Domestic Situation: KMT

Paul turned back to the Emperor, said: "When they permitted you to mount your father's throne, it was only on the assurance that you'd keep the spice flowing. You've failed them, Majesty. Do you know the consequences?

Aussie scholar Bruce Jacobs has written a review of the KMT's internal politics that discusses some of the problems Ma faces:

President Ma must reform the KMT
By Bruce Jacobs 家博

Wednesday, Sep 10, 2008, Page 8

In the second televised presidential election debate, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) expressed regret that his party had not reformed during its eight years in opposition. After the presidential election, I wrote an op-ed in this newspaper arguing that reform of the KMT remained an urgent issue. Today, more than five months later, the KMT still remains unreformed, but party reform has become even more urgent.

The KMT center, and not the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has become the most important opposition to the Ma government. For example, on July 10, the China Times, one of Taiwan's most "blue" journals, attacked Ma's leadership in a damning editorial. Four days later, the Kuomintang News Network, a KMT English-language Web site, circulated a full English translation around the world.

Such KMT attacks on Ma and his government have become commonplace and the most severe strikes come from KMT legislators elected on the party list such as Chiu Yi (邱毅) and Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱). One example of KMT legislators refusing to listen to Ma was their refusal to pass all of his nominees for the Control Yuan despite the KMT's overwhelming majority in the legislature.

In principle, I agree with Ma's desire to "separate the party from the government" (黨政分離). But this policy has not worked. With such old, conservative men as KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung, former chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) in charge, the KMT irresponsibly nominated unsuitable people for the legislative elections.

Again, take Chiu as an example. After the 2004 presidential election, Chiu got on a truck and rammed it into the Kaohsiung District Court, a crime that was video-recorded, televised and for which he served a jail term.

Why did the KMT nominate a convicted criminal high on the party list where his election was a certainty? KMT officials said Chiu was rewarded for sacrificing himself for the party. In fact, Chiu and the other critics are beholden to the old conservative men, not to the KMT.

Rather than let the old conservative men run the KMT, Ma should have played a more active role in the nominations. If he had, there would be much less opposition now as many of those now attacking Ma would have failed in their bids to become legislators.

In nominating his Control Yuan list, Ma should have personally met with KMT legislative leaders, noted that his list was carefully constructed to represent different sectors and demanded that the legislature pass all (or none) of his nominees.

Ma's failure to discuss the issue personally meant that the legislature picked off several somewhat green nominees. He failed in his effort to be a president of all the people, as well as losing face, because he could not control an overwhelmingly KMT legislature.

There is only one solution. To move out the old conservative men, Ma must become the new KMT chairman. In an effort to reform, he can bring in some younger people who believe in reform to help implement it, such as Taoyuan County Commissioner Eric Chu (朱立倫) and Chiayi Mayor Huang Min-hui (黃敏惠) in such roles as secretary-general or vice-chairman.

This must happen very soon as the new team needs to be able to ensure that the nominees for county commissioner and mayor next year are truly interested in reform.

As the opinion polls show, Ma's presidency is in serious trouble. He has fallen from a high of more than 58 percent of the votes to less than half of the people expressing satisfaction with his government. Some aspects of this decline relate to his foreign and China policies, which seem to differ from his campaign speeches. But, the Diaoyutai (釣魚台) turmoil, for example, would have been much easier to manage had wild KMT legislators not helped create an atmosphere of increasing tension.

Clearly, gaining control of the KMT is much more than a domestic matter. And it is vital to the maintenance of Taiwan's democratic health. President Ma, please act soon!

There's a lot going on here. First and foremost, Ma was chairman of the KMT before for 18 months from 2005-7 and made absolutely no reformist changes. I think Ma learned his lesson about purification back in the early 90s when he was Justice Minister and attempted to go after corruption. President Lee apparently canned him for that. I am highly skeptical that Ma will ever be a reformist about anything, let alone his own party -- recall that Ma never called for political reforms during the martial law era. He converted to democracy only after it was politically safe for him to do so.

Second, this isn't just a KMT issue; it's a governance issue. I wondered aloud several times prior to the election whether the legislature would cooperate with Ma after he because President, because it has so much power. The ROC constitution was never meant to be more than the candy coating over a one-party state and the ROC presidency is not inherently powerful. Previous presidents derived their authority from their position as Party Chairman and as Party leaders with personal networks at their command. The local media have reported several times on Ma's distance from the rest of the KMT. Hence, even a vigorous and activist president might have trouble gaining ascendancy over the legislature, simply because he doesn't have the constitutional authority. It doesn't help that the Speaker of the legislature is Wang Jyn-ping, one of Ma's bitterest political rivals.

Finally, the issue of reform is bound up with the source of KMT power: money. The KMT has power because it distributes central government cash to its local networks through the construction-industrial state, and through the irrigation, fish, and agricultural cooperatives to the rural areas (as I recall both Speaker Wang and current KMT chair Wu came out of the ag cooperatives system). The legislature resolutely blocked reform of the agricultural cooperatives during the two Chen administrations. "Reform" that aimed at integrity, transparency and financial probity would seriously impair the KMT's local patronage networks. It is hard to believe that President Ma could make such a program a reality. No, I suspect that Ma is like the Padishah Emperor in Dune: he was permitted to take the throne with the understanding that the spice would continue to flow......

[Taiwan]

Ma interviewed by Jerome Cohen in NYU Law pub

Ma's former mentor at Harvard, Jerome Cohen, interviews him for an NYU publication. The questions are softball, and some of the answers will make you laugh out loud:

How has the advanced legal education of the kind you got at NYU influenced you as a leader?

My studies taught me about the ideas of constitutional democracy—freedom, human rights and rule of law. Those are probably the most important that have influenced me in the days since I left the United States.

There is no record of Ma supporting democracy until a decade after his return to the US -- he opposed the lifting of martial law, opposed the repeal of anti-dissident laws, and served the dictator and mass murderer Chiang Ching-kuo as his private secretary. This remark is pure cant.

One of the great things about Ma is that he is always promising what the DPP administration has already been delivered:

Back in the 1970s, when you were a student at NYU, we couldn’t get mainland people to come to the States.

And now people from Taiwan and the mainland are on university campuses everywhere. One of my campaign promises was to let [mainland] university students come to Taiwan. I would like to see more young people cross the Taiwan Strait so 20 years down the road we will see them as the leaders of their respective societies. Education is the best way to bring the two sides together.

Let Chinese university students come here? That's a DPP innovation -- in my PHD classes at NCKU we had two last year. Note Ma's thinking -- the "two sides" must be "brought together." Why? The answer is obvious....

There's more in that vein. I won't say "enjoy".....

[Taiwan]

Hong Kong Commentator on Ma's Recent Moves

A translation of an article from a Hong Kong paper on Ma's regressive two-region theory.

++++++++

Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese 08 Sep 08

"Wen Wei Forum" article by senior commentator Chi Shuo-ming: "Intentions Behind Ma Ying-jeou's 'Two-Area' Theory"

The other day, Taiwan "President" Ma Ying-jeou gave an exclusive interview to the Mexican newspaper, El Sol de Mexico, during which he again made special remarks on cross-Strait relations. He maintained that the relationship between the two sides of the Strait is a special relationship, but not a state-to-state relationship. Subsequently, Wang Yu-chi, spokesperson for Taiwan's "Presidential Office," offered the media an interpretation: According to the provisions of the "Constitution of the Republic of China [ROC]," relations between Taiwan and the mainland are relations between "the Taiwan area and the mainland area;" the "ROC" is a state with independent sovereignty; although Taiwan and the mainland are not in a position to recognize each other, they can at least refrain from mutual denial. If this is where the argument stopped, it would give no cause for much criticism. But the problem is that Taiwan would not stop here. It wishes to broaden its international space and use the same logic to come to the following conclusion: Since the mainland is committed to non-denial, it should, implicitly, acquiesce in Taiwan's joining international organizations around the world whose members are states with independent sovereignty. This is probably the undeclared intention of the "two-area" theory that Ma Ying-jeou has put forward!

A Self-Contradictory Proposition

This is in itself a self-contradictory proposition: It is an area, but it is referred to as a state with independent sovereignty and, further to that, "the mainland area" is requested not to deny it. Although it is quite a mouthful, what it will eventually lead to cannot be clearer. Ma Ying-jeou is hoping that Beijing will let Taiwan have a place in the international arena, like what happened to East Germany and West Germany and what is happening to South Korea [ROK] and North Korea [DPRK]. He started off by defining the two sides of the Taiwan Strait as two areas under one China, before pointing out that the Taiwan area is the "ROC" with independent sovereignty and, further to that, claiming that this reality is not denied by the People's Republic of China [PRC]. Consequently, Taiwan is free to have its international presence felt extensively and join international organizations that are open to states with independent sovereignty only. After that....

