Saturday, November 27, 2010

Election Day is here

Election day is here at last. Lovely weather today; I'll head out for a ride shortly. Visited some stations around here; as usual, the local brothers are out exhorting locals to vote for the candidate of their choice.

It doesn't seem very likely that the shooting last night will have any effect on the election. The 2004 assassination attempt on Chen Shui-bian by a disgruntled Blue supporter had no discernible effect on that election, despite claims by the KMT.

The gangland killing attempt on a local KMT candidate by the gangster supporter of a rival KMT candidate really ought to be a reminder to voters of which party is in thick with gangsters, but then that presupposes a whole range of assumptions about voter behavior which two decades of electing corrupt, gangster-backed and openly gangster candidates to public office really should have dispelled by now.

What it is a reminder of, however, is how easy it would be to knock off a politician who actually attempted to meaningfully interdict gangster influence over Taiwan society by locking up gangsters and shutting down their operations. One crazy guy with a gun could easily take care of the problem. Or professionals from China could be brought in, as they likely were when Taoyuan County Chief Liu pang-yu and several others were killed in a gangland-style massacre over a decade ago and in the case of the Taipei city councilman from the PFP, Wu Shan-chiu, in 2007. It is also a reminder that one of the most important beneficiaries of the ECFA sell-out deal is going to be the cross-strait gangster nexus. You won't see that in the international media, though.

Speaking of China, let me remind my readers that the CCP Empire's first aircraft carrier is the Shi Lang.
For eight years now, China has been tinkering with a half finished Russian aircraft carrier. Two years ago, this ex-Russian aircraft carrier, Varyag, was renamed the Shi Lang (after the Chinese general who took possession of Taiwan in 1681, the first time China ever paid any attention to the island) and given the pennant number 83.
But don't worry, everyone knows that "tensions" have been reduced. After all, the media says so, which means it must be true.

Go DPP! Make us a Christmas present of all five municipalities today.
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.


Richard said...

Is there some news article that can refute the KMT's statements that the CSB shooting affected the outcome greatly? I was having a conversation with a friend today about the Lien shooting and CSB shooting and how it will swing the vote, and they said there was surveys done after the CSB election stating it did influence the vote. I'm trying to find something to refute that, or at least something that isn't KMT-based reporting.

Anonymous said...

isn't it ironic. In 2004, Lien and Deep Blue claimed Chen set up his own shooting to get more votes as the race was so tight. Now the Taipei and Xinbei races are also extremely tight and it is Lien's son who was shot, but fortunately, it seems his injuries are not life threatening.

So far, no one has turned the table on Lien and claim that the KMT set up this shooting for the purpose of getting out sympathy votes for the KMT candidates!

After all, Lien and Deep Blue argued that that it is quite easy to set up such a shooting without endangering the life of the victim.

Michael Turton said...

Yeah Richard, just ask him to produce the surveys. No such surveys were conducted. I addressed some of this claim here.

Raj said...

Michael, any chance of updating the blog as results/news comes in?

Raj said...

Oh dear looks like the DPP haven't taken a single seat. Big disappointment for them, big boost to the KMT.

The DPP needs a new strategy or it can kiss 2012 goodbye - the economy is probably only going to get better, so it can't hope for a bust.

Greg said...


Nothing changed.

DDP -- Gaoxiong; Tainan
KMT -- Everything else.

With all the problems surrounding the KMT, I still agree with the majority of the Taiwanese people. )I've heard to many horror stories from the CSB days, and everything the DDP says seems to be nonsense.)

Anonymous said...

Blah blah blah. Taiwanese tired/angry about Blues selling out to China. Blues agenda obvious, destined to lose. Blah blah blah.

Michael Turton said...

With all the problems surrounding the KMT, I still agree with the majority of the Taiwanese people. )I've heard to many horror stories from the CSB days, and everything the DDP says seems to be nonsense.

I totally agree with the Taiwanese people too, Greg. I suggest you check the total vote count and revise your statement.

Greg said...

@ MT:

民主進步黨: 3,766,999 (49.88%)
中國國民黨: 3,363,226 (44.53%)
政黨得票數總計: 7,130,225 (94.4%)
無黨籍及未經政黨推薦: 422,641(5.6%)

Good point!

Marc said...

Greg said...

I doubt Greg know what he's talking about esp since he refers to some strange insecticide party called the "DDP"

There was no DPP failure. It's just the status quo. North votes "blah", south votes "grin".

But CSB's son won a legislative seat defying the propaganda that the Chen family are personae non grata; and Tsai and Su Jia-chyuan took enough votes to deny a mandate to Chu and Hu.

The only really weird result is the lopsided Hau victory.

Raj said...


I said "take" as in "take control of from someone else". If I had meant they "won" nothing I would have said as much.


The shooting probably helped get out the KMT vote in Taipei and would explain their big margin of victory there.

Having looked at the overall result, it's not a disaster for the DPP - they won more votes nationally. But having control of Taipei or Xinbei would have helped them get votes in 2012 in that part of Taiwan. That they won neither race may come back to haunt them.

There's a lot that can change in two years, especially in Taiwan. But as I said earlier, I think that the economy will be better for Ma from now on. There might not be much of a feel-good factor, but I doubt there will be any economic disasters. Voters therefore may play it safe thinking that the DPP won't do any better and might be worse.

Whilst Taiwan's population isn't concentrated in and around Taipei, there are a lot of votes to be won there. With no high-profile DPP politician to show that they can run somewhere like that better than the KMT (places like Kaohsiung are sometimes looked down on), it will be harder for the DPP to reassure voters there that they can do the job. Their only president so far, Chen, is widely reviled amongst swing-voters.

