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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!
Monday, September 07, 2015
FDI and Taiwan
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!
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The economic realignment towards China these past 8 years is starting to show very poor timing these last 2. The next downturn is going to show a decoupling with China's huge investment bubble popping (you can only invest for so long while people aren't actually buying more) and commodities producers (Australia, Brazil, South Africa, etc) crashing with it; on the other hand, the US (some commodities via oil, but not core), India (lower prices are a huge boon and lacks infrastructure which will now be very cheap to buy) will do much better as growth accelerates in both places.
Taiwan after 8 years is setup much less to be able to benefit from a growing US and a crashing China as it was in the past. It's also constrained in being able to appropriately raise its currency (and pay appropriate wages to the whole island) while being tied to China and exports and going through a downturn. But it's an opportunity post the next election to renew stronger economic ties with US and build new ones with India and finally have a balanced, sustainable growth.
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