining agricultural incomes, loss of productive fields, and so on. And certainly there must be other industries suffering from smuggling as well.

Yeah, and we still don't have those FTAs ECFA was going to shower us with. Not a single one.

UPDATE: Jens Kastner also publishes on China's theft of Taiwan's agricultural technology:

The mainland Chinese authorities have reportedly established 25 "Taiwan Farmers Pioneer Parks", whose sole purpose it is to steal Taiwanese agricultural know-how. Despite Taiwan's farming industry constituting only 1.5% of gross domestic product, or US$11.8 billion, the cross-strait transfer of farming secrets is considered a threat to the 540,000 Taiwanese employed in the sector.

.....

Seeds and shoots are smuggled, and Taiwanese R&D personnel as well as farmers are headhunted only to end up in one of the Taiwan Farmers Pioneer Parks. There, land is provided, tax incentives and assistance are given, and joint ventures are encouraged. About 70% to 80% of the products to be found in the parks are believed to have systematically been imported from Taiwan.

The problem appears to be -- once again -- the government's lax attitude toward China's hollowing out of Taiwan's industrial and innovation base. Not only did the negotiations over agriculture leave important items unprotected, but Kastner's informants point out that Taiwanese civil servants take Taiwan varieties with them when they change sides. Former Council of Agricultural head Paul Sun is now working as a consultant1 in one of the Chinese innovation theft farms...
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Daily Links, Oct 3, 2011

In town today shopping when a woman bent over in her car to pick up something she'd dropped and veered right into a local vendor. Despite the crowded market and the people mobbing this popular vendor, no one was hurt.

Busy day yesterday, didn't have a chance to post the monday links. Here they are!

BLOG:

• Jerome Keating on how Taiwan is the first Taiwanese democracy.
• PRC threatens to send spies to Taiwan and retaliate against protesting Taiwanese businessmen.
• The Foreigner on the Wolf, the Lamb, and China
• Ben with several new KMT election ads. Hilarious but scary.
• OzSoapBox attacks J Michael Cole for his commentary on expat humility.
• AsiaEye's Under the Radar News.
• Josh with B&W pics.
• The Confucius Peace Prize won by Lien Chan is now going to be cancelled. ROFLMAO.
• Chinese analyst calls for war in the South China Sea from J Michael
• The tea jar magic trick for tea drinkers.

MEDIA:

• Exchange of letters over expat humility in interacting with Taiwanese. I agree with Cole 100%, which is why I haven't commented on this. But it is interesting to see the other opinions.
• BBC spotlight on Taiwan. Aside from the conventional and ignorant BBC hack on Chen Shui-bian, strong work, with more to come in the series.
• Jens argues that the weapons sales to Taiwan will only boost hardliners in Beijing.
• Jens also with an interesting article on ethylene and Taiwan
• HIV rising among Taiwan's young.
• Chinese tourism on Kinmen from Global Post.
• Ma asks again for F-16s. Right.
• Taiwan police bust 800 scammers across Asia, in cooperative move. Yay!
• Economist on Seediq Bale.
• AFP has a rare article on the dark side of KMT history, on the prison on Green Island. Except -- ha! -- it doesn't mention the political party that ran the prison. Thanks, AFP! It's crap like this that keeps us bloggers in business. 
• WSJ on hardliner general criticizing CCP sell outs.

NOT TAIWAN: From the always delightful Mad Minerva, Googlemaps shows where the zombies are.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Arthur Waldron on Taiwan, China, the US, and the future

Waldron wrote the following for:

2011 TNSI International Symposium on the Regional Security of Asia Pacific and Peace in the Taiwan Strait.  Wednesday, September 7, 2011. 9:00 a.m. - 4:30 p.m. Ambassador Hotel Taipei in Taiwan 

It was picked up by a local blogger who apparently typed it up; Waldron sent around this corrected version. I post it here with his permission and my pleasure. To make the font larger just hit CTRL+.

The product of forty years of observation, this letter has some useful and important insights.

