Ma-Tsai race in 2012 is out. Don't be distracted; the legislative election is at least as important; I'm looking forward to the polling on that. Among likely voters, Ma leads 43-42 with 15% undecided. TVBS generally underestimates pan-Green support so it is quite interesting that things are so close.
The chart above shows the breakdown by age group. Among younger voters Tsai has a crushing advantage, but Ma's strength is in the group most like to vote, the 40-60 cohorts. As one observer noted, that is also the last group that grew up during the days when the island's educational system was nothing but pro-China brainwashing. It is also the group most likely to be employed in the strongly pro-KMT bureaucracy and gov't businesses. The young face under- and unemployment, by contrast.
Further down, the chart notes that among self-identified independents Tsai leads Ma 39-33, but it should be noted that the "independents" often contain a disproportion of closeted pan-Green supporters. For those of you who thought Tsai would appeal to women, Ma leads among femmes 45-37, while Tsai wins with men, 48-41. Geographically support is predictable, with Ma crushing in the north and Tsai leading in the south, with the central area up for grabs at 42-41 in favor of Ma. Jason Hu's mayoralty of Taichung has not enthused voters, who are gradually developing a taste for more than endless kowtowing of government to land developers and massive government debt. I suspect that after the way voters were played by KMT propaganda in the mayoral elections after the KMT gangster assassination attempt, there are going to be some votes to balance out "erroneous" votes in favor of the KMT.
"Ethnically" the vote also breaks out predictably. Among self-identified Taiwanese Minnan voters, Tsai rules 46-40, Ma has Taiwanese Hakkas at 50-39, and of course, the "mainlanders" -- whose ethnicity is entirely a construction of KMT propaganda and Taiwanese history -- where he has 71% of the vote.
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