Bloomberg Businessweek:About 32,000 people joined the rally since the protest began on the streets of Taipei at 3 p.m. local time, Wu Ching- tien, deputy chief of Taipei’s Zhongzheng First Police District said by phone today. Crowds were peacefully dismissed by 7 p.m., Wu said. The opposition had aimed to gather 100,000 people.
32,000? I was curious to see what lowball figure the police would come up with.
Taiwan News:
The government mobilized Cabinet members to promote the planned Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with China Sunday despite a massive protest rallying tens of thousands the previous day.
Taiwan and China are scheduled to sign the agreement in Chongqing on Tuesday, though marches and rallies in Taipei Saturday emphasized the demand for a referendum on the issue.
An estimated 150,000 people braved pouring rain to voice their opposition, said Tsai Chi-chang, a spokesman for the Democratic Progressive Party, which organized the protest.
LA Times
Known as the economic cooperation framework agreement, the pact is to be signed Tuesday in the Chinese city of Chongqing. The deal will immediately reduce or eliminate tariffs on about 800 types of exports — more than 500 of which are from Taiwan, and only about 250 from China.
The deal will also allow both sides greater access to each other's markets. Taiwan's banks, for instance, will be able to set up branches in China and do yuan business. China also agreed to allow an unlimited number of Taiwanese films to be shown as long as they pass the scrutiny of censors, Taiwanese officials said.
Taiwan's government has insisted that the deal is important for the export-dependent island's economic survival. Despite decades of animosity, the similar language and culture between the two sides have helped make China Taiwan's biggest trade partner and export market. Trade between the two sides reached $80 billion in 2009; it was at $100 billion before the economic downturn.
Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou says the deal is about economics, not politics, and that Taiwan's democracy can fend off undue pressure from Beijing.
We are of course aware of the political ambitions of mainland China toward us during this period, but we cannot let this make us afraid, pull back or avoid trying to move forward," Ma said during a recent televised debate on the trade deal. "We have confidence in Taiwan, in Taiwan businesses and in Taiwan's democracy."
BBC:
For China's leaders, though, this probably is more about politics than economics.
They hope this deal will help them to win hearts and minds in Taiwan.
That is important if they are ever to achieve their goal of bringing the island back under the control of Beijing.
AFP:
Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Taipei on Saturday as Taiwan prepares to seal a major trade deal with Beijing that opponents fear is a step towards Chinese control.
"Oppose ECFA!", "Save Taiwan!", protesters shouted at the march in downtown Taipei organised by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Even AFP used the formulation "tens of thousands." Obviously more than 32,000 were there.
AP:
The agreement is the jewel in the crown of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's policy of seeking closer economic ties to ease tension across the Taiwan Strait, a flash point since the two sides split amid civil war in 1949.
But closer political and economic ties could also serve China's long-term goal of returning the self-ruled island to its control, the fundamental aim of its Taiwan policy.
Finally! A number of media outlets are openly acknowledging that the purpose of ECFA is to drag Taiwan into China's orbit, and not attributing that to the opposition as a mere claim. Thanks, guys. Now isn't it time to deal with the ridiculous "split in 1949" formula?
J Michael's account of his experience at the protest.
____________
Daily Links:
- Way cool: Couchsurfing
- Jon Adams with another score in Global Post on China and the islands in the South China Sea.
- AFP goes there, says DPP is "anti-Chinese."
- Nanshan Deal hits another roadblock as Chinatrust allows MOU to expire. Lots of interesting stuff happening with this deal...
- Burma buys 50 Chinese fighter jets
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!
28 comments:
There's a dozen things that could be written against it, but I won't get into them. Suffice it to say that years from now, June 29, 2010 will be remembered as the day that Taiwan decided to seize short-term gratification at the cost of huge harm in the long run - and paid dearly for it.
BBC lied through their teeth:
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[...] bringing the island back under the control of Beijing.
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... as if Beijing ever controlled Taiwan.