++++++++++++++++++

Esteemed colleagues and friends,

I trust this finds you well.  You did me a very great honour by inviting me to your meeting in early September.  Sadly that fell exactly in the first week of classes at Penn so I could not possibly attend, which was a great disappointment.  Then I thought of writing a paper, but I am busy with a book so I finally decided that a more informal letter could nevertheless convey what I feel needs to be said.

Immediate Concerns:

Autocratic China’s ever-increasing entanglement with the free world is my chief source of worry.  We have now reached the point where freedom is being restricted in various places (e.g. in Indonesia, over the Falungong radio station) out of deference to China.  In the West we have “Confucius Institutes” and “Confucius Classrooms” where the tendentious P.R.C. version of Chinese civilization and history is taught.  These in turn endanger real scholars and their independence, as is increasingly clear on campuses where administrations, eager for money, tend to assume that anyone with a Chinese face knows more about that country than any Westerner, no matter how learned.  The leading Chinese-language newspapers in the United States are effectively controlled by China.  We have substantial inserts in English-language newspapers such as the New York Times and Washington Post paid for by Beijing.  Taiwan no longer speaks up robustly for freedom.  With people like Ambassador Chas Freeman and Admiral Owens now tied into the Chinese monetary rewards system, the Chinese government is increasingly influential in internal American decision-making processes.

Now the talk is whether or not to go on supporting Taiwan.  China threatens unspecified “fiscal measures” to punish the United States for Taiwan arms sales, though these are already substantially held up by officials in Washington who are worried lest the façade of normal relations between China and the United States should begin to crack.  For the first time in thirty years, foreign policy commentators have begun to discuss whether friendship with Taiwan is an asset or a liability.

The thirty two years since the U.S. and China established relations have taken their toll on relations with Taiwan.  China may not be in any way genuinely wealthy, but the government has enough money to wield influence.  Furthermore, even as Taiwan studies have emerged as a distinct academic area (good news) the rising generation of Asian specialists is less likely to have visited or studied in Taiwan.  Many know only simplified characters.  The tendency is to assume that one way or another Taiwan will join China rather as Hong Kong did.

Finally we have the lesson of the Ma administration’s attempts to reconcile with China, and in so doing also follow pretty much the path that many in Washington have long wished a Taiwan government to follow.  Remarkable to me is how little concrete Taiwan has gotten out of this.  China is unwilling to make substantive concessions, but seeks rather to manage Taiwan more and more, while continuing her military build up and her attempts to cut Taiwan off from the world community and trade, unless mediated through Beijing.  China has not really reciprocated Ma’s efforts.  Perhaps more significantly, neither has the United States.  I do not suspect his efforts will be crowned with success over arms sales.  Both take him as a useful transitional figure, who will bring the two countries that much closer to merger.  Little sense exists that Taiwan has value in herself, as a democracy and as a strategic ally and that Taiwan’s president should be supported in the interests not least of better cross straits relations.

Nor is there much understanding of how intertwined are Japanese and Taiwanese interests.  Almost any attack on Taiwan would involve violating Japanese territory (in the north and east) while the loss of Taiwan would strip [[Japan] of a crucial buffer and constrict her strategic space.

For now Washington is focused on somehow salvaging a relationship with China, rather than on improving her relations with her proven and democratic friends in Asia.  This is most unwise, but not surprising.  “China” has a deep hold on the American subconscious.

If present trends are simply extrapolated, then, we all have much reason for concern.  That said, the situation is in endless flux and my own belief is that if Taiwan can focus on her own interests, avoid damaging political division, and keep on having elections, then she will survive.  I have often said that I expect in twenty years that an elected president and legislature will still exist in Taiwan, while what shape China will have no one can say.

