AEI Scholars on Taiwan/China, TIME on Ma

Dan Blumenthal and Chris Griffin of American Enterprise Institute reflect on Taiwan through the lens of Georgia in the Weekly Standard:

For years China has been selling the argument that Taiwan is a provocateur. Beijing argued throughout the administration of independence-leaning Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian that "separatists" in Taipei had hijacked Chinese "compatriots" on the island who really want unification with the Chinese motherland. Remove the separatists, China's rhetoric went, and Taiwan will return to the motherland--allow them to govern, and China will one day have to attack.

The election of the more accommodationist President Ma Ying-jeou has somewhat stalled China's belligerence, but Taiwan is a democracy and the "separatists" will be voted back in one day. The Taiwanese public, moreover, is itself becoming
more separatist--only a tiny and diminishing minority wants to unify with China. This fact may explain why, even after Ma's election, China has not halted its military build-up across the Strait: Over 1,000 ballistic missiles, 300 advanced fighters, dozens of submarines and destroyers are poised to wreak havoc on the small, isolated island. As China grows stronger it is no longer fanciful to imagine it pulling a Putin, trumping up any number of Taiwanese "provocations" as a pretext to attack.

The underlying tensions in the Taiwan Strait bear important similarities to those in the Caucasus. Just as authoritarian Russia objects to a democratic, pro-American Georgia, so too authoritarian China sees a democratic, pro-American Taiwan as a gaping wound on its periphery. The main cause of tensions is domestic politics. An authoritarian China, like authoritarian Russia, needs fervent nationalism to retain its shaky legitimacy. The "sacred goal" of reunifying the motherland serves that purpose well.

Their reading of the way that Beijing shapes the perception of Taiwan is excellent, as is their forthright acknowledgement of China's belligerence on the Taiwan question. Is Georgia a good analogy for Taiwan? At present, South Ossetia complicates the analogy beyond repair, I think.

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TIME meanwhile marches on with an article on Ma Ying-jeou's trip to Paraguay that highlights yet another region where China is rapidly gaining influence, and at the same time reveals some of the problems Ma is facing...

But the Latin America jaunt could still prove politically fraught for Ma, whose domestic popularity has been slumping in parallel with Taiwan's economy. Paraguay is one of the few remaining countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan rather than with China. Incoming populist President Fernando Lugo has said he favors reversing that policy in order to take advantage of skyrocketing Chinese investment in Latin America — roughly a quarter of China's total overseas investment, according to one estimate. His government has asked Taiwan for a $71 million aid package — seen by some analysts as enticement not to change its diplomatic allegiance.

Ma has promised to stop the "checkbook diplomacy" that previous leaders have practiced for decades. Indeed, Taiwan's long-standing practice of wooing small, often poor, international allies with economic aid has occasionally proven embarrassing. In May, a scandal erupted when middlemen commissioned by Taipei to help seduce Papua New Guinea away from Beijing were accused of absconding with $30 million of government funds. Even if, as analysts expect, Taiwan doesn't offer Paraguay the full $71 million, by going, Ma risks being seen as continuing the practice of bribing impoverished nations in Latin America and Africa for their support. "Ma should not expose himself to this kind of open blackmail," says Loh I-Cheng, Taiwan's former ambassador to South Africa.

Paraguay had been hinting about switching recognition to China, which apparently is a major destination for that nation's soybean crop. The article cites Andrew Yang, who is always picked up for these pieces, and is pro-Ma. But it is a fairly good report, free of the fawning over Ma that is so often a staple of the international media (He went to Harvard! He speaks English!) and containing good information on the stances of the various political actors. Still has the "split in 1949" nonsense, though.

[Taiwan]