Nelson Report on Diaoyutai Mess

The Washington insider report The Nelson Report talks about the Diaoyutai mess from the US perspective, including worries about Ma's ability to control his own people....and the backchannel discussions between Washington, Taipei, and Tokyo.

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JAPAN/TAIWAN...observers actively involved in Taiwan affairs are expressing relief that President Ma today seems to have re-established a degree of adult supervision over extreme nationalist elements in his own KMT party...thus helping to defuse the maritime crisis boiling away since a June 10 incident with Japan.

US experts note that Ma was able to coordinate with his defense officials, blocking any further dispatch of boats to the Senkaku and/or Diaoyutai Islands...and then was able to prevent a delegation of KMT extremists from conducting a highly provocative "fact finding mission" to the region.

Our sources say that while the outcome for now must be credited to Ma, today's actions came after "conversations, consultations, you name it, between Washington and Tokyo, Tokyo and Taipei, Washington and Taipei, and every combination...everyone talked to everyone."

This, after the US had nearly 7 years of "difficult" relations with the independence-minded DPP government, and what President Bush himself perceived as a consistent failure by Taipei to take US interests into account.

This time, "We made clear we didn't want this 'politicized'," an informed observer explains...a reference to the problems with the KMT.

Other observers admitted they were a little taken aback by language used yesterday by the State Department calling for a "peaceful" resolution of the standoff, explaining, "it's a little worrisome that we didn't call for a 'diplomatic' solution...it would seem to imply a genuine concern about the potential for violence..."

For what it's worth, President Ma also picked-up on the word "peaceful", rather than "diplomatic", before he apparently took the actions which today, at least, seem to have calmed the waters.

US observers noted that Prime Minister Fukuda expressed "regret" over the original incident of the 10th, in which a Japanese Coast Guard vessel collided, and sank, a Taiwanese fishing boat which had ventured into the disputed waters.

So the US was pleased that Ma said he "agreed" with Fukuda's statement that "both sides should remain calm".

For the longer run, we should note that during our visit to Taiwan for the elections, in March, observers in Taipei expressed concern, and some frankly offered a considerable degree of doubt, that President-elect Ma would be consistently able to exert control over powerful senior KMT players.

Today, an observer here, looking at the overall situation, concedes "Japan has much reason to be concerned..."

Back during his Inaugural speech, Taiwan President Ma worried observers in both Japan and the US by not reading a paragraph praising Japan...a deliberate omission seen in some quarters as a harbinger of Ma's determination to patch-up relations with Beijing regardless of Japan.

We mention that as there are some observers in the DPP who feel that the recent "invasion" of disputed off-shore islets and energy exploration areas by right-wing activists and KMT members was somehow orchestrated by China.

But most experts we mentioned this to say it seems unlikely, given China's recent campaign to patch-up relations with Japan...as per the joint energy exploration deal being announced this week.

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Think about it -- US officials were pleased that "Ma was able to coordinate with his defense officials." Ma's position among his own people is so weak that it is notable he was able to give orders to his own officials.

[Taiwan]

Another Gorgeous Day in Tainan

Air Supply, behind bars at last.

The rain stopped, the wind blew in, and the sun came out. And so I marched across Tainan, camera in hand.

This introduction to the history of National Chengkung University, whose institutional core dates back to the Japanese period, refers to Taiwan being "returned" to China. *sigh*

Rising prices don't slow down those delivery vehicles. In many cities gas delivery trucks constantly roam the streets of their neighborhoods, waiting for phone calls. This reduces delivery times.

Sunlight in the alleys.

Shengli Road in Tainan.

Flowers crowd the camera.

There's a doctoral dissertation hidden in these signs.

85C is a booming Taiwan coffee chain that opened an outlet in Australia.

One thing I like about Tainan is that the wilderness of signs has not been tamed by some local government that wants all the signs to look the same.

Residential neighborhoods.

Curving alleys are a feature of Taiwan neighborhoods. A relic of their origin in converted rice fields?

Water pumps waiting for customers.

A small restaurant takes a break between meals.

Another great thing about Tainan is the brick pavements. Very atmospheric.

A gas cooker, common in street stands.

Washing down after lunch rush.

A small shrine tucked into a crevice next to an auto repair shop is a physical metaphor for the unobtrusive integration of religion into everyday life in Taiwan.

A street stall.

I've never seen this variety of mango before. Delicious.

It's nice to have something to do while the vendor cooks your onion cakes.

In every neighborhood such bulletin boards announce places for rent.

The sun brought out the clothes.

Enjoying an afternoon BBQ in a tea stand.

Good fengshui: where an alley intersects housing, a temple is often built to deflect the negative effects of the road running like a dagger into a potential home.

The inside of a local restaurant. Bare walls: I've never understood the attraction.

Meats pose in a local restaurant display.

Your friendly neighborhood police station.

Filling up with water.

Words fail me.

Sells a little bit of everything.

Drying the cleaning stuff.

The imposing edifice of a local junior high school.

The day was so clear that the mountains were visible. I've actually never seen them before.

After a long walk, ice cream is the correct therapy for sore feet and a parched tongue.