Changing Medium and Long Term Trends:

Many people today are profoundly impressed by China: not only by her rebuilt cities with their forests of skyscrapers, luxury shops and fashionable restaurants, but also by her developmental model.  I find it astonishing how we are able to carry on routine relations with China even as that country is torturing dissidents and groups such as the Turks and the Tibetans, constraining the press ever more tightly, and still relying on a manipulated exchange rate to underpin her export advantages.  No question exists in my mind that the leadership in Beijing has been surprised by “their” success (more a product of getting out of the way and letting ordinary people get ahead).  This is reflected in their more confident and monitory tone in addressing the world; in the sense that it is time to make some waves, change some rules, acquire some more territory—and to discipline e.g.  the United States and Japan.

The seemingly impressive success is nowhere near so complete as it seems.  Growth and employment even in prosperous areas are increasingly sustained by the use of borrowed money to pay for “investment” that is counted as an increment of GDP.  More than fifty percent of China’s growth rate now has such a source.  Furthermore, much of this investment involves wasted capital.  Economic decisions are not made rationally but rather by fiat influenced by political needs and as I have argued elsewhere (in my lectures at Tokyo University last year) China’s actual production remains wasteful of resources and inefficient.  The artificially cheap currency is what sustains exports.

We know that substantial dissatisfaction exists with the system.  We have now reached the stage where named dissidents and regime critics are known in the outside world.  We know also that hundreds of millions of Chinese continue to live in abject poverty.  We know that demonstrations and riots against the authorities number something like 200,000 per year.  I believe that the present system cannot be sustained indefinitely and will have to change—either through planned reform, or through breakdown and disorder.  Both of these inescapable choices are highly unwelcome to the current ruling class, which is why I continue to maintain that China’s greatest challenges lie in the future.

The Chinese authorities have no plan for dealing e.g. with freeing of speech and establishment of responsible government.  As a Chinese writer put it so aptly after the horrible Wenzhou train crash, we Chinese are all passengers on a high-speed train that is going very fast, on unproven track, toward a destination that has never been specified.  No official in China has ever said where “reform” is intended to take the country.

Furthermore, elite opinion in China is clearly divided.  We saw that in the incident of the Confucius statue in Tiananmen Square.  First it appeared.  That meant that a long planning process had been followed, the statue designed, its placement determined (if it had been originally intended for the Museum, it could have been sent directly), a planning process that almost certainly involved the highest officials in the land.  That means there was a pro-statue faction.  But then the statue was removed.  That means that an anti-statue faction existed or emerged strong enough to reverse an original, carefully deliberated, and long term decision.

We may expect, then, a period of uncertainty and transition in China, with possible social unrest, political factionalism, and so forth, even including violence.  My fear is that Japan, Taiwan, and other countries will become so closely tied to China that they will be destabilized too when China is, rather than being buffered.

This period of transition will have effects around the world and across Asia.  These will be major but at present imponderable.  Few governments—certainly not that of the United States—have considered how they will react when the present shaky equilibrium gives way.  We still treat China as a monolith and put all too much credence in what the current leadership says, while ignoring obvious trends.  One of these days Washington will receive conflicting messages from different factions in Beijing.  No one, I think, has any idea what we will do.  Taiwan’s government, too, tends in my opinion to expect China to continue more or less as she is now, indefinitely.  What will Taipei do when like Washington they face conflicting demands and suggestions from China? All of this will lead to substantial disorder in Asia and the world.

In Tokyo and Taipei skyscrapers are designed to survive major earthquakes.  The policies of Taiwan and Japan should similarly be designed to survive whatever ripples of instability propagate out from China in the years ahead.

Recent Developments:

Last year I spoke of the “new conditions” existing in Asia as the result of a fundamental shift in Chinese policy to external activity, policing, enforcing claims, and so forth.  This year, I think, the existence of those “new conditions” will begin to be accepted by Washington—and I hope by the Taiwan government—no doubt unwillingly.  How the recognition that China has qualitatively changed her approach will affect Taipei and Washington is the single most important question to be followed in the years ahead.

For forty years American policy has been based on a conviction that when all was said and done China and the United States would be friends.  The only problem separating them, as China repeatedly insisted, was Taiwan—and a belief that this was the case led many policy-makers to marginalize Taiwan in the interests, as they imagined, of the China relationship.