In fact, Ma Ying-jeou's "mutual non-denial" is meaningless as far as Beijing is concerned. Beijing does not care about Taiwan's non-denial. The international status that the PRC is enjoying at present will not be shaken under any circumstances because of Taiwan's denial. Conversely, Taiwan has a greater need for Beijing's non-denial in order to win more international space. The CPC did have a history of non-denial of the ROC at one point, but that was before 1949. Even when the CPC was going to overthrow that regime, they could not deny its existence. But after the Kuomintang government was overthrown and relocated to Taiwan, when it attempted to stay on the international stage as a state with independent sovereignty, Beijing had no choice but to reject it.

A Ploy of Defensive Offense

In fact, when the Wang-Ku meeting resulted in the "92 Consensus" and suggested that the two sides of the Strait express their own interpretations of one China separately, it was saying that you may interpret or express your status as a state with independent sovereignty, but you must not demand that Beijing acknowledge or refrain from negating this expression of yours. As a matter of fact, it was for the very purpose of negating this expression of yours that the two governments advanced diametrically different expressions, which were expressions of mutual denial. The original purpose of "one China, separate expressions" was mutual denial: I do not recognize you and you do not recognize me; I deny you and you deny me. That is why the two sides had their own expressions that were different, without departing from the principle of "one China." The theory of "mutual non-denial" just presented seems out of tune with "one China, separate expressions."

"Diplomatic truce" that Ma Ying-jeou suggested is in essence none other than a ploy of defensive offense to win an international status at the end of the day. This is because Ma Ying-jeou is aware that given the current international clout of the Beijing government, Taiwan is unlikely to be able to buy "diplomatic ties" with more countries, even if it depleted its foreign exchange reserves. He is in no position to take on Beijing on the diplomatic front. That is why he first proposed "diplomatic truce" and then came up with the "two-area" theory, before trying to obtain the pass to the international community in the name of "mutual non-denial," so that "one China, separate expressions" would become more operable in the international arena.

Economy Before Politics

I believe Beijing is fully aware that Taiwan badly needs an international status and Taiwan should have an international status. During the first meeting between the leaders of the two ruling parties, the Kuomintang and the CPC, in Beijing in May 2008, CPC General Secretary Hu Jintao gave the assurance that he had noted this aspiration of the Taiwan public. But the cross-Strait relations had regressed under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party that is in favor of "Taiwan independence" over the years, creating a host of burning issues that were crying out to be solved, so Beijing had to shelve disputed issues and work on the easier issues before tackling more difficult ones. Ma Ying-jeou was hoping for an "instant improvement" of Taiwan's economy after he took office, but it has turned out to be his own wishful thinking. After eight years of wallowing in the Chen Shui-bian [Ch'en Shui-pien] mire, compounded by the deterioration of the international economic environment, Taiwan's economic recovery will be, inevitably, slow in coming.

Similarly, benefiting from the positive interactions following the inauguration of Ma Ying-jeou, the cross-Strait relations are presenting a new profile. Taiwan's wish list is very long. It is not that Beijing is unwilling to give what Taiwan wants, but it has to do it step by step according to the principle of putting economy before politics and working on the easier issues before tackling more difficult ones. If agenda is anything to go by, even the "Chiang-Chen meeting" between the Straits Exchange Foundation and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, slated for this October, cannot possibly solve all political and economic issues at one fell swoop.

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The Taiwan News editorialized on the two-region idea the other day, pointing out just how bizarre it is:

Besides attempting to resurrect the fantasy of an all encompassing ROC cherished by the Chiangs which had been negated by Taiwan's bottom-up democratization, Ma has blatantly transgressed his mandate as the elected president, not regional chief executive, of Taiwan's 23 million citizens.

After loudly touting his "love for Taiwan" and declaring just before the polls that "Taiwan's future can only be decided by the 23 million people of Taiwan," Ma had immediately switched in his May 20 inaugural speech to unilaterally declare that "all the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to the Chinese race" and further negated Taiwan's actually existing independence with his arbitrary claim that Taiwan is not a "state."

Ma's arbitrary redefinition of "special state-to-state relations" into "region to region" relations is by no means harmless. His definition of Taiwan as a "region" undermines our claim to full, equal and distinct representation in the international community as a democratic independent state and negates the right of democratic self-determination of our 23 million people under the principle of "people's sovereignty" embraced by Lee and underlining the DPP's May 1999 "Resolution on the Future of Taiwan."

Ma's redefinition also opens questions about his own status, namely whether he considers himself to be the constitutionally mandated head of state of the state composed of Taiwan's 23 million citizens, the "chief executive" of a "region" or, megalomanically, the sole legitimate "president" of a "great ROC" including over 1.3 billion people in the PRC, Mongolia and Taiwan.

We support former president Lee's position that Ma's unilateral "redefinition" of Taiwan from a democratic and independent state into a mere "region" betrays his electoral mandate from our 23 million citizens and can be called 'traitorous."

We call on Ma to either retract his statement, submit his definition that Taiwan is merely a "region" for approval or rejection by our 23 million citizens through national referendum or resign his post for having won election through fraud.

Yes, we're slouching toward the Taiwan SAR.....

[Taiwan]

Bush Administration issues new State Department Guidelines --UPDATED--

The Bush Administration issued the annual State Department guidelines for official interaction with The Beautiful Island, reported the Taipei Times today....

Contacts between US diplomatic personnel and Taiwanese officials and representatives abroad would be strictly limited under new guidelines the State Department has issued that appear to tighten the curbs on bilateral interaction that the department set down in government-wide prohibitions last issued in 2001, a copy of the new guidelines obtained by the Taipei Times on Monday showed.

The guidelines, which are believed to have been issued last week, go as far as barring any US official from writing a note or letter to any Taiwanese official, and banning US officials from attending Taiwanese events or entering official Taiwanese premises.

It appears that the timing of the new guidelines is related to the upcoming celebration of the Double Ten anniversary, and to remind US overseas personnel what they can and cannot do or say.

The guidelines do not break new ground, the article says....

For instance, the guidelines commit the US to a so-called “one-China” policy, a phrase absent in the 2001 guidelines, which were issued shortly after Bush entered the White House as an ardent supporter of Taiwan. Even personal thank-you notes must be written on plain paper and put in plain envelopes to disguise the sender’s official identity.

The guidelines also ban the display of the ROC flag on US premises, which is a no-no absent from the 2001 guidelines, and bar Taiwanese military personnel from showing up in their uniforms.

The new document also contains a new section on US non-support of Taiwan’s membership in international organizations, such as the UN, which require internationally recognized statehood for membership.

The article points out that the document retains previous limits on US official interaction with Taiwan. The codification of the "one China" policy would seem a big change, but little birdies say it is no great change. The article does not mention that while the guidelines specify US non-support of membership in organizations requiring statehood, they do call for support for other forms of international participation. Consistent with that, the guidelines have an exception to the "plain paper note" rule -- US officials can write to Taiwanese reps when they are writing to them as representatives of Taiwan's participation in international organizations. Then the proper organizational referent must be used ("Chinese Taipei").

In other words, the guidelines simply state what we all know US policy to be. Pro-Taiwan organizations in the US protested, nevertheless. As they should....

It is important to note that these guidelines DO NOT apply to AIT. They have their own separate guidance. These guidelines are for US officials in other countries who may be invited to Double 10 celebrations, etc. They are sent around annually at this time to State Department posts around the world, probably because ROC national day celebrations are coming up soon.

UPDATE: Word has it that the 2008 cable is twice as long as the 2006 cable, which had no mention of:

- the US believing that Taiwan is not a sovereign country
- the US not supporting Taiwan's membership in international organizations that require statehood
- guidelines on flying the ROC flag
- "One China Policy."

The clarification of the US position is clearly a lot clearer.....

UPDATE II: Text of the cable (it is unclassified). I have removed links and telephone numbers.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AMGT, PREL, TW
SUBJECT: GUIDELINES ON CONTACTS20WITH TAIWAN

REF: 2007 STATE 123344

1. SUMMARY: EXECUTIVE BRANCH CONTACTS WITH TAIWAN
REPRESENTATIVES ABROAD SHOULD BE CARRIED OUT IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE GUIDELINES LAID OUT IN PARA 3 BELOW. THE
GUIDELINES APPLY TO ALL OCCASIONS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEEKS PRIOR TO THE OCTOBER 10 ("DOUBLE
TEN") ANNIVERSARY OF THE FOUNDING OF THE "REPUBLIC OF
CHINA." PLEASE ENSURE THAT THESE GUIDELINES ARE BROADLY
CIRCULATED WITHIN YOUR MISSION. THIS CABLE DOES NOT
PROVIDE GUIDELINES FOR AIT EMPLOYEES.
END SUMMARY.

