Japanese Papers on China-Taiwan military balance

One important trend of the last few years has been a halting but on the whole steady shift in Japan's attitudes toward Taiwan, with at least some Japanese politicians and analysts arguing that Taiwan is important to Japan's security and that the Japanese really ought to defend it. The Daily Yomiuri offers a couple of articles this week analyzing the military balance between Taiwan and China. This first one, like many before it, argues the balance is shifting:

According to the defense white paper for 2007, China possesses 70 frigates and destroyers as against 30 held by Taiwan. China overwhelms Taiwan in the possession of submarines 60 to four. China's marine research vessels and submarines are stepping up their activities in the waters off eastern Taiwan.

China's air force also has been active in the airspace above the Taiwan Strait.

"Chinese warplanes have been flying into the airspace over the Taiwan Strait frequently and their flight technique has improved," a high-ranking Taiwan Air Force officer said.

Taiwan has deployed F-16 and Mirage aircraft as its mainstay fighter jets. China, on the other hand, announced last January a plan to deploy self-developed J-10 fighter jets, which are said to have capabilities matching those of F-16s.

China has deployed 1,328 ballistic missiles targeted at Taiwan, about seven times more than in 2000, when the administration of President Chen Sui-ban was inaugurated in Taiwan. Taiwan, on the other hand, has deployed only three sets of Patriot surface-to-air guided missiles (PAC-2) in the surburbs of Taipei and elsewhere. China successfully conducted an anti-satellite test last year, destroying a satellite with a missile .

As a counterbalance to China's military arsenal, Taiwan's military wants to possess PAC-3 missiles, P-3C antisubmarine patrol planes and diesel-powered submarines, which the U.S. administration of President George W. Bush decided to sell to Taiwan in 2001.

But the deals did not make any progress because deliberations on budgetary appropriations made little headway in Taiwan's parliament due to dissent by opposition parties. Appropriations for the purchase of P-3Cs and submarine research costs were approved by the parliament in June. Taipei has sought to purchase 66 modified F-16s, but Washington has not complied with the request as it has grown increasingly distrustful of the Chen administration.

A second Daily Yomiuri piece is an interview with Vice Defense Minister Ko:

The Yomiuri Shimbun: What has the Chinese Navy been doing recently?

Ko Chen-heng: Chinese warships sailed across what China conceives as the "first defense line" [running from off Japan through Taiwan to Singapore] once or twice a year in the latter half of 1990s. But the frequency has increased to five or six times in the past year or two. This indicates China's political intention to demonstrate that the Taiwan Strait is an "internal sea of China."

Chinese submarines have been expanding the area of their operations into the high seas, increasing their activities off the eastern and southern parts of Taiwan. They are expected to increase their activities in the Bashi Channel in the future. Due to the improvement in naval technology, it has become difficult to conduct antisubmarine patrol activities. China aims to ward off U.S. aircraft carriers in times of emergency, at the Taiwan Strait.

Max Hirsch over at Kyodo News observes that Taiwan has apparently armed a warship with its top secret missile:

Another senior officer told Kyodo News that the Hsiung Feng III is ''in a testing phase,'' despite its deployment.

The sighting occurred as Taiwan's navy hosted a group of foreign and local reporters on military exercises at sea on board a French-made Lafayette frigate.

Its helicopter deck thronged with reporters, that frigate passed by the Cheng Kung while exiting and returning to the port, leading to the sighting.

When the Lafayette returned to port after conducting exercises at sea, workers could be seen removing some of the missiles aboard the Cheng Kung, triggering speculation over whether the navy had unintentionally allowed the press to view the missiles.

Plenty of food for thought...

[Taiwan]