[Taiwan]

The Politics of Sixth Grade: Endgame -- UPDATED--

Paul M. Fussell, the social critic and author of several excellent books on war and society, once observed that Americans live out their adult lives in a quest to get revenge for what happened to them in high school. Here in small town Taiwan, by contrast, the enmities that began in elementary school have been carried down through the adult years and continue to poison events and relationships that should long ago have healed. Toss in a taste for brazen lying, backstabbing, and the urge to control, brew with delusions of fading patrician grandeur, and even a minor event like the song schedule for the sixth grade graduation ceremony becomes an epic of betrayal and obsession worthy of a Kubrick film.

It began with our principal, who at least meant well. The graduation ceremony for my daughter's sixth grade class, with is split into two small classes, should be something memorable and important, he decided. Speeches, songs, and words from the parents to the children: one of each parent was supposed to make a three minute speech to their children, in front of the assembly.

Much sighing and eye-rolling ensued. Nobody except a few attention-starved parents likes making such speeches, and worse, what about kids like poor MPT, whose parents dumped him on his grandparents and disappeared?

The real issue, however, was the song. The school sits on land that once belonged to a famous local family, and LCC, a member of the clan, was convinced that she had special status at the school and could order everyone else around -- a behavior neither changed nor dimmed from her elementary school days.

There are two classes, A, and B. LCC's child is in A, and my daughter is in B. The parents of B made a few phone calls and settled on a staple Taiwan farewell song that everyone knew (my wife and her friends had quietly ensured that the sensible parents had their kids together in B class). LCC would have none of that. Swinging into action, she called some of the parents, informing ZJM that my wife didn't like the song, while informing my wife that ZJM opposed it. She also told everyone that only her class would sing, but B class could join A if it wanted to. Oh, and FHS, the piano teacher whose kid was in B? She wasn't good enough to play the song. Everyone was assured that the principal and the teachers were on board with all this. They weren't, of course. Some of the parents in B were bombarded by LCC with more than twenty phone calls over a span of a couple of days. Say what you like about Little League Parents brawling in front of their children on the ballfield, but at least the anger is open and public.

It's hard to know what to be more amazed by in this microcosmic mess. The brazen lying that assumed that no one would call anyone else, even though friends of several years' standing had ostensibly insulted each other? The desperate need to control which song is sung by one class, and to deny the other class any part in the graduation ceremony? The assumption of authority that does not exist? You make the call. But when you look at things like this, it is easy to understand why the current KMT administration is allegedly denying infrastructure funds to all districts headed by DPP politicians. It's what they learned in grade school....

UPDATE: Just like in real politics, the speed of events outstrips the ability to describe them. The other day LCC sent a note home in all the kids' homework books, instructing them that "if you love your kids," parents should join in the singing. Wholly conducted with the other class, to the exclusion of my daughter's class. We can join their program -- if we love our kids.

Meanwhile the parents of my daughter's class had originally decided that JYN was going to make the commencement speech. She was blithely informed by LCC to keep it to five minutes, since the other class was going to put up no less than 5 speakers, all of indeterminate length.

In other words, LCC had bent all her energy for an entire week toward one end -- to exclude the parents of one sixth grade class from celebrating the graduation of their children.

[Taiwan]

Diaoyutai winds down

News services are reporting that the whole Diaoyutai mess is now blowing over. Taiwan News reports that the Taiwan Coast Guard is using this to ask for a bigger budget and more ships.

The CGA currently has 14 vessels of more than 500 tons and 152 ships smaller than 500 tons - lagging well behind the Japanese authorities' scale, the officials said.

Japan's marine defense authorities have a total of 79 boats weighing over 500 tons, 380 patrol vessels of less than 500 tons and 73 aircraft, while its agriculture and fisheries authorities have 31 ships above 500 tons and four planes, according to the officials.

During the 2005-2007 period, Japan posted marked increases in budgets for constructing vessels, with the figure jumping to the equivalent of more than NT$13 billion in 2007, up from NT$4.13 billion in 2005, the officials went on.

The country's need to build more vessels to protect Taiwanese fishing boats operating on the high seas has become more urgent after a sport fishing boat from Taipei County, the Lien Ho, collided last Tuesday with a Japanese coast patrol frigate in disputed Japan-controlled waters near the Tiaoyutai islands.

I heard that the Chinese-language news claimed that the boat had been involved in provocations in the Diaoyutais before, but I could not find any news stories on it prior to this event.

[Taiwan]

Diaoyutai Tidbits

Friends passed along these interesting tidbits of information:

“Around the turn of this century, an enterprising Japanese named Koga brought in scores of seasonal workers, food and supplies each year to develop Tiao-yu, Huang wei and Nan-hsiao [the three Senkaku islands-- MT]. Houses, reservoirs, docks, warehouses and sewers were built and experimental planting was conducted. Koga was engaged in the business of collecting guano and albatross feathers, bonito canning, and bird stuffing. His business was discontinued in 1915 because of the high cost. After his death in 1918, his son continued his fish canning and bird stuffing businesses until the early 1940’s, when all operations were terminated and enterprises abandoned.”

Ying-jeou Ma, “Legal Problems of Seabed Boundary Delimitation in the East China Sea,” Occasional Papers/Reprints Series in Contemporary Asian Studies, Number 3 – 1984 (62), School of Law, University of Maryland, 1984, pp 92-93.