As for Bloomberg Businessweek, I thought Taipei Police didn't give out protest numbers anymore.
Tim Maddog
I was there and 32 000 is a helluva lot closer to the correct number than the 150 000 Taiwan News said. It didn't even come close to 100 000.
32,000 is about half of who were there, but 150,000 is ridiculous. I wish the pan-Greens would stop exaggerating, it gives the lowball police figures credibility, and makes them look bad.
Also, as maddog notes, there is no official figure, the cops get it by calling the local police station, which has no authority to give it out.
Regardless if it's 35,000 or 150,000 it is never enough.
The apathy among university students reminds me of the 8 years of the Bush administration and the deafening silence on American college campuses.
To hell with the DPP and/or any other political party, where are the voices of the students that face a future of possibly saluting a CCP flag.
I actually went to the protests myself. There are a lot of people, but indeed not a lot of young people (there are some, but comparing to the other middle age and old people, they are the absolute minority). I have 3 thoughts regarding this:
1. I think there are some students (or young people) that sense the danger, but they don't express them outside or in protest. This is in Taipei city afterall, where more pan green supporters choose to be silent in workplace or in school. They are more likely to express their opinion on the internet.
2. To get these young people to join, you have to create a group (or network) effect. I feel that young people are less likely to join on their own. You have to create a group or club in which these young people can both agree and identify with. Then they are more likely to join the protest in these groups. This is especially true in Taiwan IMO.
3. Some young people might not like the atmosphere of protest itself perhaps, even though they support DPP's cause. Therefore, don't get discourage by them not showing, because they could contribute in other ways.
George Orwell writing in 1940:
"The English can probably not be bullied into surrender, but they might quite easily be bored, cajoled or cheated into it, provided that, as at Munich, they did not know that they were surrendering. It could happen most easily when the war seemed to be going well rather than badly."
Something to bear in mind when we see Vincent Siew touch down from Chongqing later this week with a scrap of paper in his hand and a shit-eating grin on his face
I'm sure there are many of you who come into contact day to day with more students and/or young adults than I.
But from the times I've had discussions with 20 and 30 somethings, I've walked away a bit discouraged and amazed at how little they know about what is going on in their own government. I guess the same can be said most everywhere but few places have as much at stake.
If there isn't a cctv tape of a purse snatcher, motorcycle thief, or some other entertaining and dramatic event on the TV news, they don't seem to be interested.
I recently asked a lady (university grad) around 43 what she thought of the meetings and she said, "I haven't followed this very much". She wasn't adverse to talking about it, she's just been too busy to take time to ponder it. I mean really.
While I suspect there will always be sheep in every society, the collective apathy that I seem to feel from the population in general here and the lack of student involvement, whose careers and livelihoods are potentially on the line, NOT to mention a small thing like their freedom is puzzling.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease always. Something must spark their interest to cause them to raise their concern.
I'm trying to rattle cages at the BBC about their complete lack of understanding of Taiwanese history.
Also, I took pictures and posted them on Demotix:
http://www.demotix.com/news/367577/rally-against-efca-taipei
If I were the DPP, I'd be worried. Not so much about ECFA, but the lack of support for the protests against it. The first talked about getting a million people to the protest, then after the dramatically lower than expected turnout to the sit-in and the Kaohsiung event, they dropped the expected number to 200 000 and then 100 000. And they ended up with less than that.
Taiwanese citizens may not like ECFA, but unless the DPP can offer a workable and realistic alternative, which they haven't so far, instead of simply being opposed to it, they'll be missing a golden opportunity to take back power. Which, at the end of the day is what it's all about.
I'm sure there are many of you who come into contact day to day with more students and/or young adults than I.
But from the times I've had discussions with 20 and 30 somethings, I've walked away a bit discouraged and amazed at how little they know about what is going on in their own government. I guess the same can be said most everywhere but few places have as much at stake.
If there isn't a cctv tape of a purse snatcher, motorcycle thief, or some other entertaining and dramatic event on the TV news, they don't seem to be interested.