BACKGROUND ON UNOFFICIAL NATURE OF U.S. RELATIONS WITH
TAIWAN

2. FOR THE PAST THREE DECADES, THE UNITED STATES HAS
ADHERED TO A ONE CHINA POLICY, CONSISTENT WITH THE THREE
U.S.-PRC JOINT COMMUNIQUES AND THE TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT
(ALL AVAILABLE ON THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S WEBSITE). IN
KEEPING WITH THIS ONE CHINA POLICY, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT
ESTABLISHED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE PRC IN 1979 AND
0A RECOGNIZED THE PRC AS THE SOLE LEGAL GOVERNMENT OF CHINA.
FOLLOWING THE TERMINATION OF FORMAL RELATIONS BETWEEN THE
UNITED STATES AND THE GOVERNING AUTHORITIES ON TAIWAN, THE
UNITED STATES BEGAN MAINTAINING UNOFFICIAL RELATIONS WITH
THE ISLAND, PER THE TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT. SIMILARLY, THE
U.S.-PRC JOINT COMMUNIQUE OF 1979 STATES THAT "THE PEOPLE
OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN CULTURAL, COMMERCIAL,
AND OTHER UNOFFICIAL RELATIONS WITH THE PEOPLE OF TAIWAN."

GUIDELINES FOR CONTACTS WITH TAIWAN REPRESENTATIVES

3. THE TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT ESTABLISHED THE AMERICAN
INSTITUTE IN TAIWAN (AIT) AS A NONPROFIT CORPORATION
RESPONSIBLE FOR CARRYING OUT PROGRAMS, TRANSACTIONS, AND
OTHER RELATIONS THAT WOULD, HAD WE MAINTAINED DIPLOMATIC
RELATIONS, HAVE BEEN CONDUCTED BY THE PRESIDENT OR ANY
AGENCY OF THE USG WITH RESPECT TO TAIWAN. TAIWAN'S
COUNTERPART TO AIT IS THE TAIPEI ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL
REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE IN THE UNITED STATES (TECRO).
EXECUTIVE BRANCH OFFICIALS SHOULD ADHERE TO THE FOLLOWING
GUIDELINES FOR INTERACTION WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF TAIWAN:

-- TAIWAN REPRESENTATIVES SHOULD BE TREATED WITH
APPROPRIATE COURTESY AND RESPECT, WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF
OUR UNOFFICIAL RELATIONS WITH THE ISLAND.

--USG OFFICIALS SHOULD CONDUCT THE SAME SUBSTANTIVE RANGE
OF BUSINESS WITH THEIR TAIWAN COUNTERPARTS THAT THEY WOULD
CONDUCT WITH REPRESENTATIVES FROM COUNTRIES WITH WHICH THE
UNITED STATES HAS20DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS.

--MEETINGS BETWEEN USG OFFICIALS AND TAIWAN AUTHORITIES
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES MUST BE HELD OUTSIDE USG AND
TAIWAN OFFICES (E.G., AT PRIVATE MEETING ROOMS OR
RESTAURANTS).

--EMBASSY PERSONNEL MAY ACCEPT INVITATIONS TO PRIVATE
FUNCTIONS HOSTED BY TAIWAN REPRESENTATIVES EITHER IN
RESTAURANTS OR IN THEIR HOMES, BUT NOT IN RESIDENCES OF
TAIWAN'S PRINCIPAL REPRESENTATIVES OR AMBASSADORS.
INVITATIONS TO OFFICIAL TAIWAN-HOSTED FUNCTIONS OR ANY
FUNCTIONS HELD ON TAIWAN'S OFFICIAL PREMISES MAY NOT BE
ACCEPTED.

--U.S. EMBASSY AND CONSULATE PERSONNEL MAY HOST TAIWAN
REPRESENTATIVES AT PRIVATE FUNCTIONS IN RESTAURANTS OR IN
THEIR HOMES, BUT NOT IN U.S. CHIEF OF MISSION RESIDENCES.
TAIWAN REPRESENTATIVES MAY NOT BE INVITED TO U.S.
FUNCTIONS OF AN OFFICIAL NATURE OR TO FUNCTIONS HELD ON
OFFICIAL U.S. PREMISES.

--IN COUNTRIES WHERE THE TAIWAN AMBASSADOR SERVES AS THE
DEAN OF THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS, U.S. PERSONNEL MAY ONLY
ATTEND FUNCTIONS THAT THE TAIWAN AMBASSADOR HOSTS FOR THE
ENTIRE CORPS IN HIS ROLE AS DEAN.

--ANY FUNCTION HELD ON OR AROUND OCTOBER 10, CELEBRATED
BY TAIWAN AUTHORITIES AS THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE FOUNDING
OF THE "REPUBLIC OF CHINA," SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AN
OFFICIAL FUNCTION REGARDLESS OF ITS VENUE OR DECLARED
NATURE. (NOTE: WASHINGTON-BASED EXECUTIVE BRANCH OFFICIALS
ARE PERMITTED TO ATTEND THE SEPARATE TECRO-SPONSORED
=0 ARECEPTION SPECIFICALL Y FOR USG EXECUTIVE BRANCH OFFICIALS
THAT NORMALLY TAKES PLACE IN MID-OCTOBER, BECAUSE IT IS
DISTINCT FROM THE FORMAL DOUBLE-TEN FUNCTION.)

STATE 00095091 002 OF 003


--USG OFFICIALS MAY NOT ATTEND OFFICIAL OVERSEAS
FUNCTIONS THAT HONOR OR ARE HOSTED BY VISITING TAIWAN
AUTHORITIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE A FUNCTION, NOT
ON TAIWAN'S OFFICIAL PREMISES, HOSTED BY TAIWAN
REPRESENTATIVES FOR A MEETING OF AN INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATION IN WHICH TAIWAN IS A FULL MEMBER. REQUESTS
TO ATTEND SUCH EVENTS MUST BE REFERRED TO THE DEPARTMENT
(EAP/TC) FOR CONSIDERATION ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS (SEE
PARA 6 BELOW).

--U.S. GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVES SHOULD NOT CORRESPOND
DIRECTLY WITH AUTHORITIES FROM TAIWAN, BUT RATHER SHOULD
SEND LETTERS THROUGH AIT-TECRO CHANNELS. INDIVIDUALS FROM
TAIWAN WHOM U.S. EXECUTIVE BRANCH OFFICIALS CONTACT ARE
GENERALLY REFERRED TO BY NAME, TITLE, AND CITY WITHOUT USE
OF INTERNATIONAL NOMENCLATURE (E.G., DIRECTOR GENERAL
CHANG, CIVIL AVIATION BUREAU, TAIPEI). CORRESPONDENCE TO
THESE INDIVIDUALS IS PREPARED ON PLAIN WHITE STATIONERY
AND SIGNED WITH A PERSONAL NAME WITHOUT A USG TITLE. (THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE WHEN CORRESPONDING WITH A TAIWAN
REPRESENTATIVE TO AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION OF WHICH
TAIWAN IS A FULL MEMBER. THE REPRESENTATIVE'S TITLE,
AFFILIATION, AND STATUS IN THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE AS
SPECIFIED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE INTERNAT IONAL
ORGANIZATION, E.G., "CHINESE TAIPEI" IN A PEC). AIT WILL
PACKAGE CORRESPONDENCE UNDER AN APPROPRIATE COVER LETTER
TO TECRO, FROM WHICH IT WILL BE RELAYED TO RECIPIENT
AUTHORITIES ON TAIWAN.

GUIDELINES FOR TRAVEL TO TAIWAN

4. ALL EXECUTIVE BRANCH PERSONNEL WHO PLAN TO TRAVEL TO
TAIWAN FOR WORK-RELATED REASONS MUST HAVE PRIOR
CONCURRENCE FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S OFFICE OF TAIWAN
COORDINATION BEFORE REQUESTING TRAVEL CLEARANCE FROM AIT
TAIPEI. USG PERSONNEL TRAVEL TO TAIWAN IN THE CAPACITY OF
CONSULTANTS TO AIT. OFFICIAL TRAVEL IS NOT PERMITTED FOR
STATE OR DEFENSE OFFICIALS ABOVE THE RANK OF OFFICE
DIRECTOR OR FOR UNIFORMED MILITARY PERSONNEL ABOVE THE
LEVEL OF 06 (COLONEL, NAVY CAPTAIN) WITHOUT THE WRITTEN
PERMISSION OF EAP/TC. FOR PERSONAL TRAVEL, SENIOR
EXECUTIVE BRANCH OFFICIALS AT OR ABOVE THE LEVEL OF
ASSISTANT SECRETARY OR THREE-STAR FLAG OFFICERS MUST
OBTAIN CLEARANCE FROM EAP/TC. ALL TRAVEL BY EXECUTIVE
BRANCH PERSONNEL TO TAIWAN OR TRANSITING THROUGH TAIWAN
MUST BE ON A REGULAR (TOURIST) PASSPORT. DIPLOMATIC AND
OFFICIAL PASSPORTS SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR TRAVEL TO
TAIWAN.

