Monday, August 31, 2015

Election, Polls, Links

We'll be back...

And so, after all the noise and complaints, KMT heavyweight Lien Chan went off to China for the 70th anniversary of WWII festivities there. Taipei Times reported:
Regarding President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) warning that Lien’s participation in Beijing’s military parade would not be “appropriate,” Chang said they could arrive at the same end by different means and that historical interpretations should be open to exchanges of opinions and reconciliation.

Despite Chang’s sugarcoating of Lien’s widely criticized China visit, a group of young Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) members and a number of pro-independence advocates staged a protest at the airport, accusing Lien of humiliating and selling out Taiwan.
The Lien clan has its business interests to look after, so grandpa Lien is heading off to Beijing. Solidarity translated some Storm media pieces on Ma's anger.

The Journalist published a piece saying that Ma had blocked Wang Jin-pyng from the Presidential candidacy and wrested the KMT from current Chairman Eric Chu, forcing ideologue Hung Hsiu-chu on the KMT as his candidate, as many of us had deduced. Solidarity translated:
But Chu’s envisioned KMT was completely at odds with the party-state framework established by Ma Ying-jeou, where the party is an auxiliary organ of the government. Because Chu’s party and Ma’s government were at odds, Chu never had the last word. The true power was still behind the scenes, in the hands of “the party member with the greatest political authority,” President Ma. Policy was still decided by the Presidential Office and Executive Yuan, so it was unsynchronized with Chu’s party’s proposals. Although Chu was the chairman, he did not have the slightest influence over policymaking. It was just too difficult for the KMT to turn over a new leaf. There was no chance for “Chu’s path” to be taken.
That's good news, because with Ma running things the KMT will fade that much faster...

Speaking of fading, Solidarity also had some poll numbers out of TISR. Recall that TISR was originally the Global Views polling center, which allegedly the KMT forced to shut down when its polls found that Tsai Ing-wen was leading Ma in the fall of 2011 in the run-up to the 2012 election. TISR, which is not a pro-Green organization, has the KMT's Hung Hsiu-chu with a mere 12.7% support among voters, with Tsai at 37% and Soong at 19%. This is in line with other polls. For example, a KMT internal poll had her at 18%, while the Liberty Times had Hung at 12.7%, with Tsai at 45%.

Hung's fade into irrelevance is leading to constant rumors that the KMT is going to replace her. But with Ma in charge, that isn't going to happen. FTV English News reports on this (video). Hung responded to the rumors of her imminent political demise with her trademarked China-flavored ideological bombast:
“Do you know how many times Sun launched insurrections against the Qing Dynasty before he finally succeeded? How could the ROC have been established if he had given up after just a single failure?” she said.
Solidarity also highlighted that the TISR poll said 50% of the people want independence "no matter what." Note also that only 17.6% support annexing Taiwan to China -- just 3.8% strongly support. That's Hung's diehard base: 3.8% of the population.

A candidate can be changed and registered in time for the election until the last week in November.

More telling is the data breakout, where Tsai is actually up 3% among independent voters, while Soong fell and Hung barely has any independent support. Soong also fell among Green voters, meaning that his ability to draw centrist voters is collapsing as everyone is reminded who he really is (note the slide from 24% support in June to below 20% now). I expect that his support will continue to gently glide downward. Again, Soong polled as high as 10% in the 2012 election before crashing at below 3%. In the party favorability index the DPP is also trending slightly upward. Back in June the NCCU election studies center was showing falling KMT party identification coupled with rising DPP. Can't wait to see their Sept numbers.

All signs are green at the moment...
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Tommy said...

By now, Lien is a side-show. It must console/irritate the Chinese that he is the best they could get to repeat their desired version of history. There is nothing like trotting out a washed-up has-been to support your side. Poor CCP, forced to back a pony that is not even in the race.

Anonymous said...

Re: Lien's speech, it just exemplifies what an out of touch doofus he is. When he makes these types of remarks:

"The citizens on both sides of the strait have the same culture and ancestors, and they both belong to the Chinese People. They are part of the same family, and are related to each other in the same way hands and feet>are.

I have to wonder, what about the Vietnamese or Philippine brides? Not to mention the westerners that give up their passports to become ROC citizens or the Aboriginals. WTF Lien, haven't you realized that Taiwan is more than just Han descendants. translation

an angry taiwanese said...

watch out! kim pu-chong is back to work in presidential palace, as advisor (資政)this time.
i believe the ma-kim pair is cooking some witch soup for the election.