I recently asked a lady (university grad) around 43 what she thought of the meetings and she said, "I haven't followed this very much". She wasn't adverse to talking about it, she's just been too busy to take time to ponder it. I mean really.
While I suspect there will always be sheep in every society, the collective apathy that I seem to feel from the population in general here and the lack of student involvement, whose careers and livelihoods are potentially on the line, NOT to mention a small thing like their freedom is puzzling.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease always. Something must spark their interest to cause them to raise their concern.
Apathetic? I don't think so. The level of political engagement in Taiwan is actually remarkably high. Polls indicate that 40% of Taiwanese watched the ECFA debate. This maybe an overestimate, but still an amazing amount of people who gave up their Sunday afternoon to watch a TV debate about an economic cooperation deal.
What the greens have a hard time admitting is that the opposition to ECFA is just not very strong. The polls indicate support in the high 40s and opposition only in the mid-30s. Many people have thought about ECFA, and on balance concluded that it is in Taiwan's interests to sign.
What the greens have a hard time admitting is that the opposition to ECFA is just not very strong. The polls indicate support in the high 40s and opposition only in the mid-30s. Many people have thought about ECFA, and on balance concluded that it is in Taiwan's interests to sign.
With far more truth, you could write:
What the pro-China crowd has a hard time admitting is that the support for ECFA is just not very strong. The polls indicate support in the 40s or high 30s and opposition in the mid-30s, with don't-knows in the 30s as well. The majority of people have thought about ECFA, and on balance concluded that it is either not Taiwan's interests to sign, or that they don't have the information they need.
The reality is that the polling on ECFA is just awful, with questions poorly framed and severely lacking in detail.
Michael
With far more truth, you could write:
What the pro-China crowd has a hard time admitting is that the support for ECFA is just not very strong. The polls indicate support in the 40s or high 30s and opposition in the mid-30s, with don't-knows in the 30s as well. The majority of people have thought about ECFA, and on balance concluded that it is either not Taiwan's interests to sign, or that they don't have the information they need.
The reality is that the polling on ECFA is just awful, with questions poorly framed and severely lacking in detail.
Well that is definitely a green spin on matters.
The most recent Global Views opinion poll has 46.2% in favour and 35.9% against. The question is simple and unbiased: "Should the government sign ECFA with the mainland?" The lead is a quite resounding 11 percentage points
(Global Views might lean blue but their polls are fairly reliable, in 2008 they overestimated Ma's support only by around 2%.).
As for the "don't knows", there is plenty of information available on ECFA. There has been a television debate. What more information do they require?
I would say that lack of information is not the problem. People still understandably have doubts, but when pressed many of them will swing in support. They certainly can't be classed as opponents as this blog likes to do.
Whichever way you look at it opposition to ECFA is weak and the turnout at DPP rallies has been very low. Tsai has not effectively made the case against ECFA or put forward any viable alternatives.
I don't know what information the don't knows require. My experience is that a large chunk of don't knows are closeted Greens. It doesn't really matter. The KMT wants the sell out, as does China, so the wishes of the people are really irrelevant.
Have the DPP put forth a realistic, workable alternative? Something that other nations would accept even if China didn't? If so, what is it?
(Serious answers please).
I don't know what information the don't knows require. My experience is that a large chunk of don't knows are closeted Greens. It doesn't really matter. The KMT wants the sell out, as does China, so the wishes of the people are really irrelevant.
No you are wrong. Taiwan is a democracy. If the KMT doesn't have power it cannot sign any agreements with China. Ma was elected on a clear platform of concluding a deal on economic cooperation in action. Where is the "sell out"?
I also doubt that most of the "don't knows" are "closet greens". They are probably more light blues in this group. Compare Hsieh's 41% in 2008 and 35% opposition to ECFA, with Ma's 58% and 46% support for ECFA.
Anyway whichever way you look at it, the supporters of ECFA have a substantial lead.
Anonymous 5:42 PM spun:
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The most recent Global Views opinion poll has 46.2% in favour and 35.9% against.
