Forbes came out with a couple of articles that highlight how close the DPP and KMT policies are on China investments. First, there was a very short article on Frank Hsieh, now Chairman of the DPP, who said:The government should ease regulations on China investments as soon as possible, subject to national security considerations, the Commercial Times reported, citing Frank Hsieh, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).High on the agenda should be relaxing the provision that caps China investments at 40 pct of a company's net worth and allowing local financial institutions to open shop on the mainland, Hsieh said in his capacity as acting chairman of the DPP.
Hsieh's position, readers may recall, is opening to China on a "case-by-case" basis. Forbes has a much, much longer article on the KMT's position, in which Chairman Wu argues that the KMT can prevent capital flight by opening even more to China:
Wu said the KMT is also ready to do away with the current provision capping China-bound investments by local companies at 40 pct of their net worth.
In its place will be a control regime patterned on the system developed by the US to regulate the export of technologies deemed crucial to national security, he said.
'We believe only the right policy can help [dissuade capital flight and] retain capital here,' he said. 'Capital always finds places where it can best preserve value and the highest possible return.'
Currently, China-bound investments are mostly capped at 20-40 pct of a company's net worth; higher net-worth companies have lower ceilings
Note that these are exactly the same positions: both argue for a case-by-case basis. Neither will restrain the flow of investments to China, since review systems in Taiwan rarely (1) have serious teeth or (2) are strictly enforced. It seems that both parties are signaling that business can do what it wants. However, rising labor costs in China may deflect investment elsewhere, to Vietnam, for example. India is often mentioned as a possible destination, but infrastructure there doesn't match China's.
Meanwhile Forbes has a little blurb that gives an authoritative estimate for the size of Taiwan's investments in China that is much greater than I had realized:
No matter which side wins, the money that the Taiwanese have taken offshore -- estimated by Morgan Stanley to be as much as $207 billion in capital outflow between 2000 and the end of the third quarter in 2007--should start to come home. This is a lot of money relative to the $625 billion market value of the Taiwanese stock market.
$207 billion -- a sum equal to about 2/3 of Taiwan's GDP. Sheesh!
Finally, Wendell Minnick over at DefenseNews.com has an excellent article on Ma Ying-jiu's cross-strait policies and defense issues.
[Taiwan]
4 comments:
Not sure if you caught these or not, basically another invasion senario by Rand Corp.
Hypothetical attack on U.S. outlined by China
Entering the Dragon's Lair
links from chinadigitaltimes.net
Many fail to see the significance of the Taiwanese investments in mainland China. China of course realizes it.
Taiwan would have been better off considering its limbo in the sovereignty game to spread its largess around in South America and Africa.
But the language and cultural ties to China will be Taiwan's undoing.
The political moves to open up trade with China are late in coming and of little difference at this point. Mere stumbling blocks to the players involved.
Some people I know are planning to shut down their operations in China. But whether this signals the return of 207 billion bucks is something we'll wait and see. Also, UBS and other big banks are now targeting Taiwan's wealth management market, could this possibly mean that more and more funds are being repatriated? I think those investment banks might know something we don't.
Everyone likes to open their mouth on the economy without actually doing any research. Taiwan in the past 4 years, has increasingly diversified foreign investments with increasing investments in Vietnam, Phillipines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Poland, etc.). There's at last some India getting in their too. This makes Taiwan much less dependent on
China for growth.
On the export side, Taiwan is becoming a bigger and bigger exporter to Europe, Japan, Middle East, and Central/South America. The link Taiwan has with the US economy isn't as strong as it used to be, and actually there is a change the US/UK recession might not affect Taiwan's exports so much (TIER is optimistic, reducing estimate of growth but keeping it at 4.29%).
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