Check out the author's name on that above piece. The second relates to the US position on the Senkakus/Diayutais:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/senkaku.htm):

"The 1960 US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security applies to territories under the administration of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands. In November 1996, Assistant Secretary of Defense Campbell stated that the basic position of the US is that the Japan-US security treaty would cover the Senkaku Islands. Secretary of Defense William Perry reconfirmed this fact on 03 December 1996.

On March 24, 2004, Adam Ereli, Deputy Spokesman at the US State Deparment said "The Senkaku Islands have been under the administrative control of the Government of Japan since having been returned as part of the reversion of Okinawa in 1972. Article 5 of the 1960 U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security states that the treaty applies to the territories under the administration of Japan; thus, Article 5 of the Mutual Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands. Sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands is disputed. The U.S. does not take a position on the question of the ultimate sovereignty of the Senkaku Diaoyu Islands. This has been our longstanding view. We expect the claimants will resolve this issue through peaceful means and we urge all claimants to exercise restraint.""

News is that the Presidential Office and KMT HQ are reigning in the idiot legislators.

[Taiwan]

WHO rally in Seattle

Rallying for WHO entry in Seattle on the 17th:

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For Immediate Release

June 16, 2008

Contacts:
Rebecca Lee 206-390-2839
CJ Wang 202-210-0436
Iris Ho 202-280-0166

TAIWANESE AMERICANS IN SEATTLE CALL UPON PACIFIC HEALTH SUMMIT TO SUPPORT TAIWAN'S INCLUSION IN THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (WHO)

On June 17, from 10:00AM until noon, Taiwanese Americans will rally in front of the Bell Harbor International Conference Center in Seattle urging participants in the Pacific Health Summit to put the issue of Taiwan's inclusion in the World Health Organization (WHO) on the summit's agenda.

Earlier this month, Dr. Bob Yang, the President of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA - www.fapa.org), a world-wide organization promoting freedom, democracy, human rights and international participation for the people of Taiwan, wrote a letter to each summit participant.

In the letter dated June 1 (See: below for full text), Dr. Yang wrote: "As world-renowned professionals in the fields of science and health, we trust that you are well aware of Taiwan's lack of access to the highest level of medical - and health information within the WHO network and that you are cognizant of Taiwan's generous contributions to the global campaigns on AIDS and other epidemic diseases."

The letter concludes: "We hope that you will bring up Taiwan's participation (or lack thereof) in the international health network during your meeting."

In Taiwan there is broad and strong public support for Taiwan's full membership in the WHO. In an opinion poll held in Taiwan last year, 94,9% of respondents expressed support for the nation's entry as a full member of the WHO under the name "Taiwan." (Source: Foundation of Medical Professionals Alliance in Taiwan, April 2007).

China, due to its unfounded territorial claims on Taiwan, has for the past decade been the main obstacle for Taiwan to join international organizations in general and the WHO in particular. Adding insult to injury, in 2005 the WHO and China concluded a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding that established specific procedures for the handling of information between the WHO and Taiwan. These procedures require the WHO to consult with the PRC before sending any medical information or assistance to Taiwan and to allow the PRC to determine whether such information is passed on to the Taiwanese health authorities at all.

This is all the more ironic, for in its charter, the WHO sets forth the objective of attaining the highest possible level of health for all people.

In the meantime, Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS) issued an Extension of Remarks (See: below) in the Congressional Record dated May 23 concluding: "Taiwan's membership in the WHO is not only in the interest of the people of Taiwan , it is in the interest of the international community and the WHO itself: as the WHO stands to benefit significantly from the financial and technological contributions that Taiwan has to offer. Madam Speaker, I urge my colleagues to join me in support of Taiwan's inclusion in the World Health Organization."

Taiwan has sought observer status at the annual meeting of the WHO every year since 1997.

[Taiwan]

Taiwan News on the Tiaoyutai "Dispute" -- UPDATED --

Taiwan News once again takes heads with a great editorial that says it ever so much better than I could. Among the highlights...

The accidental sinking of the allegedly fishing boat "Lienho" after a collusion with a Japanese Coast Guard patrol near the contested Tiaoyutai or Senkaku islets June 11 sparked a revealing test of the vow of new President Ma Ying-jeou that his restored Kuomintang government would be a "peace-maker" and not a "trouble-maker."

Reacting to the sinking with the same reckless haste as shown in rushing into negotiations with the authoritarian People's Republic of China, Ma and Premier Liu Chao-shiuan and other KMT Cabinet officials have engaged in a flurry of self-contradictory actions that have unnecessarily inflamed instead of cooling a crisis and have harmed Taiwan's diplomatic interest and image.

Instead of investigate what actually happened off the Tiaoyutai islets and considering why this incident took place just as Taiwan and PRC negotiations were resuming in Beijing, Ma rushed to trumpet his government's resolve to defend Taiwan's claimed sovereignty over Tiaoyutai while Foreign Minister Francisco Ou lectured Japan's semi-official representative in Taipei and demanded compensation for the "loss" suffered by "Lienho" captain Ho Hung-yi.

Moreover, Premier Liu stated Friday that he would "not exclude war" as an option in the dispute with Tokyo over the uninhabited islets in the East Sea, only to retract this careless statement hours later.

Taiwan News adds:

In our view, Ma's government's "loose cannon" behavior neglected numerous aspects of the incident and displayed an attitude out of keeping with international practice in resolving such disputes.

