Still favoring boys over girls....

Richard Saunders took this photo and wrote on Facebook:

Advert on a Hualien to Taitung train advising pregnant women to reject undergoing gender identification of their fetus (having a baby girl was traditionally considered much less desireable than a boy). I'm flabbergasted that in modern Taiwan anyone still needs reminding that having a baby girl is a wonderful event.

Women slightly outnumber men in Taiwan, but like everything in Taiwan, there is a regional imbalance that favors Taipei:

The sex ratio — the number of males per 100 females — was at its lowest in Taipei at 92.1 and at its highest in outlying Lienchiang County at 133.6.

Good to see the government out addressing that.
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Dearth of a Nation

Taiwan's gov't has fired the latest salvo in its determination to get Taiwanese to have more babies: a US$1.3 billion subsidy scheme:

Under the plan, parents will be entitled to a minimum monthly subsidy of 3,000 Taiwan dollars for each newborn up until two years old and an annual schooling stipend of 30,000 Taiwan dollars for children aged two to six years.

The government hopes to encourage the public to have more children during the Year of the Dragon in 2012, which is considered the most auspicious year in the Chinese zodiac and a favourite birth sign for children, it added.

Government data showed that fewer babies were born in 2010, which was a Year of the Tiger, as some parents were anxious to avoid having children under one of the fiercest signs in Chinese astrology.

.......

The average number of children Taiwanese women have fell to 1.03 in 2009. In general, every woman needs to give birth to 2.1 children on average, merely to prevent the population from shrinking.

Subsidies for everyone! Given that the costs of child rearing really kick in after elementary school, a fact known to everyone, it doesn't seem likely that a total subsidy of less than NT$200,000 is going to have much effect on the birthrate.

A few days ago the Taipei Times had a feature on a talk given by a local expert:

Hsueh said that 20 to 30 years ago, most women gave birth when they were between 25 and 29 years old, but nowadays people tend to get married later or not all, causing women to postpone getting pregnant until they are between 30 and 34 years old. Statistics show that only 43 percent of women between 25 and 34 years old are married. The decline in the marriage rate is much more obvious than in other countries.

The expert called for a government plan to change the attitude of young people. Attitude isn't really the problem....

The Wiki entry on Aging population has a useful summary:

Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population ageing in the near future. In these regions within twenty years many countries will face a situation where the largest population cohort will be those over 65 and average age will be approaching 50....

Most of the developed world (with the notable exception of the United States) now has sub-replacement fertility levels, and population growth now depends largely on immigration together with population momentum which arises from previous large generations now enjoying longer life expectancy.

"...largely depends on immigration..." It is not a coincidence that countries that are remarkably uninviting toward immigrants (Japan!) are facing severe aging issues. The real problem with Taiwan isn't the birthrates of its women but the way it defines who can be a citizen of Taiwan -- someone with the "right blood" only. If Taiwan had a sensibly open immigration policy, it could attract talented foreigners whose children would be certifiably Taiwanese. In a sense we already have such a policy with the children of foreign brides....

Another issue that no one in power seems to have grappled with is that Taiwan is really a not an attractive place to raise children, especially relative to income. Pollution, safety issues, school pressure -- there is a total lack of kid-oriented culture in Taiwan, with few activities and institutions aimed at expanding and growing the minds and bodies of children. Taiwan puts too much emphasis on producing more rosy countables -- because Taiwanese are so obsessed with their world rankings -- and ignores difficult to count things like livability and child growth opportunities. Focusing more on livability for kids would increase the desire for people to raise their young here. It would also give Taiwan an edge in the industry-attraction sweepstakes against places like Korea and China -- tech types prefer areas that have rich cultural and recreational options.

UPDATE: M adds insight in the comments:

However, it is also important to remember that Taiwan's birth rate among married couples is not particularly low. The main problem is that people are choosing not to get married at all. Maybe they are too busy working overtime to get round to it. A more friendly environment for adults (and in particular adult workers)is also required. In contrast older workers are much better looked after - once you have been in a job for 20 or 20 years you can get 4-5 weeks of paid leave.

This article buttresses M's point:

According to Business Weekly, the main reason for not bearing children is due to financial concerns. Even taking away the income factor, the online survey also showed only 20 percent of those who earn a high monthly income of NT70,000 (US$2,200) would like to have children in five years while 38 percent would not follow through because they feel they are too old.

The survey concluded that young Taiwanese couples who can bear children often do not, due to a fear of the financial burden, while those on higher incomes can no longer conceive children due to their age.

This article from last year makes the opposite case.

This is why the government is now actively encouraging young people to get married and have children, hoping to lower the percentage of unmarried females aged 45-49 to 18%, from 19% now, and to boost the number of children born to each married couple to 1.4, from the current 1.1.

Since the projected avg birth rate for all females this year is 0.94, it doesn't seem that married couples are much different. Females, married or single, are just not having kids, for all the reasons M alluded to. I wonder how much a role hidden employer discouragement plays.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Throwing open the floodgates

If it were deliberate irony, it would be unbearable. But it is strategy, not irony. From an article on letting independent Chinese tourists in....

Taiwan is set to accept independent Chinese visitors, Minister of Transportation and Communications Mao Chi-kuo said Monday.

Speaking at a legislative session, Mao said the Cabinet had determined in principle that Taiwan would open its doors to three categories of Chinese visitors -- tourists, business visitors and visitors to outlying islands -- but that details of the opening were still in the pipeline.

Management would differ for these three categories, Mao said in response to questions raised by two Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers.