Since the arrival of the Ma administration, Taipei has cooperated more closely with both Beijing and Washington than any previous Taiwan government.  The Ma assumptions have been effectively those of the United States: That China was fundamentally a status quo power destined for a “responsible stakeholder”[1] role in Asia, which meant that cross strait relations could be opened up and the military downgraded without any actual threat to Taiwan’s security and democracy.

Now in a little over twelve months all of that has changed and the so-called “Washington Consensus” is shambles.  From our point of view, the question is how long it will take Washington and Taipei to recognize this fact, for the roots of this policy are deep and go back very far.  Some quite literally can imagine no other.

No longer is Taiwan the only issue.  Instead the entire 648,000 square miles of the South China Sea have been claimed by China as a sovereign “core interest.” China has once again begun to interfere with American operations in international water and air space.  Already relentless pressure against Japan has been increased.  Vietnam is alarmed.  Even the Philippines, who without thinking broke their alliance with the United States decades ago, are now scrambling to defend themselves as China claims their offshore islands.  India is concerned about many things including the clear pattern of Chinese base building around her and the permission China has obtained for seabed exploration in the Indian Ocean.  Whether the United States, and China’s neighbours, and Taiwan like it or not, these actions represent a clear long term shift in China’s policies.

This change is already having effects.  Joseph Nye (b.  1937) published an article earlier this year in which, while acknowledging that China’s new policy was beginning to create a countervailing coalition against her, he nevertheless counseled continuing openness, trade, and engagement.[2] As a friend noted to me, the article effectively asserts that enmity between the United States and China is impossible: that she will be our friend whether she likes it or not.  This is not a tenable position.  If China wants to make trouble, she will and we cannot stop her.

At about the same time Henry Kissinger (b. 1923) published, On China, a book that, as I pointed out in a review in the Weekly Standard,[3] is permeated by a deep pessimism about the possibility of Chinese-American friendship absent the common enemy of the Soviet Union, indeed apprehensive about conflict.  This is remarkable coming from the pen of a man whose greatest achievement was the Chinese-American rapprochement of the 1970s, and who is personally very sympathetic to the P.R.C., which, among other things, has made him rich.

Kissinger’s pessimism, however, is supported by China’s rush to develop access denial strategies against United States forces and “assassin's mace” weapons to cripple U.S.  capabilities.  These developments, feeding into the consciousness of the United States governing establishment, will inescapably lead to changes in American policy.

Nor has any diminution been discernible in the ongoing Chinese build up against Taiwan.  I often reflect what a boost Ma would have received if China had pulled back her missiles upon his election (militarily not a very meaningful gesture, though it would increase warning time).  But China is incapable of making any gesture that actually reduces her coercive power; only symbolism and talk are acceptable.  Now, as Ma’s election chances look increasingly uncertain, rumours are that China is seeking to persuade the United States to offer visa-free access to Taiwan nationals, in order to help Taiwan’s president.  The big gestures she could make are never carried out, because her long-term policy is to make small gestures to keep Taiwanese happy, while undermining the country’s security position, by cutting off arms supplies from America and excluding her from trade.

Many in Taiwan see this as a “pro-blue” policy by China but it is not.  Their goal is to have their Chinese run Taiwan, as they do Hong Kong.  The blues are simply seen as the more useful interlocuters for now, to be discarded in favour of fully pro-China personnel when the situation makes it possible.  China has little use for a Ma, or a Lien Chan, or a James Soong, except as transitional figures, to be used and then discarded when the time comes.

As I see it, the greatest geopolitical danger right now to Taiwan is that she will be drawn into some sort of “cooperative” policy on behalf of the abstract “China” to claim the South China Sea and other disputed territories for the People’s Republic.  In her interests Taiwan is in fact no different from Japan or Korea or the ASEAN countries—she should not wish Chinese influence over her to increase.  But Chinese nationalism, and a self-deceiving belief that the P.R.C. will somehow recognize Taiwanese—especially those born in China or having Chinese parents—as somehow equal—are an intoxicating brew.  In fact China does not share any sort of power or recognition of status and rights with her own people, so how could one reasonably expect her to extend such recognition to people who are in some sense their adversaries?