First, it should be noted that, even though Taiwan's own marine regulations ban recreational fishing vessels from travelling more than 24 nautical miles away from their port or staying out for over more than 48 hours, the site where the "Lienho" encountered the JCG patrol boat was no less than 140 nautical miles from Keelung.

Instead of being lionized, "Lienho" Captain Ho Hung-yi could have more properly treated with an indictment for deliberating flouting Taiwan's own marine safety regulations and for reckless endangerment of his craft and passengers.

Second, with regard to the Tiaoyutai issue, the accepted custom in international society in handling territorial disputes is to provisionally maintain the status quo until the time is ripe for the diplomatic or legal resolution and to absolutely prohibit the use of force.

Indeed, Tokyo and Taipei have already agreed to prohibit recreational fishing within 12 nautical miles of Tiaoyutai or in the delineated no-fishing zone in which fishing boats from either Taiwan or Japan are prohibited from engaging in fishing operations, an agreement with the "Lienho" transgressed.

In other words, Ma & Co. are displaying a bombastic lack of sophistication that forcibly reminds one of Beijing thirty years ago. While China and Japan already have mapped out a fishing agreement for disputed areas, showing maturity, Taipei simply ignores the agreements it has with Japan.

It's worth saying again: the ship's captain is not a hero. His behavior resulted in a collision, he was in violation of the 24 mile rule for recreational fishing boats, and he violated an existing agreement on fishing boundaries. He should be indicted, and have his license revoked. He won't be, but it would be a nice precedent if he were. This is exactly the kind of unlicensed uncivil self-centered behavior we see all the time in Taiwan society, from illegal planting of betel and bamboo on restricted slopeland, to illegal harvesting of coral (in post below), to illegal parking and illegal trash burning. Only here its consequences are more than purely local.

But Taiwan News has the kicker:

We have difficulty in understanding why Ma is so eager to "set aside the sovereignty dispute" with a PRC regime that threatens Taiwan's existence but is unwilling to "set aside" a dispute over the Tiaoyutai islets with a friendly northern neighbor.

Let's hear it again about how sophisticated the KMT is compared to the DPP. Can anyone say "Diaoyutai"?
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UPDATE: The China Post is a crack up:

Taiwanese widely believe the incident was the result of a deliberate act of the Japanese vessel to sink the Lien Ho.

While condemning what they call was Japan's outrageous act, the scholars nevertheless must still be rational and cautious in handling controversy.

Do Taiwanese "widely believe" that the Japanese did it on purpose? ROFL. The "scholars" in the article then go on to discuss whether the nation should be ready to go to war. What is this -- the 15th century?

If they want a deliberate conspiracy, they should look closer to home: a Taiwanese fishing boat in violation of laws requiring it stay within 24 miles of home, nevertheless illegally fishes in an area known to be patrolled by Japanese craft, and then has a collision with a military vessel in which it turns in front of that vessel. And this event, perfect for nationalistic blowing up, happens just as important talks with China in which the nation's sovereignty is damaged. Oh yeah, the boat's name? Lian Ho, which could be translated as "united" or "unity." Now that's a conspiracy.

But of course, from my perspective, it looks like a fishing boat engaging in illicit (read: normal) behavior and panicking as the police showed up. Pretty much par for the course, no conspiracy required.

Maddog flipped me the links to Youtube videos here and here, both from CTI, the televised arm of the China Times, the pro-KMT newspaper.

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UPDATE II: A friend flipped me this bit from the Kuomintang News Network (KNN):

In the early morning of June 16, Huang Hsi-ling, executive director of the Tiaoyutai Isles Defense League, led a 12-member group to sail towards the Tiaoyutai Isles under the protection of five ROC National Coast Guard cutters. Ignoring the obstruction of two Japanese frigates, the fleet entered waters roughly 0.4 miles off the Tiaoyutai Isles.

The Japanese Coast Guard also sent 8 frigates to surround the Taiwanese fleet. The civilian group from Taiwan had intended to climb onto Tiaoyutai Island, but the sea conditions rendered such a move too dangerous. The fleet reasserted sovereignty of the Republic of China over the Tiaoyutai Isles by sailing around it once, and then the fleet returned back to Taiwan. The entire event was completed without incident because both sides exercised self-restraint.

The ROC Coast Guard Administration also ordered that another 10 cutters and frigates standby to follow the fleet protecting the 12-member group to reassert ROC sovereignty over the Tiaoyutai Isles.

Let's hear those words of Ma Ying-jeou in his inaugural address one more time:

At the same time, we are committed to cross-strait peace and regional stability. The Republic of China must restore its reputation in the international community as a peace-maker.

It's a good thing they are committed to regional stability, eh?

[Taiwan]

Sad Environmental News on Coral Reef Mining

The Taipei Times reports on very bad news for Taiwan's marine ecosystems: the government has decided to license coral reef mining again...

The fight to protect dwindling and fragile coral reefs suffered a setback after the Council of Agriculture (COA) granted dozens of coral-mining licenses in April, reversing the gradual reduction of licensed coral boats.

The COA granted licenses to 96 boats that had been illegally collecting red coral at a meeting in early April, amending a 1989 regulation prohibiting new licenses.

The regulation stipulated that the government should not issue new licenses allowing companies to tear corals from reefs for the jewelry industry or as souvenirs for tourists.

Although the regulation allowed already licensed companies to renew their permits, the rule led to a steady drop in the number of licensed coral-mining boats. Earlier this year only three licensed boats remain.