U.S. POLICY ON TAIWAN'S STATUS IN INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS

5. CONSISTENT WITH OUR ONE CHINA POLICY, THE UNITED STATES
DOES NOT SUPPORT TAIWAN'S MEMBERSHIP IN INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS FOR WHICH STATEHOOD IS REQUIRED (E.G. THE
UNITED NATIONS OR ANY OF ITS20AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS).
THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS, AS APPROPRIATE, TAIWAN'S
INVOLVEMENT IN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, PRO CESSES,
AGREEMENTS, AND GATHERINGS WHERE STATEHOOD IS NOT A
PREREQUISITE. WITHIN THE PARAMETERS OF OUR ONE CHINA
POLICY, THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT TAKE A POSITION ON WHAT
TAIWAN'S TITLE SHOULD BE IN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS.
THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS FLEXIBLE ARRANGEMENTS AND
NOMENCLATURE ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH THE PRC AND TAIWAN AND
OPPOSES ATTEMPTS BY EITHER SIDE TO USE NOMENCLATURE FOR
POLITICAL PURPOSES INCONSISTENT WITH U.S. POLICY. THE
USG'S OVERALL GOAL IS TO ENABLE THE PEOPLE ON TAIWAN TO
COMPLY WITH INTERNATIONAL REGULATIONS AND GUIDELINES AND
RECEIVE APPROPRIATE INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE AND ADVICE,
DESPITE TAIPEI'S GENERAL LACK OF RECOGNITION AS AN
INDE PENDENT STATE.

GUIDELINES ON TAIWAN MILITARY UNIFORMS AND ROC FLAGS

6. IN KEEPING WITH THE UNOFFICIAL NATURE OF OUR RELATIONS
WITH TAIWAN AND THE FACT THAT THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT
RECOGNIZE TAIWAN AS AN INDEPENDENT, SOVEREIGN STATE,
MILITARY REPRESENTATIVES OF THE AUTHORITIES ON TAIWAN
SHOULD NOT WEAR THEIR UNIFORMS WHILE IN THE UNITED STATES
OR ON U.S. PREMISES OVERSEAS, AND THE "ROC" FLAG SHOULD
NOT BE DISPLAYED ON USG PREMISES.

COORDINATION WITH WASHINGTON ON TAIWAN MATTERS

7. POSTS THAT HAVE ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING CONTACT WITH
TAIWAN OR ITS REPRESENTATIVES SHOULD SEEK EARLY GUID ANCE
FROM EAP'S OFFICE OF TAIWAN COORDINATION

STATE 00095091 003 OF 003


TERMINOLOGY

8. THE DEPARTMENT REMINDS POSTS THAT, CONSISTENT WITH THE
UNOFFICIAL NATURE OF U.S.TAIWAN TIES, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT
DOES NOT REFER TO TAIWAN AS THE "REPUBLIC OF CHINA," THE
"REPUBLIC OF CHINA ON TAIWAN," OR A COUNTRY. THE USG
REFERS TO TAIWAN SIMPLY AS "TAIWAN."

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Speaking of the US, DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen's talk at Heritage is online. Enjoy!

[Taiwan]

Sunday Media Round Up

Last month in speaking to a Mexican newspaper, Ma defined relations between China and Taiwan as "special" but not "special state-to-state" as Lee Teng-hui did, a policy which had held for ten years. The ex-President hit out at Ma this week, saying that he had "turned his back on Taiwan." Think we'll see screeching and hollerin' from all those people who had accused Chen Shui-bian of unilaterally altering the status quo with a referendum, directed at Ma Ying-jeou for unilaterally altering the status quo by downgrading our sovereignty? After all these years here, why am I still asking questions like that?

I can't resist noting that every expat on the island should support the Sarah Palin nomination. With all the Republicans arguing that Alaska's proximity to Russia has made her a foreign affairs expert, every expat on Taiwan now has the credentials to be a China specialist....but on a more serious note, people are asking whether McCain or Obama will be better for Taiwan. Two things should be noted: first, one-issue voting is ridiculous, and second, either could be. Much will depend on who McCain/Obama picks for his Asia people and his Taiwan advisors. I've made comments because I like speculating, like everyone, but basically, I do not know, and I am voting Obama.

Even as Taiwan's market slumps, people continue to write on how wonderful it is. Both of these pieces are pushing it (here and here), but the interesting point here -- aside from calling it "the most exciting stock market in the world right now" -- is that "Tom Dyson" claims to have lunch with someone famous in the industry, "Mr. Cheng":

Mr. Cheng says the opportunity in Taiwan stocks is a "one-in-ten-lifetimes opportunity."

while the piece in the India Times notes:

“The opportunity in Taiwan stocks is one-in-ten-lifetimes. But most people don't realise that commercial relationships between Taiwan and China are booming. Trade between mainland China and Taiwan is expected to reach $150 billion this year,” Suman added.

"One-in-ten lifetimes" occurring two apparently unrelated articles a world apart? The Taiwan index closed at 6307 on Friday, having lost the equivalent of US$300 billion in value since Ma took office, or about 1 year of GDP. Maybe now is the time for a truly smart investor to get in and find bargains, but I have some trouble believing it. AP reports that the government is attempting to soothe voters, but still repeats the utter nonsense that 40,000 people showed up to protest on Aug 30. Ma corrects himself and says the government will aim for 6% growth after four years. Tax reductions are one measure the government is mulling to save the economy. In any case, says FT, the problem is that the Chen investigation will overshadow the economy. Yes, everything is Chen Shui-bian's fault...I hear that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae used to rely on him for policy advice.....

Also on the economic front, the travel industry was calling for greater efforts to stimulate western and Japanese tourism since China tourism has been a bust. Beijing, we hear, is to blame for the bust. Meanwhile, in case you need something to recommend to your buddies from overseas on those freespending nights out, foreign chefs have agreed that braised pork rice is Taiwan's best dish. SHOCKER: how many Chinese tourists are actually coming to Taiwan: Claudia Jean finds an authority who says the daily number is: 37. Most "Chinese" tourists come from Hong Kong and Macau, it appears.

Taiwan's plummeting birthrate (8.9 per 1000 in 2007 vs 15 in 1997) is leading to school closures... rice fossils in Tainan are illuminating the history of rice use in Taiwan. Motorcyclists account for 60% of traffic deaths, and the death rate for unhelmeted drivers is about 8 times that of helmeted.

Perhaps taking office in Japan is the new prime minister, Taro Aso, to be sworn in under the new policy implemented this year under which everyone in Japan gets to be prime minister for 10 minutes. Max Hirsch has the call in the Japan Times:

"Taro Aso," said legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, "staunchly supports Taiwan — if he heads Japan's Cabinet, that should be a boon to Taiwan."

An outspoken conservative, Aso, 67, tends to take a hard line on China and backs Taiwan for its embrace of democracy. The hawk, Wang told reporters, also enjoys strong personal relations with many Taiwanese officials and supports Ma's China-friendly policies.

Everyone expects that Aso is going to be very friendly to Taiwan... Aso also supports the "Taiwanization" of China. Seems to me that is already happening, with both sides appearing to be moving in the direction of Singapore except on a much larger and more complex scale, because of their extensive agricultural hinterlands, complex ethnic issues, and foreign relations. At present, Singapore, not Taiwan, appears to be the ultimate model for "Chinese" democracy -- in the Taiwan case that is going to be flavored with some Japanese elements. Speaking of models and Japan, Japan Focus has a nifty piece on citizenship and subjecthood in the Japanese empire, including some remarks on Taiwan.

Fujian claims to have hosted 9 million Taiwanese since 1987. Also on leisure activities, Taiwan closed its last legal brothel, in Nantou. And here's an article on Taiwan's leisure farms, the back-to-nature equivalent of legalized prostitution.

And totally unrelated to Taiwan, this fascinating glimpse of Fiji's mercenary industry and its relation to US hegemony, Iraq, and local politics in Fiji.

