It's been nothing but downhill as Ma's plans for Taiwan have been confounded by the global economic slump. The Ma government can't seem to get a grip on the problems either. It would be more fun watching Ma, the darling of all the financial analysts whose ascension was widely viewed as putting the adults in charge, flounder around, but unfortunately real people are depending on this government to get its act together. Hopefully they can right the ship and get the nation moving forward. Fortunately, as always, the blogosphere has its act together....
The Foreigner has a hilarious post on the Ma Administration's lame excuse for not inviting reporters to watch the latest round of war games. Fili blogs on Taiwan's street trucks. Kelake encounters trash on the highway. Stocks and Politics blogs on how Ma's 6-3-3 promises have changed. Signs he's seen. Taiwan's foreign policy, yet another area of Ma failure, is dissected by maddog. Shorty goes to Fulong beach. Man I remember when you couldn't even walk there, it was so full of garbage. Taiwan Matters has photos and videos from the 8/30 rally. As does David. The Only Redhead has videos. Hanjie briefs us on Kaohsiung. Mark Forman offers us sumptuously textured images in B&W. The Real Tainan blogs about the possible creation of Tainan Island. Ian Williams at the World Policy Org blog has yet another piece on Taiwan = Georgia that actually makes sense. Apparently it is possible to write on Taiwan and Georgia without gratuitous hacks on Chen Shui-bian. No, I'm not making that up. If you don't like Taiwan = Georgia from the Left, perhaps you'll like Taiwan = Israel from the Right. First Taiwan Strait Crisis, 1954 The Bala Daily has a great post with translation and commentary on China Times defense article.
MEDIA: The August DPP newsletter in English. Pandas due in November. They will merely displace funds that could have gone to caring for local wildlife. The China Post reports that Taiwan has the No 1 and No 5 polluting power plants in the world. Who needs Olympic Gold when you're a world No 1? Taiwanese still flock to China to work (don't miss the gratuitous identity dig). Water pipeline from China to Kinmen considered. KMT central standing committee member Sean Lien, son of KMT Honorary Chairman and two-time presidential election loser Lien Chan, is appointed to the EasyCard board by Taipei Mayor Hau, son of former reactionary KMT prime minister Hao Pei-tsun. Move along folks, there's no nepotism to see here. The Jamestown Foundation has a couple of nifty articles, including one on the Georgia conflict seen from Beijing and Taiwan's scrapping of the missiles amidst "warming ties."
ESPECIALLY STooPID: Don't miss this totally asinine letter from Mike Shen (scroll down to second letter) in the Taipei Times the other day, which states that Chen "literally destroyed" the Taiwan economy (2007 growth: 5.7%) and that you shouldn't drink tea or use chopsticks if you don't want to be Chinese. Since I use chopsticks and drink tea, I guess I must be Chinese. That must be why I've been feeling uncontrollable urges lately to write letters to the Taipei Times saying that they are hurting the feelings of the great Chinese people. Really, letters this bad are little more than dog-whistles.....
CHEN AGAIN: Former head of the investigation bureau Yeh Sheng-mao says he gave documents from money laundering monitoring organizations to Chen. That's got to be a criminal act....
EVENTS: Harvard Kennedy School hosting an event discussing China-Taiwan relations in the Ma era. The event is entitled
ANNOUNCEMENTS: Amazingly, I am actually in the running for a Taiwan political blog award from the Dr. Peng Ming-min foundation, thanks to a loyal reader who submitted my blog. Fili has the announcement and directions on how to vote, and if you scroll way down my sidebar, there are instructions too. I'm a little embarrassed (OK, deeply embarrassed) to announce this, since I don't like pimping myself, but there is a financial reward, and Mrs. Pudgy Balding Blogger has been pestering me with annoying questions, like how my children are going to eat in November, and how we're going to fit the TV in our new cardboard house on the street. If you vote, please do not vote more than once.
Enjoy 1:30 of Taiwan countryside as seen from the HSR flying by at 250 kph. Sure wish the HSR company would wash the windows once in a while!
[Taiwan]
24 comments:
Those sure are some interesting critters you live amongst -
I did have to laugh about the 6-3-3 announcement. I find it terribly convenient for a politician to announce just after he got elected that he cannot fulfill his campaign promises, but that he might be able to by the end of his term in eight years.
And don't forget Ma's interview with the Mexican mag where he says that state-to-state relations don't exist.
Tell me, is he running a race against himself to see how many promises he can break in the shortest amount of time?
Personally, I am losing my patience with this sort of stuff. As I am not on the ground, I need someone.... anyone.... to tell me that Taiwanese have noticed this sort of thing.