A study conducted by local governments found, however, that 96 fishing boats were illegally collecting red coral.

The council amended the regulation in April, saying it was protecting the livelihood of the boat operators. The new regulation allowed all boats with coral-mining equipment identified by the end of last year to attain licenses.

Yes, check that out: the government licensed an illegal activity to protect the livelihoods of those carrying on that activity. Why stop there? I can think of lots of illegal livelihoods in need of protection.

What a crying shame that coral, which has no important economic use, isn't simply left alone. According to this report, Taiwan is a major exporter of worked coral jewelry. This trade is aimed entirely at the advanced world, either as exports of coral rock and live coral for aquariums(leading importer: the US) or else as souvenirs to tourists.

It's also important to remember that 96 boats is nothing -- coral mining not only destroys irreplaceable reefs, but there are large secondary economic losses to fish habitats and leisure activities that far outweigh the value of the dynamited coral. Taiwan is probably losing money on this short-sighted and destructive decision.

[Taiwan]

Foreign Affairs Remix

Looking at the current situation with the talks with China on one hand, and the hilarious mess with the fishing vessel Lian He Hao colliding with a Japanese military vessel in the Diaoyutai, one is forced to ask, Where's Waldo? style: where's Ma?

The Taipei Times offered an interview today with new DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen on the China talks:

Taipei Times: Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) met Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) in Beijing on Friday afternoon after a deal was struck on cross-strait weekend charter flights and expanding Chinese tourism in Taiwan. Do you think the agreements should be approved by the legislature?

Tsai Ing-wen: Like a treaty signed with a foreign country, an executive agreement signed with China requires the approval of the legislature.

The problem with the agreements is the negotiation process was not transparent. We do not know who goes where to talk about what, when they go and with whom they talked. So we are worried.

It is a very sensitive issue and concerns Taiwan’s interests, but the negotiation process was not transparent and there is no due process for the legislature to make inquiries.

Read the whole interview, it is quite good. One effect of having Taiwan and China talk about Taiwan's fate is simple: China has achieved what it always wanted to achieve: localization of the Taiwan issue, specifically to itself. By contrast, the pro-democracy side's strategy was to internationalize the Taiwan issue. The new head of MAC, Lai Shin-yuan, who has been fielding accusations that the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has been sidelined by the party-to-party talks, said that the KMT representative had done well. More talks on direct flights are coming soon.

On the lighter side, we note that the "pragmatic" KMT which had promised to make foreign policy about economics and not ideology has gone ideologically insane over the minor incident of a Japanese military vessel colliding with a Taiwanese fishing boat in the Diaoyutai Islands. Today the Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled Taiwan's representative to Japan, for talks -- not as a diplomatic move. As my hiking partner Sponge Bear, freshly back from a Japan trip, reminded me with droll humor...

Now that I've returned, I can sit back and watch the war over the Senkakus begin. I'm just wondering, however, if anyone in the government or KMT is aware of something called the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty. You know, the little piece of paper that obliges the United States to come to the defense of Japan if any country should attack it.

It was the US that handed the islands back to Japan when it returned Okinawa to Japan. Francisco Ou, Taiwan's foreign minister, who wants to retire to the US and once applied for citizenship there, called for a revival of a special inter-agency committee on the Diaoyutai, a group of islands claimed by China, Taiwan, and Japan (who call them by their better known name, the Senkakus).

So....the KMT comes to power, snuggles up to China, and foments trouble with Japan. Funny coincidence how the trouble with Japan comes at the same time that it is conducting cross-strait talks. Meanwhile, the South China Morning Post reports that in China, Deputy Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who ironically is a Japan expert, will head up China's Taiwan Affairs Office as the current director, Chen Yunlin, is being kicked up to head ARATs, China's counterpart to the SEF. According to the SCMP, Wang has an excellent international image. He headed China's delegation to the Six Party talks, and also was part of the team that calmed down the anti-Japanese movement. An interesting appointment.

UPDATE: Calls for a confederation or federation used to be the preserve of scholars in the west. But now Reuters reports on a "bold" call for a confederation by a high-ranking Chinese economist.

[Taiwan]

CS Monitor on Cross-Strait Flight Agreement

Jonathan Adams has an excellent piece in the CS Monitor on the recent agreement, full of useful insights and details, covering almost all the main points.

.....Analysts cautioned that Friday's deal was just the first – and easiest – step on the long and difficult road toward reconciliation between the two bitter rivals. Critics in Taiwan said President Ma had made too many concessions to China too soon.

Under the deal, cross-strait charter flights will run on weekends starting July 4, shuttling Chinese tourists and Taiwanese businessmen between eight airports in Taiwan and five in the mainland. Ma hopes to realize regularly scheduled, daily flights by the summer of 2009, and see up to 3,000 Chinese tourists per day come to Taiwan.

Local media also reported that the two sides had raised the issues of joint oil exploration and establishing representative offices in each other's territories to manage exchanges. But Taiwan's government Friday poured cold water on the proposals, saying Taiwan's team had not been authorized to negotiate on those issues. "I don't think that can be accomplished in the foreseeable future," said Mainland Affairs Council vice chairman Chang Liang-jen, referring to the representative offices.