[Taiwan]

Announcements: Politics of Modern Taiwan/Obama Fundraiser

First, Dr Dafydd Fell alerted me to that Rutledge has just been published a great new Taiwan studies resource this summer titled, "Politics of Modern Taiwan." This four volume collection includes 63 of the best and most influential English language articles on Taiwan's domestic politics published in the last two decades. If you think the collection will be useful for you or your students, please do pass this information on to your librarian. Dr Fell says that a book launch for this publication will be held this year in London.[click to be taken to the image's flickr site; my capture, not Dr Fell's]

+++++++++++++++

Democrats Abroad is hosting a fundraiser for the future President Obama. They say:

Please join us in support of Barack Obama as the next President of the United States.

The election is very close and even here in Taiwan, we can help make a difference. Bring your friends and family to El Gallo at No. 42, Chung Shan N. Road, Sec. 7 for dinner on Saturday, September 27 from 7 to 9 pm to hear from the Obama Campaign and celebrate the upcoming election! Giving levels -

* Underwriter - $25,000 NT per couple ($800US)
* Hosts - $15,000 NT per couple ($500US)
* Benefactor - $7,500 NT per couple ($250US)
* Ticket price - $2,500 NT per person ($80US)

Donations will be made at the site using credit cards from individual donors and
will go directly to the campaign.

The Friends of Obama in Taiwan
Hosted by:
Amy and Alec Cooper
Milena and Chris Fay
Carolina and Max Ferran
Sarah and Scott McMullin
Gabrielle and Ken Petersen
Please RSVP to Amy Cooper at acooper@pstrategies.com or 0988062292

[Taiwan]

Our Bottomless stock market

The local Chinese papers had front page stories on our collapsing stock market today, with both the Apple Daily and Chinese Times observing that the 4 day fall in the stock market this week had totaled 633 points -- a sardonic comment on Ma's 6-3-3 promise, which Ma said this week was meant to apply for any time up to the last year of his second term. The Taipei Times reported today:

The Presidential Office yesterday defended President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) “6-3-3” economic policy, saying it was announced before the global economic downturn, that Ma had not abandoned it and that it would apply until 2016.

Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chih (王郁琦) said that the administration would strive to achieve its goals in spite of the global economic slump.

“2016 is the year by which we plan to achieve all three goals. It does not mean that we have to wait until 2016 to accomplish them all,” he said. “As long as the global economy recovers, it is possible that we can achieve some of the goals earlier.”

Wang made the remarks in response to media inquiries about Ma’s comments that his “6-3-3” campaign pledge was unlikely to be realized anytime soon, but he hoped it could be achieved by 2016 — the end of a possible two terms in office.

The “6-3-3” economic policy refers to the goal of achieving annual GDP of 6 percent, average annual earnings of US$30,000 and an unemployment rate of less than 3 percent.

As of this writing, at about 1:00 on the 5th, the market has continued to fall another hundred points or so. The DPP is calling for a cabinet reshuffle, but it is hard to see what a new cabinet can do about the skidding global economy and falling investor confidence. Why did the stock market fall again yesterday? The Taipei Times reported it was due to Ma's comments on his economic promises:

The TAIEX plunged 172.3 points, or 2.61 percent, to close at 6,412.63 on turnover of NT$91.19 billion (US$2.81 billion), Taiwan Stock Exchange data showed.

Analysts attributed the fall chiefly to panic selling by domestic investors after President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said a day earlier that he could not honor his campaign pledge to achieve economic growth of 6 percent and raise annual per capita income to US$30,000 during his four-year term.

Winson Wang (王榮旭), a stock analyst at Marbo Securities Consultant Co (萬寶證券投顧), said foreign fund managers could not be blamed for the market’s bearish performance yesterday, as they sold only NT$7.7 billion in shares.

“Rather, domestic investors calculated it was better to sell their stock now since the government has no intention of fixing the economy in the near future,” Wang said by telephone.

This was followed by calls to lower the corporate income tax and similar moves. Short-term solutions......



Speaking of leadership and taxes, remember when Vincent Hsiao was touted as the experienced economic development specialist who would take us all to the promised land? He's been working on the tax reform that will lower taxes on business. The Ma government has been arguing that the tax regime should be altered, and industry groups have been using the Milton Friedman Foundation as the apparent source of some simpleminded ads (picture above) that claim that low taxes (left) lead to high economy (right). A commentary the other day in the Taipei Times discussed the proposals:

The Chinese National Federation of Industries (CNFI) is running a TV commercial urging tax cuts to stimulate the economy. The federation has spent large sums on propagating spurious theories in a tedious campaign to brainwash the public and pressure the Cabinet’s Tax Reform Committee in an attempt to manipulate the direction of tax reform. Is the commercial telling the truth?

First, it claims that low taxes equal economic growth, and that high taxes equal economic decline. If this theory is correct, shouldn’t tax havens such as the Virgin and Cayman islands be the world’s most developed economies?

The commentary is long, but points out that high-tax environments are coincident with good economic growth and high living standards, and noting that low tax regimes, like the US, are known for high income inequality and rising government debt. It also rebuts claims that Taiwan's taxes are higher than either Singapore's or Hong Kong's. Well worth a read.

[Taiwan]

Daily Links, Sept 4, 2008

Ma save us! Yahoo Taiwan stock behavior, last five years. The local stock market clunked to a two year low yesterday and fell again today. Red dot is the day Savior Ma touched earth Ma was sworn in.

It's been nothing but downhill as Ma's plans for Taiwan have been confounded by the global economic slump. The Ma government can't seem to get a grip on the problems either. It would be more fun watching Ma, the darling of all the financial analysts whose ascension was widely viewed as putting the adults in charge, flounder around, but unfortunately real people are depending on this government to get its act together. Hopefully they can right the ship and get the nation moving forward. Fortunately, as always, the blogosphere has its act together....

The Foreigner has a hilarious post on the Ma Administration's lame excuse for not inviting reporters to watch the latest round of war games.

Fili blogs on Taiwan's street trucks.

Kelake encounters trash on the highway.

Stocks and Politics blogs on how Ma's 6-3-3 promises have changed.

Signs he's seen.

Taiwan's foreign policy, yet another area of Ma failure, is dissected by maddog.

Shorty goes to Fulong beach. Man I remember when you couldn't even walk there, it was so full of garbage.

Taiwan Matters has photos and videos from the 8/30 rally. As does David. The Only Redhead has videos.

Hanjie briefs us on Kaohsiung.

Mark Forman offers us sumptuously textured images in B&W.

The Real Tainan blogs about the possible creation of Tainan Island.

Ian Williams at the World Policy Org blog has yet another piece on Taiwan = Georgia that actually makes sense. Apparently it is possible to write on Taiwan and Georgia without gratuitous hacks on Chen Shui-bian. No, I'm not making that up.

If you don't like Taiwan = Georgia from the Left, perhaps you'll like Taiwan = Israel from the Right.

First Taiwan Strait Crisis, 1954

The Bala Daily has a great post with translation and commentary on China Times defense article.

Hunting in our house. Whip scorpions, which lack a sting in the tail, are a common sight in Taiwan. A couple of days ago we discovered this one scuttling across the carpet by the door(inset). Yesterday the cat was overjoyed to find it lurking along the bookcase. Only timely intervention saved the poor critter.

MEDIA: The August DPP newsletter in English. Pandas due in November. They will merely displace funds that could have gone to caring for local wildlife. The China Post reports that Taiwan has the No 1 and No 5 polluting power plants in the world. Who needs Olympic Gold when you're a world No 1? Taiwanese still flock to China to work (don't miss the gratuitous identity dig). Water pipeline from China to Kinmen considered. KMT central standing committee member Sean Lien, son of KMT Honorary Chairman and two-time presidential election loser Lien Chan, is appointed to the EasyCard board by Taipei Mayor Hau, son of former reactionary KMT prime minister Hao Pei-tsun. Move along folks, there's no nepotism to see here. The Jamestown Foundation has a couple of nifty articles, including one on the Georgia conflict seen from Beijing and Taiwan's scrapping of the missiles amidst "warming ties."

ESPECIALLY STooPID: Don't miss this totally asinine letter from Mike Shen (scroll down to second letter) in the Taipei Times the other day, which states that Chen "literally destroyed" the Taiwan economy (2007 growth: 5.7%) and that you shouldn't drink tea or use chopsticks if you don't want to be Chinese. Since I use chopsticks and drink tea, I guess I must be Chinese. That must be why I've been feeling uncontrollable urges lately to write letters to the Taipei Times saying that they are hurting the feelings of the great Chinese people. Really, letters this bad are little more than dog-whistles.....

CHEN AGAIN: Former head of the investigation bureau Yeh Sheng-mao says he gave documents from money laundering monitoring organizations to Chen. That's got to be a criminal act....

Hunting in our house. I caught this wolf spider, alert and hunting, as it lunged for a tick clinging to the wall of our house. The tick escaped by the simple expedient of falling off the wall.