The DPP can't bank on a series of crippling KMT errors. They need to find a way to convince voters in areas they need to pick up votes that they are up to the job. A serious national manifesto, with easy to convey messages that sound like they could benefit the country, needs to be produced. Picking at problems with the ECFA won't work because people won't care until they get stung by it. That message needs to be repeated over and over again until it sticks.

China is an important subject for the presidential elections, but it must be only one of the DPP's policies. Whoever faces Ma, he/she must not get trapped into being stereotyped as obsessed about China. They need a strong domestic policy.

It was nice to see Chen win by a large majority, but picking up more votes in DPP strongholds won't win national elections. The light blue/non-aligned vote needs to be courted, even at the risk of annoying some die-hard greens.

Greg said...

The vote was closer up north:

中國國民黨:795,403 (55.65%)
民主進步黨:626,075 (43.81%)

Xin Taibei
中國國民黨:1,115,536 (52.61%)
民主進步黨:1,004,900 (47.39%)

中國國民黨:730,284 (51.12%)
民主進步黨:698,358 (48.88%)

But, in Gaoxiong/Tainan DDP pulled ahead:

民主進步黨:821,089 (52.8%)
中國國民黨:319,171 (20.52%)

民主進步黨:619,897 (60.41%)
中國國民黨:406,196 (39.59%)

The Taiwanese down south have benefited from ECFA, but still haven't made the connection politically. Perhaps they'll figure it out with all the money they'll make before 2012 :)

Anonymous said...

As you will see tomorrow in newspapers, the overall popular vote was in favor of the DPP, as Michael pointed out. They have increased their number of councilors everywhere. What my info points out to is that the bullet incident DID have a significant influence on the vote in the pitifully called Sinbei. It got blue voters out in hords. Whoever did this is not the point.

Tsai could have won without this incident.

Also, the fellow in Taichung did much better than expected. I vote for him as the next president in 2012.


Michael Turton said...

Taichung was even better than the DPP internals suggested. Very good performance here, better than I expected. Xinbei turned out about as I expected. But Taipei -- yeesh. The postmortem on that will be quite interesting.


Michael Turton said...

The only really weird result is the lopsided Hau victory.

Yes, and it gets weirder by the minute. Can't wait to check the precinct numbers later this week.


Raj said...

On second thoughts I might be wrong about the "positive rolemodel" theory. People have to get elected sometime to oust incumbants, and they don't always need to have lots of governors or lower-level politicians from their party also elected.

But it's still a big disappointment, even if the overall results are encouraging.

That said it would have been really hard for the DPP if Tsai had won. She couldn't have easily given up her position without annoying her constituants, and I think she's the best of the potential candidates at the moment.

That said, what about the guy who ran in Taichung - is he a possibility?

Anonymous said...

Before you get too excited about vote totals down south.. How motivated would you be about voting, if your candidate was assured a 30% vote margin?

Michael Turton said...

Well, the South went pretty much as all the polls had it. I don't think the big surplus of DPP votes had much effect on turnout. Was it substantially lower?

Dixteel said...

Boy, Taipei is just as tough as a rock, although their KMT mayor performed extremely poorly KMT can still win there.

Although overall DPP this a good thing or a bad thing?

Michael Turton said...

It is not a good thing or a bad thing, but a thing with good and bad aspects. Let's all take a rest and read the analyses tomorrow and see what we think then. It's been an exhausting run.

N.J said...

Taipei City result was not a surprise. The various polls before the elections suggested Hau was rising against Su who was dropping.
Xinbei race wasn't that tight. That was a 110K votes victory. The polls were right again.
Taichung was very tight. Hu popularity was always dropping in the last few months, never raising or stabilizing at a certain point. Su would have won if he had another two weeks.
and KMT suffered a big defeat in the Councilors elections nationwide.

STOP Ma said...

Hmm...looks like "Chinese Taipei" is living up to its name.



Anonymous said...

Not good at all.
DPP lost, that's all, and this is sad.
Tsai said she would leave the head of DPP if DPP does not get 3 of 5.

I'd like to learn more about the shot, with the son of Lien Chan, the last taiwanese official that talked with Hu Jintao. This is sooo strange.

And this is happening just before election day, of course. Not by chance in my opinion.

Patrick Cowsill said...

"isn't it ironic. In 2004, Lien and Deep Blue claimed Chen set up his own shooting to get more votes as the race was so tight." It really is ironic. I wonder how our media will follow up on this. Will they go on and on in their obsessive discussions on how this absolutely swayed the northern vote? LOL.

I also wonder how our one or two pro-Taiwan media outlets will take the topic on.

jerome in vals said...


Step up to the plate, Taiwan! Stand up! Rise up from the grass-roots! Fight!

For Pete’s sakes, DPP, don’t let your constituency down this time around. Get over your China frame of mind and focus on:

T. R. A.

And read the fine print.

If the Chinese of both persuasions hate S.F.P.T., it follows that S.F.P.T. works for Taiwan.

It boggles the mind why those PhDs and lawyers can't understand this simple equation.

And Taiwanese should uphold it because on S.F.P.T. cession Taiwan, China’s red lines are meant to be crossed and crossed unabashedly.

「我們的中華民國到去年終就隨大陸淪陷而已滅亡了,我們今天都已成了亡國之民」(蔣介石1950.3.13 演講詞)。

Anonymous said...

The Lien's shooting is perplexed and we probably would never know the true story. I'd venture out to speculate that it might be secretly planned and carried out by the very wing within KMT that is responsible for the unsolved slaying of 陳文成,林義雄 family, etc, without the knowledge of Ma. It could be a smartly calculated move of the power struggle within KMT.

Greg said...

@ Raj:

My comment was in response to your first comment -- when you asked for the results :) Your second message wasn't up yet (or I didn't see it).