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Got link? No, wait! I do. Michael wrote about that back on March 23, 2010 -- over three months ago -- quoting the loaded question used in that poll:
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"if there are overall benefits for Taiwan then the government should sign it"
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Got spin?
Here is what I would be more likely to call "the most recent Global Views poll": one from May 31, 2010 [translation mine]:
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公投題目「是否同意政府與中國簽ECFA？」：同意42% v.s.不同意44%
On a referendum which asks: "Should the government sign an ECFA with China?" 42% would say "Yes" while 44% would say "No."
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Is that somehow a "green spin on matters"?
BTW, both Apple Daily and Liberty Times put the attendance of Saturday's rally at 150,000, and while I can't be sure what the actual figure was, Apple Daily isn't going to put a "green spin on matters," that's for sure. (Click the links for screenshots of the articles in question.)
Tim Maddog
Turton's assistant spinner spun:
Got link? No, wait! I do. Michael wrote about that back on March 23, 2010 -- over three months ago -- quoting the loaded question used in that poll:
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"if there are overall benefits for Taiwan then the government should sign it"
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Yes, I have a link.
http://www.gvm.com.tw/gvsrc/201003_GVSRC_others.pdf
The question that asks "if there are overall benefits for Taiwan then the government should sign ECFA" gives a higher level of support (51%). However, I agree that it is a loaded question so I did not quote it.
Got spin?
Here is what I would be more likely to call "the most recent Global Views poll": one from May 31, 2010 [translation mine]:
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公投題目「是否同意政府與中國簽ECFA？」：同意 42% v.s.不同意44%
On a referendum which asks: "Should the government sign an ECFA with China?" 42% would say "Yes" while 44% would say "No."
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Is that somehow a "green spin on matters"?
That is a TVBS poll. They are notoriously unreliable. According to another TVBS poll from that link, 41% say they support signing ECFA and 34% say they are opposed. However, when it comes to people who say they would vote in a referendum, the opposition has a 2 point lead. I guess this has to be explained by the fact that the opponents to ECFA are better mobilized. Still, the vast majority of polls show support for ECFA. You are simply cherry picking the one poll that shows a slight lead for the opposition.
BTW, both Apple Daily and Liberty Times put the attendance of Saturday's rally at 150,000, and while I can't be sure what the actual figure was, Apple Daily isn't going to put a "green spin on matters," that's for sure. (Click the links for screenshots of the articles in question.)
I doubt there were 150,000 there. The Apple Daily likes to exaggerate everything. Even if there were 150,000, that would still be a pretty weak turnout given that the green supporters are telling us that this is a huge "sell out" to China.
That is a TVBS poll. They are notoriously unreliable. According to another TVBS poll from that link, 41% say they support signing ECFA and 34% say they are opposed. However, when it comes to people who say they would vote in a referendum, the opposition has a 2 point lead. I guess this has to be explained by the fact that the opponents to ECFA are better mobilized. Still, the vast majority of polls show support for ECFA.
Arty you are pure comedy Gold. TVBS is a Chinese owned station that consistently underestimates the Green support. So you are right, they are unreliable, but not in the direction you need.
Michael
"But from the times I've had discussions with 20 and 30 somethings, I've walked away a bit discouraged and amazed at how little they know about what is going on in their own government."
Perhaps ignoring the news is the only way they can maintain their mental health given how quicklty their government is betraying them and how little they can do about it.
I find I do that with Obama in charge, and he's just impoverishing my children, not actually selling them into foreign slavery.
Anonymous 11:20 AM got only one thing right:
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That is a TVBS poll.
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Right -- it wasn't Global Views. That's my mistake. However, everything else you say seems to be purposely dishonest.
For example:
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However, I agree that it is a loaded question so I did not quote it.
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You didn't quote the question, but you did quote the answer (as if the question had merely asked "ECFA: Yes or no?") in an attempt at blue spin. How much more dishonest can you get?