Another sign of lingering suspicions was the fact that weekend charter flights will not take direct routes across the Taiwan Strait. Instead, they must first fly through Hong Kong airspace, because of security concerns. That will add 90 minutes or more of travel time to flights from Taipei to Shanghai or Beijing.

Has the KMT conceded too much? Ask the military:

The roundabout flight path highlights the challenge of squaring the economic benefits of closer cross-strait ties with national security concerns.

Taiwan's military, which must plan for the worst, is leery of allowing Chinese passenger planes to fly directly across the strait. "A jet fighter could hide beneath a 747 and appear to be one airplane on radar," says one Defense Ministry official. "They could use civilian airplanes as camouflage if they want to attack."

Military officials had also hoped that two airports near sensitive airbases on Taiwan's rugged east coast would not receive charter flights from China. Those bases – in Hualien and Taitung – are "the last line of defense for air combat," the defense official says. But the deal includes the two airports.

Still, there are palliatives....

....Andrew Yang, a cross-strait security expert at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei, says that one option under consideration was allowing flights to Shanghai or Beijing to pass through Japanese airspace, which would further reduce flying time.

But he says flights directly across the Taiwan Strait would require negotiated confidence-building measures and "safety corridors." "If there's no guarantee of 'safety corridors,' then it would be easy for the Chinese air force to fully utilize the routes to conduct military strikes," says Mr. Yang. "That would leave Taiwan no time to respond."

Ma has raised a high bar for even starting such security talks, saying that China must first withdraw its missiles aimed at Taiwan. "That's the biggest obstacle that will hamper the negotiation process," says Yang.

China has about 1,400 short-range ballistic missiles deployed along the coast opposite Taiwan, as well as cruise missiles, according to the latest count from the Taiwan government. To help counter that military threat, Taiwan has requested Patriot anti-missile batteries, F-16 fighter jets, submarines, attack helicopters, and other equipment from the US.

But according to a Washington Post story Thursday, the US has delayed approval of $11 billion worth of those and other purchases. The paper reported that Washington had delayed the approval at Taiwan's request, as sensitive cross-strait negotiations proceed.

Taiwan's government declined to comment on that report Friday.

The Washington Post report also said that the Bush Administration had frozen weapons sales to obtain China's cooperation on North Korea's nuclear program. The key actors were said to be Sec. of State Rice, and Stephen Hadley.

Adam's formulaic description of the China-Taiwan sovereignty issue is quite restrained, making no silly references to 1949.

China views self-governed Taiwan as part of its territory, and periodically threatens force to back up its claim. Beijing strongly objects to any US military sales or support for the island.

Taiwan's pro-independence opposition party said Ma was giving up too much to Beijing in order to make good on campaign pledges to boost cross-strait ties.

"The KMT has traded in defense interests for improved cross-strait relations, and this is extremely dangerous," says Lin Chen-wei, director of international affairs for the Democratic Progressive Party, and a former National Security Council official. "We're saying, why are you going so fast? We're very concerned about their strategic direction."

Mr. Lin noted that the pro-independence government had laid the groundwork for Friday's deal in informal talks over the last few years. It negotiated a package deal of cross-strait passenger charter flights, cargo flights, and tourism. But Beijing refused to sign a deal until the more China-friendly KMT retook power last month.

Another sore point is that Friday's deal does not include cross-strait cargo flights. That's high on Taiwan businesses' wish list, because many ship high-tech parts to the mainland for assembly.

According to Lin, Beijing is dragging its feet on such flights because Taiwan's cargo industry is much stronger than China's, and because China wants Taiwanese firms to move their R&D and high technology to the mainland.

Let's see...to obtain the $1-2 billion in revenues from tourists, the KMT has (1) ignored the cargo flights which Taiwan needs; (2) ignored military recommendations that Chinese aircraft not be allowed to fly into certain areas in Taiwan; (3) downplayed the island's sovereignty; and (4) handed off national policy to negotiators from a particular political party. Note that the DPP's sensible program included "a package deal" for cargo flights, direct flights, and tourism. The idea that the DPP's cross-strait policy was "irrational" or "ideological" is strictly a pro-KMT framing.

[Taiwan]

Our New, More Rational Adminstration

Remember when Chen Shui-bian was Mad Chen, and war was just around the corner? Luckily we have the more rational Ma Ying-jeou Administration in power, eh? The Taipei Times reports on our nutcase legislators and their naive Premier:

Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) said yesterday he would not rule out going to war with Japan if Taipei and Tokyo fail to resolve the dispute over the Diaoyutai (釣魚台) islands triggered by Tuesday’s collision between a Taiwanese fishing boat and a Japanese patrol vessel. “I believe declaration of war is the last option to resolve controversies between two nations,” Liu said when fielding repeated questions from Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Chen Ken-te (陳根德) on the floor of the legislature about whether the Cabinet was ready for a war with Japan.

Liu made the comment after being repeatedly asked if he had not ruled out war as an option in the dispute.

Later in an interpellation session with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Chun-yee (李俊毅), the premier elaborated on his remark, saying that war would be the last choice if all peaceful means were in vain.

The premier knows that idea of war is ridiculous, but that word should never have crossed his lips. Yet can you imagine what the reaction would have been if a premier in the DPP government had made similar remarks?