Funny how "Mike" Shen -- from New York -- is talking about what it means to be "Chinese."
"Dog whistles" is right! My whole brain hurt when I read that.
Mike wrote:
- - -
[Let me remind Lee [Min-yung (李敏勇), the writer whose letter he is responding to] that if he really believes in independence and is so ashamed of his Chinese ancestry, then he should change his name, because Lee is Chinese.
- - -
So, does that mean that Christopher Lee is Chinese, too? No wonder they tapped him for the role of Fu Manchu.
Hey, wait a minute! Maybe "Mike" is pinyin, and Shen's real name is 神秘客!
Regarding the Financial Times article, I wonder it the author is aware that China is a mere part of "mainland" Asia and that going from Taiwan to South Korea, for example, is also going to the "mainland."
Michael, I voted for ya in the blog awards competition. Now, where's my red envelope? 紅包拿來！
Tim Maddog
Re Shen letter in Taipei Times:
Taiwan is an INDUSTRIAL democracy?
This guy's been using using bleached chopsticks too long.
Michael,
Chen destroyed Taiwan economy because he destroy the trust that a capitalist system relays on similar to out current banking problem in the US (we should let several of our current big banks fail because they have misplace our trust; if not, we will be like Japan). Chen destroyed Taiwan's system by pulling strings on the side as long as to contribute to his CAUSE (hint hint)!
As far as GDP goes, the greater positive GDP growth of Taiwan for the past few years are due to negative CPI deflector which is unheard of in the modern economic times. I am not about to say that Taiwan's GDP figures are fudged but I will call an imperfect measurement :). Almost 6000 and we still have few months to go!
Tsai only gets an hour at the Heritage Foundation? What an insult. Back in 02, the Heritage Foundation gave Ahmed Chalabi almost an entire day to present the case for US support of the pro-democracy movement in Iraq.
Despite the fact nearly every political statement regarding Taiwan on this blog is wrong, I will vote for this site based on your incredible dedication to this medium. If only I could find some pro-blue blogger with the same dedication then I would be truly happy.
Go get PMM's money because appling for a grant from the Wu Shu Chen Swiss/Cayman TI Promotion Fund will be too risky now.
Hi Michael,
I read your comments on the news of "Taiwan's Ex-Security Chief Accused of Hiding Presidential Cash Scheme" on Washington Post a few days ago, while I was posting my opinion on the same news. I am a Taiwanese American currently living in Washington DC suburb. Thank you for supporting Taiwan.
dcdc
"...and Mrs. Pudgy Balding Blogger has been pestering me with annoying questions, like how my children are going to eat in November, and how we're going to fit the TV in our new cardboard house on the street."
I take this is a joke, right? What is happening with your job? Hope this is really a joke and all is going well with your work and finance. You don't want any money-hungry, mad-as-hell Mrs. Taiwanese nagging on you...that is a worse fate than being ruled by Communist China.. (this is a joke!!:)
"Do as We Say, Not as We Do" Department:
I. "The Taipei City Government called off its annual outdoor barbeque fair for Mid-Autumn Festival next week over environmental concerns and urged residents to limit their barbeque activities to 11 designated riverside parks."
II. "The results of the latest survey by the Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) sho was that Taichung and Mailiao coal-fired power plants are the world's No. 1 and No. 5 in terms of power plant carbon dioxide emissions, respectively, casting a shadow over the government's energy saving and carbon-reducing policies."
Michael, I voted for ya in the blog awards competition. Now, where's my red envelope? 紅包拿來！
Sorry man, I already sent all the money to Switzerland!
e greater positive GDP growth of Taiwan for the past few years are due to negative CPI deflector which is unheard of in the modern economic times.
Don't worry, man, i've long wondered about the CPI figures here, as have many people I know. The US too -- inflation strikes me as grossly underestimated. But negative CPI deflator is possible depending on which year is chosen for the base year. Can you guide me to a link on the negative CPI?
Despite the fact nearly every political statement regarding Taiwan on this blog is wrong,
Well, look at it this way: at least I'm consistent!
Thanks for the vote. And the comment. If my readers don't correct me, I can't change. One advantage of blogging is that you can change your mind about things. I'm wrong quite a bit here and get corrected. Another advantage of dialogue that mainstream news lacks.
NotBlueNotGreen, yes it is a joke. I hope...
Michael
Can you guide me to a link on the negative CPI?
I have posted the link before, it is the official stats from the Taiwan government...
http://eng.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=18024&ctNode=3567
Click on the price and see its contribution to the GDP...negative values in chart 2 are actually positive gain in the GDP. Or you can look at the differences between the gross vs real. Populist destroys a country's economy, and you can quote me on this.