My sense is that the tide of Chinese assertion and confrontational policy is now running faster than the attempts at self-deception in Taipei and Washington. What this means is that, perhaps in the course of the coming year, both capitals will begin to recognize the change in China’s policy and the need to react to it.  This has still not happened in the United States, where we pursue, like ardent suitors, meaningless military to military contacts with China, giving up real interests to get them.  Washington theorists are still full of ideas about U.S. Chinese cooperation.  Indeed, this is the first year in decades that serious talk has begun about Taiwan as an obstacle, an unwanted friend that should be discarded.  Worrying as I find such talk, I believe it will be overwhelmed fairly soon by the reality of e.g.  ever more tense Japanese-Chinese, Indian-Chinese, Vietnamese-Chinese, Philippine-Chinese, including American-Chinese relations.

To sum up, the international context of China-Taiwan relations is rapidly changing.  The question that follows is, what should Taiwan do?

How Should Taiwan Navigate?

Realistically I see no chance that Taiwan will be able to win, in the short run, over the increasing tendency to state that she is part of China—after all, a version of that view is espoused by her own government.  Nor do I think that the current flag of convenience, the Republic of China, can or should be changed abruptly.  My reasoning is as follows.  Every day that Taiwan remains in fact independent of China—and the elapsed time is now approaching seventy years—seems to me to increase the possibility that Taiwan will eventually emerge free.  The challenge is not to increase that international freedom now—the world situation will permit only small, symbolic moves—but rather to ensure that it is not compromised by unwise statements or actions by the current government.

I would urge strong action in two areas.  The first is in the redirection of international focus to the fact that Taiwan is a democracy and the only one in the world of huaren.  This is an enormous achievement, and although it is threatened every day by arbitrary government actions, such as the selective prosecution of some figures while the deeply corrupt Kuomintang escapes scrutiny, I believe it will be maintained.  Too many people see Taiwan only in a geopolitical way.  They have to see what has happened in Taiwan as part and parcel of the century old transformation that has made so much of the world democratic—and left China an outlier.  Taiwan must not be afraid to condemn human rights abuses in China, to provide support to democrats and dissidents, to speak out confidently in favour of a free system.  No delicacy must be entertained about “not hurting China’s feelings.”

Second, Taiwan must continue to prepare to defend its sovereignty without American help.  I believe that the U.S.  will not abandon its Asian alliance system, with Japan as the keystone, and of which Taiwan is in effect a part.  But support for that system in the United States is being undermined by rivers of Chinese money and the emergence of a generation of China specialists who do not know Taiwan, as my generation did, having been trained entirely in China.  This means that Taiwan must push ahead with her indigenous systems, her development of a non-nuclear decisive weapon and delivery system, and so forth.  The military budget must increase if this is to be achieved.

To these two major concerns I would add the need constantly to diversify trading partners, particularly in the Asia of which Taiwan is a part, and to eliminate needless obstacles to good relations with the United States (beef, for example).

I would stress in particular the paramount importance of relations with Japan.  On these the Ma administration has spoken in contradictory ways.  We must recognize that the Okinawa area and the islands to the south, with Yonaguni only sixty miles from Taiwan, are critical to the security of both countries, even as they are increasingly challenged by China.  Every level of cooperation with Japan, including joint security consultations and intelligence sharing, must be widened and deepened.  The more closely Taiwan is involved in Japan’s security, the closer she is to the United States, for I do not expect any change in the words of the Tokyo-Washington alliance.

With the United States, as I suggested last year, intelligence cooperation is Taiwan’s strongest card. It must be played carefully, but in fact what the U.S.  learns through working with Taiwan is essential to both countries and cannot be replaced, easily or at all.

The Immediate Political Future:

How to explain all of this in the coming electoral campaigns is a great challenge.  The current opposition must appear to be reasonable and capable and competent.  One can stress the desirability of good relations with China without accepting a “one China framework”—whatever that means—but self-possession, sweet reason, and openness are the traits to stress.