People claimed the DPP is "ideological" and the KMT "pragmatic." Sorry, but the evidence so far is clear that in its foreign policy the KMT is more bombastic, more rigid, and more provincial than the DPP ever was. If Ma really wants to bargain with China from a position of strength, he'll need the support of Japan. Yet so far within a month of swearing in, Ma's Administration has twice been offensive toward Japan. heck, if they were really clever, they'd hand the Diaoyutai over the Japanese, leaving a permanent irritant in the Japan-China relationship....

The Japanese behaved with forebearance, but an interesting tidbit is that a lower-ranking official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave an order to the Coast Guard to keep its vessels out of the islands -- without having any authority to do so.

[Japan] [Taiwan]

Agreement Inked on Regular Direct Flights

Reuters is one of many media outlets announcing the big news:

China and Taiwan signed a landmark deal on Friday to launch regular flights between the long-time rivals as politics was put aside in favour of practicalities in the first such talks in almost a decade.

Apart from special holidays, there have been no regular direct flights since 1949, when the defeated Nationalists fled to the island amid civil war with the Communists.

China has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled and democratic Taiwan ever since and has pledged to bring the island under its control, by force if necessary.

But the election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, who won by a landslide in March on pledges to boost the local economy by improving trade with China, has suddenly warmed relations.

"This is good for Ma Ying-jeou because he wants to deliver in his first 100 days," said Joseph Cheng, political science professor at City University of Hong Kong.

"Beijing is eager to win the hearts of the Taiwan people."

Goldman Sachs forecast Taiwan GDP growth to slow to 4.5 percent this year from 5.7 percent in 2007, but to rise to 4.8 percent next year "as the economic impact from the progress on cross-Strait policies comes to fruition".

Love that forecast, eh? With an additional 2,000 tourists a day, the economy will be nearly a percentage point worse in economic growth than it was in 2007 -- what it did in 2006, in fact, with no direct links. Note also that in all the hoopla cargo links are still months off. Part of the economic logic of Taiwan linking itself more closely to China was its position in the global supply chain. To retain that, it needs direct shipping and air cargo links to China. If Hsieh had won, I heard from insiders, direct shipping links were the first things to be implemented. WaPo's Ed Cody observes:

In addition, the agreement announced Friday says that negotiations on chartered freight flights are to begin within three months. This was an important point for Taiwan, whose business owners run many factories in mainland China that often require swift resupply.

MEDIA NOTES: Ed Wong's NY Times piece on this same news says that Beijing regards Taiwan as a "renegade province." That's a media formula; Beijing has never used it. Can it be dropped, please? Reports from AP, WaPo. Reuters also reports that the Taiwan media complained they didn't have enough access. That's the world you're building, guys, by supporting the Blues.

UPDATE: LOL. China's Taiwan Affairs Office claims Lee Teng-hui made up the "renegade province" phrase.

李登輝在文中還多次提到"北京聲稱台灣為叛離一省"，這是他為欺騙國際輿論而扯下的一個彌天大謊。事實上，祖國大陸方面主張在堅持一個中國原則下進行兩岸 談判，從未說過以中央對地方的名義進行談判，更未說過什麼"台灣是叛離一省"。這恰恰是李登輝之流自設的"稻草人"，每當他們的分裂行徑遭到中國人民嚴正 批駁時，便裝扮出一副可憐相，以圖博得國際輿論的同情。

[Taiwan]

Daily Links, June 12, 2008

The miracle of mimicry above, and on the blogs, the miracle of creativity...

Paogao enjoys a night at the national symphony orchestra.

Taiwan Scams: The ATM machine.

David on Formosa has a guest post on Computex. And a good post on the bike industry and biking here.

Fili goes wild with pics at the Tainan Dragon Boat festival.

Kaohsiung street signs from Pinyin News.

Scott Sommers revisits the decline in test scores.

Once Upon a Time in Taiwan goes to Taroko Gorge.

Foreign Language blog rips Joe Hung from the China Post.

Digitimes interviews Taiwan's Econ Minister.

ADDED: Rank rips a piece by Ed Wong of the NYTimes. I still have a post on their last piece on Taiwan sitting in draft. The unnuanced repetition of KMT positions glossed as the conventional wisdom is so frustrating that sometimes I just give up in despair.

MEDIA: Days after I noted it on my blog, and after the Defense News piece came out, WaPo reports on the Bush Administration freeze of arms sales to Taiwan. But don't worry! On Progressive websites we will continue to read how the US is dumping arms on Taiwan to foment a war with China. Because progressive views of Taiwan are still in the Cold War. In addition to Computex, this month is also the Taiwan Nano Exhibition. Taipei City will ban disposable chopsticks. Taiwan drafts laws for Yuan conversion. Many gaudy changes will be made, but what about addressing things like Taiwan's oppressive tax and visa situations, as well as the lack of schools for foreign students?

[Taiwan]

Nuclear Blues

In April the Taipower announced that it was purchasing new units for its nuclear power plants... The other day Taiwan News wrote a hard hitting editorial about the KMT's nuclear energy policies....

After years of objection while in opposition to the setting of explicit carbon dioxide reduction targets, the KMT now advocates a drive to return to 2008 levels of carbon emissions by 2020 and to return to the level of emissions in 2000 by 2025, in part by expanding the share of "low carbon" energy sources of total electricity power output from 40 percent at present to 55 percent by 2025.

Unfortunately, behind this rhetoric lurks the shadows of a deceitful drive by KMT technocratic ideologues to revive nuclear power as the core of Taiwan's future energy policy under the "low carbon" banner.