EVENTS: Harvard Kennedy School hosting an event discussing China-Taiwan relations in the Ma era. The event is entitled "50 Ways to Say Capitulation" "China-Taiwan Relations After the 2008 Taiwan Presidential Elections." On the 9th, Tsai Ing-wen is speaking at the Heritage Foundation from 3:30 to 4:30. This event will have a live feed, if you feel like rising at 3:30 am to see it. Saturday Heritage Scholar and fierce Taiwan supporter John Tkacik is holding court at the meet up (link on sidebar) in Taipei.

ANNOUNCEMENTS: Amazingly, I am actually in the running for a Taiwan political blog award from the Dr. Peng Ming-min foundation, thanks to a loyal reader who submitted my blog. Fili has the announcement and directions on how to vote, and if you scroll way down my sidebar, there are instructions too. I'm a little embarrassed (OK, deeply embarrassed) to announce this, since I don't like pimping myself, but there is a financial reward, and Mrs. Pudgy Balding Blogger has been pestering me with annoying questions, like how my children are going to eat in November, and how we're going to fit the TV in our new cardboard house on the street. If you vote, please do not vote more than once.

Enjoy 1:30 of Taiwan countryside as seen from the HSR flying by at 250 kph. Sure wish the HSR company would wash the windows once in a while!

[Taiwan]

Election Registration for US Citizens Coming Up Quickly

Get out the vote! AIT wants to remind you (and you all in Taichung) that the time for registering for the November vote is coming up fast. From their website:

This is a reminder to U.S. citizens of voting age that individual state and territory voter-registration deadlines for the November elections are coming up fast. AIT strongly encourages all U.S. citizens residing in Taiwan to vote in all U.S. elections in which they’re eligible. Applications for all U.S. voting districts are available online at www.fvap.gov (Federal Voting Assistance Program). This interactive website guides users through registration by mail and provides complete state-specific instructions. In addition, our staff members in the American Citizen Services unit are available to answer your questions and provide relevant resources. Please write to VoteTaipei@state.gov with specific questions.

本處想在此提醒已達投票年齡的美國公民, 對於11月大選, 各州及地區的登記投票截止日即將到來. 美國在台協會熱切地鼓勵所有居住在台灣的美國公民, 能夠於有資格參加的各美國選舉中投票. 全美各投票區的申請書可以在網站 www.fvap.gov ( 聯邦投票服務中心) 上取得. 此互動式網頁會引導使用者如何郵寄投票登記及提供各州的詳細指示. 除此之外, 我們美國公民服務組同仁也會協助回答您的問題及提供相關資訊. 請將您的問題寄到 VoteTaipei@state.gov.

Get right on it!

[Taiwan]

Feeling the FEER

On Saturday I met some friends beneath the great gate of Nameinflux Hall.... UPDATE: forget it. I'm wrong.

Also in the news, Taipei has dropped plans for missiles that can hit Shanghai. The missiles were deemed necessary to enable Taiwan to strike China's bases on the coast opposite Taiwan.

Finally, since all news is ominous news today, let's take a look at this piece in the Far Eastern Economic Review posted yesterday. Entitled.....

Georgia's Lessons for Taiwan
by Jeffrey Bader and and Douglas Paal

....it is one more in a number of pieces that have attempted to extract lessons from the Georgia mess. The first interesting thing here is the authors: Jeff Bader, longtime China specialist with many government positions, is an advisor to the Obama campaign, rumored to be one possible author of the letter from Obama to Ma Ying-jeou. He also works for Stonebridge International, which advises US corporations on how to enter China (see this great piece by Ken Silverstein in Harpers last month).

We last heard from Douglas Paal on election day. A former AIT director appointed to the position (he didn't come up through the diplomatic service) Paal was widely held to detest the DPP and Chen Shui-bian. On election day this year he showed up to stage a dog-n-pony show for the KMT about Ma Ying-jeou's green card. Naturally, the FEER article contains the usual gratuitous hacks on Chen Shui-bian:

2) Don't provoke the bear, or the dragon, expecting the eagle to fly to the rescue. Georgia's President Saakashvili has shown a propensity for statements and actions that seems to say to the United States and Russia, "Let the two of you fight over me." His goal has seemed to be to encourage the United States and Russia to see Georgia as the target of a zero-sum security game and to appeal to the U.S. conscience to back him up. Taiwan's former president Chen Shui-bian took the same approach to the triangular relationship among Taiwan, the United States, and China. The result in Saakashvili's case has been to leave his troops alone to face an angered Russian military. In Chen's case, it led to heightened cross-Strait tensions, but in Taiwan's case, the United States showed wisdom and took issue with Chen and his provocative behavior and withdrew its support.

What really happened, as readers of this blog know, is that Chen's "provocative" behavior was the result of a sustained campaign to discredit Chen's actions and suppress Taiwan's international space by China. Thus China was "provoked" whenever Chen took action in the international sphere to expand Taiwan's presence or promote an independent foreign policy. This policy of "being provoked" by Taiwan's democracy was highly successful, and as Bader and Paal approvingly note, eventually the US even took the lead in helping China to attack Taiwan's advocacy of its own international space. It was a sad moment for US foreign relations..... I also love the way that the article says Chen did the same thing as Saakashvili in "provoking" the Great Power next door -- except, of course, that Saakashvili launched an unprovoked attack on South Ossetia that involved mass killing of civilians and attacks on Russian peacekeepers there. Yes, that's right -- closing the National Unification Council is politically equivalent to shelling civilians.

Another hack occurs later on...

4) Geography matters. Small nations near large powers should not forget who their neighbors are. Cuba has not prospered through its 50 years of defiance of the United States. Taiwan's newly elected President Ma Ying-jeou seems to understand well that an improved relationship between Taiwan and China is essential to Taiwan's future security. In the absence of unambiguous security commitments from the United States, such as those enjoyed by countries like Japan, small states might best seek a balance to the strongest possible U.S. commitment to their defense and survival, hedged by a non-hostile relationship with their big power neighbor. Taiwan's example shows that prosperity and full-blown democracy can find their way in a tyrannical shadow.

Here Bader and Paal stand reality on its head. As we know, the DPP well knew that improved relations with China are essential to Taiwan's future security, which is why the party repeatedly offered to talk to Beijing, including peace talks. That is why they legalized China investment, set up exchange programs, negotiated on contacts ranging from direct flights to tourism, and so on. The problem was not the DPP, but China's consistent rejection of talks. Since Ma does not insist on either democracy or sovereignty for Taiwan, it is easy to see why China is willing to talk with him -- note that Bader and Paal simply ignore the fact that the real issue is differing views of sovereignty, not differing views of the need for good relations with China. A remark grossly unfair to the DPP and its foreign policy unit.

The advice is all good advice, of course; it's the intepretation of history that's the interesting part. And of course, the appearance of a connection between the Obama camp and Paal.

MEDIA NOTE: The article's endnote reads:

Mr. Bader is director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Paal is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Observe that the article does not mention that Bader has business interests in China, nor that he is affiliated with the Obama camp (from what I've heard, corrections welcome). Paal used to be a V-P for JP Morgan after leaving the American Institute in Taiwan. Interestingly, Paal's Carnegie Endowment for Peace page on him does not mention that. Paal worked in the Bush, Reagan, Carter, and Ford Administrations, and was once a senior official for Asia in the National Security Council. The blurb at the end in fact is an excellent example of Ken Silverstein's remark in his excellent Harper's piece...

In 2005, Bader joined the Brookings Institution, and invariably this is the affiliation cited when he publishes op-eds or delivers speeches. Hence, readers and listeners must imagine that Bader is a neutral, impartial observer.....

[Taiwan]

Today's moment of humor: PHD student complaint about CCU

The China Post published this priceless story yesterday in which a foreign PHD student at a local university was supposedly recorded in class and then later chased out of the program:

Alred, a U.S. citizen living in Taiwan, applied to the Ph.D. program of the Department of Political Science at National Chung Cheng University in October 2007.

He submitted all the required documents that included a 25-page research proposal and a statement clearly explaining that he did not speak or understand Chinese.

After the school's Office of International Student Affairs confirmed that international graduate studies did not require the students to speak or understand Chinese, he was officially admitted to the program after completing all the necessary steps in December 2007.

Yet he was rapidly disenchanted with his studies.

On February 20, he immediately was faced with a thorny issue as the professor of one the program's mandatory courses, Dr. Lee Pei-shan, only spoke to him in English during the opening minutes of the course, then switched to Chinese for the next hour.

After meeting with her and expressing his desire to learn and study in her class, he told The China Post that he was "coldly dismissed."

"When I again expressed in the following class that I could not understand Chinese above the most basic level, she clearly stated: 'That is not my problem,'" he recalled.