Many Americans still view the Kuomintang as the “natural party of rule” in Taiwan.  The opposition must so position itself that it will be seen, both by Taiwanese voters and by the U.S.  as a plausible and entirely trustworthy alternate party of government.  Satisfying theatrical gestures, if they are to prove unsuccessful or counterproductive, must be avoided.  Confidence in the judgment and competence of the opposition is the chief requirement.  This requires, at least for the U.S., what my late grandmother called the “ice cream treatment”—sweet and cool.

Taiwan is no more divided politically than is the United States.  But because Taiwan is not an acknowledged legitimate member of the international community, division is far more dangerous.  That is because rather than occurring within an agreed national constitutional framework, debate is rather about what that constitutional structure and international status should be.  Such an argument is like a game played on a field without foul lines and goals.  It is a game about what those lines and goals should be.  As such it can be extremely volatile.

I would urge the opposition to stress the need for prudence in dealing with China, as well as focusing on the bread and butter domestic issues that are likely to be the key to the election.  I know a certain amount about China and Taiwan internationally, but would not presume to say much about Taiwan’s domestic affairs.  The goal should be to build stronger and stronger democratic political and fair legal institutions.

Remember that by late winter and early spring of next year the regional situation may well be in flux.  China is over-extending herself and provoking hostility from states that long sough to be her friends.  I am not sure that everyone in China supports this policy—it comes in waves (such as the ramming of the Japanese coast guard vessels) followed by troughs during which little happens and diplomatic mending is attempted.  This dangerous foreign policy is furthermore matched by a policy of repression at home that threatens to make China herself increasingly unmanageable.

In other words, medium and long term trends favour Taiwan, even if short term setbacks are regular.  No one can upend Taiwan’s democracy except internal players in Taiwan.  In this election I hope that stress will be laid on what a substantial and solid achievement this democracy is, and on the need to defend it.  It can be defended, and Taiwan can prosper into the future, provided her government keeps a steady course and focuses on national interests.  No arrangement with China will be worth the paper it is written on, as China herself is headed for change, and effort should not be wasted seeking one.

In closing may I express my deep admiration for the responsible and patriotic work that all of you do.  I wish very much that I could be with you—nothing energizes me more than a visit to Taiwan, which has changed so much and so positively since my student days forty years ago.  I wish you the very best of luck.  If I can be of any use in any way, do not hesitate to be in contact.

With my deep and sincere good wishes to all.

Sincerely yours,
Arthur Waldron
Lauder Professor of International Relations
University of Pennsylvania

[1] http://transpacifica.net/2007/05/29/zoellick-on-china-the-washington-consensus/
[2] http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nye96/English
[3] http://www.weeklystandard.com/author/arthur-waldron
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Ominous Economic Indicators

Unpaid leave reintroduced at science parks in Hsinchu and Taichung as housing sales fall....

H&B Realty Co (住商不動產), the nation’s largest real-estate broker by number of franchises, reported a 5 percent fall in housing transactions last month, with the Greater Taipei area accounting for most of that, the broker said in a statement.

“More and more people share the view that cash is king after the global bourses tumbled last month,” Hsu said. “The strengthening US dollar is luring global capital away from emerging markets, including Taiwan, leaving real -estate assets less attractive.”

Hsu, who had previously expected the housing market to bounce back this quarter, now holds a neutral view.

The return of unpaid leave at science-based parks in Hsinchu and Taichung is also likely to weaken home sales in those areas, where transactions have so far been less affected by the introduction of a luxury tax in June because of their relative affordability, Hsu said.

Taiwan stocks post worst quarterly fall since the fourth quarter of 2008:

Taiwan stocks rose 0.6 percent on Friday, but ended the quarter 16.5 percent lower than the previous quarter, the biggest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2008.

....

Stocks had fallen 3.2 percent in the first quarter and 0.35 percent in the second and stand down 19.5 percent for 2011 to date. In 2010 the index had risen 9.6 percent.

