A poll in which 30% of respondents don't answer isn't very useful.
UDN editorialized on the situation a few days ago:
President Ma Ying-jeou was campaigning around rural areas when he accidentally found out that a fire had erupted in his backyard -- James Soong's tiny People First Party (PFP) -- which used to be a solid part of the ruling KMT-led "pan-blue" camp -- has vowed to win enough seats to form a legislative caucus and even Soong himself has hinted that he might enter the presidential race.The issue for UDN is Ma's campaign, not his policies. But UDN vastly exaggerates; there aren't 2 million PFP votes out there; the last time the PFP got that many votes was in 2001; by 2004 this had fallen to 1.3 million. In the most recent election the KMT recouped almost all the votes, seats, and politicians it had lost to the PFP. Disaffected Blues might vote Soong, but surely everyone must know a Soong vote is a wasted vote. Perhaps the China Times poll above shows he'll attract merely the anti-Ma Blue votes that wouldn't have gone for Ma anyway.
Unfortunately, Ma has not perceived that the real problem facing him is not the PFP defection. Rather, it is the issue of political wisdom and campaigning schemes.
Ma has not perceived the crisis that he is losing the trust of some two million "pan-blue" voters, who, according to the PFP, are wavering in their support, providing nutrition to milk the PFP's defection bid.
Another Ma crisis is that he has spent most of his time on "low politics," or economic and social welfare issues at the grassroots level, instead of "high politics" that relate to political power and morale on the national level.
He may not know that he is risking losing the votes of some two million potential waverers, who include the "social elite," opinion leaders and his former staunch supporters.
Instead of worrying about the price of rice wine, Ma should spend more time sorting out why he is losing the trust of swing voters.
Soong is not Ma's problem. Ma's problem is that he does not know what exactly disappointed voters are fretting about with regard to his presidency.
The DPP released poll results this week that have Ma and Tsai neck and neck at 49.9 and 50.1. Believe at your own risk.
- UN serves Chinese expansionism: UNESCAP lists Taiwan ECFA as Taiwan, POC
- China is now Brazil's biggest trade partner. Meanwhile the US is going to go into another recession. Great policy move there, Washington, way to look forward. That will really help us curb China's influence.
- Japan criticizes China's completely unnecessary naval build up, Beijing lashes out.
- The KMT's policy at present is to subsume Taiwan's culture into Chinese culture as "Chinese culture with Taiwanese characteristics." It is also attempting to absorb Taiwanese heroes into the KMT Whig history narrative.
- Russian permafrost to shrivel by a third by 2050 -- releasing all that trapped methane.
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