Details would be publicized in the near future, he said, but for example, management of general Chinese tourists would be strictest, and would include restrictions on the number allowed to enter Taiwan each day.

So...they are going to let in more businesspeople and tourists. And then there is this from the other day on the rise of Chinese prostitutes in Taiwan....

Recently, in accordance with government policy to allow Chinese to visit Taiwan for leisure and business, more people are arriving as tourists or businesspeople, but just staying and working illegally, the official said.

In March, more than 100 Chinese nationals were caught working as prostitutes in the landmark Tower 85 in Kaohsiung.

Further investigation found that all of the women came into the country as businesspeople.

“It costs only about 30,000 Chinese yuan [US$4,500] to get forged job certificates and forged invitations,” a Kaohsiung police officer said. “So a lot of [Chinese] who don’t even know how to read and write could become chief executives of some department store or real estate groups in China and come to Taiwan for ‘business.’”

..............

NIA officials said that more Chinese choose to come into Taiwan as businesspeople or tourists because it’s much harder to check their identity than through a fake marriage.

Police officers said that, although the government has relaxed entry regulations for Chinese nationals, “they don’t care if there is sufficient manpower to deal with the change.”

But we're going to let in more Chinese as prostitutes and illegal workers businesspeople and independent tourists. These will be strictly regulated, at first. Like the students from China will be strictly limited, initially. And the ECFA concessions will favor Taiwan, in the early stages. And the President assures us there will be no political talks, at the moment.

ADDED: A reader reminds that in Taiwan new laws are being proposed to allow one-woman brothels. Sort of like the Hong Kong SAR.

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Slogans to Encourage Childbirth

The Ministry of the Interior announced its 20 winners for slogans to encourage Taiwanese to have kids. As my friend Dan Bloom pointed out, there are no slogans in any of the local languages, just Mandarin. I tried my hand at quickie translations of a few of these with their awful puns*, feel free to contribute/correct in the comments:

多生寶貝,寶貝台灣
Bear a few more treasures, treasure Taiwan

人生要美好,養兒育女不可少
Life must be beautiful, children reared cannot be few

老爸老媽我準備好了,今晚就看你們表現了!
Mom and Dad, I'm ready! Tonight you'll see the results!

生個寶貝，幸福加倍！
One kid multiplies fortune.

圓滿人生，就是要生。
To fulfill life, bring forth life.

有子有女〝好〞幸福
A son and daughter are "good" luck. [a visual pun in Chinese]

「孩」好，有你。
Lucky we had you!

一〝生〞幸福！
One birth is good fortune!

孩子到位，幸福歸隊
A child joined is fortune rejoined.

生!就對了!
Give birth! It's the right thing to do!

帥哥美女靠創造， 不生永遠看不到!!
Studs and babes must be made, if they're not born they'll never be seen!

好孕好運到！
A good pregnancy brings good luck!

有子有女就是「好」。
A son and daughter are "good" luck. [a visual pun in Chinese]

結婚,我願意! 生子,我樂意!
Marriage, I'm willing! Childbearing, I'm happy to!

幸福很簡單,寶貝一,二,三!!
Fortune is as easy as baby 1,2,3!!

孕釀~~下一個希望
Incubation -- the hope of the next generation

為愛而生
Give birth for love

孕味、乳味，最有女人味。
The taste of pregnancy, the aroma of milk, are the most womanly flavors

孩子~是我們最好的傳家寶。
Children are the best way of passing on our treasure

誠徵下一代！
Be the next generation! [?] UPDATE: It's "WANTED -- The Next Generation!" Thanks go to (D) in the comments.

The government seems unwilling to make the hard choices to lower the cost of child-rearing and education, give women more time off to have kids, support single-parenting, and so on. It looks an awful lot like yet another of those policies that give the appearance of doing something without the reality of it.

*Not recommended for reading while sober

UPDATE: Some great corrections in the comments.
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Taiwan has world's lowest fertility rate

The Population Reference Bureau put out a report that garnered some attention in Taiwan today. It observes of the island's Total Fertility Rate (TFR):

Asia is projected to add the most people by mid-century, with an increase of 1.3 billion over its 2009 population of 4 billion. This population growth is anticipated despite substantial declines in birth rates in many Asian countries. Today, China and India account for nearly two-thirds of the region’s population, and in 2050 their share will only be slightly less. But it will be India that will grow substantially by 2050. China’s population size will decline well before 2050 if current projections hold true. Should China change its “one-child” policy, a different picture could emerge.

Asia is also home to several other countries with very low TFRs. Taiwan currently has the world’s lowest, at 1.0 children per woman, while South Korea has a TFR of 1.2. These countries have expressed concern over population decline and extreme aging in their societies. In Japan, the official population projection anticipates that 40 percent of the population could be 65 and older by 2050.

India to overtake China, too. A planet full of primate breeders, as if the world had no physical limits. A powerpoint presentation on population trends is also available, more focused on the US. The data sheet is here, note the geographic distribution of child poverty rates in the US (Red States, of course). According to their data, Taiwan's net rate of increase is just 0.2%, and it is expected the island's population will be 2 million less in 2050 if current trends continue. Of course, they will all be crowded on the tip of Yushan since the island will be underwater at that point....

Speaking more seriously, one wonders if this plummeting fertility rate represents the population bumping up against the limits of the local strategy of educating the heck out of their children, a strategy that has become increasingly expensive, perhaps too expensive to sustain. Or is it the fact that so many women are choosing not to get married, or to get married very late and have very few children? Or what? Inquiring minds want to know...

Kudos to PRB: none of this "Taiwan, province of China" bullshit.
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