I don't even know what economists call this...I mean, it is opposite of stagflation but it is definitely abnormal and probably not good.
(Disclaimer- Just my personal opinion about investment and stock market.)
The first two rules of thumb for short term traders (who go on 100% margin are:) "buy on the rumor sell on the news" and "buy on fear sell on greed". March to May was precisely the time to sell Taiwan stocks- all the good news was out & the global economy was starting to show signs of trouble!! For long-term investors: just buy stocks with great fundamentals, great management, earning potentials, $ cost average and based your long term financial goals. INGORE the day to day market move if you are in for the long term.
Any investor who bought stocks based purely on any financial analyst recommendation or any politician's election promise is asking for trouble. In 2000 to 2001, so many American investors got burned big time buying internet stocks, because some star analysts like Henry Blodget told the investor to throw EPS out of the window!! Profit didn't matter anymore; just count the "eyeballs" and people actually believed that- insane!
More recently, Goldman Sachs even released a report in May suggesting that the price of crude oil could reach as high as $150 to $200 a barrel!! That was when I made a contra move when oil did hit $150 a barrel in July and bought CAL and AMR! Yes, short-term oil did go to $150 in July, but the fundamental didn't even support oil @ $130 a barrel! And I knew some people did buy into oil future, because Goldman Sach's report!!
Investors only have themselves to blame if they go on insane margin and have to keep selling their positions at lower and lower price in order to cover their margin call!! Another problem with Taiwanese investors is that too many trade on emotions and word of mouths.
Ma should focus on setting economic policies and make investments for the future so that when the global market recovers Taiwan will be ready to beneift and go with the ride. Ma should not care and should never have commented how many points the stock market will go up or down yesterday, today or tomorrow or next months during the election! I hope he learned his lesson.
Add a few more links of interest:
1. 38 second animation of a possible CERN black hole (note, the Large Hadron Collider goes online Sep10).
2. A fascinating 10 min explanation blackholes by Michio Kaku: From Universe to Multiverse. Are You Ready (string theory stuff ~ he basically explains, in layman's terms, what is on the other side of the universe.)
3. A pro-Taiwan Gordon Chang interview from Nov07. Still timely.
4. An article in yesterday's NYTimes: China’s Central Bank Is Short of Capital
P.S. vote submitted
Arty, end is cut off. Sorry. You know how to post as a link?
-->bleached chopsticks... good one.
Some more r/humor:
Sarah Palin = Sarah Conner (?)
----
China Post newspaper changing its name to "Taiwan Region Post" (?)
Hey Michael,
Good luck with the vote. I've done my bit.
"China Post newspaper changing its name to "Taiwan Region Post"
Reeb, they can't use that name. They are saving it for the Chunghwa Post once the handover is complete.
But I do think they might still get away with a new, jazzy, magazine slogan: "Offering new interpretations daily to One China"
That NYTimes article is posted in full here. Sorry, I screwed up the link.
Arty, end is cut off. Sorry. You know how to post as a link?
I copy and paste and it works...maybe you should check your copy and paste skill. Too lazy to hyper link, but at least I gave you a link unlike some people here (why you don't just google it; it is well know information :P).
Have voted, Michael, but looks like you're a bit too far behind. Good lucky anyway - here's hoping you finish in a good spot at the least.
arty: why do you always pretend to understand more economics than you really do?
In the end, the real final arbiter of optimism and pessimism is the stock market. It's the place where very rich and very smart people and institutions make their forward looking bets on a country. Right now, there is a complete collapse of confidence in Ma Ying-jeou and the KMT government. The stock market has fallen over 30%, second in the world only to China. Everyone says things are bad now, but the stock market says things are going to get worse. Hold onto your seats, we're in for a wild ride.
That's a sweet THSR video...good luck with the window washing though, with the amount of rain Taiwan gets.
arty: why do you always pretend to understand more economics than you really do?
Let me first stating that I know nothing! However, my GUESS is pretty good and I have my money on it. However, if you think stock market itself is like gambling, I think you are making a great mistake. If you can see through the simple balance sheets and spins, you will see that Taiwan index could easily going down to 6000 like I said long time ago because in my opinion it is its fair value (not going to explain how I calculate this to much work for like of you).
In my opinion, the collapse MIGHT have something to do with Ma's lack of reaction. However, it is Chen who destroyed the rule of capitalism. You do not demand election contributions by force which he is now "alleged" to have done.
Of course, now if you are a technical trader (btw, I hate technical trader), you will say that the bottom for Taiwan stock will be in between 5000 to 5500 because the panic selling has not occurred yet i.e. single day 8 to 10% drop.
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