The new program specifically mandates that "nuclear power will be considered a zero-carbon option" and the policy decision issued by KMT Premier Liu Chao-shuian that completion of the controversial Nuclear Four facility will be "accelerated" so that its two 1,350-megawatt reactor units can come on line late next year.

Environmental Protection Administration Minister Shen Shih-hung stated Thursday that "nuclear power is a method to deal with carbon dioxide, but is the last resort," but this fig leaf was discarded by the Ministry of Economic Affairs as a spokesman admitted that the MOEA is "evaluating" a fifth nuclear power facility and by the statement of a Taiwan Power Co spokesman that there was room at the Nuclear Four site in northeast Taiwan for up to 12 more nuclear reactor generating units.

It is apparent that the KMT sees the rapid expansion of Taiwan's nuclear power capacity not a "last resort" but as a priority program in yet another example of its proclivity to allow its technocratic ideology "to drive policy."

Typically, not only did the KMT block carbon targets, it also blocked renewable energy legislation, as the editorial notes:

If the KMT was sincere in its adoption of a "low-carbon" philosophy," then the KMT-controlled Legislature should long ago have allowed the passage of several laws proposed by the former DPP government to achieve this vision.

The most egregious example is the draft law for the encouragement of renewable energy use, which was introduced into the Legislative Yuan over six years ago, whose passage would have allowed the promotion of enough renewable energy capacity to cover a new nuclear power facility without the risks and with greater employment benefits.

One pattern common world-wide with nuclear power is the way it shapes political behavior and political structures that are fundamentally anti-democratic. Taiwan is no exception, as the editorial notes:

Last but not least, the KMT's planned revival of nuclear power involves our human and environmental rights.

Since the KMT ticket did not even mention plans for a "nuclear renaissance" in their campaign, the new KMT government does not have an automatic mandate to reverse the decision made by a bi-partisan legislative majority in early 2002 to adopt a "non-nuclear home" vision in the Environmental Basic Law.

We therefore support the position of the Nuclear Four Referendum Promotion Association that the question of whether to allow the controversial Nuclear Four facility to enter commercial production should be ratified by the people of Taiwan through national citizen referendum and urge that any future plans to build new nuclear reactor units should also be subject to ratification by citizen referendum.

Another issue, as the editorial points out, is the almost total lack of policy on greening Taiwan's public and private infrastructure. What Taiwan should be doing is shutting down polluting industries...

The fundamental solution to Taiwan's energy and carbon emissions problems requires mostly action the demand side, especially structural adjustment of our industrial structure.

For example, environmentalists estimate that over 83 percent of the alleged annual carbon dioxide reduction of 18 million tons claimed for Nuclear Four could be realized simply by vetoing plans by the Formosa Plastics Group to build a steel refinery on the Yunlin coast.

Taiwan should also be shutting down the new coal-fired power plants the DPP stupidly signed off on. Instead, it should rapidly expand renewable energy use (like windpower), make buildings green, and implement conservation. The incestuous relationship between local politicians and the construction and concrete industries not only produces massive overbuilding with the attendant strain on the environment and economy, but also creates an infrastructure that has extremely poor energy conservation characteristics.

What is truly monstrous is that these issues have not changed in the two decades after the fourth nuclear plant became a huge political issue. Rational conservation programs could obviate the need for new power plants, yet instead of introducing conservation programs, the government just builds more power plants. This is, in the energy field, the same problem we face with water, where instead of raising prices and encouraging conservation, the government just services demand by providing cheap water and building more reservoirs. Or with roads, where the government just builds more and more roads, instead of working on ways to reduce the number of cars on the road. The result is massive government debt, infrastructure suited to the 1960s, and abuse of every kind of natural resource.

All this the DPP wanted to change. But I'm not worried, because we're all going to be millionaires once we open up to China! It's magic! I think I'll go outside and dress up like a customs official and build a miniature Grand Hotel in my driveway. I bet that will make the Chinese come over and bring plenty of cargo.....

[Taiwan]

Sovereignty....is whatever you want it to be...

After KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung played down Taiwan's sovereignty in talks with China, refusing to call Ma Ying-jeou "President," and referring to Taiwan as "Chinese Taipei" -- along with referring to people on both sides of the Strait as "Chinese" -- the KMT news network reported today that the Foreign Ministry had asserted the sovereignty of the ROC over the Tiaoyutai Islands after the incident the other day involving a Japanese frigate colliding with a Taiwanese fishing boat.

The Foreign Ministry also issued a press release, emphasizing, “The Government of the Republic of China has always held the stance that the Tiaoyutai Isles belong to the Republic of China. The resolution to safeguard its sovereignty is indisputable and will not change.”

Chen Lih-torng, director of the Institute of the Law of the Sea at the National Taiwan Ocean University, yesterday demanded that the government change its approach to reassert sovereignty over Tiaoyutai Isles; it should not simply say “to shelve disputes over sovereignty.” Instead, the government should skillfully demonstrate its jurisdiction and ability to enforce laws. For example, he said that, the ROC government should ask Japan to return to the negotiating table immediately, and it should, at the same time, also dispatch frigates to patrol the waters within the 12 miles off the Tiaoyutai Isles so as to reassert ROC sovereignty.

[Taiwan]