Tim Maddog
@ "On a referendum which asks: "Should the government sign an ECFA with China?" 42% would say "Yes" while 44% would say "No.""
Just to clarify, the fine print in the poll question specifies that this is among people who would go to vote at a referendum (在會去投公投的民眾中), not the population as a whole. Kind of makes that 42% stand out. Not to say that they're right, of course.
But three cheers for the idea of some legitimate polling in Taiwan, with clear questions, neutral financing and neutral analysis. Actually, I guess Taiwan could just use a real newspaper or t.v. news station.
To Curious,
Solution 1: Simple, don't sign any shit. The current situation works fine for Taiwan. Taiwan's economic problem is not about free trade. Japan does not have FTA with the US still the trade valume between them is huge. There is no rule that says you have to sign FTA to have trade and prosper.
Solution 2: Sign stuffs that is not called FTA with others under WTO platform. For example, with the US, the problem preventing a FTA is not so much about China, but about the trade issue existing between Taiwan and the US. The deal might or might not work out however because the US has its own interests and Taiwan has its own interests, just like in any negotiation. The point is to seek out countries and sign pacts that can benefit both side.
Also something worth to note on is whether Japan and the US will now actually put more restriction on the high tech export to Taiwan because Taiwan is moving closer to China. Japan and the US still guard China carefully and protect their own intellectual properties and natural resources from Chinese firms frequently. Now that Taiwan is moving closer to China with ECFA, I wonder if Taiwan would loss some potential future partnership with Japan and the US. If that is the case then Taiwan is really screwed.
For example:
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However, I agree that it is a loaded question so I did not quote it.
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You didn't quote the question, but you did quote the answer (as if the question had merely asked "ECFA: Yes or no?") in an attempt at blue spin. How much more dishonest can you get?
Maddog, I did not quote that poll. Please carefully read the link again.
http://www.gvm.com.tw/gvsrc/201003_GVSRC_others.pdf
You will note there are two polls. One that asks if the the respondents support the signing of ECFA or not (which gives support at 46.2%) and another which asks if the government should sign ECFA if it is in Taiwan's overall interest (which gives the higher figure of 51.1%).
Now go back and carefully read my posts. You will notice I only quoted the former poll. This is the relevant passage:
The most recent Global Views opinion poll has 46.2% in favour and 35.9% against. The question is simple and unbiased: "Should the government sign ECFA with the mainland?" The lead is a quite resounding 11 percentage points
(Global Views might lean blue but their polls are fairly reliable, in 2008 they overestimated Ma's support only by around 2%.).
Arty you are pure comedy Gold. TVBS is a Chinese owned station that consistently underestimates the Green support. So you are right, they are unreliable, but not in the direction you need.
LOL, you think the anon is me? I thought you can see people's IP. I hate anon post, unlike people trying to post anon even in his own blog.
Considering you don't post my post, I don't know what are you thinking? Got your Ph.D. yet? The person who is debating with you guys is not me. I give up already. Heck, your well being is least of my concern. :P You paid the price of your action. Taiwan is not going to be doomed by a "Chinese." History is full of irony, my bet is a "Taiwanese" president eventually sold out Taiwan (maybe Chen's son at this rate lol).
Tim Maddog said
BTW, both Apple Daily and Liberty Times put the attendance of Saturday's rally at 150,000, and while I can't be sure what the actual figure was, Apple Daily isn't going to put a "green spin on matters," that's for sure. (Click the links for screenshots of the articles in question.)
Dude, if you had have come out from behind your computer and actually gone to it, you'd know full well that they'd didn't get close to 150 000. 50000 would be closer to the mark.
@Jason -- Dude, I was there, but I didn't get around enough to get a good personal estimate of the crowd size. Check out some photos I took just as the rain began but before the bulk of the crowd arrived at Ketagalan Blvd.:
* Su Beng 1
* Su Beng 2
* Media covering the 626 protest
* Protesters in the rain
* Surveilling the protesters from atop the MOFA building
Tim Maddog
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