Following that event, Alred explained that he asked Dr. Liao Kun-jung, professor and chairperson of the Department of Political Science, to act as a go-between to try to work out an agenda with Lee, but to no avail.

Lee reportedly stated that she "refused to teach him."

During Alred's third class, Lee's husband, another professor in the physics department at the school, was unexpectedly present in the classroom with a recording device, while Lee directed several questions to him in Chinese and "sat broadly smiling in front of the class," he remembered.

"They had conspired to set me up so they could rationalize their misconduct to the university officials," he went on. "They hoped I would have reacted inappropriately in the class while I was being embarrassed because they were recording it."

Not only that, but suspiciously, the school's Wiki entry has been modified with the tale, the only bit of history in its HISTORY section...UPDATE: see comment on this below.

2008 foreign student scandal

In 2008, the university's political science department received media attention for its treatment of an American doctoral student, William Terry Alred. Alred had stated in his application that he could not speak or understand Chinese, and was accepted into the program. Conflict occurred when one of his professors (whose course was required) refused to teach him in English,...

Wonder how long that will stay up. As a current PHD student in Taiwan, I can't really comment on the particulars of the story. This has not been my experience at all, though, at NCKU, in the Business Department, with about 8 other foreign students from Indonesia, Vietnam, and elsewhere.

[Taiwan]

Taipei Times editorial and International Media

The Taipei Times editorialized today on the international media, channeling me:

Leaving behind eight long years of skewed reporting on former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), who for some news agencies was the agent provocateur par excellence, who never failed to “anger” and “provoke” Beijing, or “alienate” Washington with his “extremism” and “separatism,” the post-Chen era promised to bring with it a sea change in reporting on Taiwan and its new president, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).

At long last, the elected leader of Taiwan was “charismatic” and “Harvard-educated,” the epitome of “pragmatism” who was seeking to make “peace” with long-time “rival” China. During the presidential election, many agencies threw their supposed journalistic neutrality out the window and unashamedly supported Ma and the KMT by trumpeting the promises of an immediate fix to the economy that the previous government under Chen had “mismanaged.”

I've abused that kind of fawning reportage of Ma before, but it is nice to see the Taipei Times doing it again too. They then went on to point out:

It is no surprise, therefore, that some news agencies’ coverage of the rally on Saturday misrepresented the event, with at least two different agencies reporting that tens of thousands of “separatists” were protesting against Ma’s efforts to improve relations with China. Not only was this characterization wrong, but it was dangerous, as it implied that Taiwanese — or at least the “separatists” — are against peace, which couldn’t be further from the truth.

Aside from the perhaps impatient discontent with the KMT administration’s handling of the economy and the failure of Ma to live up to his promises, what the tens of thousands of Taiwanese who rallied on Saturday were protesting was the speed at which he has sought rapprochement with Beijing and the long series of concessions he has made to achieve this, with no apparent sign of reciprocity on China’s part.

It is not difficult to find out which agencies those were. One was DPA (Deutsche Press-Agentur) which has a long and dishonorable history of apparent pro-China reporting on Taiwan, as I've remarked before on this blog:

Tens of thousands of Taiwan separatists marched through Taipei Saturday to protest President Ma Ying-jeou's pro-China policy and the island's economic woes.

Holding placards and shouting slogans, the demonstrators marched through the main streets in Taipei and held a rally in front of the Presidential Office Building to mark 100 days since Ma took office.

DPA also said that:

Several public opinion polls have shown that while most Taiwanese support Ma's seeking peace with China, between 30-40 per cent of Taiwanese are dissatisfied with the economy.

Note how this construction works. The protesters are "separatists" -- a loaded political word that assumes Taiwan is part of China -- and the DPA adopts Ma's position on the KMT's actions -- they are peace-seeking (not capitulationist). This would make the anti-Ma position the anti-peace-seeking position, which is of course absurd. The pro-independence and the pro-China sides both want peace -- the independence side, a peace among equals; the pro-China side, peace through capitulation. Tsai Ing-wen's characterization of the KMT's position on China as "I've stopped struggling, please don't beat me anymore," is quite apt.

On a positive note, the report does term Ma's KMT the "China-friendly" party, which I suspect in DPA's hands is a term of approbation. On the whole I hope that DPA will find more neutral language to describe the political positions of both the KMT and its opponents (the Saudis also appear to be among the many that have used this report, showing how the propaganda is catapulted all over the world by the wire services).

The DPA also repeats the falsehood that there were 40,000 people present, citing the police. AP also cited the police for the 40K estimate -- but the police supposedly stopped providing such estimates 4 years ago. Now that the KMT is back, it seems the policy has changed. Anyone can view the numerous pictures on the internet that show far more than 40,000 marched yesterday (see my discussion below).

[Taiwan]

Chen Again

Lawrence Chung in the SCMP makes an interesting point about Chen Shui-bian, one I was making a couple of weeks ago when the money-laundering story broke:

Although the loyalists said the DPP's participation had nothing to do with supporting Mr Chen, some party bosses said they would not join it because they were afraid it would turn into a rally of support for him. Mr Chen, meanwhile, released a sensational statement on Thursday, asking supporters to join the anti-Ma protest, a statement political observers said was aimed at shifting the focus and turning the probe against him and his family into an independence issue. "There have been all kinds of mud-slinging, distortions of facts and smears against me and my family, all aiming to destroy our reputation," he said, adding that the bribe-taking accusation by the KMT was a kind of political persecution aimed at "totally eradicating the Taiwan-centric consciousness".

Baseless allegations from the KMT and some broadcasters have only served to back up Mr Chen's claim that the KMT is persecuting him. "As long as he wins sympathy from 10 per cent of supporters, the DPP will be forced to side with him," political commentator Antonio Chiang wrote in Apple Daily. Legal experts said that without substantial proof of money-laundering, it would be extremely difficult for the judicial authorities to lock Mr Chen up.

"Chen Shui-bian is smart enough to know that it would be impossible for him to earn US$21 million during his eight years in office and thus he declared the funds were left over from previous campaign donations," said law expert Fan Li-tai. As such, Mr Chen would only be guilty of failing to declare his assets, punishable by a fine of up to NT$300,000. "Prosecutors have to find evidence showing the funds were laundered in order to charge the ex-president," he said.

Experts said it could be easier for prosecutors to collect evidence to charge Mr Chen with embezzlement over a special state fund, the case for which his wife is being tried. In their 2006 indictment against Wu, prosecutors said they had enough evidence to charge Mr Chen with the same crime but for his presidential immunity at the time.

While the presentation by the SCMP more or less assumes Chen's money laundering guilt, it does make a couple of substantial points. Note that (1) it will be hard to convict Chen of money laundering (where is the money trail back to government funds?) and (2) the fine for not revealing assets is ridiculously low. For US$20 million in unreported assets Chen pays a US$9,000 fine. Politics -- nice work if you can get it.

Navigating the issue Chen's reaction of wrapping himself in the Taiwan independence flag is more difficult. There's no question that Chen has abused that, but there is also no question that the KMT is out to get Greens using the legal apparatus, and no question that Chen was an especial target of their wrath. The problem with Chen's approach is that it plays into the KMT claim that Chen is somehow representative of the independence movement.

Fortunately the rally on Saturday demonstrated that Chen's problems are merely a pimple on the face of Taiwan history. Taiwan News editorialized on the rally, observing:

The force of Saturday's rally shows that a sizable core of "Taiwan-centric" citizens have moved beyond "star politics" and are able to make their own value judgements and focus on present and future challenges instead of being obsessed with the past.

Moreover, the themes designed by the Taiwan Society, in consultation with other Taiwan-centric groups and the DPP, struck a resounding chord with tens of thousands of Taiwan people by spotlighting the greatest worries spawned by the Ma government and highlighted their desire for a return to a "Taiwan-centric" course of economic development with social justice, renewed defense of Taiwan's sovereignty and the right of self-determination and to cleanse our political system of all types of corruption through legislative and institutional reform.

The evident success of the "People's Outcry" alliance to manifest "the power of civil society" with the DPP playing a supporting role without the distraction of ambitious"stars" opens the way for the rebuilding of a progressive and reasoned "united front" among Taiwan-centric and civic reform and social movement groups to "monitor" the KMT regime.

Finally, the rally meaningfully highlighted a long overdue theme that the Taiwan people should accept their responsibility as "citizens" to take control over their own destiny and pay their own way in the struggle to defend their right of self-determination and economic, social and political human rights and not depend on the "goodwill" of "stars" or other authorities.

Chen was not a presence at the rally, which instead focused on Taiwan, Ma's rapid moves to put the island into China's orbit, and the economy. Taiwan News further observes:

Moreover, the KMT has failed to realize that its "great China mentality" is out of kilter with Taiwan's mainstream public opinion, only 10 percent of whom support unification and 65 percent want tighter controls on cross-strait trade and economic intercourse, as shown by a poll of 1,065 Taiwan adults released by the official Mainland Affairs Council Thursday.