Further slowdown news.....the central bank refused to raise interest rates for the first time in five quarters....

Taiwan’s central bank refrained from raising interest rates, ending five straight quarters of increases as Asia’s policy makers seek to protect their economies from a faltering global recovery.

........

Central banks from New Zealand to South Korea refrained from raising benchmark rates this month as Europe’s debt crisis and a struggling U.S. economy dimmed the outlook for the region’s exporters. A decline in Taipei home prices from a record earlier this year and slowing export-order growth have eased inflation pressures, weakening the case for further monetary tightening.

Raising interest rates makes money more expensive, meaning that people borrow less and growth slows. Keeping them stable means that credit did not tighten, implying that the central bank feared this round of growth was fragile.

A slow economy could be good news for the DPP at the January polls. But it is certainly bad news for all the people who have to suffer. With China looking to slow (at Counterpunch Mike Whitney argues things are grimmer than they look), the Eurozone a disaster area, and US elites clearly preferring to burn the Middle East than making the US grow, Taiwan could be in for a rough ride.

UPDATED: As Michael K points out below, the falling currency will be good for exports (but MJ, it will also be inflationary).
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Kenting Once Again

This weekend I went down to Kenting yet again for riding with a friend visiting from Shanghai. It's the seventh time I've visited the peninsula this year and I am scheduled for one more trip there in November! Nevertheless, though the trip was cut short by the typhoon, it was still lotsa fun.

I was supposed to ride with my friend Paul and his friend George, whom I had never met. But Paul got sick, so leaving him to suffer at the Kenting Training hostel in Hengchun (highly recommended, $1200 for a double, $1600 for a four-person room, clean and comfy), George and I headed out. As you can see, George is totally old school, with a tough old steel bike and leather shoes custom made here 30 years ago.

The day started with lovely blue skies but quickly deteriorated.

Stopping at the village just before 199 and 199A split, we ran into a funeral. Here a musician strides past.

There I made friends with an Indonesian maid who was working up there and had been in Taiwan a year. All over the back roads of Taiwan you meet such people.

Some serious customers in the mountains.

When we got down to the ocean after the wonderful descent on 199A -- George was a monster going downhill, as befits the former fighter pilot and cycle racer that he was -- things started to get a bit grim. The gray skies and booming surf completely transformed the coast into a desolation of stirring beauty.

It was end-of-the-world empty that day. The wind was fearsome and the waves pounded. Like riding through The Road

We ducked inside the restaurant at Gangtzai as the skies opened and stripped off all our soaking clothes except our biking shorts. The owner was kind enough to run them through the rinse machine for us, so when the rain cleared our clothes were almost dry. Outside it poured and poured. The highlight of the trip occurred just before this: as we entered the port, a small troop of wild deer crossed the road in front of us. Wonderful.

Another awe-inspiring moment occurred as we climbed 200, just short of Fenshuiling. I spotted a giant wolf spider running across the road. Realizing that the only reason a spider runs like that is because it's the prey, I stopped and dug for my camera. I missed the moment when the wasp stung it. In this photo the spider has already been paralyzed and the wasp is now crawling over its body looking for leverage to move it. This link will take you to video of the moment right after the spider has been stung but before it stops moving, while this link has video of the wasp dragging the spider across the road. Awesome.

Here's how she got around the problem of the irregular, rock-covered surface by the edge of the road: she dangled the wasp over the edge and then walked sideways along the edge of the ditch.

After that we rocketed downhill through Manjhou township, just cleansed by the rain.

Manjhou was as green as could be.

Great views in this lovely stretch of downhill.

Water buffalo of the Serengeti.

George powers home.

Hengchun at night wasn't exactly hoppin', but this girl was doing her best to energize the town.

By nightfall we linked up with Paul. Since the ability to consume beer is the minimal indicator of good health, it is clear that Paul had recovered robustly. A great time despite the untimely intervention of the typhoon.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

What street is this?

My friend Patrick Cowsill found this. Any idea what street this is?
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.