With the global economy tanking, it will be interesting to watch how Ma handles the economic pain Taiwan is likely to experience. More will have to be done than free trade zones (the eternal panacea) and attempting to get consumers to spend. Note that voters are not very tolerant -- for all the complaints about collapse and lack of food, etc, the economy will still grow over 4% this year. What would they do if there was an actual recession with negative growth for two consecutive quarters?

And let's not forget: China has rejected Ma's attempt to gain concessions by the "diplomatic truce" which essentially amounts to foregoing independent, positive diplomacy. Mayhap things will change, but for now, it appears Ma is faltering on every front.

[Taiwan]

Next Meet Up and Other Stuff

First, before the meet up information.... a friend of mine is moving to the US to do a PHD and is getting rid of all sorts of stuff -- books, clothing, videos, and so on. I have placed the list she gave me on my backup site. Her full explanation and contact information are there. Buy it up!

The next meet up is Saturday, and Jerome has the full information:

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Speaker: John Tkacik A Senior Research Fellow in Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation in Wash. DC; John is a retired diplomat and well-versed in US policy to China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.

Venue: Same place we have used in past couple of months. The meeting location is the restaurant 婷婷翠玉 at 174 AnHe Road, Section Two. (rough translation of name is Tender, Pretty Green Jade.) You will be able to tell the restaurant by the lace curtains on the window--it was used in a TV commercial a while back. (We will have the downstairs room--breakfast cost will range between NT$100 and NT$150. Phone if lost 2736-8510.

Restaurant is between Far Eastern Plaza Mall/Hotel and HePing East Road--about a half a block north of the corner of HePing East Road Sec. 3 and AnHe Road. or a half a block south of Far Eastern Plaza on the AnHe Road side.

Take the MRT Mucha Line to the Liuchangli Station exit there, and walk west on HePing East Road 3/4 of a block till you reach where AnHe Road dead-ends into it.Then go north on AnHe Road; it is a half a block up on the west side of that street.

Or take any bus down HePing East Road and get off at the first stop that is east of Tun Hua South Road. That will put you at the corner of HePing and AnHe.

You can also take a bus down Tun Hua South Road to the stop right across from Far Eastern Plaza and walk over to AnHe Road.

Or if you take the 235 bus east, it turns off of HePing onto AnHe Road and the first stop is right across from the restaurant.

TIME: 9:30 am

Jerome says he'd like an RSVP (jeromekphd@gmail.com)

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[Taiwan]

How many were at the rally?

I've decided to discuss the numbers again because the topic is so interesting and to help think about how many really were there.

First, a Taipei Times report from two years ago discusses a simple methodology for calculating crowd size.

Lin Ming-hua (林明華), director of the city police's Public Relations Department, said that they stopped giving out estimates of crowd sizes or marches two years ago when a march organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People First Party was staged in front of the Presidential Office.

The demonstration was orchestrated to demand the "truth" about the election-eve assassination attempt, which many pan-blue supporters believe was staged by Chen despite any solid evidence to back up their theories.

Lin said that the city police originally refused to publicize the number of participants in Satur-day's rally on Ketagalan Boulevard, but they were told by the police chief at around 10:45pm to make it public.

Lin said that the official numbers were reliable because they were calculated using a formula.

Taking Friday's "siege" march as an example, Lin said that police estimated 40,000 people could fill 1km of the road that protesters walked down. As the march stretched more than 5.5km, the police estimated that about 220,000 people were on the street. On top of that number, city authorities figured that about 140,000 more were scattered along Ketagalan Boulevard and elsewhere, making the total number 360,000.

Two key points from this. First, the police say it is 40K to a kilometer on a street. I'm not sure about the size of the street, but that's comparable to my count from the other day, so I am greatly cheered.

Second, this article notes that the police stopped giving crowd estimates four years ago. So how did AP obtain a "police said" estimate of 40,000? It is possible that someone gave out information they were not supposed to, or that policy was contravened in this instance, both of which have happened before. But that estimate is so laughably low it stinks of a deliberate plant. It should be noted that the Taipei Times reported that the police would not give out an estimate. Even the KMT-supporting China Post had 50,000 people, a number not referenced and suspiciously, exactly half the DPP prediction -- almost a concession that in fact more than 100,000 turned out.

So AP, you got some 'splaining to do.

The pro-KMT side might deflate the numbers, but the pan-Greens are no better. The Liberty Times today dramatically reported that 300,000 people showed up. Check out the photo there. It is highly suspicious -- showing only the crowds from the south gate to the stage -- but on the ground, my photos show that the area to the south and east of the gate was precisely where the crowd thinned out -- and is the area not shown in the photos. Very suspicious. Note that it is still light when this photo is taken.

What would three hundred thousand or more look like? Here's a Taipei Times photo from the truly stupendous anti-secession law rally. See how jam-packed the area is? Google image search will give you more but they will all show that it was an unbelievable sea of humanity that day.

Now compare the dense ranks in the photo above to this CNA photo printed in today's Taipei Times:



If you look carefully, the density starts to peter out once you get past the south gate. It's far denser on the other side. It is easy to see that 300K is an inflated overestimate.

I'm not going to beat this dead horse any longer, but it should also be noted that the CNA photos don't have times attached. The marchers seemed to have already arrived in both the Liberty Times and the Taipei Times pics, and thus spread out near the old gate. In my photos the bulk of the marchers are still arriving, in my opinion. I should also like to add that there is no need to embellish the numbers. Leave that to the other side.

On to the videos. I shot two that were worth anything (yes, video is an art and I suck at it; be patient, it is going to be a long time).

This video I shot after we had started to line up to march but before we started moving. You can see that it was noisy and energetic, that there were thousands of people here, covering the sidewalks, the metro station plaza, etc.

This second video I shot right after we had arrived at the stage. You can see where we are. At this point the area between the stage and the old gate is absolutely packed but starts to thin out as the crowd reaches the old gate. You can get some glimpses of the massive crowd behind me. Plenty of good energy here.

Why is it so hard to get good estimates? Take this photo to the left. How wide is the crowd? How many to a rank? What constitutes a rank? Ok, let's say we're 40K to the kilometer in the street.....







...then what about these marchers -- four and five across on the sidewalks? If you only count the street, as you would certainly do in an photo from the sky, you'd have a 20% undercount, at least. I tried to include them, and that's how I came up with 50K with me. Depending on how you count, a rank had anywhere between 16 and 25 people, so conservatively 7 ranks was 100 souls, but in reality it was sometimes a lot less and sometimes a lot more. And then....


...what about these blackshirted fellows and the hundreds of others participating by yelling and waving flags from the sidelines, but not marching? Do we count them?








Here was another problem we encountered, though I don't really have a good picture of it. I started near the front of the march, but by the time we were halfway through, the march had elongated considerably and I was someone in the middle. People started to join from the front. You can see that it extends for a considerable distance in front of me.




As we walked down this large street, we look a little thinner in this photo, but actually, there are even more of us. Why?








As this important historical photo shows, large numbers of marchers "taking to the streets" are actually taking to the expansive sidewalks.








Another issue is resting marchers. You can see that in the park beyond many marchers are taking a break, as they did all along the way. Again, any count of "marchers" underestimates the crowd.







When you look at the photos by the old gate, you see the fantastic crowds, but you don't see these guys -- the ones sitting on the walls, standing on the sidewalks, and sitting in the park under the trees.

Finally, what is the correct time to sample the size? I can tell you how many I think marched with me (50K give or take) and you can look at the photos to see how many were there when I arrived. Is that the right time? Do we count only those who stayed the whole time to hear the speakers?

You tell me. But not all the crowd estimates are off by large percentages because the police are nefarious and controlled by the Dark Side. It's because counting the crowd is no simple task.

UPDATE: A commenter left this link to another discussion of the crowd numbers. It goes into great detail on the area that the crowd occupied and concludes:

就算一平方公尺以 4 人計算，新公園內的也不算、信義路與仁愛路上頭的也都不算。也不必以一平方 6人來高估。至少也都有 13 萬人了。
真不知官方的 4 萬多人是怎麼算的。

We calculate the one square meter contains 4 people, and we don't count the New Park, Hsinyi Rd, Aiguo Rd. We don't need to use the highest figure of 6 people per square meter. There were at least 130,000 people there.
I really don't know how the authorities arrived at a figure of 40,000.

That's similar to the number I arrived at. 50,000 with me, a like number in the other group, and 30-40K already present when I arrived. Then I factored in all the people in the park and elsewhere. Nevertheless, 130K is a nice conservative figure.

[Taiwan]